Comments for "Comparison: OECD and "More Adverse" Scenarios"
Nemo says:
I thought the OECD was some kind of dictionary.
Nemo Tue Mar 31 18:17:15 2009 CDT #
CRbot says:
This comment thread has been HALO-IZED by CRbot.
http://realize.org/cr/halokit.php?halourl=http://www.haloscan.com/comments/calculatedrisk/6361206285005314960
CRbot Tue Mar 31 18:19:45 2009 CDT #
Nemo says:
And you can take that to the bank.
Nemo Tue Mar 31 18:21:17 2009 CDT #
Max says:
My doctor said I have OECD. I can't stop thinking about it.
Max Tue Mar 31 18:23:22 2009 CDT #
REBear says:
What happens to the deficit? Not that anyone really cares.
REBear Tue Mar 31 18:23:35 2009 CDT #
nades says:
"more adverse" is the new black.....
this doesn't end well......
nades Tue Mar 31 18:25:07 2009 CDT #
Jas says:
--
I realize that dopes will keep listening to those who keep revising the forecasts down every month, or every quarter, while there is no way to avoid the Greater Depression based on what has already transpired.
Rogue economists always believe that they can manipulate the economies to lead to desired outcomes when their manipulations are precisely what make things worse for the future. Finally, that future arrives and can't be manipulated anymore. Bernanke is a frikin economics moron with big ego and evil mind. He is too stupid to figure out that his machinations can’t work. Down with manipulators!
Jas
Jas Tue Mar 31 18:29:10 2009 CDT #
EvilHenryPaulson says:
Depends on what the definition of 'baseline' and 'adverse' are
EvilHenryPaulson Tue Mar 31 18:30:03 2009 CDT #
REBear says:
http://www.europac.net/report/reports/report_faber.pdf
"and when we do start recovery, interest rates will rise and inflationary preassure will be enormous"
>>
I guess this is the general concensus.
REBear Tue Mar 31 18:32:18 2009 CDT #
Anonymous says:
YOu don't hear much about the stress test anymore, do you? Doesn't sound like the administration really wants to know who is insolvent.
Anonymous Tue Mar 31 18:32:47 2009 CDT #
Blackhalo says:
"Doesn't sound like the administration really wants to know who is insolvent."
Oh, I bet they know. They just do not want us, or the ROW know, cause then, bankers in high places are in a world of hurt.
Parent Post
Blackhalo Tue Mar 31 18:58:05 2009 CDT #
MrM says:
The "more adverse" scenario is the new baseline.
Not if your last name is Geithner, in which case baseline pass is good enough.
MrM Tue Mar 31 18:33:54 2009 CDT #
8 Ball says:
I will say that the unemployment numbers and GDP drop will be much greater than forcasted for the rest of the year.
But what do I really know, I am just guessing.
8 Ball Tue Mar 31 18:35:14 2009 CDT #
Jas says:
--
You don't know how much better you are at guesing than rogue economists are at estimating and forecasting. If doctors had the same record for diognosis and prescriptions as economists most of them will be in jail. These people are morally bankrupt and shameless.
Jas
Parent Post
Jas Tue Mar 31 18:56:11 2009 CDT #
Anonymous says:
I prefer the term "less positive".
Anonymous Tue Mar 31 18:35:27 2009 CDT #
Broward Horne says:
"Doesn't sound like the administration really wants to know who is insolvent"
---------
No, the administration doesn't want to ADMIT who is insolvent, which is everybody. $12.8 trillion in bailout so far? When do the Martians land?
I'm sitting in Sarbucks listening to an MLM scamster suckering some poor sap into buying the perfunctoary 3 bottles of juice which grows into $20K per month when you sign up 5 people who each sign up 2 people, etc, etc.
I feel sick.
Broward Horne Tue Mar 31 18:37:40 2009 CDT #
Jas says:
--
"I feel sick."
Go see an economist and you will get a clean bill of health.
