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So who is performing these stress tests anyway? The banks? They might have some credibilty if their independent auditors were required to sign off on them.
Stress Test: Debating How and What to Release
Another demonstration of Americas shoddiness !
America = anything but truth and honesty .
I will ask for and get none of the following:
1. Methodology/criteria for conducting stress tests
2. Evidence of consistency of testing methods across the board.
3. All the stinkin' data collected.
4. Delay of release of results for independent peer-review of data.
5. Full release of independent peer review results
oh oh and hey - just for giggles can we get a stress test scenario without factoring in government financial aid and accounting rule changes:?
The not-at-all-shoddy Yves Smith has a fine perspective on offer this morning:
http://www.nakedcapitalism.com/2009/04/bank-stress-tests-now-officially....
Is she American? I believe she is!
Oh look. There are two of me. (online users)
'Is she American? I believe she is!'
According to her, she wanted to immigrate to Australia, but the Australians wouldn't let her stay (my memory being that financial industry types did not have skills that Australia desired for its immigrants).
But yes, she is American. One who wanted to live somewhere else.
This whole thing is just another folly. They should have never announced the test to begin with. Now they look like fools again trying to decide what and how to release results. In other words cook the info for public tolerance. No wonder Timmy uses Turbo Tax.
With a May 4 deadline approaching, there is no set plan...
That sums up every government effort during this whole episode.
Burnside thanks for that link. Garbage In, Garbage Out a perfect description -- (and thanks for shoutout in post below - never so delighted to see new thread..)
i think the bungling of the stress test disclosure evidences a fissure in the white house that first surfaced during the AIG bonus and executive compensation brouhahas. the politicians (axelrod et al) won over the technicians in this round, but now they have no idea what to do with their victory. and in the end, it makes both sides look foolish.
OT: I just did some option analysis for yesterday's opex and figured some people might be interested in it. I specifically looked at stranded options (options that expired worthless). I looked at 3 stocks: SPY, FAS, FAZ.
............ Worthless......................... Worthless
Ticker... Puts..............% of Puts..... Calls......... % of Calls
SPY........2,368,604.....99...................313,338....22
FAZ .......2,412.............5.................. 136,032....99
FAS....... 130,957........93...................60,770......27
Clearly, option writers cleaned house. Also, the market was extremely bearish judging by open interests, and the bearish view lost nearly all its money in options this month. Goldman has had a very active principal trading acquisition program going on lately. I wonder if these data are correlated? I think it is mostly the banks and large trading houses making the market in options, so perhaps they cleaned house. The light volume on the move up would make sense if the trade was to make most options worthless.
burnside (member) wrote on Sat, 04/18/2009 - 6:22am.
...The not-at-all-shoddy Yves Smith has a fine perspective on offer this morning:...
...Is she American? I believe she is!...
Ah yeah I agree , here and there are a few tiny specs of decency , and commendable ones too !
But they are not "America" , they are the tiny exception ! A few powerless , unorganized individuals and blogers . I guess the mass media and the politicians just laugh about them . And the mass-media is what the mass of Americans consume , right ? Look at what travails poor Mrs. Elizabeth Warren has to go through to get her insight/piont of view "out in the public" .
....it's kinda like the "clown" who wants to be finally taken seriously so he takes off his clown costume and puts on an expensive suit & tie - but doesn't think to remove the big nose, face paint, floppy ears, orange hair and big pancake feet. He keeps changing the suit & tie and wonders why no one will take him seriously! That's our Administration - just a new clown with an expensive suit.
- - - - -
Black 
Ranch
Stress test.
Good morning, bank. How you feeling?
Bank: Good, fine. Thanks.
Excellent!
Test results published: Bank is doing great!
They've been throwing trillions of dollars around in order to "restore confidence in the markets." Yet, ironically, the very thing they wish to avoid disclosing -- the true condition of the banks -- is exactly what is needed to "restore confidence in the markets."
I don't know what to release but I think I know some of the results already. Citi failed the stress test. B of A is close and needs to raise capital. Wachovia and Wells?
I'm sure commenters more informed than me know the condition of other banks subject to the test.
Are they being told during the test which toxic assets they need to dump into the PPIP? Won't that tell us all we need to know (assuming it works of course).
Werner, of course I see your point.
Trouble is, you voice your broad insults - perhaps too strong a word - here, where more than a few commenters recognize the problems in all their contemptible immensities.
Also, I imagine there is a portion of the nation who are altogether decent, though perhaps not well-informed. So your comments sting a bit, and I respond as I do.
Cardiac stress tests are performed by making the patient run until he/she can't any more, ekg changes are noted or patinet is symptomatic. The banks are already symptomatic with EKG changes and they are not running. And I don't think the STAT cath is working either. The patient has had massive a MI (heart attack) and is on a balloon pump and on a waiting list for a heart transplant.
Powerless, sort of. I'm not putting a pinky toenail back into this market until these banks get transparent. And there are thousands like me, most with lots more money to put in the game than me. This adminstration can realize this now, or realize it later.
Open em up, shut em down, move along. (Do i want to shout "rawhide!" at this point? Yes. Yes I do.)
"the true condition of the banks -- is exactly what is needed to "restore confidence in the markets."
Is it? There is another side to it If some of the banks are weak the public may become fearful and panic. I don't think America can handle the truth unless it is all roses.
That was my first post BTW after 5 years of just reading.
Making everyone *pass* will be easy for the Administration.
Explaining to the Congress/public six months from now that the banks that *passed* need hundreds of billions more dollars not so easy.
Reminds me of a Seinfeld episode where Kramer is the subject of a sanity hearing. The judge asks how he is feeling today, and Kramer barks out, "Competent !"
It's not what needs to be RELEASED
It's WHO needs to be LOCKED UP!
Explaining to the Congress/public six months from now that the banks that *passed* need hundreds of billions more dollars not so easy.
Sure it is...they just explain that conditions ended up being worse than their worst-case scenario model. Hoocoodaknown? By then most everyone would have forgotten that the scenarios were outdated by the time the tests completed...
Prediction: it won't happen on May 4.
OT, but you will be surprised by the author of this.
"Under a gold standard, the amount of credit that an economy can support is determined by the economy's tangible assets, since every credit instrument is ultimately a claim on some tangible asset. But government bonds are not backed by tangible wealth, only by the government's promise to pay out of future tax revenues, and cannot easily be absorbed by the financial markets. A large volume of new government bonds can be sold to the public only at progressively higher interest rates. Thus, government deficit spending under a gold standard is severely limited. The abandonment of the gold standard made it possible for the welfare statists to use the banking system as a means to an unlimited expansion of credit. They have created paper reserves in the form of government bonds which - through a complex series of steps - the banks accept in place of tangible assets and treat as if they were an actual deposit, i.e., as the equivalent of what was formerly a deposit of gold. The holder of a government bond or of a bank deposit created by paper reserves believes that he has a valid claim on a real asset. But the fact is that there are now more claims outstanding than real assets. The law of supply and demand is not to be conned. As the supply of money (of claims) increases relative to the supply of tangible assets in the economy, prices must eventually rise. Thus the earnings saved by the productive members of the society lose value in terms of goods. When the economy's books are finally balanced, one finds that this loss in value represents the goods purchased by the government for welfare or other purposes with the money proceeds of the government bonds financed by bank credit expansion."
The entirety of the data, models, and assumptions for all 19 banks would be a spreadsheet taking up less than 200kb.
We will be told some of the data is proprietary/confidential.
We will be denied the details of the model.
We already know that the assumptions are invalid.
The thing that gets me. Unemployment impacts modeling. Besides being unrealistically low it is foolish in the extreme to use a national number. It doesn't matter if the billions of mortgage exposure in Tennessee are stable when 11.2% unemployment are weighing on the hundreds of billions in California.
JP Morgan Chase downgraded due to "steeper-than-expected credit deterioration, particularly in credit cards and consumer lending."
http://online.barrons.com/article/SB123991905382726865.html?mod=googlene...
"Open em up, shut em down, move along. (Do i want to shout "rawhide!" at this point? Yes. Yes I do.)"
Nicely stated.
They should release the truth, the whole truth, and nothing but the truth.
The truth is not that they are in fine shape, they are hiding their insolvency, and they are getting away with the financial equivalent of murder.
It doesn't matter if the billions of mortgage exposure in Tennessee are stable when 11.2% unemployment are weighing on the hundreds of billions in California.
And we already know Plan B for California isn't state spending cuts, it's begging for TARP money or loan guarantees. Put May 20 on your calendars: that's the day the Cali state government has to stop pretending (yet again) that there's no escape from the deficit vice.
------------------
sacrealstats
Lake Geithner; "where all the balance sheets are strong, the economy is looking good, and all the banks are above average,"
And the zinger.
"This is the shabby secret of the welfare statists' tirades against gold. Deficit spending is simply a scheme for the confiscation of wealth. Gold stands in the way of this insidious process. It stands as a protector of property rights. If one grasps this, one has no difficulty in understanding the statists' antagonism toward the gold standard."
Why then, here, under presumption of an impartial ecoblog is there such resistance to AU? Has it been hijacked by the powerful as tool to misinform? Or worse, a vehicle of state policy. Surely no one can be so ignorant as to miss the stark contrast of overwhelming and insupportable IOU issuance and contrarily, the preservative value of a uniform exchange instrument of obvious scarcity.
Preserve your lives and fortunes if you will, but will your back be covered by cellulose and promises or AU? One is a coward who will depart at first danger, the other a faithful servant who is your ally to the end--and in the end parries all abuse.
More from Simon Johnson: Time To Bring In DOJ
He has also written an Atlantic article, The Quiet Coup
Simon Johnson was the IMF's chief economist and is now at the MIT business school.
MittyRN,
Welcome to a brave new world...many of the medical metaphors are very apt. Another I like is the entire economy is on a pacemaker and vent ('heroic' Fed and Treasury intervention) and now we marvel at the regularity of the patient's pulse and respiration...
AIG Chief Owns Signifigant Stake in Goldman Sachs
Liddy is the dollar-a-year man at AIG, who claims to be doing public service work.
