Comments for "Hotel Occupancy: RevPAR Off 28.1 Percent"


I blame William Shatner.

- Nemo


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I would bet 80% of America fits in to what this reporters talks about. I think that financial education should be a key part of everyone base knowledge.

Why I Fired My Broker

http://www.theatlantic.com/doc/200905/goldberg-economy


Welcome to the welfare hotel California.


When are we going to see these places start to shut down? Or do they just get mothballed until the summer tourist season


This time is different. The lodging industry didn't avoid the RRE/CRE bubble. They made occupancy and pricing authority assumptions that are completely busted. at the same time they've leveraged those assumptions into expansion. There won't be any survivors. Usually after enough rooms BK the rest can survive at lower room rates by picking up the occupancy. this time however lower room rates alone kill them regardless of occupancy. Auto dealers and now hoteliers. Expect cascade failure not survival of the fittest.


Summer tourist season has been canceled. America will be too busy with economic recovery to take a vacation.


I suspect that hotels will be turned into boarding houses without maid service & meals, in the not too distant future.


We did our best to save the economy.

Just spent this past Saturday night at the Best Western Motel in Chamberlain, SD, and spent Sunday night at the Lariat Motel in Hardin, MT.

$45 per night in each place, before taxes!


Time for smokin' travel deals.


Actually, this is no surprise. It happens in every cycle. I remember the hotels getting killed in the last two real estate downturns.



Hotels, from the Plaza and the Breakers to the SRO's (single-room occupancy) get sold as dwellings, some with beautiful lobbies.

Some time-sharing is still permitted.


Does not seem to be effecting large metro area hotels yet, I am seeing the same or higher rates as the last couple of years and these are sky high.


Between Arbitrage Macht Frei , Michael, and Jas.. plenty of disturbing posters lately... Jas by himself was tolerable and almost comical. Now add in AMF and Michael and anti-semitism and hate are turned up a notch.. I guess the effect of the bad economy- the anti-semitic cockroaches come out


I have to go buy a new clothes dryer tonight for the better half...does this count as doing my part for the economy?

Trust me I can think of a million other things I could be doing.


Hotels get hurt on recessions, and on overbuilding. As I recall the real estate booms tend to ultimately include overbuilding of hotel rooms. So at some point there are just too many rooms and a tough time follows for hotels. Usually a recessions joins in to kill the weaker sisters.


The disconnect between the economic indicators for the impending CRE collapse, and the stock market (evidenced by REITs, IYR, SRS etc.) is truly a sight to behold. When the market turns, there will not be enough exits.


What happens to the malls from General Growth bankruptcy?

All the tenants get to stay... nothing should really change on the ground right?


OT - Teabagging pics(sfw)

Disclaimer - I think these sad lemmings are the victims of their own media gullibility and not anything like a grassroots movement.


Another reason why IYR is up again today.

My mother vowed to get out of the market when it went back up a little. Now she won't sell cuz it's all better. Sigh.


The real estate boom usually includes overbuilding of hotel rooms. This leads to overcapacity and tough times for hotels. The recession that normally follows kills the weaker players as demand declines. So this is just business as usual in the economic cycle.


" Bubblisimo Gerkinov (member) wrote on Thu, 04/16/2009 - 1:36pm.

OT - Teabagging pics(sfw)

Disclaimer - I think these sad lemmings are the victims of their own media gullibility and not anything like a grassroots movement. "

Will these "tea-bagging pic's get me fired?"


Maybe the decrease in traffic will give them time to clean the ecoli and smegma off their bedcovers.


Between Arbitrage Macht Frei , Michael, and Jas.. plenty of disturbing posters lately... Jas by himself was tolerable and almost comical. Now add in AMF and Michael and anti-semitism and hate are turned up a notch.. I guess the effect of the bad economy- the anti-semitic cockroaches come out

You have to read between the noise.

I personally like the fact that asshats are tolerated to a certain extent, because to some here I may be one myself.

Such is real life.


Cinco x - not those kind of teabagging pix.