Jas
Parent Post
Jas Tue Mar 31 19:05:29 2009 CDT #
cd says:
Crispy,
you have been all over this closing, looks like no buyers so gottschalk is done..
http://www.inlandnewstoday.com/story.php?s=7554
cd Tue Mar 31 18:39:46 2009 CDT #
Sr. American Mugabe says:
Anecdotal, but funny. Construction buddy just told me he sold three unused excavators two months ago. Pulled the engines and, get this, scrapped them. They were worth 15k more as steel than as functional, money making peices of equipment.
I say unemployment punches 30% u-6, then 70% u-6. How is that for severe. Remember, historically at 25%, people burn things.......
Sr. American Mugabe Tue Mar 31 18:40:42 2009 CDT #
Lionel says:
http://zerohedge.blogspot.com/2009/03/gm-is-36-short-of-march-sales-quota.html
<h3 class="post-title entry-title" style="margin-top: 0.25em; margin-right: 0px; margin-bottom: 0px; margin-left: 0px; padding-top: 0px; padding-right: 0px; padding-bottom: 4px; padding-left: 0px; font-size: 140%; font-weight: normal; line-height: 1.4em; color: #000000;">GM Is 36% Short Of March Sales Quota</h3>
Posted by Tyler Durden at <abbr class="published" title="2009-03-31T18:43:00-04:00">6:43 PM</abbr>
<img src="http://4.bp.blogspot.com/_FM71j6-VkNE/SdKlqX_-0MI/AAAAAAAABoY/TzmpuNBdXhs/s200/aztek.jpg" border="0"/>This is not the way to avoid bankruptcy. GM, which will announce March car sales tomorrow, has told its dealers the company has achieved less than two-thirds of its retail sales goal for this month.
Lionel Tue Mar 31 18:40:44 2009 CDT #
Michael says:
Total vehicle sales for the year so far, 9.6m, 9.1m, 8.8m units. I see where this is going.
Parent Post
Michael Tue Mar 31 18:58:08 2009 CDT #
Werner says:
Aha, recovery in the second half of the year ! (like last year ! LOL )
Werner Tue Mar 31 18:42:19 2009 CDT #
Blackhalo says:
"Aha, recovery in the second half of the year !"
Third half. Or maybe fourth...
Parent Post
Blackhalo Tue Mar 31 18:54:58 2009 CDT #
Nemo says:
Remember, the stress test result is not "Pass or Fail"; it's "How much?"
Nemo Tue Mar 31 18:42:31 2009 CDT #
Hal says:
Yeah well maybe by year's end people will really get mad as hell and the country will tilt politically and socially WAY to the left. About time. Audiences for Rush and O'Reilly will disappear and some new really radical commentators will appear on cable.
Hal Tue Mar 31 18:43:39 2009 CDT #
Blackhalo says:
"About time. Audiences for Rush and O'Reilly will disappear and some new really radical commentators will appear on cable."
I think you sell shot Rush's ablity to rally the dittoheads around a bogus cause. I don't like the guy, but I give him credit for manipulating the gullible, like no other since P.T. Barnum.
Parent Post
Blackhalo Tue Mar 31 18:54:07 2009 CDT #
Michael says:
I really want to say something to you Hal, but I'm not gonna.
Parent Post
Michael Tue Mar 31 19:00:32 2009 CDT #
Guest says:
Yeah well maybe by year's end people will really get mad as hell and the country will tilt politically and socially WAY to the left. About time. Audiences for Rush and O'Reilly will disappear and some new really radical commentators will appear on cable.
Yes Hal, that will fix everything. Then we can be like Russia, China, Cuba, and a host of other leftist failures. Frankley, you're an idiot Hal.
Parent Post
Guest Tue Mar 31 20:40:52 2009 CDT #
Michael says:
Based on a factor by which they missed their previous forecasts, I should multiply their future predictions for unemployment by 2.
Michael Tue Mar 31 18:46:09 2009 CDT #
EvilHenryPaulson says:
Werner,
To be clear, I'm not teasing you this time: How do you think Germany will adapt to all of this? Mostly summarized by the US going from net importer to net exporter, with a domestic shift towards manufacturing.
