They were probably thinking, wow, is it 2006 already?
- Nemo
from the end of the dead thread:
Why I see I see no hopeful glimmers:
Bank CRE portfolios are ½ junk rated
http://www.calculatedriskblog.com/2009/04/corporate-credit-union-portfol...
CRE loans are selling for 40-50% off.
http://4.bp.blogspot.com/_FM71j6-VkNE/SdjfDyJ626I/AAAAAAAABsg/SahJFDDOPW...
Massive wave of delayed foreclosures imminent.
http://www.fieldcheckgroup.com/2009/04/07/4-7-ca-foreclosures-about-to-s...
Time (partners with CNN) says the banking crisis is over (contrary indicator).
http://www.time.com/time/business/article/0,8599,1890560,00.html
Bullshit is widely called on Time. Maybe no better than here:
http://zerohedge.blogspot.com/2009/04/imminent-disinformation-schism.html
Federal tax receipts off 28% YOY as budget deficit explodes.
"During the first five months of fiscal 2009, which began Oct. 1, the country's deficit swelled to a record $764.5 billion for the period, compared with a $265 billion shortfall during the same period a year earlier. "
"Corporate tax receipts totaled $52.8 billion through February, down from $96.9 billion in the first five months of fiscal 2008, the Treasury said. Individual income tax collections were down 13 percent so far this fiscal year, totaling $388.5 billion through February compared with $446.9 billion in the year-earlier period."
http://www.bloomberg.com/apps/news?pid=newsarchive&sid=a4wdOOqUkWQ8
S&P 500: "First quarter ever of negative earnings"
http://www.calculatedriskblog.com/2009/02/s-first-quarter-ever-of-negati...
Russell 2000 has a 35 twelve month trailing PE.
http://online.wsj.com/mdc/public/page/2_3021-peyield.html
Last call for an IPO.
http://www.bloomberg.com/apps/news?pid=20601087&sid=ahmVhX5NFuS4&refer=home
stress tests a stall tactic.
http://finance.yahoo.com/tech-ticker/article/225897/Geithners-Stress-Tes...
NO big money bought the WFC Easter rally. None. $680 million flowed out of JPM, BAC, and GS on Thursday.
http://content.screencast.com/users/Triptico/folders/Default/media/3e798...
U-6 unemployment change rate still accelerating into J curve. 600,000+ first time unemployment claims per week.
http://energyecon.blogspot.com/2009/04/u-6-year-over-year-changes-contin...
Treasury has to roll over $1.4 T in debt between April and June.
http://energyecon.blogspot.com/2009/04/treasury-marketable-debt-maturity...
Budget deficit for 2009 currently estimated at $1.5T (see above blooomberg link).
Fed purchasing Treasuries on the open market, blatantly monetizing debt.
http://www.bloomberg.com/apps/news?pid=20601087&sid=aEFIWsIe24eA&refer=w...
Global trade way down.
http://www.investmenttools.com/futures/bdi_baltic_dry_index.htm
Trade deficit drops sharply to nine year low showing the US consumer is truly tapped out.
http://www.bloomberg.com/apps/news?pid=newsarchive&sid=ao3vrz3IKvc8
Half of nation's hospitals running losses
http://www.latimes.com/business/la-fi-hospitals2-2009mar02,0,3182541.story
Did I miss something? Like CDS time bombs, insurance companies Tarped, unfunded pensions, interest rate swaps, berkshire downgraded, ...
.
.
.
energyecon (member) wrote on Sun, 04/12/2009 - 4:14pm.
Swamp Otis,
Here is one more item for the hit parade:
G-7 Industrial Production Crashing
http://jessescrossroadscafe.blogspot.com/2009/04/g7-industrial-productio...
.
.
.
Firlight2012 (member) wrote on Sun, 04/12/2009 - 4:14pm.
swamp otis
State budget deficits?
http://www.cbpp.org/cms/?fa=view&id=711
\\\\\\\\\\\\\\\\\\\\\\\\\\\\||||||||||||||||||||||||||//////////////////////////
Why is Krugman on a roll? Curious minds want to know!
