Looking at the chart, it doesn't look like the yield spreads are predictive at all! They look like lagging indicators with spreads only really going up once you are already in a recession.
Well, my wife got canned today, so they're on the right track.
Carrying to new thread.
Hey Hoopajoops, what practice area are you in?
BIG LAW corporate, the biggest there is. I am right now replacing names and dates on an SEC filing and, very occasionally, drafting an extra paragraph here or there. Of course I had to attend the very best schools and get the best grades at those schools to be worthy of such a job, not because it's particularly demanding of skill or intellect, but because the very fact that the best and brightest are hired is what the company is purchasing with its dollars. What the best and brightest might be skilled at or whether they would make particularly good biglaw attorneys is a totally separate matter.
-------
http://www.afterthecrash.net - After the Crash, a blog shared by the CR Commenting Community. Hoopajoop on over.
This hiring of the best and brightest just to say you hired the best and brightest is, by the way, one of the things that is destroying our economy. Credentials trump ability in such a system, which, but for huge government effort towards subsidizing education, is a mere stone's throw away from a static caste system. Welcome to the new Argentinian States of America.
-------
http://www.afterthecrash.net - After the Crash, a blog shared by the CR Commenting Community. Hoopajoop on over.
maybe the paper tracks a different spread?
or data mining?
that would mean an unemployment rate of maybe 13% or so?
Looks like peak spread signals the end of a recession.
So it has to get worse before it gets better.
So which is right, the equity market or the bond & labor markets? I weep for all of our puts.
This is blasphemous!
The Federal Reserve dictates terms of all credit, if it did not then these levers would be connected to nothing! ... see .... huh ... the levers... they do nothing, the LEVERS DO NOTHING! Why have you forsaken us Alan Greenspan?!
His name tag, what is that. There's another name underneath... Alejandro Grinspun. We have been fooled all along. It is all too clear now. dios mio
⡑⡓⡏
Top Chinese Banker: Dollar Soon Irrelevant
http://moneynews.newsmax.com/streettalk/china_dollar_irrelevant/2009/04/...
btw, Alejandro Grinspun was Argentina's Central Bank president when inflation spun out of control and resigned when he couldn't meet IMF demands, all this not too long after Argentina nationalized the debts of major private banks (eg what are now Citigroup, Bank of America, JP Morgan, Deutschebank, etc) which is what led to them seizing the savings of everyday people
What are the odds...
⡑⡓⡏
for their easter present, i hedged my entire family. so now, they'll never advance, but just break even. 
monta's ankle:
I was wondering the same thing about the rate - my very rough thumbnail is that it puts us at about 11 - 12%. Figure that the starting U/E rate when this started was about 5.6% and that we're now about 8.1%, so 5M lost since beginning is about 2.5%.
Another 7.8M lost will be about 1.5X lost thus far.
1.5 X 2.5% = 3.75% add'l rate.
8.1% + 3.75% = 11.85% U-3 rate by time said and done.
Like I said, really back of the envelope stats.
homedad43
I think we might have to use the execution of bankers as an economic predictor. At least that will solve the problem directly..
Scrooge McDuck
I said it earlier and I'll say it again, then China takes the biggest hit of any single foreign creditor or country in the immediate and near terms (destruction of savings, and also demand for exports as their calculated exchange rate position gets tossed around)
⡑⡓⡏
Basel Too
If you don't keep quiet about it, you'll have a lot of people wanting you to handle their investments. Personal and Business don't mix
⡑⡓⡏
I think we might have to use the execution of bankers as an economic predictor.
I think the Weekly Pirate Raids series is one of the best indicators around.
The chinese people are usually more tactful than this, so I have a feeling that they are *really* scared that Butch Cassidy and the sundance kids will really jump into the gorge.
so now, they'll never advance, but just break even.
Short not breaking even and you may find a way to profit. Once you successfully accomplish this, I'll have a job for you at Hoopajoops Umbrella Enterprises.
-------
http://www.afterthecrash.net - After the Crash, a blog shared by the CR Commenting Community. Hoopajoop on over.
CR,
out of curiosity, how do you denote the shaded/recession areas on your charts? Is it a specific feature of Office 07, or is it a trick like manually drawing rectangles
⡑⡓⡏
EHP,
The asian miracle was built on neo-mercantilism.. it had to fail.
