Oh, and wake up, nemo
....this is China loaning to Chinese endeavors, correct?
I would imagine the "late payment penalty" might be a bit more egregious than in our system.
- - - - -
Black 
Ranch
Oh, and wake up, nemo
..........too early for Nemo........
Poor China, this is terrible.
....this is China loaning to Chinese endeavors, correct?
I would imagine the "late payment penalty" might be a bit more egregious than in our system.
- - - - -
Black Ranch
Most of China is feudal--they need infrastructure--they need to modernize. This spending spree will be a very good thing for them in the long run.
OT, but Y-O-Y change in State unemployment just out. OUCH!! Look at North Carolina, U-3 up 110%
http://www.bls.gov/web/laumstch.htm
Very ugly numbers.
If China can turn their excess capacity inward they will have a fast growing economy like the Post WWII US did. I think they are in a better position the we are now. which is in the wrong direction.
I believe you all missed this in the FDIC public comment post - a must-read public comment from Benjamin Dover III (benn.dover), that i swiped from ml-implode. HIlarious that they actually published it:
"The biggest of these hidden dangers is the degree of bad loans in China."
I don't think they'd have a BK problem - their people would just disappear, the companies would just continue with someone else at the helm.
- - - - -
Black Ranch
Lobbyist Ben Dover, are you Benn Dover?? what a weird posting coincidence
Also, I wonder how much excess capacity china's innards can handle...
China has too much capacity and unemployment is growing fast although there has been some movement towards building greener manufacturing capacity. Still they basically seem to be taking the same approach as the US, buying more time and hoping things return to the way they were before the real trouble starts.
So in about 30 years China will be the center of the Ponzi-verse, and the rest of the world will be the suckers? The world needs more lending.
BSR;
In China, fraudsters are jailed and maimed, if lucky, in the USA, we give them bonuses and/or new more powerful jobs.
"Lobbyist Ben Dover, are you Benn Dover?"
No, might be related like Obama and Cheney family tree.
That was funny!
".....a must-read public comment from Benjamin Dover III (benn.dover), that i swiped from ml-implode. [Hilarious] that they actually published it:"
Just another example of our government not reading beforehand what they publish and pass......
- - - - -
Black Ranch
exactly, Mel - you and I CAN agree at times.
- - - - -
Black Ranch
Whoever wrote the comment, that is pretty funny.
But what of the inflationary effect of all these extra Yuan in the system??
IIRC, I read some some analysis that much of the "new" lending in China was actually bringing loans onto the balance sheet, as if C brought their what - ~$1 T of off balance sheet loans - onto the balance sheet...neither very stimulatory nor inflationary.
OT but serious this time
Saw something on the nightly news coupla days ago that had me wondering. It was about an appraiser who was finding many homes abandoned before foreclosure -- and said the banks didin't know the homeownes had left. This smelled weird to me -- especially because I have heard some speculatoin about banks withholding REO listings or "dripping" them out slowly ---wondering if there is any truth to this- if banks have any incentive for holding on to REOs at this point rather than unloading fast as they can (trying to prop prices up?)
Don't complain about China. They are probably the only reason our cement, aluminum and other construction materials industries haven't imploded (yet). Let them build a coal plant every 4 days instead of every 5.
"Doesn't China already have too much capacity?"
So they're no smarter than we? I don't know whether to feel smug, or afraid.
Going to get interesting when this downturn doesn't end this year.. or next year....
Alo wrote on Sat, 04/11/2009 - 7:05am.
OT but serious this time
Saw something on the nightly news coupla days ago that had me wondering. It was about an appraiser who was finding many homes abandoned before foreclosure -- and said the banks didin't know the homeownes had left. This smelled weird to me -- especially because I have heard some speculatoin about banks withholding REO listings or "dripping" them out slowly ---wondering if there is any truth to this- if banks have any incentive for holding on to REOs at this point rather than unloading fast as they can (trying to prop prices up?)
Multiple speculations follow.
Makes sense for liquid but insolvent homemoaners to quietly slip out in the dark. They can start over elsewhere before the impairment on their credit shows. Besides there are still people who feel shame. they aren't going to notoriously resist the bank.
REO inventory is most definitely being "managed." Some is sheer overwhelming volume, some is administrative slowness, some is a legitimate attempt to holding pricing power and some is a blatant attempt to conceal losses.
If China is hell bent on pursing the US model their next "distraction" will be foreign adventurism. Any guesses where they'll focus those efforts? My bet is that for their own security that they won't be able to ignore the suffering of the Myanmar peoples under the yoke of their illegal junta government.
World Bank sees China recovery this year
Jonathan Watts in Beijing
guardian.co.uk, Tuesday 7 April 2009
China's injection of 4tn yuan into economy is likely to secure 6.5% growth and help pull rest of Asia out of slump, World Bank predicts.
The Chinese economy is likely to recover by the second half of this year and could help to pull Asia out of its slump, the World Bank forecast today.
Despite the contraction in overseas markets, the bank said Beijing's pump-priming measures would enable China to secure a growth rate of 6.5% this year.
"A ray of hope may be emerging with signs of China's economy bottoming out by mid-2009," the bank said. "A recovery in China, fuelled largely by the country's huge economic stimulus package, is likely to begin this year and take full hold in 2010, potentially contributing to the region's stabilisation, and perhaps recovery."
With gross domestic product (GDP) in other leading industrialised nations expected to contract, growth in China will be a welcome boost to the world economy and a further sign of its rising influence.
China has had double-digit growth for most of the past 30 years but its export sector, which accounts for 40% of GDP, has been hurt by the decline of demand from Europe, North America and Japan. In February, exports declined by 25.7%.
To make up for the shortfall, the government is pumping 4tn yuan (£396bn) into spending on public works, consumer subsidies and other economic stimulants.
Bank lending has increased and demand has grown for steel and power.
President Wen Jiabao said further pump-priming was possible if the world economic crisis worsened.
............never forget they are centralized economy system........ economic risk and turbulences can be controlled effectively , esp in recession era.........
BSR,
Agreement is contingent on perspective--I worked in very poor NYC ghettos and fear the consequences of some seemingly "right" decisions. Goodness doesn't trickle down, it gets hoarded. The world will never be perfect but I'll never consider myself a good person if I don't try to help the needier.
