On the brightside - productivity should be at its highest ever.
The beat goes on.
No recovery until the average person has prospects for work with a livable wage (one that doesn't involve taking on lots of CC debt or using property as an ATM).
I would think that this downturn in industrial production would be more problematic than that after WW2.
perhaps my history is bad, but did we not ramp up production significantly during wartime, often using women workers etc?
would all that production not go away once the war is won? (until it can all be retooled etc).
so I'd guess (not being a historian) that the VE day downturn in IP was simply going from wartime economy to "normal" economy whereas this time it's going from bubble to "normal"
ominous.
During all of WW2 on the home front, there was precious little to purchase with all the money stateside workers were making...
It took a few years after the festivities, to ramp up production to meet civilian demands for consumer goods, along with demand for new housing, very little of which had been built since 1929.
talked to a friend who works in robotics. orders fell off the november cliff. many layoffs. they are attempting to keep a core together, develop new products, refine existing ones and have the best products to offer when (if?) the orders begin to come in again.
hope they have a reasonable stash of cash.
Say it, CR: 'Depression.'
That wasn't so tough, was it?
Once you acknowledge it, you can prepare for it: gold, guns, and grub.
Each and every veteran from WW2 that returned to the states was a member of the "52-20 Club", as they received $20 a week from our government.
Imagine the impact this must have had on manufacturing?
If you build it will they come and will they do more than window shop ?
.............................
If you don't take your profits, someone else will.
YTL,
This decrease in industrial production is much more problematic in that post-WWII, most of the rest of the productive capacity of the planet had been bombed into rubble. Now, China is subsidizing adding additional capacity to keep employment up...
69.3% of capacity utilization rate.
That's inflationary, right?
FWIW, in my neck of the woods I'm (nor any fellow business owners I know) not really seeing any uptick - at best a plateau at a lower level.
2008 was the year of the cash burn while 2009 will be the year of capitulation for a lot of small businesses.
The Fed throws everything they can dream up at the slumping economy and this is the result ? Where's my inflation ?
$20.00 in 1946 is equivalent to slightly more than $218.00 in 2008 dollars.
.............................
If you don't take your profits, someone else will.
$20.00 in 1946 is equivalent to slightly more than $218.00 in 2008 dollars.
And $2,180,000,000,000,000,000,000,000,000,000,000,000,000,000,000.57 in 2012 dollars.
Auto and construction related manufacturing are what drives the industrial sector so no surprise other then why its a surprise.
Cheer up guys! This is good for the climate afterall.
yet another glimmer of hope....
(hmm hmm hmm hmm.....Here comes the Sunnn)
Folks have been talking about the US as a 'post industrial' society for some time. Now we get to see what happens when your clothes washer, garden tools, and everything else that we no longer manufacture have to be paid for with some kind of export profits - and we don't have any. Anybody spare a rake?
Porn and hollywood movies will save us, right?
Who played the mark-to-model game the most recklessly?
The honors go to many cities across this fine land that were in line to receive $10 to 50K for each house the developers planned to build, and spent the money like drunken sailors, which is why many of them have been insolvent for a few years now, because an awful lot of developments turned out to be stillborn.
Oh get real, ac!
We wont be using fractions of a dollar in 2012.
Is it safe to say the deflationistas have won this battle? Your inflation has been postponed, check back in 2010.
When looking at this graph in the long view it is a tell tale sign of where the US is at as far as industrialization. The US has been in Industrial decline for some time now. When smoothing the peaks and valleys, industry form 67 - early 80s declining. From early 80s to 2008 is pretty much flat to slightly declining and this was during a period of maximum finance schemes where the amount of debt to produce GDPincreased from (~1.5) to (~5-7).
From 2008 to present finance schemes have turned into a powder kegs and we are in industrial free fall. It will be interesting to see if and how business folk and economist that seem to be stuck in ideological backwaters of the glory days can navigate as we head into a much different future with a much larger population and much less resources.
Cheers.
RE: Treasury calling bonds
Wouldn't this hurt the treasury market going forward? Shouldn't investors in treasuries perceive a greater risk of having their bonds called? Calling bonds seems like something a person getting out of debt should do, not someone who continues to pile up massive amounts.
Well its nice to see Kermit this morning too.
1960's: 007 Bond, James Bond
2000's: .007 Bond, rate of annual return
YTL, This decrease in industrial production is much more problematic in that post-WWII
agreed. guess my post didn't convey that well. That's why I used the word ominous.
post-WWII, most of the rest of the productive capacity of the planet had been bombed into rubble.
2 thoughts here...
1) my post was more in relation to American decrease in industrial production, not worldwide. obviously America wasn't bombed.
2) the bombing of the Eurozone industries helped America in the post war period as America could rapidly ramp up industrial production and export to the rest of the world. This made America a dominant superpower. Perhaps I'm just extending the thought that you left unwritten.
There are many people who feel that America became a superpower only because it was left unravaged by WW1 then WW2. it gave us competitive head start.
clearly, this is worse today, because we and the ROW are all hurting with decreased IP, thus we won't be able to export our way out of this as we did in the 1940's//50's.
this is especially problematic given the currency peggers and the mercantilists. there will likely be a beggar thy neighbor war with competitive devaluation.
wonder if the world leaders can agree to simply devalue cooperatively or not.
the only way "out" of this that I see is coordinated worldwide currency devaluation.
Fiji Devalues Dollar as Military Tightens Control
http://www.bloomberg.com/apps/news?pid=newsarchive&sid=aGcTgCW5GpaA
"The central bank fixed the currency at $0.5697 this morning before the devaluation and subsequently lowered the official rate to $0.4558. The Fijian dollar's value is managed against a basket of the currencies of the nation's trading partners."
I don't think the U.S. could pull off the same thing.
>Is it safe to say the deflationistas have won this battle? Your inflation has been postponed, check back in 2010.
What are you smoking? Production is being cut back all over the globe in everything from copper to corn and cotton. We've hardly ever seen production cutbacks this fast and on this global scale.
Meanwhile, half of the world's expanding population lives in countries where GDP is still growing. Can't you see the resource wars coming, and what they will do to the supply/demand balance for basic commodities? The Chinese can.
Technology has always been in deflation mode, and so are some types of manufactured products. But not commodities. The signs of inflation in commodities are everywhere. Only you can't see them.
I think we are so used to deflation in terms of technology always going down in price, that it has blinded us to the danger of runaway inflation.
The honors go to many cities across this fine land that were in line to receive $10 to 50K for each house the developers planned to build, and spent the money like drunken sailors, which is why many of them have been insolvent for a few years now, because an awful lot of developments turned out to be stillborn.
And financed with TIF districts that will see no return on investment.
rich, I didn't say there wouldn't be inflation, I just don't see it this year. To answer your question, I'm smoking some nice Cali stock...
Once you acknowledge it, you can prepare for it: gold, guns, and grub.
I still say CR's "field trips" were cover for his scouting out hideaways. 
-----
"Hope for the best, prepare for the worst"
If one really wanted to get away to somewhere where normality was unchallenged by financial foibles, wouldn't a 3rd world country be the best hiding place, in lieu of hanging out here in the states?
from ZeroHedge
Looking Behind the Curtain (PDF warning)
Martin Armstrong
April 9, 2009
"I realize that there is a storm cloud brewing with conspiracy stories with Goldman Sachs at the center. These theories are not perhaps absolutely correct, but they are not far off either."
Porn and hollywood movies will save us, right?
Marilyn Chambers is dead:(
About 1/2 the floor of the office building where I'm located at is now filled with the production crew working on a movie starring Nick Nolte - at least the bars and police officers manning the sobriety checkpoints will be busy!
That's OK, all will be well soon. The stock market is telling me so -- as we all know it'd 'forward-looking'. Second half recovery and all that.
$20 bought 400 rides on the nyc subway in 1946. $218 buys 109 rides (going down soon) in 2009.
Since the free market was not providing jobs and shelter for returning WWII veterans, the public stepped into the void. Seignorage from dollar hegemony slowly made everyone rich. (Many Americans also worked and innovated)
green shoots say hello to late frost
If one really wanted to get away to somewhere where normality was unchallenged by financial foibles, wouldn't a 3rd world country be the best hiding place, in lieu of hanging out here in the states?
in general, no.
Just as the poor and working class disproportionally suffer in America during hard times, so too do developing nations suffer disproportionally during bad times.
My guess is that our life here would be significantly better during a depression than most people in developing world.
if you do choose a developing country, you must make sure that it has its own water supply, food, energy etc.
doesn't help to have a huge stash of cash and be unaffected by the financial system if you're in rural Brazil without clean water or food, and no energy or phone.
not to say that it cannot be done. but it must be done carefully.
I'd rather be in a more rural area of the States actually.
Hollywood is at the verge of a technological cliff.
It's not unlike when the talkies came along in the late 1920's, rendering the silent stars of the screen speechless.
The technological problem is coming from both ends. Hollywood can't seem to make a movie for less than $100 Million, while on the other end, the technology that enables the public to make their own movies hardly costs anything.
Empire State shows great result today. But hey, we will report only negative news, right???
"Comrade Kristina (member) wrote on Wed, 04/15/2009 - 7:17am.
rich, I didn't say there wouldn't be inflation, I just don't see it this year. To answer your question, I'm smoking some nice Cali stock..."
Was here I read a quote like this? - Inflation will commence as soon as the bottomless pit is filled?
Cap U needs to be above 80% for inflation to come out of the industrial sector, so, while I see inflation as inevitable, the inevitable is a year or so away, when sheer money printing overwhelms the weak underlying economy to create inflation. Good thing manufacturing has been in a depression for 20+ years in the US, and has become a relatively smaller part of gdp, otherwise the gdp numbers would be really ugly.
my god...
the f'in teabaggers are out in full force today...12 events in my state...including one in my city.
revolutionaries? more like media byproducts....
I suppose we're green because all this excess capacity will be needed to fill orders in the third and fourth quarter.
Gee, it's a good thing manufacturing is such a small part of the American economy; otherwise, we'd be in a Depression.
Bank with Bernanke; Don't trust in Trichet.
One of the advantages of running on the world's reserve currency is that people are willing to lend you money in your own currency. One of the disadvantages is that it's practically impossible to devalue your currency by fiat.
I doubt we'll be able to follow the Fijians lead in buggering our own currency, as somebody else will do it for us,
Comrade Kristina - I was wondering the same thing...I've been pretty squarely in the inflationista camp for a while, but it does appear that the Ben & Timmah aren't able to get out in front of the credit destruction. It is looking more and more like the deflationistas are winning - at least the early rounds. This drop off is really scary...I think it's also a lagging indicator, but not as lagging as unemployment. Of course, what do I know: I'm an ignorant onlooker.