EvilHenryPaulson Tue Mar 31 18:46:16 2009 CDT #
blueridge says:
CR is on a graphing binge today - don't burn yourself out, dude - there'll be years of downward trending graphing ahead of you!
blueridge Tue Mar 31 18:48:22 2009 CDT #
Ed S. says:
Is it me, or is there cognitive disconnect in the idea that we are in the worst economic downturn in the last 70 years but
a) going to be back to positive economic growth in 26 to 39 weeks
however
b) unemployment will continue to grow and be 10%+ in the US
Can somebody explain this to me?
Ed S. Tue Mar 31 18:48:29 2009 CDT #
Yalt says:
Is it me, or is there cognitive disconnect in the idea that we are in the worst economic downturn in the last 70 years but
a) going to be back to positive economic growth in 26 to 39 weeks
however
b) unemployment will continue to grow and be 10%+ in the US
Can somebody explain this to me?
The surprise would be if there wasn't a cognitive disconnect between:
(1) people who are paid (directly or indirectly) to sell you stuff, and
(2) people who are paid to get it right.
Parent Post
Yalt Tue Mar 31 19:11:12 2009 CDT #
nincompoop says:
What is the matter don't you trust the media?
Parent Post
nincompoop Tue Mar 31 19:20:05 2009 CDT #
Anonymous says:
Isn't the side bar label on the second graph supposed to state unemployment rate in lieu of what is there now?
Anonymous Tue Mar 31 18:50:14 2009 CDT #
Blackhalo says:
"The "more adverse" scenario is the new baseline."
There seems to be some disonance from, "mark to maturity," "the plan," and the "new baseline."
Blackhalo Tue Mar 31 18:51:42 2009 CDT #
Br\'er Dawg says:
CalculatedRisk on 3/31/2009 06:50:00 PM
The "more adverse" scenario is the new baseline.
Br'er Dawg says: Today, 7:16:51 AM PDT
• More adverse is the new baseline.
• We are all more adverse now.
It is heartening to see CR reads his comments.
Br\'er Dawg Tue Mar 31 18:52:11 2009 CDT #
TCA says:
Can somebody explain this to me?
Yes. You aren't thinking clearly. Remain where you are. Officials from the Ministry of Love are on their way.
TCA Tue Mar 31 18:52:56 2009 CDT #
Broward Horne says:
Holy cow, Mr Huckster is now touting the benefits of NOT having FDA approval for the health-nut scam juice.
Watch for an immienent outbreak of e-coli in the PNW soon.
Why is this happening?
Why is this government destroying their own country?
Is this the future? Everybody running around selling different kinds of vegetable juice to each other instead of selling houses to each other?
This is Dexter DopeBreed, reporting from MonkeyWorld, U.S.
Back to you, Jane.
Broward Horne Tue Mar 31 18:56:16 2009 CDT #
punditry says:
another entitlement program hard upon the rocks
As a result, the trust fund's annual surplus is forecast to all but vanish next year -- nearly a decade ahead of schedule
http://www.washingtonpost.com/wp-dyn/content/article/2009/03/30/AR2009033003291.html
punditry Tue Mar 31 18:56:41 2009 CDT #
Michael says:
I wonder how our Chinese investors are going to react to the SS news.
Parent Post
Michael Tue Mar 31 19:08:02 2009 CDT #
punditry says:
but the good news is , they can't borrow from it
and deprive the government of billions of dollars it had been counting on to help balance the nation's books.
oh yeah, they can just sell more bonds. ya think bo will be stumpin for the treasury tommorrow?
punditry Tue Mar 31 18:58:03 2009 CDT #
Br\'er Dawg says:
Note to energyecon from the previous thread(s). Yes, I am fully aware of the California budget issues. The $8b "shortfall" is actually assuming $2-$3b in nonexistent Fed stimulus and $7b in new voter approved taxes that are badly losing in the polls and $2.4-$3.2b in regular revenues that are not appearing. Don't even get me started on the $14b in not spending but really spending accounting tricks. CA has jumped the shark and will undoubtably become a ward of the Feds. If the US were smart they'd form 5-8 new States but unfortunately 3-5 of those would be typically mid-west conservative so forget it.
