Comments for "March FOMC Minutes: Outlook Revised Down"


Um, yeah. Would they have decided to create an extra $1+ trillion if the outlook had been revised UP?

- Nemo


Barley says:
1. Congress critters: We need a few more trillion.
2. We need to inflate, and now dmait.


Anyone who thinks they're only going to buy $300B considering that events have worsened since is delusional beyond words.


Does that mean "substantial" in addition to the 300 billion?

How does this affect the stress tests?


A few more trillion on the backs of a smaller work force.

can you say 50year t-bonds!


Oh I see just the March minutes.


Does that mean "substantial" in addition to the 300 billion?

I guess it means QE will continue until they decide it doesn't need to continue any more. My hunch is they'll buy as much as they need to in order to keep the interest ratse where they want them to be.


Am I wrong in believing there was no revise to the BLS' February unemployment numbers? If it's true, that would be an interesting omission, especially given the second down-revision to January at -741K.

Did I miss something?


Memo

From: Stress test command and control center

To: Field testers/bank handholders

Subject: Lowering bar further in light of FOMC outlook

Effective: immediately


Memo

From: Stress test command and control center

To: Field testers/bank handholders

Subject: Lowering bar further in light of FOMC outlook

Effective: immediately


ooh, double my comments half the fun


I thought that "worse than expected" would be the economic catchphrase for this year and next. But instead I now nominate "revised down."


I would hate to be Bernanke's wife. Having to fake it night after night to all of his 'stimulus'.
«Yes Benny. That is the spot. Oh my. Ok, time for sleep now. Stop with your stimulus, you were very good, now please go to sleep»


gotta keep inflation expectations in check while "magic printing" occurs behind the curtain.


The tide is retreating swiftly and they suddenly realize they are swimming naked. Ben and Timmay flail about in a vain attempt to arrest the retreating tide............

Too late suckers. Unfortunately the public shepel are getting stuck with the tab........


Well, there's always the possibility that the revised numbers are the same as the original numbers...however unlikely that may seem.


Bob Dobbs
How do you like the sound of "Permanently impaired gains", does that sound like something you would be interested in? Because I can sell you some


Dead Monkey-

Possible. But HIGHLY unlikely: the numbers issued at the beginning of the month are only an estimate and revise reflects 'hard numbers' coming in.

As far as I can tell, there has never not been a revise and I would think it's an impossibility given the process.

Would then an omission be because it's so damn bad they want to give it another month? Remember, the market was still dancing last week on reporting better numbers.


They said open market transaction longer term assets. There is a wide range accepted at the discount window now, not just treasuries.


"Both exports and imports retreated significantly in the fourth quarter of last year and appeared headed for comparable declines this quarter"

The Cargo Cult Consumer economy is about to go tilt, as in no inventory on the shelves...

That ought to wake up the slumbering public to what's happening.


Yesterday during an all-hands "state of the company" meeting, I came to the realization that "it wan't a complete disaster" and "things are proceeding not much worse that expected when we revised all of our projections in November" is the new "we're doing great."


Many people are having trouble getting approved for mortgages or refinances (my case) based on the really strict lending standards (which I acknowledge are perfectly acceptable in regular times). But if the economy is going to improve, lending standards will have to be lowered. My case is plenty of emergency cash on hand, but an income that can't currently meet the demands of today's more rigid standards. Obviously, standards were lower when I took out my mortgage. All I'd like to see done, is for the Fed to insure lower rate mortgages for everyone that has a decent credit score and good repayment history, regardless of whether their income meets current standards. The difference between my current higher rate and a potential 2+% difference with a refi would give me enough $$$ left over to spend money and help the economy.


But, but Ken said they were well capitalized and would start paying back TARP money!

- Bank of America Corp., the largest U.S. bank, needs to raise $36.6 billion in equity to bring capital ratios in line with its peers, according to Oppenheimer & Co.

http://www.bloomberg.com/apps/news?pid=20601087&sid=aQtZLKAka1CE&refer=home


...and reduce the risk that inflation could persist for a time below rates that best foster ...

