So what confidence are we supposed to any bank or government numbers?
What does it mean for a bank to be profitable these days anyway? Do we believe them when they project their losses or their loan-loss reserves?
a new world diete:
lighter consumption => higher savings neutralised by lower employment
OT:
What do y'all make of this report by Wells Fargo of a 3 bill profit? WTF? How is this possible?
We may see more devaluations as countries try to get dollars to rebuild their currency reserves and repay dollar denominated debt. Dollar should be strong for the remainder of the year.
Looks like net exports will be a significant cushion for the decline in 1Q GDP, add in the better PCE and it is possible that GDP will surprise to the upside by being down only 4% or so.
Good morning!
All those hard-core communists out there must be laughing their asses off. And that is even without drinking too much vodka! Every day a real communist wakes up already in good mood and goes to nearest public library to see latest news from Internet.
And every day as clockwork those "dirty capitalist pigs" bring even more "good" news for communists. Another bank failing, another round of massive layoffs, another day of non-solutions or pseudo-solutions like giving blank checks to greedy banksters. Nationalizing is too commie thing to do anyway..
Yeah, fire every western worker and replace them with Asian slave workers. Hey, where did our consumer base disappear? Why our company order books are empty? Let's raise CEO, CFO etc salaries even more! Lets fire even more those dirty workers! Even more inequality is the answer! That should do it!
Every day those "capitalist pigs" hang themselves a little bit more and communists don't need to do anything! Except maybe drink a little bit vodka...
Wells Fargo: Profit Get! A Winner Is Us! But Our Giraffe is in Another Castle... http://www.bloomberg.com/apps/news?pid=20601087&sid=a8Z2dpdbolGw&refer=home
Bond market not happy this morning. Hope nobody has too much FAZ...
Remember that Wells Fargo had their kitchen sink quarter in Q4, everything from Wachovia and any Option ARMs got written down. Bank competitors like the bond market are no longer competitive so banks can dictate terms to companies. All the banks will be profitable excluding legacy items. The difference in earnings this quarter will be how much of a write-down legacy assets will get. Remember commercial real estate will hit the banks earning over the next two quarters. Credit card write-downs are only beginning the worst numbers won't be until the end of the year.
WTF? How is this possible?
The government wanted them to show a profit, so they showed one.
Simple, really.
The US trade deficit is falling, while China's and Japan's trade surplus is shrinking. Welcome to equilibrium.
Hey, where did our consumer base disappear?
All our consumer base are belong to China.
About those shrinking exports...given a continuing trend. this would appear to impact the appetite of foreign central banks to continue to buy UST, no?
WTF? How is this possible?
Bailouts + multiplier effect + lending out with high margin over Fed discount rate.
Moody's Investors Service has cut Warren Buffett's Berkshire Hathaway triple-A rating.
Moody's dropped Berkshire two notches, to double-A2.
"Today's rating actions reflect the impact on Berkshire's key businesses of the severe decline in equity markets over the past year as well as the protracted economic recession," Bruce Ballentine, Moody's lead analyst on Berkshire, said on Wednesday in a statement.
Last month, Fitch cut Berkshire to double-A, assigning a "negative" outlook to the rating. In addition to concerns for the performance of Berkshire's investments and operating units, the firm also reiterated "long-standing concerns with respect to 'key man' risk in the form of the company's chairman." Finding a successor to Mr Buffett is a daunting task, Fitch wrote.
Berkshire owns a 20% stake in Moody's.
One Salient Oversight wrote on Thu, 04/09/2009 - 9:19am.
The US trade deficit is falling, while China's and Japan's trade surplus is shrinking. Welcome to equilibrium.
It ain't the change, it's the delta over time. In this case, the course to equilibrium might be comparable to say, the equilibrium achieved when a submarine's pressure hull ruptures at depth.
EDIT: Double post.
Ken -- didn't post this message twice but got two copies posted. Any ideas?
Ouch, Shill.
Talk about biting the hand that feeds you.
How do you turn ~5 $TRILLION into $3B.
Easy ! Let timmay ben do some investing for you!
The pace of the change in imports, exports and the net number is just staggering...what was that, 8 months from about the largest ever to 10 years ago in the wayback machine?
I had to tighten my belt an additional notch this morning. Not sure if that means I'm doing my part or not, but it does mean that my stress level is way down and that I'm losing weight 
B_R,
I was just musing on the same thing, without the "crush depth" metaphor...there would seem to be a world of second order pain that is going to propagate outwards from these numbers...
One Salient Oversight wrote on Thu, 04/09/2009 - 9:27am.
> WTF? How is this possible?
Bailouts + multiplier effect + lending out with high margin over Fed discount rate.
Don't forget accounting gimmicks. MTM suspension "starting" is just validating lots of existing marks made under interim guidelines / waivers. They'll do great, right up until the money runs out.
And every day as clockwork those "dirty capitalist pigs" bring even more "good" news for communists. Another bank failing, another round of massive layoffs, another day of non-solutions or pseudo-solutions like giving blank checks to greedy banksters. Nationalizing is too commie thing to do anyway..