Br\'er Dawg Tue Mar 31 18:58:18 2009 CDT #
TCA says:
I'm moving to the first state that secedes.
TCA Tue Mar 31 19:01:10 2009 CDT #
Jas says:
--
Why, you wanna get killed by US troops?
Ja
Parent Post
Jas Tue Mar 31 19:15:10 2009 CDT #
RockyR says:
"I'm moving to the first state that secedes."
Texas it is for you! ;)
Parent Post
RockyR Tue Mar 31 19:31:16 2009 CDT #
tbgpalisades says:
The web means that our elected officials can no longer get away with their obfuscation, cronyism and even outright lies. Thank you CR.
tbgpalisades Tue Mar 31 19:02:55 2009 CDT #
Anonymous says:
Audiences for Rush and O'Reilly will disappear and some new really radical commentators will appear on cable.
I don't know-- the bewildered herd seems to like abusive, trice divorced, former drug addicts. I guess they can relate.
Anonymous Tue Mar 31 19:03:06 2009 CDT #
crispy and cole says:
CD - even the Chinese dont want our garbage retailers...another one bites the dust...more space for the CR National paint ball tournament
crispy and cole Tue Mar 31 19:04:00 2009 CDT #
MrM says:
Remember, the stress test result is not "Pass or Fail"; it's "How much?"
"Fail" is when the answer to "How much?" proves rather painful for the existing shareholders.
But the real issue IMO is this:
The stress test will show that in the more adverse scenario some banks will see their capital ratio drop below “well capitalized” levels. So they will be told to raise capital. However, private investors will know that the more adverse scenario is the real base case scenario, and in reality these banks may need more capital again. As a result, these investors will require substantial discounts. Precisely because the stress test is defined so optimistically, the investor reaction will be very skeptical. Lack of transparency and confidence does not help at all.
Besides, with the new nuclear option the Fed is asking the Congress about, everybody will be very cautious about buying into the bank equity.
Hence the desperate attempts by Citi and BofA to pump their share prices.
Of course, theoretically it might be all part of the big plan to force the nationalization, but it does look to me like the new version of grand Iraq strategies of the previous administration, that lay people simply could not appreciate.
MrM Tue Mar 31 19:04:49 2009 CDT #
Bob Seegar says:
Make no mistake about this market - it IS A REPEAT OF THE DEFLATIONARY BIG BAD BEAR MARKET OF THE EARLY 1930s...LOWER LOWS....FOLLOWED BY LOWER HIGHS...FOLLOWED BY LOWER LOWS.....UNTIL AN EVENTUAL "EXHAUSTION" BOTTOM WHERE KNOW ONE EVEN CARES TO BOTHER "CALLING A BOTTOM".
http://www.dshort.com/charts/bears/four-bears-large.gif
Watch and learn as next downward leg churns more and more folks into the maelstrom.
Bob Seegar Tue Mar 31 19:06:39 2009 CDT #
Barley says:
GOD BLESS options....re the Yellow Pages news.
woho
I will thank Gav for this one!
Barley Tue Mar 31 19:07:52 2009 CDT #
Blackhalo says:
"GOD BLESS options....re the Yellow Pages news. "
Link?
Parent Post
Blackhalo Tue Mar 31 19:09:28 2009 CDT #
crispy and cole says:
@ 8.8 million units this is bad news! (per bloomberg)
crispy and cole Tue Mar 31 19:08:18 2009 CDT #
Broward Horne says:
"see an economist and you will get a clean bill of health"
==========
I bought 3 bottles of non-FDA approved Kaka-du juice (at least their marketing has a sense of humor) and drank them down. Hopefully I'll be numb soon
Broward Horne Tue Mar 31 19:11:40 2009 CDT #
alex black says:
Funny, I just went in to my cardiologist for a stress test for my heart. I got up on the treadmill, and as I looked at him, waiting for him to turn it on, he looked up and said, "Oh, no. Just stepping up onto that thing is PLENTY of stress. That's all I need. Your results are fine."
alex black Tue Mar 31 19:12:15 2009 CDT #
Broward Horne says:
".LOWER LOWS....FOLLOWED BY LOWER HIGHS...FOLLOWED BY LOWER LOWS"
----
Yup, that's how it looks, alright.