Just say it guys. PRINT!

My deflation expectations are well anchored, are yours?


When does the Fed admit that their "more adverse scenario" doesn't even cut it anymore as a "baseline scenario?"

--It won't be pretty but it will be an Exurban Nation--


"Bob Dobbs
How do you like the sound of "Permanently impaired gains", does that sound like something you would be interested in? Because I can sell you some"

Nah; but it sounds like you have a future in prospectus copywriting.


it means they're printing money like a drunken fool.


Have you ever been out drinking, and about half way through the night you realize you are spending way to much money? You shrug and say "F@@@ It" and you realize you are not going to stop until you are;

beaten senseless
arrested
passed out
end up in a cheap motel or studio apt in bed with someone who you fervently hope is not like the last one.

Thats our government!

http://afterthecrash.net - Home of the Doomer Story Portal and Other Stuff


When does the Fed admit that their "more adverse scenario" doesn't even cut it anymore as a "baseline scenario?"
--------

baseline (n): a value or starting point on an imaginary scale with which other things are compared

It can still be a baseline. It should just be renamed as the "best case scenario."


Anonymous wrote on Wed, 04/08/2009 - 2:24pm.

ROFL

yeah, right.

http://afterthecrash.net - Home of the Doomer Story Portal and Other Stuff


"...real GDP expected to flatten out gradually over the second half of this year and then to expand slowly next year as the stresses in financial markets ease, the effects of fiscal stimulus take hold, inventory adjustments are worked through, and the correction in housing activity comes to an end."

The fiscal stimulus cannot take hold unless folks actually get behind the money: Like a new road attracting investment in small businesses to an area, or coffee shops opening to take advantage of the surge of new students to a university, or housing development following government investments in transit and other infrastructure.

But who will loan money to the entrepenuers that might undertake such enterprises? Where will that money come from? I think there are a million mattresses out there getting heavier by the day in anticipation of falling prices, and folks are begining to like their new sleep number beds...

Nope, the FOMC notes (as released--I doubt the real conversation was recorded) are folly. The Fed just wants to wish away the FUNDAMENTAL problems with tired old models. By the way, where were these guys (the ones who say that the old models remain operative) when people were question the dot.com boom and the housing bubble. If I recall correctly, many of them were willing then to concede that "things are different now--it is a whole new paradigm, etc."


No, nova, that's never happened to me. It scares me that you can even conceptualize such a scenario.


They are nationalizing the nation.

We are all toxic assets now.


OH my nova, lmao....


So let's say you were a retailer last year, and because xmas hopes spring eternal every season like so many visions of sugar-plum-profits, you ordered a veritable shitload of consumer trinkets from China in August, before the proper shit hit the fan in September, and were only too happy to lose money on just about everything you bought, with an amazing amount of inventory and sales going nowhere fast.

As if you were going to order anything in February for spring & summer, pushing your losses even further?


I thought that "worse than expected" would be the economic catchphrase for this year and next. But instead I now nominate "revised down."

I was going to nominate "Legacy Loans," except for the fact that FHA seems to be a legacy loan factory running at full speed. Is it still a "legacy" if it's still being created in real time? Maybe they're still using the "legacy underwriting" techniques of the past few years, so the transitive property applies... (If so, what should we call the really old, well written loans? "Dynasty Loans?)

I miss Tanta.

------------------
sacrealstats


An old rule of thumb from Fed guys -- Surprises from the economy lead to changes in policy. They were surprised by how bad the economy was, so they ginned up a large round of asset purchases.


someone should check Craigslist in D.C. for "One, slightly used, paradigm. Like new!!!!"


Our situation could be resloved if only the Chinese would develop an enormous addiction to cheese. Not the fancy kind, though.


Dead_Monkey_Bounce wrote on Wed, 04/08/2009 - 2:34pm.
No, nova, that's never happened to me. It scares me that you can even conceptualize such a scenario.

