CR,
Just to be safe, you might want to consider increasing the vertical scale of that vacancy rate chart to 40%.
I sure hope Cheers is OK.
There's a moon over Boston
I had the blues but I lost 'em
They just sort of drifted away
The river forgives me
Falling for your wrong suspecting face
1 in 5 cubicle excess, i guess
Boston is hitting a demographic wall more reminiscent of Eastern Europe than anything.
Testing the new comment system and my awesome, awesome new sig.
Go Red Sox (in honor of Opening Day)!
Ouch, the Year Over Year change for Q1 appears to be a 386% increase in tech sector layoffs...
Report: Tech-sector jobs hit hard in Q1
The nation’s technology sector could be headed for months of heavy job losses following a first quarter that saw the highest level of planned cuts in more than half a decade, according to a new report from outplacement firm Challenger Gray and Christmas Inc.
The Chicago-based firm in a report released Monday said the sector logged 84,217 cuts from January through March, up from 17,345 in the same period a year ago. While that pales in comparison to the job-hemorrhaging seen during the dot-com collapse early in the decade, it’s the highest quarterly total since the past three months of 2002, the firm said.
http://www.bizjournals.com/sacramento/stories/2009/04/06/daily7.html
what's hoops huffing today?
Damnit, it's cutting off my sig!
-----
The hoopajoop, which is divided into two halves, each of which shorts the other, can climb to the sky in value in much the same way that two individuals can climb to the heavens by sequentially standing on each other's shoulders, or, in the case of the short fund, by both agreeing in advance to dig a hole at the bottom of a hole the other has dug, and then borrowing on the strength of the hole's anticipated depth to finance more shovels.
THIS IS TOO AWESOME OF A SIG TO GET SCRUNCHED
good news! should rally the market tomorrow!
Hoop nice sig !
More inflation in the things we need. Local utility thought the upfront costs of wiring subdivisions would be paid back by ratepayers. They now have 14000 inactive connections, so existing customers are getting hit with a 13% rate increase:
Sacramento residents dismayed as SMUD plans to hike rate
Last week, SMUD officials announced a plan to raise customer rates 13 percent over the next 18 months. The two-stage hike – a 9.5 percent hike comes Sept. 1 – would be the nonprofit power provider's second in two years.
Fully implemented, the average residential customer's monthly bill would increase $8, officials said.
A decline in power usage – the result of customer conservation, retail bankruptcies and utility disconnections – is just one of the justifications for the rate increase, but it's definitely part of the equation, SMUD spokeswoman Elisabeth Brinton said.
In the utility business those are called "stranded costs," and they linger for years, she said. "The fixed costs remain fixed."
Some of those fixed costs were the power lines, transformers and other infrastructure installed for thousands of homes built during the Sacramento housing boom, as well as to thousands of homes that were planned but not built as the housing market went from red-hot to ice-cold.
The utility is required to provide power connections once developers get a final go-ahead for construction. In many cases, construction stopped after SMUD put underground connections in place.
Clustered throughout SMUD's 900-square-mile service area are 14,000 unused connections, Brinton said.
give me a piece of that hole, hoops, AAA tranche please
Red Sox game rained out.
I blame Obama for this, somehow.
To hell with it, I'm going to do a ghetto signature by just pasting the goddamn thing.
-----
The hoopajoop, which is divided into two perfect halves, each of which shorts the other, can climb to the sky in value in much the same way that two individuals can climb to the heavens by sequentially standing on each other's shoulders, or, in the case of the short fund, by both agreeing in advance to dig a hole at the bottom of a hole the other has dug, and then borrowing on the strength of the hole's anticipated depth to finance more shovels.
Max,
I thought SMUD was saying that they had to increase the rates on residential because commerial and industrial use was down and someone had to pick up the slack? If the issue is dead or non-income generating new infastructure, then I'd hate to be a PGE customer.
Oh Ipooooddddiiiuuuusss.... Where aaarrrrreeeee you?
Is the hoocoodanode developer an apple or google alum? This feels like a beta version of good software, instead of a final release of crapware, bloatware, shareware, or adware.
