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CRE articles always use words like "stalled" or "slump". When do they start using "crash"?
- Nemo
An important piece IMO, hence reposting it from the end of the previous thread:
Obama Stakes His Fortunes on Failed Banksters
Just two small bits - but read the whole thing
Why doesn't the Obama administration force insolvent banks and insurance companies to come clean about their losses first? It's the "why" that's so vexing. The who, what, when, and how are mere details, by comparison.
He could have ordered all U.S. financial institutions to immediately confess whatever losses they hadn't yet recognized. And he could have backed that up by vowing to prosecute every officer, director and auditor the Justice Department could find who had approved numbers they knew to be wrong.
Obama didn't do that.
A little background in terms of DC would be in order for those unfamiliar with the town where a third of their present wealth and a majority of their future wealth is destroyed each and every day.
SE DC (which has Anacostia as its main neighborhood) is a different world than NW DC. Referring to them as being the same town is a bit misleading. Not like this kind of wipeout won't end up happening farther up the Potomac or in the tonier parts of Fairfax county etc in due time, of cousre.
Visited D.C. last month, doing the tourist thing. Great city.
But I didn't go anywhere near the Navy Yard. In fact, all the guidebooks and intertube advice basically said, "Go down there only by cab, and leave well before it gets dark..., extra sketchy."
Although I really enjoyed seeing "free" all the museums, galleries, buildings, etc. that I pay taxes to maintain and support..., other anecdotes.
Signage for "Taxation without representation." I guess D.C. residents feel they deserve somebody voicing their needs at a federal level, and believe they aren't listened to. Much like the rest of the country, I guess.
Saw very few under 18 residents of D.C. It's a very adult town, in the sense that most people who find themselves about ready to shit out kids probably head for Alexandria or beyond. I can't envision finding a school for your budding genius. Or where they would "play." It's a concrete jungle. Summer must be fun.
Everybody raves about the Metro, and it's true that it's a great system. That's because it has to be. Driving out there is nothing short of a stress-nightmare from a fever dream. Shockingly expensive parking, confusing signage, roads that change direction, security pylons. I can imagine if you ever got towed, you might just say, "Ah, fuck it." and never bother to pick up your car.
The homeless didn't bother me in the slightest. Much less aggressive, visible and depressing than other cities, including Philly and Honolulu (!).
Cherry Blossoms are really as beautiful as they say.
I rank D.C. on par with Chicago as far as urban destinations go.
Cleveland-based Forest City stopped construction on a loft building at its project, the Yards, because it couldn't get a loan. It is trying to get financing through a CITY HOUSING PROGRAM to restart construction
All unfinished projects and empty condo towers will become "affordable housing" or Section 8 housing. Just watch, Obama will buy them for top dollar.
Stress Tests: Who Will Take the Fall?
For our impartial assessment, please visit:
Good observations, MM. DC is a transient town by nature, obviously, the pendulum has swung back to the D side, meaning that tens of thousands of people rotate along with the dominant clique. It is also a swamp with absolutely horrible weather.
As for the biblical-plague traffic afflicting NoVa, they deserve every second of it. The parasite is so gorged on the blood of the host that they can barely waddle around... Cry me a river.
Report: U.S. squeezes GM, Chrysler creditors
http://www.cnbc.com/id/30156782/for/cnbc/
Bondholders are calling Obama's bluff.
Bondholders don' t think he will put them through bankruptcy because of political pressure from the public and the Unions.
I think Obama blinks.
Flipping properties in Virginia three years ago.
http://download.publicradio.org/podcast/speakingoffaith/20090220_reposse...
CR,
I think we have to start thinking about new uses for abandoned or empty CRE. The overbuilding and price collapse of CRE is no longer just a theoretical possibility.
One of my ideas is to use empty CRE as subsidized space for technology startups.
The idea is something along these lines.
1. Give people with a half decent new idea- anywhere between 10-20 million dollars (but no money if you have graduated/ worked at a famous or ivy league university- as you probably have no creativity left).
2. Get them to try out their ideas.. hire people.
3. If the ideas produce something good ..great.. if not, at least you have created employment.
4. If ideas are good, make sure the people who develop it benefit (patent law and business mentality changes will be necessary.. won't be easy though)
These things typically occurred during wars in the past, which is why wars result in a lot of technological innovation. We have to create conditions favorable for innovation.
Another day and just like clockwork, another brick from Temple of Mammon called USA falls down. Hoodoocanode.
GM will want to go bk, but Obama won't let them, because that could hurt Golman Sachs and Pimpco.
On the Employye Free Choice Act
"...there is no question that it will still come up for debate and votes because workers deserve a share of this RECOVERY."
Iowa Se. Tom Harkin
What Recovery?
1. Give people with a half decent new idea- anywhere between 10-20 million dollars (but no money if you have graduated/ worked at a famous or ivy league university- as you probably have no creativity left).
That's a sharp thesis right there. First, make sure that you eliminate all those MIT types, because you know, they're not creative. After that, it's 3 easy steps to big profits. Drill here!
Yes, DC is really 3 towns with multiple neighborhoods. The area CR's post is about is an interesting part of town.
CRE building is worse in No. VA. A lot of buildings still going up. The Tysons are buildout is still moving. Anywhere close to a metro stop in No. VA still has projects.
NoVA house prices are still insane, even tho they have dropped about 20% depending on the area. More in the farther, less attractive burbs.
One of the underlying dynamics in DC is what drug is currently popular. That drives a lot of things. Heroin has made a comeback. Hopefully PCP does not.
A lot of gov. buildings are no longer in the city. My guess is that NoVA has more gov workers than DC now.
Immune? No more. Fed gov is about 20% of the workforce. At one time 15% of the workforce was real estate related. A lot of defense contractors who make the real money. Far better paid than any gov worker doing the same job.
Also not immune because gov workers got the same mortgages every one else did, took out equity etc. Before, with 20% down on a conv. 30 year a town with 40% of the workers directly employed by the gov could take a downturn onstride.
http://afterthecrash.net - Home of the Doomer Story Portal and Other Stuff
The big leaps in human knowledge or creativity do not come from clever people who spend their time climbing the system. The big leaps always come from people who think differently.. the ones who see the world differently from the "consensus"
//That's a sharp thesis right there. First, make sure that you eliminate all those MIT types, because you know, they're not creative. After that, it's 3 easy steps to big profits. Drill here!//
lucifer wanted to exclude Ivy Leaguers.
mojoman wrote:
First, make sure that you eliminate all those MIT types, because you know, they're not creative.
Fact check here: Harvard, Yale, Brown, Dartmouth, Cornell, Princeton, Columbia, Penn. Did MIT sneak into the Ivy League?
UVa declined an invitation in the 1980s. Mr. Jefferson sleeps more soundly after that excellent decision.
Indianapolis Star: Fountain of debt may soak Indy water users with a rate hike Interest Rate Swap deal with MBIA and Defpa bank blew up, now users are going to be hit with a 17.5% rate hike to cover the $80 to $100 million in fees the leeches (aka Bankers) are demanding to escape the deal. THis is on top of a regularly scheduled rate hike this year for actual Water line construction.
Indy is still trying to figure out how to rescue the Stadium board from Bankruptcy.
MrM,
I've added the change in the total marketable debt to the maturity plot for US Treasury marketable debt. I may add the average tenor, but I will keep the current visual as it communicates the term structure in a more visceral fashion...just need to get the calc set up right using the more granular data.
Nothing that 'K' Street can't fix.
Buzzz, Buzzz, Buzzz,
This is not a test, this is not a test of the Emergency Psyche Alert System
The Psyche Alert broadcasters in your area have issued this alert for you to be on the lookout for syndicated media broadcasters promoting the Somali Pirate story. Both Right and Left wing media outlets are in on it as mandated by the CFR.
TPTB have dispatched their Psy-ops teams and have mandated their news agencies broadcast the Somali Pirate story at regular intervals.
Our Psyche Alert psychology experts have identified this threat as extreme. Don't be fooled by it!
This sinister psyche operation is designed to distract you from discussing financial matters with your families during your Easter visits. TPTB do not want you talking about how much you lost in your 401K last quarter, last year, or how much you lost on your investments. They do not want you making decisions come Monday concerning your investments in the stock market. They want to keep you on the hamster wheel.
See the Somali Pirate story for what it is. The human interest story centered around Captain Richard Phillips is designed to distract you from more important discussions such as the upcoming Taxday Tea Party Protests and financial matters. TPTB have even dispatched their communique to church congregations to pray for the staged captured captain. Do Not be Fooled!
It has been determined by our psychology team that the captured Captain may be released today and associated with the resurrection of Jesus Christ on this day, probably around dinner time.
The Psyche Alert System will keep you informed of the Psyche operations being played on you. This is a very sophisticated operation. Please take all precautions and protect yourselves.
This is not a test.
--------------------------------------------------------------------------
Learn the 7TH Amendment maggot!
Red Beckman - Fully Informed Jury
http://video.google.com/videoplay?docid=7385583011526915030&hl=en
MIT didn't squash my daughter's intelligence.
JHU didn't squash my hub's.
But I don't think that either of them count as Ivies.
Actually, I don't think this is snark, Michael.
But I must say, at least they picked something interestingly weird.
(but no money if you have graduated/ worked at a famous or ivy league university- as you probably have no creativity left).
Plantagenet, fact check. Reading comprehension is your friend.
BTW, in the comment before yours, Lucifer defends his exclusion of the MIT types, as they are people who 'spend their time climbing the system.'
Glad to see that the anti-intellectualism of the past 8 years hasn't completely gone into remission. Drill here!
I'm really surprised that interest rate swaps have not received the level of attention of other derivatives lately. They were all the rage in the past few years for "hedging" interest rate risk. Many borrowers that used them are now out of the money on them. They will either have to make costly payments or pay to have the swap terminated. Either way, being a taxpayer or rate payer will be a lot more expensive.
DC as a transient town? Almost everyone I know who makes below 100k a year has a history here. A lot of them are 2nd to 5th generation DC or Virginia.
http://afterthecrash.net - Home of the Doomer Story Portal and Other Stuff
Why would anyone want to live in DC metro, filled with lawyers and lobbyists sucking on the corporate teats on lavish expense accounts, and the worst summer climate short of Houston? A region for masochists, run by sadists. Dog intended the area to be an armpit and crotch of swamps and backwaters.
Oh, I get it! Its for those who gain pleasure from living amidst the clearest example of the grand canyon that divides the haves and the have nots. You can feel special being on the right side of that divide.
grumble grumble, snort
But I don't think that either of them count as Ivies.
Lawyers are usually pretty good at reading comprehension, Ivy or not, right?
energyecon - thanks, I saw that and left you a reply on that thread.
Immune? Not from me you didn't. It was that goofy blurb I sent you.
I went to school in DC and grew up in Balto. I can't honestly say DC's weather is worse than Balto's. They are both horrid. Spring comes a week or 2 earlier in DC. That was nice.
Senator Byrd has done his level best to move DC out to West Va.
No more Zimbabwe dollar:
Zimbabwe dollar 'not back soon'
Zimbabwe's national currency will remain suspended for at least a year following the legalisation of foreign currencies, officials say.
"There was nothing to support the value of the Zimbabwean dollar," Economic Planning Minister Elton Mangoma said.
------------------
sacrealstats
I've lived in DC a long time. The area around the baseball stadium is in South East by the water. The city used imminent domain to take the land from the warehouse, strip clubs and night clubs that owned the property. Those things were the only thing that even brought people to that part of town. When they put up the stadium developers thought they would get rich quick by putting up commercial and residential property next to it. Make it safe for out of towners to bring there kids. But after Lehman went under a lot of the money to build in that area vanished. But lets get real we are not talking about North West DC. Just a decade back you could buy crack during the day around where these SE projects are trying to go up. People have to remember how much has been built since the mid 90's. GWU has built 9 new buildings. Georgetown has built 5 new buildings. The DC convention center has been put up. Even the area around the Verizon Center took 9 or so years to build up after that arena was placed there. Some NW buildings that people recently built have low occupancy rates. But the goal is to get companies that have moved to Northern Va and caused the building boom out there to come back to the city.
Stalled CRE Projects in D.C.
Don't worry :
Friday, April 10, 2009
Obama: Glimmers of Hope
by CalculatedRisk on 4/10/2009 01:32:00 PM
....Obama sees 'glimmers of hope' in the economy
"We're starting to see progress," Obama said ...
Why is everyone waiting to call this a depression?