Comrade Dope JG - I just broke down and ordered a nice 700SPS .308 to better collect bambi this year. It feels a little wacky, to be honest, but prices are down.
I have to admit, Americans are going out with style. Almost 30 years ago they collectively decided that investing in renewable energies and saving energy are for librul homos and B-class actor as president was the way to go. Then the President Ray-Gun declared Star Wars but Alpha Centauri was a little bit too far away. Meanwhile, the evil empire collapsed because putting all the money into weapons was not such a hot idea after all. But of course it was the Star Wars that actually collapsed the empire. No question about it and Earth is also 6000 years old...
Then American right wingnuts and whackjobs was sidetracked by evil librul Bill Clinton and they spent the better part of that decade wondering whether a blowjob was actually a sexual act or not, or at least one of the deadly sins. The King President Dubya saved the day for them a little bit later on. As true right winger, he started two totally useless wars and started deficit spending for real.
At the same time, American captains of industries decided to outsource everything, everybody and their dogs to Asia and of course for free. Chinese did not need to pay anything for those factories and for the knowhow. The glorious captains wanted to become Gordon Gekkos and greed was good. Also, maximizing shareholder value-ideology went out of the window and was replaced by maximizing my bonus value. J6Ps also were happily busy flipping oversized houses and getting more and more into debt like pigs in shit.
And now as everything is collapsing, they have decided to arm themselves to the teeth because armed and uneducated populace is clearly the way to go and Jesus is also coming any second now. There are also those evil libruls which wanna take away their precious guns. Obama is also a closet commie and going to send UN troops to kill those American True Patriots out there.
Dont know if this was posted already:
U.S. May Soon Release Bank Stress Tests.
The Obama administration is working on plans to disclose the results of financial "stress tests" undergone by the nation's 19 biggest banks, according to a New York Times report Wednesday.
The move comes earlier than anticipated and is designed to soothe nervous investors who might otherwise avoid banks thought to be the weakest.
http://www.cbsnews.com/stories/2009/04/15/business/main4946228.shtml
Hope everyone is locked and loaded with their puts and calls.... it could be a bump ride! 
The teabaggers, just like Code Pink are impotent and uninformed. The ruling elite are laughing at them...Kinda like I laugh at one of my pets when they do something endearing and silly...
(wow i'm late to the show...)
That's it, I'm moving to Somalia. I heard there are opportunities floating by for the taking over there...
"it's practically impossible to devalue your currency by fiat. "
Ben could start buying gold in the open market. Say he pays $3000 for gold. He gets to write up the gold he holds as assets on his balance sheet, he adds to the assets on his balance sheet, and he puts money into circulation. Also, trying to devalue the dollar against other currencies will lead to competitive devaluation. To devalue, Ben needs to devalue against something other than (baskets of) currencies. Gold or silver would work.
I wonder how many people are using the last of their available credit to purchase arms & ammo?, especially in the bible belt.
I wonder how many people are using the last of their available credit to purchase arms & ammo?, especially in the bible belt.
Arbitrage, they are going all in down here on the Florida panhandle...
"The teabaggers, just like Code Pink are impotent and uninformed. The ruling elite are laughing at them"
Disagree. The protests aren't as important in affecting the PTB right now as they are in getting the masses psychologically aware of problems, showing that a small and growing number of people are not happy. Incite a riot in the masses and the PTB will notice. Also, your argument implies doing nothing is much more effective.
--
I am sure that "Printing Money" inflation dopes would argue that low capacity utilization is inflationary because they are cutting back production, i.e., supply of goods. These dopes would remain in denial of deflation until it hits them hard on the head.
Jas
Date Time Report Month Forecast Actual Previous
Apr-15-2009 5:30 AM ET US NY Fed manufacturing Apr -35 -14.65 -38.23
I fervently hope that Jas still believes in U.S. Government debt instruments as an investment vehicle, so we can have the last laugh on an Indian Bred & Born Americanized Dope.
peasant, not at all. I don't believe doing nothing is the answer but I do believe a little more effort to actually understand what the problems are is going to be necessary. Simply waving teabags around and protesting imaginary tax increases isn't going to get it. I wonder how many of these people understand or care that their government is owned by the banksters and has been for decades? Until such time as that problem is brought to light, nothing changes. Get angry, but at least be informed about what you are angry over.
Jas, you must save us from the tea bagger trolls...surely there cannot be greater BBADs.
Comrade scott,why not just drive a pickup on rural roads near dawn or dusk? I picked off 3 that way last year and no bloodshot meat.
Tom Stone
--
Nothing short of an armed revolution targeted at them would scare the ruling elite.
Riots only affect dopes and not the elite. Protests are feel-good thing that dopes love to do because they got nothing better to do anyway.
ONLY BLOOD WILL CONQUER MONEY.
Jas
A lot of talk about pitchforks and madmaxish behahiour, but I'm wondering what the trigger for WWIII will be ... another spike in comodities perhaps?
Anyhow, all the other reports are horrible
Wish I could play pacman but I'll be back later to see if the wingnuts got screwed proper.
Here is an example of what Imean peasant. I called in to a very popular right wing local talk show here in Florida. They were discussing bailouts and bonuses. I brought up the CDS problem and explained the AIG money was going to GS, JPM etc and that the problem is in the tens of trillions of dollars area. I was told by the host that the topic was too complex for a radio show and he admitted he had no idea what I was talking about. This is one of the guys that is organizing the local tea parties...
Imagine the glee and joy Karl Rove must have felt, when the realization hit him that 25% of Americans still supported reckless republican tendencies , no matter what happens?
Things are so bad that US army could easily track Osama's Big Cave by simply analyzing seismic vibrations, instead of using those drone planes. They are daily collectively laughing their asses off by watching Fox News.
Arbitrage Macht Frei wrote on Wed, 04/15/2009 - 6:56pm.
Imagine the glee and joy Karl Rove must have felt, when the realization hit him that 25% of Americans still supported reckless republican tendencies , no matter what happens?
I'm thinkin' a Palin/Huckabee ticket in 2012.
ONLY BLOOD WILL CONQUER MONE
Jas,
What say we don't advertise that idea. Some of the teabaggers live not to far from the edge.
.............................
If you don't take your profits, someone else will.
--
What I like the most about the USTs is that born-and-bred American dopes despise them!
I have the best record in the world as far as USTs are concerned. I made a bundle in the 115P-142C strangle that I posted here few months back and 110P-135C strangle I added later. The premiums on those options have collapsed recently. I am not a part-time dope that think that they are investing when they are feeding the crooks.
Jas
I expect output to come back in the short term as we start to build printing machinery and tanks. Helecopters will be precision bombing the populace with piles of US$......
"Pacman wrote on Wed, 04/15/2009 - 7:40am. "
In a nutshell, yep.
The trickiest part for America is coming still...
The crazy fundamentals think the end of the world is coming, a self-fulfilling prophecy of sorts.
They have nothing to lose (politically dead in the water) and tend to be armed to the teeth.
Earth to Jas - Inflation ripped while the economy collapsed in: Weimar Germany, post WWII Japan, most of Latin America in the 1980's, 1990's ex-Soviet Bloc, and currently in Zimbabwe and other parts of Africa. Need anymore examples? Wrap another piece of tinfoil around your head and keeping buying those long-dated US treasuries.
Yeah Baby!
Jas has explained how he's gonna get creamed, as he's still holding U.S. weapons of mass debtstruction.
The Silver Lining to this awful debacle....
--
It should be clear that born-and-bred American dopes, especially, the "Printing Money" variety don't understand what causes deflation in the American econo-political system. They have been bred to be dope for a reason. "Printing Money" is an Orwellian propaganda.
Jas
I don't want to seem greedy, but after spx 815, I'm looking forward to 789. Least that's my theory.
.............................
If you don't take your profits, someone else will.
"$20.00 in 1946 is equivalent to slightly more than $218.00 in 2008 dollars."
What a coincidence! If you were paid that $20. in two rolls of silver quarters back then (1946), it would be worth the same $220. NOW in silver content.
- - - - -
Black 
Ranch
"A lot of talk about pitchforks and madmaxish behahiour, but I'm wondering what the trigger for WWIII will be ... another spike in comodities perhaps?"
No, it will one of those teenage prostitute humping tee-vee reverends declaring "Ah greet yeew in the nayum of our Lorud and Saveeyor Cheesus Chraiys. Today, mah sehcond cu-sin General Ted Buck from Texas D-Fens laa-unchhed Lord All-Maahty Nuhkes ah-gainst those eevil libruls and homos in Nehw Yorrk and Caa-lifornia! Hallelujah! Praiihshe thah Lorrrrd!"
Jas,
You constantly rail against the U.S. Government and it's proxies, our financial system...
And then you invest in treasuries.
Go figure?
OT market chatter,
Looking at money flows, check the largest amont of "Selling on Strength" in the block trades...(atm GS).
http://online.wsj.com/mdc/public/page/2_3022-mflppg-moneyflow.html?mod=m...
--
Dopes are known for making comparisons that don't apply. They are bred to do that.
Jas
What I find interesting is the gradual taper downward of the peak capacity utilization. The peaks are now about 9% lower than the peaks in the late 1960s. Given the advent of just-in-time processes, this surprises me. I would expect redundant factories to be eliminated altogether. Can anyone knowledgeable like Dryfly or EHP explain why this is?
--
I understand how the Crooks operate far better than most. Crooks own USTs and dopes don't! Until Crooks are dethroned USTs will do very well. I will bailout ONLY when I see realistic probability that Crooks will be dethroned. Until then, the USTs are the best vehicle to preserve the purchasing power of one's savings.
FYI to all you morons: You can buy 20 times as much crude oil as in Sep'81 with the money invested in the longest dated USTs. You can buy more of almost anything. You can buy 5 times bigger, or better, CA home! Morons don't understand USTs and yet they keep talking about them.
Jas
Turbo,
About inflation in post-WWII Japan. The U.S. occupation forces set the value of the Yen at 1000 to the dollar. Currently, it is around 99 to the dollar. That's raging inflation for you.
" I am not a part-time dope that think that they are investing when they are feeding the crooks." --Jas
From the sound of it, you have been feeding the crooks for years too. Treasuries have been in a 27 year bull market, and now that are deficits are bigger, debts are bigger, and receipts are collapsing, you have become an uber-bull.
Arbitrage Macht Frei wrote on Wed, 04/15/2009 - 8:01am.