I am soooo tired of the phrases invented to make things more obscure and less threatening: negative absorption, my ass. higher vacancy rate says all that needs to be said.
If i had to guess, I'd guess negative absorption meant using plastic diapers on a newborn. or something equally silly.
Obama picks winners:
http://www.hulu.com/watch/66318/saturday-night-live-presidential-address
I've just been busily composting for the last two weeks, gathering organic material and letting it break down. It's pretty amazing, and soothing, to watch how things degrade and turn into rich organic hummus for the next generation of plants to enjoy. This is all part of a broader project I have to rehabilitate the soil in my parent's house. I've also just bought some emmer wheat, some rye, and some alfalfa to plant on the site, to help enrich the soil and hopefully make it fertile, rather than the hardpan clay that's there now.
-----
The hoopajoop is divided into two perfect halves, each of which shorts the other. It can climb to the sky in value in much the same way that two individuals can climb to the heavens by sequentially standing on each other's shoulders, or, in the case of the short fund, by both agreeing in advance to dig a hole at the bottom of a hole the other has dug, and then borrowing on the strength of the hole's anticipated depth to finance more shovels.
Rob, what demographic are you saying Boston has? I'm not so up with the Eastern Europe demo.
Hoops - what are you using as a composting container?
Hoopa,
Nice sig, but I'll be tired of it by the third day.
The utility is required to provide power connections once developers get a final go-ahead for construction. In many cases, construction stopped after SMUD put underground connections in place.
Clustered throughout SMUD's 900-square-mile service area are 14,000 unused connections, Brinton said.
Man, a vacant, undeveloped field, with the power and utilities connections already put into place, bought in bankruptcy court from a builder... what a perfect place to homestead.
-----
The hoopajoop is divided into two perfect halves, each of which shorts the other. It can climb to the sky in value in much the same way that two individuals can climb to the heavens by sequentially standing on each other's shoulders, or, in the case of the short fund, by both agreeing in advance to dig a hole at the bottom of a hole the other has dug, and then borrowing on the strength of the hole's anticipated depth to finance more shovels.
Hoops - what are you using as a composting container?
What I've done is salvaged some galvanized aluminum fencing. I took the fencing, put it into a big hoop (a joop) and threw in manure, making like a rounded pen. When I want to turn it, a buddy and I just lift up the fencing and move it over, then shovel the stuff back into the fence. Cost: $0.
I might end up making a classic three pen setup if I end up getting more land to spread it on.
Let me summarize these statistics posts for the next 5 years:
Fill_in_with_your_region_city_state Pick_your_statistic reaches New High_Low.
Yours In Communism,
Comrade Kilgore Trout
I thought SMUD was saying that they had to increase the rates on residential because commerial and industrial use was down and someone had to pick up the slack?
In the article, they said it's all of the above., but a large part is there are less people paying for the fixed costs. The pie is bigger, and there's less customers, so everybody has to take a bigger slice.
Pardon me, galvanized steel wire fencing. Like chicken wire, only square. About an inch and a half sized squares in it. Stuff falls out to a limited degree, but who cares, it's well ventillated. I might have to switch to something better if the summer heat dehydrates my scumpile.
So far I've got an awesome fungal growth inside that shoots up a steamy stream of spores whenever I turn it. It feels wholesome and fine to do this thing.
Sounds about like our dirt Hoops. We have red clay or sand, take your pick or mix and match! I do mostly container gardening.
"It feels wholesome and fine to do this thing."
You would probably enjoy some of E.B White's essays written after he left Manhattan for a farm in Maine...
Rob, what demographic are you saying Boston has? I'm not so up with the Eastern Europe demo.
Getting old fast, losing its traditional infusion of high income youth, compounding ethnic translocation. Part of this is Richard Florida's silly "creative class" and more is lower class infill as the productive class vacates.
NYC is next.
hoops, you forgot the sig
Sorry but opening day at Fenway is on Tuesday
"Oh Ipooooddddiiiuuuusss.... Where aaarrrrreeeee you? "
Somewhere else, thank Glod.