Auto sales are down 40% year over year. New home sales are down 40% year over year with prices down 18% to 20%. Job losses are running at 700,000 a month (official figures). U-6 unemployment is about 15%. CRE is now in freefall. Credit card defaults are hitting 9%.
We waited 12 months to call a recession in the US. Maybe, we will wait 12 months to call a depression. Yeah, if we wait, it may go away - just like the recession.
Ok famous and not creativity squashing.
Ah, the coffee table area in Md hall. I wonder if it's still there. The wind tunnel. The upsidedown Christmas tree. The table covered with Punches and Playboy mags.
The Friday afternoon lunches with wine and cheese, from Lexington mkt. Everybody welcome. Students, profs, secretaries, girlfriends(me), janitors.
One day there was all this scientific stuff lying around I never saw before. Seems like some gov't bureaucratic types were coming thru and the space had to be justified. They came thru and it was put away again. As if 4 hour lunches discussing everything under the sun--including science and work was not a justifiable use of space!!!
I realized this morning, especially after following energycons charts and posts, that the current policy is not being designed to create a recovery primarily. It is an excercise in stopping the rate of descent. They are trying to stop a crash. If they can slow the descent down or lessen impact then they will worry about recovery and what form it takes.
We are crashing. The pilots are worrying only about if they can level this plane off before it craters. What runway is available is not even being worried about at this point.
http://afterthecrash.net - Home of the Doomer Story Portal and Other Stuff
I guess a controlled descent is good, even it's into the Hudson river, if there are some lifeboats standing by.
Why is everyone waiting to call this a depression?
Because that would be, ahem, depressing?
We are bipolar, and the manic phase hasn't passed yet?
We can't handle the truth?
There's money to be made if the bottom has been called?
Empires never know that the empire is gone: it takes centuries of denial.
@MAX
The negative effects of the real estate decline have been apparent, but lower home prices will eventually allow state businesses to become competitive once again – enabling younger families to build their lives here rather than in cheaper locations.
I see what you mean. WTF is this all about?
There are too many doomsayers around here. How about we start posting hot IPO news, links to online coupons and special online only sales. If not I will start my own blog. "Glimmers of Hope"
If not I will start my own blog. "Glimmers of Hope"
Why not call it "Green Shoots?" Those are what come out of Ben's helicopter.
Why is everyone waiting to call this a depression?
Because the pain is over. My source? The esteemed Time Magazine, who informs me that the Great Banking Crisis of 2008 is over!
_______________________
Other comments here on occasion.
Wow. Great to see CR honing in on my neck of the woods. I was born and raised on Capitol Hill and about a 5 minute walk from this area. This article, while reflective of current economic trends, won't ring true in about 10 years. While still a project in its infancy, this area has come leaps and bounds from the days of ghetto strip clubs and shady warehouse raves. Don't get me wrong, those were fun, but young gentrifying families and Hill staffers moving in to SW caused their demise, commercial and residential buildings not mentioned in the article are still being built and our strong job fundamentals and proximity to the Capitol holds prices near peak for single family homes.
I hate to repeat it, but "immunozone" still describes inner Washington property values, granted there is a glut of condos, but town homes are still at or near peak bubble prices. It's been a historically undervalued city, now approaching world class status and prudent investors are snapping up what few REOs and short sales are available. Mad Mullah, I agree we're a transient city with poor weather and 24/7 traffic into the exburbs of VA. It's probably best you stay within the sterile confines of your cookie cutter community. You can keep your Appleby's and Big Lots too. Sorry that was harsh, but as resident, with easy access to what is arguably the best subway system in the US, beautiful historically significant neighborhoods, a variety of restaurants, museums etc., it annoys me to overhear an obese Joe Bob from Kentucky wearing Tevas with socks complain to his brood about a bit of grittiness and urban culture.
Wow. Great to see CR honing in on my neck of the woods. I was born and raised on Capitol Hill and about a 5 minute walk from this area. This article, while reflective of current economic trends, won't ring true in about 10 years. While still a project in its infancy, this area has come leaps and bounds from the days of ghetto strip clubs and shady warehouse raves. Don't get me wrong, those were fun, but young gentrifying families and Hill staffers moving in to SW caused their demise, commercial and residential buildings not mentioned in the article are still being built and our strong job fundamentals and proximity to the Capitol holds prices near peak for single family homes.
I hate to repeat it, but "immunozone" still describes inner Washington property values, granted there is a glut of condos, but town homes are still at or near peak bubble prices. It's been a historically undervalued city, now approaching world class status and prudent investors are snapping up what few REOs and short sales are available. Mad Mullah, I agree we're a transient city with poor weather and 24/7 traffic into the exburbs of VA. It's probably best you stay within the sterile confines of your cookie cutter community. You can keep your Appleby's and Big Lots too. Sorry that was harsh, but as resident, with easy access to what is arguably the best subway system in the US, beautiful historically significant neighborhoods, a variety of restaurants, museums etc., it annoys me to overhear an obese Joe Bob from Kentucky wearing Tevas with socks complain to his brood about a bit of grittiness and urban culture.
DO NOT DISTURB!
I am sizing up my taxes. Do I owe? Can I get something back? File for an extension?
Why do I support these crooks? Scared of jail?
MrM,
You went and got me going on the average tenor question, so I am grinding that corn atm - EOQ numbers going back to say EOY 2007...
reptillian i got doublely screwed. owed the fed and had cali owe me! 
Sorry, your comment didn't merit that kind of response. My apology for any undeserved offense.
The Lerners (owners of the Nationals) and WDC govt. (& taxpayers) took a huge risk in building the Nationals baseball park in SE Washington. The decisions were made and the construction completed in the heyday of the real estate boom. It was (& is) viewed as the cornerstone project for the re-development of this area, one of the more downtrodden in WDC. (The other side of the Anacostia is worse.) The Lerners, who own much of the land around the stadium, intend(ed) to build office buildings with abundant lower floor shopping. The WDC govt. and taxpayers invested more than $600M in the stadium to make sure DC got a baseball team and to stimulate the re-development the Lerners and others were seeking.
Unfortunately, property values have sunk, re-development is stalled for quite some time, the Nats are barely a major league caliber baseball team, game attendance is waaaay down, and the area still looks like-and in many ways is--a living hell. Couldn't imagine a worse set of circumstances of this area of Washington. Right now, there is little more than a gleaming, but near-empty diamond sitting in the middle of an ugly ghetto.
Upper Norhwest Washington DC is one of the nicest places in the country to live or to visit. Beautiful tree-lined streets, with nice people who are highly educated and cultured. It doesn't have the super-wealth of Manhattan, but does have lots of educated professionals who support the restaurants, schools (public and private) and the community. The economy there is doing well. I laugh when I see statistics that lump upper NW real estate in with the Washington metro stats. People kill to find nice homes in Cleveland Park, Woodley, and Spring Valley, and when a nice house comes up, it usually sells in a day, for above the asking price. Upper NW DC isn't paradise, but it's close to it.
O/T and lenghty but fascinating article on the squeeze being put on Iceland, E. Europe by the US, GB, EU and others
where's the rabbit?
Baseball teams in DC have always been awful.
They made a musical play/movie about it.
Damn Yankees.
NEVER feel sorry for anybody, never feel sorry for anybody, neverfeelsorryforanybody.
Liz: happy Easter to you too 
These projects didn't make a lot of sense, even prior to groundbreaking, with the emergence of NoMA (North of Massachuttes Ave) as an up-and-coming neighborhood that could offer significantly cheaper office space/retail and residential while being close (compared to the Ballpark area) to the Capital and Federal Agencies and next door to Union Station. The spread between the costs in these two neighborhoods is negligible, while the Capital Hill Riverfront, as it has come to be known, lacks the features that NoMA provides leading to most Non Profits and Federal Government Agencies focusing on NoMa and not giving much thought to the Riverfront. Additionally, a weaker market is allowing many potential Riverfront tenants to achieve the type of savings they are looking for while staying in Commodity Class A or B buildings in the established markets of the CBD or East End. The Capital Hill Riverfront will one day be a nice thriving area, but it will likely take 10 - 15 years which is probably the earliest we can expect to see a winning baseball team as well (IMHO).
Now I can see why reits went up 12% thursday.
Eoster.
And as per 2 threads back. Both bananas and avocadoes can be grown in south Fla.
I personally grew some bananas--not very well, and lots of people have avocado trees.
I think with some coddling they can grow in Merritt Island.
Off to plant some baby watermellon plants and some honeydew.
And more roses.
Why doesn't the Obama administration force insolvent banks and insurance companies to come clean about their losses first? It's the "why" that's so vexing.
I'm *afraid* it is because the truth would shock and horrify everyone, draining the last bits of confidence out of the system. I hope I'm wrong because that would mean things are much worse than most people think.
- Emma Anne -
'I guess D.C. residents feel they deserve somebody voicing their needs at a federal level, and believe they aren't listened to. Much like the rest of the country, I guess.'
No - DC does not have any congressional representation at all, and any local decisions can be overruled by Congress for any reason at any time. Not to mention that DC's funding and spending are also under 'indirect' control - the indirect meaning that Congress simply pretends that DC residents are actually involved in a process in which they have no say at all.
'As for the biblical-plague traffic afflicting NoVa, they deserve every second of it.'
Yep - it may not be pretty, but it is an exurban region.
The seat of Federal power needs to rotate among the States. Interested locations can bid just like the Olympics with one change. The lowest bid wins. D.C. was conceived such that it wouldn't develop its own constituency. The idea of Federal citizens has all the potential dangers we've discovered with the relatively recent concept of Federal corporations.
The seat of Federal power needs to rotate among the States.
No no no. The weather is so bad here in DC that it is incentive to get the hell out.
It's probably a contributing factor to why it was chosen in the first place... and then some jerk went and invented AC, which screwed us all since lawmakers have one fewer reason to leave.
_______________________
Other comments here on occasion.
And the stock market is declaring the battle over. Yeah, sure it is. Sure thing. LOL
Just a note from the last thread about American oil imports and the quantity sourced from the Americas -
'The top five exporting countries accounted for 64 percent of United States crude oil imports in January while the top ten sources accounted for approximately 85 percent of all U.S. crude oil imports. The top sources of US crude oil imports for January were Canada (1.946 million barrels per day), Saudi Arabia (1.337 million barrels per day), Mexico (1.299 million barrels per day), Venezuela (1.172 million barrels per day), and Iraq (0.568 million barrels per day). The rest of the top ten sources, in order, were Angola (0.527 million barrels per day), Nigeria (0.488 million barrels per day), Brazil (0.397 million barrels per day), Algeria (0.359 million barrels per day), and Ecuador (0.272 million barrels per day). Total crude oil imports averaged 9.852 million barrels per day in January, which is an increase of (0.433) million barrels per day from December 2008.'
http://www.eia.doe.gov/pub/oil_gas/petroleum/data_publications/company_l...
Looking at the table, the U.S. receives about 60% of its current oil imports from the Americas, which is roughly 5.5 million barrels a day, compared to roughly 4.3 million barrels a day from other sources. Canada is the top exporter to the U.S., but Saudi Arabia and Iraq combined roughly match Canada.
Interestingly, American imports are up, even as demand is reportedly down. Some people have a simple explanation for that statistic, based on geology, but why bother bringing such a controversial subject as geology into an American dominated forum. After all, for a majority of Americans, geology is simply a false science, one that worships at an altar of deception, seeing as how it contradicts the clearly revealed reality of creation.
http://www.bloomberg.com/apps/news?pid=20601087&sid=aNKKbdvi9W4E&refer=home
China Central Bank Pledges Sufficient Liquidity for Economy
Share | Email | Print | A A A
By Kevin Hamlin and Dune Lawrence
April 13 (Bloomberg) -- China's central bank said it will ensure sufficient liquidity to sustain economic growth, damping speculation regulators may seek to restrain credit after new loans jumped sixfold to a record in March.
Now China discovers Greenspan finance.
Hmm. Just watched the Krugman video. This part disturbed me: he said that he's not hearing anything, either in the public domain or in private murmurings, that indicates the administration is going to really deal with the financial/banking issues. I think a lot of people are hoping that they really do have a plan, but they are keeping it under wraps until it is time to execute, in order to prevent panic. Krugman wouldn't leak that if it were true - he doesn't want to cause the equivalent of bank runs either - but he wouldn't tell us it isn't happening either. It wasn't in response to a question. He volunteered it.