MittyRN, i guess that's what the patient gets for self-diagnosing, and self-treating. Welcome to the posting pool.
Just a reminder...
Simon Johnson, the former Chief Economist at the IMF:
The crash has laid bare many unpleasant truths about the United States. One of the most alarming, says a former chief economist of the International Monetary Fund, is that the finance industry has effectively captured our government-a state of affairs that more typically describes emerging markets, and is at the center of many emerging-market crises. If the IMF's staff could speak freely about the U.S., it would tell us what it tells all countries in this situation: recovery will fail unless we break the financial oligarchy that is blocking essential reform. And if we are to prevent a true depression, we're running out of time.
"I don't think America can handle the truth unless it is all roses."
.....I think you might be quite surprised. After the initial panic, hand-wringing, and blame-throwing, Americans get pissed for being mislead. THAT is what the Administration needs to worry about AND, that is what sets the table upright again.
- - - - -
Black Ranch
btw, if Economics trails Physics so much why not throw out Economists and replace them with Physics??
Stephen Hawking for Treasury Sec.!! He has a grasp of black holes and he cant be bribbed with stuff or chicks!!!
BSR, 30 years ago I would say yes. Today I am not so sure.
BSR: they lied sooo much they have to keep on lying and know it!!! looks like these clowns have never grown up and just weaseled to the top....
"why not throw out Economists and replace them with Physics"
I have an ex-brother in law - GREAT Pediatrician-Behavioralist. Terrible with kids running around under foot and has never been married - doesn't want the "adversity".
- - - - -
Black Ranch
Yoringe wrote on Sat, 04/18/2009 - 7:51am.
btw, if Economics trails Physics so much why not throw out Economists and replace them with Physicists??
Putting scientists in charge of policy leads to CO2 being declared a dangerous pollutant.
Won't the materal facts that have to be reported via SEC rules take care of the situation? Oh yeah, they are going to ignore the SEC rules.
BTW maybe a more credible protest than the tea bags would be for the breakup of Goldman Sachs.
burnside (member) wrote on Sat, 04/18/2009 - 6:53am.
Trouble is, you voice your broad insults - perhaps too strong a word - here, where more than a few commenters recognize the problems in all their contemptible immensities.
Also, I imagine there is a portion of the nation who are altogether decent, though perhaps not well-informed. So your comments sting a bit, and I respond as I do.
You may be shocked, but i fully agree with your post !
Actually my posts are "intended" as broad insults , but against "official" America, never against individuals !
Although i dissagreed with manny posts here in the last half year or so and found manny insulting and brazen , I think I never insulted anyone as an individual here .
My insults go against Americas system , or rather it's glaring failure in the last decade or so and it's current resolve to rather than dealing with it's problems (reform) to still seeking a way out by cheating (inflation or default) .
My hope is that America eventually finds it's way back to decency , honesty and excellence . But as things look currently ....
reptillian (member) wrote on Sat, 04/18/2009 - 10:38am.
More from Simon Johnson: Time To Bring In DOJ
He has also written an Atlantic article, The Quiet Coup
___
reptillian:
I've posted the link to "Quit Coup" several times--It should be madatory reading for the in-the-know CR crowd.
Excellent article--he blows the lid off this whole bankster-DC circle jerk.
My hope is that America eventually finds it's way back to decency , honesty and excellence . But as things look currently ....
I hope the same for Germany as well.
------------------
sacrealstats
No one is talking solutions, just papering over the cracks. Stress test BS, a PR trick that is going bad. Events are moving to fast. Those who are the true brightest bulbs in the room are looting while those who are equally smart, but actually want to make changes have been marginalized for a reason.
This is going to go sideways and then down hard. Not a thing we can do, "we" meaning the citizens of the world. The leadership caste had forgotten why they were given the perks and power. It happens over and over in history. Lucky us, and our lucky kids, they get to ride one hell of an approaching wave. Too bad most of us can't swim.
It is a beautiful day here, and I am going to ignore the future, wash my car, squirt my dog, and plant some plants.
http://afterthecrash.net - Home of the Doomer Story Portal and Other Stuff
Werner wrote
Actually my posts are "intended" as broad insults , but against "official" America, never against individuals !
Bring it on, Werner. We're tough--we can take it .... 
nova,
While you're at it, why don't you help the "tree people" clean up their campsite?
Max (member) wrote on Sat, 04/18/2009 - 8:00am.
My hope is that America eventually finds it's way back to decency , honesty and excellence . But as things look currently ....
I hope the same for Germany as well.
Can you please cite a current cause for your hope ?
And if you refere to what happend over half a century ago, why do you ignore/ not accept> the changes in Germany since then ?
Actually it seems that as todays Germany is not what it was then , so todays America is not what it was then. Right ?
"But Mr Dent, the plans have been available in the local planning office for the last nine months."
"Oh yes, well as soon as I heard I went straight round to see them, yesterday afternoon. You hadn't exactly gone out of your way to call attention to them, had you? I mean, like actually telling anybody or anything."
"But the plans were on display ..."
"On display? I eventually had to go down to the cellar to find them."
"That's the display department."
"With a flashlight."
"Ah, well the lights had probably gone."
"So had the stairs."
"But look, you found the notice didn't you?"
"Yes," said Arthur, "yes I did. It was on display in the bottom of a locked filing cabinet stuck in a disused lavatory with a sign on the door saying 'Beware of the Leopard'."
Latest from Armstrong :
http://www.scribd.com/doc/14268132/Financial-Panics-Political-Change
eecon, yikes. self-medicating like an addict.
Bank Regulators are so busy lining their pockets they don't have time to regulate.
The only stress they have is where they can hide their ill gotten money.
before you trample on Germany , ponder that:
1 - we have facism behind us and learned lessons..
2 - we will stick togheter and ride it out..
3- we drink our good beer and watch the Great Shooting across the Ocean..
I find it highly unlikely that we will get all of the raw data. That would allow independent stress tests.
However, I think nothing prohibits an independent group of knowledgeable people from building their own stress tests from publicly available data. If it's the right group, it would probably have more credibility than the current stress tests. In addition, many independent stress tests methods could be run on an ongoing basis.
Having been on the inside of this type of thing, one thing which really disappoints me is how little deep analysis the typical stock analyst did, or the regulators, or in many cases the rating agencies.
expressways and knockdowns
Black Star Ranch wrote
"...After the initial panic, hand-wringing, and blame-throwing, Americans get pissed for being mislead. THAT is what the Administration needs to worry about AND, that is what sets the table upright again. "
Yes, there HAS been evidence of that, but the further back in history you go for examples, the smaller a nation (population) you're citing and thus the smaller the phenomenon of voter inertia needed to be over-come.
Size matters with regards to voter inertia....at 300+ million people; it took a full 6 years of major disasters, not just 4 years, before Bush II lost credibility with a political 'working majority' in our large nation. Inertia is a beast.
Since the US tossed out Nixon in 1974, it has grown 50% in population and seemingly much slower to respond to Presidential mis-deeds and mis-steps.
On the flip-side, during severe economic turmoil, the tolerance by a 'working majority' of voters for mis-steps is very short; conversely, tolerance is very high during boom times.
With a bad economy, we tossed out in Nixon in '74; Ford in '76 after 1 term after the Nixon pardon mis-step; Carter in '76 after 1-term after the Iran Hostage mis-step, etc; and Bush I in 1992 after 1 term after the read-my-lips mis-step.
BUT during boom times, the working majority of the electorate kept Reagan for 8 years despite pre-1984 rumblings of pre-Iran-Contra mis-deeds; kept Clinton for 8 despite the pre-Lewinski mis-deed, and kept Bush II for 8 years despite a laundry list of mis-deeds even as of the 2004 elections. It's amazing what Boom Times will do for a re-election Campaign.
Most people today have no re-collection of how bad the US economy was in 1973-74 after Nixon was re-elected in 1972 and therefore are unable to see that even Nixon was part of the above trend line on economics and politics.
Figures on government spending and debt
WASHINGTON (AP) --
Total public debt subject to limit April 16 11,125,587
Statutory debt limit 12,104,000
Total public debt outstanding April 16 11,183,899
Operating balance April 16 257,351
Interest fiscal year 2009 thru February 148,762
Interest same period 2008 198,518
Deficit fiscal year 2009 thru February 764,525
Deficit same period 2008 264,541
Receipts fiscal year 2009 thru February 860,877
Receipts same period 2008 967,153
Outlays fiscal year 2009 thru February 1,625,402
Outlays same period 2008 1,231,694
Gold assets in March 11,041
First glance looks good, oh wait we need to add the 000,000s...
we need wads of space cash0:)
seen Southpark lately?? its the Lie, stupid!!!
some investor guy (member) wrote on Sat, 04/18/2009 - 8:20am.
Having been on the inside of this type of thing, one thing which really disappoints me is how little deep analysis the typical stock analyst did, or the regulators, or in many cases the rating agencies.
The problem with deep analysis of the fundamentals as an investment strategy is that it would have wiped you out in these markets over the last decade.
"My insults go against Americas system , or rather it's glaring failure in the last decade or so and it's current resolve to rather than dealing with it's problems (reform) to still seeking a way out by cheating (inflation or default) . "
Exactly, greed is running totally amok and cooking the books is widespread in the USA. Big corporations now own the US government 100 percent and J6Ps are totally left behind. Obama most likely will be the last president of USA in its current form. I don't know what the hell is going to happen few years from now but it will be nasty and ugly.
Especially with 200+ million handguns and Americans really starting to feel the heat from multiple fronts. USA is already plutocracy and the rich elite is busy looting the place. Plutocracies in history have always collapsed in the end and usually in very bloody ways...
Samdog (member) wrote on Sat, 04/18/2009 - 8:04am.
...Bring it on, Werner. We're tough--we can take it ....
My helpless yapping ? Yeah, I guess so .