Yeah, fire every western worker and replace them with Asian slave workers. Hey, where did our consumer base disappear? Why our company order books are empty? Let's raise CEO, CFO etc salaries even more! Lets fire even more those dirty workers! Even more inequality is the answer! That should do it!
Every day those "capitalist pigs" hang themselves a little bit more and communists don't need to do anything! Except maybe drink a little bit vodka...
And this is the difference between a genuine communist and those buffoons that took over Russia and ran the eastern 2/3s of Europe into the ground. Every attempt to push the issue simply helped to prop the capitalist system up, when the clear lesson from Marx was to simply DO NOTHING and let the system self-destruct.
Kermit's out of the gate like a bullet
China to execs: Pay yourselves less or face unstated consequences: http://www.businessweek.com/ap/financialnews/D97EUETG0.htm
Japan floats bonds for $154Billion stimulous: http://in.reuters.com/article/economicNews/idINIndia-38962920090409
Big Banks are the contemporary vaunted swampland. People will take this news and buy into it. If the gators and snakes don't get them, the mosquitos will. There will be more blood.....so much more blood. Until we collectively drive a stake through the vampires heart (fat chance of that happening), instead of offering our willingly abused necks, the blood-letting will continue.
Lets see, China and Japan are running lower surpluses, and thus have less ability to buy US debt. Yet, the US will need to issue much more IOUs than ever before. Does it smell like Treasury yields will need to go up at some point?
----
"no one is pricing in low, mid teens unemployment in any of their assumptions." - Meredith Whitney
Eventually the leeches and blood-letting will drive out the evil spirits though, right? Or is that magical thinking?
SRS and SKF, need to get creative with these losses.
@Byzantine_Ruins from previous thread
"Hope that's not too rude, CR. If it is, just tell me and I'll edit it down."
Not rude; no offense taken.
My comment was intended as a joke. I think a lot of people are finding it harder to trade these days and I was trying to humorously blame it on the switch away from haloscan, which I think occurred at roughly the same time the markets changed.
Capitalism doesn't work when 98 percent of the people taking part in it have the IQ of an oyster.
I would not be surprised at all that WFC is posting strong results. My partner and I refied this week and the loan officer was beside herself with work. They laid all her help off last year and now they find themselves in the midst of a refi boom.
BTW, we managed to knock $600 a month off our mortgage costs.
It's like mad-crooked-casino-world!
Every country is running its own house, clipping cards, loading dice, and just plain roughing up anyone who might try to make it out the door with something in their pockets. The little guys anyway.
The big guys all wink at each other and make the rounds til closing time.
Green Branch forum - Secular homesteading and much more...
Seven Trees farm blog
No problem W.T.
I guess they are making conventional loans in Colorado.
They aren't in Florida.
lawyerliz
@ ouch
Don't hold those ETFs over night or more than a day.
I f we close above 845 2 days in a row I 'll have to cover the shorts.
At least the gubment is trying to get out in front of the trend of SWFs et al souring on Treasuries with the bailout bonds.....though I would think a little more creative nomenclature might be in order.
Just how apeshit does our consumer culture go when the shelves are barren of imported items?
Seems to be a pretty simple recovery strategy:
We started with a BIG lie, so we'll recover also with a BIG lie. Most of the intelligent class saw the past lie but still followed and made money. Most of the same will see the recovery lie, and will make money. And then we'll try to get back to start being honest one day in the future...if possible.
OK, the Wells Fargo thing doesn't require all that much guessing. Wires already have it that it was savings due to Wachovia. As Rajesh noted, WF took an acquisition hit in the prior quarter. Taking the hit early means showing clear benefits early. Accountants have some discretion in such matters and in this case used the discretion to produce bad news when bad news was everywhere, so that producing good news when few others could became possible.
WF has played the whole episode better than most. What I find odd is that evidence WF is better managed than the others, has been more aggressive in getting bad news out, and did better with its acquisition than others, is lifting the whole sector. This is WF's good news, not good news for banks in general.
aw
This is not a recovery it is a gov't injection of adrenaline
"Capitalism doesn't work when 98 percent of the people taking part in it have the IQ of an oyster. "
Hmm....I thought that was the KEY to making it work;)
This is a carefully orchestrated short squeeze. Parade the best financial out with solid one time profits, before the rest report next week. Sign of desperation here. Watch the bond markets.
It's not even good news for WF. It merely indicates that they are more adept at moving the shells around. It's still a shell game, and we still lose, even if we don't play.
The very last thing Wall Street needs right now is more ADDrenaline.
Like force-feeding cotton candy to a diabetic.
I punt....
Dead_Monkey_Bounce wrote on Thu, 04/09/2009 - 9:39am.
China to execs: Pay yourselves less or face unstated consequences....
"unstated consequences" = one-way trip to an organ harvesting facility.