I hope that was snark Monkey. If not, well son you got to get out there and live! Honky tonkin ain't something to miss!

Experience the thrill government monkeys get when they spend your money!

Feel the power of a full throttle, don't give a damn, drunken and drugged, maximum speed bender! Just like spending a trillon of somebody elses money!

http://afterthecrash.net - Home of the Doomer Story Portal and Other Stuff


(If so, what should we call the really old, well written loans? "Dynasty Loans?)

I've got one of those. So can I wear the shoulder pad suits and throw my drink at nasty tycoons?


EvilHenryPaulson wrote on Wed, 04/08/2009 - 2:41pm.
someone should check Craigslist in D.C. for "One, slightly used, paradigm. Like new!!!!"

I did. Not there. Lot of college girls looking for tutition help and other things that I am not cOOl eNouGH to UNdersTANd

http://afterthecrash.net - Home of the Doomer Story Portal and Other Stuff


We don't honkey tonk in Boston, you're thinking of New York City.


"The fiscal stimulus cannot take hold unless folks actually get behind the money"

......many seem to think that once the floodgates are opened with "all the stimulas money" being offered by Uncle Sammy, everything will be much better.

Instead, tend to think of the stimulus "floodgates" as one every 100-yards. Each "flow" backs up to the next gate and not all is let out further down the line. Multiply that by a thousand and you end up having more floodgates than flood.

- - - - -

Black Star Ranch


funny stuff-fed minutes were front page last month on Marketwatch..no where to be found today..just uptck rule headlines..

I emptied my bank account so the bastards can't use it. Being in debt is like diving with great white sharks.


Boston? Sorry, never get drunk in a town you can't get a good taco in. Thats one of those rules of life you need to memorize Monkey

http://afterthecrash.net - Home of the Doomer Story Portal and Other Stuff


"But who will loan money to the entrepenuers that might undertake such enterprises? Where will that money come from? I think there are a million mattresses out there getting heavier by the day in anticipation of falling prices, and folks are begining to like their new sleep number beds..."

This is just a senseless and naive fantasy, of course, but what if people with assets actually started identifying local business opportunities in hard times and building/investing in/backing them directly?

There's always something. If I had the skills, or knew who to back, I'd go long shoe repair.


Why no "contained"?


So all the bank chief equity startegists will start revising this afternoon, right?


I live in Orient Heights, there are plenty of good tacos to be had down the street in Maverick.


DOW JONES NEWSWIRES
NEW YORK (Dow Jones)--Morgan Stanley (MS) shares suffered another drubbing Wednesday as more analysts expressed concern that commercial real estate woes will dent quarterly profit. The investment bank, which will report first-quarter results in about two weeks, is seen by a growing number of analysts taking write-downs from securities backed by real estate loans. Analysts predict a wave of troubled loans could hurt banks already reeling from the subprime mortgage crisis. Morgan Stanley shares were down 85 cents, or 3.6 percent, to $22.47 in late-afternoon trading on the New York Stock Exchange.

.............................

Base hits win ballgames.
If you don't take your profits, someone else will.


We wont really see the bottom until we hit it.


....LOL....a good taco in the NE is like great sushi in Liberal, KS.....

- - - - -

Black Star Ranch


How much is the take home pay for a $100,000 job?

Fed Taxes: $22,372
State Taxes: $9,000
FICA: $6,200
NonPaid Insurance: ~$3,500

Net ~$58,928

Typical Rent for person making $100,000: $14,400 annual
Typical Utilities: $3,000 annual
Typical Communication needs cost: $1,800
Entertainment at home: $1,800
Entertainment outside: $8,000 - $12,000 (restaurants, movies, theater, sport events, outdoor/indoor recreation activities, gym membership)
Personal maintenance: $1,500
Food: $3,000
Car payment: $4,500
Insurance: $1,200
Clothing: $3,000

What's left: $12,728: the balance usually goes toward paying monthly credit card bills because the person though they needed that 52" TV and iMac and SLR Digital Camera and that week in Hawaii or Vail. Poof! WTF am I so cash poor?