But with what you may have some real problems is your realisation of what America has becomme in the last decade or so . From a nation which can put a man on the moon to a nation with a financial/political system a banana republic would be proud of.
to say it different: The US rose to the biggest heights in Historie just to create a bigger splash as any other place before! Go USA
Reptilian,
That is an amazing story. Looks like liberals can be just as greedy and corrupt as anyone else. Too bad the media continually pushes the stereotype of wealthy conservatives stealing from the poor huddled masses.
You all notice how uncharacteristically quiet Mr. Buffet chooses to be when bank healths are concerned!
leave Warren alone, he needs Money for Retirement..
"Indeed, CitiFX analysts said in a note that with "so much perfection priced in," such as optimism over bank earnings and the economy, mark-to-market accounting changes, proposed changes on the uptick rule and the U.S. Treasury Department's toxic asset plan, the question is where the next piece of good news is going to come from."
That's what passes for "good news," here
Werner,
I meant my earlier comment as a joke. I think a lot of your opinions are shared by many folks on CR.
Werner,
I meant my earlier comment as a joke. I think a lot of your opinions are shared by many folks on CR.
MittyRN, i guess that's what the patient gets for self-diagnosing, and self-treating. Welcome to the posting pool.
Yep. And let's extend that metaphor to include the observation that the greatest cost of health care is in the last years of life. Not calling for euthanasia, but we should have let the banks go quietly, with dignity.
Following up:
The Obama Admin has embraced all of Bernanke's, Geithner's (and now Sheila Blair's) voodoo-sorcery to conjure up a facade of financial stability for our zombie banks so as to have a framework for spinning good news to bolster Dems chances in the 2010 mid-terms. The Achilles' Heel is how bad the job crises will be in Summer/Fall 2010 as the specter of a jobless 'faux'-recovery grows more distinct despite the financial sleight-of-hand tricks.
Even more intriguing is the oft-overlooked fact that at age 47, Obama has only conducted 2 re-election campaigns in his entire political life and both were small-time affairs as a state senator for a very liberal and heavily African-American senate district in Chicago. In Illinois, he never stayed in the same office long enough to face more than 2 re-election efforts; and he badly lost his effort for a House seat in 2000 against a well-funded incumbent not hobbled as McCain was by the burden of the Bush legacy.
So Team Obama's angling for wins in 2010 and again in 2012, while remaining clueless and befuddled by Debt Unwind and the unknown side effects of Bernanke/Geithner on-going financial sorcery and spell-casting, will be a fascinating story to watch.
Actually it seems that as todays Germany is not what it was then , so todays America is not what it was then. Right ?
Oh, I think today's US and Germany have a lot in common, which is something you conveniently leave out when you insult the US:
German Govt's Hypo RE Shr Offer Runs Apr 17-May 4
Top U.S., European Banks Got $50 Billion in AIG Aid
Keep telling yourself that hubris, excessive risk taking, and regulatory capture are exclusive to the US system. Denial is not just a river in Egypt.
------------------
sacrealstats
I truly wonder what TPTB think. Do they believe after killing of anyone productive they can just eat there worthless paper??
Or pat themself for still standing why everyone else is Bankrupt?? I bet these Dudes are helpless without somebody else caring
and providing for them.. there will be a under ground economie and barter.. what to they have to give you besides useless things??
'3- we drink our good beer and watch the Great Shooting across the Ocean.'
Or stay at home - 16 here, 4 there - it adds up at some point, doesn't it? And let's be honest - the 16 includes an almost exclusively female list in the school, a fact that is being kept very, very quiet by most official sources.
from the previous thread
Lucifer (member) wrote on Sat, 04/18/2009 - 4:37am.
UBS or Credit-Suisse or both? Fear of a mega-bank failures in Switzerland
UBS is now the equivalent of United Bank of Sri Lanka - If you cannot help me hide my money, tell me again why I need to bank with you ?
Samdog (member) wrote on Sat, 04/18/2009 - 8:39am.
...I meant my earlier comment as a joke. I think a lot of your opinions are shared by many folks on CR...
I know that .
Max you miss the main point: EU Europe doesnt want bailouts, they want regulation..
and the Politicos here in EU Land KNOW the public is aware and quick with the knife out.
All that reduces chances the Public gets screwed so they tread carefull.
Reading about the Financial Wild West over in USA is just shocking, even more when you know
its the rest of the Globes savings you got the last decades... and still no Law and Responsibility anywhere in side!!!!
Actually, Germany is nationalizing Hypo, with a take it or don't take it, we don't care offer, for the shareholders, along with removal of management.
And the reason for this is clear to all concerned parties - 'The credit history of Pfandbriefe is impeccable. Not one case of Pfandbrief default has been recorded since the Mortgage Bank Act, the predecessor of the Pfandbrief Act, entered into force over 100 years ago.' http://www.pfandbrief.de/d/internet.nsf/index/en_basics.htm
The money being pumped in is considered to be a strategically wise decision to avoid greater problems in a critical part of the German credit system, one that has survived several wars, and various fiat currencies (and whatever other lunacy is currently being bandied about by Americans). Of course, this government action might not be correct, but at least it is rational. And it is a pain upfront sort of decision, especially on the part of those that are being forced to take the losses - no one is expecting the problems to magically disappear, they expect the problems to be worked out at a lower total cost than if they were ignored or otherwise handled.
We will see how it works out, of course, but most Germans seem to feel that walking away is just a stupid way to meet one's obligations, especially in terms of the long term costs of being a deadbeat. But then, Germany never really did get the American debt=wealth perspective.
Werner wrote
"...But with what you may have some real problems is your realisation of what America has becomme in the last decade or so . From a nation which can put a man on the moon to a nation with a financial/political system a banana republic would be proud of..."
Werner, you cite a common mis-perception of small-group and large-group human dynamics. The 1960-69 Manned 'Mission To Space' involved a tiny percentage of Americans as actors, decision-makers and play-makers. There were powerful 'gatekeepers' involved and the US was able to weed out all the idiots and incompetents, and achieve something spectacular that involved a very closed and numerically tiny circle of military vendors, military contractors, scientists, and military personnel, as the actual decision-makers and do-ers.
The US repeated such success with a similar closed circle of technologists when it came to our consumer tech gadget products.
The US repeatedly FAILS, spectacularly so as if a Banana Republic, on all endeavors requiring an OPEN LOOP with minimal gates and almost no gate-keepers; all endeavors open to nearly all Americans as decsion-makers, doers and play-makers; such as our residential construction, homebuying and financing industry, fail over time after producing years of very mediocre results. Ditto for our food distribution/grocery/shopping system and our healthcare system of patients/employers/and medical providers.
Painful, perhaps disturbing and embarrassing but nonetheless true of human dynamics and abilities.
I continue to be amazed at the extent to which Western Europeans believe their shit don't stink.
I keep waiting for the mea culpas or in the same boat type comments but they don't come.
Max you miss the main point: EU Europe doesnt want bailouts, they want regulation..
and the Politicos here in EU Land KNOW the public is aware and quick with the knife out.
So $1.3 trillion to the IMF for Eastern European states and the US propping up AIG by $200 billion+ has nothing to due with the over indebtedness of German and French banks? Please!
------------------
sacrealstats
RD: you missunderstand
we know very well our shit stinks ( since it is the same as yours, you sold it 
, its just how we handle it from there. We seem to go the way of capitalism with an eye on social impact, while you let the shitters pick over the crap for some undigested gems before you dump it on the public!!!
Btw, we taxed heavily for Infrastructure wich helps in the long run, what does the US got?? Parking Space for Aircraft in the desert comes to mind ( you not even recycle them i guess??))
I wouldn't be surprised if all of the banks are insolvent to some degree, except for the ones that helped to create the Federal Reserve.
----
"The pessimist complains about the wind; the optimist expects it to change; the realist adjusts the sails." -- William Arthur Ward
tarpy: timmay, they named a lake after you!
timmay: did hank get a lake?
tarpy: no, i don't think a lake. i think there was a public restroom in Central Park, though
timmay: i'm on the map
tarpy: you stud-muffin
timmay: if you know where the lake is, take those stress tests, wrap them around a brick, and throw them in
RD,
Those statements are usually a result of having their noses rubbed in it...they will continue to pretend that sandwich is unicorn skittles until E. Europe really augers in...
Austrian Banks:E.Europe = US Regionals:CRE
Max: the US rated, sold and helped not to regulate this "assets" to sell it all over the Globe!
You frauded and now you trie to limit the Damage, thats what AIG is too.. remember you have to sell treasuries?? keep the Faith going??
I learned as Kid taking responsibility for my actions can suck a lot!! Welcome to responsibility!!!!
The only difference between US and European unicorns is that their horns only twist to left.
"I continue to be amazed at the extent to which Western Europeans believe their shit don't stink."
Because YOU SUCK big time (USA) then everybody else must suck equally or worse? Not this time, you Americans really fucked up your own country similar way Germans fucked up theirs with nazism after WWI. Western/Northern Europe still got quite nice and adequate social safety nets and public education available to everybody willing to learn. Even PIGS-countries are quite ok compared to USA. Europeans also do not have runaway military spending, taking precious resources from other areas such as education and social programs.
The loans to Eastern Europe were given mostly to WESTERN companies expanding into east and for much needed infrastucture projects. Those are generating future cash flows unlike American banks loaning everybody with a pulse and in many cases with no documents!
Yoringe,
When will the European banks be returning the Federal money delivered through AIG?
energy, RD a little ground explanation! my folks at home living with 27% unemployment since a decade and many others in germany are used to grim economic conditions!!
east Europe survived the USSR collapse and still stands.. so what about the crash?? we have nothing and not much to loose.. we will get trough, nothing new
Now, honestly how has the US Population been prepared for that?? any knowledge or skills or mental preparation?? sorry to say, you seem completly unprepared and still running like "cant happen here". We in Europe know it has happened and will be again.. its the mentality that set us apart and will make the difference!!!