I think the signature phrase for 2009 will be "worse than expected." Expect to see "worse than expected" in every story involving economic or employment or business stats for the next 12 months.
The real story, of course, is _why_ nobody expected it to be so bad. And who those "expectors" were.
Finally, my test comment.
And nothing better to start it off than reading about a steamy stream of spores. Kinda like a G20 press release.
Thanks, Ken, for all of the work - and also to CRBot and yagij for the effort as well.
Go Red Sox
Did anyone see where Monster Cable sued the Red Sox over the use of "Green Monster." While I understand that a trademark owner has to protect the mark from becoming generic, I don't think any reasonable person would find source confusion...
/rant off
"worse than expected" pessimism that is more optimistic than the conditions warrant
Ummm....rained out I suspect. Oh well 
The sig IS long, so I'll use it sporadically.
sporadically: the spores have got to you?
Outsider. He was referencing the fact that the young generation is leaving. All the brains are bailing on beantown. To expensive to live etc. Mass has a negative pop. growth rate which is going to cause pain for the elders as they retire etc.
que scone ,
.......
OT
An interesting take; This guys says that the cause of our current problems is consumer debt, not all the other crap we've been hearing:
http://online.wsj.com/article/SB123897612802791281.html
(or what Le Dawg said, missed the comment!)
In case anyone is wondering who ipodius is I saved a few of his quotes since I KNEW he would be eating them later.
You guys have done it to me. I actually agree with OJoe. Crisis averted, shallow downturn, orderly unwinding with PE ratios returning to normal over the next 2 quarters as forward earning aren't going to be what people think. Business as usual.
ipodius | 04.03.08 - 2:49 pm | #
ipodius writes:
i'm going to say 2 to 3 quarters doom, based on the current numbers and the fact that it's a coin toss whether q1 was positive or negative on gdp growth. and it's cyclic. about 6 to nine months from now, people will be sick of the gloom and doom, oil and commodities will have come down, business will invest for the next phase, hiring will pick up, and we'll generally start to rub the dark from our collective eyes.
Also, do not forget that we have a presidential election during which the president with the lowest ratings ever will be replaced. this alone, no matter who is elected btw, will have an enormous psych impact on people in general and they will become more optimistic. so by next spring, things will be picking up again as everyone is done with the doom and looking for what's next. that looking will cause what's next.
ipodius | 04.26.08 - 6:35 pm | #
My recession call is shallow and longish. So far, all of this bears that out. There is nothing new pointing to anything approaching depression-level numbers at all or even close. Even the credit markets seem to be greased a bit more, as deals are getting done.
ipodius | 05.15.08 - 3:06 pm | #
Bonds now 3.72 on 30y, probably to get back to 3.50 within week
Currency alternates days now losing between .5 and 2%.
State endorsed specuratcheting of bonds/currency a sign of the throes.
More debt to issue as announced today. Yay!
Financial desperation makes desperate measures seem prudent. Spanish attacking British Fleet with Drake in 1587 at Cadiz. Hoping to loot the busyness of the Brits. Failed.
Bonaparte selling Lousiana Purchase.
France adopting John Law's "miraculous" fiat system and the Mississippi bubble.
Germany striking in the Ruhr, defaulting on the Versailles treaty impositions, Beer Hall putsch and Reichstag's fire.
Usually there is some galvanizing "event" to unify a nation, justify a conflict, divert attention from the public purse, and underscore a desperate last effort at speculative bubbles upon the land and structures of the sovereign.
Then implosion.
Have a nice day.
Inhaling those spoors might be a not-good thing.
Red Clay would be an improvement to our dirty sand. After years of adding bagged composted manure, topsoil, milorganite, and coffee grounds and wood chips, I have a small
area in front and back which has halfway decent soil. The fiends who sold us the house put these nasty little rocks in the back along with the sand. Tons of them it would seem.
The only manure I have is feline, and trust me there's nothing you would want to put that on.
oil and commodities will have come down ipodius
He got part of it right!
LOL!
(sorry couldnt help myself!)