Pensions facing a Cash Crunch
They (Pensions) are being forced to sell off assets at huge discounts to pay out pensions, and are at the same time seeing their funding levels plummet to dangerous new lows.
http://www.nakedcapitalism.com/2009/04/guest-post-pensions-facing-cash-f...
What can you drop when your pants are already at your ankles?
Maybe capitalistic animal spirits do not work when you are living in a friggin zoo with more than plenty of handgrenades laying around...
Obama Immigration Reform conference this morning: http://www.nytimes.com/2009/04/09/us/politics/09immig.html?_r=2&hp
@ Tim waiting for 2012
I agree on principal, but in the past I've reaped huge rewards by holding. I've erased 70% of this year's gains in the last two weeks. Almost did the shuffle over to UYG and URE this morning. Have to get creative. Hmm... -13% and -10%... but with this news SKF could have one of it's -30% days. It's days like these I wonder why I started doing this stuff. The stress of the down days seems to outweigh than the euphoria of the up days. I don't think it's healthy.
Has the past 6 months been just an opportunity for the powers that be to get ready to vamoose with their ill-gotten gains?
Like so many rats scurrying away from the sinking ship, with hunks of government cheese, intact.
Byzantine_Ruins, odd, I only see one copy. Anyone else see a duplicate?
...U.S. Trade Deficit: Lowest Since 1999...
~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~
Better headline : America still unable to earn its own way :
America's dilapidated economy is still unable to generate enough earnings to support the nation, so America in spite of an already crushing debt burden still needs to take dozens of billions of new credit month after month from foreingers .
Samdog (member) wrote on Thu, 04/09/2009 - 10:07am.
"unstated consequences" = one-way trip to an organ harvesting facility.
Bigger bribe to elder brother more like it.
ouch
I don't think we will close above 845-850 on the SP500. So maybe not a 30% loss
Anyone remember decoupling?
Those were the days...
The lending bubble of the first half of this decade was coincident with a jump in the trade deficit and may have been fueled by foreign capital looking for a profitable place to invest their US dollars. To the extent this is the case, then a reduction in the trade deficit is going to cause even less money to be available to lend in the US, and could slow the thawing of the credit market.
Anyone know if the FM/FR moratoria on foreclosures have anything to do with this? After all, between the two, they own or guarantee somewhere in between 67 - 75% of all mortgages in the United States. Were the banks able to postpone writing down foreclosure losses while the ban was in place (for the entirety of the fourth quarter), or where they still forced to acknowledge the losses, just hold off on the evictions?
The flip side of the mortgage ATM consumer bubble in the US was the export-to-US consumer bubble overseas. These countries are now going to have to focus on building up their own domestic economies if they are to have any hope for growth. All the excuses they have given not to do this are now simply moot. Change or collapse. What is truly remarkable is how stable the dollar has been in this correction. Despite all the doom-sayers saying that deficits would destroy the buck, the currency has remained resilient, still the only real option as a store of value in the world.
Chinese goods have never had much of a reputation aside from being cheap in both price and quality, but imagine what happens when that reputation only regards to quality and not price?
Tim waiting for 2012 wrote on Thu, 04/09/2009 - 7:07am.
Pensions facing a Cash Crunch
They (Pensions) are being forced to sell off assets at huge discounts to pay out pensions, and are at the same time seeing their funding levels plummet to dangerous new lows.
~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~
One word : sweeeeet .
(I like the smell of impoverished Americans in the afternoon. )
Ken:
Originally these posts were identical:
Byzantine_Ruins (member) wrote on Thu, 04/09/2009 - 9:32am.
One Salient Oversight wrote on Thu, 04/09/2009 - 9:19am.
The US trade deficit is falling, while China's and Japan's trade surplus is shrinking. Welcome to equilibrium.
It ain't the change, it's the delta over time. In this case, the course to equilibrium might be comparable to say, the equilibrium achieved when a submarine's pressure hull ruptures at depth.
Byzantine_Ruins (member) wrote on Thu, 04/09/2009 - 9:33am.
EDIT: Double post.
Ken -- didn't post this message twice but got two copies posted. Any ideas?
Not sure if I managed to post and then post again, but I sure don't think I hit the button twice. Don't mind if it was me, but it is experimental so I figured I should report it, as it might be the form handler iterating when it oughtn't.
Here's something a bit worrisome:
China wins economic war with US in Pentagon war game
It seems that in this scenario, China won by letting the US and Russia beat themselves up, and possibly by creating uncertainty by slowly liquidating their dollars though not enough to destroy the value of their holdings. I wonder if it might be an option for the US to flood the market with dollars as a counterattack, and FORCE the Chinese to buy dollars to maintain the value of their holding?
Wha'da'ya'think?
"What I find odd is that evidence WF is better managed than the others, has been more aggressive in getting bad news out, and did better with its acquisition than others, is lifting the whole sector. This is WF's good news, not good news for banks in general"
let us just see what the up/down volume will look like intraday (small time frames; 1 min, 5 min. as well as the uptick -downtick numbers). I am already willing to bet it is another of these days with a large gap up on "a few" shares, followed by a day of churning (at best) with massive volume, in other words a nice unloading op.