It is sad to say this but the japanese who cut back their consumption after the crisis sealed the fate of their economy.. that and their low birth rate. The ideal capitalist economy is where everyone spends and keeps the others employed.. or the state supplements the incomes of the jobless to help them consume. As long as the money is recycled, no harm is done..
From last thread,
Balckhalo, I did mean go short insurnace! Sorry!
On the charts,
like most charts it seem totally useless until 5 years after the fact, so for what its worth today:
What strikes me is the long "spread differential" during times of stress and notice the sharp and short snap in the current one. It bears no semblance to the historical patterns, so either it is useless or it means a great deal. Hate technical analysis!
Newsflash!! They have already jumped!
//The chinese people are usually more tactful than this, so I have a feeling that they are *really* scared that Butch Cassidy and the sundance kids will really jump into the gorge.//
Asian economies require a 'New Deal' and healthy pensions + more consumption.. otherwise they will not come out of this in one piece.
Lucifer,
I did reply, but I think the thread may have already been dead. In any case, such an idea is not objectionable. You just need to frame it correctly for the public. But the public is not the problem, it is all the factory owners who have disproportionately benefited under current policies, and they have influence on political decision makers
⡑⡓⡏
China will use the rest of its dollars to buy oil for their new cars. Then they will want to be paid in soy beans. Oil producers will want soybeans too. We'll get our dollars back.
They won't go far.
"for their easter present, i hedged my entire family. so now, they'll never advance, but just break even"
so you've hopped your family of funds up the hedgerow? brilliant!
China will use the rest of its dollars to buy oil for their new cars. Then they will want to be paid in soy beans. Oil producers will want soybeans too. We'll get our dollars back.
They won't go far.
That's the real danger of these inflationary Fed bailouts - they could devastate the real incomes of the US middle class if they only create pressure on commodities, and none on personal incomes.
EHP,
I read your reply, and I think that you understand the problem too.
I do not think human beings change for the 'right' reasons.. so I do not think that those in power will willingly change. This is going to occur after a change in the mandate of heavens.. and that will almost certainly cause a lot of pain and death before it occurs.
Remember that it took ww1 and GD1 to cut the legs from under colonialism and ww2 to give it the death blow.
I wonder how much corporate bonds the Chinese government owns....I say we give them Prada/KFC/Brad Pitt and call it even.
The USA was like China (workers rights, pay etc) before GD1. It took GD1to make people see the light.. at least partially.
ac:
Unfortunately, that's exactly what's going to happen. How they could even think that personal income could gain traction with such an oversupply of labor to existing need is simply boneheaded.
Ain't no "could" about it.
homedad43
"I'll have a job for you at Hoopajoops Umbrella Enterprises"
Ermm... do you mean umbrella in the holding-company sense, or umbrella as in a cane-like object used to jam Hoopajoops lozenges into place?
Wait....I've seen this movie before. Oh god, Chinese Hippies are taking over the world.
"I say we give them Prada/KFC/Brad Pitt and call it even."
I praise the wisdom of the common man.
Lucifer, my brokerage is proud of its prompt executions. So we'll see.
a cane-like object used to jam Hoopajoops lozenges into place?
It's an umbrella-like object, because the hook in the handle is essential to its proper use and function to secure the the posterior deposit lozenge from unexpected and sudden liquidity events of unusual volatility and volume.
-------
http://www.afterthecrash.net - After the Crash, a blog shared by the CR Commenting Community. Hoopajoop on over.
homedad43,
If we do not change that thinking, we will soon lose civil society. But you are right in that we will have to look into the abyss before most people get their personal enlightenment.
The trick is to not fall into the abyss.
Thought everyone would find this interesting. The law firms clearly do not see any signs of a major recovery anytime soon and are really suffering on the corporate side because there are no private equity deals, IPOs, or M&A activity. They are making some unprecedented moves around recruitment and salaries, deferring start dates and in some cases rescinding offers for incoming associates. There is a summary of this at http://lawfirmchaos.blogspot.com. It seems interesting that they are making such drastic decisions so far in advance. At the least it suggests that they believe the recovery will take a long time.
I prefer guillotines or incinerators.
//Lucifer, my brokerage is proud of its prompt executions. So we'll see.//
CR - here is the link
http://people.bu.edu/sgilchri/research/GYZ_30Mar2009.pdf
Please note that the authors construct their own bond indices, so one should not draw conclusions about their paper by looking at Moody's charts
so you've hopped your family of funds up the hedgerow? brilliant!