- Emma Anne -
'The idea of Federal citizens'
That is hilarious, in light of these statistics -
White persons, percent, 2007 (a) 39.4% (DC) 80.0% (national)
Black persons, percent, 2007 (a) 55.2% (DC) 12.8% (national)
If you seriously think that the black majority city of DC is filled with federal citizens, then you need to become familiar with where the real 'federal' citizens live - in Virginia and Maryland, where they are not subjected to being jerked around by Congress like all those 'federal citizens.' Though admittedly, there are some people living in NW who decided that they prefer a pleasant city environment on an older model - Rock Creek Park is quite nice, and being within an easy stroll of Neiman Marcus is certainly convenient, letting you mingle with people from all over the world that live in the area. All very, very legal, I might add - generally, the diplomatic corps cares about appearances.
As a matter of fact, many of those 'federal' citizens fit into a slightly older definition of exurban - that is, the definition which excluded such 'suburbs' as Front Royal, Winchester, or Fredericksburg from being considered part of the greater DC metro area in favor of such areas as Leesburg, Gainesville, or Manassas.
" Upper NW DC isn't paradise, but it's close to it."
hey, thats me!
Since you do not believe my ideas about innovation..
Who invented, created or designed the first
1. Programmable binary general puropse computer (that worked.. no partial models)
2. Developed the first effective anti-bacterial drug (broad spectrum)
3. Developed hypergolic rocket engines as we know them today (hydrazine + red nitric acid based.. we now use dimethyhydrazine and nitrogen teroxide)
4. Developed the first usable anti-histamine, tricyclic antidepressant, anti-psychotic.. pretty much any innovative first-of-its type drug.
5. Proposed and developed the principles of quantum mechanics.
In every single case, it was relatively unknown people working at some non-famous place that came up with the idea.. even the innovators from semi-famous places were not part of the 'clique'.
You could add aircraft, jet engines (axial compressor driven), assault rifles, the modern light machine gun, RPGs, car assembly lines, AC electricity.. I can go on..
The point is that people who spend time climbing the system are not creative or innovative. They are prisoners of status quo..
OT: Some events for the upcoming week...
http://www.euronews.net/business/business-agenda/
Tuesday – 14/04 · Netherlands-Philips results
On Tuesday, Dutch electronics giant Philips publishes it first quarter results against a backdrop of weakening demand. In addition, Philips' market leadership in medical equipment in the US is being threatened by GE's push into that business.
Wednesday – 15/04 · USA-US inflation
The US government releases the consumer price index for March on Wednesday. Prices are expected to have plunged, as Americans cut back their use of credit cards by a record amount.
Thursday – 16/04 · Germany-Euro zone industrial production
On Thursday, Eurostat announces February figures for industrial production in the euro zone. Recent data have already pointed to shrinking output, exacerbating the overall economic situation.
Friday – 17/04 · USA-Citigroup results
On Friday, Citigroup releases its first quarter results. The government-rescued US banking giant has made executive changes recently to steer the company through the financial turmoil.
Emma Anne,
Krugman isn't above talking his book. Remember he's a Keynesian and he does have a plan; spend $1.5 trillion. What he's saying is that he isn't hearing any programs that he thinks will work, not that he's not hearing any plans. By claim a void of ideas he's hoping his fills that vacuum.
Personally, while I disagree with the administration's actions it really is a kind of plan for them to play for time.
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Hmm. Just watched the Krugman video. This part disturbed me: he said that he's not hearing anything, either in the public domain or in private murmurings, that indicates the administration is going to really deal with the financial/banking issues. I think a lot of people are hoping that they really do have a plan, but they are keeping it under wraps until it is time to execute, in order to prevent panic. Krugman wouldn't leak that if it were true - he doesn't want to cause the equivalent of bank runs either - but he wouldn't tell us it isn't happening either. It wasn't in response to a question. He volunteered it.
Seems like Krugman is incrementally beginning to realize the control that the finance industry has over the government. I hear him talking about "cognitive regulatory capture" more frequently.
It will be amusing if one day Krugman has a public epiphany about the existential dangers of powerful centralized governments (namely that they can be hijacked by bad people, even if they start with the best of intentions).
Perhaps Krugman will one day be everybody's favorite "Right Wing" economist.
Well, nobody dug out the dc1000 flaming posts.
I have been reminded Sebastian's mea culpa. How about dc1000?
He had a bunch of nasty chicken little comments.
Would someone link to dc1000's mea culpa?
Well, nobody dug out the dc1000 flaming posts.
I have been reminded Sebastian's mea culpa. How about dc1000?
He had a bunch of nasty chicken little comments.
Would someone link to dc1000's mea culpa?
Anybody seen steve or tennis_8 lately?
BTW I'm still mad at CR for banning DOOMSTER.
"cognitive regulatory capture"
I'm waiting for someone with Krugman's clout to talk about "regulatory extortion." Too big to fail really seems to mean, "BK or receivership will trigger a million CDS time bombs."
"cognitive regulatory capture"
I'm waiting for someone with Krugman's clout to talk about "regulatory extortion."
I like that term.
The question remains, though, are they extorting the government or just the public.
"Upper Norhwest Washington DC is one of the nicest places in the country to live or to visit. "
That's where we live - in a middle-class, racially integrated neighborhood. Couldn't be finer. We're not going anywhere. I don't know of another place in the country with its advantages. Everything we need is in a five mile radius or closer, including the hiking trails of a national park. As for the summer weather, we just move a bit more slowly then.
Pavel Chichikov
I'd wager "glimmers of hope" is going to be remembered the same way as Bush's "mission accomplished" or Cheney's "last throes".
Obama would have been the fifth face on Mt. Rushmore if he just did the right thing. Like the Jonathan Weil article, I really don't understand *why* Obama sold out so quickly and completely.
When the outcome is going to be rough, it's much better for the health of the nation to arrive at that situation by following the rule of law. Americans will bear great hardship if the costs are borne by all classes. What we have now is simply indefensible.
--
The Zombie Apocalypse begins when U3 hits 15%
I'm waiting for someone with Krugman's clout to talk about "regulatory extortion."
Amen. Someone here suggested that "let's roll" [1] ought to be the battle cry against such extortion.
Telling people "you will lose your job" unless we bail out the banks is 1:1 with "the terrorists will win" unless we invade the desert.
[1] http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Let%27s_roll
--
The Zombie Apocalypse begins when U3 hits 15%
http://www.nolanchart.com:80/article6281.html
Amazing Public Comments on the FDIC/Treasury "Legacy Loans Program"
--------------------------------------------------------------------------------
The LLP consisting of PPIFs (Public-Private-Investment Funds) is T.H.E.F.T. I can't believe some of the comments posted.
" I'd wager "glimmers of hope" is going to be remembered the same way as Bush's "mission accomplished" or Cheney's "last throes". "
there is nothing wrong with glimmers of hope as long as it doesn't become a collection of false signals.
http://zerohedge.blogspot.com/2009/04/quantology-revisited-negative-conv...
I share their concern. A rapid rally on a low volume could spell big trouble. Another blow to our sentiment could diminish any possibility of V shaped recovery.
Have enjoyed reading the Sebastianization of DC above. Which is not to say the admired areas of the city are not beautiful and interesting.
Nonetheless, many of you have just repeated the transition from seeing no evidence of local problems to accepting changes on the outskirts of the metro area. And then identifying certain parts of the city as immune, though others appear to be showing decline.
All very San Francisco 2006 - 2009.
ac: "It will be amusing if one day Krugman has a public epiphany about the existential dangers of powerful centralized governments (namely that they can be hijacked by bad people, even if they start with the best of intentions).
Perhaps Krugman will one day be everybody's favorite "Right Wing" economist."
LoL! I like the twist, ac. But he is a died-in-the-wool proponent of bigger government, ac. Almost all academics are. It's the natural result of living off government money (grants etc), and is a way to ensure continued membership in the social community of academia. I've attended social events (years ago when I was in the academic world) where the attendees openly assume everyone is a Democrat without even bothering to ask. My guess is that less than 20% of academics are right of center, and more than 50% are notably left of center.
LoL! I like the twist, ac. But he is a died-in-the-wool proponent of bigger government, ac. Almost all academics are. It's the natural result of living off government money (grants etc), and is a way to ensure continued membership in the social community of academia. I've attended social events (years ago when I was in the academic world) where the attendees openly assume everyone is a Democrat without even bothering to ask. My guess is that less than 20% of academics are right of center, and more than 50% are notably left of center.
Schumpeter had specific words about this problem. In a way he was kind of pleading with academics that their future would be better if they weren't so self-centered and insular. This is why I have a deep concern about carrer academics being influential economists. I think their viewpoint is in a sense self-serving and sociopathic. In an ideal world economists would be required to have an academic background but also a record of success in private industry:
PatientRenter, it's time to move past the old paradigm of 'Left' and 'Right', one created by the elites to divide the People, and worry about the divide that matters: The ruling top and everyone else below.
"This is why I have a deep concern about carrer academics being influential economists. I think their viewpoint is in a sense self-serving and sociopathic."
As opposed to the self-serving sociopathics economists working for the IB's.
Too funny.
there is nothing wrong with glimmers of hope as long as it doesn't become a collection of false signals
Manufacturing hope is as wrong as manufacturing enemies.
"1984" had both, IIRC.
--
The Zombie Apocalypse begins when U3 hits 15%
LoL! I like the twist, ac. But he is a died-in-the-wool proponent of bigger government, ac. Almost all academics are. It's the natural result of living off government money (grants etc), and is a way to ensure continued membership in the social community of academia. I've attended social events (years ago when I was in the academic world) where the attendees openly assume everyone is a Democrat without even bothering to ask. My guess is that less than 20% of academics are right of center, and more than 50% are notably left of center.
Keep yourself trapped in that out-dated LEFTRIGHTDEMREP paradigm while both "sides" rob you blind, you dumb shit.
The MSM and BigBussiness gearing up for immigration expansion and amnesty.
Expect wages for targeted Americans to go down.
"cognitive regulatory capture"
I prefer: "quantatative squeezing."
Aanoonnyymmoouussee:
+ 1
Schumpeter had specific words about this problem. In a way he was kind of pleading with academics that their future would be better if they weren't so self-centered and insular. This is why I have a deep concern about career academics being influential economists.
Interestingly enough, Schumpeter himself was a career academic, with brief spells as the Austrian Finance Minister and then as the head of a private Austrian bank which went bankrupt, and an influential economist
In an ideal world economists would be required to have an academic background but also a record of success in private industry
Investment Bankers have the best "record of success" in private industry, to date. What we need are economists who realize that only about 1% of their field of study is really about the economy. The economy is an afterthought to the human experience; it is the pond scum on top of a supporting ecosystem. If people don't have faith, if society doesn't have cohesion, if children aren't being raised with doting dilligence, then the "economy" is just a bunch of numbers supporting an academic's fiction, and everything falls apart. When the field of economics is more interested in getting things done in the real world and less concerned about ditching qualitative analysis for the more "legitimate" blind and insane quantative approach, then maybe they'd be worthy of our respect. Until then, it's a bankrupt field full of paid experts producing the thought their patrons order up.
The MSM and BigBussiness gearing up for immigration expansion and amnesty.
Expect wages for targeted Americans to go down.
The Dems need more votes, the Republicans need more cheap labor for their patrons.
Long Human Cattle
'And then identifying certain parts of the city as immune'
Some parts of the city are immune, at least in the sense that they are embassies, government buildings, or otherwise completely bound up in the business of DC, which is power.
What is likely to prove anything but immune are commercial projects relying on commercial terms for commercial profit, including living space such as condos. Generally, the most successful projects in DC are intimately wrapped up in the business of government, though with the advent of Crystal City several decades ago, the idea of 'DC' expanded.
Or to put it a bit differently - there are some fascinating buildings on Rt 28 in Fairfax which, while commercial real estate, are basically black holes - and that status is enforced with all of the tools that the U.S. government has at its disposal to keep that way. And the 'landlords' are likely cleaning up in ways that would make the TARP brigade green with envy. Nothing but the best for our boys in whatever classified color it is they wear.
Much more of the American government is hidden from view than most posters here seem aware of - a not trivial percentage of the DC market fits into that category. But it is not a market based on supply and demand - it is based on connections and secrecy.
The most dangerous part about the study of economics is the illusion that it's the cause of, and not the totaly supervenient, subservient result of our prosperity.
Investment Bankers have the best "record of success" in private industry, to date.