First thing, is that you do not allow the banks to play around with FASB accounting fraud, i.e, no bullshit with mark-to-market valuations and adjusted GAAP distortions that bounce debts around in off balance sheet games. We need to see the full amount of dilution and writedowns, including all Level 3 garbage, all TARP cash and related government bailout funds and essentially a full accounting of what they own, how much debt they have and how much cash is in the vault today. These banks are all present day Enron's and Long Term Capital-like failures with entities and subsidiaries all linked back to Timmy and Treasury accounting fraud -- and of course Helicopter Ben, with his highly abusive use of the discount window and all the bullshit swaps, exchanges and mechanisms in place to help these banking pirates evade disclosure.
Thus it's not just the banks that need to provide full disclosure, it's the government that also has to come clean, in regard to Trillions of dollars! This is a chaotic mess that can't be swept under the rug with a fast PR statement that a few banks are in trouble, because this is a systemic failure that has global implications. If the Obama team provides dishonesty and a lack of disclosure, they will continue to erode their ebbing credibility and the market will obviously continue to lack confidence in banks and government -- and that is the path we are in, which mirrors Japan's lost decade. It really depends on how Obama want to be remembered by history, i.e, is he a crook in bed with the banks and wall street or is he a hero that has balls?
One last thing, IMHO, Goldman is trying to re-pay some of TARP funding, because they see that as a way to gain a competitive advantage, an advantage which is an antitrust abuse, which has come to be, as a result of Treasury abusing its powers and engaging in commerce; Treasury & Fed have been way out of line for at least two years with abuse of powers, usurping powers from a very weak and retarded congress -- thus, it's no surprise that branches of government that are intended to be watchdogs, like FTC and DOJ, are entirely out of the loop with antitrust issues and constitutional abuses. It's not the fucking banks that need cleaned up, it's our government, which is highly corrupted from The Bush years! Clean up government and then nationalize these toxic shitpile banks!
Amen
I have nothing more to add, except:
Europeans also do not have runaway military spending, taking precious resources from other areas such as education and social programs.
And in 2 years when the American Eagle is not enough to scare the Russian Bear? Get ready for your own guns or butter moment.
'I keep waiting for the mea culpas or in the same boat type comments but they don't come.'
How many billions in worthless German mortgages are currently sitting in CalPERS? How many Germans are deciding it is in their economic best interest to walk away from their obligations? How many Germans live off of credit, soaking up the world wide savings glut to buy consumer goods?
For that matter, considering how much attention the U.S. pays to its treaty obligations to not torture prisoners, why do you think we should all be in the same boat?
The list is not exactly short of why not only the EU is getting a bit concerned about a formerly reliable partner that seems increasingly adrift in unreal fantasies of dark forces waiting to destroy western civilization, a society whose 'stress tests' are a world wide, not merely American joke.
And the world is very disappointed in losing what it formerly considered to be an example of a good society, even with its flaws. Now, the U.S. is copying torture techniques from the Gestapo, the KGB, and even more disgustedly, 1984 (well, insects, not rats, but some would call that poetic license). Not to mention the fiscal policies of a banana republic, particularly the looting of the treasury.
Or do you feel that the U.S. is worthy of help, even as you scorn so much of the current policies it follows?
Or is just more of that entitlement thinking that is so commonly derided by many posters here?
Max (member) wrote on Sat, 04/18/2009 - 8:42am.
German Govt's Hypo RE Shr Offer Runs Apr 17-May 4
Yeah, in a way it seems that HRE will become our little AIG .
Top U.S., European Banks Got $50 Billion in AIG Aid
Aid ? I thought these were contractual obligations of AIG . No ?
And since american law has not (yet) invented "selective" bankruptcy (against foreigners only) , these payments were just for legally binding obligations . Expect any praise for actually paying legally binding obligations ?
Look, we are not squeakingly clean here in Germany , but we also have nothing of the "financial meltdown" as you have , nor is our government on the hook for $7 trillion (or the equivalent) .
And frankly we all know that the current malaise originated on Wall Street and in Whashington , not in Frankfurt or Berlin . Nor are we betraying our creditors (by printing money like hell ) !
RD, they bought time with AIG or you would stand complete naked and alone by know!!!
AIG is for the US not to collapse quicker, to sad you get robbed in the process..
well you may feel know a whiff of "Collective Punishment" and dont complain its your own ppl doing it...
just make a three column release: good / bad / gone.
'And in 2 years when the American Eagle is not enough to scare the Russian Bear?'
This peculiar obsession with a worn out empire which Western Europeans have been living with, and invading, for centuries is part of what makes people wonder when the U.S. decided to play the 'insurance' game - nice countries you people have, it would be a shame if they had an 'accident' - luckily, we have just the policy to keep you safe from the threats we alone can see.
It is pretty sad to realize that Germany is celebrating 20th anniversary of the fall of the Berlin this year, and some people are still talking about how the Russians are coming.
They aren't. Another thing you learned in childhood has changed. Time to look around - there have been a number of changes since the 1960s.
"And in 2 years when the American Eagle is not enough to scare the Russian Bear? Get ready for your own guns or butter moment. "
I just wanted to second this thought.
Interesting that this month Marc Faber included a piece in his news letter that the Europeans will lose Europe to the Muslims and move to America to make a last stand against the hordes. I am not joking.
It is pretty sad to realize that Germany is celebrating 20th anniversary of the fall of the Berlin this year, and some people are still talking about how the Russians are coming.
Posted that with electricity generated by natural gas did you?
Sadder still is the failure to acknowledge the blood and treasure the US expended such that the Berlin Wall fell apparently of its own accord.
and you really believe that RD???
"And in 2 years when the American Eagle is not enough to scare the Russian Bear? Get ready for your own guns or butter moment. "
some news, Russians are as bad at conquering as anybody else!!! there is no Military thread from them!! looks more like they bribe us with resources to leave "Camp US".. wich you should be scared of!!
Max: the US rated, sold and helped not to regulate this "assets" to sell it all over the Globe!
So European banks buying CDS from AIG to avoid EMU capitol requirements was all the US' idea? Yes, the US tricked innocent European banks into avoiding their own regulatory restrictions.
Sorry, overleverage is a feature of every financial system in the world. No country is innocent. If it makes you feel better to blame the US, go ahead.
------------------
sacrealstats
Yoringe wrote on Sat, 04/18/2009 - 9:24am.
some news, Russians are as bad at conquering as anybody else!!! there is no Military thread from them!! looks more like they bribe us with resources to leave "Camp US".. wich you should be scared of!!
Thank you, Mr. Chamberlin.
You Germans should be reading Gunnar Heinsohn of Bremen University and spending a little time with the Frau.
RD get real!! they will beg us to buy the gas of them!!! what use do they have for all the pipelines they build to Europe if not for selling the stuff???
this scare stuff doesnt pull it here.. to channel Jas: its for BBAD to explain 600 Billion+ Dollar DoD spending..
and for the whole WALL myth:
without a far sighted leader like Gorbatchev it would not have happened!!!!!!! with some dick around we would be "North Korea in Europe" now but still standing..
"And in 2 years when the American Eagle is not enough to scare the Russian Bear? Get ready for your own guns or butter moment. "
Ah, the expresso drinking coward Europeans and a paper bag, right? Not so.
France alone spends more to weapons than Russia, not to mention EU15, the second biggest global weapons dealer. UK and France have nukes. EU is more than capable to defend against Russian army which is a joke. For every two privates there is an officer, for example. Some army they got there. Ground war in Europe would be WWIII with nukes and nobody wants that.
Only now after the Georgia war, that was considered quite a fiasco (even Russian military experts think so) even when they won, there are some signs of improvements. And Russians do want to MAKE BUSINESS, not war with other Europeans. The last thing Russians would want is to spoil the possibilties by starting stupid weapons race.
Enjoying the German-US debate.
Rob Dawg and others, it is true that there are some differences between the US and German financial cultures. Non-payment of debt, through default or inflation, and the corresponding devaluation of savings, is avoided in Germany but is a policy goal in the US. This means that Germans generally tend to avoid high levels of debt, because they know they will actually have to repay it in full value.
On the other hand, the notion that this is due to some superior ability of regular Germans to supervise their politicians is bunk. It's a result of Germany's bad history with hyperinflation, whereas the US tends instead to associate deflation with the Depression.
Most of the US posters here are very atypical, and are opposed to excessive debt, inflation and default as a policy. So it's a bit unfortunate that Werner fires off his criticisms aimed at the US in general in this forum. Other US posters identify Summers, Geithner, Bernanke, Sheila Bair, Barney Frank, Chris Dodd, Chuck Schumer etc as targets of their criticism, with kudos to a few lonely figures like Volcker. Of course, that practically means the US as a country is guilty of all the criticisms that Werner levels, since almost all the people in power are advocates of more debt and its non-repayment. But most of us come here for temporary relief from the oppression of this majority, not to hear someone tell us that we are guilty of the majority's sins.
w: he misses a important Point:
there where no Machines in the past!!!
so all these modeling is flawed!!!!
and how will all these "Muslims" arrive in Europe?? with flying carpets???
for your Info nukes made konventionell wars quite unwinable and nukes we have here a lot!!!
the way forward is that the 3rd world gets it and shrinks too in there Population!! and dumps these stupid everlasting growth assumptions too..
Rob Dawg (member) wrote on Sat, 04/18/2009 - 8:56am.
I continue to be amazed at the extent to which Western Europeans believe their shit don't stink.
I keep waiting for the mea culpas or in the same boat type comments but they don't come...
And I am amazed to see Americans making ludicrous assertions/predictions even in the face of their miserably failed previous ones. They seem to be learning nothing at all !
I am no longer looking for their predictions (on this board ! ) about the "blowing up" of Deutsche Bank become true, nor do I keep waiting for the mea culpas for these hilarious and boisterous miserably failed predictions . Hihi.
....The US repeatedly FAILS, ........on all endeavors requiring an OPEN LOOP with minimal gates and almost no gate-keepers; all endeavors open to nearly all Americans as decision-makers........fail over time
Yes, isn't it terrible that we still have the freedom to do as we want, and even the right to be able to fail ............oh wait - I guess not if you're too big......nevermind.......