My parents have never owned stocks, thank god. But they have *MASSIVE* utility bills; so they've benefited tremendously from deflation. Now they own a basket of corresponding ETFs in case hyperinflation kicks.
Yes, something along those lines. I thought perhaps drawn and quartered as it employs leverage. Tranches of bankers.
Here's a good REO/banker story that was witnessed by the BF:
Today in the upper middle class Atlanta suburb of Dunwoody, a landscaping truck pulled up in a high priced neigborhood. Two scruffy looking guys with dirty t-shirts hopped out of the truck carrying crowbars. They headed for a very expensive newly foreclosed townhouse. A woman pulled up behind them in a car & also headed for the townhouse. When confronted by neighbors, the group said they were representing the bank & had come to change the locks on the foreclosed townhouse. Neighbors called the police, who confirmed that the group was in fact from a bank. The townhouse the banks' representatives were about to break into had a $3000+ mahagony front door & door jambs. But they were going to totally destroy the door with crow bars so the bank or the bank's REO "asset management" company could save a couple of dollars by not calling a locksmith. The police had to make them call a locksmith.
Just 53% Say Capitalism Better Than Socialism
Thursday, April 09, 2009
Only 53% of American adults believe capitalism is better than socialism.
The latest Rasmussen Reports national telephone survey found that 20% disagree and say socialism is better. Twenty-seven percent (27%) are not sure which is better.
Adults under 30 are essentially evenly divided: 37% prefer capitalism, 33% socialism, and 30% are undecided. Thirty-somethings are a bit more supportive of the free-enterprise approach with 49% for capitalism and 26% for socialism. Adults over 40 strongly favor capitalism, and just 13% of those older Americans believe socialism is better.
http://www.rasmussenreports.com/public_content/politics/general_politics...
I'm guessing the paper means the spread between low-risk and medium-risk corporate bonds. When both lines go up by the same amount, that is just interest rates fluctuating, but when the medium-risk (BBB/Baa) rises more than the low-risk (AAA) then it indicates a slowing in the economy.
"Ermm... do you mean umbrella in the holding-company sense?"
----------
i think he meant Umbrella in the "Resident Evil" sense.
Did the survey report what percentage of Americans know what Socialism is? I think you'll find that 33% think socialism is better but only 7% can tell you what socialism is.
A real big hitting partner at the top law firm Sullivan & Cromwell was escorted out of the office today by security, and summarily removed from the firm website. I can't convey to people here who don't understand what this firm is and how it conducts itself how alarming this development is. This is absolutely unheard of, and I fear it may portend something terrible coming down the pike.
-------
http://www.afterthecrash.net - After the Crash, a blog shared by the CR Commenting Community. Hoopajoop on over.
Only 53% of American adults believe capitalism is better than socialism.
What do the remaining 47% know about socialism? It is an "anywhere but here" attitude, not a serious preference
CR,
What would the various unemployment rates be if we lost an additional 7.8 million jobs?
With Advocates' Help, Squatters Call Foreclosures Home
Through a small advocacy group of local volunteers called Take Back the Land, [Ms. Omega] moved from a friend's couch into a newly empty house that sold just a few years ago for more than $400,000.
Michael Stoops, executive director of the National Coalition for the Homeless, said about a dozen advocacy groups around the country were actively moving homeless people into vacant homes - some working in secret, others, like Take Back the Land, operating openly.
What would the various unemployment rates be if we lost an additional 7.8 million jobs?
FYI - total of 5.1 Mil jobs have been lost since Jan-2008 as measured by non-farm payroll so it does not take into account subsequent rehiring. (yes, yes, seasonally adjusted, I know 
)
where my peoples at!
"I fear it may portend something terrible coming down the pike."
Terrible for who? Bankers? Lawyers?
dc1000: did you get your BK finalized?
I'm going to introduce the "nades uncertainty principle" (Yes similar to the Heisenberg uncertainty principle)
It says that once something is identified as a true predictor it ceases to be predictive in the future.
I'm trademarking that mofo! 
.........................
I'm here dc!
Working on another hard bid. Only 20 general contractors bidding on this one...
Wish me luck! /end snark!
Cheers all!
........................... (and over and out)
It says that once something is identified as a true predictor it ceases to be predictive in the future.
