The best I could think of was Mall,...Rats!

You drag us over to the new thread and that's all you got?

Barring a significant economic change, Reis does not expect vacancies to stabilize until sometime in the middle of 2012 if an overall U.S. economic recovery appears next year.

Anybody looked at the shelves of their local WalCostDepot lately? Lots of "shallow stocking." Even the survivors don't need all the space they have. Cascade warehouse implosions as supply chains shrivel.

fringe > x-files.

fringe > x-files.

Good stuff.

We were on topic??? What was it?!?

You drag us over to the new thread and that's all you got?

Hey, I log on, the post says Comments(many) and then nothing shows. It caught me by surprise.

But I doubt I could do any better with half an hour notice. Just don't have what it takes.

Retail vacancies at shopping centers were the highest since Reis began publishing quarterly data in 1999

What kind of odds do I have to give that Reis' 1Q09 will break the 4Q08 record?

thanks misean..I'm testing that this weekend on the lady...good to see ya around..

"Refresh my memory- Is there any reason to expect recovery other than "most recessions last this long, and we're already this far down the road, so we'll be out of the woods by,..."

No one's come up with one yet. Not here, not elsewhere.

sportsfan, this is for Q1 2009. I suspect the record will be broken every quarter this year!

CR,

At first I thought so, too, but questioned how he could possibly have that data out one week into the quarter.

Then I reread the Bloomberg piece which says:

Vacancies at regional malls and super-regional malls such as the Mall of America in Minnesota, South Coast Plaza in Southern California and Tyson's Corner in Virginia climbed to 7.9 percent from 7.1 percent in the fourth quarter and 5.9 percent a year earlier, Reis said. It was also the highest vacancy rate since Reis began surveying malls in 2000.

Then I wondered about how the fourth quarter could lose more space than was lost in all of 2008 (only 0.05MMsf).

The only answer I could come up with is that mall space actually increased slightly in the first three quarters.

So I ran it up the flagpole to see if anyone would shoot at it.

The Bloomberg article did have "first quarter" in the opening, but I think it should have been clearer.

Thanks for the clarification.

So, does that mean I won't get any takers? I'm still giving odds.

LOL! I saw new thread and saw that title. And thought, "hey that's not news!"

We could convert and use mostly abandoned malls for housing

Yeah, geez, if only we had an excess of SFRs. Wait a minute...

Did you see 10 Trillion and Counting? Fantastic!

Over retailed graph courtesty of JHK.

"incredible Frontline on tonight"

Did you see 10 Trillion and Counting? Fantastic!

BTW, what was the title of the ep? So I can, uh "record" it, yeah that's the ticket!

"Over retailed graph courtesty of JHK."

What are you going to do with your 20.2 sq ft?

"CR, Won't all those spaces fill up nicely if the rents come down? Seems to me we need lower rents in a hurry."

Long term leases, make RE look like the stock market to CRE. Talk about slow motion meltdown. Economy will recover before that is over as it will take BKs to break those leases at bubble rents. That is going to get fugly.

"Then I wondered about how the fourth quarter could lose more space than was lost in all of 2008 (only 0.05MMsf)."

In retail, most wait for the holiday buying season to end to shut the doors. Don't know if that would be Dec 31 or not. Pretty sure CC waited that long.

"But then you worry about this."

Man that Rolling Stone does not look a day older than he did at 30. Did he lose his squeeze to Glen Fry or something?

In retail, most wait for the holiday buying season to end to shut the doors.

Absolutely. It was discussed here for a while that several retailers were just hanging on to get through the holidays.

Interesting, though, that CR expects rapid contraction to continue beyond the first quarter (unless he was just kidding).

Well, 'linked" gave me an Eagles fix and Jon Stewart is about to tell me what happened today, so G'night, folks.

"Excess banker overflow storage once the Maricopa County Sheriff runs out of tent space. "

Mmmm, banker internment camps, since they are not safe for public exposure.. I like the cut of your jib!

Here is a fantastic example of how quickly we forget.

And in other parts of the world, centuries old disputes are still alive.

"Strip malls stripped."

Strip-mall clubs? That wold get me out of the house. I wonder what a table dance goes for in Vegas these days?

"If O messes with health care he could knock the last stick out from under this economy. "

That is not much of a stick. As long dry spell of unemployment leaves more of us w/o insurance, you get more unpaid bills to be heaped on to the insured. Rates would rise and Corps may balk ,and cut or cancel benefits. That is a stick that is gonna be under a heavy load.

Now if Gov stops giving money to banks and instead were to just buy, say ~50% coverage for everyone, you could get an economic boost by taking some of the load off of corps, get at least partially paid bills for the now, under-insured, and personal insurance for all or a portion of the remainder becomes affordable. Plus you take a monster load off of business making them more profitable and labor becomes more cost effective globally, resulting in back-sourcing and cheaper, more competitive goods.