- - - - -
Black Ranch
Rob,
Deep analysis of fundamentals would have kept you out of markets where there was no practical way of shorting. In markets where you can short, you would have had a major question about timing. It's very hard to predict when they will move back toward fundamentals.
and for the "Muslim" paranoia:
The one i know enjoy europe, start drinking and become more liberal!!
it seems the true fanatics just causing problems if we go in there countrys and try to convert them to above..
"Yes, the US tricked innocent European banks into avoiding their own regulatory restrictions."
Actually there were negotiations about siv, cdos and other similar stuff between EU and US about who should supervise those globally. American officials convinced Europeans that they will supervise and guess what, Americans "lassie dog" capitalistic idiots appointed ONLY ONE person to do that! Because markets can regulate themselves quite ok, right?
Hmm. Shouldn't banks that took bad risks be punished? Shouldn't failing institutions fail?
At this point anyone who has uninsured deposits in any of these banks deserves the risk they are taking...
I'm sure this has been posted already but
here's my list of what should be public:
1. everything.
OECD Economic Outlook Interim Report for Germany (pdf warning):
"Shouldn't banks that took bad risks be punished? Shouldn't failing institutions fail?
At this point anyone who has uninsured deposits in any of these banks deserves the risk they are taking..."
Exactamente......+10
- - - - -
Black Ranch
So, any bankers who'll play along with CR and nominate info that should be released?
I am completely skeptical at this point, and believe that this is merely a confidence-building marketing effort. I think Bernanke, Geithner, Bair etc are betting that they can reinflate asset prices enough to make most of the insolvent institutions solvent again, at least for long enough to earn their way out of the morass by virtue of a constant feed of govt subsidies in the form of cheap money and debt repayment guarantees.
re : Anonymous wrote on Sat, 04/18/2009 - 9:13am.
Excellent post Anonymous (aka : rent_to_own) .
I would also like to point out the extraordinary amount of effort and time this american skrew up has elicited from the rest of the world. As an entertainment is was/is nice, but I think for the rest of the world it is time to move on and leave America and it's shenanigans behind in the rubble ! The rest of the world has better things to do than to occupy itself with American problems . America is not the navel of the world . (See the recent $10.2bn currency swap between China and Argentina) . The rest of the world can live without Americans or the Dollar !
.....the Presidential Appointment. This is what puts idiots in charge of the various branches of government. The career governmental workers know where the REAL problems lie - they've been around for 15-30 years. Move them up. Let them take over and make changes. Talk about "shit hitting the fan" time...........
- - - - -
Black Ranch
Yoringe
German population growth -25%
European Muslim population growth +500%
You won't have to be killed just out voted. When you get tired of Sharia you can be Born Again here with us in America. God Bless every Catholic from Latin America sneaking into America.
w wrote on Sat, 04/18/2009 - 9:19am.
...Europeans will lose Europe to the Muslims and move to America to make a last stand against the hordes. I am not joking....
But it still elicited a hearty laugh from me . Thanks .
Patientrenter:
I just nominated everything.
Explain what should be kept secret.
For Werner:
Young Americans in Belm:
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=lbLz19y5srA
Another tour group left yesterday for 10 weeks. First show is Wednesday
04/22/09 • 07:00pm
Music Outreach Concert
Butzbach, Germany
There will be 30 more of them just from this group.
Check one out.
yogi, don't you think that the banks could show "everything" and yet obfuscate cleverly so that you can't quite pin down how optimistic they are? After all, the models they use are, I assume, massive and complex. (In my own segment of the industry, all our models look that way.) So they aren't actually going to publish the entire model, just an abstract of the assumptions and results. Lots of room for hiding things, unless a few sharp cookies, like CR's readers, trigger demands for specific data that make it too difficult for them to hide excessive optimism.
Okay, you've convinced me. It is entirely the fault of the decadent US. Not only that but clearly any collateral damage to other economies are our fault and responsibility to make good. Additionally as has been proven beyond doubt here the US is incapable and untrustworthy to do the right things. Therefor it is incumbent upon the victims to impose restitution and punishment. I anxiously await this reverse Marshall Plan.
Werner,
The fact that a bright apolitical mind like Faber would even entertain putting that in his newsletter shows that it has some relevance. Sure it sounds silly, to say Europe will be taken over by the Muslims, but it is pretty clear that Europeans of European decent are not reproducing and the Muslims are both reproducing and immigrating. Gluck!
Everything means everything. If it lacks specific data, it's not everything.
Next on TBS - Weekend At Werner's
Two French kids find a dead German country and reanimate it with viagra to "spend some time with a Muslim Frau".
Interesting that this month Marc Faber included a piece in his news letter that the Europeans will lose Europe to the Muslims and move to America to make a last stand against the hordes. I am not joking.
Just because a guy is moderately right in finance doesn't mean he's a sociological Nostradamus. Though he is popular on the Persian Gulf, if you look on GoogleNews for the newspapers who run his stuff.
Invasion? No? Breeding the Euros into submission? They might make up a larger segment of the population in the future, but by the time enough of them make it into the middle class they'll be latte-swilling childbirth-delaying lounge lizards like much of the rest of the Euros -- and Americans on both coasts.
Y'know, mostly people just want to get along. You don't see any Muslim countries in the Middle East invading anything but each other -- and Israel, which arguably made the first move.
patientrenter wrote on Sat, 04/18/2009 - 9:37am.
...But most of us come here for temporary relief from the oppression of this majority, not to hear someone tell us that we are guilty of the majority's sins...
Your point is well taken patientrenter , but please tell me how do I direct my criticism to Summers, Geithner, Bernanke, Sheila Bair, Barney Frank, Chris Dodd, Chuck Schumer etc ? They would not read an email from me , would they ? Frankly , you are the only few Americans conveniently available to me (and thus my easy pray) .
But I think you have finally convinced me to tone down my ranting here , since manny of you (but not all ! ) are not the appropriate target for my ranting . Well , what do I do now ...
If you haven't noticed, here's how the system works:
The banks reveal some data, applying their significant judgment. The SEC publishes virtually all of the reports they get. The bank regulators publish a little bit of information. Smart bloggers analyze the info and publish, and commenters add their thoughts.
Obama has called for openness and transparency. There is no reason to hide any statistic, or data from a bank, from the American public.
"It is entirely the fault of the decadent US"
It is mostly. Why it is so hard to accept that? Because America is so exceptional? It could never happen in the USA? You are always the good guys? Just like Germans were mostly to blame for WWII with their nazism, now USA really is the "bad" guy and getting worse because of plutocracy and big corporations controlling pretty much everything. Nations have gone bad before and will continue go bad in the future. USA is no exception.
"you are the only few Americans conveniently available to me (and thus my easy pray)"
--------------------
I knew it.
Werner is here to convert us.
He's already.... one of "them".
yogi,
Point well taken - for those compelled to continue the Germany discussion, I suggest reading the OECD link I posted above.
This funny, simple truth is those in Europe who played the game and lost, can blame America all they want. They were not smart enough to see it either and now play Monday morning quarterback. Your bankers are no smarter then Americas J6PK. Drink Up!
Perhaps Bob. But there is no reason to believe birth rates will drop sharple in Africa, the Middle East and Asia any time soon. It is well documented that the populations in Europe of native Europeans are dropping sharply. What will slow the tide of immigration from Africa and the Middle East? What attendant philosophies will come with them? I think it is naive to think Europe will be of much significance in a world where it makes up only a few percent of the population and acts like a pacifist. The same demographic changes are happening here in America but fortunately the bulk of the immigration is Catholic Latino, which intermarries and assimilates very easily.
The truth is that history is at the mercy of demographics and resource distribution and has little to do with politics.
RedHulk wrote on Sat, 04/18/2009 - 10:21am.
"It is entirely the fault of the decadent US"
It is mostly. Why it is so hard to accept that?
No, you don't get it. I accept your judgement entirely. Unconditional. Now it is your problem. you are in charge. What is to be done now that you are in charge? I ask this question secure in the knowledge that no one of our victims, now our masters is going to step up with concrete orders. What is it you want us to do? Impose your will but think it through first. you now own the problem. no more hiding behind "Blame America."
Oh, and how did the Latte sipping crowd in Lebanon and Syria fare over the last 30 years?
'Europeans will lose Europe to the Muslims'
Oh please -
The three scenarios differ are about the fertility paths of both populations and the migration flows received.
'1) Business as usual (with migration): fertility is locked in its 2005 levels (Muslim 2.38, non Muslim 1.52) for the whole century. Europe receives 1.5 million immigrants a year, 60% Muslims, for the rest of the century.
2) Business as usual (without migration): fertility is locked in its 2005 levels (Muslim 2.38, non Muslim 1.52) for the whole century. Migration is halted in 2005.
3) Linear convergence 2030 (with migration): Fertility moves linearly for both populations, converging to 2 children per woman in 2030. Europe receives 1.5 million immigrants a year, 60% Muslims, for the rest of the century.
4) Linear convergence 2030 (without migration): Fertility moves linearly for both populations, converging to 2 children per woman in 2030. Migration is halted in 2005.
The first graph displays the Muslim population as a percentage of total EU population. It shows that Muslim population would be around 15% in mid-century if migration flows were halted. If the present level of immigration continues, the Muslim population will be around 20%.'
http://kantor-blog.blogspot.com/2008_01_01_archive.html (There is also an Excel tool, but I would never download any Microsoft format data from the web, personally - http://www.census.gov/Press-Release/www/releases/archives/population/011... )
By this standard, America has already become Hispanic, and Americans will be fleeing the 'hordes' to make a last stand in the EU - 'The nation's Hispanic population increased 1.4 million to reach 45.5 million on July 1, 2007, or 15.1 percent of the estimated total U.S. population of 301.6 million.' http://www.census.gov/Press-Release/www/releases/archives/population/011...