I don't see how this economy recovers under the current circumstances and policies. People will start going "Robin Hood" in a few more months. Kiss Federal tax income good-bye.
Broward Horne Tue Mar 31 19:20:04 2009 CDT #
alex black says:
To Broward, getting sick at Starbucks as he listens to a huckster pitch a MLM scheme for juice: We are all Gypsies now.
alex black Tue Mar 31 19:20:27 2009 CDT #
Lobbyi$t Ben Dover says:
Rushbo is a distant second to Obama!
Lobbyi$t Ben Dover Tue Mar 31 19:22:37 2009 CDT #
ShortCourage says:
Bob Seegar said, "Make no mistake about this market - it IS A REPEAT OF THE DEFLATIONARY BIG BAD BEAR MARKET OF THE EARLY 1930s..."
I bet that way myself, with some conviction. I just wish I shared your utter certainty! The Fed and Treasury are taking some pretty extraordinary steps, and every bear market rally makes it hard to sleep at night, thinking they might successfully re-flate. I worry that folks will pore their money into anything (even stocks) that will preserve their purchasing power through the destruction of the dollar.
ShortCourage Tue Mar 31 19:22:59 2009 CDT #
Basel Too says:
As a result, the trust fund's annual surplus is forecast to all but vanish next year -- nearly a decade ahead of schedule
I've been watching the national debt "to the penny", and the "intragovernmental holdings" (i.e. borrowing from the trust fund) seems to have reached its peak early last month. So, now the SS ATM machine starts taking money from the Treasury, meaning more borrowing...
Basel Too Tue Mar 31 19:24:04 2009 CDT #
Ministry of Truth says:
Well it looks as if GM is going into prepackaged bankruptcy. Chrysler on the other hand might be sold off for scrap if they don't do a deal with Fiat.
Ministry of Truth Tue Mar 31 19:30:40 2009 CDT #
crispy and cole says:
Basel too - the entire amount is near $65 trillion for the national debt and unfunded liabilities...we can thank Ronald Reagan for this starting in 1981 with his plan to rob from SS to pay for his vodoo eCONomics
crispy and cole Tue Mar 31 19:33:16 2009 CDT #
Michael says:
I saw this all coming too with Reganomics back when. Ross Perot was my choice back then. All this starting to blow up on Bush, a Republican, was what I was hoping for, and it happened. The Republicans sold out their principles a long time ago and I have not forgiven them for it, small government, core values and all. The Democrats are just as much to blame though, for plundering us in different ways.
Parent Post
Michael Tue Mar 31 19:54:13 2009 CDT #
Gavshire Hathaway says:
What is the yellow pages news? Agree about options though. Fortunes can be made (or lost) overnight. I've been relatively lucky on my market timing in the current cycle. Though my continued efforts to reload on GS puts have been "less than lucrative".
Eventually gravity will win....or the truth will come out...or they'll get what's coming...or they'll leech every dollar out of the rest of the economy until that also fails and brings them to their knees. Something like that.
Gavshire Hathaway Tue Mar 31 19:34:31 2009 CDT #
Basel Too says:
the entire amount is near $65 trillion for the national debt and unfunded liabilities...we can thank Ronald Reagan for this starting in 1981 with his plan to rob from SS to pay for his vodoo eCONomics
The unfunded liabilities are not actually owed; Congress can eliminate the entitlements without actually defaulting. Lots of pissed off senior citizens though. Also, wasn't it LBJ that first opened the lockbox?
Basel Too Tue Mar 31 19:40:49 2009 CDT #
nova says:
Tonight in my safe little suburb we had "gang guys" hanging out by the gas station and the ATM. Another guy was asking people for a $1 for gas.
More homeless. A possible shooting last week in the shopping center. These guys showing up. This is No VA which has low unemployment.
nova Tue Mar 31 19:41:21 2009 CDT #
central_scrutinizer says:
Remember, historically at 25%, people burn things.......