_____________________________________________
Krugman: Stress Tests "Self-Esteem" Class That No One Fails (http://www.huffingtonpost.com/2009/04/12/krugman-on-stress-tests-s_n_185...)
the banking industry suffering from a crisis in confidence as much as liquidity, Paul Krugman says the Treasury Department will likely sugarcoat the stress test it is applying to the banks so that all of them are deemed solvent.
"This stress test, I have to say, it is sounding like a class of self-esteem: 'You are all wonderful, each in your own way,'" said the Nobel Prize winning economist. "I don't think they are going to let anybody fail."
Appearing on ABC's This Week, Krugman was prompted by a remark from host George Stephanopoulos, who noted that the political (and actual) capital being afforded to the Obama administration was running out.
The March 2009 price was a distressed sale, and is half off the 2003 price.
The key word is distressed - the banks do not have to use these prices for estimating recovery on similar mortgages on their books. No more that mark-to-market populism! We can safely go back to relying on the word of bankers as to how much their products are worth. /sarcasm off
The mark-to-model fairy will eliminate your losses.
Personally, I am glad to see housing prices return to affordability for first-time home buyers. I am sure there are many in the US who welcome this development, namely young families just starting out, and patient renters, who have been saving their money and biding their time. For every loser in this situation, there is also a winner. Banks be damned.
Swamp Otis,
Here is one more item for the hit parade:
G-7 Industrial Production Crashing
http://jessescrossroadscafe.blogspot.com/2009/04/g7-industrial-productio...
Money Magazine Forecast (by state/city) of Home Prices
No. We aint done dropping yet.
How about for the previous thread "Sock Puppets run amok"
http://afterthecrash.net - Home of the Doomer Story Portal and Other Stuff
Appears the Fed has successfully controlled inflation.
"Way to go Volky."
energyecon y firlight2012,
thanks for the good ones, i'll add them to my collection.
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Where is my cut of the TARP?
Just heard on the radio: Commisioner of the IRS will work with you. Don't disappear. Details on the next "Morning Edition" of NPR.
Are they desperate yet?
reptillian, was that in the hour news or what?
-------
http://www.afterthecrash.net - After the Crash, a blog shared by the CR Commenting Community. Hoopajoop on over.
"reptillian, was that in the hour news or what?"
I dunno. It was at about xx:45, just now. Now they have mentioned immortality, wise uses of taxpayer money. What is going on? It is on an NPR station in Phoenix -- KJZZ?
Immortality, huh? I wonder if any taxpayer money is going to SENS research or other similar research directed towards eliminating the mammalian process of aging/senescence. A good way to spend it, by my estimation.
-------
http://www.afterthecrash.net - After the Crash, a blog shared by the CR Commenting Community. Hoopajoop on over.
A good way to spend it, by my estimation.
-Hoopy, I doubt you could handle living beyond 300 or 400 years old, no matter what shape you're in. 
I am tuning in to that next "Morning Edition," holding my tax return until I get the news.
Bribe: Quid pro quo above the table, money under
Campaign Contribution: Quid pro quo under the table, money above
THE INCREASING FREQUENCY OF BLACK SWANS
http://bit.ly/1J0kWw
That "deal of the week" must have sold for about 10-20K when it was built in '72. Someone may be paying too much.
only 10%/yr for 14 years - that's sustainable!
OT: Ireland Tycoons face ruin as State closes in
http://www.independent.ie/national-news/tycoons-face-ruin-as-state-close...
By DANIEL McCONNELL and RONALD QUINLAN
Sunday April 12 2009
Leading developers could flee the country as the new State 'bad bank' takes over their assets and tries to enforce "personal guarantees" they have given on their homes and possessions in return for massive bank loans.
Developers who default on loan repayments will find themselves forced into a fire sale of personal assets or face having them seized by the new agency as it seeks to recover billions lent during the boom.
Minister for Finance Brian Lenihan told the Sunday Independent that the State's 'bad bank', the National Asset Management Agency (Nama), will seek to recoup the full value of loans from developers -- even if that means going after their personal possessions. "It is not a rescue vehicle for developers -- Nama will expect to be repaid in the same way as a bank would" said the minister in an article in today's Sunday Independent.