I remember when Motel 6 was $6! Now that's old.


I personally like the fact that asshats are tolerated to a certain extent, because to some here I may be one myself.

Such is real life.

Thanks for making me smile...and reflect just a bit. What we often have here is a surfeit of certainty.


Rosetta Stone IPO goes well. Probably because we will all need to learn Chinese soon.

NEW YORK (Reuters) - Rosetta Stone Inc (NYSE:RST - News) shares rose 42 percent in their trading debut Thursday, following the company's initial public offering, putting it on pace for the strongest start of a new stock in a year.

Rosetta Stone, which provides language instruction products, opened trading at $25, on the morning after it priced its IPO at $18, exceeding the estimate range.

In morning trade, Rosetta Stone shares were changing hands at $25.59 on the New York Stock Exchange.

Rosetta Stone is on pace for the strongest first-day performance since fertilizer maker Intrepid Potash Inc (NYSE:IPI - News) rose 58 percent in its debut in April 2008.

Arlington, Va.-based Rosetta Stone sold 6.25 million shares, netting proceeds of $112.5 million in its initial public offering on Wednesday.


I am going to NYC in June and hotwire is offering 4* for around $150, which is about 1/2 off what hotels are offering directly. I assume you can do even better via priceline. Seems hotels are still afraid to offer real discounts directly, but pleanty of bargins out there for those who are willing to be flexible.

(I am going to plug a good website for those who seek to master hotwire/priceline- www.betterbidding.com.)


I also remember when motel 6 was $6. I believe that is why it was named Motel 6.


Nemo blames Captain Kirk; I blame the resignation of Spitzer-Man.


I blame Monica Lewinsky.


energyecon (member) wrote on Thu, 04/16/2009 - 10:43am.
What we often have here is a surfeit of certainty.

Heck, if i could export my certainty the US wouldn't have a negative trade balance. Wink


I have a mortgage on my certainty. The rest of it is on credit cards. I'm a good Murikan.


Wow, empty hotels, empty office spaces, empty houses, empty stores,...where did everybody go? Did the Rapture take them away?


Remember ... when the rapture does come, you get all their stuff.


Wow, empty hotels, empty office spaces, empty houses, empty stores,...where did everybody go? Did the Rapture take them away?

There all at the teabag protests.


The rupture took them away...


"Remember ... when the rapture does come, you get all their stuff. "

Yes, but there won't be anyone left to sell it to at a profit.


This is an exceptional read:

http://www.scribd.com/doc/14268132/Financial-Panics-Political-Change

Kindly forward it around if you will.

More at : http://www.scribd.com/people/documents/10432015-kris


Remember ... when the rapture does come, you get all their stuff.

What's the ruling on Silicon Breasts and Botox everthing else? Does that get raptured? If not, we're looking at a major toxic clean-up, and heaven's looking at some ugly freakin bitches.


It's funny how people read into things...

I'm quite pro-Jewish, but tend to be anti-Jehovah Witness if somebody feels the need to be offended by my moniker.


The only people more bearish than this board on CRE, are the people that work in the industry. The REITs are highly leveraged, their models expect ever-increasing rents, low vacancies, low rates of default, the ability to keep rolling over debts, and the ability to address liquidity problems by selling assets at a premium.

They are all toast, barring government intervention.


It's funny how people read into things...
--------------------------
People will see what they want to see, regardless of whether it is true or not.


The bad news is that we overbuilt our capacity in recent years.

Now we must wait for demand to grow into that excess capacity.

The good news in this is that the economic expansion will enjoy cheaper occupancy costs because of the overcapacity.

Normal cyclical stuff...


Borocco Mama wrote on Thu, 04/16/2009 - 10:49am.
I have a mortgage on my certainty. The rest of it is on credit cards. I'm a good Murikan.

I bought your note last week from the Treasury @34¢ on the dollar. I used 3% of my money and FDIC conduit guarantees for the rest. Please, make at least 4 payments before walking away from your certainty. That way I'm made whole with a little profit and then I don't care. Stick it to those stupid taxpayers.