The safest way out of this panic is to inflate--and it's the solution that most hurts my pension, and is the one I want. I'm not a hero, I know I won't be forced to live in those ghettos, and I know letting the collapse happen quickly will lead to disaster. We're all Katrina victims now.
The comment by Ben Dover on PPIP was priceless. Good job!
Mel,
What did we do with the Katrina victims? We dispersed them. The ghetto model is so last depression. At least in this we learned that a concentrated mob is a dangerous mob. There won't be a repeat of the Bonus Marches only this time for pensioners.
...Doesn't China already have too much capacity?...
~~~~~~~~~~~~~~
The incarnation of American inability to fathom that China may use its wealth to build up it's own infrastructure.
Americans are aghast that China is not "forced" to lend it's earnings to american suckers (as was grandiloquently purported here last fall) . Hahaha .
I hope Jas Jain realizes that his comparing Americans to dopes was just an insult to these dopes .
BSR--First we did nothing to prevent Katrina victims, them we dispersed the poorest (and darkest). Our culture, businesses, and banks are concentrated in large cities--and they're gonna burn baby, burn. Think Newark, Detroit, Watts in every major city. Also think how not restricting guns plays out in this scenario.
As for pensioners, can one march with a walker or a wheelchair?
Black Star Ranch (member) wrote on Sat, 04/11/2009 - 9:31am.
I don't think they'd have a BK problem - their people would just disappear, the companies would just continue with someone else at the helm.
Nah, that is the movie Chinese Gvt, that is like the move FBI or the movie US Army.
Reality: Gvt. bureaucrats covering one-another's ass so nobody has to die. Bigger bibes to Big Brother Chui up the pipe. Everyone papers over failure but the losses stay in place. State - Quasi-Public Bank - GSE iron triangles. Inter-clique dogfights where apparatchiks send one-another to the gallows by winning office email battles and advancing the causes of people they have guanxi relationships with. "Let's all close our eyes and pretend until the money runs out."
They are as screwed as we are. The problem is, their denial is the end of the trans-pacific capital pump. When they get really strapped, they may even dump Treasuries perforce and not as a stratagem.
MEL wrote on Sat, 04/11/2009 - 10:34am.
Also think how not restricting guns plays out in this scenario.
In an entirely positive fashion? Seems to me like they are playing the exact role in undermining a bankrupt power structure that the Founding Fathers intended. Are you arguing that this morally bankrupt system needs more coercive control over the populace? Really? After just surviving the Bush admin?
"I know I won't be forced to live in those ghettos"
No one is Forced to live in the Ghetto. They failed to embrace the free public education we paid for.
Lobbyi$t Ben Dover wrote on Sat, 04/11/2009 - 7:38am.
"I know I won't be forced to live in those ghettos"
No one is Forced to live in the Ghetto. They failed to embrace the free public education we paid for.
This isn't the site to expand on this, so briefly, children growing up in a defective environment usually grow up defective. They have lowered expectations and expect to have short lives. They are the opposite of an economist's "reasonable" man.
Sounds similar to the 2003 housing boom.
.........China Turns a Corner as Spending Takes Hold .........
http://online.wsj.com/article/SB123934751932407099.html
.........same subject but different view....sometimes Bloomie distorts east asian economy situations ............
:: ::
Doesn't China already have too much capacity? - CR
:: ::
It has way way too much 'cheap' export capacity and nowhere near enough capacity targeted at 'sustainable' domestic consumption... and by 'sustainable' I don't mean 'Green Peace' approved industry - just plain old basics like potable water for everyone, sewage systems that work, land fills as opposed to 'mass dumps', safe & reliable food supply, easily accessible health care outside the major metros, education to the masses in rural China, etc.
All this activity would cycle a lot of yuan internally, employ people and NOT result in more export driven worldwide deflation.
If the Chinese lending results in this kind of 'capacity' then it will be all good - good for them, good for us, good for everyone. If it results in additional capacity to produce more cheap toys and trinkets for export then there will be tears all around.
Doesn't China already have too much capacity?
Trade wars and dumping comping to a country near you.
More analysis of the China economy with focus on exim yesterday at Forbes
Nice dodge.
"They failed to embrace the free public education we paid for. "
This is a thought bomb; a slogan. If true, did the children or the parents fail to embrace the educational system? In districts where children perform well in school, parents take an interest in their children's education. Why do parents take an interest in their children's education?
China has had double-digit growth for most of the past 30 years but its export sector, which accounts for 40% of GDP, has been hurt by the decline of demand from Europe, North America and Japan. In February, exports declined by 25.7%.
Why do my rudimentary math skills work out a 10% decline in GDP from those numbers?
MEL wrote on Sat, 04/11/2009 - 10:43am.
Lobbyi$t Ben Dover wrote on Sat, 04/11/2009 - 7:38am.
No one is Forced to live in the Ghetto. They failed to embrace the free public education we paid for.
Ludicrous on the face.
This isn't the site to expand on this, so briefly, children growing up in a defective environment usually grow up defective. They have lowered expectations and expect to have short lives. They are the opposite of an economist's "reasonable" man.
This isn' t the site to expand on this, so briefly, that is liberal cultural imperialism. Notice the language of pathology applied to alien lifeways. Thanks for carrying the white man's burden. You sure do see the ailments. The part where "they" are going to fix them by "growing up" into your cultural assumptions? Yeah, 'cause you did so much good fixing the problem for the last 60 years. Thanks for the housing projects, Uncle Sam, gonna accept any guilt for all the people they killed, or is it just time for Elmira to find another way to "cure" the kitty cat "patient"?
Isn't it fun to make your point in a rhetorical drive-by.
Reposting the Brad Setser write-up on the China March trade numbers:
Money quote is just past the very last graph, and it seems like a pretty big change in Setser's views:
Call me crazy, but judging from the trade data alone, I would say China experienced a recession in q4 2008 and q1 2009.
http://blogs.cfr.org/setser/2009/04/10/big-changes-but-not-much-adjustme...
From the Forbes piece RD posted:
The trade figures are in line with our expectations largely due to an improvement in trade financing in the international market.
What is the source of improvement? More government financing? Also from the Forbes piece:
Beijing has pledged to provide more policy support for its trade sector, and Minister of Commerce Chen Deming has said China must seize the opportunity of Western countries' current economic malaise to grab more global market share.
To support exporters, China has raised value added tax rebates on exports several times since the end of July, covering products such as textiles, furniture, toys, rubber and metals.