"The trickiest part for America is coming still...
The crazy fundamentals think the end of the world is coming, a self-fulfilling prophecy of sorts.
They have nothing to lose (politically dead in the water) and tend to be armed to the teeth. "
**********
Yes, Iran does look worrisome.
Flaminia,
Just In Time only covers inventories. It increases the amount of time factories are idle because they must more closely match rises and falls in demand (in order to keep inventories low.)
"I would tell you it's not a recession. I would define this as a depression. A recession by definition is when you raise interest rates to slow growth. We are at a zero-interest-rate policy and have been. The world is at a zero-interest-rate policy, yet we continue to see the economy slide. We continue to see unemployment grow. We continue to see confidence wane not just here but around the world."
http://www.blueridgenow.com/article/20090414/NEWS/904149995/1042?Title=S...
Sen. Burr of NC.
Tax Day: Merits and Misconceptions
An assessment of common attitudes towards taxation.
--
Hey, dope, don't I have the right to preserve the purchasing power of my savings as best as I know how? Why do you think that you have a better idea than I do??
Jas
--
Scam Lovers have been feeding the Crooks, not the UST-lovers.
Jas
Keep investing in supposed continuous-function instruments. Remember that the trap is laid when enough suckers believe the open mouth propaganda and the historical charts. Then discontinuity hits, an instantaneous step function occurs, and the gap in loss becomes so great that all the time and patience never returns profitability.
The US gov't has demonstrable duplicity. You play in their court with their ball and you think you will win? Battles and wars. Win one, lose the other.
Financial anarchy. Paper anything (dollars, stock certs, bonds) will be like most horse bets, good for confetti at best.
Be a bagholder, the grim financial reaper casts a wide net and is searching for self-delusional souls to catch weighted anvils.
Rajesh, thank you for your comment. I thought about that--that JIT might mean more irregular utilization of any given factory. The 20% ambient overcapacity seems odd though.
I'm no finance guru, but it is hard to rationalize this as evidence of inflation. Hell, the previous post was on CPI declines. Today looks like 2-0, advantage deflationistas.
I knew there would be trouble when they allowed gold bugs to learn bigh words.
.............................
If you don't take your profits, someone else will.
"Scam Lovers have been feeding the Crooks, not the UST-lovers."
Crooks will take money from you any way you wish.
Rajesh - I was referring to the few years immediately after WWII. Fear of the hyperinflation of that period became so ingrained that it's part of the reason Japan was so slow to attempt to deal with deflation in the 90's.
Jas - think of yourself in Sebastian's terms. The equity bulls have spent the past 10 years fighting a bear market and getting killed because they couldn't conceive of a bear market after the 80's and 90's. You're going to spend the next 10 years fighting a bear market in bonds and getting killed because you can't conceive of yourself as possibly being wrong. And fyi, I'm not American, so think of something else other than your usual moronic insults.
and a zero interest rate policy only makes the problem worse. When will these morons learn! At low rates assets can be kept in play much longer leading to continued over production and falling prices. Massive wealth transfer from savers (the one group that can prudentially spend) to dead beat borrowers. Its not only zombie banks but zombie borrowers. Much better to get the liquidation out of the way quick.
check out this story in WAPO
http://www.washingtonpost.com/wp-dyn/content/article/2009/04/14/AR200904...
Family that bought a home for 517,000 that is currently worth 367,000 but they are still making payments on it. Husband took a pay cut of 10% and the family finds itself strapped but still making payments on the house. Wonder what happens with the next 10% cut to the mortgage payment.
"Dopes are known for making........"
........flaming comments incessantly enough to warrant them being tuned out by even the very people in the choir.
- - - - -
Black Ranch
--
When it comes to taxation BBAD are thoroughly and maximally victimized by propaganda. That is where Crooks make the most money (by not paying high taxes). When income tax was first levied less than top 1% paid all the taxes. And there were no payroll taxes.
Limbaugh dopes are the worst in that department.
Jas
"The U.S. economy won't "just bounce out and come back" from the current recession, Wal-Mart Stores Inc. Chief Executive Officer Mike Duke said in an interview on NBC's Today show. "
------
"In talking to our customers all across the country, I think there is still a lot of stress," Duke said. "It's not a V recession, where we'll just bounce out and come back. This is one that is going to take a sustained change in the way that families live."
http://www.bloomberg.com/apps/news?pid=20601087&sid=ac61_p3Y5hGU&refer=home
From the guy who actually sees real numbers in nearly every consumption category.
Welcome to the preparedness club, Comrade Scott!
If you are already a sharpshooter, awesome. If not, consider attending training here: cheap ($80), good., and quick (one weekend)
http://www.appleseedinfo.org/
I'm a city slicker and did not know how to shoot, so my son and I went two months ago and have been practicing ever since. Good clean fun. We went from scoring low to 'Expert,' and will be ready to battle the hordes if it comes to that.
peasant wrote on Wed, 04/15/2009 - 7:47am.
"The teabaggers, just like Code Pink are impotent and uninformed. The ruling elite are laughing at them"
Disagree. The protests aren't as important in affecting the PTB right now as they are in getting the masses psychologically aware of problems, showing that a small and growing number of people are not happy. Incite a riot in the masses and the PTB will notice. Also, your argument implies doing nothing is much more effective.
Agreed peasant.
Comrade Kristina is one of the resident whiner liberals. Her brain has been fried by incessant "dope" smoking, and her liberal idoctrination. I think her only hope is that Ken Cooper gets his post filter working again, so she can once again protect herself from the real world.
Flaminia wrote on Wed, 04/15/2009 - 8:14am.
What I find interesting is the gradual taper downward of the peak capacity utilization. The peaks are now about 9% lower than the peaks in the late 1960s. Given the advent of just-in-time processes, this surprises me. I would expect redundant factories to be eliminated altogether. Can anyone knowledgeable like Dryfly or EHP explain why this is?
Short answer; Fully amortized capital equipment. If you have a low cost basis for much of your capacity then it is very inexpensive to hold on to "excess" capacity so that you are positioned to respond to JIT and other customer driven requirements.
Nice ad hominem Guest, but you apparently skipped my reply to peasant as it wouldn't suit your meme...
--
Exposing Crooks is OK and exposing dopes is not?
Sorry is dopes are offended by exposure of their dopiness.
Jas
Pacman wrote on Wed, 04/15/2009 - 8:08am.
No, it will one of those teenage prostitute humping tee-vee reverends declaring "Ah greet yeew in the nayum of our Lorud and Saveeyor Cheesus Chraiys. Today, mah sehcond cu-sin General Ted Buck from Texas D-Fens laa-unchhed Lord All-Maahty Nuhkes ah-gainst those eevil libruls and homos in Nehw Yorrk and Caa-lifornia! Hallelujah! Praiihshe thah Lorrrrd!"
Well, if anyone was doubting that you are ass, you've managed to make it perfectly clear now.
I don't think the bond market was particularly fond of the Treasury calling some bonds.
Thanks Rob. The Atlantic Monthly recently ran an interesting article about the cost of shutting down a Ford assembly plant outside of Atlanta. The thing that got my attention was the heating cost for the idle factory. According to the article, the cost of keeping the temperature above freezing (in order to preserve the fire sprinklers) ran as much as $500,000 a month. Amazing.
"Well, if anyone was doubting that you are ass, you've managed to make it perfectly clear now."
+10
- - - - -
Black Ranch
Kristina, I participated in the late February tea party here in San Diego. I'm no Bubba.
No, we tea party folks see ourselves as the reincarnation of the Founders. We want to return our country to its founding roots, and we are now beginning to attempt such.
Belittle us all you want. Just make sure when we say, 'Bring up the ammo, Dear' that you move smartly.
From my Zacks.com post on the subject (uses CR's graph):
Turning to CU, things don't look any better. The country is now operating at 69.3% of capacity. This is the lowest level since records of it started being kept in 1967. The history of CU is shown in the graph below (larger version available at http://www.calculatedriskblog.com/). As the chart shows, 80% CU is about normal, and at least in recent years a reading of 85% represented boom times. It has occasionally dipped below 75% towards the end of nasty recessions. The only pullback in CU that was remotely comparable to this episode was the early 80's downturn, although the slope of the decline was worse in the mid 70's recession, it started from a much higher level. If 85% is a boom, and 80% is normal, 75% is a severe recession…What does under 70% mean? The term that springs to mind also has a medical context and is often treated with Prozac.
--
Crooks and dopes are two sides of the same coin. Crooks exist because they are fully supported by dopes, especially, voter-taxpayer-Scam-loving dopes.
Sorry if the naked truth offends people.
Jas
Comrade Dope, you can see yourselves any way you wish, the Oligarchy is still laughing at you...the same way they laugh at Code Pink, two sides to the same coin in their eyes...What if Code Pink could have asked relevant questions when they busted into the Institutional Investors forum? What if they had actually understood what a CDS is and how they've been used to steal trillions of dollars from taxpayers? Uninformed protest is pointless and only serves to amuse our keepers is my point...
Got to hand it to India, they dumped their dopes on us.
being a completely crooked moron I, uh, oh, I forget
Some foolish mariners like riding out epic storms in the deep, with albatross profoundly about the neck (black swan if you prefer).
The wise anchor in the safest harbor, batten down the hatches, and pay exquisite attention to every minute detail of maintaining sea worthiness. Good navigators never venture their capital, lives, and crew upon a sea full of peril. Wait rather for calm, predictable seas to continue durable, non-speculative commerce.
Some bond traders show the insanity of surfers moving into large hungry predator water, rife with reef, in a Cat 5 hurricane.
And then they congratulate themselves on their wary, purchase power protective "investing".
Madoff gave fine returns until he didn't. For decades. Time to understand what is real.
IIRC my washer/dryer set was designed in NZ and made in Ohio.
.
As for inflation, I'm certainly not seeing anything remotely like that here, everything is still in 'falling with style' mode.
Anonymous (aren't these types aways Anon?) said:
"Empire State shows great result today. But hey, we will report only negative news, right??? "
Bloomberg says,
April 15 (Bloomberg) -- Manufacturing in the New York region contracted this month the least since September and the outlook for the next six months improved for a second time.
Yeah, that's just great. Keep the great times going and we'll be . . . broke.