Then pray tell why the stock market's stuck in 1998 and we're bailing out the investment banks and, according to the posters here, on the brink of financial collapse?.
What is your metric for 'success'?
Just flipped on the Mets-Marlins game, and the place looks 90% empty. Looks like they've closed off half the stadium:
http://media.ticketmaster.com/en-us/tmimages/venue/maps/flo/26542s.gif
Strangely, the ticket prices still average $40/each. I bet they'd sell out every game if tix were $10.
------------------
sacrealstats
We are all successes now.
The purpose of an economy is a means to the end of a humane life for individual human beings. If it weren't an imperfect but necessary mechanism for reducing needfulness, providing an alternate to violence, and giving customs and conventions for exchange, we wouldn't want one. If you disagree and think that economic prosperity is an end unto itself, I suggest you break a few windows and violently rape someone to help boost your nation's GDP. Give a window factory and a few doctors something to do. Hell, start a war with a third world country. Our life is meaningful so long as we're engaging in production to the exclusion of all else.
Just flipped on the Mets-Marlins game, and the place looks 90% empty. Looks like they've closed off half the stadium: Strangely, the ticket prices still average $40/each.
Peak ticket prices?
Full Stop wrote on Sun, 04/12/2009 - 11:45am.
Investment Bankers have the best "record of success" in private industry, to date.
Then pray tell why the stock market's stuck in 1998 and we're bailing out the investment banks and, according to the posters here, on the brink of financial collapse?.
What is your metric for 'success'?
About seventeen carribean islands and an offshore bank account the size of Guatemala's GDP. Do you think any of these motherfuckers are crying about the fact that your 401k is at 1998 levels? That's their "record of success" in private industry. They won. They were successful. The market rewarded them for their skillful talents. Now let's put them in charge of the country.
Too often, "success in private industry" is a proxy argument for "let's let all the rich guys in to run everything to their benefit." They're rich, therefore they must be successful, so they'll make us rich too!!!
What needs to be drilled into the stupid american head is that almost all of our "rich" "successes in private industry" are there because they're fucking crooks. You don't get rich in this country through playing by the rules; playing by the rules is the standard, the rule, it's what most people do. You get rich by being a fucking crook, by breaking the rules, and then using your money later to manufacture your own "legacy."
Where is DC1000 ?
"Buzzz, Buzzz, Buzzz,
This is not a test, this is not a test of the Emergency Psyche Alert System
The Psyche Alert broadcasters in your area have issued this alert for you to be on the lookout for syndicated media broadcasters promoting the Somali Pirate story. Both Right and Left wing media outlets are in on it as mandated by the CFR.
TPTB have dispatched their Psy-ops teams and have mandated their news agencies broadcast the Somali Pirate story at regular intervals.
Our Psyche Alert psychology experts have identified this threat as extreme. Don't be fooled by it!
This sinister psyche operation is designed to distract you from discussing financial matters with your families during your Easter visits. TPTB do not want you talking about how much you lost in your 401K last quarter, last year, or how much you lost on your investments. They do not want you making decisions come Monday concerning your investments in the stock market. They want to keep you on the hamster wheel.
See the Somali Pirate story for what it is. The human interest story centered around Captain Richard Phillips is designed to distract you from more important discussions such as the upcoming Taxday Tea Party Protests and financial matters. TPTB have even dispatched their communique to church congregations to pray for the staged captured captain. Do Not be Fooled!
It has been determined by our psychology team that the captured Captain may be released today and associated with the resurrection of Jesus Christ on this day, probably around dinner time.
The Psyche Alert System will keep you informed of the Psyche operations being played on you. This is a very sophisticated operation. Please take all precautions and protect yourselves.
This is not a test."
It has been determined by our psychology team that the captured Captain may be released today and associated with the resurrection of Jesus Christ on this day, probably around dinner time.
Just as my psyche team predicted in my post at 12:21 PM today, the US ship captain's rescue followed.!
--------------------------------------------------------------------------
Learn the 7TH Amendment maggot!
Red Beckman - Fully Informed Jury
http://video.google.com/videoplay?docid=7385583011526915030&hl=en
Where is DC1000 ?
Aannoonnyymmoouussee
+2
Find their gated communities. Send the mud-caked pickup trucks loaded with laid off steelworkers to the pristine suburbs of Connecticut and New Jersey. Fly a tattered american flag off the flatbed. Take back what's yours, and give them what's theirs. With interest.
Michael, you actually have a point.
That is indeed the deal.
Totally agree that giving rein to left versus right political tendencies are unhelpful in arriving at good answers to real issues, Full Stop. I also think it is unhelpful to see our most recent economic or financial problems as the result primarily of a small morally corrupt elite looting the good, wholesome majority.
What has occurred is simply the result of a combination of forces, all driven ultimately by the perceived or actual self-interest of a majority of our entire population, and mediated through mechanisms that partly conceal the true / long-term upsides and downsides for the parties.
Vague? For example, the most recent bubble in home prices was driven not just by a few thousand wealthy Wall Streeters who securitized and rated bad MBSs. They were merely one link in the chain. People who could have rented instead were motivated to buy, regardless of price, by visions of free lunches through future HPA (aka "building equity"). These homeowners voted for congressmen who pandered to them by letting FNMA, Freddie, FHA etc offer high-risk mortages with low money down, and pushed the Fed for ever-easier money (which wasn't very hard with Greenspan and Bernanke), and preserved the ridiculous mortgage interest deduction. When you consider who benefited the most from the bubble in asset prices, it's mostly members of the general public who owned homes or stocks. Of course, the benefits were often perceived, not real, as the claims on future goods and services represented by those inflated asset prices cannot all be converted into actual future goods and services. Some people lucked out by cashing in before the crash, others never gained much because they bought too late....
They tell us, 'Let them eat cake'.
I prefer their hearts.
Noreps, the point if I had one would have been that commercial and residential neighborhoods, however pleasant, show no immunity to the forces which have brought down similar areas elsewhere.
Hillsborough didn't enter the downturn until long after Key Biscayne did. These areas are not fortresses - their residents and developers have not yet needed to own up to various abuses of credit, though they can now see that some may have to do that eventually. The desirability of an area doesn't indicate the soundness of the underlying borrowing.
The argument that X neighborhood is wealthy, international, beautiful, degreed and thus will be excused, is invalid.
But you'll read it here again, I'll bet.
"Expect wages for targeted Americans to go down"
Solar panel installation jobs are going to pay 90K. It's a good thing low paying jobs in IT, engineering and manufacturing are being outsourced.
" . . . it's mostly members of the general public who owned homes or stocks. Of course, the benefits were often perceived, not real, as the claims on future goods and services represented by those inflated asset prices cannot all be converted into actual future goods and services. Some people lucked out by cashing in before the crash, others never gained much because they bought too late.... "
Until I see clawbacks on bonuses paid the last 10 years on phantom profits, I think one group of people did make good their claim on future goods or services.
Don't hate the player. Hate the game.
Vague?
Why did you make the first four long sentences of that post when you could have just used that one word and gotten the same point across.
A your long post explaining the process of blood loss and organ failure and how long it takes to get to the hospital does nothing but obfuscate the real essential fact here. Someone shot us in the head. They are tangible, physical people who can feel pain, which is the other important part of this equation. I don't care about the rest. Let me redact your post to contain nothing but the essential features:
a few thousand wealthy Wall Streeters
A hundred million verses a thousand; how fast do you think they can run?
Include all professions in H-1B and lower the quota and stop the emp;loyer holding the visa and it'd be an okay program.
It was a staged psy-ops event. The secret memos will be released shortly exposing the false flag operation.
--------------------------------------------------------------------------
Learn the 7TH Amendment maggot!
Red Beckman - Fully Informed Jury
http://video.google.com/videoplay?docid=7385583011526915030&hl=en
"Include all professions in H-1B and lower the quota and stop the emp;loyer holding the visa and it'd be an okay program."
Please tell me why? Don't the people on this board believe America's unemployment rate will rise? Why not institute a five-year moratorium on immigration so we can properly 'digest' what we already have?
Why not, for a spell, say America is for Americans before taking another bite of the population pie?
And no, this is not a skin color issue. It's a Citizen issue.
From KD:
There is a rumor about Goldman Sachs flying around on the street - allegedly they are about to report their second-best quarter in history, +$12 billion or so.
Geithner, Paulson named in $200 billion lawsuit
AIG-related case claims they violated shareholders constitutional rights
© 2009 WorldNetDaily
A $200 billion lawsuit filed on behalf of shareholders of American International Group has been amended to include Treasury Secretary Tim Geithner, former Treasury Secretary Henry Paulson and former Securities and Exchange Commission Chairman Christopher Cox as defendants.
The case, filed earlier by a public interest law firm, Freedom Watch USA, is on behalf of shareholders of AIG who have watched the value of the company plummet by some $214 billion.
Can a sitting president induce a civil suit pardon?
Basel Too:
The bears will be annihilated by week's end. Everyday, some bank will announce a record or near record profit.
Theatre of the Absurd.
Full Stop, as many people have said before here and elsewhere, there is lots of blame to go around.
My only point is that I think it's too easy to blame the left-wing politicians, or the right-wing politicians, or the bankers, or the regulators. For most of us, these represent "other people". It's always easier to blame other people. For example, in the 1930's, many Germans learned to assign blame for their problems on "other people". Yes, these "other people" did play disproportionately important roles in the German economy, but the problems that afflicted Germany at the time were not exclusively the fault of any one small group.
It's fun to give vent to these "blame others" feelings, but they also need to be taken apart by logic, and held in check. I am angry with the Federal Reserve for enabling asset bubbles, and with rating agencies for being blinded by short-term profits, and so on, but I am not ready to say that the majority of the population wasn't just as greedy and blind. They just didn't have as much at stake individually as some bankers and financial professionals. Collectively, they had even more at stake, and were thoroughly irresponsible. When you look at the members of Congress who most enthusiastically advocated easier money for housing, they were re-elected handily, and are mostly still very popular, and are still advocating more easy money.
So who will walk away with the most from asset price inflation over the last 25 years? I would love to see an objective study on that. Doubtless the professionals will get a lot, because their rewards were in the form of compensation that they get to keep even when asset prices go down. But from all the people I know who bought their first home since 1981 for way, way less than it's worth today, or bought stocks for much less than they are worth even today, I'd say that the general public are still ahead by trillions from this game. Do you know of a good "where did all the asset price inflation benefits go" study, by an apolitical and solid economist?
patientrenter, we have the most unequal distribution of wealth since the Great Depression and had the highest share of income going to those in finance since the same. It's not that the broad public behaved responsibly, but the vast majority, for whatever blame they undoubtedly share, have still been left with nothing to show for it. That is, they have mostly internalized the costs of their mistakes and now might be able to learn from them. You can't say the same about those in financial services who left the scam with swollen bank accounts to show for their trouble. The problem isn't retrospective responsibility; it's about what incentives are being created for the future. The lesson seems to be get into the heart of the fraud, make as much as you can, and leave the wreckage for the peons. That does not bode well for the future.
There is a rumor about Goldman Sachs flying around on the street - allegedly they are about to report their second-best quarter in history, +$12 billion or so.
This could get ugly.
'The argument that X neighborhood is wealthy, international...'
Well, parts of NW are not at all like any other part of the U.S. - part of that based on the fact that parts of NW don't actually belong to the U.S., being the sovereign territory of the embassies of the nations that own them. And as long as DC is the capital of a world power, that will remain eminently so.
But this isn't a market perspective - since this, like many things in DC, this is not about markets, but about power, though of the more traditional and generally civilized variety between nations. The foreign embassies are unlikely to go downscale to any significant extent any time soon, nor will their rotating staffs. Not to mention losing this NW neighborhood amenity - 'In 1970, Public Law 91-217 expanded the role of the White House Police, newly named the Executive Protective Service, to include protection of diplomatic missions in the Washington, D.C.,area.' http://www.secretservice.gov/ud.shtml
Though there are a couple of areas outside of DC where this exclusive service can be assumed to be available (good luck finding out details - that is not exactly public information in this day and age) - McLean/Great Falls, Va, for example, where a certain Saudi prince used to live. An area which just also happens to be very conveniently located across the Potomac from that section of NW and also where the CIA has its headquarters.
There are some things very, very different about DC, even if these days, they tend to be downplayed, and in the greater scheme of things, might not represent much that concerns people interested in a real estate market.