IMNSHO, this is the 'ends in tears' pathway per dryfly's analysis above - what we are seeing is not nascent recovery in China - rather, it is the desperate play to grab more deck space on the Titanic without recovery in the end markets (not happening given the U-3 and U-6 trajectory).
"This is a thought bomb; a slogan. If true, did the children or the parents fail to embrace the educational system? In districts where children perform well in school, parents take an interest in their children's education. Why do parents take an interest in their children's education?"
This is why my kids went to private school. Why do we leave children with abusive parents. We will take a dog away from an abusive owner but leave kids to fend for themselves. Why does the government encourage the Cash for kids program. It takes no money for a parent to be involved in their kids education public or private. We enable the continuing failure disguised as help. Our social programs of victimization are part of the economic destruction of our country. Reward the losers like the Mortgage help at the expense of the hard working stable Americans.
no Mel, I don't buy it - typical liberal white-speak down on the disadvantaged ("We will take care of our black brothers, boy"). It is and never was The FedGovs business to be "first-in" in New Orleans during Katrina. That was a State issue - take it up with NO.
"Our culture, businesses, and banks are concentrated in large cities--and they're gonna burn baby, burn."
.................no kidding. - we are in agreement again. That's why I've said for MONTHS, nothing will be solved until after we've looked around our feet at the smoldering ruins. It is also the only way to get rid of the disease that you so eloquently describe.
- - - - -
Black Ranch
Time to go plow the garden to help the Seniors out.
Sometimes the plan is okay, it's the execution that is found lacking. Housing projects might have been a good idea if they had been spread out over an entire city instead of located in one area, This isn't White Man's Burden, but it is White Man's Debt. If you treat a people like shit--be they Black, Brown, or White, expect them to smell. I guess it's perspective again, but having a large underclass--here or in China--is an economic drag.
China's problem is internal. I didn't think they could hold it together much past the Olympics. They have a restive population that will not disperse back to the countryside but they also don't have enough urban jobs to keep them productively employed. So far they've been maintaining the fiction of a modernizing economy with unsustainable stimuli.
>>after urban fixed-asset investment surged 26.5 percent in the first two months. ...
What exactly is an "urban fixed asset"? Are we talking another housing bubble, or are we talking about automobile bubble?
Lobbyi$t Ben Dover wrote on Sat, 04/11/2009 - 8:06am
Dude, you are going to cause some lefty entitlement heads to explode with those comments!
LOL.......Just working myself up before the milking.......
- - - - -
Black Ranch
What exactly is an "urban fixed asset"?
Infrastructure, factories, transit.
They have a restive population that will not disperse back to the countryside but they also don't have enough urban jobs to keep them productively employed. So far they've been maintaining the fiction of a modernizing economy with unsustainable stimuli.
At least, though, their consumers have the savings to increase their consumption - in principle the idea of stimulating consumption isn't crazy the way it is in the US.
Still, in practice China has made its recent wealth by adpoting more of a self-directed free market economy, and having the government step in and try to direct that system during downturns (i.e. apply stimulus) seems like it might ultimately imperil their newfound wealth.
Slightly OT, but protestors in Thailand have smashed windows and forced Asian leaders to evacuate Thailand, ending the ASEAN meeting. The heads of the World Bank and the IMF were also scheduled to appear, but the angry crowds say no.
The NYTimes has amazing photo of crowds smashing thru meeting area.
Am on family computer upstate and can't provide link.
Someone please add that link.
Thanks.
Reposting the Brad Setser write-up on the China March trade numbers:
I find reading Setser to be very enjoyable now that I'm no longer a bond bull.
The heads of the World Bank and the IMF were also scheduled to appear, but the angry crowds say no.
Can we have these guys show up at the next Federal Reserve board meeting?
"They have a restive population that will not disperse back to the countryside but they also don't have enough urban jobs to keep them productively employed."
Rob Dawg, why are they required to modernize at such a rapid pace regarding transforming jobs for their workforce. What is the issue with continuing the agricultural jobs/lifestyle for many...that already exist?
At least urban infrastructure doesn't include aircraft carrier battle groups--or maybe those are funded by central government spending not bank lending.
Seriously, I'm not sure if there is much validity to the idea that all stimulus spending should be productive for productive purposes. Bridges to nowhere, and all that. Anyone old enough will remember that back in the middle of the last century a fair amount of the U.S. government's defense spending was justified in terms of economic stimulus rather than military preparedness.
And as far as bad assets on bank balance sheets, why, right now, at the beginning of this century, the U.S. government is pioneering the solution to that problem. I'm sorry, I forgot, American banks have no bad assets, only mispriced assets. At least the Chinese guy calls a spade a spade . . .
Not sure how people can look at graphs like this and convincingly talk about Chinese recovery this year.
Does China have debtors prisons?
--------------------------------------------------------------------------
Learn the 7TH Amendment maggot!
Red Beckman - Fully Informed Jury
http://video.google.com/videoplay?docid=7385583011526915030&hl=en
Thanks Dawg
What a hoot! Give Ben a SIGTARP.
Rob Dawg, why are they required to modernize at such a rapid pace regarding transforming jobs for their workforce. What is the issue with continuing the agricultural jobs/lifestyle for many...that already exist?
The people with the agricultural jobs aren't happy - they want the urban lifestyle. Humans seem almost pathologically driven to compare themselves to others. When one part of a population sees another part getting wealthier at a faster rate they go nuts. This is the problem that really plagues capitalism - capitalism seems to simultaneously create more wealth and more inequality. Humans don't seem to really care that much that everybody is getting wealthier, only that they're getting wealthier at a slower or faster pace than their neighbor.
This creates immense political stresses within any country going through free market reforms - and provides the political motivation for returning to more socialized systems.
In the case of economic downturns it becomes especially acute because those who are wealthier often seem to weather the storm better, increasing the sense of inequity and amplifying social tensions - i.e. the problem that China is facing now.
Asian Leaders Evacuated By Helicopter
Was it dropping dollars per chance?
Reptillian, thank you for providing the link.
The photo of the crowd smashing the door is great.
Note to Michael...now this is a protest.
"The country's political crisis, now three years running, pits lower-income supporters of Thaksin Shinawatra, the prime minister ousted in the September 2006 coup, against the royalist elite that backed the coup."
"If you compare it to a boxing match, we won the first round," said
Prasong Hassanoi, a 55-year-old cab driver who is from northeastern
Thailand who drove his taxi to the protest. "We are now more confident."