Tax Day Becomes Protest Day
How the tea parties could change American politics.
http://online.wsj.com/article/SB123975867505519363.html?mod=googlenews_wsj
Today American taxpayers in more than 300 locations in all 50 states will hold rallies -- dubbed "tea parties" -- to protest higher taxes and out-of-control government spending. There is no political party behind these rallies, no grand right-wing conspiracy, not even a 501(c) group like MoveOn.org
Likewise, I spoke to an organizer for the Knoxville tea party who said that no "professional politicians" were going to be allowed to speak, and he made a big point of saying that the protest wasn't an anti-Obama protest, it was an anti-establishment protest. I've heard similar things from tea-party organizers in other cities, too. Though critics will probably try to write the tea parties off as partisan publicity stunts, they're really a post-partisan expression of outrage.
Yay, I am up big in the market.
-------
http://www.afterthecrash.net - After the Crash, a blog shared by the CR Commenting Community. Hoopajoop on over.
"What if they had actually understood what a CDS is and how they've been used to steal trillions of dollars from taxpayers?"
You're assuming a lot. How do you know protesters don't understand? Some hick on a radio in south Florida doesn't. So what. Who said that protesting in "tea party" fashion is 100% exclusively about your income tax bracket? This issue is bigger than you are making it, and for that reason I disagree with you.
--
Dopes never cease to show their true colors. Let us face the facts--this blog seems to be loaded with BBAD and my exposing them by examples after examples isn't very popular. Deflation and USTs are areas of mass dopiness among BBAD.
Jas
Flaminia,
Obviously it is a lot more complex than I portrayed so we need to wait for EHP and dryfly to speak with authority. My background is aviation so I'm well familiar with the cost of idling aircraft. Look at the google map of the "Mojave Airport, CA" for an eye opening indicator.
"so I'd guess (not being a historian) that the VE day downturn in IP was simply going from wartime economy to "normal" economy whereas this time it's going from bubble to "normal""
Back then there was the option to send women to the kitchen and vets to college, and the destruction of Europe and Japan's economy opened markets for our exports like never before. No such luck this time.
@ peasant wrote on Wed, 04/15/2009 - 10:08am.
RE: Treasury calling bonds
Please try this link. It's not that big a deal after all.
The Link
Jas, I look to history to help me sort things out, including deflation vs. inflation.
I read an article a few days ago (in Slate?) that cleanly and clearly laid out why today's situation is more akin to Weimar Germany than Lesser Depression U.S.A. That article pointed me to this, which I will read over the next week or so:
http://www.mises.org/resources/4016
I still see deflation followed by inflation. And, I admit that I find deflation and inflation confusing, as prices have a monetary/credit component and a supply and demand component.
Until I find a better solution, I am happy to rely upon my long-term buy of gold and silver and gold mining stocks to protect my wealth for what I see as the inevitable post-deflation inflation.
Comrade Kristina (member) wrote on Wed, 04/15/2009 - 8:33am.
Nice ad hominem Guest, but you apparently skipped my reply to peasant as it wouldn't suit your meme...
Ah, no. My intent was to point out:
1. That your world view is likely affected by substance abuse and radical leftism, and
2. The fact that you don't like to see any opinion that disagrees with your own.
"Porn and hollywood movies will save us, right? "
If I'm not mistaken, the gaming industry pulls down more than Hollywood, and games are harder to pirate. Don't know about porn....at least not the business aspects
Cinco-X (member) wrote on Wed, 04/15/2009 - 8:54am.
"so I'd guess (not being a historian) that the VE day downturn in IP was simply going from wartime economy to "normal" economy whereas this time it's going from bubble to "normal""
Back then there was the option to send women to the kitchen and vets to college, and the destruction of Europe and Japan's economy opened markets for our exports like never before. No such luck this time.
Wait until BHO starts bringing home the Guardsmen to no jobs.
@Full Stop,
From dismal.com -- http://www.economy.com/dismal/pro/blog_main.asp?m=4&d=15&y=2009&cid=1142...
The contraction in manufacturing moderated in April, adding to signs that the worst declines in real GDP are behind us. A large inventory drawdown in the first three months of this year should boost industrial production in the second half. Manufacturing's further recovery will depend on government efforts to improve credit flows, repair confide...
There is too much capacity worldwide, a situation which has been building for years. It's well shown in the CU chart here, but it could be applied to any country. The auto industry is the most obvious example.
Cool foul mouth guy, walstreetpro2, gets fired up again.
oops i made a hell of a big mess send me your unwanted chinese plastic or pottery
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=AFFm3yEXOok
--------------------------------------------------------------------------
Learn the 7TH Amendment maggot! That's how you restrain the government.
Red Beckman - Fully Informed Jury
http://video.google.com/videoplay?docid=7385583011526915030&hl=en
This is just getting stupid - the Fed continues to support the cronies will the economy falls out the bottom. Bernanke has misdiagnosed the problem - was wrong about it all along - and will send the whole US down the tubes in his prideful stubborness.
The economy won't see any spending recovery until people want to buy things. Right now, I don't want to. Don't need a car. Won't buy a house until prices get down. Don't need Chinese junk.
Investment won't return until people can trust the people they are investing with. Right now, I don't trust them. Don't think stocks will rise. Don't think my 401K is a solid thing. Know the bankers are crooked.
Instead of fixing these issues, Bernanke has actually made them worse. He has conveyed the message that the government supports corrupt bank management; he has tried to slow price correction; he has made it obvious that the crunch will fall on manufacturers, local governments and individuals. Wrong, wrong, wrong.
peasant, I am saying the issue is bigger than what the teabaggers are making it, so I'm not sure what you are disagreeing with. Perhaps it is just the area I live in but the teabaggers here (which I have a hard time keeping a straight face saying") are of the rabid, drooling wing nut variety. Signs such as "AntiChrist and Socialism" don't really give them a whole lot of credence with sane people. Of course there are not too many sane people in this area anyway so I shouldn't be totally surprised I suppose.
Anonymoussses wrote on Wed, 04/15/2009 - 8:51am.
Tax Day Becomes Protest Day
How the tea parties could change American politics.
http://online.wsj.com/article/SB123975867505519363.html?mod=googlenews_wsj
Today American taxpayers in more than 300 locations in all 50 states will hold rallies -- dubbed "tea parties" -- to protest higher taxes and out-of-control government spending. There is no political party behind these rallies, no grand right-wing conspiracy, not even a 501(c) group like MoveOn.org
Likewise, I spoke to an organizer for the Knoxville tea party who said that no "professional politicians" were going to be allowed to speak, and he made a big point of saying that the protest wasn't an anti-Obama protest, it was an anti-establishment protest. I've heard similar things from tea-party organizers in other cities, too. Though critics will probably try to write the tea parties off as partisan publicity stunts, they're really a post-partisan expression of outrage.
Quick! Close your eyes Comrade Kristina! Don't look! Just keep repeating after me, "it's all a useless right-wing stunt"...
Given that much infrastructure is built with borrowed money - excess capacity is not a positive thing for profits in the long-run.
Oh my...the name calling is getting pretty harsh! CK, that is a sign you're landing blows. The partisan trolling on here seems to have been on the increase of late...the reliable 25% is nice, but their masters are starting to get really nervous.
Tom Stone: actually, I took a forest rat out in early march (in a rather expensive way: with the front end of a German car!) I don't care so much for roadkill, because you can get a lot of bruising and internal damage. I like the idea of something I can drop and immediately bleed. If I had the time or patience, I would take a good friend who hunts my land already up on his offer to teach me to use a bow. Ideally, I'd figure out how to knock them down with out killing them and then bleed them out (best for consumption).
Comrade Dope JG - I am neither a sharp-shooter nor a city slicker...I had the impression you were in the greater SD area and had other firearms experience? Well, in any case, I grew up learning to shoot using a nice Winchester .22 and when I got old enough, an M-1 Garand (Springfield Armory). I gave some thought to getting the .30-06 chambered 700 series, for nostalgia's sake, but consensus seems to be the .308 is more accurate. My old man has a loading setup, so I'm not so concerned with costs. The milspec stainless version was very appealing, and probably more accurate, but for a whopping $600, to have a nice synthetic stock and the 26" barrel...well,there you go. I really am on the fence about it...there are an increasing number of local farmers who will sell you shares in a cow - or a whole cow - and local abattoirs to process for you, so that a big freezer is really all you need. I quit hunting largely because I really find the dressing to be too big a PITA.
Imports/Exports were a tiny fraction of economy. Import/Export expansion was not the reason for American economic power. Australia, Africa, Latin America , Iberia, Turkey, India escaped WWII destruction, how come they didn't become world powers?
America was great because we work hard and at one time we let the middle class take care of itself.
Blaming American Victory for our problems is wrong headed.
I don't know if this has been posted yet, but according to a headline article on CNNMoney.com, 43% of taxpayers ("units") pay no fed. income tax?
Is that true? That % seems really high.
Wally,
+1
.............................
If you don't take your profits, someone else will.
purple wrote on Wed, 04/15/2009 - 9:00am.
Given that much infrastructure is built with borrowed money - excess capacity is not a positive thing for profits in the long-run.
What makes you think that? Look at the AvTF and HTF balances.
inflation deflation unusual gold perspective
http://www.professorfekete.com/articles/AEFCritiqueQuantityTheoryOfMoney...
Scott, the sad part is I'm not trying to land blows. I'm simply pointing out the obvious. The Oligarchy/Kleptocracy couldn't care less about "teabagging", they've already stolen all the money...
"the f'in teabaggers are out in full force today"
Teabaggers, or "Teabaggers"?
Flaminia,
Is this name from a 60's Lancia Flaminia, or am I completely off base ?
There is too much capacity worldwide, a situation which has been building for years. - purple
.
Bingo. Give that poster a cigar or coconut, according to choice. Global overcapacity, rising much faster than population. Obviously, we must make birth control illegal.
psychodave,
"When the Treasury "calls" a bond, it stops paying interest on the date of the call, before the maturity date."
IMO, this sets a bad example. Ben B is going into the market to buy bonds for cash while the Treasury is (somewhat arbitrarily) deciding to stop paying on some bonds. I understand that they are trying to reduce borrowing costs, but they are trying to reduce borrowing costs so they can pile on more debt. The U.S. is trying to be a price maker (not price taker) in bonds while begging for more money.
ONLY BLOOD WILL CONQUER MONEY.
Damn, Jas, that's good.
Outsider, I've seen those numbers as well but can't verify the accuracy. Considering a full 50% of taxpayers in this country make less than 32K per year I suppose it could be close to the truth although they still pay taxes, I know I do.
I met a foolish soul once. He had unmodest pride in foresight, created his own cloud of fabled good judgment. I noticed he had adopted the language of his country's cruel conqueror. He had left his forefather's faiths for secular humanism. He had fallen in love with promissory notes of that same powerful force which had dislodged him from his village. He had even washed ashore that country turning back on kin and homeland.