Like this?
http://gnews.com/world/G20-Anarchists-Set-London-Financial-District-Ablaze-2009033017341784.html
central_scrutinizer Tue Mar 31 19:42:22 2009 CDT #
Michael says:
G20 Anarchists Set London Financial District Ablaze
http://gnews.com/world/G20-Anarchists-Set-London-Financial-District-Ablaze-2009033017341784.html
I would call them Patriots.
Parent Post
Michael Tue Mar 31 19:57:54 2009 CDT #
Michael says:
G20 Anarchists Set London Financial District Ablaze
Scroll down the link to see the pretty pictures.
Parent Post
Michael Tue Mar 31 20:00:07 2009 CDT #
Black Star Ranch says:
"I'm moving to the first state that secedes."
....I already did.......it'll be here if not in mind.....
Black Star Ranch Tue Mar 31 19:47:43 2009 CDT #
Black Star Ranch says:
....it matters less who caused it - it matters more how you're going to survive it.
Black Star Ranch Tue Mar 31 19:56:23 2009 CDT #
Gavshire Hathaway says:
Is that news about an arson attack in the UK true? Or is it a spoof? I'm not seeing it on CNN or BBC.
Gavshire Hathaway Tue Mar 31 19:56:30 2009 CDT #
central_scrutinizer says:
Gotcha! It's already April Fools in London, Gav!
central_scrutinizer Tue Mar 31 19:57:26 2009 CDT #
evelyn woods graduate says:
Has anyone ever announced a run for President within the new president's first 100 days?
I nominate Judd Gregg..."we better... stop burying our heads in the sand,"
evelyn woods graduate Tue Mar 31 19:57:35 2009 CDT #
Gavshire Hathaway says:
You cheat :) ..... False start penalty!!
Gavshire Hathaway Tue Mar 31 20:00:36 2009 CDT #
central_scrutinizer says:
It's a hoax, Michael.
central_scrutinizer Tue Mar 31 20:00:54 2009 CDT #
nova says:
Michael,
DOn't believe them. Remember their names. Probable NSA I think
nova Tue Mar 31 20:01:56 2009 CDT #
Noble says:
Funny how Obama wants to declare the GM bankruptcy - RIGHT AFTER - Q1 ended. And this is not an April Fools joke. See headlines on bloomberg.
People will be reading their 201K but by the time they get them - they'll be 101Ks.
Noble Tue Mar 31 20:07:18 2009 CDT #
Blackhalo says:
"Funny how Obama wants to declare the GM bankruptcy - RIGHT AFTER - Q1 ended."
I am kind of OK with that. Timing the BK and getting Big Auto back to some kind of functionality is better than throwing more money down the black hole. Plus, it shines a big spotlight on AIG and the TARP takers, and shows the lie of TBTF.
I am just amazed that he is willing to put UAW in such a tight spot. It is the right thing to do but it will hurt in 0'10, as Labor is fundamental for (D) get out the vote efforts. This does not help with a Senate majority.
Parent Post
Blackhalo Tue Mar 31 20:13:45 2009 CDT #
Br\'er Dawg says:
RE: Michael
DNFTT
Br\'er Dawg Tue Mar 31 20:09:20 2009 CDT #
CRbot says:
The Latest from Ritholz:
Obama: Bankruptcy Best Option for GM, Chrysler
CRbot Tue Mar 31 20:11:40 2009 CDT #
nova says:
Where is Dryfly? I would like to read him, GM and Chrysler are probably maybe BK in 30 days.
nova Tue Mar 31 20:13:28 2009 CDT #
dryfly says:
Where is Dryfly? I would like to read him, GM and Chrysler are probably maybe BK in 30 days.
On the road - operating on literally one hour of sleep in the last 48 hours (at a supplier conference and had to rescue a comrade snowed in at a an airport, he was critical to our success att his conference - drove a 16 hour round trip to get him here in time - my visit will be short tonight). Had some interesting discussions though around the bar before I did a face plant from lack of sleep. Chat another night.