Longboard Edit commentDelete comment Wednesday, April 08, 2009 - 12:26:01 AM | #
"12 months from today, those with solid 6 figure jobs will see their purchasing power increase handsomely."

I'm neither perma-bear or bull. My line of work just doesn't allow it. However, I do need to be aware of the fundamentals and I cannot approach these matters with a myopic view point.

GDP growth from 2000 to 2006: 15%
Real income growth 2000 to 2006: -0.7%
Population that's officially poor increased 10% between 2000 to 2006
While inflation has been somewhat anemic, the middle-income market has faced the largest costs increase: health care, child care, tuition and housing which have been outpacing CPI.

So, during the economic expansion poverty is increasing at the fastest rate, real income has been falling faster each year and key prices have been rising faster than average.

Real salaries for starting college grads rose less than 2% from 2000 to 2006.
Top 1% of households earn only 22% more in terms of real purchasing power since 1929.

I am not sure; if purchasing power has not been getting better for the last 80 years, I can't see a dramatic shift in 12 months.

Something is fundamentally wrong.

Cut and pasted.
Longboard Edit commentDelete comment Wednesday, April 08, 2009 - 1:01:06 AM | #


"Boston? Sorry, never get drunk in a town you can't get a good taco in. Thats one of those rules of life you need to memorize Monkey"

For me, the rule is "don't get drunk in a town without a good carne asada burrito available after midnight."


Yankees measure "mexican" cuisine by taco quality.
South westerners measure "tex-mex" by tamales.
All Yankee Mexican food is the same.


Tacos-I recommend Chronic tacos in Huntington Beach-13th and orange... but make sure your hungry.....Panchos in San Luis Obisbo on Marsh st...

disclaimer-opinion biased based on love for tacos....

I emptied my bank account so the bastards can't use it. Being in debt is like diving with great white sharks.


I've had "New Mexican" food and it was shit, don't talk to me about Southwesterners.


Black Star Ranch (member) wrote on Wed, 04/08/2009 - 2:56pm.
....LOL....a good taco in the NE is like great sushi in Liberal, KS.....

Thank you BSR, I was searching my mind for the right words and then....

http://afterthecrash.net - Home of the Doomer Story Portal and Other Stuff


For me, the rule is "don't get drunk in a town without a good carne asada burrito available after midnight."

+1

San Diego style Carne roolz.


"Doubling Bank of America's ratio of tangible equity capital as a percentage of risk-weighted assets to about 6 percent would put the company in line with the 6.3 percent average of the 25 largest U.S. banks, Kotowski said. "

"About 6" is evidently "in line" with a 6.3 average. Hey Ken, use your significant judgment to double your tangible capital. Then when the other 24 banks double theirs, oh wait...


Tex Mex? Oh, you mean that weak ass Chili's style crap.


Bank Cum America is spewing jism all over the place.


"San Diego style Carne roolz."

No doubt. The rule in high school and college was that someone had to be sober enough to get the rest of us to the nearest Ro-/Hum-/Gil-bertos greasy hole in the wall for our C.A. fix.


Roberto's carne - or snausages.


Mexican restaurants are like banks, a couple good and a lot more bad....authentico es moi bueno!

I emptied my bank account so the bastards can't use it. Being in debt is like diving with great white sharks.


So you think we should go back to the very lending standards that started this whole mess just so you can keep your sense of entitlement? HA! Get to the back of the line!


Boston? Sorry, never get drunk in a town you can't get a good taco in. Thats one of those rules of life you need to memorize Monkey

Well, you could have gotten a good taco at El Pelon, about two blocks over from Fenway park. Right up until they burned down last year. Again.