Swamp otis:
I think you managed to cover it pretty well with your links. Bottom line? Try hiding the salami for as long as you can. You see homes like this in Southern California all the time. You'll see a home empty out in some areas and sit empty for months. Not on the MLS. Not on the bank balance sheet as a loss. The shadow inventory. My guess is many banks are either:
a: To overwhelmed to deal with anymore
b: Wishing on the free money fairy that they'll be able to unload these wonderful properties to the taxpayer via the PPIP
This is the kind of prime property taxpayers will be owning.
That "deal of the week" must have sold for about 10-20K when it was built in '72. Someone may be paying too much.
-minimum wage in 1968 was $1.60 (as per wiki), raised to $3.35 in 1981.
http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Minimum_wage_in_the_United_States#Earlier_U...
- wages above that were not much better, at the time.
"OT: Ireland Tycoons face ruin as State closes in"
They should have bought gold & diamonds. They could have fled with something, if they had.
"-minimum wage in 1968 was $1.60 (as per wiki), raised to $3.35 in 1981.
http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Minimum_wage_in_the_United_States#Earlier_U...
- wages above that were not much better, at the time."
The "minimum wage" used to be closer to a "living wage" than it is now.
When I was in high school, I had a part-time min. wage job at $1.75/hr.
If I had worked 40 hrs a week, I could have rented a house and driven a car.
Not any more, at minimum wage.
reptilian
Both show up on x-ray, and you are required by most borders to disclose such things.
Better to live on a boat, and then take off with everything while docking at a port that doesn't care what valuables you have on board
Now, if only President Obama would order the Navy Seals to Wall Street to take care of business there!
Oh wait a sec . . . does this mean people are actually learning the lesson that houses DEPRECIATE in value over time vs. APPRECIATE. The only thing that could possibly appreciate is the land not the house.
It would be absolutely insane to pay the same value (inflation adjusted price) for a 1979 vehicle 35 years later, and yet we do it with houses all the time.
You are starting to see homes like this in the more depressed parts of LA & Ventura County.
I had looked at a house in Oxnard that had sold for $100,000 in 1996, it sold for $104,000 in January for $104,000 with 3.5% seller paid closing costs.
There aren't a lot of these type of homes left on the market due to the lack of inventory because of the foreclosure moratoriums but I imagine by mid-summer we will see a bunch more.
Even with the low inventory it is mainly the REOs and Short sales selling.. the fair market sales that did close in March for Ventura County were empty:
http://effectivedemand.blogspot.com/2009/04/lots-of-empty-homes.html
Tough market for Fair market sellers unless they want to compete with foreclosures and short sales.
and then take off with everything while docking at a port that doesn't care what valuables you have on board
Make sure you have your letters of transit
Victor Laszlo will die in Casablanca," Rick replies, "What of it? I'm going to die in Casablanca. It's a good spot for it."
"in this crazy world," the "problems of three little people don't amount to a hill of beans"
Now, if only President Obama would order the Navy Seals to Wall Street to take care of business there! - c&c
truly, how are the banksters any different than the Somali pirates, other than the fact that the Somalis have more balls.
"Personally, I am glad to see housing prices return to affordability for first-time home buyers. I am sure there are many in the US who welcome this development, namely young families just starting out, and patient renters, who have been saving their money and biding their time. For every loser in this situation, there is also a winner. Banks be damned. "
IMHO the real estate boom was mainly about boomers, depression babies, and 30-40-something GenXers "getting theirs" at the expense of the GenYers and younger. I'd like to think that Gen Y would be a winner in this -- or at least get a decent consolation prize for the crappy hand they've been dealt so far -- crappy even in comparison to the Xers.
"The "minimum wage" used to be closer to a "living wage" than it is now.
When I was in high school, I had a part-time min. wage job at $1.75/hr.
If I had worked 40 hrs a week, I could have rented a house and driven a car.
Not any more, at minimum wage. "
The minimum wage was $1.60 an hour in '68, and it about stayed there through the early '70s. Run that through an inflation calculator and you get something like $9.50. Roughly $20K a year. And yes, you could live on it in the early '70s, even in California. Prices hadn't started going up yet in the 'burbs and blue-collar towns. Get a little duplex or basement apartment or studio in a carved-up Victorian for $60-$70 a month.