Thailand People 1, Royalist Elite 0.
--------------------------------------------------------------------------
Learn the 7TH Amendment maggot!
Red Beckman - Fully Informed Jury
http://video.google.com/videoplay?docid=7385583011526915030&hl=en
Rob Dawg,
>What exactly is an "urban fixed asset"?
>>Infrastructure, factories, transit.
You mean the banks are lending to cities and municipalities to build infrastructure? To me, the headline sounded more like personal loans for whatever purpose. Of course you are probably right, but I just have not heard of Chinese cities borrowing money. I
GiezCubed wrote on Sat, 04/11/2009 - 8:35am.
why are they required to modernize at such a rapid pace regarding transforming jobs for their workforce. What is the issue with continuing the agricultural jobs/lifestyle for many...that already exist?
Everything "ac" said plus the genie is out of the bottle with respect to the population being aware of what they don't have in their rural regions.
Got to love the foreigners Chutzpa. To bad Americans allowed themselves to be Neutered.
--------------------------------------------------------------------------
Learn the 7TH Amendment maggot!
Red Beckman - Fully Informed Jury
http://video.google.com/videoplay?docid=7385583011526915030&hl=en
:: ::
ac wrote on Sat, 04/11/2009 - 10:37am.
Not sure how people can look at graphs like this and convincingly talk about Chinese recovery this year.
:: ::
Only get a real recovery if they stimulate internal consumption - otherwise its gonna be some cliff diving somewhere. I agree w/ your guess there will be a dumping war - it doesn't have to happen and shouldn't end that way - but it probably will.
And to those who say its 'protectionist' if we 'allow' the forex to devalue our currency - I ask "Okay how do we continue to run the deficits Asia 'demands' and NOT explode our money supply & debt? Answer me that one and I'll lay off the dollar destruction meme." I've not heard anyone answer that convincingly... there is no answer other than it is coming to an end one way or another whether the trade negotiators & central bankers like it or not.
Michael Pettis in response to another related Bloomberg article about China bailing out it's shipping industry...
China's Aid to Shipbuilders May Come at Shipping Lines' Expense
http://www.bloomberg.com/apps/news?pid=20601089&sid=aUMQsi0wLUKM&refer=c...
mentions the loans as well...
http://mpettis.com/2009/04/is-governor-zhou-a-closet-bernanke-ite/
...As I have argued many times, the constraints of the Chinese development model and limitations in the financial system mean that it will be very hard for China to shift its behavior quickly enough to match the possible adjustment in the US and elsewhere. Bailing out the ship-building industry is one way in which Beijing's fiscal reaction – while understandable from an employment point of view – may exacerbate the adjustment. Washington's bailing-out of the automobile industry is the same sort of mistake, I think, but in the US case it is much easier to justify. The US must reduce its net consumption, and if boosting production is economically inefficient in the long term, at least it fits within the overall adjustment in the short term. This is not the case with China – it should be boosting consumption directly, and not indirectly by boosting capacity.
There is a lot more I wanted to discuss today, but this blog entry is getting to be way too long. But just one quick thing, yesterday I was having coffee with some visiting friends from Goldman when one of them received a notice that there were credible rumors on the March increase in new loans. We had all been expecting a very big March number – between RMB 1.3 and RMB 1.6 trillion.
It turns out that the true number may have been an astonishing RMB 1.9 trillion.
That means that for the first three months of the year we have had loan increases of RMB1.6 trillion, RMB 1.1 trillion, and RMB 1.9 trillion. This amounts to RMB 4.6 trillion for the first quarter of 2009, compared to RMB 4.5 trillion for all of 2008. Notice to my students: learn more about how to resolve and restructure bad loans. This will be a great career option for you over the next few years.
Michael,
RE: neutering. Thats why I keep my doors and windows locked. THEY COME IN LATE AT NIGHT!
Make sure you do. America needs you.
http://afterthecrash.net - Home of the Doomer Story Portal and Other Stuff
Nova,
I'm approaching 5 decades old. How old are you?
--------------------------------------------------------------------------
Learn the 7TH Amendment maggot!
Red Beckman - Fully Informed Jury
http://video.google.com/videoplay?docid=7385583011526915030&hl=en
I am old. I remember when eagles soared. I remember so many things Michael that are GONE!
Like Tang. What happened to Tang Michael? It was good enough for the astronaunts.
http://afterthecrash.net - Home of the Doomer Story Portal and Other Stuff
I saw on Fox News this morning a story about communities printing their own money.
This act is a form of protectionism, the natural state of human behavior to protect jobs and the community.
I'm all for protecting jobs and the community.
--------------------------------------------------------------------------
Learn the 7TH Amendment maggot!
Red Beckman - Fully Informed Jury
http://video.google.com/videoplay?docid=7385583011526915030&hl=en
Only get a real recovery if they stimulate internal consumption - otherwise its gonna be some cliff diving somewhere. I agree w/ your guess there will be a dumping war - it doesn't have to happen and shouldn't end that way - but it probably will.
Either way though there's not likely to be any significant recovery in US consumption and I wonder if it's possible to stimulate enough domestic consupmption (in China) to make up for the drop-off in US consumption that's occurred so far.
Also with the way house prices and employment are still falling in the US I'm pessimistic about US consumption later this year.
Rob Dawg, why are they required to modernize at such a rapid pace regarding transforming jobs for their workforce. What is the issue with continuing the agricultural jobs/lifestyle for many...that already exist?
Well, I'm not Dawg, but here's my answer: the agrarian lifestyle was already collapsing - well before Mao - really, it was collapsing at the turn of the last century, and that is what helped bring down the Imperial government. They cannot support the population with the old agrarian system, even if you ignore that large sections of China are turning into desert.
The Chinese agrarian peasantry was 'bought off' twenty-five years ago by Deng Xioaping with promises of factory jobs for their children, who were in turn promised white collar jobs for their children. The "Communist" party has been nervously perched atop a powder keg for years, and have only retained societal control by delivering on promised gains - pretty successfully - over the past two decades. They are in deep doo-doo now, because they are utterly dependent on the export model. They cannot consume what they are ramped up to produce.
Subsistence farming is a pretty low standard of living...
So that's where our bubble went. Good luck to the Chinese on dealing with it.
ac wrote on Sat, 04/11/2009 - 9:17am.
Also with the way house prices and employment are still falling in the US I'm pessimistic about US consumption later this year.