Anyway the reversal during the last 30 min. yesterday gave away (for me) the open this am. Nice that "change" has not reaches market manipulation, or is it part of the psy op = behavioral finance-economics??
sorry but as someone said yesterday on Bloomberg, hope is not for traders-investors, I trade on DATA and care little about what anybody says
Homes, cars, art seized in Colo. Ponzi scheme
A former bishop in The Church of Jesus Christ of Latter-day Saints allegedly operated a Ponzi scheme from his suburban Denver home for about 15 years, bilking investors out of millions of dollars to collect religious art and classic cars.
http://news.yahoo.com/s/ap/20090409/ap_on_re_us/ponzi_scheme_seizure
"What can you drop when your pants are already at your ankles?"
A brick...
I've given up on the ultras as anything other than a means for harvesting option premiums from the crack addicts (and there are apparently a lot of them) who don't think that 2X and 3X leverage is sufficient. Started a couple of months ago with FAS-FAZ in equal amounts and this month added SRS-URE. Sell 1-month covered calls on both positions with an OTM spread between 10%-20%. Reload after opex to rebalance/replace executed sales. Lather, rinse, repeat to the tune of about +10% per month. I think I'll go to the well once more for May and then batten down the hatches. With VIX as high as it is, better to be the house than the gambler.
It's always easiest to bilk those within the subset of true believers...
For a glimpse into the mindset of Mormons and how gullible they are, I recommend "The Mormon Murders"
MORE BULLSHIT:
WASHINGTON (Reuters) - U.S. officials will not look to close any banks based on the results of "stress tests" being conducted to determine how the largest U.S. banks would fare under more adverse economic conditions, a source familiar with official talks said on Thursday.
"You can't close a bank based on a hypothetical," the source said, speaking anonymously because the tests, being done by the U.S. Treasury, are still being finalized. "And you wouldn't want to anyhow, based on the size of the banks."
However, the tests are likely to show that some banks may have sizable capital needs under the conditions being tested, which is "common sense," the source said.
Officials are still discussing how to release the results of the stress tests, and the decision will likely be made by the Treasury, the source said, adding that officials are aiming to release them in some form at the end of April after the bank earnings season is over.
Rich888 wrote on Thu, 04/09/2009 - 7:17am.
...Despite all the doom-sayers saying that deficits would destroy the buck, ... , still the only real option as a store of value in the world....
~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~
I guess Jas Jain needs to be reprimanded for insulting the dopes .
did you see this in the Times...
Britain's Top Antiterror Officer Resigns
By SARAH LYALL 8:29 AM ET
Bob Quick resigned after being photographed, above, carrying in plain view a secret document that outlined details of a major antiterrorism operation.
the Times, depend on them for screwing up. that wasn't Bob Quick.
that was Clarence Beeks carrying the crop report.
pity, can't find the gorilla... Nemo's monkey will have to do...
Jas is a true-believer in the dollar vis a vis his holdings in treasury units of dubious exchange.
In the end, he's just the ultimate born and bred rope a dope, ain't he?
There are many reasons we are where we are, but we would be remiss if we didn't include Organizational Behavior as part of that reason. As a corporate journeyman, I can say, unequivocally, that current organizational structures, which are but mere clones of one another, is the glue that binds this destructive path. I remember taking Organization Behavior in my Masters program. I struggled with it, initially, because so many of the concepts were related to acquiescing to current and orthodox regimes. It was up to you, little old you, to add value (how is that defined), and if you were perceived not to add value, you would fail. There was no obligation on the part of the organization to facilitate and enable your success. I thought it was hogwash then, and I still do to this day. It creates perfectly tin soldiers who lack any outside the box creative thinking. I mastered the concepts and received an A in the class, but I never accepted the concepts as a valid path to success. Of course, success to me is structures and resulting behaviors that allow all humanity to prosper. The assumption has to start with the simple fact that all people are valuable, inherently, and it is up to the structures to allow that collective value to flourish. An environment predicated upon win/lose won't work....and, so, here we are. Everyone attempting to get their own and to hell with the other guy. We are imploding, and a large part of that has to do with a faulty structure, and/or structures.
"You can't close a bank based on a hypothetical,"
The hypothetical is that the economy will stay as healthy as the over-optimistic stress tests suppose.
There must be a lot of home import/export business going bad.
--------------------------------------------------------------------------
Learn the 7TH Amendment maggot!
Red Beckman - Fully Informed Jury
http://video.google.com/videoplay?docid=7385583011526915030&hl=en
Rich888:
I agree with your analysis, but I'd love to know (like everyone else) how the dollar will look 2010. As of now though, there's really no "safe" alternative in the short run.
Looks like the boyz are unloading BAC by looking at the block trades...
http://online.wsj.com/mdc/public/page/2_3022-mflppg-moneyflow.html?mod=m...
