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This is Martin Armstrong's "Tell All"
http://www.scribd.com/doc/14227076/Behind-the-Curtain4909
Captivating Read. Anyone else have an opinion on it?
Goddess, Nemo, you are good!
lawyerliz
INTC down to 15.12 after hours; closed about 16.00. 6%!
Now that we can edit our posts, I can cheat a little.
- Nemo
And in response to the previous thread, yes, I agree that incompetence plays the biggest role in the shadow inventory thing. There is a lot of managerial stupidity and a modicum of sneakiness also.
I only wish I thought there was more sneakiness; that would imply that there was some thinking going on--alas, not much.
lawyerliz
It inspired my tim* foil hat query, previous thread on Armstrong.
The production quality is not good, but I'm not sure that has anything to do with truth.
It may be that GS is showing some weakness by allowing 666 and Armstrong any breathing room at all before they get smacked down.
What was that allusion to assassination?
* I was going to edit this misspelling (sp?) but it sort alludes to Geithner, so I'm leaving it be.
lawyerliz
How come I can't buy shares in a law firm? Is this protectionism or something? Globalist free enterprise says I should be able to, right?
Will someone please define and tell me where to track the leading indicators: PCE and RI.
Thanks for a great site!
INTC, WFC, GS, J&J...companies are still making money...depression should be off the table for those with any analysis skills
Hah, the anonymouses have to distinguish themselves now!
You have to be a lawyer to get your hands on the profits of a law firm.
It's a law.
lawyerliz
Anon1:
I can't speak to PCE but RI is somewhere southeast of Connecticut.
homedad43
CR, I think at the least we are in a real estate depression. I understand that the price decllines are worse than they were in GD I.
lawyerliz
.....Just Curious.........What are the differences in the three definitions? "Currently there are 10-members, 23 users and 136 guests online."
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Black 
Ranch
Is anyone really that in the dark as to not understand that much of the TARP funds were actually temporary liquidity loans to tide over the TBTF firms until they could get better balanced? Most firms fail or are preyed on by the beneficiaries of TARP when they get into a liquidity jam. But we surrendered notions of equality under the rule of law long ago. Oligarchic privilege--much better than "Droit de seigneur".
The TARP payback just allows them to resume insidious business as usual without the constraints demanded by gov't money. Oversight and regulation (ha-ha) should taper off too.
GS would have paid handsomely to private capital for use of their funds to make it through that liquidity squeeze, but gov't funding again crowded out that possibility. Ah to have such access and such power over the politically feeble taxpayer. Sharp elbows on Uncle Sam.
The state regards Joe taxpayer as chattel and his modest possessions may be nationalized and directed to enterprise of their selection without the petty restraint of the true owner's simple-minded consent. How has the new world, built by escapees of despotism, now become THE despot? The time value of creeping corruption.
How much Month of Inventory is still there after the reduction? Can't they project sales a bit? Can we see demand destruction in real time?
It seems to me there is simply a continuing suspension of disbelief. After the treasury, the Fed (subprime is CONTAINED), all realitors, after Bear, after Lehman, after AIG, ad infinitum, there is just too much hopeing to be at the bottom.
I'm retireing in a few years, (O, yeah, my 201k - maybe not). I want very, very much for the market to come back, and accept I can't sell my house at the bubblicious price, to be able at least to sell it.
But I try to be "reality based." What I hope for, what I want , and what is are not the same. As Lincoln said, if a dog's tail was a leg, how many legs would a dog have?
4
a tail is not a leg.
The narrative in the semiconductor industry is that shipments in Q4 2008 - Q1 2009 dropped to zero as the manufacturers wanted to decrease supply. The declines were steep enough to support such a theory, but it's not clear where demand will level out.
INTC has a problem now that they have introduced a high-end, high-margin line of processors based on a new architecture (Nahalem) [1], and a low-end, low-margin line of processors based on another new architecture (Atom) [2]. The problem is that mom and pop are generally happy with Atom ($10 CPU) and don't require Nahalem ($100+ CPU). Intel needed to release Atom to keep competitors out of the low-end, but they risk cannibalizing their mid-range which currently buys PCs with $100 Core2 CPUs
Also, Intel is pushing back the introduction of more consumer-oriented Nahalem derivatives since the market for them is very weak [3].
There is no natural bottom for INTC margins/profits since what they sell is undergoing rapid commoditization. Yes, they lead the industry in chip fabrication, but that matters very little when mom and pop are happy with a $300 PC.
[1] http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Nehalem_(microarchitecture)
[2] http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Intel_atom
[3] http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Intel_Core_i5
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The Zombie Apocalypse begins when U3 hits 15%
There was very little legal sized paper at Office Depot today.
For whatever it's worth.
I think that GS et al will discover that after the golden goose is killed, (and it's in bad shape) no more golden eggs will be forthcoming.
lawyerliz
I am a modest holder of Intel and am quite a bit underwater. True past performance is no indicator of future performance but in this case I think such is not the case. I think past performance was more than disapppointing and taken with the letter I see not a glimmer of hope for my holdings returning above water in the far distant future to quote our president.
I sold my bit in the fall of 07.
But stayed in GE. Which I don't even check anymore. Selling is not worth the bother.
I see no point in saving money, but don't think it's a good time to borrow.
Spend every cent and not one cent more!!
lawyerliz
I think that GS et al will discover that after the golden goose is killed, (and it's in bad shape) no more golden eggs will be forthcoming.