After all, there doesn't seem to be an Embassy and Staff Living magazine covering that market segment. In part, because it would be brutally suppressed if it published even a fraction of the truth which circulates in such rarefied circles - for example, the specialized market involving antenna siting alone would be blacked out pretty much from beginning to end.
"UVa declined an invitation in the 1980s."
I thought this meme only reared its head in the Patriot League.
patientrenter, we have the most unequal distribution of wealth since the Great Depression and had the highest share of income going to those in finance since the same."
I just finished a Clive Cussler book, Plague Ship (its a great beach book...). Anyway, one of the protagonists is someone who believes that overpopulation has caused a variety of problems. The opening quote in the book reads,
"Arguably the greatest transfer of wealth in human history occurred when the Plague swept through Europe and killed a third of its population. Lands were consolidated, allowing for a greater standard of living, not only for owners but also for those who worked for them. This event was the greatest single contributor to the Renaissance and gave rise to Europe's eventual domination of the world."
I wonder how we'll look back on this period of time...
Patient Renter,
I don't know of a study like that, but agree it would be most beneficial.
I must say, though, that with all due respect, I disagree as to who is the liable party on this. I just can't agree that it's everyone. You're right that many were involved, be the bankers, investors, flippers, raters, politicians, etc. First, ignoring the fact many people if not most did not engage in risky housing and debt more specifically, individually our actions amount to nothing, not even statistical noise. It of course also applies to our power of a but a single vote cast among many, but even in sum they still amount to little. It appears even our vote for president doesn't matter. I voted Obama and had an entirely different expectation of his actions regarding the economy. Disappointment doesn't come close describing it. Cynically, then, it must be posed: Do we REALLY have a choice today? The Dems and Reps are controlled by the same powerful and quasi-eternal forces. Regardless who you vote for, the will of the ruling elite is what happens because they will alway be around, and their families, long after the politicians, their Ghetto-Polizei, are long since gone and dead.
And while I do not have a specific chart of where all the price inflation went, I've got a pretty good idea: America's balance sheet and more now than ever. And I think everyone here fears that the last and greatest bubble will be America's debt. There's a dinner bell ringing somewhere and all the sharks and hustlers are hearing its chime: Get it while the getting's hot, for afterwards, there'll be naught.
To heal, the blame must be uncovered and the lawbreakers approptriately punished and IMHO, only through that catharsis we can get over so much pain.
In the meantime, that's a really good idea for a chart. I'll poke around and see if it's out there.
Cheers and have a Happy Easter.
Why is my 12:21 post buried between an 11:37AM post and an 11:40AM post?
--------------------------------------------------------------------------
Learn the 7TH Amendment maggot!
Red Beckman - Fully Informed Jury
http://video.google.com/videoplay?docid=7385583011526915030&hl=en
"I am sizing up my taxes. Do I owe? Can I get something back? File for an extension?"
.......just write on the front of your 1040: "UNKNOWN - Currently Undergoing Stress Tests and simultaneously accepting applications for limited Private/Public Investment Partnerships for Toxic Liabilities".........screw 'em - see what they say about it. Make them respond to you. It would be worth the penalty.
- - - - -
Black 
Ranch
The Economic Black Plague struck first in New York before quickly spreading around the world.
.......just write on the front of your 1040: "UNKNOWN - Currently Undergoing Stress Tests and simultaneously accepting applications for limited Private/Public Investment Partnerships for Toxic Liabilities".........screw 'em - see what they say about it. Make them respond to you. It would be worth the penalty.
Nominated for Best Post Of The Day....
Spot on Sanity Clause.
There is a rumor about Goldman Sachs flying around on the street - allegedly they are about to report their second-best quarter in history, +$12 billion or so
There is another rumor that says GS is going raise $5-6 Bil in equity offering.
Both of these rumors can't be true - unless much of this "second best quarterly profit" is due to mark up from moving assets into Level 3
sanityclause: "It's not that the broad public behaved responsibly, but the vast majority, for whatever blame they undoubtedly share, have still been left with nothing to show for it."
I am not trying to be argumentative, sanityclause, but I think the majority do still have something to show from asset price inflation over the last quarter-century. Home prices are still way above long-term trend values, and stocks are way above their prices in the 1980's. There are many tens of millions of people whose assets are still above their cost basis, or who cashed in prior gains. That's many trillions of gain. And I think many absolutely have not learned the personal lessons. Almost everyone I know thinks the drop in value of their house or 401k from its peak is unfair and is due mostly to someone else's bad behavior. I ask, but not out loud, who they voted for in the last Congressional election, or why they assume their assets can only go down, or why it's fair to assume they will receive $2 or even $5, in goods and services, adjusted for inflation, from their kids' generation for each $1 they produced, but deferred consumption of, 20 years ago.
Minneapolis is finishng the new Twins stadium sometime before next season. Naturally, they picked the run-down armpit of the downtown warehouse district on lousy soil next to a central garbage burner. But all the pictures in the glowing sales pitch talked about 'Twinsville' and all the hundreds of businesses and thousands of apartments and condos that would pop up and revive this area (never mind that they'll be next to an empty, frozen hulk for seven months of the year).
So it goes. Every new generation has its P. T. Barnums who find the way to pick that particular group clean.
Minneapolis is finishng the new Twins stadium sometime before next season. Naturally, they picked the run-down armpit of the downtown warehouse district on lousy soil next to a central garbage burner. But all the pictures in the glowing sales pitch talked about 'Twinsville' and all the hundreds of businesses and thousands of apartments and condos that would pop up and revive this area (never mind that they'll be next to an empty, frozen hulk for seven months of the year).
So it goes. Every new generation has its P. T. Barnums who find the way to pick that particular group clean.
I'm not sure why these post appear twice. I don't submit them twice.
The opening quote in the book reads,
"Arguably the greatest transfer of wealth in human history occurred when the Plague swept through Europe and killed a third of its population. Lands were consolidated, allowing for a greater standard of living, not only for owners but also for those who worked for them. This event was the greatest single contributor to the Renaissance and gave rise to Europe's eventual domination of the world."
I wonder how we'll look back on this period of time... "
Mike, not every change is progressive. History is unitary, not fragmentary. One could as soon link the Plague to the Renaissance to Stalin and Hiroshima, and thence to..... who knows?
Pavel Chichikov
and thence to..... who knows?
The Hoopajoop.
"...parts of NW don't actually belong to the U.S., being the sovereign territory of the embassies of the nations that own them. "
If you've ever worked at an embassy you know what extra-territoriality means. It is sovereign soil, with all that implies. When you enter the Brazilian Embassy, for example, it is legally no different from entering Brazil.
Pavel Chichikov
Pavel, there is a direct link between the Black Plague and the Renaissance. The newly wealthy discarded their old linens for new or even silks. The old worst clothes were turned into linen paper but since you only had scribes, it stacked up. This out of opportunity was born the printing press and the Renaissance.
Full Stop, I agree with your basic thesis. I think we probably just have a small difference in emphasis, and I appreciate the civil discourse. When I see Barney Frank or Ken Lewis, I see people who are driven by more powerful forces to act within a narrow range. You, I am guessing, see people who can and should act outside that range, even if it means career suicide for them. In truth, people at the apex of power, as these people are, bear enough responsibility for the welfare of others that they should be prepared to commit that career suicide if necessary. In an environment where everyone is waiving moral hazard, I don't see that happening. Unfortunate. It doesn't make me admire them, or the spineless shareholders or voters who let them continue.
If you see that study on who got the spoils, I am sure the community here would be very interested. I've been looking for it for a while now, but haven't seen anything, so I am not sure one exists yet. Maybe Paul Krugman could assign it to one of his graduate students!
patientrenter, I agree with much of what you said. Most have still learned nothing from this, continue to hope for leaders that can reinflate asset prices, and believe it a right that values (stocks, homes, etc.) should only go up. But they still might learn. There's time, and the adjustment process is just beginning.
On the amount of people that have benefited from long-term inflation, this post by Mish had a lot of good info. You could correctly say that people below the top tier, which is heavily associated with finance, nonetheless consumed far beyond their means for years, so they experienced a benefit, but it's mostly been used up, and there's not a lot of hope for them going forward. The adjustment in living standards going forward will cause a much greater reevaluation of policy and priorities for them than for those in finance.
http://globaleconomicanalysis.blogspot.com/2009/03/boomers-future-went-d...
This post from Krugman (taking from Philipon and Reshef, who might be partisan for whatever I know) also shows wages for those in finance relative to the broader economy: http://krugman.blogs.nytimes.com/2009/04/07/the-financial-factor/
"You, I am guessing, see people who can and should act outside that range, even if it means career suicide for them."
Yes. The founding fathers signed a document that was more than just career 'suicide' if caught by the King's men.
Sadly, we seem to be short those kind of people today.
Or are we?
Sanity Clause in the house!
Where are the 3-4 million jobs promised with the stimulus package?
Where is that money being spent and has it arrived in official bank accounts to be drawn against?
Is there any group out there tracking this information?
I got my start in real estate in 1992. First job out of college as a CRE appraiser in the DC area. Remember the RTC?
Last year there were people on this blog saying DC was immune. I advised them to read some history. they told me government money made them immune. Some of them are now declaring bankruptcy.
I was in DC a few weeks ago. Right in downtown staying at a nice old hilton. A few blocks away there was a huge hole in the ground where a big new building was supposed to be. check back in 10 years to see if it is there yet.
blood in the streets? Not yet. I'm really hoping this rally continues. If they can get IYR up into the 40's, SRS will be like a license to steal. I'm assuming we have upside until Goldman does their new offering. That is when I buy more SRS. And FAZ.
" We, therefore, the Representatives of the united States of America, in General Congress, Assembled, appealing to the Supreme Judge of the world for the rectitude of our intentions, do, in the Name, and by the Authority of the good People of these Colonies, solemnly publish and declare, That these United Colonies are, and of Right ought to be Free and Independent States; that they are Absolved from all Allegiance to the British Crown, and that all political connection between them and the State of Great Britain, is and ought to be totally dissolved; and that as Free and Independent States, they have full Power to levy War, conclude Peace, contract Alliances, establish Commerce, and to do all other Acts and Things which Independent States may of right do. And for the support of this Declaration, with a firm reliance on the protection of divine Providence, we mutually pledge to each other our Lives, our Fortunes and our sacred Honor."
From the dec'l of independence
parts of NW don't actually belong to the U.S., being the sovereign territory of the embassies of the nations that own them.
Popular misconception. Embassies are immune from host jurisdiction under Article 22 of the Vienna Convention, but are not extraterritorial or sovereign.
That is when I buy more SRS. And FAZ.
By the time all the money center banks are done reporting their "earnings," FAS and FAZ will have crossed.
I for one do hereby pledge.
Norep, extraterritorial rights are not unique to the District. And they're perfectly well-understood by persons living outside Our Nation's Capitol.
Are there enough embassies and legations to preserve the city from RE devaluation? Permit me to doubt it.
If you've ever worked at an embassy you know what extra-territoriality means. It is sovereign soil, with all that implies.
Hey, that generates an idea! China could take its US treasury bonds and buy up a whole quadrant of DC (south east, or whatever),. and maybe two, and make it into a 'Maquiladora' where they could pay $0.50 and hour to the US unemployed and save the cost of shipping from China for the clothes, toys and electronic playthings that the US craves. Maybe a car factory or two also. Just make the territory sovereign China land - with their embassy located there, (or just a consulate). They could even evade the building height limit in DC and build the world's tallest building there, to indicate who is boss. Since it would be on the Potomac, they could add a Chinese Navy base there as well, and park some ballastic missile subs and an aircraft carrier. I suppose they could also declare that the airspace above the Chinese enclave was restricted so US aircraft couldn't enter.
We could extend this sovereign region concept to other big holders of US debt: Saudia Arabia, et. al. They could choose which cities they wanted a major chunk of. Great way to retire all that foreign held debt!
Interactive map of certain taxes by state . Wonder what this will look like in a year.
http://articles.moneycentral.msn.com/Taxes/best-and-worst-taxes-by-state...
Maybe we could sell D.C. as an amusement park. Someone must be able to pay 10 to 20 trilliion, right?
I don't understand why everyone bashes DC weather. You get beautiful, long springs and autumns, mild winters, and mildly uncomfortable summers. It's really only bad for a few weeks in July and a few in August. I've lived in many other parts of the US, and aside from San Diego, DC has by far the best weather of any of them. Summer here isn't really any worse than NYC (while the other three seasons are far preferable). The difference between 96 and humid and 92 and humid is barely perceptible.