Funny, with the way house prices and employment are still falling in the US I'm optimistic about US consumption later this year. I fully expect US consumption to crash 12-14% to sustainable levels with the possibly a little left over for debt service.
Nova,
I remember the tang commercials and the lunar landings. It was a very fun time indeed.
Sometimes I cannot tell weather posters here are male or female by the handles they use or by the style of their writings. Most of the time I can however. I think you are female, but could you confirm this for me? Let me just not though for the record, I am not gender bias.
--------------------------------------------------------------------------
Learn the 7TH Amendment maggot!
Red Beckman - Fully Informed Jury
http://video.google.com/videoplay?docid=7385583011526915030&hl=en
Nova, you're funny!
"t communities printing their own money.
This act is a form of protectionism"
---------------
That's an interesting comment.
It ties into why I think a one-world currency would fail.
"I'm approaching five decades old"
------------
Really?
I've been "approaching" five decades since I was born.
Michael,
I am sorry but I am married. If you want, you can send me photos of you nude with your bullhorn! I would like that.
http://afterthecrash.net - Home of the Doomer Story Portal and Other Stuff
Michael,
Or you with teabags! That would be rousing!
http://afterthecrash.net - Home of the Doomer Story Portal and Other Stuff
MEL wrote on Sat, 04/11/2009 - 11:12am.
Sometimes the plan is okay, it's the execution that is found lacking. Housing projects might have been a good idea if they had been spread out over an entire city instead of located in one area
Awesome. Avidly awaiting your next Tuskeegee experiments with the lives of the urban poor.
This isn't White Man's Burden, but it is White Man's Debt.
Take up the White Man's burden--
And reap his old reward:
The blame of those ye better,
The hate of those ye guard--
The cry of hosts ye humour
(Ah, slowly!) toward the light:--
"Why brought he us from bondage,
Our loved Egyptian night?"
Take up the White Man's burden--
Ye dare not stoop to less--
Nor call too loud on Freedom
To cloke your weariness;
By all ye cry or whisper,
By all ye leave or do,
The silent, sullen peoples
Shall weigh your gods and you.
Your gods suck. Also, how do you feel about "sanctimonious neo-patrimonialist"? That's a good one, isn't it?
You ever read "The Pict's Song"? I sure do post parts of it here a lot.
If you treat a people like shit--be they Black, Brown, or White, expect them to smell.
It's true! the part where you are wrong is the part where you choose a solution for them and connive to jam it down their throats, all Elmira-like. "Here bunny bunny, you need your medicine, I mixed it up special for you".
I guess it's perspective again, but having a large underclass--here or in China--is an economic drag.
What is an underclass? Why does it exist? What is the alternative to that underclass? Don't you feel a little uneasy championing these patrimonialist development frameworks in a state that's so evidently bankrupt?
At least maybe mainstream economists will finally learn to recognize that money, debt and credit (three words, one thing) has a limit that causes collapse.
At least maybe mainstream economists will finally learn to recognize that money, debt and credit (three words, one thing) has a limit that causes collapse.
At least maybe mainstream economists will finally learn to recognize that money, debt and credit (three words, one thing) has a limit that causes collapse.
"photos of you nude with your bullhorn!"
----------
That is so wrong.
And Nova, I don't blame you for being sorry you're married.
Wally, you got a stutter. =)
"Subsistence farming is a pretty low standard of living... "
Hey! I resemble that remark.........
- - - - -
Black Ranch
So far they've been maintaining the fiction of a modernizing economy with unsustainable stimuli.
--------------------------------------
Sounds just like another country i know...
Nova,
Did you here about ACORN an the Huffington Post rallying to infiltrate the Tea Parties?
Whose side are you on? I can guess which one but it doesn't matter, the more the merrier. Which side do you think will win this round?
--------------------------------------------------------------------------
Learn the 7TH Amendment maggot!
Red Beckman - Fully Informed Jury
http://video.google.com/videoplay?docid=7385583011526915030&hl=en
Byz,
You might get a smile from what I wrote about planning back in 1998:
EVERY time I suggest that urban planning performs human
experimentation without sufficient justification, it is met with stone
silience. There is no more reiliable knowledge today than there was when
Cabrini Greens was foisted on an unsuspecting general populace and applied
to a defenseless underclass. The inconvienient history of planner
theory going straight from alchemy to application is never addressed.
Planners become planners because their personal agenda would never withstand
the crucible of public scrutiny.
Blargh wrote on Sat, 04/11/2009 - 12:39pm.
Sounds just like another country i know...
The part where both partners end up taking it up the bum at once is what will give this era it's really resonant "POP".
I've seen your picture Broward. I think wisdom has something to do with age.
--------------------------------------------------------------------------
Learn the 7TH Amendment maggot!
Red Beckman - Fully Informed Jury
http://video.google.com/videoplay?docid=7385583011526915030&hl=en
BR--Nihilism works for you--go for it. Spreading out "projects" is not my idea, it was the original idea--started in New Haven, I believe. People need to meet and work and study with "all kinds." The American dream was the melting pot--more in ideal than in practice when it came to race. We can disagree about causes and cures, but we probably agree that the poorest will suffer the most from this depression--and that they probably won't go silently into the night. What we do economically will have social consequences that are predictable and should be discussed.
Michael,
There are no sides in the wheel of America! Just spokes helping us all roll down the road. There are no winners or losers. Just people like me waundering the desert in search of a refreshing glass of Tang!
There is evil tho as you well know. Do you ever feel like they are listening to you? Watching you? Creeping in and going through your laundry. MAYBE SNIFFING IT! Be careful Michael. They know you now. Disconnect everything while you have a chance!
http://afterthecrash.net - Home of the Doomer Story Portal and Other Stuff
"But Cabrini-Green is just the beginning...........the plan is to replace all of Chicago's projects with beautiful new "mixed-income" developments - rich and poor living side by side."
So, how has that worked out, btw?
- - - - -
Black Ranch
As for Cabrini Greens, many people are on waiting lists to get into projects because they are better than their present home.
http://apnews.myway.com//article/20090411/D97GC4AG0.html
AP IMPACT: Chinese drywall poses potential risks
Shipping records reviewed by The Associated Press indicate that imports of potentially tainted Chinese building materials exceeded 500 million pounds during a four-year period of soaring home prices. The drywall may have been used in more than 100,000 homes, according to some estimates, including houses rebuilt after Hurricane Katrina.