When applied to financial markets, it would be called "efficient market hypothesis"
Let's say you have $10 Millon (I don't) to put to work in the next 3-7 years. What the heck would make sense to invest in? So this is like Brewster's Millions, you have to invest all of the $10 Million by the end of the end of year 7 ... and can do so in tranches. If one scenario for re-balancing global trade is hypothetically a re-birth of U.S. manufacturing due to a de-valued dollar, I wonder what products we'll be able to make competitively and where will the customer growth come from? With consumer spending maybe re-setting at a permanently new level, lower prices due to over-capacity in the global production sector, fewer customers due to slack in the labor markets, and discretionary income / purchasing power of customers that do need to buy stuff weakened by inflation, what the heck is going to drive growth in the next cycle ... say a few years after a "sluggish recovery," assuming a stagflationary prolonged recession, rather than a much more severe global depression (still my base case).
Any hypotheses?
Hoopajoops LTD (member) wrote on Thu, 04/09/2009 - 6:15pm.
A real big hitting partner at the top law firm Sullivan & Cromwell was escorted out of the office today by security, and summarily removed from the firm website.
A partner? The people who incorporated Edison Electric? Wow. Just... wow.
[dup deleted]
MrM - good point... 
had the creditors meeting today as a matter of fact. personal chapter 11's getting file imminently. we're going to force a strip of the 2nd on the house, hopefully work a modification on the first and then use that class's approval of our plan to cram down on the other classes.
in the mean time, i'm the new CFO of a multi-campus school with several medium sized real estate development deals to do in the next 18 months.
we bought cars with cash, dumped the leases, on our way to having most debts discharged, all while protecting our most valuable real estate assets (multimember LLCs).
just today I said to our lawyer, this system seems perverse! and it is. and i feel great about it. no shame here. this may be a banner year for me and I'll have filed 3-5 BK's!
Hey dc:
how things going down there?
By the way (per O H Chick's previous comment) - having a $3000 effin' mahogany front door is wonderfully symbolic of the whole mess. Hell, that's worth more than my minivan.
homedad43
Congrats man, you're made!
Any hypotheses?
Become a vulture, either directly purchasing hard assets from distressed firms or buy debt claims in BK proceedings.
just today I said to our lawyer, this system seems perverse!
seems like you just did your own personal LBO, or a "good dc1000, bad dc1000" spinoff.
Maybe we can call you dcTrump from now on...
Here's the paper (PDF) if anyone is interested:
http://www.ecb.int/events/pdf/conferences/fmms/presentation_gilchrist.pdf
homedad- doing well. better than in a long long time actually. for the first time since '05 the momentum is positive with upward trends. i also quit drinking which helps!
to get back on topic a little bit - most all of my real estate and finance peers are F'ed. I am lucky that I saw education as growth industry a few years ago and did some very valuable professional development leaving me with a unique set of skills that are in high demand right now.
dc:
congrats on the new job. Figured that you'd land on the feet. So let me get this straight since my lingo on the BK is not that great...you're able to stay in the existing home?
Also glad that you wised up about autos...ya wanna buy a nine y/o chevy minivan?
Opportunity cost for this baby equals about 7 large tubs of cinema popcorn.
homedad43
seems like you just did your own personal LBO, or a "good dc1000, bad dc1000" spinoff.
that is about right. i mean, corporations can do it all the time so why not me? since we decided to go this route, i've been trying to work it to the fullest extent. no use half-assing it. if you're going to sacrifice your FICO at the altar of the BK court, you might as well make it work for you.
within 120 days I'll be as fresh as a new born baby, employed in a growth industry with no debt, crammed down home mortgages - lean and mean and ready for whatever comes down the pike.
All those words and numbers. Couldn't they have boiled that report down to a simple chart like CR does? Something simple like if the Baas go over 2% and the Aaas go over 1 percent, then a recession is on the way? But what happens when the Baas and Aaas go into the stratosphere? Is that something like Shock and Awe?
Gotta run. Be back later since have to take care of kid issue.
Now wife has the flu...
I'm scheduled for Saturday...
homedad43
Homedad43,
These are older townhouses--built about 15-20 years ago for people who (at that time) had the money to really afford them. But I do agree with your point ---similar (or even more costly) front doors are on all of the newer local McMansions.
Can we expect protectionism if job situation doesn't improve before next year's election?
"......i also quit drinking which helps!"