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Somehow this seems unlikely, since they are willing to pay the TARP back to prevent anyone peering too closely at them, one could conclude that they have already found the next game.
So Intel beat earnings estimate, revenue estimate and margin estimate but didn't give solid guidance for the next quarter and the stock get hammered. I'm thinking expectations were getting a little ahead of reality. Can't wait to see what the market does when a company reports bad earnings.
Where's crispy_bait? He's got some mad analysis skillz...
Forget golden gooses, if I was at GS right now I'd be installing a missile/airplane defense system on top of this: http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/File:GoldmanSachsTower.jpg
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The Zombie Apocalypse begins when U3 hits 15%
Well I just bought a desktop but it was so cheap I can't believe the stock paid a dividend.
In an efficient, competitive market profits go to zero.
Even GS is not infinitely rich and smart.
Somebody needs to do something on economics/business/corporations analogous to Machiavelli in Politics.
lawyerliz
OT from thread on LA Port Traffic to Tim/2012:
Think that you are correct in looking at exports from coal standpoint. Relative involved in (harbor) pilot field in SE US and states that about the only thing really moving from ship cargo standpoint has been coal going overseas. All else is dead.
If LA handles large amounts of coal, then you've got a winner...
homedad43
Gov. Perry Backs Resolution Affirming Texas' Sovereignty Under 10th Amendment
Someone posted this earlier, OT but interesting :
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=8_tf25lx_3o
Shucks, since reading Armstrong things seem to be a little greyer around the edges. Or maybe i just need glasses.
My, my that GS tower does look like a certain sexual organ of the male persuasion.
Could they say any clearer they want to F**k us?
lawyerliz
TARP is a side show- it is a magician's trick to distract you from the slight of hand. Notice Goldman is giving back the TARP money but they are not changing their bank holding company status. It is the huge hand outs from the Federal Reserve that is the real rip off. All these institutions get dirt cheap financing (something that they couldn't get anywhere else) and they don't have to give up a bit of equity or anything else.
That is the gigantic rip off- off balance sheet and accountable to nobody.
It passes the smell test as far as I am concerned. He is America's Man In The Iron Mask, a political prisoner for at least eight years with four more to go.
"INTC, WFC, GS, J&J...companies are still making money"
Who are you and what have you done with C&C?
I'll give you j&j and maybe intc but GS and WFC "profits" are dubious at best:
http://www.ritholtz.com/blog/2009/04/taxpayer-funded-gs-profits/
http://www.ritholtz.com/blog/2009/04/how-to-puff-up-earnings-goldman-sac...
http://www.housingwire.com/2009/04/09/credit-cost-smoke-at-mirrors-at-we...
Intel's 44-50 cents net profit per share on an annual basis indicates the current stock price is too high (F-P/E > 30).
1 currency now -yogi: In an efficient, competitive market profits go to zero.
In an efficient, competitive market, profits go to the cost of capital, which is never zero. That is the difference between a regular company and not-for-profit. A regular company raises equity based on being able to return profits in the future.
Machiavelli
------------------
Heehee, pound of flesh
What is the chances every single individual formally domicile and various umbrellas of different sizes are provided? Everyone can stay warm and dry out of the rain.
Nano thermite?????
How much did they find? And couldn't it have been created by the airplane strike itself.
Maaaayyyybeee we have 2 conspiracies intersecting! But you have to get up to 5 to be in Illuminatus! territory.
lawyerliz
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"Could they say any clearer they want to F**k us?"
--------------
Yes, they did that yesterday.
How much did they find? And couldn't it have been created by the airplane strike itself.
-------------------------
Not sure but he did say you needed tons of the stuff, implying someone planted it there. 2 planes and 3 buildings collapse. And now that i think about it, it does look peculiar the way the buildings went down, top to bottom, floor by floor, almost like a controlled demolition. Any experts on demolitions care to comment?
If only we could reduce excess new single family housing inventory at 19% per quarter! Problem solved!
Problem is: houses still being built (just not as many) and then the problem of more housing coming on the market due to foreclosures/unemployment/dislocation.
And lest we forget, the shadow inventory of REO.
So many empty houses, so few qualified buyers, & so many more months of housing inventory to work down.
The same problem applies to US autos apparently. A parallel auto bust and housing bust make for a perfect storm.
Add in zombie banks, zombie commercial development, and zombie workers (U6) and we are all Book of Isaiah, Chapter 21, verses 5-9, looking for those horsemen: "Babylon is fallen, is fallen."
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NEW POST at Calculated Risk.
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Forget golden gooses, if I was at GS right now I'd be installing a missile/airplane defense system on top of this: http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/File:GoldmanSachsTower.jpg
I used to walk under that thing to work every day. That little colgate sign and clock is liberty harbor.
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Intel has a track record of being way too bullish with conference call comments and tone. I have listened to most their calls for 15 years and never is bad news been given or implied. The single best indicator are gross profit margins. It pretty much says it all. If margins are steady then demand OK . If margins are going up then there is a real demand pickup. If margins are going down things are bad to terrible.
With margins headed lower this is bad! I am shocked how far Intel margins have fallen in the last four quarters.
Stay far away from this tech name until gross margins get to at least 50%.
There are definitely signs of production ramping in semiconductor fabs.
Time will tell whether this was really "the bottom".
- Nemo