I thought baseball was over: Japan beat Korea. Is there some losers' bracket, like the NIT ?
anony@2:08--don't think the countertrend rally has legs, eh?
From Bob Dobbs:
I think the signature phrase for 2009 will be "worse than expected."
Hey, thats not so bad!
Gates unveils broad changes in Pentagon spending
"Programs across the military would be cut back, including many big-budget items that military analysts had predicted were on the chopping block -- including the Army's next generation of armored vehicles, the Air Force's F-22 fighter plane and the Navy's next generation of destroyers and cruisers."
Whoa, ain't no way that is going to happen. That is some prime AAA rated pork Gates is taking a shot at. The Congress will not be amused.
Anything called SMUD has got to screw things up.
MUAHAHAHAHA!
I just found the unadjusted retail sales monthly numbers with unadjusted Year Over Year changes!
"At last my hand is whole again!"
or what Le Dawg said...
Watch it or rent_to_own will start stalking you too.
Oh Ipooooddddiiiuuuusss.... Where aaarrrrreeeee you?
I suspect he still posts here but he unloaded that handle a long time ago. About the same time his bottom call of 11200 went bust.
Boston is one of my favorite cities. It's compact, walkable, complex, oozes culture.
But it's too darned cold.
I'd love to have a little summer place overlooking the park. and so would everyone else, I guess.
energyecon,
feel free to elaborate on the mad scientist laughter
testing ...
11200--sorta sounds like the bronze age these daze
oil and commodities will have come down ipodius
He got part of it right!
LOL!
Yes, but I don't think he thought the onset of a deflationary depression would be the cause.
I like it that when I post it automatically refreshes.
Also, I like the little green bars that say how lt's going, so even if it take a little long,
I can see something is happening and do not despair.
"...what are you using as a composting container?"
..............a cow.
Sorry but opening day at Fenway is on Tuesday -Woodie
Confirmed, postponed due to weather:
http://www.google.com/hostednews/ap/article/ALeqM5guPVxmSxYTBpIp73W8zqKl...
Hey nades!
Also, there is this nifty book called 1491, which, inter alia, describes how the Amazon Bason (sp?) inhabitants, had, over thousands of years greatly improved their topsoil around their towns. At the rate I'm going, it would take that long to improve my topsoil. I suppose Fla will sink into the sea long before that.
Heyas EHP,
Was struggling to get the retail numbers unadjusted, finally found them though the unadjusted numbers do not seem to be available in a data download...but ever since the "retail spending was up unexpectedly" story for Feb has been out I wanted to check out the reports of one of the largest adjustment factors ever used in achieving that result.
But then I found a straight up, unadjusted Year Over Year change in % entry in Table 2B...all that Month Over Month change is a distraction, this is the real deal (as it gets in .gov data releases).
BTW, chugged through a bunch of the data on NFP changes from prelim to advance to final - those clowns are all over the board - though definite trend down atm. If I get my act together this weekend I will get a decent plot up on that and the retail spending.
"I suspect he still posts here but he unloaded that handle a long time ago."
Ipodious had a lucifer-esque pathological hatred of continental europe and that bias would surely manifest itself.
Cool sig. Black :star.
Well my text smiley wasn't replaced. How do you do that.
oh, and the mad scientist thing is really working for me since I took my kid to go see "Monsters vs Aliens"...
Also, I like the little green bars that say how lt's going, so even if it take a little long,
I can see something is happening and do not despair. - Lawyerliz
So wouldn't we all but world economies don't work like that. Besides I'm not sure we want to see the bar going backwards right now.
@ Hoopajoops and other gardeners...
Relevant information for the coming back-to-earth movement:
Best soil amendment is horse manure, preferably from one of the upscale hobbyhorse stables. Horses also have an amazingly low rate of feed conversion, so the residue is highest in residual fiber.
Weekend riders feed their animals only the best (non-weed) hay, unlike dairy farmers who feed their critters whatever is cheapest (that tends to have a mixture of weeds you've never seen before). Cow manure leads to interesting vegetation, some of which is toxic, in your vegetable garden.