He could no longer farm or feed himself except by using the scrip won in a gambling pit.
A little boastful and not a little proud.
But wise?
CK - Of course, that's income tax, not payroll tax -- payroll tax kills us self employed people.
But still. Who is going to pay all these trillions in bailouts if 43% of the country isn't even paying in?
Amazing.
AC,
You seem convinced inflation is coming, at least by 2012.
How do you see price inflation coming under the current employment climate? Please don't just say "M3"
Kristina, you have your bond world. Me, I made my millions shorting the stock market.
You find CDSs important. I find household debt to GDP important.
We agree that we have a big, interrelated problem, unpayable debt. I am a member of the rabble attempting to awaken fellow rabble.
I don't care if elites laugh at me. In fact, I take it as a badge of honor.
I bet against the stock market and won. I am now betting against the elites, and I think I will win, again.
I enjoy being the underdog when I have truth and fellow rabble on my side.
"I wonder how many people are using the last of their available credit to purchase arms & ammo?, especially in the bible belt."
I'm in the liberal NE, and a woman that I work with, who is also responsible for her gun club's recruitment told me that they'd had more folks joining the NRA in the last 3.5 months than they had all of last year. There's one data point.
Rick Santelli Father of the Tea Parties Vs. Steve Leisman Smackdown 4/13/09
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=yUAmviwQO3M
--------------------------------------------------------------------------
Learn the 7TH Amendment maggot! That's how you restrain the government.
Red Beckman - Fully Informed Jury
http://video.google.com/videoplay?docid=7385583011526915030&hl=en
"peasant, I am saying the issue is bigger than what the teabaggers are making it"
I'm saying you are assuming you know 100% why everyone at every tea party in America is protesting and that they are stupid for protesting. But you don't know.
I'm sorry Jas, what does BBAD stand for? "Born Bred And Dope"?
Or is that a question only a dope would ask?
wally wrote on Wed, 04/15/2009 - 11:58am.
This is just getting stupid - the Fed continues to support the cronies will the economy falls out the bottom. Bernanke has misdiagnosed the problem - was wrong about it all along - and will send the whole US down the tubes in his prideful stubborness.
[...]
Instead of fixing these issues, Bernanke has actually made them worse. He has conveyed the message that the government supports corrupt bank management; he has tried to slow price correction; he has made it obvious that the crunch will fall on manufacturers, local governments and individuals. Wrong, wrong, wrong.
Quoted for truth.
+1
--
When 99%+ dopes are confident of inflation I feel very secure in my forecast of deflation based on destruction of private debt.
It is the debt, stupid!
Jas
"I'm thinkin' a Palin/Huckabee ticket in 2012. "
Palin doesn't need Huckabee; his +'s are the same as her's, and his -'s, well they're -'s.
jg -- Any success in Maine?
"Freddie Mac has vacancies for a chief executive, a chief operating officer and a chief financial officer. At Fannie, there are openings for a general counsel, a chief risk officer and a chief technology officer. Both have many unfilled slots for senior vice presidents and other top positions."
http://www.nytimes.com/2009/04/15/business/economy/15fannie.html?ref=tod...
Who says there are no jobs out there?
peasant, I'm not saying any such thing, odds are in favor that some of these people do understand the problems but I would guess a majority of them don't and are just along for the ride. When your entire government is owned and operated by the banksters I'm curious as to what "protesting" with teabags will accomplish? Will GS issue a mea culpa and dissolve themselves? I'm thinking not...
In a week or two the teabaggers will be realize they accomplished nothing except providing each other with some sexual pleasure....either rise up and Revolt (which should have been done during the Bush years) or sit down and shut up...teabaggers will find out what the extreme left has, protest amount to ZERO!
I find it hard to believe that the kleptocracy is concerned about polite protests. I'm sure they are happy to see such a non-violent outlet that is highly unlikely to progress along the road to revolution. I'm waiting for a major sponsor and a reality show, just to put that de-rigueur corporatist spin on it that's so popular with the mobs these days.
"
"Dopes are known for making........"
........flaming comments incessantly enough to warrant them being tuned out by even the very people in the choir.
- - - - -
Black Star Ranch
"
Well said-
What about sales tax, property tax, gas tax, SS taxes and the rest of the myriad of hundreds of other taxes and fees we pay the the various governments? What, they don't count as taxes. We are not that stupid syndicated media.
--------------------------------------------------------------------------
Learn the 7TH Amendment maggot! That's how you restrain the government.
Red Beckman - Fully Informed Jury
http://video.google.com/videoplay?docid=7385583011526915030&hl=en
I still say the best protest is to pay off your debts and stop consuming. Do what Black Star Ranch did, and many others. Like mp says, get prepared.
yep yep crispy...which is why I compare Code Pink and teabaggers...same level of impotence. Remember the millions that protested going into Iraq? How'd that work out? Maybe if they had teabags we wouldn't have invaded..BWAHAHAHAHAHA
If we are witnessing price deflation, how come my Comcast bill went up?
Price deflation, my ass.
"There is too much capacity worldwide"
-----------
Is there?
or is there too much money in too few hands?
Scott, I've never dressed an animal, so I may wake up and find it a PITA, too.
My firearms experience was limited to carrying a sidearm in the Navy, and keeping qualified via 10 shots per year. Good thing that Navy officers have real men -- Gunners Mates, SEALs, and Marines -- to do the shooting!
--
BBAD = born-and-bred AMERICAN dope. The key word is American because Americans are uniquely doped based on triumphalism and the Nazi-like ideology of Americanism (e.g., I am better because I am an American, or America is a force for good in the world, etc., etc.).
A BBAD has a total lack of skepticism and humility.
Jas
In actuality, The Chicago Tea Party protectors will remember to vote all incumbents out come November. I here them chanting things like this all the time.
--------------------------------------------------------------------------
Learn the 7TH Amendment maggot! That's how you restrain the government.
Red Beckman - Fully Informed Jury
http://video.google.com/videoplay?docid=7385583011526915030&hl=en
"There is too much capacity worldwide"
-----------
Is there?
or is there too much money in too few hands?
Why can't it be both?
"There is too much capacity worldwide, a situation which has been building for years. It's well shown in the CU chart here, but it could be applied to any country. The auto industry is the most obvious example."
Just look at China. In reality, they've screwed the pooch for all of us. AT this point in time, it makes no sense for anyone to invest in capital since they can't compete with the Chinese, but without it, there's no way to continue paying for Chinese goods.
An anecdotal data point from Northeast Arkansas" Spoke with a farmer this weekend. He sees some utility in growing a small amount of some "barter" crops such as tobacco. I hadn't realized it till this past year but my gunsmithing skills and tools are going to at least help keep my wife and I fed by barter if nothing else. Doesn't hurt to be distantly married into an extended family of large farmers either. I've certainly been worried about job loss as have many others.
Coffeeshop talk I'm hearing second hand is that there's more of a blind eye being turned to extra-legal money making in some municipalities lately. Not that the place I'm thinking about ever had a reputation for going after shady activities much in the past either.
A delivery driver for a food wholesaler here has already been making inquiries with farmers in Kentucky to develop supply sources for a venture of his own. Uh .. I'm kinda interested in being a customer maybe...
Confession: I was the venture capitalist in this matter. Gave him the idea and promised some seed money...
Another data point I'm looking for is the rebirth of "fix-it" shops in this area. The mend and make-do economy so to speak. How the poor and declasse middle class will be getting by. So far just one small motor repair shop has opened nearby.
But what do I know? I'm just a librul hiding out in the belly of the belly of the beast so to speak.
LOL!!!
Need to replace another keyboard!
DD
Jas is in Tehachipi, right?
Is there anything there aside ffrom prisons?
Wouldn't it be a hoot if he's doing 10-20 in the slammer, scamming us all the while?
The Oligarchy/Kleptocracy couldn't care less about "teabagging", they've already stolen all the money...
Nonsense - they very much care: they have stolen it, and they are now afraid of clawbacks via tax reforms - higher marginal rates, and more importantly, loophole closures, that result in dramatically increased effective tax rates for the top 1%. That is precisely what the Tea-bagger astro-turfing is all about: making sure the effective tax rate on the oligarchs remains low. They are very well aware of how unpopular the bailouts are with J6P and they want to channel that populist rage against any kind of tax reform. Funny how none of this got started publicly until Obama and Geithner had replaced Bush and Paulson, despite the fact that the policy has remained more or less unchanged.
And, FWIW, it is worth arguing with trolls on the internet - you won't persuade them, but you may persuade the 461 (as of this posting) lurkers.
Cheers!
We are all Slumdog Millionaires now.
Industrial Production Declines Sharply in March
Don't worry, be happy : Obama sees 'glimmers of hope' in the economy...(by CalculatedRisk on 4/10/2009 01:32:00 PM)
Outsider, my wife returned last night, and loved Maine.
Now, it is wrestling over Western Maine hilltop retreat vs. Downeast coastal retreat.
Looks promising so far.
Good point Scott, although I don't see that 2 trillion they shoved out the Fed window coming back anytime soon, we still don't even know who they gave it to.
American atruism...
A poison that tastes great and goes down easy.
Bottoms up Jas.
I would guess a majority of them don't and are just along for the ride.
Again, your guessing. How good, how important, and how relevant are your guesses? To your point that a majority are along for the ride, that is true of everyone. In society there are leaders and followers. Everyone cannot be a leader.
When your entire government is owned and operated by the banksters I'm curious as to what "protesting" with teabags will accomplish?
Again your implying doing nothing is a better option. The teabags are symbolic of the Boston Tea Party. They are a means at propaganda for the protesters to make the connection in spectators minds between the American Revolution and the period we are entering now. Protesters are Americans out to counter the propaganda constantly rolled out by the government and banksters. Revolutions don't happen overnight. It's a process. Step one is making people aware.
There were only a very few treasury bonds ever issued callable. They were issued during very high interest rate periods. Most of them expired without being called. I have wondered for years why they weren't called earlier.
No treasury bonds issued in the past 15+ years have been callable.
Or perhaps Jas Patel runs a seedy motel in Tehachipi, where they won't leave the remote control for the tv in the room, you have to ask for it at the front desk.
Wow, so per Comrade Scott, Wingnuts for a Teabaggy Society is a false front that works to avoid increased tax rates on the rich. I love it. It's so outrageously cynical that it must be true. Someone call Gene Hackman, he always goes for these kinds of scripts.
Whilst we argue the current malaise, new realities are being fomented. It should be interesting. We're always ten realities behind.