Sign of the times...

PORTLAND, Maine (AP) - Drivers may have a new reason to fear an automobile break-in: the inspection stickers they must plaster to the inside of their windshield in many states.
In Portland, Maine's largest city, about 40 cars have been hit in the past several months by thieves who have caused thousands of dollars of damage to get the stickers.
And there are sporadic reports elsewhere in the 16 states that require motorists to pay for and display the stickers, which signal that a car has passed a safety or emissions test.
Investigators can't say for sure that the Portland thefts are tied to the economic recession, but one theory is that people who have lost their jobs and can't afford costly car repairs are buying the stolen inspection stickers on the black market.
"Until recently you wouldn't believe there was a market for this, but there's a market for this," said Portland police Lt. Tony Ward.
The thieves smash a window to get inside and then heat the outside of the windshield to loosen the glue on the sticker, police say. The technique allows the thieves to carefully peel away the supposedly tamperproof stickers.
The victim usually ends up with a cracked windshield from the heat, in addition to a broken side window and thousands of glass shards inside the vehicle.
A team of detectives is working to crack the case, Ward said, but another driver worried that authorities don't think it's a big problem.
"It's incredibly infuriating," said Jack Rent, a Gorham resident whose commercial van has been targeted six times in Portland, causing out-of-pocket repair costs of about $3,000. "Most of the police officers say there's not that much they can do."
In most of Maine, the annual inspection costs $12.50, regardless of whether a vehicle passes or fails. It costs $18.50 in Cumberland County, home to Portland, where an additional emissions inspection is required.
It's unclear what the stolen stickers might be selling for, Ward said.
All told, 18 states and the District of Columbia have some sort of inspection program for vehicles, according to the American Association of Motor Vehicle Administrators. All but two require the sticker to be displayed, usually on the windshield.
Because of the economy, motorists are hanging onto their cars longer, and some are delaying maintenance to save money, said Christie Hyde, an AAA spokeswoman in Florida. Sometimes that backfires when costly repairs are needed to pass inspection, she said.
Someone last month broke into two vehicles to steal inspection stickers at Dixie Motorsports Inc. in Suffolk, Va., said owner George Murray.
"It's just the time and hassle and aggravation more than anything else," said Murray, who paid $350 for repairs because the damage didn't meet his insurance deductible.
Down the road, another auto dealership, Ride Time, was the victim of four smash-and-grabs in one night. "Every one had high-value CD players in them, and the only thing they took was the inspection sticker," said Randy White, Ride Time's service manager.
Rent knows the routine well. His primary job is as a fish broker, but he also owns a day care center. And it's the center's 15-passenger van that has been targeted six times, each time over the weekend while parked in a commercial lot.
A call from the day care center on a Monday morning rarely yields good news, he said: "I say, 'Let me guess. They smashed the window again.'"


Wasn't the sing-song battle of intellectual wits between Elizabeth Warren & Jon Stewart last night, something to behold and treasure?


Normal cyclical stuff...

Yep...it's all good until the ocean's start belching methane and hydrogen sulfide.


21st Century fire sale to the Gnomes of Zurich. Oh good, AIG will need $2b less than they needed yesterday.


Investigators can't say for sure that the Portland thefts are tied to the economic recession, but one theory is that people who have lost their jobs and can't afford costly car repairs are buying the stolen inspection stickers on the black market.

Hmmmm ... how hard is it to counterfeit inspection stickers?


Yes. When the end of the world comes the normal cycles will be irrelevant.


A thread that will unravel some covers or...nothingburger? (ht banker, wherever the heck you are)

SemGroup creditors to restart inquiries over banks
Thu Apr 16, 2009 1:43pm EDT
By Caroline Humer

NEW YORK, April 16 (Reuters) - Unsecured creditors in bankrupt energy company SemGroup LP [SEMGP.UL] will restart their inquiries into the roles Goldman Sachs (GS.N), Bank of America (BAC.N) and other Wall Street firms may have played in its bankruptcy, the group's lawyer said on Thursday.