Burrito, hell -- after midnight, you want a plato at a good taqueria: a pile of thin-sliced carne asada or carnitas or al pastor, a pile of beans, a pile of rice, big puddle of guac and sour cream in one corner of the plate, a haystack of white cheese, some rudimentary salad, and 7 or 8 mini-tortillas for scooping it all up with. Fond memories of El Farolito on 24th in SF, 2 am on a Saturday night on the way home from parties.


Two things prevent capitulation Pride and Greed. Wall St banks have both, in spades

This house of cards is coming down


The mysterious taco truck in Pasadena was awesome. It would appear magically, like the Lost Dutchmanas dusk fell, serve up it's eats and then vanish once more (to avoid health inspectors) .


Chili's is "export quality".
Tex Mex is like barbeque, you buy it at a Mom and Pop outfit.
If you need a reminder that NASDAQ listed restaurants are in-authentic, then
you're missing something.


New thread yall


Fitch cuts Ireland to AA+, outlook negative

How long until USA = AA+ ?


Speed (member) wrote on Wed, 04/08/2009 - 3:08pm.
Fitch cuts Ireland to AA+, outlook negative

How long until USA = AA+ ?

2 years, 6 months, 4 days, 7 hours....

http://afterthecrash.net - Home of the Doomer Story Portal and Other Stuff


Speed (member) wrote on Wed, 04/08/2009 - 3:08pm.
Fitch cuts Ireland to AA+, outlook negative

How long until USA = AA+ ?

2 years, 6 months, 4 days, 7 hours....

http://afterthecrash.net - Home of the Doomer Story Portal and Other Stuff


Salad has no place in my "I'm bombed after midnight" regimen.

Meat. Cheese. Guac. Salsa. Tortilla. Done.


For me, the rule is "don't get drunk in a town without a good carne asada burrito available after midnight."

+1

San Diego style Carne roolz.

los panchos... .college blvd


"Two things prevent capitulation Pride and Greed."

And a few trillion in bailouts.


Off the top of my head I'd say that you can get very good Mexican here at Zumas (Quincy Market, priced for tourists, but good enough), Acapulcos (lots of locations, mainly suburban), plenty of hole-in-the-wall local places in my part of town (the only area with many non-Dominican hispanics), and also my favorite Edgewater Cafe in Salem. There are others, but I can't judge based on personal experience.


bob dobbs-is it still there? might have to take that in..

I emptied my bank account so the bastards can't use it. Being in debt is like diving with great white sharks.


www.burritobox.com/

9th ave ...meets a SD natives taste test


My all time favorite Mexican place is Ted's Cafe Escondito in Oklahoma City though.


Which non-extradition country is going to prove most popular with those with the loot and the motive to get gone?


Escondido, I kant spel.

http://www.tedscafe.com/


Burritos, Tito's Tacos in Culver City!


Bacon wrapped hotdogs in downtown Tijuana - pure joy.


Los P on College Blvd.

+2

Except they used the mayonaissey kinda guac, not the real stuff.


Speed,
Bacon wrapped hotdogs in downtown Tijuana - pure joy.
o
nly you have a mini-glock in your pants in today's TJ...

I emptied my bank account so the bastards can't use it. Being in debt is like diving with great white sharks.


"

bob dobbs-is it still there? might have to take that in.."

It's still there, though I haven't been since the '90s. But many good taquerias have platos (plates) unless they're really tiny or have a really limited menu.


Viva la Border Dog! And churros on the walk back to the bridge.


Carne Asada - Porky Land in National City, SD area.



Charlie, what happens to interest rates if they succeed in causing inflation? What happens when they try to drain the liquidity out...interest rates go to the moon. It's Argentina time, amigo.


Get a grip Anon...that type of thinking got us into this depression.


    It's still there, though I haven't been since the '90s.

Still there and still a long line at 1AM.


Aside from all that, everything is just fine.