Those were the days. I was working in a chain pizza parlor part-time, living at home and going to community college. A lot of my co-workers were young kids out on their own and not worrying about the health insurance because as long as you had a few units you could stay on Dad's union health plan. And community college was free. Pot was 5 or 10 bucks a lid -- mostly bad, but if you smoked enough, who cared. Corporate management was evil, but plenty of product walked out the door and they never figured it out. They catered a lot of great parties for us and never caught on. We knew better than to steal actual money, though.
I'm not excusing all that we did, but... it was another time. And if you wonder why I go by the handle Bob Dobbs, it's because I remember a time when there was 'way more slack than now. And all the "innovations" and "deregulations" of the last 30 years have done nothing but remove more and more slack and add more and more fear.
The national news had a segment on squatting today.
In Miami, Liberty City, a not so great black area.
The chief of police said he saw no social value of kicking people out.
Prolly none of them is filing the requisite tax notice. They don't expect to stay that
long I guess. One family had moved right back in the house they were foreclosed out
of. Now there is an interesting color of title question.
If the banks go to the trouble of filing evictions the sheriff will have to kick them out.
The guy scouting empty houses said they'd be unlivable in a month anyway if nobody
moved in, which is of course, true.
Bob Dobbs,
Heh, interesting observation regarding the lack of slack...multiple observers have noted that the relentless 'optimization' of just about everything increases efficiency (thus reducing slack) but at the price of systemic resiliency...an increasing brittle system is the end result.
IIRC, doesn't the proselytizing of slack involve pleasure saucers or something like that?
I got married in 66 and we lived on his (untaxed then) grad school stipend, which was about $4500 a year. We did get some free food from family etc.
The apt was a 3rd story walk up with no ac, but it cost $75.00 a month, including heat, gas and electricity. Which was very cheap even then. In walking distance of the University.
I'm not gonna ask what pleasure saucers are. . . I'm not gonna ask. . .I'm not gonna ask. . .
Noooooo. . . I'm not gonna ask.
Arrreeee they what you put the teabags on?
I still couldn't afford to buy the house we are living in now, even with the big declines and 20% down.
1990s prices?
This weekend, while avoiding finishing my taxes, I wandered around realtor.com to some places I know. Ft. Lauderdale, FL - houses asking over $300,000 (1990s would have been closer to $150K I believe); Fairfield, CT - capes asking $500,000+ (1990s would have been around $250,000); Nicer sections of Bridgeport, close to $300,000 (1990s would have been around $100K). These are not 1990s prices. IMO, we still have a long way to go.
truly, how are the banksters any different than the Somali pirates
Better lobbying.
Hahaha, "Church of the Subgenius." I once told someone that I was a "sub-genius" and he looked at me like, "most of us are, it's nothing to be proud of."
Why don't we all file for extensions on our taxes?
Even if the gov't owes us money, it will worry them a lot.
"When I was in high school, I had a part-time min. wage job at $1.75/hr."
Rep-t-l:
Funny how you read comments and assume that the poster is roughly your own age. I'm in the $3.35 an hour group myself (though there was one ice cream shop that got away with a $2.35 "training" wage somehow). Sometimes I wonder if I'm the next youngest to Hoops and Nades...
That house is was and ever shall be a cute starter house, and I rather think is should be selling for under 100k to a cute starter couple.
Thanks for the list of doom, Otis. Despite all that, when any bank has good results this week, the market will skyrocket and disregard the rest. To me, the walmart and costco stories were bigger than Wells on thursday. Setting up a limit down day somewhere in the near future.
I'll tell ya what they were saying:
"We still get our fees even if we sell houses to illegal aliens. We love America!"
"
"When I was in high school, I had a part-time min. wage job at $1.75/hr."
Rep-t-l:
Funny how you read comments and assume that the poster is roughly your own age. I'm in the $3.35 an hour group myself (though there was one ice cream shop that got away with a $2.35 "training" wage somehow). Sometimes I wonder if I'm the next youngest to Hoops and Nades..."
All posters either are, were or will be my age. That was about 1970 that I got $1.75/hr.
Oh, no, Mr Illegal Alien is back.
I much prefer Jas Jain. Which isn't saying much.
BREAKING NEWS!!!
Jim the Realtor is going to be on Nightline tomorrow night!!!
-----
"Hope for the best, prepare for the worst"
Thanks TJ.