Best wishes, dc...............one of the best moves I made years ago - the family likes me now. Well, maybe not to THAT extent. [eg]
- - - - -
Black 
Ranch
re: partner leaving Sullivan and Cromwell
As per this, its someone called John O'Brien
http://abovethelaw.com/2009/04/john_obrien_leaves_sullcrom.php
-K
"Can we expect protectionism if job situation doesn't improve before next year's election? "
I'd like to see the H1-Bs go home. But free trade is a net win. Protectionism takes us down a bad road.
"I'd like to see the H1-Bs go home"
Why cause you cant compete?
"As per this, its someone called John O'Brien"
Thanks for the link.
"Why cause you cant compete? "
I have worked with a LOT of H1-Bs, and they are fine folks and do great work. But in my experience they we not so exceptional that domestic labor could not do the job as well or better. Which is out of line with the stated propose of the visa.
In my experience, they were used by large corps to flood specific markets and depress wages.
"Why cause you cant compete? "
...........most of H1-B holders dont speak English well and have some communication problems......but they are skilled workers......I dont think kick-ass-out-of-this-country policy can solve unemployment issue......it's another linear thinking .......kindergarten stuff..........
Indians may not want to buy your stuff either.. given that capitalism 1.0 is a ponzi scheme that depends on continous growth to hide its flaws.. let's just say they can hurt you far more than you can hurt them.
//I'd like to see the H1-Bs go home. //
Another interesting tidbit about that law firm, check this out (and the roster is, well...). http://www.sullcrom.com/practices/detail.aspx?service=58
Hmm.
I think that many westerners do not understand (or want to understand) one basic fact/ change.
You require the market of those people more than they require your products. They can do without your stuff, but your system (in its current form) will implode with a period of no growth.
dc1000 - glad to hear things are on the up for you & the family.
The definition of insanity is doing the same thing over and over and expecting different results.
.............if we send foreign workers back to their countries , some skillful workers wages increase..............and this diminish product competence due to price increase.........eventually this will level down already depressed domestic economy.........
"This hiring of the best and brightest just to say you hired the best and brightest is, by the way, one of the things that is destroying our economy. "
I concur. I used to work with a bunch of freshly minted Harvard MBAs. I'd been on the job for a few years and knew what to do based on common sense and experience. They did not, but it didn't stop them from fucking things up.
Now it is 15 years later. Perhaps they have paid off their loans for that fancy harvard education. The ones I still know are deeply in debt with their Mercedes and McMansions. I'm retired and shorting their companies. Perhaps they teach you to borrow more than you can make at Harvard. it would seem so.
The fact that the "wisdom" says that you have to hire all the top people from one B-school pretty much dooms you. I used to mock some of these people for their basic lack of math skills. It wasn't hard.
Pretty lame what passes at Harvard B school. George W. Bush being a fine example. Although I think he might have nailed it when he said, "this suckas goin' down".
my local economy has bragged about being recession proof for 20 years. It is crashing hard. Go long if you must. I don't advise it. But, then again, i can do math.
I'd like to see the H1-Bs go home
Not going into free market and free trade issues, just wanted to highlight that people on H1-B visas still pay US taxes, including social security and medicare taxes. Since most of them are not going to use these services, foreigners on H1-B visas pay to support American elderly. Jus' sayin'
I'd be curious to see what the chart looks like overlaid on a rolling 1-yr S&P return line.
I think that the best use of a significant % of the faculty and alumni of many ivy league universities is as incinerator fuel.
"But the public is not the problem, it is all the factory owners who have disproportionately benefited under current policies, and they have influence on political decision makers"-EHP
That is all.
Not going into free market and free trade issues, just wanted to highlight that people on H1-B visas still pay US taxes, including social security and medicare taxes. Since most of them are not going to use these services, foreigners on H1-B visas pay to support American elderly. Jus' sayin'
Just saying crap. H1-Bs are helping TPTB to impoverish the last middle-class people in the US.
"I'd like to see the H1-Bs go home"
...........better look deep inside of yourself......is this notion brought from pure economic point of view or racial difference(
?...........
Im the big fucking sellout.
I got obscenly rich...
boo boo,...
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=b9UbUhnKjc8
SECURITY !!!SECURITY !!!SECURITY !!!
here's big dipper....for the white cracker fans.
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=OjCbGSbSTFc
totalannhilation,
Many french nobles also thought that they were invincible and society would not change.. but then there was the guillotine.