The plan follows the release late Wednesday of a court report that found the co-founders and top executives of SemGroup engaged in risky sales of crude oil options and bypassed the firm's internal controls, and then lied about it.

Susheel Kirpalani, head of the bankruptcy practice at Quinn Emanuel, which is representing the unsecured creditors committee, said that earlier this week he told the Wilmington, Delaware bankruptcy court, where SemGroup filed for bankruptcy last fall, that his firm planned to restart their queries.

The report, which had been available to certain parties before it was made public, focuses on the executives' actions rather than the banks, he said.

http://www.reuters.com/article/marketsNews/idINWEN728620090416?rpc=44


Frazier has entered the ring. He is coming off 5 straight wins and looking tough. His swagger is back, and he's feeling invincible. But there's a rumor he hit the bar a little too hard last night....


I bought your note last week from the Treasury @34¢ on the dollar. I used 3% of my money and FDIC conduit guarantees for the rest. Please, make at least 4 payments before walking away from your certainty. That way I'm made whole with a little profit and then I don't care. Stick it to those stupid taxpayers.

At least I can walk away from you....but you can't walk away from China. They own your ass and you can't walk away. You have no choice but to service them. Well, you could kill yourself, even though it's illegal.


They own your ass and you can't walk away. You have no choice but to service them.

Disaster porn?


Disaster porn?

Please, don't conjure images of Rob's nakedness. I just finished lunch.


When your largest customer is deep in debt to you, you have a problem. When that customer can inflate the currency that the debt is measured in, you have a very serious problem.

China cannot stop selling to us - their economy would collapse. So they will complain but continue to take their financial licking.


Later all ... I'm about to watch 'It's a Mad Mad Mad Mad Mad World' with my kid.


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I think CR owns srs and is pushing his position. I'm all for it.


"Things are not necessarily getting better, but they are getting less worse," said David Stepherson, a portfolio manager at Hardesty Capital Management in Baltimore.

AMERICA: "IT'S LESS WORSE"

there's a motto


Borocco Mama wrote on Thu, 04/16/2009 - 11:05am.
I bought your note last week from the Treasury @34¢ on the dollar. I used 3% of my money and FDIC conduit guarantees for the rest. Please, make at least 4 payments before walking away from your certainty. That way I'm made whole with a little profit and then I don't care. Stick it to those stupid taxpayers.
At least I can walk away from you....but you can't walk away from China. They own your ass and you can't walk away. You have no choice but to service them. Well, you could kill yourself, even though it's illegal.

You thought all the crocuses in your yard dying last week was weather related? YOU HAVE BEEN WARNED.

Seriously, we've been sold a crock of shit concerning investment sectors. I once thought my commercial paper Fidelity MMA was a decent idea. And their idea of "commercial paper?" Countrywide revolving credit lines. GMAFB.


China cannot stop selling to us - their economy would collapse. So they will complain but continue to take their financial licking.
---------------------------
Stooopidest thing i ever read here. Check the data and see how much 'consumption' is actually being down as opposed to manipulated shifts in paper trades.


"In Portland, Maine's largest city, about 40 cars have been hit in the past several months by thieves who have caused thousands of dollars of damage to get the [inspection] stickers."

In the bar a couple months ago, we had a group of vacationers from Maine talk specifically about this AND the yearly registration stickers that go on the license plate. It's like manna from heaven to find one with a long due date and "defective glue". Most go on POS cars that aren't even worth being towed by the P.D. The car owners never pay the fines, the citizens drive without licenses if they're yanked. The most flagrant stuff I've ever heard of. The cops don't usually even waste their time citing now.

- - - - -

Black Star Ranch


Oh dear.. "General Growth" colapsed because of a broken credit market.. hmm.. I would have thought the feckless and irresponsible acquisition of properties with an unsustainable debt burden was the real problem. Oh and an utter lack of management skill.