BK's due to medical procedures might dry up, and hey, light at the end of the tunnel. Plus Gov as the largest insurer can drive some economies of scale, from the insurers via the bidding process.

That is some leverage, I can believe in.

I see a few diehards are still hanging out, although it doesn't look like I've missed much. Guess I'll go read the latest mp link.

@ blackhalo

I concur.

Large micro-managed companies have piss poor records at innovation.

Companies? Sounds like government, only with it's own perpetual bailout.

'Nite all!

"

Inside (RE, Malls, Apts, et al): nothing*
Outside: tent cities full of formerly middle class homeowners et al

*legal, that is, bet a few will be used as pot and other types of pharms..."

DId you see O' bash the legalize Cannabis question?

Soley on the idea that taxing the sales alone, does not generate enough revenue? Not taking in to account being able to reallocate Cannabis specific DEA to focus on something more threatening, and the reduction in income that would result in eliminating 100%, forever, a major cash crop from the competition. Giving DEA better odds of making a difference, as a large chunk of Cannabis production is domestic. So, they can go somewhere that matters, like El Paso/San Diego.

Not to mention a potential pardon, of all non-violent cannabis specific, drug offenders. Allowing either a reduction in the police/prison industrial complex, or to free up much needed room for bankers.

"Banks aren't reselling many foreclosed homes."

Cramer's advice was for banks to hold all RE until the prices go back up.

What could go wrong?

"...any idea on why all the MSM have been focussing on Mexico lately?"

We have a new head of Homeland Security that never met an illegal she didn't like. She's pushing the idea that all Mexico's problems are the fault of the American middle class citizen. If we punish the citizens enough - by giving more jobs to illegals or more money to Mexicans - the American middle class will see the futility and immorality of maintaining any sovereignty. What's the converse of patriotism?

YLSP:
BTW, anyone have any idea on why all the MSM have been focussing on Mexico lately? It's not like the situation has changed drastically all of a sudden... the "Crises on the Border" has been bad since at least 2006 and probably more. Yet now Fox, CNN, et al have all been running programs highlighting the border.

Same thing as playing up when people snap and shoot the place up. They're preparing the groundwork for a gun / power grab.

It's just the equivalent of running the Terrorist Threat Level up whenever the fear factor is starting to slip and people are asking questions about Bush, or saying that, if you don't give the bankers everything they want, a nonspecific economic crash will take place. It's just another Big Lie -- what's sad is, you see people suck it right up.

The dynamic is, the average Republican numbnuts seems to think Mexicans are descended from dogs and unable to feel human emotions, while the average liberal dimwit gets all wet with the idea that, yes, their fantasies are fulfilled, American guns are causing bloodshed and instability.

It's kinda like judo. The whole "light weapons proliferation" thing is a big international thrust for the gun control types, so they are already "prepared" for it as the media says; likewise all the Joe Arpaio fanclub wannabe Nazis have been wound up about beaners for a couple years now.

What's sad is, ten years, the robbery of the Treasury and the destruction of the nation's hegemony and people still think the people running this are making policies and announcements that aren't just manipulation and looting.

That is so wrong. Although disorienting at first, controlled use of lsd should result in a greater consciousness of reality, not lesser.

Ah, but don't stare into mirrors while doing it. Seeing all the scales replacing your skin can be scary

mark wrote on Wed, 04/08/2009 - 5:51am.
So some of you are now advocating that people be incinerated? Am I the only one who finds some of these comments a bit troubling?

Lucfer is kinda neurotic. But all in all, is it the comments that trouble you? I mean, because your nation's wealth is being carried off by politically well-connected looters.

I wouldn't want it to happen due to mob violence rather than as a deliberately undertaken policy of the state, but if you phrased it as, "should the Republic undertake to ferret out these people and subject them to capital punishment" I would say the answer is an unequivocal yes. If you find that troubling, I think you need to get more familiar with the scope of the looting.

FYI:

Pulte just bought Centex.

http://www.bloomberg.com/apps/news?pid=20601087&sid=ah9BO7Q6AKpM&refer=home

Why do some persist in asking what new enterprise will pull us out of this downturn? Is this an actual nation or is it just a party forever latching on to a theme?

sleight-of-hand,

I doubt history will prove a reliable guide in the disappearance of consumer choice. Would that there were a mere seventy-eight shampoos on offer. There are probably seventy-eight dandruff shampoos, at a minimum.

pavel.chichikov (member) wrote on Wed, 04/08/2009 - 8:05am.

*"I mean, because your nation's wealth is being carried off by politically well-connected looters."*
Byz, this is as old as the existence of complex societies. Maybe it's even inevitable.