"this may be a banner year for me and I'll have filed 3-5 BK's! "
Perhaps if you'd listened to advice on this board in the past two years you wouldn't need these bailouts. I and others warned you about DC real estate. You didn't listen.
I must say you have balls to show up here and brag about your BKs. But that appears to be the American way these days. Fuck up, get a bail out, party on.
Banner year, indeed.
totalannhilation,
Many french nobles also thought that they were invincible and society would not change.. but then there was the guillotine.
Credentials trump ability in such a system, which, but for huge government effort towards subsidizing education, is a mere stone's throw away from a static caste system. I think one of the Chinese dynasties had an elaborate civil serice system with demanding competive entrance exams that tested skills irrelevant to the actual job.
-------
Also Rosebud Junk Co
dc1000 says:
I'll have filed 3-5 BK's!
In retrospect I liked you better when you were suicidal, you POS.
H1-Bs are helping TPTB to impoverish the last middle-class people in the US.
The middle class was destroyed when manufacturing was moved overseas and when growth in income was replaced with growth in debt , not when foreigners came over here to work in white collar jobs that the natives were not able or willing to take for the same pay.
Off Topic... but hey, we can all relax, everything is going to be fine!
http://news.yahoo.com/s/ap/20090409/ap_on_bi_ge/economy_leveling_off
To plagiarize just a little:
At last, economy leveling off - but bumps not over
By JEANNINE AVERSA, AP Economics Writer
... And the economy is still shrinking in the April-June quarter - perhaps at a rate of 2 to 2.5 percent, some analysts say.
When will it grow again? Maybe the final quarter of the year.
Read the whole thing, and tell me you aren't totally convinced. I'm not, but I am SOOO negative by nature.
Leave dc alone. He's not bragging. He's just reporting.
Good luck with your new job, dc.
"Protectionism takes us down a bad road."
Now why is that? You hear this opinion expressed, but in most civilizations great and minor during a "belt-tightening", this is the avenue traveled by most.
- - - - -
Black Ranch
totalannhilation - that's a nice handle. Punishers, Doomsday Machines and a great soundtrack!
I assume the dropped 'i' is intentional
not when foreigners came over here to work in white collar jobs that the natives were not able or willing to take for the same pay.
For some actual knowledge on how this works in the real world, see http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=TCbFEgFajGU
"The idea is NOT to attract a qualified, interested American applicant"
Breathe in, breathe out. There is a secret I'd like to share. A simple solution to all these crimes is making itself known.
Do nothing. The system is cannibalizing itself and the faster they print and hide problems the sooner it will crash. Without job creation and steadily increasing unemployment you will have default, hardship and populist driven punishment.
The level of stress and the constant bombardment of continuing affronts is bad for your mental health. Let it go and enjoy your day, your family and your life. Take some basic steps to ensure you have the basics covered. The endgame is in motion but the end also means a new beginning.
The good times always end but so do the bad times. The infrastructure, educated population and means to rebuild will remain. Stop playing the game. Let them fail.
---------
Being kind might be the most important thing anyone can do right now.
http://www.nytimes.com/2009/04/09/health/09stress.html?_r=1&ref=health
Glad you are around dc and that things are moving for you!
For some actual knowledge on how this works in the real world
bobn, I've worked with so many H1-Bs that I do not need youtube to know how it works in the real world.
Abuse is everywhere, what's new?
EvilHenryPaulson (member) wrote on Thu, 04/09/2009 - 5:36pm.
Scrooge McDuck
I said it earlier and I'll say it again, then China takes the biggest hit of any single foreign creditor or country in the immediate and near terms (destruction of savings, and also demand for exports as their calculated exchange rate position gets tossed around)
Forest:Trees
EHP-
I might suggest that the path is not indicative of the goal.
i read down to 622 and saw
DC1000
great to hear from you!!!
mt
bobn, I've worked with so many H1-Bs that I do not need youtube to know how it works in the real world.
Sorry that one was too long for your attention span. Here's one that's only 19 seconds and has the money quote:
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=QR1Jke2NWTA
Abuse is everywhere, what's new?
Right, "every one was making and getting liar's loans, what's wrong with that?" So why shouldn't we game the the system to hire indentured foreigners instead of Americans?
EvilHenryPaulson (member) wrote on Thu, 04/09/2009 - 5:40pm.