Should be much amusement tonight and tomorrow watching MSM gush all over this "great" news.
This market manipulation is making me sick! I'm out of it for good. retailers with bad numbers climbing 10-20% is beyond rediculous...continued claims setting new record....
etc. etc.. etc... we get 200 point jack up.....
no winners in this game....
_______________________________________________________________________________________
I emptied my bank account so the bastards can't use it. Being in debt is like diving with great white sharks.
on the Bob Quick story...
here's the link http://www.nytimes.com/2009/04/10/world/europe/10britain.html?hp
using secret technology I was able to enlarge the photo ...
in the middle of the page under subsection 3b I think
I can make out the words Calculated Risk ... yikes
A brick...
thank you Cinco-X.
with a laugh, I can go to bed!
If nothing else, the credit crisis of the past 18 months has debunked the notion of financial market being an all-knowing, self-correcting mechanism that perfectly allocates capital. Even Alan Greenspan admitted as much.
As a result of the bursting of that theoretical bubble, Americans' lives have been inexorably changed and "there's no way to go back to where we came from," says George Soros, chairman of Soros Fund Management.
Americans were "living in a fool's paradise" based on the "false promise" of the "market magic," and the idea debt-fueled consumption was a sustainable and legitimate economic policy, the billionaire speculator says.
"You can't close a bank based on a hypothetical," the source said, speaking anonymously because the tests, being done by the U.S. Treasury, are still being finalized. "And you wouldn't want to anyhow, based on the size of the banks."
Just another example of the propaganda being fed to the masses by the government overlords. Your tax dollars hard at work ,,,,
"Daisycolorado wrote on Thu, 04/09/2009 - 6:52am.
BTW, we managed to knock $600 a month off our mortgage costs."
Jesus Christ. Pretty much speechless after reading that.
I see our government on virtually all levels as being Billy Mummy's character in a Twilight Zone episode, where if anybody utters anything remotely unpleasant, it simply gets wished into the cornfield.
It's a Good Life!
Creditcriminals,
You can edit your signature line to put it in italics and add a dashed line on top to separate it from your new comments
--------------------------------------------------------------------------
Learn the 7TH Amendment maggot!
Red Beckman - Fully Informed Jury
http://video.google.com/videoplay?docid=7385583011526915030&hl=en
Reading through these comments I see a lot of Born and Bred Dopes....lot of Bullshit Wind bags also.
When you own gold, you are investing with Plato & Julius Caesar.
Even better:
America ships less cash to ungrateful European allies.
I knew all that dark matter would be worth something, someday.
--It won't be pretty but it will be a bankrupt nation--
I got quite a few lashings for this one yesterday.
"I've noticed a new trend emerging, I think it started with the Taxday Boston Tea Party people as a symbol of their commitment to take back control of our government.
They are giving the all seeing eye on the back of the one dollar bill a black eye with a black marker, or they are cutting out the eye with a hole punch. I hope this doesn't upset anybody."
http://hosting02.imagecross.com/image-hosting-08/7981Black-eye.jpg
--------------------------------------------------------------------------
Learn the 7TH Amendment maggot!
Red Beckman - Fully Informed Jury
http://video.google.com/videoplay?docid=7385583011526915030&hl=en
I'm always amazed at how much correct sentiment is voiced against our financial leaders on one token, and quite often the same person expressing outrage will say something like "cash is king", not realizing they have just voided their previous argument, by siding with those that would do us harm.
I knocked off $575 off my mortgage. I paid it off!
That the late republican party faithful can still be steered around like so many cattle approaching the abattoir, is remarkable.
thank you Cinco-X.
with a laugh, I can go to bed!
Bed!? The day is young 
Where are you located?
Billy Mummy?
I saw Billy and his punk band in LA around '81... the Mommy Men, I believe...
"You can't close a bank based on a hypothetical," the source said
This comment is so idiotic--it just makes me want to push this "unidentified" a--wipe's face through a wall .... Are we supposed to believe that regulators still haven't looked at these banks' assets? After all we've been through since Bear Stearns?
That's not hypothetical! These guys are insolvent--now take them over like you do with small and mid-sized banks every day. Don't try to pull the old "too big to fail" routine with us again!
Fish Heads, Fish Heads, Roly-Poly Fish Heads!
Sign above the door of the abattoir:
"Arbitrage Macht Frei"
"America ships less cash to ungrateful European allies. "
OH NO, don't do that you American MASTAH! Russians are coming here any second now and all I can do is to throw this perfectly good expresso at them! We are soooo doomed! Anything but that, Mastah! You wanna my first born, mastah?! I can give it to you! Oh please, you overlord, don't stop giving us money!
Ooops - the deficit is still a deficit, though now it is a shrinking deficit - sort of like losing weight by gaining less pounds thqn in the past - the direct ion is not exactly wrong, but it still isn't actually losing weight. I guess all that dark matter is an attractor - it keeps needing to grow to cover the basic theoretical bases.