Now is the time to buy. . . anything.

lawyerliz


Fuggedabout Ben's wife Evil, I was struck (the shock stimulous so much more effective than the gradual arousal) by Krugman's (the sumptuous Spain video) where he acknowledges that Ben has a tough job...and that his former boss at Princeton who hired him took his current position, a demotion....a demotion, you hear that? (Ok, let me splain: and that the Fed is lucky to have such a talent in that cesspool )...just so we understand the framework of what Krugman states and what can and cannot be said wrt Bernanke's efforts on confidence, stimulation, and in the end credibility: Bernanke's , Krugman's, yours and mine.


Best Mexican food ever: Dominguez Mexican Restaurant in El Paso, TX. Hole-in-the-wall, authentic, and you'll probably be one of the few people who speak English in there. They brought out two salsas for chips and after I tried the first one my tongue was on fire. I assumed the second salsa was mild but it was even hotter!


Anonymous wrote on Wed, 04/08/2009 - 2:24pm.

All I'd like to see done, is for the Fed to insure lower rate mortgages for everyone that has a decent credit score and good repayment history, regardless of whether their income meets current standards. The difference between my current higher rate and a potential 2+% difference with a refi would give me enough $$$ left over to spend money and help the economy.

Oh is that all!


Is this a comment page about the FOMC or Mexican food? Okay maybe everything else can go to hell in a handbasket we will be okay as long as there are tacos.


Anon@3:25 says
"Is this a comment page about the FOMC or Mexican food? Okay maybe everything else can go to hell in a handbasket we will be okay as long as there are tacos."

Tacos are what people think about when you talk to them about why they have lost so much $$ in a 401K why they cant get a loan and why banks pay NO interst on savings. In Jan 2008 I said move all of your company match stock out and put it in fixed income for saftey while it is at 60 a share I went on to explain why it was going to go down A lot. Dude said I was nuts it will NOT go lower. He was right in May 2008 it hit 61 and I told him and All others to Bail I could see tacos in thire eyes they did not care thought I was Nuts said "Look man I been puttin in 15% and get a 8 % match 5% emerging markets 5% company stock 5% fixed income + 8 match in company stock,ya I lost some but been doing this for 28 Years my 401k is FAT, it will not go lower and if it dose it will come back". July 2008 I asked you still muching tacos? stock is now at 50 might be your last chance to Not lose too much. He said 50 is not bad compaired to what other places are doing we still have orders new stuff coming in, this wont last. Zoom to today he Still has taco stain on his face stock went to 24 up to 34 back to 23 up to 29 said he stopped with the 15% now down to 10% with the same mix new stuff is here all orders are at ALL TIME 25 Year LOWS missed Q1 by 3.2 Million (45%), must take a 10% pay cut and he and others still say this wont last and it will come back! You see the quest for tacos and the Best taco keeps one from thinking and doing anything else. BTW guy says he is only down 25K Didnt have the hart to ask if that was for the last quater (Q408) told him the stock is now down 50% from last year so all it has to do is have 100% gain and all will be OK.


*sigh*

As an investor/consumer I have to admit to almost no confidence in the PTB and hense our economy. A large part of it is due to the other market participants... but a good part can should be laid at the Fed/Treasury.

Are banks getting bailed out, or are they just getting loans to stimulate the ecomony. Is it just banks... or all financials that are effected? How are they effected? Will shareholders get dilutied or wiped out? Will the mark-to-market rules changes effect banks? PIPP? Is the Fed QE or not?

The problem with this patch-work solutions is that I no longer trust that the rules won't change. As a result, I'm mostly sitting this market out...


FED morons will continue to revise down. Head FED moron actually said we could recover this year. He later said it was likely we would recover this year. Curve fitting fools. They don't understand the machine works. All they know how to do is read the gauges. It is like a black box to them...and their models of the box are their reality. They really do not see what is happening.

Unreal.


Bonds, I Agree

I think the Fed and all the central banks are doing evrything to stop a bad feedback loop from starting but by doing all this crazy stuff they themselves Are giving the loop energy all the while refusing to do the one and only thing that can stop this and that is JOBS lots of them! do what ever it takes to creat jobs NOW! to hell with everything else its lots of jobs for everyone or we all go down faster than you can say AIG.


Done