So are tyrant kings. We have an answer to them, "sic semper tyrannis."

The cyclical inevitability of it doesn't mean you should be comfortable with it, it means you should be ready for it.

Nothing is inevitable for a society,

Prestidigitationista wrote on Wed, 04/08/2009 - 8:44am.

When did we stop being called citizens and start getting referred to as consumers, anyway?

Mid-century technocracy. Highly-educated elites selected on merit would provide technician-approved solutions based on sound principles of scientific rule.

Also, the rise of MAD and the standing mobility warfare army, and the deliberate destruction of the civil defense movement and the citizen-soldier played a role too.

The belief was, generally, that citizen involvement led to populism and short-sighted policies that were essentially no more than mob rule, and that people needed to be "guided" into good decisions and the choices pre-made for them.

This was also to some extent intended to help us get used to the part where soon, men with swollen heads in control rooms at the UN would be implementing their genius plans to made the world a paradise -- perhaps as soon as 1965!

You can't really have any other opinion in a centralizing bureaucracy. Your career and planning process are never going to come in second to the mercurial opinions of a Republic. "Professional" states can't possibly try to do anything but ignore their populace because being responsive to the customer is antithetical to bureaucratic existence of planning and long-term programs whose performance is entangled with your own career prospects.

So I would really blame WW2 and the New Deal. That was what set the US on the road to a centralized technocratic state, and thus what made it important to reduce the role of individuals from citizens, who are free political agents, to consumers, who are spreadsheet components.

My fear is we go from huge number of different brands of shampoo or whatever to occasionally available supplies of various brands at "official" prices (the ones used in CPI) with an exorbitant black market as the only way to get things in the real world.

OT-
I don't know if this is good or not, and it's a little old, but:
http://1.bp.blogspot.com/_8rpY5fQK-UQ/SbpGPmBG5QI/AAAAAAAAGKM/vpwk8fiyWb...
It seems that this should be a good thing, in that when these underlying items are consumed, someone will need to go to work to manufacture replacements. I certainly hope so.
xxxxx

Dawg,
How do you embed links as you've done here?

Over retailed graph courtesty of JHK.

Not quite:
2] CPUs - Originally developed for the F-14
invented by Intel for calculators
4] Antibiotic Research- A lot was indirectly funded by the government.
Developed in England, IIRC
7] Jet Engines- Again.. heavily funded by the government.
"Recovered" from WWII German research

I grew up in that Commonwealth - and only the Supreme Court was able to say that the tyranny of preventing a white and a black citizen from marrying would perish from the earth.

Note didn't have a tyrant king, and the justices didn't have their heads struck off for offending that tyrant's sensibilities.

If you want to live in a society governed by angels, you'll have to kill yourself and hope for heaven.

If you want to stay down here with the rest of us, you gotta deal with the fact that utopia isn't happening any time soon, and miscarriage of mechanism is the rule, not the exception -- something a lot of police fanciers could stand to learn. Within that fallible context, we have destroyed slavery, thrown down most kings, and inch by inch, we are enforcing equality under the law for race, gender, religion and sexual preference.

It's an iterative process and involved significant backsliding. The fact that you don't get to the end the day you start is just something you'll have to get accustomed to. Luckily, Liberty is reborn in the breast of each person who discovers freedom and so I am confident the process will continue.

He captured Harper's Ferry with his nineteen men so true
He frightened old Virginia till she trembled through and through
They hung him for a traitor, themselves the traitor crew
His soul is marching on
Glory, Glory! Hallelujah!
His soul is marching on
John Brown died that the slave might be free,
John Brown died that the slave might be free,
John Brown died that the slave might be free,
But his soul is marching on!

"Presumably somebody turned on the internet, and presumably somebody could turn it off."

Sure the internet could be turned off... just like you can turn off the electric grid.

assume crash positions

well said re the internet

yeah, i would call it a hydra

hallelujah,

finally rents reverse. it's about time, every former muffler shop is now a latte stand. i have been waiting years for rents to decline. commercial property owners were all pricing in $400 PSF condo redevelopment for every crappy vacant warehouse and didn't even care about collecting rent. they would quote whatever rent price starbuckks down the street was paying. this was a serious impediment to new business formation and innovation.

i had been hitting on commercial landlords for three years until i finally gave up.
the last guy in december i basically told outright i was taking six months off to wait for more vacancies. then i quoted economic horror-facts off the top of my head.

i got the gas face.

love it.

They don't want to turn it off, they want everyone to have a Great Firewall of China and vigorous efforts to police their own electronic "territory". Basically they want to bring the nation-state model to the internet. This is hilarious, as the nation-state model is clearly perishing in the real world, but the goons who want it are duped bagholders themselves, so no big surprise.

We're all very experienced sophists! =)