--It won't be pretty but it will be a bankrupt nation--
(Tech note - Guest registered automatically? Or are we working on the clampdown?)
Man, with Wells Fargo showing us that the big banks are OK, it is so, so good to know that we can close TARP I and II, and don't have to proceed with PPIP. What a relief!
Remember that a drop in the trade deficit will add directly to 1Q GDP, even if it is coming from a drop in imports rather than a surge in exports. Combine this with the evidence of a slight rise in PCE in the 1Q, which sure beats its collapse in the 4Q, and we have the makings of an upside surprise in the 1Q GDP growth numbers. They will still be down of course, but possibly much less than people are expecting, maybe a -4.0 print or something like that, which I suspect the markets would take rather favorably.
Oh by the way, my April Startegy report is out, if you want a copy, shoot me an e-mail at dhvd_2004@ yahoo.com
shill,
stop looking at the mirror...
_______________________________________________________________________________________
I emptied my bank account so the bastards can't use it. Being in debt is like diving with great white sharks.
Our Government has The Dream Team at work today, all the Party Planners (as in Good Time Charley) has now been given the PR System, MSM took it and run, while you and I say wtf, check the mirror to see if indeed we have stupid wrote on forehead.
Since we're firmly back in the 80's, here's some good thread music:
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=9ZRib_aAQFQ
------------------
sacrealstats
"we have stupid wrote on forehead. "
You have to use UV light. They are sneaky.
'Russians are coming here any second now'
In environmentally friendly and green approved natural gas powered tanks, according to one august poster here. Who hasn't yet noticed most of America's formerly European material is currently being maintained outside of Europe. America has been living off its capital for years, and that includes its military. But let's keep it a secret between you, me and the rest of the world. Americans tend to be pretty prickly on the point.
--It won't be pretty but it will be a bankrupt nation--
ac - loaded up on FAZ @ 13.92....
Fargo - 3B not ex items...
Troubles on the periphery:
Stratfor
---------------------------
INTELLIGENCE GUIDANCE (SPECIAL EDITION): APRIL 8, 2009
Editor's Note: The following is an internal STRATFOR document produced to provide high-level guidance to our analysts. This document is not a forecast, but rather a series of guidelines for understanding and evaluating events, as well as suggestions on areas for focus.
April 9 may see the first real movement against the Georgian government since it came to power in the 2003 pro-Western "Rose Revolution." This is not an anti-Western movement to change the regime, but a movement to oust President Mikhail Saakashvili, who has been blamed for getting Georgia into the August 2008 war with Russia. The Georgian opposition -- made up of 17 typically fractious parties -- wants to have a government in place that can at least work with the Russians, since they currently occupy the Georgian breakaway regions of Abkhazia and South Ossetia (which make up 20 percent of the country).
The 17 opposition parties have organized for the first time and claim that they will have 100,000 people hit the streets of the Georgian capital, Tbilisi -- the largest number of demonstrators since the Rose Revolution. Saakashvili is prepared, however; there are reports that the Georgian military has already deployed outside Tbilisi in order to counter the demonstrations. But the Georgian military consists of only approximately 21,000 active soldiers, and most of them are deployed on the borders of the northern Russian-occupied secessionist regions.
------------------
sacrealstats
Changed my e-mail because of the phrase I coined.
Inna Godwina vita baby!
stop looking at the mirror...
I emptied my bank account so the bastards can't use it. Being in debt is like diving with great white sharks.
----------------
Yawn! Viva La Key Board Revolutionist.....( Crickets Chirping )
Depressionistas running scared....we are no WFC, but like I have been saying the Q1 was very strong...just saying (Ad nauseam )
______________________________________________________
Crispy & Cole...suddenly I feel optomistic!
That would be diputs inscribed on their foreheads....not "wrote." Diputs is as diputs does....according to s'tserof mother.
I'm guessing the locals weren't impressed with the tie-eating episode.
The economic collapse is well underway. The next phase is political collapse.
Yours In Communism,
Kilgore Trout
Oh please, you overlord, don't stop giving us money!
Don't even kid yourself you're not about to get squashed flat. It's just a matter of the mechanics.
Not that i'm out of the closet, in a Godwin sense...
The German people (N6P) after the war, claimed to have been out of the loop about the actions of their leaders, which brought on the deaths of 50 million people.
Will the American people (J6P) after the financial war is over, claim to have been out of the loop about the actions of their financial leaders, which brought on the debts of oh so many people?
"Crispy & Cole...suddenly I feel optomistic!"
-----------
Does that mean you can... see through the fog?
loaded up on FAZ @ 13.92
Watch the PM short-covering. Not too many are going to be short over the holiday weekend.
LOL!!
______________________________________________________
Crispy & Cole...suddenly I feel optomistic!
Will the American people (J6P) after the financial war is over, claim to have been out of the loop about the actions of their financial leaders, which brought on the debts of oh so many people?