Jim the Realtor has found a niche. There was an LA Times article about him. He is doing alright, even in the down market. Clients like how he tells them about things they might miss, like the powerlines overhead, nearby freeway, park or school nearby.
Oh, well, nitey-nite.
Can we stop with the anecdotal evidence now?
I can show you houses that just sold in MY 'hood for what they were 'worth' in 2006.
Please get of the lyin' MSM train about this. Nobody really knows what the f$%k is goin' on....
...yet.
" I wonder what buyers (and lenders) were thinking in 2006?"
Too big to fail??
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Hey, me too !! Except we had a Corvair convertible to drive around and a Honda 50 motorcycle. Ahhh, those were the days. Tuition, room and board at Univ. of Ky was $1000 for two semesters. You could grow an acre of tobacco back home on the farm and pay for a year at college (like a lot of our friends), or work a summer job and occasionally during the semester and stay ahead. Good luck on that nowadays.
"Every man thinks God is on his side. The rich and powerful know he is."
Jean Anouilh (1910- )
"To me, the walmart and costco stories were bigger than Wells on thursday."
I agree - for a number of reasons. The pantries are now all stocked up, gift certs are gone, the tax return checks have been spent, no monies were left for big screens, and both "Best In Show" were WAY DOWN from projections - it doesn't bode well for the summer. Also, have you noticed the aisles are getting wider?
- - - - -
Black 
Ranch
Wow... I started at $3.10 in 86 at a dry cleaners tagging/bagging. Two years later I was up to something like $3.55... and bought a nice stereo for the 81 Corolla my sister and I shared until she went off to college and I got to take it to mine.
Five bucks an hour in college was enough to get by for pizza, parties, etc. Parents still paid tuition/board plus food included, but I had enough wiggle room to have fun.
Five dollar buckets (five gallons of beer) went a long way on weekends down on High Street (Columbus - Ohio State).
Good times.
Black Star Ranch (member) wrote on Sun, 04/12/2009 - 6:43pm.
[Walcostdepots] Also, have you noticed the aisles are getting wider?
What is scaring me is how shallow the shelves are stocked. What staple will we see a run on? I bet rice first and then cascade events.
In 1969 I got $1.25 HR in a restaurant washing dishes.
Five dollar buckets (five gallons of beer) went a long way on weekends down on High Street (Columbus - Ohio State).
Yes, but it was low beer (3.2% or less).
NorkaWest
"What staple will we see a run on?"
I think most people are too stupid to stock up on it. Too basic. Many don't know rice from beans.
- - - - -
Black Ranch
The market will get a uptick rul announced into options expiration this is the same game plan that occired when wfc raised the dividend and the short ban cam in. Recall how that ended they hads rareve release snd then cut the dividend last month. This contrived financial rally has been enough to get Goldman stock up and likely a 5 billion stock deal done. Maybe. This is the entire plan. Ygr stupid mutual fund money will flow in at the top. Look for it.
dUCKgOOSEbRAIN - your vilification of "illegal aliens" is even more tiresome and boring than Michael's references to the CFR. God forbid you ever suffer circumstances dire enough to force you to the extremity of having to illegally enter a country where your chances of survival are increased, even at the risk of deportation. Your ability to distinguish humans from illegal humans borders on the obsessive, as if borders themselves are anything more than a human construct. Is your survival so imperiled, or your wallet so impacted, than you would deny anyone who imposed on your precious sanctity an equal chance to live? Or can it only be "by the rules"? Don't even bother to answer, as I already know your lame response.
The market will get a uptick rul announced into options expiration this is the same game plan that occired when wfc raised the dividend and the short ban cam in. Recall how that ended they hads rareve release snd then cut the dividend last month. This contrived financial rally has been enough to get Goldman stock up and likely a 5 billion stock deal done. Maybe. This is the entire plan. Ygr stupid mutual fund money will flow in at the top. Look for it.
The market will get a uptick rul announced into options expiration this is the same game plan that occired when wfc raised the dividend and the short ban cam in. Recall how that ended they hads rareve release snd then cut the dividend last month. This contrived financial rally has been enough to get Goldman stock up and likely a 5 billion stock deal done. Maybe. This is the entire plan. Ygr stupid mutual fund money will flow in at the top. Look for it.