The rest of the world does not exist in the state of anxious fearfulness that so many Americans seem to think is normal. It isn't. Europeans aren't concerned about hordes, whether they be Muslim (as if Iranians and Turks and Moroccans even get along with each other in terms of historical antipathies) or Russian. But Europeans do remain fearful of war, especially the wasteful variety fought for stupid reasons - they have lots of experience in that particular form of idiocy. Actually, they had so much experience, America's Founders warned against a government keeping a standing military with its crushing burden on the wealth of a nation, not to mention getting involved in European alliances.
Oh - the permanent Russian bases were removed 15 years ago. The temporary American ones are expected to follow at some point, in the normal progression of affairs, expect for some reason, the Americans still feel a need to keep troops stationed in a large number of foreign countries. Things that might make you wonder, actually - but maybe, they are here to help keep Europe safe from the hordes.
'Now it is your problem. you are in charge.'
Why do you think someone has to be 'in charge?'
A multipolar world is the normal state of affairs - the Cold War nuclear enforced duality was extremely unusual in human affairs, and the last two decades of somewhat illusory American 'hyperpower' was even more atypical.
"Your bankers are no smarter then Americas J6PK. Drink Up! "
You got screwed by a conmen, so conmen could say, "eat your losses you dog, you were not smart enough!", right? It was almost entirely the fault of American officials failing to regulate properly the out of control derivatives gambling game, not to mention that "wink wink, here are some AAA-rated crap for you".
Europeans backed off from regulating those derivatives because Americans were put in charge of that globally after negotiations. And they failed to do that. That kind of hustling is usually related to some backwater 3rd world country. So the only logical conclusion is that USA is now 3rd world country.
Rob Dawg (member) wrote on Sat, 04/18/2009 - 10:13am.
...Okay, you've convinced me. It is entirely the fault of the decadent US. Not only that but clearly any collateral damage to other economies are our fault and responsibility to make good...
And with " treble damages" as is your custom , please .
...I anxiously await this reverse Marshall Plan...
You say you would not have deserved that ?
Anonymous wrote on Sat, 04/18/2009 - 10:32am.
'Now it is your problem. you are in charge.'
Why do you think someone has to be 'in charge?'
No. No more "questions." You are in charge. you give the orders now. I've read here all this morning nothing but bitching from outside the US. Now it is your turn to sit in the big chair and command. Commanders don't ask questions. I'm hear to be told what to do.
Werner wrote on Sat, 04/18/2009 - 10:36am.
Rob Dawg - ...I anxiously await this reverse Marshall Plan...
You say you would not have deserved that ?
Not my place to question your authority. Tell us what you want and what you want us to do. Be specific. Remember to compare and contrast with the Treaty of Versailles.
"I accept your judgement entirely"
-------------
Dawg has finally accepted his submissive side!
I'm off to Seattle.
Arf arf!
yogi, in response to my point about the banker models possibly being truly massive and complex, you reiterated that they should release everything.
Does this mean that (a) you know that their models are not massive and complex, or (b) you it's practical and useful to release massive and complex models in their entirety?
RedHulk,
Swing and a miss. Many of us didn't play along and figured this is going to fail. Lots of not smart on both sides of the pond. America seems to be taking responsibility in trying to correct the damage. Lots of dancing, BS and pain to come. You on the other hand play victim and proud of being duped. I see no sign of you taking responsibility.
They could release the total unedited truth and many folks would just assume it was just another cover up. Every day they lose more credibility.
'I think it is naive to think Europe will be of much significance in a world where it makes up only a few percent of the population and acts like a pacifist.'
Well, the CIA doesn't seem to agree with you about the EU -
'The evolution of the European Union (EU) from a regional economic agreement among six neighboring states in 1951 to today's supranational organization of 27 countries across the European continent stands as an unprecedented phenomenon in the annals of history. Dynastic unions for territorial consolidation were long the norm in Europe. On a few occasions even country-level unions were arranged - the Polish-Lithuanian Commonwealth and the Austro-Hungarian Empire were examples - but for such a large number of nation-states to cede some of their sovereignty to an overarching entity is truly unique.
Although the EU is not a federation in the strict sense, it is far more than a free-trade association such as ASEAN, NAFTA, or Mercosur, and it has many of the attributes associated with independent nations: its own flag, anthem, founding date, and currency, as well as an incipient common foreign and security policy in its dealings with other nations.
In the future, many of these nation-like characteristics are likely to be expanded. Thus, inclusion of basic intelligence on the EU has been deemed appropriate as a new, separate entity in The World Factbook. However, because of the EU's special status, this description is placed after the regular country entries.'
https://www.cia.gov/library/publications/the-world-factbook/print/ee.html
Population: 491,582,852 (July 2009 est.) - significantly bigger than U.S:, even using the sort of math that Wall Street favors.
And you can decide which number to use for its economic output -
GDP (purchasing power parity): $14.82 trillion (2008 est.)
GDP (official exchange rate): $18.85 trillion (2008 est.)
One is roughly the same as the U.S., the other is significantly larger.
But in one area, the EU is decidedly behind American standards -
Telephones - main lines in use: 238 million (2005)
Mainly because of this, though -
Telephones - mobile cellular: 466 million (2005)
Broward Horne wrote on Sat, 04/18/2009 - 10:39am.
"I accept your judgement entirely"
-------------
Dawg has finally accepted his submissive side!
Didn't say what I was going to do with it now did I? 
Point of this exercise is to show that the Europhiles who have been so vocal this morning aren't able to bell the cat either.
I'm off to Seattle.
Arf arf!
To wave goodbye to the last remnants of Boeing?
If it is a large bank like say CITI we will definitely need a count of nearby pizza parlors that deliver.
'Tell us what you want and what you want us to do. Be specific.'
Start meeting your obligations to pay your debts, instead of coming up with excuses why you can't.
Oh wait - an American wrote that.
I think a typical German would write something along the lines of stop wasting American money on a gigantic military, and don't keep believing in that creationist nonsense.
As you've probably picked up on, Werner, you've inflamed even the people who basically agree with you. At this point, the people taking issue with you here, and vice versa, are doing so not because there are important disagreement, but because they want to release the emotional response to the poking and ribbing. Probably better to let it pass.
Do look forward to any suggestions you have for us as to how we can influence our political masters to improve our situation, and enjoy any new insights you can contribute into what's driving the things we see in the daily news, and even the communal belly-aching at specific people and policies we rile against here.
Europeans aren't concerned about hordes, whether they be Muslim (as if Iranians and Turks and Moroccans even get along with each other in terms of historical antipathies) or Russian.
Teh GOOG sez:
Survey: Anti-Jew and anti-Muslim prejudice growing in EU
Published: Friday 19 September 2008
A new poll conducted by the Pew Research Center reveals that hostile views towards Jews and Muslims are on the rise in Europe, even while fundamentalism and support for terrorism appear to be dwindling in the Muslim world.
http://www.euractiv.com/en/opinion/survey-anti-jew-anti-muslim-prejudice...
Anti-Muslim prejudice in Europe: A multilevel analysis of survey data from 30 countries
We find that prejudice against Muslims was more widespread than prejudice against other immigrants, and that the effects of individual and country-level predictors of prejudice resemble those found in research on anti-minority prejudice in general. Fairly similar results were obtained for both Eastern and Western Europe, but the aggregate levels of prejudice are higher in the East. Our results imply that Muslims in Europe were particularly prone to becoming targets of prejudice, even before the attacks
of September 11.
http://www.prio.no/sptrans/-939724368/Anti-Muslim%20prejudice%20in%20Eur...
Switzerland: Ban on Minarets Would Violate Switzerland's International Human Rights Commitments and Promote Intolerance against Muslims
Vienna, 5 June 2007- The International Helsinki Federation for Human Rights (IHF) is concerned about the call by some MPs representing the Swiss People's Party, the largest party in parliament, for a referendum with the aim of banning the building of minarets in all Switzerland. The IHF urges the party not to support this initiative.
http://www.ihf-hr.org/viewbinary/viewhtml.php?doc_id=7600
"? Impose your will but think it through first. you now own the problem. no more hiding behind "Blame America."
Nobody owns the problem, it is now too global. What I trying to say Americans especially face now very dangerous times because the US political system has gone bad on top of economic collapse and problems continue to grow worse almost daily. Actions and reactions will be very extreme from personal all the way up to federal level in many cases.
The current imperial and "for rich elite only" federal level has to collapse before anything lasting could be built upon and that means Katrina style chaos in many places. Some areas will do better but some don't. It really will not matter who is right in some ideological discussion, it will be all about who will be LEFT. That is how bad I see this crisis.
Anonymous wrote on Sat, 04/18/2009 - 10:48am.
'Tell us what you want and what you want us to do. Be specific.'
Start meeting your obligations to pay your debts, instead of coming up with excuses why you can't.
I am bowled over with the depth of specificity. Not.
Like I said, all the EU has left is their bitterness. Without their whining they got nothing. That's why they are doing their best to not address the same stresses in their banking systems never mind stepping up with concrete suggestions as to how we deal with ours.
"You on the other hand play victim and proud of being duped. I see no sign of you taking responsibility. "
Your mess, you clean it up. Europeans are doing that for their part and for their banks. They just do it behind the scenes. It is especially the French and Germans that are proposing new international regulations (like during G20 meeting) but it seems American officials just want to grandstand, stall new initiatives, throw money at the problem without actually fixing anything and play "the hero card". Have Obama administration thrown the Wall Street bums out, put them to jail? No, they HIRED them and guess what, those crooks are happily looting the US Treasury and dumping all kinds of toxic assets to the taxpayers.
Maybe the stress test will reveal some new and exciting financial innovations that nobody understands.
sportsfan (member) wrote on Sat, 04/18/2009 - 10:07am.
...Young Americans in Belm:...
Nice ! That's actually what I like to see going on .
As I previously stated here, I worked all my life for (the german subsidiary of) an american company and lived for a couple of years in the US (think I may know some locations lawyerliz knows well) . Was all great and fun. But this was not the irresponsible America of today !!
So, I would say : Timeout for the niceties until America comes to it's senses and becomes a responsible (perhaps a great ) member of the family of nations again !
That's right nice debate over 2 bankrupt regions while the east comes into power.