"I swear, I only registered with the rep/dem party because it was the only way to get a job in the financial industry."
It's easy to have a strong bottom line in Q1 when you've laid off 5-10 percent (or more) of your workforce.
It's cash in the bank!!
It's easy to have a strong bottom line in Q1 when you've laid off 5-10 percent (or more) of your workforce.
We're definitely seeing that with many of the specialty retailers.
The beat goes on....
MAPLEWOOD, Minn. (AP) - 3M Co. is offering early retirement packages to 3,600 employees, or 11 percent of its U.S. work force, to reduce costs even further amid the economic slowdown.
The voluntary buyout offers follow the manufacturer's recent moves to cut 3,600 jobs, defer merit pay raises and adjust vacation allowances.
Company spokeswoman Jacqueline Berry said eligible nonunion employees - either at least 59 years old with five or more years of service, or at least 55 years old with 30 years or more of service - will be notified of the early retirement package on Thursday. They will have until May 31 to make a decision.
3M has not said how many employees it hopes will take the voluntary package, or how much it could save if employees opt to retire earlier than planned.
Those who take the package will receive an additional year of service credit and have a year added to their age in calculating their pension benefits.
Earlier this month, 3M cut its worldwide work force by 1,200 jobs. The company, whose operations span office supplies, transportation and health care, also cut 2,400 jobs mainly in the U.S., Western Europe and Japan in the fourth quarter to save $235 million this year.
N6P: Brown Shirts
J6P: Brown Undershorts
Railfax updated.
TEU / Intermodal continues its slow recovery. Again, anyone in rail or rail freight friendly who can pretty please explain the rebound in intermodal? Is this just arbitrage among shipping modes, or clearance from port faciltiies or what? It's slight, but it seems discontinuous with the overall pitch of the data.
Which is that metals haulage is down 50% year on year, forest products are down 25% year on year, and autos are down 45% year on year -- all figures for the week. Baseline 4 week is assuming a ski slope appearance. 13 weeks are starting to turn down again after a brief spike.
My previous feeling that the economy shrank by about 15-20% during the credit panic continues to appear true to me due to the lack of swift sectoral recoveries, and it appears we are about 1-2 weeks into the second order contraction.
The layoffs are helping most companies bottom lines...the recovery will be slow with minimal growth +1 to -1% and will inger for years, those with a job will feel great and those without will cling to their gold, guns and religion...however, no depression
______________________________________________________
Crispy & Cole...suddenly I feel optomistic!
The Virginian-Pilot will lay off 40 people, dropping its work force below 1,000 employees, the newspaper's publisher said Thursday. It will be the third wave of job cuts at The Pilot in the past six months.
Nevertheless, The Pilot's financial outlook is brightening, said Maurice Jones, the president and publisher.
Combined, the newspaper and its associated companies turned a profit in the first quarter of the year, said Jones, who declined to disclose figures. March was The Pilot's most robust month in at least a year, he said, with every unit recording a profit.
But the profits, Jones said, still fall short of the company's targets, required to pay taxes and other bills and equipment costs, including the modernization of its printing press. That, he said, triggered the latest cutbacks.
When the last newspaper goes down, will anybody notice?
No depression, Crispy & Cole. But what you stated makes a great recipe for the biggest societal upheaval since the Civil War.
"it appears we are about 1-2 weeks into the second order contraction."
----------
Reflective.
The positive feedback is jerky, time-lagged.
Look at Japan, same thing, see-saw pattern.
Yes, Arbitrage. ... The TV news stations that get 80 percent of their stories from reading the newspaper out loud will certainly notice. ... So they'll run more pre-package shit from their parent networks.
"Don't even kid yourself you're not about to get squashed flat. It's just a matter of the mechanics. "
Half of Europe already went through one big collapse during early 1990 (Soviet Union). Another half served as first attack units against Soviets earlier on. And even Nordics have their little collapse at the same time. (Where is that Swedish Model talk coming from, must be one hot bitch
Like this L'aguila earthquake in Italy, nothing like Katrina, the rescue units went there and fast. Europe has been disaster/war zone for hundreds of years but Americans kinda tend to "forget" that. And when it was the last time USA itself was attacked from neighbouring countries?
And do Canadian or Mexican fighter jets try to test your air defences with supersonic speeds regularly like in the Eastern Europe? Like Russian jet fighters continuosly testing Danish/German/Netherland NATO-fighters, taking care of poorer NATO nations like Estonian/Latvian/Lithuanian airspace. Also independent Swedish and Finnish airspaces are continuosly probeb by the Russian military.
Our go-go up and went away-away.
Jay D.
Saw the link you posted for me. Funny, I didn't find it bullish at all.
You read the paragraph that alluded to NPLs? Because a funny thing has been happening. Right now there is a global overcapacity of shipping, firms are cancelling orders all over. Yet Chinese shipping companies seem to have an order for Chinese shipbuilders whenever there is a cancellation... I guess there is the Reserve to pay for any unforeseen costs
You'll have to rely on more than government statistics to stay current, because China is not going to have a self-sustaining economic recovery any time soon. Too much weight behind manufacturing oriented exports, and the heavy bureaucracy imposed on small businesses means there isn't a chance of that changing quickly.