CR,
out of curiosity, how do you denote the shaded/recession areas on your charts? Is it a specific feature of Office 07, or is it a trick like manually drawing rectangles
EHP,
The easiest way to do it on a line graph is to add a data series called "Recession", fill it with either zero or 100 and then change the chart type for that series to a bar graph.
---
r0m30
DC1000
great to hear from you!!!
WTF??!? This asswipe dc1000 is bragging about how he screwed everybody left and right and people here are OK with him?
My wife asked me what that meant so I'll just say that political systems have their own "economics"
bobn - The fact is: The USA will have to open the flood gates to others.....the massive debt can only be repaid by increasing immigration because as every 58 seconds an american retires, the US needs labour, needs rate payers, needs bodies to serve as vehicles for future taxes...SIMPLE
If you put two economists in a room, you get two opinions, unless one
of them is Lord Keynes, in which case you get three opinions.
- Winston Churchill
I have nothing more to add, except:
I would never assocaite or do business with a guy that has filed 3 BK's.
A walking time bomb and an accident waiting to happen.
The risk associated with offshoring far out weighs the risk of inshoring.
Technological advantage is what made US a super power.
OT:
Wells Fargo also said that its dividend cut to 5 cents a share from 34 cents a share, announced on March 6, will benefit retained earnings by about $1.25 billion in additional common equity per quarter.
That will bring Wells' tangible common equity ratio, a conservative measure of banks' financial strength, to more than 3.1% at the end of March.
Also see: First Quarter Dividend Statistics - What to Make of Them?
http://seekingalpha.com/article/129520-first-quarter-dividend-statistics...
While March proved positive for equities, with the S&P 500 up 8.5% from February, the month also capped one of the worst quarters for shareholders, with companies slashing dividends by the most since Standard & Poor's began keeping records in 1955....Companies announced 46 dividend cuts totaling a record $42 billion in the first quarter, with the slashing expected to cut actual payments by 18% in the second quarter, the worst since a 24% decline in the third quarter of 1958, according to Howard Silverblatt, senior index analyst at Standard & Poor's. Last year [2008] brought 61 dividend cuts totaling a combined…$40.3 billion, while the first quarter of 2009 brought 44 more cuts totaling $42 billion."
See yah
I have nothing more to add, except:
"some skillful workers wages increase..............and this diminish product competence due to price increase"
Hmm, looking at the U-6, I do not have too much concern with regard to wage increases.
new thread....
Bobn
DC1000 got caught in the squeeze,
he tried not to let people go from his company till all was lost incl his savings on the chance that he could save his employees jobs
hes posted here since 2005 thru good times and bad
he's fighting for survival , trying to keep his head above water in a sea of bankstas
"foreigners on H1-B visas pay to support American elderly. Jus' sayin' "
There are plenty of USA natives of all elasticities, who would also be willing to provde that support. My view would be to take care of our own first. If there REALLY is some key industry where foreign nationals are the only source of talent, then I am fine with H1-B in that instance. But it is my experience that that is not the case in general.
"is this notion brought from pure economic point of view or racial difference"
I guarantee my view is not racially based. I was a PjM for a team of developers that came from every imaginable background, and had some very good H1-B's to work with. My dislike for the visas is solely based on their mis-use.
"The USA will have to open the flood gates to others"
I agree wholeheartedly. I just do not think that H1-B is the method to do so, and not when unemployment is rising at the rate it is.
DC1000 got caught in the squeeze,
Caught himself, more like, IIRC.
he tried not to let people go from his company till all was lost incl his savings on the chance that he could save his employees jobs
This is admirable, if true. But he still sounds like he's bragging about how slick he is.
"Now why is that? You hear this opinion expressed, but in most civilizations great and minor during a "belt-tightening", this is the avenue traveled by most."
Because goods that we are not currently geared to produce efficiently get wildly expensive and goods that we produce efficiently and have an excess of fall off a cliff when the ROW retaliates.
So, every one who is working in an efficient export industry loses their job and they can't get employed in the inefficient industry, because it has not geared up to take them on yet.
This leads to deflation and staggering unemployment. Prices for all good fall, but no one can buy them because they would be unemployed.
Only 53% of American adults believe capitalism is better than socialism.
What % of American adults could give definitions of "capitalism" and "socialism", other than "what we have in the US" and "what they have in France" respectively?
I read a lot of bashing of Harvard and Yale. Remember that many grads go into other businesses or non-profits. The group on Wall Street is mostly self-selecting.