Best the bankrupts can hope for is no civil war and massive unrest.
"(b) you it's practical and useful to release massive and complex models in their entirety? "
WHY NOT?
In case you've been asleep, it's extremely cheap to publish "massive and complex" data now. So it is "practical". Is it "useful"?
How the fuck can it hurt unless you assume they know better how to apply the information than the public, which encompasses the "market"?
'Like I said, all the EU has left is their bitterness. Without their whining they got nothing. That's why they are doing their best to not address the same stresses in their banking systems never mind stepping up with concrete suggestions as to how we deal with ours.'
It takes a Washington Consensus style arrogance to tell other nations how to run their business. Especially considering that in 1997-8, Malaysia ignored that advice, with its accompanying dire predictions about its doom, and fared the best among Asian economies by ignoring American 'advice.'
Maybe you need to read more about the nationalisation of Hypo Real Estate -
'Germany's government wants to buy Hypo Real Estate, the crisis-stricken lender, in what would be the country's first bank nationalisation since the 1930s. Soffin, the vehicle set up by the government to rescue banks, yesterday tabled a bid for Hypo, offering €1.39 a share for the bank, a 16 per cent premium to its value at the close of trading on Wednesday.
Hypo Real Estate already depends on government support for survival, having previously sought credit lines and loan guarantees worth more than €100bn (£90bn). But after losing €5.5bn last year, the bank, which has been harder hit by the credit crisis than any other German institution, remains below the minimum solvency levels required by the country's banking regulations.
The move by Soffin follows new laws introduced in Germany last week, which pave the way for bank nationalisations. Hannes Rehm, the chairman of Soffin, said he wanted to "stabilise the financial market", but a nationalisation of Hypo Real Estate will not take place without controversy.
Under German law, Soffin, which already owns a 9 per cent stake in the bank, could effectively force all shareholders to sell up if it is able to secure a majority holding. That could lead to a showdown with the US private equity group JC Flowers, which is the largest shareholder in Hypo Real Estate.
JC Flowers paid €22.50 a share for its holding in the bank a year ago, and has recently suggested that the German government should invest at €3 a share. The investor also warned last week that it would consider its legal options in the wake of the new legislation on banking nationalisation.
Nevertheless, banking experts backed the deal. Thomas Stögner, a Frankfurt-based analyst with Sal Oppenheim, said: "In my eyes, it's a very attractive offer that's more than the fair value of the company, and I'd recommend everyone take it."'
http://www.independent.co.uk/news/business/news/germany-bids-to-national...
Almost sounds like the sort of advice written here in the comments - especially the JC Flowers loss.
Oh - Werner and Yoringe aren't 'europhiles' - they are Europeans. The distinction is not exactly trivial, except as an indicator to show how seriously someone should be taken.
If a bank doesn't want FDIC insurance, TARP money, FDIC guarantees for their paper, free FED money, TALF money, PPIP involvement, or the Capital Assistance Program, they can keep as many secrets as they want. It's a free country.
See you all later.
Europe vs USA, Anti-Muslim and anti-semitism, contructive vs nonconstructive.
Gee, this doesn't have much to do with CR's theme for the thread, does it? Since we're going completely off-topic in an effort to raise hackles, I'll raise something that riled a lot of people last time I mentioned it.
The build-up of debt and asset prices in the US and UK and many other countries since 1981 coincides with a demographic fact: the baby boomers entered their peak earning, borrowing, spending, and risk asset-buying years. Now the baby boomers are getting close to entering a very different phase of their lives, when they will begin liquidating risky assets. Early baby boomers bought those assets cheaply, and saw them rise far more than inflation. Late baby boomers bought them at their peak, and see much less growth.
If all the baby boomers could liquidate these assets for much more than they bought them for, adjusted for inflation, then they would be receiving a tremendous real gain from buying assets with borrowed money. It's a free lunch. Given that baby boomers didn't save very much of their earned income (apart from these asset price increases) it would mean that they comsumed most of what they produced while they contributed actively to society (i.e. worked), and then they got to continue to consume without working for many years of retirement.
Who pays for those free lunches? Late baby boomers and the succeeding generations. Is this supportable? Not really. What we are seeing here is a deflation of the illusion that you could consume all you produced while you worked, and then you could play golf for decades. It can work for a small generation, but not for all the baby boomers. The early baby boomers can probably get this deal, but not the late baby boomers.
I am beginning to see this demographic driver as the key to understanding what's happening in our economy and the financial world. Any thoughts?
energyecon - anti-Muslim sentiment is much like anti-Jewish sentiment - just part of the inescapable heritage Europe owns. (Why so many posters here seem locked into binary thinking escapes me.)
But notice that nobody in Europe is worried about being overrun by Jews, and yet anti-Semitism remains a fairly common and disgusting part of European culture. And it is distinctly worse in Europe than in America, by any reasonable measure. Well, one continues to hope - Jas is pretty scary in his way, as are several others here - comments which do appear to be deleted, by the way - which is the general official European approach to such outbreaks of malicious hate.
It is the being replaced by Muslims in a generation which no one is worried about, except in certain segments of American political thinking. Europeans, who actually know what their countries are like to live in, find such ignorance a bit tiring, especially since it often tied to support for policies which Europeans find repugnant, such as torture in secret prisons - after all, just 20 years ago, that was occurring in parts of Europe, parts which looked to America as a uniquely decent society, even with its flaws.
Anti-muslim sentiment, and European concern about disappearing as a culture in 2 decades are not really connected. Or when it is, certainly in much, much lower numbers than the percentage of Americans that think the world is 6,000 years old. Or even the number of Americans that think Europe will be overrun by Muslims in two decades.
As we've seen clearly, this global trade contraption is complex and fragile but provides little value to the United States. Subsract out oil and a couple of minerals like chrome and nickel and the thing is probably a net negative for the U.S. now. It was only worthwhile when we had manufacturing to export.
I say we sell Europe to the Russians, Japan & Korea to the Chinese and the Middle East to India, diverst outselves of a bunch of problems that aren't our problems.
Globalism is high risk, low reward.
Were' only doing it because it's a legacy and for a few empire-builders with big egos. For 95% of America it's a losing proposition.
Especially considering that in 1997-8, Malaysia ignored that advice, with its accompanying dire predictions about its doom, and fared the best among Asian economies by ignoring American 'advice.'
----------------------
Wasn't Summers in charge of the IMF then? More's the pity the US being the owners of the IMF don't seem to want to follow their advice this time around. Perhaps walking the talk is in order.
Lobbyi$t Ben Dover wrote on Sat, 04/18/2009 - 10:26am.
...This funny, simple truth is those in Europe who played the game and lost, can blame America all they want. They were not smart enough to see it either and now play Monday morning quarterback...
I do love this post , because it clearly oozes with american arrogance and deceit !
"...played the game and lost..." I would call that simply deceit !
"...can blame America all they want..." And they are also gloating about it . Despicable !
Well, this is what we call the "ugly American" .
And for the "decent" Americans : You can't have it both ways ! You either suppress these kind of Americans or you are tainted by them !
And the facts/actions of America unfortuanately indicate that the "ugly" ones are the "real" Americans.
So, when the rest of the world hates and evades America , you know why !
http://www.nakedcapitalism.com/2009/04/guest-post-new-generation-of-whin...
Yves has a guest post that does a good job looking at the generational blame game debate.
yogi, I am anxious to see the banks' real situation as clearly as possible. I am just not sure if you are knowledgeable enough about the models the banks use to make a good judgment as to the usefulness of releasing the actual complete raw models. In my segment of the financial industry, it takes months of expert teams working around the clock to understand raw models for blocks of business that are small fractions the size of BoA's portfolio. You learn far more quickly from an abstract, as long as the right person writes it. Do you actually know the models the banks are using, so you can tell us that a complete release would be helpful, or are you just mad (as I am) at banks for playing games?
That is an interesting intellectual shuffle from Europeans aren't concerned...we can examine the Algerian experience in France for specifics on the non-existence of fears of cultural dilution and no fears of replacement...and trying to replace your previous blanket assertion with "at least we aren't as ignorant as the American public" is setting the bar rather low, don't you think?
patientrenter wrote on Sat, 04/18/2009 - 11:14am.
You are about 10 years too late to the "Lifecycle hypothesis" of economic behavior
http://online.wsj.com/public/article_print/SB119957240832770291.html
Chrysler gets 30 days and insolvent banks get 6 months. Capitalism for the autos and socialism for the banks that skimmed every shred of capital they could shave. Almost sounds like the banks had a wink from the USG to go ahead and award bonuses and options to principals at will during the boom years and uncle suga would backstop any loss.
Disgraceful.
"Europeans are doing that for their part and for their banks. They just do it behind the scenes."
Did I mentioned Duped? That pretty much says the difference in dealing with freedom. I will take freedom with the troubles any day before I take government control, Life has ups and downs and freedom when it is up it is the best ride there is. We went to long and to good and now the thumping is real hard.
Keep trying and I will keep laughing just like I do at Most of America.
RedHulk wrote on Sat, 04/18/2009 - 10:58am.
Exactly ! Excellent !
Sigh, Werner, I do think you may come here more to relieve boredom, or vent anger, than to enlighten or share common concerns and views. But I still hope your continuing to poke at people here, and their poking back at you, is just evidence of differing levels of social skills. Anyway, my advice (since you didn't ask for it), is that chilling out would be more productive than this less-than-intellectual cat-scratching.
If you do need to vent anger at the people making and supporting bad decisions by the US government, there must be other blogs that actually have a lot of people who support those bad policies. If you want to shoot someone, please choose the best target and take aim first.
Werner,
Not Arrogance but honest. Your problems are due to playing the game. Simple just like the rest of the world creative math and no common sense got you.
Werner wrote on Sat, 04/18/2009 - 11:23am.
I do love this post , because it clearly oozes with american arrogance and deceit !
...Well, this is what we call the "ugly American" .
Werner, if you think you are angry now just wait until you figure out the posters on the other side of the issue have played you like a cheap violin.