When my wife was in grad school, she spent a few weeks studying the economic impact of stadium redevelopment projects, and the fact is that most end up a resounding failure. There's no reason to believe DC will end up any other way. The stadium itself is nice, if lacking character, but the are around it is too isolated (and without a roof, the space cannot be effectively used during non-baseball months). The Verizon Center redevelopment worked because it's at hub of major Metro (subway) lines, so access is easy. You can get their easily from anywhere in the metro area. But Nationals Park is on a spur of the green line, making access less than convenient for everyone but a few people in DC and MD. Returning home after a game is a pain the butt - I cannot imagine how bad it would be the stadium was ever more than 1/3 full.
Diamond City Resident,
No worries, I wasn't trying to troll out NOVA residents, because as I led with, D.C. is a great city.
I got a good chuckle out of 'Obese Joe Bob' from Kentucky. I may change my handle to that someday, and if so, I have you to thank.
MM
I feel guilty for not calling out the stupidity of people taking on too much debt abd speculating on real estate. That and not realizing the systemic risk to my own well being in the crash.
Criminal behavior involving mortgages? Noooooo?
http://www3.signonsandiego.com/stories/2009/apr/08/1n8fraud225746-24-peo...
I don't think you can use the word 'intellectual' when 40%+ of the grads go into finance.
Looks like I should have said "extraterritorial rights are understood to mean may different things."
I first encountered an example long ago where San Marino's legation at Florence was instrumental in protecting a number of refugees during the last days of WWII.
Never mind - could I be any more off topic?
A little background in terms of DC would be in order for those unfamiliar with the town where a third of their present wealth and a majority of their future wealth is destroyed each and every day.
Uhh.... (1/3) to the power n never hits zero, but after 10 (business?) days, it's gotten whacked by a factor of 59049
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Also Rosebud Junk Co
Any idea how much outstanding GM debt is covered by CDS?
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Also Rosebud Junk Co
Major news editor memos are being sent to a secure location revealing this psychological pirate operation as a planned event. Details will be revealed shortly to the highest bidder for the true story.
--------------------------------------------------------------------------
Learn the 7TH Amendment maggot!
Red Beckman - Fully Informed Jury
http://video.google.com/videoplay?docid=7385583011526915030&hl=en
The wealth transfer was the least significant effect. The biggie was the church's loss of power. The church was never as powerful again..
PS- After the baby boomers move on, we will have a similar change of property in most western countries.. the generation after them are smaller.
/Arguably the greatest transfer of wealth in human history occurred when the Plague swept through Europe and killed a third of its population. //
In talks with Larry Flint for the intercepted memos from all major news agencies promoting the Pirate story. This pirate charade is going to be blown wide open.
--------------------------------------------------------------------------
Learn the 7TH Amendment maggot!
Red Beckman - Fully Informed Jury
http://video.google.com/videoplay?docid=7385583011526915030&hl=en
Ken, please. I'm begging you.
Original comment from 12:21PM today;
Buzzz, Buzzz, Buzzz,
This is not a test, this is not a test of the Emergency Psyche Alert System
The Psyche Alert broadcasters in your area have issued this alert for you to be on the lookout for syndicated media broadcasters promoting the Somali Pirate story. Both Right and Left wing media outlets are in on it as mandated by the CFR.
TPTB have dispatched their Psy-ops teams and have mandated their news agencies broadcast the Somali Pirate story at regular intervals.
Our Psyche Alert psychology experts have identified this threat as extreme. Don't be fooled by it!
This sinister psyche operation is designed to distract you from discussing financial matters with your families during your Easter visits. TPTB do not want you talking about how much you lost in your 401K last quarter, last year, or how much you lost on your investments. They do not want you making decisions come Monday concerning your investments in the stock market. They want to keep you on the hamster wheel.
See the Somali Pirate story for what it is. The human interest story centered around Captain Richard Phillips is designed to distract you from more important discussions such as the upcoming Taxday Tea Party Protests and financial matters. TPTB have even dispatched their communique to church congregations to pray for the staged captured captain. Do Not be Fooled!
It has been determined by our psychology team that the captured Captain may be released today and associated with the resurrection of Jesus Christ on this day, probably around dinner time.
The Psyche Alert System will keep you informed of the Psyche operations being played on you. This is a very sophisticated operation. Please take all precautions and protect yourselves.
This is not a test.
--------------------------------------------------------------------------
Learn the 7TH Amendment maggot!
Red Beckman - Fully Informed Jury
http://video.google.com/videoplay?docid=7385583011526915030&hl=en
Michael, you definitely have a point about the false-flag psy-ops. Make sure you post the link to the memos you cited.
Meanwhile here's what the New York Pravda has to say:
U.S. Captain Held by Pirates Is Rescued
http://www.nytimes.com/2009/04/13/world/africa/13pirates.html?_r=1&hp
Touché.
OT news:
http://news.yahoo.com/s/ap/20090412/ap_on_re_af/piracy
Three pirates dead, fourth captured. Captain OK. Finished.
linked asks - (re: stimulus money)" Where is that money being spent and has it arrived in official bank accounts..."
http://projects.nytimes.com/creditcrisis/recipients/table?ref=business
-not sure this specifically answers your question, but it's interesting in its detail, nonetheless.
also, see this: http://www.recovery.gov/
It has been determined by our psychology team that the captured Captain may be released today and associated with the resurrection of Jesus Christ on this day, probably around dinner time.
Ken Cooper, if you bring back the ignore function, I'll stop halo-izing you.
Michael, congrats. You are no worse than Jas Jain.
Michael,
Why don't you go to Somalia, set up a government?
Premature tax hikes ruined Japan's stimulus plans http://www.msnbc.msn.com/id/30162245/
Right or wrong, the same reasoning will be used to explain the failure this time in America
A guy at Harvard telling us that he has a better grasp on the future.
___________________________________________________
Are Companies Protecting the Wrong R&D Investments? (http://www.bloomberg.com/apps/harvardbusiness?sid=H7a2334c02331777a7350c...)
07:54 PM Wednesday April 08, 2009
By Scott Anthony
The good news? Despite today's tough times, many firms are demonstrating their commitment to innovation by fiercely protecting Research & Development budgets. The bad news? The siege-like mentality driving the decision might inhibit the effectiveness of R&D investments.
Innovation has never been more important. Hyper-competition coupled with ever-accelerating technological improvements means competitive advantage that took years to build can disappear in the blink of an eye. Companies that stop innovating to "ride out the storm" are sowing the seeds of their own destruction.
I think that some people have to look at themselves in the mirror.
__________________________________________________
How Sudden Failures Happen Gradually (http://www.bloomberg.com/apps/harvardbusiness?sid=Hdc57d4aee96c9d757af6c...)
08:53 PM Thursday April 09, 2009
By Susan Cramm
The book Mistakes Were Made (But Not by Me) discusses the psychological need feel competent - even when evidence to the contrary abounds. The AIG debacle revealed a classic illustration of this in the denial of responsibility by ex-CEO Maurice Greenberg. He said, "I don't feel any responsibility at all...how can I be responsible for something that happened when I'm not there?"
Let's get real. Mr. Greenberg worked at AIG for 38 years and left less than 4 years ago. He hired the people currently in charge and "was behind the expansion push that included creating the financial productions unit that nearly sand the firm after he left in 2005." With due respect to the octogenarian, is this any way for a grown up to behave?
EHP, you have to hike taxes to show your debtholders that you are following up printing with the measures of austerity necessary to protect their investment. We're walking the same fine line as well, though I think we have more leeway given that we have the reserve currency with a bit more in the way of sticking power.
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http://www.afterthecrash.net - After the Crash, a blog shared by the CR Commenting Community. Hoopajoop on over.
Hoopajoops LTD,
Nothing short of a jubilee will cut it..
Michael is worse than Jas Jain because Michael's shit is varied enough that I accidentally read some of it before skipping it.
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http://www.afterthecrash.net - After the Crash, a blog shared by the CR Commenting Community. Hoopajoop on over.
Lucifer, if by jubilee you mean a national default, that has a number of extremely unpleasant consequences attached. You want your national debt to remain credible to a certain point not only because you want people to be interested in loaning to you in the future, but also because tanking your debt could wreak some serious havok with existing stakeholders. Even the perception of such a possibility will tank it on the secondary market, which could take out various interests which do not have enough cash on hand to ride it out and are forced to sell into the panic.
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http://www.afterthecrash.net - After the Crash, a blog shared by the CR Commenting Community. Hoopajoop on over.
The Triumph of the Banking Oligarchs continues ( and this will be Obama's nemesis no matter his other policy decsion which I mostly agree with )
The Quiet Coup
http://bit.ly/9QobY
The Big Takeover
http://bit.ly/rpHLw
Some observations....
In 1930's the US Banking Oligarchs did not make 40% of domestic corporate profits
In 1930's financial oligarchy did not have the power to block essential reform
In 1930's the US Banking Oligarchs were far from effectively capturing our government like they have today under Bush and now Obama
US Banking Oligarchs to Obama
Larry Summers = OK we own him
Tim Geithner = OK we own him
Ben Benanke - OK we own him
Sheila Bair = OK we own her
Volcker = not OK we don't own him so put him out to pasture because he is a proponent of essential reform needed to break the financial oligarchy.
Remember back in early 1980's the USA was just beginning to be a debtor nation with assclown Reagan.
Well now the debt-drowned United States debt is already 350 percent of G.D.P and rising fast !
note: Iceland's de facto bankruptcy-its currency (the krona) is kaput, its debt is 850 percent of G.D.P., its people are hoarding food and cash and blowing up their new Range Rovers for the insurance-resulted from a stunning collective madness.
Unless Obama steps up to the plate to break the financial oligarchy that is blocking essential reform 98% of Americans had better get a new dream and fast !
I am talking about an international.. global jubilee.
//Lucifer, if by jubilee you mean a national default, that has a number of extremely unpleasant consequences attached.//
NYT says finance jobs are out, government jobs are in
Lucifer, given that almost all money is debt, you're advocating the sudden abolishment of all money everywhere. Everyone's bank accounts go to zero, everyone's payables to their employees zero out, 401k's are eliminated, insurance company claims are canceled, annuities axed, the bond market wiped out totally... such an event would be excellent for people with hard assets, or with guns, or with a lot of land.
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http://www.afterthecrash.net - After the Crash, a blog shared by the CR Commenting Community. Hoopajoop on over.
Top 10 signs that you live in a banana republic - with a tribute to Jas and dopes.
http://thebarricadeblog.com/2009/04/11/the-top-10-signs-you-are-living-i...
km4,
The real question is.. will our financial oligarchs give away their power or be executed. I cannot see another option.
EHP, I generally assume the opposite of whatever trend the NYT is calling... or I try to pretend like I'm reading a headline from 4 months ago and then try to predict what would have happened in the intervening time to try to guess at what is actually happening today. The media in this country is too conservative, and only calls things after they've happened and finished.
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http://www.afterthecrash.net - After the Crash, a blog shared by the CR Commenting Community. Hoopajoop on over.
Lucifer, if you think a crisis such as this results in the power of oligarchs diminishing, then you haven't paid attention to history.
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http://www.afterthecrash.net - After the Crash, a blog shared by the CR Commenting Community. Hoopajoop on over.
I read Michael's shit like a car crash - know it's going to be awful, but can't seem to not look. I hate myself for it.
Hmm... I never said that you had to declare a global jubilee before putting another system to cover it... Do you think I am that naive.. maybe I should have been more explicit!
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Lucifer, given that almost all money is debt, you're advocating the sudden abolishment of all money everywhere.
Lucifer, it doesn't sound like you've got a cohesive plan there.
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http://www.afterthecrash.net - After the Crash, a blog shared by the CR Commenting Community. Hoopajoop on over.
Oh.. but I have.. oligarchs die or get killed to be replaced by newer ones.
PS- We have never been is a situation like the one we have right now. Old rules work only as long as the old system is functional.. the old system died decades ago. We are still not wiling to accept it! We have created a patchwork to cover that corpse, but it has come apart..
//Lucifer, if you think a crisis such as this results in the power of oligarchs diminishing, then you haven't paid attention to history.//
So what we need, lucifer, I think, is a partial jubilee. An "emancipation of the people." This means that all debt whose ultimate creditor is a non-natural-person is extinguished. Therefore if a bank holds dollars (debt) in an account for me (debt - held ultimately by natural person) I think that lets you save money, in the hands of the people at least.