Also, is it possible to say the local unemployed-in-record-numbers programmers are capable of doing the jobs currently done by H1-B's? Is it possible to say that without someone else coming along and charging "racism"?
It's amazing that some people who believe in the mechanics of "supply and demand" believe the mechanics don't function in the labor market. Now *that's* successful corporate propaganda.
Its understandable. What Americans call Socialism "Social Democracy" has more than a few advantages over the kleptocratic system we have in the US.
There is a lot less poverty, better education, better health care at least for folks who in the US would have "emergency room or nothing" and for some insured people as well.
The trade offs are heavy but its not by any means an ill thought out.
Social-D sucks for high achievers but as much as we don't want to admit it, thats very few of us.
It also seems to suppress birth rates a bit and increase secularism but thats a feature not a bug
>> The risk associated with offshoring far out weighs the risk of inshoring.
The *same* workers are more effective when onsite than offshore. That's my opinion (based on experience) and the opinion of the other managers I work with. So, if you're thinking that a reduction in H1 caps will lead companies to replace H1-B's mostly with offshore staff, I expect not.
My company is hardly hiring any local talent. I see those technical school ads on TV and wonder what happens to the grads who went into debt to get an education.
And politicians and industry reps ask why the US lags in science and technology education...
"The *same* workers are more effective when onsite than offshore."
Over the long run, onsite and offshore may equate to the same.
dc1000 wrote on Thu, 04/09/2009 - 6:31pm.
had the creditors meeting today as a matter of fact. personal chapter 11's getting file imminently. we're going to force a strip of the 2nd on the house, hopefully work a modification on the first and then use that class's approval of our plan to cram down on the other classes.
in the mean time, i'm the new CFO of a multi-campus school with several medium sized real estate development deals to do in the next 18 months.
we bought cars with cash, dumped the leases, on our way to having most debts discharged, all while protecting our most valuable real estate assets (multimember LLCs).
just today I said to our lawyer, this system seems perverse! and it is. and i feel great about it. no shame here. this may be a banner year for me and I'll have filed 3-5 BK's!
puke! In case you haven't caught on, this is a blog for people that look down on financial crooks like you. Whilst what you're doing is 'legal' it's the kind of loophole manipulation that has gotten the world into this mess. God I hope your employers find out about you and kick you into the gutter.
Cheers!
Bijan
I read the paper last evening. I was largely lost in the specifics of the math, but thought the approach rigorous and the results were both impressive and well-based.
Appreciate the note that the authors developed their own bond indices for the purpose of this paper, which--as they point out--are more timely than credit rating changes. (What isn't more timely? one might ask.) That said, given the apparent power of this approach, what are the chances that a rating agency, investment bank, or blogger (hint: CR) might take on the task of regularly preparing and publishing a corporate bond expectation of default index like the one used in this study?
"Looking at the chart, it doesn't look like the yield spreads are predictive at all! They look like lagging indicators with spreads only really going up once you are already in a recession."
exactly.
CR, did you show the spreads with one year lag on the graph? otherwise there's no predictive power at all, the peaks of the spreads and the end of the recessions just coincide.
"It looks like this spread has predicted a few extra recessions!"
I would guess the reason for this is that the bias in BLS/official reporting has hidden those recessions from most of the public. For the past 25 years, a "bipartisan" group of politicians, financial types, etc. has changed the methodology used to compute various data series such as CPI, GDP deflator, and the various unemployment rates. Generally speaking, the result has been to put lipstick on a pig and sell it as if it were a beautiful woman. Just to take one example, by changing the components and the weights used in calculating CPI, the government has succeeded in systematically understating that data series. One automatic effect is to overstate GDP growth, tending to obscure recessions. (BTW, the U.S. government is the world's largest debtor, with unfunded liabilities > $50T. If you don't think they would be motivated to shortchange their obligees, guess again.)
I recommend checking out the website by analyst/economist John Williams called "Shadow Government Statistics": www.shadowstats.com
(And no, this is not an ad, just my opinion.)
The prediction made in the article is far worse than the consensus among economists and financial professionals. On my website I explain in a series of articles why our current economic environment is different than those of the past, and why efforts to "fix it" contain risks and unintended consequences.
http://abovethelaw.com/2009/04/john_obrien_leaves_sullcrom.php
looks like the Sullivan Cromwell partner may have been into shady dealings..
First?