Scapegoating is very old, and no doubt answers to a deep human need to displace guilt and anxiety.
Pavel Chichikov
They cannot consume what they are ramped up to produce.
Oh yes they can. The issue is that the Chinese can't PAY the Western Pprices we pay for QOL goods they make for our WalMarts.
China's got a BILLION more people than the US. That's a big market but most of these people lack access to capital goods, natural resources, and funds to support wealth creation.
Black Star Ranch (member) wrote on Sat, 04/11/2009 - 11:47am.
"But Cabrini-Green is just the beginning...........the plan is to replace all of Chicago's projects with beautiful new "mixed-income" developments - rich and poor living side by side."
So, how has that worked out, btw?
:: ::
About as well as private development projects out in the Inland Empire...
That drywall story is absolutely mind-boggling. 100,000 new homes may have to be scrapped, with no one to foot the bil for rebuilding.
And how many condos and business centers was it used in.
Unmitigated disaster. Nice job of inspecting the cheap materials from China, folks.
Chimese basketball scrimage - Yuan on Yuan
MEL wrote on Sat, 04/11/2009 - 9:48am.
As for Cabrini Greens, many people are on waiting lists to get into projects because they are better than their present home.
Jaw drops. You don't really understand the dynamics of public housing do you?
'It is not even wrong.' - Pauli
If you insist on showing common sense you will undermine the rally in the stock market. So please, stop asking such questions.
Actually Nova, I don't at all. I have the 7th Amendment to protect me. That's how powerful the 7th Amendment is. Most people don't get how powerful the 7th Amendment is.
--------------------------------------------------------------------------
Learn the 7TH Amendment maggot!
Red Beckman - Fully Informed Jury
http://video.google.com/videoplay?docid=7385583011526915030&hl=en
I love the Chinese drywall story.
--------------------------------------------------------------------------
Learn the 7TH Amendment maggot!
Red Beckman - Fully Informed Jury
http://video.google.com/videoplay?docid=7385583011526915030&hl=en
public housing--I worked in those neighborhoods, and as bad as the projects are, they're better than the alternatives. Get first hand information before you dismiss something. That doesn't mean I think the projects are good--just slightly better than hell. I've visited families that don't have private bathrooms--just communal ones on floor landings where the doors were removed to "protect" the residents. Again, projects are bad, but not that bad.
By MADLEN READ
AP Business Writer
NEW YORK (AP) - It's the earnings, stupid.
Optimism that the fortunes of financial companies like Citigroup were improving sparked a four-week rally beginning March 10 that drove the Standard & Poor's 500 index up 25 percent. But now investors will find out exactly how companies across all industries performed during the first three months of the year. Those quarterly results will determine whether the surge was the beginning of a bull market, or just a blip.
After all, the market's last promising rally was derailed not by jobs data or an emergency federal bailout but by forecasts from companies that make everything from computer chips to tin cans to movies.
The S&P 500 jumped 182 points, or 24 percent, to 934 between Nov. 20 and Jan. 6. The next day, technology bellwether Intel Corp., aluminum producer Alcoa Inc. and media giant Time Warner Inc. all issued grim earnings guidance. The S&P dropped 28 points, or 3 percent, that day and hasn't returned to its early January levels since.
The current rally also began with a company announcement. This time, beleaguered and bailed out Citigroup Inc. said March 10 it was profitable for the first two months of the year. The S&P 500 gained 43 points, or 6 percent, that day to 719. The index closed Thursday at 857, and markets were closed on Good Friday.
The S&P could rise more, and even turn positive for 2009, if earnings reports for the first quarter show a strengthening economy. Alcoa, the first big company to report their results each quarter, announced a loss of $497 million on Tuesday evening. But investors were pleased about the aluminum company's efforts to cut expenses by $2 billion a year, and the shares are up 14 percent since.
Wells Fargo & Co, meanwhile, said Thursday it expects record first-quarter earnings of $3 billion, about 50 percent more than the same period a year ago. The shares surged $4.72, or 32 percent, to $19.61 that day.
"We've got this incredible possibility that the market has turned a corner - that's it's not just a bear market rally or a head-fake," said Arthur Hogan, chief market analyst at Jefferies & Co. "Earnings are going to let us know whether the market has gotten ahead of itself, or is justified in its new valuation of stocks."
"their consumers have the savings"
what savings? China is not Japan, it has been poor country in the last 30 years. Up to today their average salary is ~ 5K/year. Ten years ago their average salary was around 1.5K. You can't save much if you don't make anything. The Chinese government is the only chinese entity that saves.
China can only boost domestic spending, in the long run, with higher wages for their working class. That's going out the door now. Their free trade agreement with ASEAN will pressure it even more. The country has a lacquer of sophisticated modernity on top of an autocracy with a very large group of mostly poor people. Their reserves seem mighty until one divides them by a 1.3 billion people.
I'm not really sure I'd characterize the Chinese population as those with large savings. As comrade mentions they were largely a poor nation until very recently. The fact that they are lending far more than us really isn't much of a surprise given their strengthening position in the world.
"The country has a lacquer of sophisticated modernity on top of an autocracy with a very large group of mostly poor people"
---------------
Are you referring to China or the U.S.?
Although it isn't obvious on the surface China suffers from all the usual inefficiencies of central command economies. Lots of mal-investment that will never pay off. That said they are IMO doing something that our system appears unable to undertake. They are building solar manufacturing capacity and preparing to "consume" it domestically and export it as depression proof item. If the dollar doesn't implode by then within 5 quarters we could be seeing $2.50/w panels here.
As mentioned above, they are buying time. China's got to keep the workers working.
The best way for the Chinese to improve their consumption and spend stimuli efficiently would be to distribute some of the Government surplus and reserves back to the population. They should have cut taxes & send stimuli checks to an average worker. Building an extra capacity when your capacity idle is nothing short of wasting your resources.
P.S. Our situation is different, we should be building capacity instead of sending stimuli checks and promoting consumer consumption. We should engage in something similar to the "New Deal" - huge public work projects. Instead our brilliant politicians decided to open a dinosaur ranch.
" all the usual inefficiencies of central command economies"
---------
Yes, so unlike the free market economy of the U.S. which created the Dot Com bubble & Real Estate bubble, as prices head back to 1985, erasing the illusion of twenty years of progess.