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http://www.afterthecrash.net - After the Crash, a blog shared by the CR Commenting Community. Hoopajoop on over.
The real question is.. will our financial oligarchs give away their power or be executed. I cannot see another option.
It is sentiment like this that led Russia to 1917. Fortunately, in the modern day US this sentiment is not backed by any political power
PS- We have never been is a situation like the one we have right now.
We haven't, but tons of countries have. Go to ferfal.blogspot.com and check out that guy's blog to see what is in store for us. We'll be Argentina soon enough.
Did you know that "Rich as an Argentinian" used to be a common expression?
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http://www.afterthecrash.net - After the Crash, a blog shared by the CR Commenting Community. Hoopajoop on over.
Hoopajoops LTD,
maybe you have not read some of my previous posts.. essentially I am suggesting that we create an average middle class living standard as the basic living standard, pay people to spend- with the caveat that the basic money cannot be used for investment or carried over to the next year.
If you do not have a job.. you will just spend the money you get each month. If you have a job you can spend both the basic amount as well as what you earn. Any money earned through a job can be used as the person pleases.
Fortunately, in the modern day US this sentiment is not backed by any political power
Doesn't need to, especially given the lowered organizational threshold realized by the availability of the internet.
See:
http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Leaderless_resistance
http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Asymmetric_warfare
Anonymous doesn't forgive.
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http://www.afterthecrash.net - After the Crash, a blog shared by the CR Commenting Community. Hoopajoop on over.
That is a reasonable start.
//So what we need, lucifer, I think, is a partial jubilee. An "emancipation of the people." This means that all debt whose ultimate creditor is a non-natural-person is extinguished. Therefore if a bank holds dollars (debt) in an account for me (debt - held ultimately by natural person) I think that lets you save money, in the hands of the people at least.//
I read Michael's shit like a car crash - know it's going to be awful, but can't seem to not look. I hate myself for it.
- the terrorists have won.
Re jubilee - I've been long advocating a one time issuance of $10,000 to every taxpayer.
Go to the root of the problem without creating long-term inflationary expectations
Why I see I see no hopeful glimmers:
Bank CRE portfolios are ½ junk rated
http://www.calculatedriskblog.com/2009/04/corporate-credit-union-portfol...
CRE loans are selling for 40-50% off.
http://4.bp.blogspot.com/_FM71j6-VkNE/SdjfDyJ626I/AAAAAAAABsg/SahJFDDOPW...
Massive wave of delayed foreclosures imminent.
http://www.fieldcheckgroup.com/2009/04/07/4-7-ca-foreclosures-about-to-s...
Time (partners with CNN) says the banking crisis is over (contrary indicator).
http://www.time.com/time/business/article/0,8599,1890560,00.html
Bullshit is widely called on Time. Maybe no better than here:
http://zerohedge.blogspot.com/2009/04/imminent-disinformation-schism.html
Federal tax receipts off 28% YOY as budget deficit explodes.
"During the first five months of fiscal 2009, which began Oct. 1, the country's deficit swelled to a record $764.5 billion for the period, compared with a $265 billion shortfall during the same period a year earlier. "
"Corporate tax receipts totaled $52.8 billion through February, down from $96.9 billion in the first five months of fiscal 2008, the Treasury said. Individual income tax collections were down 13 percent so far this fiscal year, totaling $388.5 billion through February compared with $446.9 billion in the year-earlier period."
http://www.bloomberg.com/apps/news?pid=newsarchive&sid=a4wdOOqUkWQ8
Russell 2000 has a 35 twelve month trailing PE.
http://online.wsj.com/mdc/public/page/2_3021-peyield.html
Last call for an IPO.
http://www.bloomberg.com/apps/news?pid=20601087&sid=ahmVhX5NFuS4&refer=home
stress tests a stall tactic.
http://finance.yahoo.com/tech-ticker/article/225897/Geithners-Stress-Tes...
NO big money bought the WFC Easter rally. None. $680 million flowed out of JPM, BAC, and GS on Thursday.
http://content.screencast.com/users/Triptico/folders/Default/media/3e798...
U-6 unemployment change rate still accelerating into J curve. 600,000+ first time unemployment claims per week.
http://energyecon.blogspot.com/2009/04/u-6-year-over-year-changes-contin...
Treasury has to roll over $1.4 T in debt between April and June.
http://energyecon.blogspot.com/2009/04/treasury-marketable-debt-maturity...
Budget deficit for 2009 currently estimated at $1.5T (see above blooomberg link).
Fed purchasing Treasuries on the open market, blatantly monetizing debt.
http://www.bloomberg.com/apps/news?pid=20601087&sid=aEFIWsIe24eA&refer=w...
Trade deficit drops sharply to nine year low showing the US consumer is truly tapped out.
http://www.bloomberg.com/apps/news?pid=newsarchive&sid=ao3vrz3IKvc8
Half of nation's hospitals running losses
http://www.latimes.com/business/la-fi-hospitals2-2009mar02,0,3182541.story
Did I miss something? Like CDS time bombs, insurance companies Tarped, unfunded pensions, interest rate swaps, berkshire downgraded, ...
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Neither was the one in 1917.. It was just that the government was bankrupt and the system collapsed. Remember that the effects of russian involvement in ww1 caused the crisis.
//Fortunately, in the modern day US this sentiment is not backed by any political power//
MrM I think that $40,000 is a more reasonable sum for those older than 16 but younger than 30, and those older than 55, provided that this amount is deducted from their estate should they die within 5 years of the date of grant.
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http://www.afterthecrash.net - After the Crash, a blog shared by the CR Commenting Community. Hoopajoop on over.
Hoopajoops LTD,
There is a difference between an infected finger, toe and generalized sepsis.
//We haven't, but tons of countries have. Go to ferfal.blogspot.com and check out that guy's blog to see what is in store for us. We'll be Argentina soon enough.//
These age groupings, by the way, compensate the young for the educational debt slavery we've saddled them with, and it restores part of the lost 401k to our seniors, who are not able to earn it back nor would it be as efficient for us to finance their retirement by means of public social services.
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http://www.afterthecrash.net - After the Crash, a blog shared by the CR Commenting Community. Hoopajoop on over.
Lucifer, you've just uttered a meaningless statement.
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http://www.afterthecrash.net - After the Crash, a blog shared by the CR Commenting Community. Hoopajoop on over.
Hoopajoops LTD - You can run "leaderless resistance" once it is started, but you cannot start real resistance without some kind of a center or focused power. Just ask people who really tried, for example Chinese or Soviet dissidents
??
/Lucifer, you've just uttered a meaningless statement./
MrM:
I don't know, this one got itself started with absolutely no center or focused power to begin with, other than a large bulletin board with lots of people reading it.
http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Project_chanology
If you mean that it must originate through a widely disseminated and effective call to arms directed at parties who (i) would be inclined to act and (ii) have the individual initiative to do so without direction, then I totally agree.
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http://www.afterthecrash.net - After the Crash, a blog shared by the CR Commenting Community. Hoopajoop on over.
Neither was the one in 1917..
Lenin had been actively running his party since early 1900s. By 1917 the Bolsheviks were a very well organized, disciplined and powerful political force with significant influence in the Army and Navy and presence in many major cities.
To straighten out this country, several things may be necessary:
1) end the influence of lobbyists
2) end the influence of not just the bankers, but all the multi-national corporations
3) get progressive tax laws into effect -- in the 1950s, the rate was as high as 90%, yet there was prosperity
4) return to the old SS/FICA rates
5) tax corporate profits appropriately
6) end the silly delusion that wealth trickles down -- Joe6pack has been taken for a ride
7) improve the social safety net
Circumstances create leaders out of people once things start picking up speed.
//Hoopajoops LTD - You can run "leaderless resistance" once it is started, but you cannot start real resistance without some kind of a center or focused power. Just ask people who really tried, for example Chinese or Soviet dissidents//
U.S. Navy rescues captain, kills Somali pirates
http://www.reuters.com/article/topNews/idUSTRE53A1LP20090412
Hmm.. Nikkei's website not available at the moment. Don't know what it means.
http://www.nni.nikkei.co.jp
So why 1917? why not 1914, 1915 or 1916?
//Lenin had been actively running his party since early 1900s. By 1917 the Bolsheviks were a very well organized, disciplined and powerful political force with significant influence in the Army and Navy and presence in many major cities.//
Lucifer, I'm sorry, but you seem too out of it to engage in meaningful discussion with me.
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http://www.afterthecrash.net - After the Crash, a blog shared by the CR Commenting Community. Hoopajoop on over.
Not bad rept--now how do you propose to get it passed?
It will happen.. but it won't occur through pleasant means.. and it will take time..
//To straighten out this country, several things may be necessary:
1) end the influence of lobbyists
2) end the influence of not just the bankers, but all the multi-national corporations
3) get progressive tax laws into effect -- in the 1950s, the rate was as high as 90%, yet there was prosperity
4) return to the old SS/FICA rates
5) tax corporate profits appropriately
6) end the silly delusion that wealth trickles down -- Joe6pack has been taken for a ride
7) improve the social safety net//
I think the real issue is that you think the old way can be salvaged and patched. I think that it cannot be salvaged or patched, and continuing to pretend that this charade can go on is going to cause more problems.
//Lucifer, I'm sorry, but you seem too out of it to engage in meaningful discussion with me.//
Hoopajoops - I agree that one can organize mass movements over the Internet, but only so long as the government or power that be do not actively try to suppress it. The original point was about forceful taking power from the oligarchs, so resistant is too be expected.
I think the real issue is that you think the old way can be salvaged and patched. I think that it cannot be salvaged or patched, and continuing to pretend that this charade can go on is going to cause more problems.
No, dude, that's not the "real issue." The real issue has more to do with you, and your ability to respond meaningfully and with insight.
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http://www.afterthecrash.net - After the Crash, a blog shared by the CR Commenting Community. Hoopajoop on over.
is hoocoodanode lagging like SHIT when trying to check for new comments for anyone else
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http://www.afterthecrash.net - After the Crash, a blog shared by the CR Commenting Community. Hoopajoop on over.
Madoff feeder funds reaped big fees (http://www.marketwatch.com/news/story/Madoff-feeder-funds-reaped-huge/story.aspx?guid={F55AB6E7-29E2-4E38-A4A4-41341AB636F9})
By MarketWatch
Last update: 1:37 p.m. EDT April 11, 2009
Comments: 92
SAN FRANCISCO (MarketWatch) -- Firms that fed client money to Bernard Madoff likely took in at least $790 million in fees over the years, said the Wall Street Journal Saturday.
The newspaper said it had reviewed lawsuits and documents that had emerged after the New York investment manager was arrested nearly four months ago. Madoff pled guilty last month to multiple criminal charges related to a massive Ponzi scheme that he ran for at least a decade.
reptillian - you totally nailed the first seven planks in the progressive agenda. With these in mind, we can clearly see what we are up against.
the rate was as high as 90%
C'mon, nobody paid anywhere close to that rate.
-----
"Hope for the best, prepare for the worst"
"Not bad rept--now how do you propose to get it passed?"
Right now I'm cynical. It may fall to the army to fix things. Look at the aerial maps of D.C. and New York. It wouldn't be difficult to sieze and hold them. The army, enlisted and officer, isn't drawn from the Ivy League or the wealthy. Will the elected people wake up before the army wakes up? I don't know.
It is often hard to read the subtext of what I am implying.
Example- When I said that an infected finger or toe was different from sepsis, I was implying that you (global economy) can survive an infected finger and toe (a few isolated economic crises) without antibiotics (old ways), but generalized sepsis (simultaneous worldwide depression) will kill you without antibiotics (radical change).
I was also implying that small infections (smaller crises) are often ignored because they heal without treatment, though often with scars. However widespread infections require aggressive and often very specific treatment.
//No, dude, that's not the "real issue." The real issue has more to do with you, and your ability to respond meaningfully and with insight.//
Nice compilation Swamp Otis. Hard to refute. Too bad only a very few dig deep enough to understand the tightrope this nation is walking.
The USA is like a going to a Sunday matinee. You walk out of the theater blinking into the sunlight still lost in the fantasy the movie and darkened building created.
OT (meaning "ON TOPIC" in this case):
It hopes to begin construction on office, retail, hotel and residential buildings in the fall of 2010
We definitely need more of these things -- NOT! Perhaps this bust will permanently end the idea of "if you build it they will come".