Geeze - what a bad memory: 3.2 beer
- - - - -
Black Ranch
New thread up.
San Francisco is protesting, again.
NorkaWest
So in other words, San Francisco is truly immune to housing busts. Decent San Francisco districts are still selling at 2006 prices and within 2-3 months (I am looking to buy and see this first hand).
Prime San Francisco is definitely immune to any and all RE busts.
Stress Tests: Who Will Take the Fall?
To view our impartial assessment, please visit:
High end San Francisco is still holding 2006 prices if by holding, you mean asking. Selling? Almost nothing.
I wonder what buyers (and lenders) were thinking in 2006?
"I don't know why this fool is giving me this money but I'm going to take it. My credit is already ruined and I'm broke. Why not?"
These are not 1990s prices. IMO, we still have a long way to go.
Irrational exuberance on the downside. If prices are maintained at 90s levels, home ownership costs will be the last of our worries. Multiples of incomes are
lawyerlizinMI (member) wrote on Sun, 04/12/2009 - 6:03pm.
The national news had a segment on squatting today.
In Miami, Liberty City, a not so great black area.
The chief of police said he saw no social value of kicking people out.
Prolly none of them is filing the requisite tax notice. They don't expect to stay that
long I guess. One family had moved right back in the house they were foreclosed out
of. Now there is an interesting color of title question.
If the banks go to the trouble of filing evictions the sheriff will have to kick them out.
The guy scouting empty houses said they'd be unlivable in a month anyway if nobody
moved in, which is of course, true.
Humour me here.. why would they be "unlivable in a month"? I know South FLA is humid and infested with palmetto bugs and all that. But UNLIVABLE? I've lived in Irish country houses that had been abandoned for ten+ years with no maintenance (yes, as a squatter) I've lived in London terraced houses that had been empty for donkey's years. A little bitumen on the roof, some plumbing work, and a good overcoat for cold nights, and Bob's your uncle. Maybe old brick walls, plaster and lath, and wood floors hold up a bit better that styrofoam, chicken wire, and drywall. Are my standards that low, or are these houses really THAT bad?
Squatting is actually not so bad most of the time. The biggest hazard is other squatters. I lived in one place in north London where our downstairs neighbors were pot smoking hippies and above them were some Pakistanis. The hippies went out one day to dumpster dive for food (my wife and I are NOT hippies and had proper jobs BTW). The Pakis took a sawsall and cut a hole in their floor, dropped a ladder into the hippie's living room, pushed their things out into the front hall, boarded up the door from the inside and had themselves a new sitting room. Access via the ladder. You either fight or lose out. The hippies were bummed but said nothing. The ringleader Sanjay upstairs went on to semi fame with the Aisan Dub Foundation. What a bastard.
I'll say it again! If the government were serious about never letting this happen again, they would regulate the mortgage industry and require 20% down on everything and a 30-yr fixed on everything.
...Multiples of incomes are a better measure, not an arbitrary point in time before the asset bubble.
Oh no!- The fascist is back!
LMFAO...you are an idiot full of nonsense. The turd-world grows by ONE HUNDRED MILLIONS PEOPLE PER YEAR! This is 100 million ABOVE the death rate of the turd-world. THE UNITED STATES OF AMERICA CANNOT BE THE PRESSURE RELIEF VALVE FOR THE WHOLE THIRD WORLD. GET IT? PLEASE MOVE TO MEXICO. They need you there!
What distressed sale?
Just wait till you get the real distressed sale.
But that aside, I would say, it is nearing the trend line .... I would say early 90 prices with the trend line over the previous 10/20 years should provide indication of where prices should be!!
Good for prudent home buyers but would THE TRIAD OF FOOLS (GEITHNER, BAIR, BERNANKE) be OK with this ...
Papa Joe's....Think I still have one of those scarlet buckets in my garage somewhere!
They were thinking just what Bear Stearns, Lehman, and CITI were thinking. That U.S. housing prices always go up!!!!! Just like Tulip Bulbs and Dot.Com stocks!!!!
By holding I mean I am still seeing 1 bedroom condos asking and then sell for asking within a few months for the same prices previously bought at in 2006.
I lost out on two bids because I tried to lowball -and these were both from seller who needed to move.
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