Cinco-X,
Why would we want to pay for Chinese goods? Just wait a bit and they'll give us the goods just to make space for the new stuff that their factories are making. You have to remember they are more desperate to keep their people employed than we are to have a new big-screen T.V.
Headline on MartketWatch.Com . . . Not a pretty picture . . .
April 15 2009 12:22 P.M. ET
Obama takes on tea-baggers
"Why can't it be both?"
---------
it could be but I know overcapacity is not my problem.
I'm not over-burdened with cars, houses and dancing girls.
I realized yesterday that "overcapacity", like Schumpeter, is a misleading characterization weighted towards the "capitalist pig" version of events.
Jas says:
What I like the most about the USTs is that born-and-bred American dopes despise them!
I have the best record in the world as far as USTs are concerned. I made a bundle in the 115P-142C strangle that I posted here few months back and 110P-135C strangle I added later. The premiums on those options have collapsed recently. I am not a part-time dope that think that they are investing when they are feeding the crooks.
So, Jas, for those of us who might be interested in USTs, what is your recommended approach now? I don't understand a "strangle" or other details, so if you can explain at a lower level than that, please do, or provide links.
Thanks.
Hmmm peasant, it appears they are there to participate in the propoganda not counter it. The fact is the game has been tilted in favor of the top five percent for a very long time while the rest of us simply fall further behind and work harder for less. When the bottom fell out, they gave us cheap and easy credit to make up for our lack of earning power while they simultaneously outsourced as many jobs as possible to third world shitholes...The idea that American workers could compete in the global economy was ludicrous on its face, and it still is.
When 99%+ dopes are confident of inflation I feel very secure in my forecast of deflation based on destruction of private debt.
-------------------------
Beg to differ on foodstuff and agricultural products. In a year if not sooner you will see price inflation if the current climate continues.
"flaming comments incessantly enough to warrant them being tuned out by even the very people in the choir."
Oh my gosh golly, don't get your fancy dress all dirty when you'll start that next American revolution. But just maybe you should first practise with paper bags...
I was thinking about the LA/Long Beach port numbers and the uptick. It occured to me that the uptick is inventory replenishment. We do not make certain things, like toothpaste, dogfood etc. So we will continue importing.
I think Singapores numbers were the big deal. The east is crashing.
http://afterthecrash.net - Home of the Doomer Story Portal and Other Stuff
Arbitrage Macht Frei wrote on Wed, 04/15/2009 - 9:18am.
Jas is in Tehachipi, right?
Is there anything there aside ffrom prisons?
Wouldn't it be a hoot if he's doing 10-20 in the slammer, scamming us all the while?
Having once lived in Mojave trust me, living in Tehachapi is a prison sentence. Jas is just cranky because he looks out to the southeast and sees hundreds of aircraft parked in the desert spoiling his view.
Checking out to read 'Tappan on Survival.'
Have a good day, all.
Holy hell Morroco Bama, you still pay Comcast?
cancel that crap now, get an antenna and converter box, stop paying that crappy creepy company. I did and I have been doing much more productive things with my time and I am very glad I cancelled.
"Borocco Mama wrote on Wed, 04/15/2009 - 9:14am.
If we are witnessing price deflation, how come my Comcast bill went up?
"
Borocco Mama wrote
Whilst we argue the current malaise, new realities are being fomented.
Dimon in the rough, JPM reports tomorrow morning.
.............................
If you don't take your profits, someone else will.
"Obama takes on tea-baggers"
------------
Looks like the pre-election sex rumors may be true, after all!
Werner wrote on Wed
"Don't worry, be happy : Obama sees 'glimmers of hope' in the economy.."
He was talking about China.
Karl Rove has to be the brains behind this teabaggery...
What happens when the shots heard 'round the world go off @ Lexington-Concord II, because some monkeyboy had to bring his loaded guns?
Teabaggers are voters. Wish I could go today but thankfully I have a job.
Comrade Scott,
You make some good points.
Someone has to pay taxes and the accumulated national debt. The poor and middle class are becoming marginalized in this capacity. Who's left?
The wealthy and corporations will have to feel the sting since they might control the money but they don't control the votes. Politicians will have to spread the tax load or face a backlash.
People protesting is a positive sign for our country regardless of who is pushing the buttons behind the scenes. The button pushers are lighting a fire. Fire is unpredictable.
http://www.balloon-juice.com/?p=19977
Simply mentally replace the phrase "tea party" with "hissy fit" and it really clears things up. For example, the Instapundit's editorial in the WSJ (further proof, no doubt, of the grass roots nature of this event!):
Today American taxpayers in more than 300 locations in all 50 states will hold rallies-dubbed "Hissy fits"-to protest higher taxes and out-of-control government spending. There is no political party behind these rallies, no grand right-wing conspiracy, not even a 501© group like MoveOn.org.
So who's behind the Tax Day hissy fits? Ordinary folks who are using the power of the Internet to organize…
The protests began with bloggers in Seattle, Wash., who organized a demonstration on Feb. 16. As word of this spread, rallies in Denver and Mesa, Ariz., were quickly organized for the next day. Then came CNBC talker Rick Santelli's Feb. 19 "rant heard round the world" in which he called for a "Chicago hissy fit" on July Fourth. The hissy fit moniker stuck, but angry taxpayers weren't willing to wait until July. Soon, hissy fits were appearing in one city after another, drawing at first hundreds, and then thousands, to marches in cities from Orlando to Kansas City to Cincinnati.
I hope that helps you.
Unable to teabag Lafayette Square:
http://www.washingtonpost.com/wp-dyn/content/article/2009/04/15/AR200904...
"Protesters' Plan to Dump Tea Is Prohibited"
..."Protesters, using a rented truck to haul the million tea bags, began unloading their cargo at the park this morning but were told by officials that they didn't have proper permits and must move the tea. They complied with the order but are still considering what to do with the load. "
The definition of insanity is doing the same thing over and over and expecting different results.
How the poor and declasse middle class will be getting by. So far just one small motor repair shop has opened nearby. -Aristophon
Here in Portland 'reduce, reuse, recycle' is the Way. It's not just for 'poor, declasse' anymore.
Seriously, why is less consumption a bad thing? What's wrong with having less stuff, but better quality stuff that's worth repairing, rather than throwing away? How much stuff do we have, that we never even get around to using?
If the American attitude changes, such that we get more saving and less consumption, I see that as a good thing, not cause for doom and gloom.
With virtually no promotion of the Tea party protests by the left wing syndicated media, the establishment will be surprised by the massive participation in the protests. They will ask; How did that happen? The irrelevance of the MSM will become even more apparent that their brainwashing techniques are no longer as affective. Why, Because of the internets.
--------------------------------------------------------------------------
Learn the 7TH Amendment maggot! That's how you restrain the government.
Red Beckman - Fully Informed Jury
http://video.google.com/videoplay?docid=7385583011526915030&hl=en
"he looks out to the southeast and sees hundreds of aircraft"
-----------
Aircraft to the left of me,
Windmills to the right
Here I am
Stuck in the middle with Jas.
I think Singapores numbers were the big deal. The east is crashing.
---------------------------------------------
I thought they exported mainly to the west? the world is crashing!
nova wrote on Wed
"We do not make certain things, like toothpaste, dogfood etc. So we will continue importing. "
I think this is the entire problem with our economy, we dont' make enough 'stuff' that we actually use.
ALERT: mortgage pig formation appearing on the S&P:
http://www.google.com/finance?q=INDEXSP:.INX
Still awaiting right ear down trend.
--
The Zombie Apocalypse begins when U3 hits 15%
I'd like to see how many tea baggers would show up if there wasn't the promise of free food and cheap nasty beer.
And peasant, If you feel the current "protestors" are echoing the actual Boston Tea Party, you're dead wrong.
There is no foundation under their Orwellian rants...
Manufacturing's further recovery will depend on government efforts to improve credit flows, repair confide... "
Right, it's all about credit flows and repairing confidence and was not just a modestly, rather than horribly, bad blip in the series. . .
Much as I hate to say it, MLM, I think you should brush up on Jas' BBAD rants.
"You have to remember they are more desperate to keep their people employed than we are to have a new big-screen T.V. "
You forget most Americans earn their living SELLING that "TV", made abroad. 70 percent of GDP is consumption based...
Yes, the world is crashing, or coming from 110 MPH to 35MPH which is almost as bad.
http://afterthecrash.net - Home of the Doomer Story Portal and Other Stuff
Hmmm peasant, it appears they are there to participate in the propoganda not counter it.
WTF? How is protesting something supporting it?
The fact is the game has been tilted in favor of the top five percent for a very long time while the rest of us simply fall further behind and work harder for less.
A reason to protest
When the bottom fell out, they gave us cheap and easy credit to make up for our lack of earning power while they simultaneously outsourced as many jobs as possible to third world shitholes...
A reason to protest
The idea that American workers could compete in the global economy was ludicrous on its face, and it still is.
A reason to protest
Ron Jeremy to lead teabagging protest in LA. That should be interesting.
"Colonial merchants, some of them smugglers, played a significant role in the protests. Because the Tea Act made legally imported tea cheaper, it threatened to put smugglers of Dutch tea out of business.[42] Legitimate tea importers who had not been named as consignees by the East India Company were also threatened with financial ruin by the Tea Act.[43] Another major concern for merchants was that the Tea Act gave the East India Company a monopoly on the tea trade, and it was feared that this government-created monopoly might be extended in the future to include other goods.[44]"
http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Boston_Tea_Party
Smugglers were behind the Boston Tea Party. They were trying to protect their profit and look what they started. Hello United States of America.
--
Sorry, I don't recommend strangles to anyone other than a seasoned speculator with years of experience. I am NOT here to give investment advice other than to avoid Scams, aka stocks, the primary source of our financial troubles. I do USTs because I have nearly 20 years of experience and a record that would be envy of anyone including Bill Gross. My record in shorting Scams is nowhere near as good. I don't recommend that others short Scams, merely avoiding them is good enough for most.
Jas
"I don't know if this has been posted yet, but according to a headline article on CNNMoney.com, 43% of taxpayers ("units") pay no fed. income tax?
Is that true? That % seems really high. "
When the income tax was first imposed 99% of Americans paid no income tax. Remember that the income tax is only one tax, and the only one that is in any way progressive. For the vast majority of Americans the SS payroll taxes are a bigger issue. those are as regressive as any tax ever devised.
Tupuli (member) wrote on Wed, 04/15/2009 - 9:32am.