For hard soil, rent an electric jackhammer, and hire teenager whose already dulled his hearing.
We (not all, but many, more than 3 i think) are subprimers, and soon will be sub-soilers.
for those playing along at home, energyecon is talking about (ctrl+f, 'Table 2B') this: http://www.census.gov/marts/www/marts_current.html
also look at Table 3 to see the survey error increasing, as expected at a turning point in the economy. The census bureau is a lot more honest than the bureau of labor statistics, at least in my mind
Sand is rotten soil, except for carrots, but at least it doesn't get hard at the top.
Well if the goddess did provide a backwards moving little green bar, at least we'd know that we were doing the wrong thing.
My crystal ball, which was dead clear in the fall of '07. is now totally cloudy.
"At the rate I'm going, it would take that long to improve my topsoil."
Thanx, LawLiz........You know, if you have a dairy near you, they will usually deliver fresh manure (by the dump load) for free. That and the sand/clay you have in SoFla, and you have killer growing soil! Just warn the neighbors of the smell that'll stick around for a month. My neighbors are as much rednecks as us, so the 12-loads we got weren't a problem. If I were still in SoFla I'd time it for the fall - less daily rains IIRC.
Sand is rotten soil
actually soil is rotten, sand isn't, that's the problem
Sand is rotten soil, except for carrots, but at least it doesn't get hard at the top.
lawyerliz
.
I'll trade your sand for my greasy clay, if I can have a little more sunshine, too.
"Cow manure leads to interesting vegetation, some of which is toxic, in your vegetable garden."
.....literally, bullshit!
if consumption stays at these levels, the government will need to boost spending by 25% (~$800bn)from last year to keep things at a 2-3% decline in nominal GDP assuming that the decline in private investment and net imports roughly offset each other
that's where juicy assumptions like auto sales jumping by 5mn extra sales annually (below 9mn annualized right now) are crucial. Odd that the government denied GM's restructuring plan on the basis of that specific sales optimism, yet is using it for their own GDP forecasts as related to the budget
No clay here, that was Kristina. Merritt Island is a big ole sand dune. They were growing some cows within walking distance, but the last time I went by it was alas turning into a development.
There are some spots on MI, which is very long and skinnies down where the dunes are 50-60 feet high. Or more. Nobody but me seems to ask themselves what happened to make them get so high. The center of Fla used to be some islands, and you find some hills there too. Within historical eras, 'cause Indians were living there.
My granddad would dump horse manure in the tomato spot every year, and boy would it stink for a while. Great tomatoes. Baltimore.
My neighbors are retired airline pilots and nasa folk. Don't know what they'd make of the
smell. My gardening ambitions are nowhere near yours!
And I've said this before, but if there is a juicy tax thingy, that may move the hub (no sex here) to buy a new car to replace his 11 year old Saturn. Which is, still rolling and not needing much in the way of repairs.
of course that neoclassical economic thinking ignores credit, and it's power to decrease consumption and investment in an unwind. which means the government needs to increase spending by even more to get ahead of the credit unwind, and make a last ditch attempt at resuscitating the money multiplier. The $787bn over 5 year stimulus plan is quaint
still don't really see the recession in the streets, but then again most of us were early when it came to spotting problems with banks and insurers, or developers...
Soil Amendments [ in general ]
http://www.ext.colostate.edu/Pubs/Garden/07235.html
Improving Clay Soil:
http://www.finegardening.com/how-to/articles/improving-clay-soils.aspx
Sandy Soil:
http://forums.gardenweb.com/forums/load/alabgard/msg071811301275.html
http://www.plaistedcompanies.com/Amendment%20for%20Sandy%20Soil%20sheet.pdf
Liz, in line with the Amazon reference and your coastal sands:
http://www.eprida.com/home/index.php4
The word for 2009 will be "unthinkable." As in, "the unthinkable has happened." By Xmas, we'll hear it every day on TV from panicky newscasters.
Jim
that's what you pay for obtaining an MBA, all the jargon to make you sound like you know what you're talking about...