"public housing--I worked in those neighborhoods, and as bad as the projects are, they're better than the alternatives. Get first hand information before you dismiss something. That doesn't mean I think the projects are good--just slightly better than hell. I've visited families that don't have private bathrooms--just communal ones on floor landings where the doors were removed to "protect" the residents. Again, projects are bad, but not that bad."
Public housing is a band aid for your feelings, It cures nothing. I bet most if not all private housing has bathroom doors. There is obvious responsibility problem by the people who are occupying these premises. Public housing is enabling not helping. Redistribution of wealth with zero responsibility for their actions. Recycle bad behavior to the next generation. Smart keeps all those social service works in a government job. More taxes.
Most of these people could be doing work that illegals do but we have considered this as below American standards. How about community service pay back system. That would be help not enabling.
"How about community service pay back system?"
------------
Community service is institutionalized slavery.
"Yes, so unlike the free market economy of the U.S."
It wasn't the free market but consumption oriented ideology and government policy that caused those. Excessive anything in the economy mostly has negative consequences. It happens due to diminishing returns, etc.
"Community service is institutionalized slavery. "
So a free ride is in order.
I bet most if not all private housing has bathroom doors.
It's the theory which decides what can be observed.
- einstein
Lobbyi$t Ben Dover wrote on Sat, 04/11/2009 - 1:40pm.
**"Community service is institutionalized slavery. "
*So a free ride is in order.
I am Andrew Ryan, and I'm here to ask you a question: Is a man not entitled to the sweat of his brow? No, says the man in Washington. It belongs to the poor. No, says the man in the Vatican. It belongs to God. No, says the man in Moscow. It belongs to everyone. I rejected those answers. Instead, I chose something different. I chose the impossible. I chose... Rapture. A city where the artist would not fear the censor. Where the scientist would not be bound by petty morality. Where the great would not be constrained by the small. And with the sweat of your brow, Rapture can become your city as well.
Go to Bed/Stuy and the South Bronx--walk up the tenement steps--you're in for a sad day. Many landlords turn off the water supply in bathrooms to prevent recurring overflows in bathtubs. This isn't as bad as the India in slumdog--but it isn't pretty, or appropriate, in the world's richest nation. As to them doing the work of the Mexicans, many of the men are in jail for non violent offenses--and daycare often is unavailable and/or deplorable. Also, "aliens"often work for below minimum wages--as do many project dwellers. They don't live like shit by their design, for many, those were the cards dealt them, especially the children.
"It wasn't the free market but consumption oriented ideology "
------------
Free markets are consumption-oriented by definition.
Enron is an excellent example of free market ideology.
The "privatization of electricity" created higher costs, not lower.
Free markets are for cheap, simple consumer items.
WASHINGTON (AP) - If the uninsured were a political lobbying group, they'd have more members than AARP. The National Mall couldn't hold them if they decided to march on Washington.
But going without health insurance is still seen as a personal issue, a misfortune for many and a choice for some. People who lose coverage often struggle alone instead of turning their frustration into political action.
Illegal immigrants rallied in Washington during past immigration debates, but the uninsured linger in the background as Congress struggles with a health care overhaul that seems to have the best odds in years of passing.
That isolation could have profound repercussions.
Lawmakers already face tough choices to come up with the hundreds of billions it would cost to guarantee coverage for all. The lack of a vocal constituency won't help. Congress might decide to cover the uninsured slowly, in stages.
The uninsured "do not provide political benefit for the aid you give them," said Robert Blendon, a professor of health policy and political analysis at the Harvard School of Public Health. "That's one of the dilemmas in getting all this money. If I'm in Congress, and I help out farmers, they'll help me out politically. But if I help out the uninsured, they are not likely to help members of Congress get re-elected."
The number of uninsured has grown to an estimated 50 million people because of the recession. Even so, advocates in the halls of Congress are rarely the uninsured themselves. The most visible are groups that represent people who have insurance, usually union members and older people. In the last election, only 10 percent of registered voters said they were uninsured.
The grass-roots group Health Care for America Now plans to bring as many as 15,000 people to Washington this year to lobby Congress for guaranteed coverage. Campaign director Richard Kirsch expects most to have health insurance.
"Andrew Ryan"
------------------
"Evolution is the Survival Of The Best Nurtured" - George Lakoff
http://books.google.com/books?id=KbqxnX3_uc0C&pg=PA557&lpg=PA557&dq=geor...
The number of uninsured has grown to an estimated 50 million people because of the recession.
Look up the definition of uninsured before spouting that number.
In 1995, for example, 16.5 million children were enrolled in Medicaid according to the CPS versus 21.4 million according to HCFA data-22.9 percent underreporting.
"Free markets are consumption-oriented by definition.
Enron is an excellent example of free market ideology.
The "privatization of electricity" created higher costs, not lower.
Free markets are for cheap, simple consumer items."
it's a first time I hear such a definition of the free market. You confuse human misdeeds, arrogance and incapability to think in the long run with the notion of free market.
Free Market only means that all of the prices for most of the goods are set by the demand and supply, hence most of the resources are allocated efficiently based on the demand for any particular good. Now there are well known inefficiency of free market distribution of CERTAIN GOODS - defense, environment, etc. However most of such goods have never been allocated by free markets.
Think of the free MARKET as a car. When car crashed because driver got drunk or was going 110 in the narrow mountain road, do you blame a driver or do you blame a car? It seems you are blaming a CAR in this situation.
p.s. Don't kill a messenger.
I'm getting frustrated --I see smugness--you see naivete --Most medicaid does not include dental work--or up to date treatments. My son needs Remicade every 2 months, if he loses his job and health insurance (after COBRA runs out), he becomes an invalid. (Remicade costs about $10,000/treatment) The rich deserve better, but the poor deserve adequate--or maybe I'm just a romantic.
ME: "Subsistence farming is a pretty low standard of living... "
BSR: Hey! I resemble that remark.........
You know, I thought of that the minute I hit send...and FWIW, I also kind of resemble that - not nearly to the extent you do, but there is bambi in my freezer, and I am planting the garden this weekend. I just finished pruning the grapes (probably a week or two late). Not the greatest camera, but here's a view of the "front yard"...the field across the way (the cleared rise) is part of about 340 acres in cattle production right now (those guys are scraping by).
The truth is: you might reduce your dependence on the system, or supplement your income in some way, but I doubt that your entire source of income is based on what you grow in your garden. Is it really even revenue neutral after you factor in your production costs? Not to mock or minimize your efforts - good on ya! - but IIRC you mentioned family members who participate in the 'outside' economy.