ALERT: mortgage pig formation appearing on the S&P:
http://www.google.com/finance?q=INDEXSP:.INX
Still awaiting right ear down trend.
CRVIX has dilated to 499. Something is happening.
This is totally OT, but in case this hasn't been posted, this basically sums up why I believe stocks will eventually go back to being viewed as yield instruments. Millions of workers my age have seen their retirement money wasted on investing in stocks, and at an estimated dividend yield of 2.6% today, the S&P is no bargain. Companies like CSCO who generate tons of cash but pay none of it out to their shareholders are worth nothing to a common shareholder, IMHO. Maybe they are worth something if you can buy control and force them to release the cash, but as a minority shareholder with no power, I wouldn't pay a dime for a stock like that.
Working in the bond market, I have a different view on the world, but give me an investment that eventually returns at least some of my cash anyday. Relying on the greater fool doesn't seem like a decent strategy.
http://www.bloomberg.com/apps/news?pid=newsarchive&sid=aSg6DWkihxUw
Jas,
Could you explain your thesis re. deflation vs. inflation? I'm genuinely interested.
I'm admittedly a BBAD! But here's why I think inflation is likely:
1. There has been massive asset deflation. Americans are stuck with losses, causing an economic collapse.
2. There is an unwillingness to accept the losses, spread the pain around and a belief in the "American Dream" forever.
The way out therefore, is to inflate our way out of the problem to the point where a homeowner's losses are somewhat capped. This will eventually lead to (in theory) a recovery.
The indicators that this is what is going on is the taking on of losses by the Fed, the quantitative easing and debt-financed stimulus spending, all adding up to around $8T.
If I recall correctly, losses in the housing market and ensuing losses in other sectors were estimated to be around 4-5T.
Would this not be inflationary? What am I missing?
Thanks!
peasant wrote on Wed, 04/15/2009 - 9:07am.
"peasant, I am saying the issue is bigger than what the teabaggers are making it"
I'm saying you are assuming you know 100% why everyone at every tea party in America is protesting and that they are stupid for protesting. But you don't know.
Oooh, oooh, let me take a WAG!!
Area man: Things sure have been tough for the last 18 months, whom should I blame?
Area woman: I know, who, the man!! The man is always keeping me down, selling me out to those furriners
Area man: Who's currently the man? I don't know because my hoover blankets are from December 07 so I'm not really up to speed
Area agent provocateur: Some n***** who worships Baal instead of the baby jeebus, let's walk around with these semi-handmade signs I've conveniently requisitioned spontaneously on the prescribed date and time.
Area man & woman: Sure, especially if you float us a double sawbuck each, most we'll make in a month!!
But that is not the stated purpose of these tea parties is my freakin point peasant. THe stated purpose is "Taxed enough Already" from what I've seen and read. Sorry, but did they think the tax fairy was going to come and pay off the massive debt spending that has been going on for decades? Someone has to pay for drunken party Wallstreet and Washington has been having. In the meantime you have "teaparties" where people are protesting paying their taxes while the top five percent pay their accountants to be sure they pay next to nothing...
Uh, whatever you say...
Comrade Alexei Mikhailovich wrote on Wed, 04/15/2009 - 12:40pm.
Oooh, oooh, let me take a WAG!!
Epic.
"Relying on the greater fool doesn't seem like a decent strategy."
----------------
It's a great strategy as long as there's another country you can corral into the scam.
Like.... China.
And then India....
Comrade Alexei, you owe me a keyboard...
So, the proles are told for 8 long years that taxes are bad, and government giveaways in the guise of $600 checks only emphasizes that "Yes, Virginia-therre is a money tree"
And now the same people that brought you that malarkey, are behind tax protests.
It's a beautiful thing...
..."Protesters, using a rented truck to haul the million tea bags, began unloading their cargo at the park this morning but were told by officials that they didn't have proper permits and must move the tea. They complied with the order but are still considering what to do with the load. "
These are the people who will spark a revolution? People who comply with orders to cease their protest or they'll get a ticket?
Pathetic. Totally pathetic.
--
I am sorry that I can't reply, or explain, hundred times. No, I don't have a link to my views on why deflation is unavoidable. In short, I see no way to boost the aggregate demand when households can't borrow to spend as they were able to for soooooooooo long.
Also, I don't engage in debates about inflation in some parts of consumption as long as the aggregate is deflationary.
Sorry.
Jas
"THe stated purpose is "Taxed enough Already""
Independent groups organizing protests separately in every state at different times and different places all have the same motto. Incredible. What is their website?
Congress shall make no law respecting an establishment of religion, or prohibiting the free exercise thereof; or abridging the freedom of speech, or of the press; or the right of the people peaceably to assemble, and to petition the government for a redress of grievances.
Why do you have such a problem with people expressing their constitutional rights?
--
Chinese are smarter than BBAD. That is today's reality. It wasn't the case 50 years ago or even 25 years ago.
Jas
Not only does Jas believe in U.S. Government financial instruments of mass delusion, he's partial to Swiss ones as well.
It's hard to tell which country is in deeper kimchee?
peasant, your strawman is on fire. I have no problem with it, they can teabag to their hearts content if they so wish. It doesn't mean it will accomplish anything nor does it mean the actual issues are being addressed. Heck, maybe next week they can reenact Paul Revere's ride, that should be interesting and entertaining...
If these teabaggers had lead the protest in the 1770s, we'd be bowing to Elizabeth Windsor and Gordon Brown.
Kristina sure is getting the wrong impression of protesters! Some of us have no debt but fight the fight because of our children. Ease up with your assessment. Your wrong today!
CR, we need a new nanny thread. This one has rambled all over the world and back again. Whenever it's convenient for you, of course. No rush.
--
The biggest and the baddest BBAD are Baby Doomers. They were BRED to lead to America's collapse. They were bred to be irremediable dopes.
Jas
This is a white glove tea party. Those ladies and gentleman downtown New York City this morning were EDUMACATED.
@some investor guy (member) wrote on Wed, 04/15/2009 - 12:22pm.
"I have wondered for years why they weren't called earlier."
Thanks for your post. Agree 100% with every syllable.
I'd hoped the link I provided explained it better than I could. However, I fear we have a commentor with an agenda on our hands. Hat off in respect to Comrade Kristina.
for god's sake kristina, think of the children....
Personally, I think it's what being used as a prop for the protests that has eveyone's panties in a wad. Tea is inappropriate. It should be Kool-Aid.
Mass quantities of Kool-Aid should be pured into the Potomac whilst chanting the slogan "We've Had Enough!!"
Get real. The tea bagging protests are a classic agit-prop action to lead attention away from the true crime: wealthy elite in control of government puppets hell bent on executing the greatest looting operation in human history by one group (the top) against another (everybody else). Since people are genuinely pissed offf and the real culprit is too complicated for most to grasp, tea bagging against taxes will suffice.
For now.
Now see Borocco, I could get behind that one...
"I fear we have a commentor with an agenda on our hands"
----------
Yes, the E-ville Right always has an agenda.
The Left is "just good people".
Why do you have such a problem with people expressing their constitutional rights?
Hah! Are you kidding? I have NO problem with this...assemble, march and protest away! I am going to enjoy my constitutional right to mock them! This is some first class entertainment, and I plan to take my video camera down to watch the local trust fund Norquist-ians try to rouse up a popular movement. They aren't even attempting to hide the partisan nature of this gathering: two of the speakers are state GOP officeholders, one former GOP Administration member and all but one of the local GOP party leadership! I'm glad that at least in my locality, they are being honest about the real partisan nature of this "Movement".
Much as I hate to say it, MLM, I think you should brush up on Jas' BBAD rants.
Oh, I know I'm a dope. Jas has explained it to me over and over for what seems like forever now.
However, the data are what the data are:
The general business conditions index climbed 24 points from its March record low, to -14.7. The new orders index shot up 41 points to a reading just below zero, and the shipments index rose 25 points, also reaching a level near zero. The inventories index continued to fall, hitting a record low -36.0.
http://www.newyorkfed.org/survey/empire/empiresurvey_overview.html
My goal is to attempt to be part of the "reality-based community", however small that group may be. When I see data like this, I factor it into my overall outlook (which is still pretty negative, BTW).
--
"BIG" jump in housing market index!
At 14 it is still in HORRIBLE territory but don't tell that to a BBAD.
Jas
Comrad Kristina: You are certainly correct about the "tea-baggery." The only bright side is that if such events developed traction the cognitive dissonance they represent might take the movement to places our corporate masters never intended. One can only hope.
Scone: Nothing wrong with re-cyle, re-use. I'm officially a member of the lower middle class. Economically am accurately described as working class or working poor. The people I work with have been struggling all decade and mostly buy their clothes from Salvation army or Thrift shops. I am looking forward to more repair oriented equipment and supplies because it makes life easier for people in my situation. Of course it would be good for the country if more was made in America and repaired and reused in America.
Thank you Full Stop, that is indeed the message I seem to not be getting across...It is simply another shiny object for the proles to look at in wonder...while the looting continues out of sight...
Of course, they will have to wait for the Kool-Aid shipments to arrive from China.
The rallying cry of the original Boston Tea Party was "No taxation without representation"
Today it's more along the lines of "No taxation without compensation"
NEW POST at Calculated Risk.
Ways to view:
Dead simple, read only interface at: http://users.thelink.net/bobn/CR
CRC-like interface at http://realize.org/cr/crcizer/
Full Blown Interface at http://www.hoocoodanode.org/
For live chat, and the new Mishbot feature, as well as notice of new posts on other blogs, join us in IRC.
To access IRC with firefox, install the chatzilla add-on and go to irc://irc.realize.org:9996/calculatedrisk.
Or set your IRC client for server irc.realize.org port 9996 and /join #calculatedrisk.
Feed back via bobn
Borocco Mama wrote on Wed, 04/15/2009 - 8:36pm.
Ron Jeremy to lead teabagging protest in LA. That should be interesting.
Who knew 'Idiocracy' was a documentary.
"Results 1 – 10 of about 1,109 for tea bag."
.
Just googled 'tea bag' thing in news, got hits as above.
"Mr. Kobayashi is part of a 2,400-member Rural Labor Squad in Japan - urban trainees dispatched to the countryside under a pilot program to put underemployed youth to work tilling Japanese farms."
http://www.nytimes.com/2009/04/15/world/asia/15iht-farmer.html?ref=business
Sending the young and strong to till the land. Work for food program coming soon.
But, as people here have noted, while the powers that be have wound up their golem and set it free, sometimes the golem returns to kill the master.
"They complied with the order but are still considering what to do with the load."
Go home and make some tea?