30% of China's exports come to the US. They are very concerned about maintaining employment. They cannot afford to do anything that would damage that volume. The political unrest would escalate. They will continue to choose the lesser of evils, which is to sell to us even if the terms of trade are not good for them.


@Chicago Dude - actually, American tourist season is heading north - to Canada. It is not impossible that millions of Americans will be buying cottages in Canada this year while the CDA dollar is low . Most of Canada has no death tax. So, buy in gangland Mexico or in Canada. Seems simple. And the richest Americans don't really want to live in a country that is more than a couple of hour drive from American private health care facilities. Places like Toronto, Vancouver and Montrea.

@Arbitrage Macht Frei - you are exactly right. In fact, it is a business opportunity right now. The main cost of hotels is changing the sheets, towels and cleaning the room every day. If hotels let people bring sleeping bags (so that they can charge $30 a night instead of $ 100 per night) - they will be hugely successful. The top brand hotels can't do this - but Best Western certainly can. Tech note : be bugs. There is a new device that hotels can use. Put it all together - the hotels just might survive. Google on 'Namke Productivity Business : Bed bugs, Vacancies and Falling Rents.'

@Interesting Times - easy thing to understand. In a bankruptcy you do something very specific. You rip out the obviously productive stuff and it gets absorbed by currently productive companies. The rest of the stuff becomes potential energy - like water at the top of a hill - it will eventually find its way to the company where it belongs. Bankruptcy only hurts the the people who made losing bets (buying shares). It does not hurt the wealth of a nation.

@Bubblissimo Gerkinov - You're what-ing ov? Useful, fun and inspiring. At least, that's what I try to make my blog. Sounds like you've been at it for while-ing ov?

@Borroco Mama - it wasn't the rapture. It was useless comments that took them away. Just a thought - did you know that the classifieds are often used to pass messages between people?

@Gavshire Hathaway - see comment to Interesting Times, In a bankruptcy - nothing gets destoyed except the investors. The real value remains. Example : you go bankrupt today. And you to to work tomorrow. What happened? Your creditors take the loss - but you continue to be productive. Civilzation, you've got to love it. They used to put debtors in jail! To put it another way : bankruptcy is just a civilized form of institutional insurance for people/companies that has no cash flow impact during a growth phase while they take risks to produce value.

@Anonymous - anti-semitic cockroaches. It would seem that the moderator trashed the posts - thank you moderator. If you wish to detect and eliminate real cockroaches (even if you are traveling) - take some packing tape and Ritz crackers. Just tape long strips of the packing tape to the floor away from your bed and sprickle a tiny bit of broken up Ritz crackers in the middle of the tape. I still remember getting woken up in the night by the sound of cockroaches chewing the collar off my T-shirt from the day before in the closet. Yuck! I hope this helps.

@Shill - a new clothes dryer - Google on 'Natural anti-static ball'. It costs $ 8 at amazon and will save you a lot of money. Your better half will be amazed and stop bugging you about wasting time reading Calculated Risk Smile

@Rob Dawg -actually, it's a bit more complicated than that. I would recommend Jesses' Cafe Americain - Banc of One and also the link about Quants this week under Matiere a Reflexion. The article about Quants shows the liquidity pyramid and how both GSM and JPM (Getco) played it on the run-up the the recent GSM 5 billion issue. For those that have eyes to see! Get it while it's hot!

@Black Star Ranch - thanks for the tip!

@Zephyr - check out Brad Setser (especially the comments by Twofish on the blog). There is a link from the Calculated Risk home page on the right-hand side. I tend to be very careful with my statements about 'China'.

So, hopefully you all caught the bit about the $ 8 anti-static ball for your dryer! ROFL. I try to be useful. I am not in any way, shape or form affiliated with the company. I just find it a fun way to suggest : please make your comments useful, fun and inspiring! That's what I try to do on my little blog.

Thanks CR! Every day I check your site is a please. And thanks comment people (esp Black Start Ranch). Y'all get me tinkin'!


Done