Werner,
Article for you: [Germany's] exports were equivalent to more than 47 per cent of GDP last year – compared with less than 20 per cent in Japan and about 13 per cent in the US. Its industrial base is skewed towards producing machinery and equipment – "investment goods" account for more than 40 per cent of its exports – and towards emerging European and Asian economies.
Make no mistake, 'it' will arrive. I don't encounter a recession at all in my day to day life, but I'm smart enough to know the absence of evidence is not the evidence of absence. These things take time to appear
⡑⡓⡏
In the UK on the telly, the people that read aloud whatever the teleprompter tells them to say, are called newsreaders.
We call them celebrities.
"when it was the last time USA itself was attacked from neighbouring countries?"
---------
Mexico has been invading the U.S. for many years.
http://marketplace.publicradio.org/display/web/2009/04/07/pm_best_excuse...
The recession is providing a great cover for employers who have been looking to get rid of employees............
Is this an American thing to actually compare OVERCONSUMPTION with OVERPRODUCTION? Like drug addicts and drug cartels.
"when it was the last time USA itself was attacked from neighbouring countries?"
-------------
Canada has been invading the U.S. for many years.
Like retailers, we're now trying to clear out new old threads: http://www.hoocoodanode.org/post?id=/8856565403912487111&author=Calculat...
Employers are on the verge of wielding the most power of anybody in our country.
They can pick and choose from the debtweight, making or breaking people's lives in the bargain...
"when it was the last time USA itself was attacked from neighbouring countries?"
---------------
Texas has been invading the U.S. for many years.
Texas is a hellwhole, cleverly disguised as flat wasteland.
The administration and the banks keep talking about a credit crisis, but there isn't one. Banks are lending. If you want a mortgage and can afford to pay it back, you can borrow at low rates today. You can finance a car at low rates for seven years. But most Americans don't want more debt because it is a debilitating path to poverty. The average American family already pays 14 percent of annual income in interest to banks.
http://www.sfgate.com/cgi-bin/article.cgi?f=/c/a/2009/04/04/INR316Q4F5.D...
Very true, Arbitrage. Unions and the minimum age are in trouble.
What do y'all make of this report by Wells Fargo of a 3 bill profit? WTF? How is this possible?
From the taxpayer, via AIG?
NEW THREAD, DUDES
I wonder what the small percentage of AIG employees who gave up their bonuses must be thinking now.
OT: I haven't seen a SINGLE report on the effects of income tax returns on the economy. This last report from Wal-Mart showed a decrease over expectations of 2/3rds. If they have previously been consistently above the curve, and NOW are feeling the pinch after tax checks have been run thru their stores, shouldn't this be REALLY BAD NEWS that hasn't even risen to the surface of the worthless MSM news? Could ppl be saving the checks unlike previous history? Cashing them and piling them into the cookie mattress? This past month should have been better retail wise if people were spending........Just curious........
- - - - -
Black 
Ranch
BSR, FWIW, we had a surge in business from the first week of February until about the middle of March in the bar industry here in PC Florida. We then did a nosedive the past few weeks. Business picked up some this week, not sure why, although it's Spring Break here so that accounts for some of it.
i think kudlow was a little upset this morning "what the hell does the treasury no about stress testing?"
Chinese goods have never had much of a reputation aside from being cheap in both price and quality, but imagine what happens when that reputation only regards to quality and not price?
when I was growing up (60s and early 70s), all the cheap junk had "made in Japan" stamped on it.
"Canada has been invading the U.S. for many years. "
The latest incident will become known as Canadian Bacon 2.0 - Dark Cessna, The Turkish Menace.
"Employers are on the verge of wielding the most power of anybody in our country.
They can pick and choose from the debtweight, making or breaking people's lives in the bargain..."
You mean employers can pick quality over breathing dead! The good ones always have a job.
"The good ones always have a job" is an absolutely false statement. They're toxic residue sitting atop a thrice picked over carcass. The good ones don't last long.
"suppose a collapse in U.S. imports is one way to rebalance the world economy ... "
Works for me !
heh. Nicely said
Anyway "Za vashe zdorovye" Tovarisch ! -Cheers Comrades. After Bernake were all Commies now and without firing a shot.
I'll need some rum before this is all over ...
"Canada has been invading the U.S. for many years. "
Ya'! Thanks Glod that the Mexicanos stay on their side of the border;)
"when it was the last time USA itself was attacked from neighbouring countries?"
Is there a single country in the world the US doesn't have a trade (in people) surplus with?
"It's easy to have a strong bottom line in Q1 when you've laid off 5-10 percent (or more) of your workforce."
Not only lower payroll, but all that Sick/Vacation time comes off the books. It's a big deal-
Other Deficits much higher