Jas said:
Sorry, I don't recommend strangles to anyone other than a seasoned speculator with years of experience.
So any general ideas for the very un-seasoned? Or are you going to keep all thisd goodness to your self?
Well Full Stop, that is always a possible unintended consequence. We can hope anyhow...
Former treasury secretary Paul O'Neil:
"So they all took the money. Stop and think about that. What was the purpose of this policy? To deceive the people so that the public would not know which banks were in danger of failing? Why didn't any of the CEO's, claiming not to need the money, have the courage to refuse?" O'Neill said in an e-mail to ABC News. "If banks now claim they want to return the money because they don't need it, why do they have to raise new capital to replace the money from we the people in order to repay the government?"
O'Neill said that unfortunately the government is permitted to practice a policy of deception for the greater good of the society.
"Is the public ever going to have clear facts regarding any of the individual institutions?" he said. "For months I have been calling for a public disclosure of all bank assets by rating class, along with facts showing the face value of so-called toxic assets along with the associated current book keeping value and associated reserve account. The public and members of Congress seem to be accepting of the idea that a handful of people in the administration and the Fed should do all of this in secret."
http://www.ritholtz.com/blog/2009/04/fmr-secy-oneil-tarp-goal-deceive-pu...
I just came back from a teaparty. Santelli is God. Vote Republican 2010 and ever after!
They complied with the order but are still considering what to do with the load.
I have an idea. Long Island.
Many comment persons here have shouted out the bilking of americans for the last 3 years, yet now we have some righteous people who came around slowly but now get it! Why bash them....
Kristina-Your position is one of a bartender who would rather have those protesters at your bar buying another gin and tonic. You go on and on about refinancing a house and the pigmen won't work with you and how frustrating it is, yet you sit from a pulpit and preach about people who want a better life for their children. Who just maybe don't really care what happens to them, they care about thier children. Your position seems selfish. Maybe u need to take a couple days off, get away from the bar where more b/s stories and clueless people hang out than anywhere.
_______________________________________________________________________________________
I emptied my bank account so the bastards can't use it. Being in debt is like diving with great white sharks.
There's a new thread up, so whether this'll ever get read I doubt, but hey:
I don't know if this has been posted yet, but according to a headline article on CNNMoney.com, 43% of taxpayers ("units") pay no fed. income tax? Is that true? That % seems really high.
The Tax Foundation publishes a very detailed study on the tax burden and how it's spread every summer. The latest one, using 2006 IRS data, is at http://www.taxfoundation.org/taxdata/show/250.html .
At a first reading, it seems their numbers state that about 32% of filers with an AGI don't pay any income tax. That's not strictly comparable to the CBO methodology, so apples-to-apples I could see a 43% figure being reasonable. But, as Dirk said, even the Foundation themselves note that these figures are only for federal income tax, which accounts for about 25-30% of total taxes paid and is certainly among the most progressive.
What I think is crazier is the taxes as percentages of AGI that are actually paid across the entire income spectrum. For the top half it only averages 14% of AGI, and even the top 1% - you've gotta have an AGI over $389K to make the cut here, mind - pay only 22.8% of AGI on average, vs. 35% less than 30 years ago. Makes the argument about a 36% vs. 39.6% top marginal rate seem like much ado about nothing, doesn't it?
@Comrade Alexei Mikhailovich
Step 1: Fill in the blanks
Area man: Things sure have been tough for the last ___________, whom should I blame?
Area woman: I know, who, the man!! The man is always keeping me down, selling me out to those ___________
Area man: Who's currently the man? I don't know because my _____________s are from ____________ so I'm not really up to speed
Area agent provocateur: Some ________ who __________s instead of __________s, let's walk around with these semi-handmade signs I've conveniently requisitioned spontaneously on the prescribed date and time.
Area man & woman: Sure, especially if you float us a ______________ each, most we'll make in a ________!!
Step 2: Make sure you have properly obtained your protest permit from The Man
Step 3: Inform the local info-tainers.
Step 4: Wonder why no one gives a rat's ass, unless you block the on freeway on-ramp. But happily spend your __________s on some ___________ and call it a day.
Comrade Kristina:
Thank you Full Stop, that is indeed the message I seem to not be getting across...It is simply another shiny object for the proles to look at in wonder...while the looting continues out of sight...
Agreed. It's just something to co-opt. a right wing version of an Obama head poster, sweet. 'Cause the W lost his man-crush authority and now we're all supposed to bust on the "Great Leader" Obama, got it.
MLM:
My goal is to attempt to be part of the "reality-based community", however small that group may be. When I see data like this, I factor it into my overall outlook (which is still pretty negative, BTW).
The credit panic is definitely over and the situation is returning ot business as usual. However, the business as usual is subject to the new credit terms. So we will see fresh contraction, but of a distinctly more typical character. I'd almost be willing to say, from the numbers, that we have *just* entered a "typical" 18-month led overcapacity recession of particularly severe character. Maybe we will see some recovery in spring of 2011 barring problems with the state raising money? Big guess but that seems to make sense to me.
Welcome to the Pandemonium States of America! Wanna buy an agenda? Get two for the price of one! Right wing agendas are even cheaper!
"The public and members of Congress seem to be accepting of the idea that a handful of people in the administration and the Fed should do all of this in secret." - O'Neill
What about shareholder and options/futures investor rights? When is some short squeezed hedgie going to get a judge to declare that their investments were impaired by deliberate fraud?
"Borocco Mama wrote on Wed, 04/15/2009 - 9:14am.
If we are witnessing price deflation, how come my Comcast bill went up?"
Really? Yesterday I received a comcast flyer for the triple play at $89/mo. As recently as one month ago I was haggling with them to come down from their then price of $114/mo. They said no dice to my $99/mo. offer. Nice of them to save me a $100 over the coming year in what I was willing to pay.
I love people that try and tell me what my position is and put words in my mouth. I'd love to see protests, actual protests of what the TRUE problems are in this country, not ridiculous shows of uninformed babbling put together by Fox News and other enablers that allowed for the looting for almost a decade with nary a peep and now have become self righteous and ready to take it to the streets. Hypocrisy is never pretty...
Comrade Kristina, Credit Criminals, Peasant, etc,
I think there is a point in most of what you're saying (though accusing someone of being ignorant in some way because they're a bartender seems kind of judgemental) what you're saying is true. That's the point. BOTH sides have valid points, yet in fighting one another on the two sides of the coin, they lose site of their opportunity: to weld together the two points and, by definition, unify people. Again, agit/prop actions seek to divide a group or nation.
This board is visual proof.
Don't fall for Left or Right.
It's all top and bottom.
Jas,
I'm beginning to believe that you are an insider, posing as an outsider (throwing stones). During GD 1.0, the USD was limited by gold reserves, but even then, the price per ounce was raised from 20 to 35 USD--a precipitous devaluation. Still, I am fascinated by the inflation vs. deflation arguments, as I have some GLD for speculative purposes.
Exactly Full Stop. The two party system is a complete joke and a waste of time at this point. THey are two cheek of the same ass so far as I'm concerned. Nobody is looking out for OUR best interests whatsoever. My entire point is until such time as we ALL can band together and protest the Oligarchy in the full blaze of sunlight, we accomplish nothing.
I believe that Jas in an "insider" in Tehachipi, and probably works out a lot, as there's nothing else to do aside from calling people names on the internet. I wonder if he's a top or a bottom?
Comrade Kristina..
I'd love to see protests, actual protests of what the TRUE problems are in this country, not ridiculous shows of uninformed babbling put together by Fox News and other enablers that allowed for the looting for almost a decade with nary a peep and now have become self righteous and ready to take it to the streets. Hypocrisy is never pretty...
Would you go if the protests did address it? Who are these enablers that you mention? You think everyone follows, some of us lead! You seem to be like the person that stays in a cluster of cars, leading the fast lane but looking at the people in the other cars around them waiting for an accident to happen. I move past you and shoot for the gaps where group mistakes lead to accidents.
As a protester who went to the fed back 2 years ago, I was well informed....I never watch fox news that's for the people in Florida who seem to like it..
Hypocrisy resides in everyone....so were all ugly...
_______________________________________________________________________________________
I emptied my bank account so the bastards can't use it. Being in debt is like diving with great white sharks.
Comrade and Credit, you're still doing it.
Take one step back and see you're on the same side.
You really are. And you're both right.
credit, yes, I would most certainly go if they actually addressed the true nature of the problem but they don't. When they start pointing fingers at the
Fed along with GS, JPM, Wells etc. I'll sign up...until then, I'll sit home and tend to my garden.
$20.00 in 1946 is equivalent to slightly more than $218.00 in 2008 dollars.
And $2,180,000,000,000,000,000,000,000,000,000,000,000,000,000,000.57 in 2012 dollars.
which might buy a loaf of bread..or maybe not!
>Is it safe to say the deflationistas have won this battle? Your inflation has been postponed, check back in 2010.
What are you smoking? Production is being cut back all over the globe in everything from copper to corn and cotton. We've hardly ever seen production cutbacks this fast and on this global scale.
Meanwhile, half of the world's expanding population lives in countries where GDP is still growing. Can't you see the resource wars coming, and what they will do to the supply/demand balance for basic commodities? The Chinese can.
Technology has always been in deflation mode, and so are some types of manufactured products. But not commodities. The signs of inflation in commodities are everywhere. Only you can't see them.
you can only eat certain commodities..the rest have to go into goods and noone will be buying any goods for years
Comrade- Gardening is something we both agree on...enjoy your afternoon!
Full stop-I have been saying here forever that both sides are criminals...They want us split and like water thru the mountains the valley will divide us and yet it will grow fertile with the runoff created by each sides tears...
_______________________________________________________________________________________
I emptied my bank account so the bastards can't use it. Being in debt is like diving with great white sharks.
Credit, beautiful valley metaphor.
There's a new thread up, so whether this'll ever get read I doubt, but hey:
You underestimate us thread junkies, mook! Thanks for the info. Still don't quite see how $x trillion is going to be shouldered by 67% of the population.
Note to self: Do not make a ton of $$ the next several years.
Ways to view comments on this thread:
Dead simple, read only interface at: http://users.thelink.net/bobn/CR
CRC-like interface at http://realize.org/cr/crcizer/
Full Blown Interface at http://www.hoocoodanode.org/
For live chat, join us in IRC.
To access IRC with firefox, install the chatzilla add-on and go to irc://irc.realize.org:9996/calculatedrisk.
Or set your IRC client for server irc.realize.org port 9996 and /join #calculatedrisk.
Feed back via bobn