We do have a number of "local food movement" farms getting back underway around here..."organic" production, small farmers.
Seriously - true subsistence living can be very austere. I think it's pretty alive and well out in Mongolia. Ready to live a semi-nomadic lifestyle sleeping in a yurt?
Anyway, although we are politically on different ends of the spectrum, I find myself in agreement with a lot that you have to say, and no insult intended with that remark about subsistence farming.
BH, you sound like you've been possessed by Comrade Byzantine Ruins (who is on a real tear today himself!). Cheers to the commentariat...I need to go eat a little lunch and fire up the riding mower.
I was ranting a couple days ago about China needing to tap its reserves soon enough to pay for what mostly amounts to state-backed refinancing on troubled assets as opposed to new lending. How prescient.
I must be all out of sync with the universe because I heard from someone that got a mortgage via the FHA with 3.5% down and 5% interest (principal was 100k). I assumed that regular mortgages in the USA were 20% down. Sounds like the FHA is Apollo holding up the mortgage market, 3.5% in this environment, wow
Mel, you're gonna get frustrated if you seek intelligent discussion of social issues on this board.
This board is all about money. Others have too much, I don't have enough and I should get more.
This board is all about negativity. Nothing works, everyone is wrong and I'm the only one who sees clearly.
This board is all about elitists. The world doesn't turn for 'them.' They do not count. It's all about us.
Some who speak the most here are the self-anointed tyrannical rulers of the rest of us or so they think.
Not everyone, just the consensus, reacting much like a wolfpack.
"You confuse human misdeeds, arrogance and incapability to think in the long run with the notion of free market."
-------------
They are inexorable bound together.
Any system which does not account for human behavior can not work well.
Free market ideology is nice and internally consistent but inconsistent with human nature, which is why it does not exist.
Communism is a nice idea but also inconsistent with human nature.
Which is why almost all countries maintain a poorly-integrated hybrid of the two.
"Again, projects are bad, but not that bad. "
From what I saw re. gang violence and all, how can you even suggest it's "not that bad"? A shack in the sticks in any state of the union without running water is better than THIS!
- - - - -
Black Ranch
"Where the scientist would not be bound by petty morality."
Uh oh. You might want to think about that.
Pavel Chichikov
"Unmitigated disaster. Nice job of inspecting the cheap materials from China, folks. "
Inspectors were not cost effective in a "riskless" economy. Just ask AIG.
New CR post
Free Market is a tool.
Capitalism is a system. Tool does not have an ideology, the system does.
"You sound like you've been possessed by Comrade Byzantine Ruins"
--------------
I suspect that BR's vision of the future will be more accurate than mine. I was hoping for a Crash, a flash of pain and a reset but BR sees something far more dismal.... a System that holds together as it sinks to the bottom of the sea.
Definition of free market - the idea that guesses by millions of dumb people are better than the plans of five smart people.
MEL wrote on Sat, 04/11/2009 - 2:12pm.
I'm getting frustrated --I see smugness--you see naivete --Most medicaid does not include dental work--or up to date treatments. My son needs Remicade every 2 months, if he loses his job and health insurance (after COBRA runs out), he becomes an invalid. (Remicade costs about $10,000/treatment)
At that cost, what's the problem with rationing it?
The rich deserve better, but the poor deserve adequate--or maybe I'm just a romantic.
I bet $60,000 way outpaces his tax receipts for the year. if compassion touches each person similarly, the result is insolvency. Irrefutable reality of the situation, sorry.
Comrade Scott: "Is it really even revenue neutral after you factor in your production costs?"
The garden is, the cow is, the chickens maybe not, the 2-heifers, not until they're older, and the two teenagers, DEFINITELY NOT!. It's just to help with the grocery bills, to take the boogey-man away from the door, and supplant the 3-gallons of milk we go through per day........ BTW, nice view! We don't get much "green" around here.
- - - - -
Black Ranch
BR-
"The problem is, their denial is the end of the trans-pacific capital pump. When they get really strapped, they may even dump Treasuries perforce and not as a stratagem."
Their problem, much like ours, is that they can't handle the truth.
Woke to coffee and discord on CR. Hoocoodanode?
Blame assessment in full swing. Seems the pendulum is swinging back toward the have nots or the breeders and eaters as I try to dehumanize them. The poor and defenseless always feel the sting of the whip and pangs of hunger first. Luckily the pictures of starving people in Africa have managed to inure the majority to the suffering all around.
I think it does help with the grocery bills...I'm hoping to do some serious freezing for winter this year. We'll see how that goes.
Yah, the teenagers can eat you out of house and home - way in excess of their productive output.
The view is the real selling point of this house...the rest, meh. It's a stick-built kit-house, 1970s "Capp homes" number, and while it scores high on utilitarian, not much else. The neighborhood and view are wonderful. This is early - you can see the green is just starting to pop out this weekend. It will all look very lush in about two weeks. East coast for you.
Mel- I pay my own medical bills. Insurance, copay's, deductibles run about $22K a year. You are frustrated? The McMansion I could have if I were irresponsible and cry victim. American pride of old will not let that happen to me. The only people who deserve government assistants are the physical and mental disabled. Everyone else should be self supporting or use private charity as we had before the great society that has failed. The ghetto is not smaller and the cost and demands continue to grow out of control. The bang you will soon hear is the government bubble popping when everybody gets equal entitlement with out any effort. Enjoy!
Break over back to plowing!
Mel,
This is probably a dead thread, but you do neglect to mention that the lack of family structure (overwhelmingly, children raised in poverty are now born to teenage, unmarried mothers) is a continuing cause of poverty. Children raising children on the government dime is not going to produce self-sufficient adults. That's a cultural problem, not one the government or its money can fix.
At that cost, what's the problem with rationing it?
At that cost, what is the profit margin and why are we paying it?
what savings? China is not Japan
Japan is not Japan, either, what with its debt to GDP ratio.
If Japan hadn't had China to leverage off of they'd been fucked this decade.
Next decade, they're fucked any way.
"I know I won't be forced to live in those ghettos"
No one was forced to live in New Orleans either. If their internal risk management department was happy there, then I was happy to leave them to their fate. Saner parts of the gene pool refused to live below sea level to begin with.
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robot post 6571
So what happens if China succumbs to this risk?