My quasi-brilliant suggestion: rig the results so that the banks that are grousing about wanting to give back their TARP money fail the stress tests.
"You are about 10 years too late to the "Lifecycle hypothesis" of economic behavior"
Why too late? Was the theory disproven 10 years ago?
bgates,
As this collapse heats up, the name calling and calling people 'crazy' will increase. If there is a push for accountability, there will be reactionary responses. This is in response to you calling me a 'shithead' without of course you saying why you feel that way. All social movements for 'justice' were 'crazy' at first. You must be some kind of reactionary.
uno mundo
'and trying to replace your previous blanket assertion'
That Europe is not frightened of being overrun by Russians in 2 years if Uncle Sam leaves its temporary barracks behind, or Muslims in 20 years?
Werner, a German, found the Muslim idea laughable - and Russia is a problem, not an enemy. At this point, many Europeans think the same of the U.S.
I will admit to a lack of fine precision in delineating exactly my point - Europeans, on the whole, are not fearful the way many Americans seem to be. Europeans are not fearful of their neighbors, they are not worried about their children being kidnapped, and while older Europeans remain almost painfully worried about war, most younger people in Germany aren't worried about, or in a memorable phrasing, wanting to rev up panzers, as a Washington Post journalist so flippantly wrote in an otherwise fairly good book several years ago.
The world has changed significantly in the last 20 years, especially in Europe. European borders are no longer controlled with death zones, mines, sharp shooters, and dogs. Most of the secret prisons are no longer used (the CIA seems to have rented a few, though), and the secret police seem to have faded away in the night, along with their masters.
Europe has undergone massive, and on the whole peaceful transformations in less than a generation. Changes that Americans seem almost completely unaware of. Just to give a fairly relevant example, how serious does all the discussion here of 'fiat' currency sound to Slovakian ears? Want to guess how many currencies a 40 year old (much less 65 year old) Slovakian has experienced, without the world, much less Slovakia, collapsing?
It is still Europe, a collection of nations, languages and customs, but it is also something else. And in a region which has by far the most intimate acquaintance with war as national policy, institutions not based on force are being constructed.
As with all things built by man, the EU is flawed and will become dust. But for now, something new has arisen, and no, it is not American. America rose to wold dominance on the ashes of Europe. The Europeans have no desire to burn everything down again - I don't know if this makes them pragmatists, as compared to pacifists. And maybe they are too scared - but any continent that can burn something like 50 million people on the altar of war and ideology may know something about why doing it again is a terrifying prospect.
Rob Dawg (member) wrote on Sat, 04/18/2009 - 11:37am.
...Werner, if you think you are angry now just wait until you figure out the posters on the other side of the issue have played you like a cheap violin...
So, it is your message too : " Avoid Americans like the plague ! "
America rose to wold dominance on the ashes of Europe.
Ahhh the crux. Europeans believe this wholeheartedly and Americans don't even understand how anyone can believe it at all.
Werner war gespielt, wie eine Geige?
Veilleicht. Aber die Amerikaner sind immer noch zum Narr gemacht, ein hässlicher Zustand.
Werner wrote on Sat, 04/18/2009 - 11:54am.
Rob Dawg (member) wrote on Sat, 04/18/2009 - 11:37am.
...Werner, if you think you are angry now just wait until you figure out the posters on the other side of the issue have played you like a cheap violin...
So, it is your message too : " Avoid Americans like the plague ! "
More of:
"If you lie with dawgs, expect fleas."
There's a certain paternalism still extant in Euro attitudes towards the US. Something akin to how parents look on unruly teenagers.
Anonymous, yes, what Europe is building feels good because it is tolerant and peaceful. I approve.
But it is also true that nature doesn't always reward pacifism. It's not pretty, but it is worth thinking about what happens when one tolerant culture submits to change at the hands of another, less tolerant culture, and how that can happen. Keep an open mind.
Anonymous, Unfortunately the transition to Uno Mundo would be very painful for both Americans and Europeans. I do not think it is a coincidence that we are approaching peak liberalism at the same time as peak wealth. The process of becoming much poorer is going to be fraught with danger.
Anonymous wrote on Sat, 04/18/2009 - 11:55am.
Werner war gespielt, wie eine Geige?
Yes, Werner is being played. Exposing the underlying emotional components of what are supposed to be rational economic perspectives makes it easier to discard all the other irrational agendas being forced on us.
'Europeans believe this wholeheartedly and Americans don't even understand how anyone can believe it at all.'
Sorry - as an American, the incredible talent that was thrown out of Europe and which was so well used in the U.S. is not really disputable, nor is the utter destruction of a well educated group of people thrown into ovens, nor the thorough bombing campaigns designed to destroy most of Europe's industrial war making capacity, nor the vast movements of armies destroying whatever they could find in a war of extirmination, nor the vast population shifts from one region.
And America was able to integrate and advance what Europe was unable to retain, in part because its political system was fundamentally better, especially compared to the barbarities which Europeans founded.
Why is this so hard to understand? America was able to save something, often the best, from the immense firestorm that swept Europe, and of course, the U.S. was not itself destroyed. And the decades that followed the U.S. becoming a leader in world affairs were better than the decades that had preceded it,. when America was not considered in the first rank.
Why this history is a source of bitterness escapes me - but please, tell me where it is inaccurate.
As someone who has done massive and complex models, huge amounts of input data are not a problem. I've used the entire microdata set for a region from the Census for certain projects. 60,000 records? Yawn. You can do that in XL. You don't even need SAS.
I did another project where I pulled 300,000+ assessor's records. Aside from the data conversion from some ancient format on tape, no problem.
I think the biggest dataset I worked with was around 8 million records, and about 50 fields for each. That wasn't even much of a problem on a high end laptop in 2002. Pretty easy now.
Things much more likely to get in the way: bad underlying data; the datasets you have don't match and you need to coordinate them; the types of fields you need aren't in the data; your model is misspecified or misprogrammed; or someone is asking you to get certain result (e.g., the banks are doing well).
The econ blogs are being diluted by long winded 'anonymous' passages of textbook lectures spewed out within seconds as if they are passages pre-written to hammer home a spin...to educate...to re-educate... That with the namecallers interspersed produce a hodge podge or collage of data and talking points concerning politics, economics, religion...all unmoderated in a stream of information that needs to be reviewed for ideology.
w,
What kind of 'danger' are we facing?
European classes are being fleeced as are the Americans and the Third Worlders.
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"And the decades that followed the U.S. becoming a leader in world affairs were better than the decades that had preceded it,. when America was not considered in the first rank."
Well, you might ask Vietnamese about that or from citizens of about ten nations in South America. And you guys almost totally lost it during Cuban Missile Crisis and the world was about a coin flip gone wrong from total destruction over few stupid missiles.
'makes it easier to discard all the other irrational agendas being forced on us.'
Werner isn't forcing anything on anyone, nor does he think he is. Why do you?
Well, this is what we call the "ugly American" .
-------------------------------------------------------------------
That's personal. Let us speak of the "ugly European"-who is the Pandora that opened the jar a thousand years ago? Who has been empire building for the last one thousand years with various trial runs and experiments around the globe? The game (history) when viewed backwards may often show the future.
This is a young continent , we have played the game very fast and learned. The European arrogance and bias come across quite clearly at times. By the way as someone who can claim some Slavic heritage and has some knowledge of their history and culture-I would watch your back.
But then again we are all just mongrels here of impure blood.
Werner isn't forcing anything on anyone, nor does he think he is. Why do you?
-------------------------
It's called projection. People project their fears and thoughts onto others.
'Well, you might ask Vietnamese about that or from citizens of about ten nations in South America.'
I'm not sure the Vietnamese cared that much about the differences between the French, the Japanese, the French again, or the Americans.
As for the South Americans - I'll give you Chile as a particularly instructive example of America's perspective about democracy in the hands of others, but note that I said a couple of better decades - 1973 was 28 years later. And let's be honest, America has never been noted for its respectful attitude towards any South American nation, while those nations tend toward an inordinate amount of pridefulness - a very poor combination from the outset. But over the years, America has learned something from its Southern American experiences - banana republic is such a delightful term of the art.
Some investor guy (member) wrote on Sat, 04/18/2009 - 12:06pm.
As someone who has done massive and complex models, huge amounts of input data are not a problem. I've used the entire microdata set for a region from the Census for certain projects. 60,000 records? Yawn. You can do that in XL. You don't even need SAS.
My expertise is in boundary conditions and discontinuities. It irks me no end to see the bracketing input assumptions for these so called stress tests. It's like they've never heard of anisotropy, non-linear response or cumulative uncertainty. I can guarantee you without seeing the model right now that if you input a 5% unemployment rate the model would spit out a negative foreclosure rate. This is why we won't get enough data to run our own tests.
This region has always allowed for the individual abstract. A collective abstract is a trap that has never been useful-the bias is coming through. What kind of sound would we make if we all played the same instrument? Next someone may suggest that we burn books or shut down this wonderful library we are all on , err ah, in-
CR, maybe after "we help Geithner and put together a list of what we think should be released", we can put together some documentation to help him interpret the results of the list... =D
"Europe has undergone massive, and on the whole peaceful transformations in less than a generation."
This is a dead thread, but this post reads like a pr release. The writer carefully chose to edit any reference to the bloody collapse of Yugoslavia...the deadly wars in Croatia and Bosnia, the genocidal efforts of the Serbs, and the complete failure of any "European institutions" to so much as stop the nightly sniper fire into Sarajevo...for years! Only American intervention and continued military presence has insured some peace in the region. So explain to me again how well the Europeans handle their tribal wars.
Is there any doubt all institutions will pass the stress test with "100% A-ok, nothing to worry about, they're all fine !" ?
Note: the stress test results will have nothing to do with reality
This is a dead thread, but this post reads like a pr release.
We baited them enough to get them to regurgitate the anti-american pablum they've been fed for decades.
Maybe we can help Geithner and put together a list of what we think should be released ...
Aghhh, maybe the turds resignation....
This is so wrong!!! I can't be first when I am always last!!!