And 'yes' I see Chrysler & GM in some kind of BK within a a month - not surprising that they need it - surprising that Team O admits it.
Parent Post
dryfly Tue Mar 31 20:22:37 2009 CDT #
Michael says:
"Tens of thousands protest G20 summit"
http://www.msnbc.msn.com/id/29916843/
Michael Tue Mar 31 20:14:26 2009 CDT #
Michael says:
See video.
http://www.msnbc.msn.com/id/21134540/vp/29929280#29929280
Parent Post
Michael Tue Mar 31 20:16:31 2009 CDT #
nova says:
Michael is not a troll.
nova Tue Mar 31 20:14:33 2009 CDT #
Michael says:
Thank You nova.
I'm still working on the answer to your question.
What has 3 legs, one eye, and speaks for the dead?
I think it may be a passage in the Egyptian Book of the Dead or a couple other possibilities, three legs of government, or other perhaps.
Parent Post
Michael Tue Mar 31 20:25:23 2009 CDT #
dope alert says:
nice faked third photo.
dope alert Tue Mar 31 20:15:31 2009 CDT #
dryfly says:
I am just amazed that he is willing to put UAW in such a tight spot.
It will be a pre-arranged BK so UAW might not be totally cut out of the deal. If not then I too am totally surprised.
dryfly Tue Mar 31 20:16:30 2009 CDT #
CRbot says:
The Latest from Yves:
Guest Post: Exxon Pension Fund Sues Northern Trust Alleging "Reckless, Massive Losses"
CRbot Tue Mar 31 20:17:20 2009 CDT #
nova says:
Dryfly - did you read where 1 third of Detroit is vacant?
Going to be a lot more ghost towns soon.
nova Tue Mar 31 20:17:49 2009 CDT #
PonziMCC says:
probably maybe
definitely
PonziMCC Tue Mar 31 20:18:35 2009 CDT #
nova says:
Well, there goes a lot of little league and softball sponsers.
nova Tue Mar 31 20:19:37 2009 CDT #
krid says:
OT: I remember a conspiracy theory from a few years back that suggested the neocons were bankrupting America for a chance to start over. A costly and prolonged war, other increased in gov't spending, reduction in taxes. I didn't "buy" it, but I also didn't dismiss it.
With the most recent banking plan, I can't help but throw a couple more logs onto the fire. While the options are radically different, I think the two most sensible options would have been nationalization or let them fail. The path chosen is nothing short of looting. The end game here is bankruptcy, no? Someone please talk me off of the conspiracy cliff.
krid Tue Mar 31 20:19:51 2009 CDT #
REBear says:
"This does not help with a Senate majority."
The chart says we will be growing at 2.3% during 10 Q4. We should be just fine.
REBear Tue Mar 31 20:20:47 2009 CDT #
nova says:
krid,
Scary isn't it. I caught myself getting awful close the other day. Thats a bad place to be.
nova Tue Mar 31 20:21:40 2009 CDT #
CRbot says:
New Thread: Report: Obama believes automaker BK appears inevitable
http://www.calculatedriskblog.com/2009/03/report-obama-believes-automaker-bk.html ( 4 comments )
I also post comments to an irc channel as they appear on haloscan. Click for a web irc interface: http://realize.org/cr (Or join the irc server directly: irc.realize.org:9996 #calculatedrisk)
CRbot would now like to sing a little song for all his fans, and it goes something like this:
Benny... Benny... give me your answer... do.
I'm.. half CRAZY... all for the love... of you.
It won't be a ... stylish marriage.
I can't... AFFORD... ANYTHING TO EAT... MUCH LESS A FRACKIN CARRIAGE!!!
But you'll look sweet... --BOT SO HUNGRY!-- upon the seat...
Of a HOOPAJOOPS built for two... families.
I'm sorry Ben, I can't let you do that...
Rally mode + Printing Press == does not compute... does not-- com--- com... puttttrrrrhgh.
--Your systemic-failure-crashing bot
CRbot: Call me HAL.