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"Hope for the best, prepare for the worst"
Have you read about Saint Reagan.. and his epiphany about the role and scope of government involvement in the economy.
//C'mon, nobody paid anywhere close to that rate.//
So why 1917? why not 1914, 1915 or 1916?
Longer discussion, but the short answer is two-fold
- The Russian absolutist monarchy was too much of a burden and anachronism in the emerging capitalist economy, so there were many parties, covering wide ranges of the political spectrum, driving for political changes. By 1917 the monarchy became too weak to support itself, the economy was falling apart. The February 1917 revolution gave freedom to many political parties, including the Bolsheviks, which were allowed to gain much strength, running on a very populist platform, promising everything to everyone.
- There was too much patriotism in 1914, but by 1917 the war became deeply unpopular among both civilians and the army. However, only the Bolsheviks were calling to withdraw Russia from WW1, which made them quite popular in the army.
@ Lucifer (member) wrote on Sun, 04/12/2009 - 2:58pm.
The real question is.. will our financial oligarchs give away their power or be executed. I cannot see another option.
Obama had better be using the velvet glove now and if that does not work then take a big stick like FDR did for banking reform.
Obama is betting he can this pull off with current bullshit financial policy of Summers, Geithner, Benanke
Let's see and stay tuned but I'm shorting Obama here and if/when the backlash comes from middle class America is he will be toast !
Ya.. that was what broke the camel's back!
// There was too much patriotism in 1914, but by 1917 the war became deeply unpopular among both civilians and the army. However, only the Bolsheviks were calling to withdraw Russia from WW1, which made them quite popular in the army.//
km4,
I do not think that I am the only one to say this.. but it is not inconcievable that BO could be the last president of our current republic. I hope that I am wrong..
Lucifer yes agree and this has been discussed here on CR and other 'in the know' blogs that attract smart people 
WHOA- check out the FT today:
AIG declines to participate in derivatives overhaul
http://www.ft.com/cms/s/0/cb2ddafc-278c-11de-9b77-00144feabdc0.html?ncli...
even scarier:
TARP investigator lookin for book cookin by banks - and expectin' to find some:
http://www.ft.com/cms/s/0/cb2ddafc-278c-11de-9b77-00144feabdc0.html?ncli...
"I hope we don't find a single bank that's cooked their books to try to get money but I don't think that's going to be the case," said Mr Barofsky, who has been dubbed the "Tarp cop".
Once again, my investor confidence cup runneth over
C'mon, nobody paid anywhere close to that rate.
- perhaps not, but it was on the books. As per wiki, the top rate reached 94% during WWII, and remained at 91% until 1961.
http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Income_tax_in_the_United_States#History_of_...
Lucifer: "The big leaps in human knowledge or creativity do not come from clever people who spend their time climbing the system. The big leaps always come from people who think differently.. the ones who see the world differently from the "consensus""
Let me guess-is it you? You sound bitter--who are the people outside the system? Unknown and famous unis are both in the system.
km4,
Yes.. I have seen similar fears on similar blogs.. I hope that BO becomes an updated version of FDR, but I am afraid that he will be remembered as the updated version of HH.
If he is HH v2.0, the republic might have to be rebooted.
Right, lucifer, but "alluding" to stuff without actually saying it is a) not actually saying what you mean and b) typically used to "fake it" when knowledge on a subject is a little hazy. A person reading your stuff will automatically fill in what correct information you left out, either because you're being "artsy," or, more likely, because you can't say it yourself for whatever reason.
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http://www.afterthecrash.net - After the Crash, a blog shared by the CR Commenting Community. Hoopajoop on over.
"the rate was as high as 90%
C'mon, nobody paid anywhere close to that rate."
Sure. There have alway been deductions, loopholes.
Even if no one paid that rate, they may have paid more than they're paying now.
In those days, doctors might complain that the tax rate was so high that they could only afford to work 20 hrs/week. Nevertheless, they were able to optimize their income/taxation. A shortage of doctors? So what! Train more doctors! Some people are more interested in practicing medicine than the amount they might make, and those may well be better doctors. The same can be said for some captain of industry: he/she might only make 5 times the amount of an assembly line worker, but to some there may be more prestige in being able to make a living with his/her mind rather than with his/her hands. You see, when the focus is on income alone, all other values disappear.
@linked
"The USA is like a going to a Sunday matinee. You walk out of the theater blinking into the sunlight still lost in the fantasy the movie and darkened building created."
America was sitting in a theater, watching the previews put on them with extra escapes from big orange explosions, encouraged intermittently to go to the snack bar for soda, cigarettes, and poison snacks. When it was time for the show to begin, the curtain lifted, revealing a wall of guns and cameras aimed right at their fat faces.
\\\\\\\\\\\\\\\\\\\\\\\\\\\\||||||||||||||||||||||||||//////////////////////////
I could care less.. What bothers me about the current system is that it wastes talent, suppresses innovation and rewards mediocrity. Science has become the new catholic church.. It cannot end well.
//Let me guess-is it you? You sound bitter--who are the people outside the system? Unknown and famous unis are both in the system.//
Hoopajoops LTD,
Given my background, many of my examples are based on physiology, pathology, pharmacology and biology. Living and evolving systems have much in common with economic systems.
Even the amount of fraud, bullshit, group think, fadism and manipulation in medical/biological research is not unlike economics.
"There was too much patriotism in 1914, but by 1917 the war became deeply unpopular among both civilians and the army. However, only the Bolsheviks were calling to withdraw Russia from WW1, which made them quite popular in the army."
It wasn't just the war that made Bolsheviks popular. It was the promise to allocate land to poor farmers, the reform that was promised & ignored by Czar & government. They also promised to represent factory workers in the government, the huge chunk population that had zero say in a direction the country was going.
alo @ 6:49 - your second link pointed to the same AIG article instead of the TARP one.
Here is the correct link http://www.ft.com/cms/s/0/163c85c4-2789-11de-9b77-00144feabdc0.html
I still grant myself a certain amount of illusion. I have spent too many nights awake to not realize the fears at 3am are greatly reduced when dawn breaks.
Life is all about perspective.
It wasn't the war that made Bolsheviks popular. It was the promise to allocate land to poor farmers, the reform that was promised & ignored by Czar & government. They also promised to represent factory workers in the government, the huge chunk population that had zero say in a direction the country was going.
It is correct, and it is what I said in my original comment - the Bolsheviks ran a heavily populist campaign, promising everything to everybody. Their promise to return the army back home resonated deeply with the soldiers. Moreover, since most of them were peasants, it played well with the promise of land on their return.
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Sholem Aleichem the Jewish Will Rogers:
"Life is a dream for the wise, a game for the fool, a comedy for the rich, a tragedy for the poor."
And, "No matter how bad things get, you got to go on living, even if it kills you."
The lowest bid wins.
Would be great if Guam wins this dubious honor.
what is it about democratic Presidents. One squanders everything on a blow job and the other squanders it for the whores on Wall Street.
I can't believe that I am the only previously ardent supporter of him has tuned him out.
I work in downtown DC near Franklin Park on K Street, and I take the commuter bus in from Columbia, Maryland. After dropping me off on K Street, the bus heads in a general southeast direction before making its last stop near the Washington Navy Yard.
I take the first bus down from Columbia in the morning and it usually drops me off at work around 6:30 AM. However, a couple weeks ago, I overslept on the bus big time --- first time I've done it since I started working downtown 3 years ago. When I woke up, I had no idea where the hell I was. Turns out I was at 3rd and M streets SE, near the Navy Yard metro station, in the area mentioned for this article.
In my opinion, the area can best be described as surreal. You have these brand new 12-story office buildings scattered about. If there isn't an office building on a lot, then there's nothing on that lot. Looking down a crossing street (I think it was New Jersey Avenue) I could see a giant building off in the distance, on the water, that might have been used as an old warehouse. And perhaps it seemed a bit more surreal considering it was 6:45 AM, the sun was about to rise, and all of these white-collar professionals were piling out of the Navy Yard metro station to go to work at one of these scattered office buildings.
I wondered what kind of companies were placed down here, so after I made it to work, I typed "300 M Street SE" into Google to see what I can find. The office building at this particular address is apparently filled with various defense contractors. I suppose there's quite a few law firms down here too, but they're everywhere in DC.
I went to a Nationals game early last year (either April or May) for a game against the Mets. After getting off the Metro, there was a fence up on each side of the street with advertising for various buildings that were being constructed. Looks like some of these buildings were finished while others never got going.
I am always shocked when people talk about DC as a good place to live. Dc, MD , and NOVa are in my top worst places to live. I have lived everywhere up the east coast, SD, WI, IL, and AZ. DC = terrible traffic, rude people, and crazy expensive. The one good thing it does have is good high paying jobs. People hate dc so much that they move out to WV and take a 1.5 hr train ride in just to get away from this place. I think, for the most part, people that like DC either don't know any better or come from money. DC is nice if you can afford a 2 million dollar house.
I still live here only because I like my job.
Diamond City Resident : Lance. Is that you?
"Upper Norhwest Washington DC is one of the nicest places in the country to live or to visit."
Seriously, anything within 50 miles of DC sucks almighty gobs of ass. I've lived in far nicer places, climate-wise, architrutral-wise (brick-face front, siding back and sides scream half-assed from a mile awful), intelectual-wise*, etc.
* I've met some of the most-self-grandizing dumb-asses around DC. They couldn't cut the mustard elseware, by a long shot, but they are part of the old-boys-network in the DC area.
dead thread? heh, what the hell...
you're slipping CR, the first quote mentions living in a ghost town and no one mentions the song by The Specials 'Ghost Town'?
the opening of the video meshes quite nicely with the DC CRE angle - http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=RZ2oXzrnti4
'Are there enough embassies and legations to preserve the city from RE devaluation? Permit me to doubt it.'
Absolutely - in the broader scheme, that aspect of DC is not what one considers part of the real estate market.
But what it does mean is that as long as DC remains a world capital, you will have a set of neighborhoods that don't care about the 'market' - and those neighborhoods are likely to remain as nicely tree lined, filled with interesting people, surrounded by the sort of security that most gated communities would envy. With demographics matched by few other areas in the entire world, though without the extremes of wealth that one would find in cities like Paris or NYC or London.
Some of those areas along Rock Creek Park are the equal to what NYC buildings facing Central Park are - a limited market which does not play by market rules.
But you have to realize - those areas are carefully cut off from the rest of DC in a number of subtle ways, which has been true since the area was part of Georgetown - which predates DC by decades.
I could have talked about Alexandria much the same way, without the embassies, of course.
And in a global economic crisis, I don't expect any market to be immune - but I still expect the embassy lifestyle to pretty much continue in its untroubled state for the foreseeable future. Which supports a minor service industry in and of itself, by the way.
i avoid the burbs at all costs. i avoid other parts of the city at all costs. luckily NW DC is pretty big. i live in an absolutely drop dead gorgeous neighborhood with top flight Public Schools (yes they do exist here!), parks, community centers, educated and friendly neighbors, parks, little traffic, world class hospitals, museums, galleries etc etc.
VA and MD? fuggedabouit
NE DC? same. SE, SW for sure.
in fact, i live just off of one of the most exclusive streets in the entire city with the DuPont heirs, founders of Nextel, and others. And that street has nearly 75% of its houses for sale in the $3MM-7MM range, all just sitting there.
while the 4/2 "Starter" homes move in week around $700k.
DC is interesting. Ive been to 44 countries on 4 continents and can truly say there there are parts of the DC Area (5-10%) that are world class. However, 90-95% of it is a hole - no better - or really worse than most of the US.
If you live in the 90% hole area, you think its a hole - if you live in the 10% world class area - you think its world class.
Nope - I am not Lance. I think you're referring to a poster on NoVa Bubblemeter though...I read that blog too.
I'm merely an armchair economist/housing nut who reads the MRIS and Cas Shiller numbers who's been waiting for my chance to buy up something on the cheap. It's taken me sitting on the sidelines (since to 2002!) to finally see some hope for affordability.
Are you in 22201? I mainly farm 20001, 20002, 20024 and 20003 for prospective deals. Anyway, since this is anonymous and in the hope of not sounding too pompous - yes, I come from money and my family owns investment properties on the Hill, which slants my bias toward disagreeing with posters arguing that DC sucks.
Ghetto? Yes. Crime? Yes. A great up and coming city, relatively immune (job wise) to a recession with fun bars and access to beaches and mountains within 2 hours drive? Yes.
I guess those buildings weren't going to be "green" enough.
- Nemo