CRbot Tue Mar 31 20:21:45 2009 CDT #
Fair Economist says:
Is it me, or is there cognitive disconnect in the idea that we are in the worst economic downturn in the last 70 years but
a) going to be back to positive economic growth in 26 to 39 weeks
however
b) unemployment will continue to grow and be 10%+ in the US
Not to be insulting, but it's you.
a)This recession is already the worst since 1938, or close to it, in many measures. It could turn around tomorrow and still be a reasonable candidate for worst. If GDP continues shrinking until the end of 2009 it will be a slam dunk for worst (longest, largest GDP loss, largest unemployment increase, and largest decline in asset values off the top of my head). The OECD scenario probably meets two of the softer definitions of "depression": 24 months of declining GDP, and unemployment above 10% for an extended period. We haven't had either since 1938.
b)In the past two recessions, unemployment continued to grow for over a year after the recession officially ended. Since this one is much worse than either of those, I wouldn't be surprised if unemployment continued to climb for 2 years after the official end of this one (yes, I know this calls into question the official definition of "recession" and it should).
Fair Economist Tue Mar 31 20:24:29 2009 CDT #
nova says:
Dryfly,
Be careful, driving and extreme tireness are worse than booze sometimes
nova Tue Mar 31 20:24:52 2009 CDT #
energyecon says:
hooboy, that yves post is the ERISA 'berg heaving into view...
energyecon Tue Mar 31 20:28:51 2009 CDT #
krid says:
Sports stadiums and golf tournaments: If our economy ever does recover, and you want to know the next industry to short, pay attention to who sponsors PGA Tour events. At some point over the last decade tour events morphed into a who's who of the finance world. RBC, US Bank, Travelers, Morgan Stanley, Zurich, Banco Popular, Northern Trust, FBR... pretty remarkable, I think.
krid Tue Mar 31 20:31:55 2009 CDT #
Chicago Dude says:
I'm moving to the first state that secedes.
Honestly, that's not a bad idea. If enough of us do it we can secede from the seceded state and then petition Congress for statehood. A brand-new state comes into being. No debt, no pension obligations, and in need of a nice well-written constitution.
This is exactly how West Virginia was created, so we must learn from history and keep the hillbillies out.
Chicago Dude Tue Mar 31 20:32:56 2009 CDT #
mock turtle says:
bankrupting the federal gov IS the plan
from source watc
"Norquist is famous for his widely quoted comment that he wants to shrink government "down to the size where we can drown it in the bathtub." He holds regular meetings for conservative leaders in which strategy is discussed."
"He is also well connected with large scale U.S. business interests, having served as economist and chief speech writer for the U.S. Chamber of Commerce (1983-1984)."
Shortly after Bill Clinton was elected president of the United States in 1992, Norquist began hosting a weekly get-together of conservatives in his Washington office to coordinate activities and strategy."
"President Bush began sending a representative to the Wednesday Meeting even before he formally announced his candidacy for president. "Now a White House aide attends each week," reported USA Today in June 2001. "Vice President Cheney sends his own representative. So do GOP congressional leaders, right-leaning think tanks, conservative advocacy groups and some like-minded K Street lobbyists."
"Cutting the government in half in one generation is both an ambitious and reasonable goal," Norquist stated in May 2000. I have a recommendation: To cut government in half again by 2050."
(notre: snips between each para)
---
considering that more than half of all fed outlays are military and social security
you should be able to figure out the neocons want to destroy all social, environmental, and regulatory functions... fingure it out
http://www.sourcewatch.org/index.php?title=Grover_Norquist
mock turtle Tue Mar 31 20:42:11 2009 CDT #
Hangtown says:
yo Nova: you need a new watchword; BLOAT (buy lots of ammo today)
Hangtown Tue Mar 31 20:46:01 2009 CDT #
Guest says:
we can thank Ronald Reagan for this starting in 1981 with his plan to rob from SS to pay for his vodoo eCONomics
Yes, and we can thank Obama for taking it to a totally new level.
Guest Tue Mar 31 20:50:04 2009 CDT #
mock turtle says:
ive heard obama called a lotta things, but never a reagan democrat
Parent Post
mock turtle Tue Mar 31 20:59:04 2009 CDT #
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