second?
The US is obsessed with bottoms. Why discuss what could or should be done, when whistling at the booties is so much fun.
second?
HOUSTON (AP) - Halliburton Co. kicked off the oil sector's first-quarter earnings period on a dour-but-not-unexpected note Monday, reporting net income that tumbled 35 percent from a year ago and offering a poor outlook.
The company, which has corporate headquarters in Houston and Dubai, was hurt as oil and natural gas producers, stung by low prices, cut back on exploration and drilling, particularly in North America. That's bad news for service companies like Halliburton, which help producers with drilling, reservoir management and other oilfield work.
A major barometer of oil-patch activity is the U.S. rig count, which has fallen more than 50 percent since the end of August. Analysts say the count is likely to fall even more - perhaps another 20 to 30 percent - as producers continue to scale back spending amid bloated oil and gas supplies and weak demand.
In a conference call Monday, Halliburton chairman and chief executive Dave Lesar said there are no clear signs when the falloff will bottom out, and he noted the current downturn has happened more quickly than past cycles.
"Industry prospects will continue to be weak in the coming quarters," Lesar said.
Halliburton said its said net income in the January-March period fell to $378 million, or 42 cents per share, compared with $580 million, or 63 cents a share, a year ago.
700 guests online.
-------
http://www.afterthecrash.net - After the Crash, a blog shared by the CR Commenting Community. Hoopajoop on over.
Ways to view comments on this thread:
Dead simple, read only interface at: http://users.thelink.net/bobn/CR
CRC-like interface at http://realize.org/cr/crcizer/
Full Blown Interface at http://www.hoocoodanode.org/
For live chat, join us in IRC.
To access IRC with firefox, install the chatzilla add-on and go to irc://irc.realize.org:9996/calculatedrisk.
Or set your IRC client for server irc.realize.org port 9996 and /join #calculatedrisk.
Feed back via bobn
Sounds like a "Laser Tag Center" intensive economy is needed in California.
This thing must be acting up, no way I'm first.
i've got long-dated puts on one of my tenants, so at least if they go BK or bail out, I'll recoup some of the rent...
Rent one with a kitchen and a gym and you would be set. No need for a house.
http://afterthecrash.net - Home of the Doomer Story Portal and Other Stuff
So, we had an economy in which money made money from money, and that proved to be unsustainable. A substantial slice of that seems to be (commercial) real estate making money off of real estate. That wasn't sustainable, either. Maybe there is a pattern, there. When you drink the blood of the host, you have to be really careful not to grow large, relative to the host.
Seems like a silver lining to me. The greedmeisters getting some much needed compeuppance. Keep it coming, please.
Anyone have an RSS application recommendation?
Thanks,
z.
When the parking lots of office parks look the same at 11AM and 11 PM, it gets somewhat depressing to go to work there. All that is missing is the sign saying "Doomsville" (with the subtitle: Abandon All Hope All Ye That Enter Here").
When you drink the blood of the host, you have to be really careful not to grow large, relative to the host.
---------------------------
Not to worry another parasite will come and 'nest' with you, the cycle of finance continues.
Reposting, because Kunstler in small doses is recommended by a dawg who should lap this up -
'One very plain and straightforward example at hand is the announcement last week of a plan to build a high speed rail network. To be blunt about it, this is perfectly fucking stupid.'
And why does JHK think that? 'It will require a whole new track network, because high speed trains can't run on the old rights of way with their less forgiving curve ratios and grades. We would be so much better off simply fixing up and reactivating the normal-speed track system that is sitting out there rusting in the rain -- and save our more grandiose visions for a later time.'
Well, like some posters here, JHK seems to think America is no longer actually capable of pulling off the sort of major rail project that a country like Spain is, and instead should just try to get by as best it can with what it has. Which is actually good advice, in its way - bankrupts can't be choosy.
As JHK notes -
'I don't like to be misunderstood. With the airlines in a business death spiral, and mass motoring doomed, we need a national passenger rail system desperately. But we already have one that used to be the envy of the world before we abandoned it. And we don't have either the time or the resources to build a new parallel network.
But grandiosity is just another way that we lie to ourselves about where we're at and what is really possible.'
That last line sounds like vintage Kunstler - but it never seems to go down smooth with people who can't seem to grasp they live in a bankrupt nation.
It isn't the only bankrupt nation, of course - no need to be be either/or, it is a big world.
U.S. recession seen likely to go through summer
Monday April 20, 2009, 10:34 am EDT
WASHINGTON (Reuters) - A key gauge of future economic activity fell for the third month in a row in March, showing the recession may persist through the summer, a nonprofit research group said on Monday.
Just a chance, an outside chance at that, but a chance the recession may persist through the summer.
I thought only SoCal was LaLaLand.
U.S. recession seen likely to go through summer.
Summer 2012-2015?
--bh
Anyone have an RSS application recommendation?
I like Google Reader. Really handy if you already use other Google stuff like Gmail.
From the L.A. Times article:
In Ontario and the area around Los Angeles International Airport, vacancy tops 30%.
The nascent logistics hub that the Inland Empire was to become has crashed into the reality that there aren't as many containers coming into port these days.
The US is obsessed with bottoms. Why discuss what could or should be done, when whistling at the booties is so much fun.
Funny, the exact same thing happened during the dot-com bust/bubble in the Bay Area, especially in SF - lots of artists, musicians, etc kicked out of their work/loft spaces to make room for dot-coms, a few years later you couldn't give the space away.
So what the owners did is sell the building to condo developers.
It is going to be interesting to see what happens to all the excess capacity this time.
Without another bubble to come along, there could be some serious trouble ahead.
Ah yes, CSC Happy 420 wherever you are...
That Turner "leak" sure does look like a hoax to me. I googled it and I saw another story about it, and there was a quote from the ZeroHedge guy giving it credibility. That doesn't surprise me. Tyler Durden at ZeroHedge has been trying to spread panic for several days now. I wonder why.
t could be that someone sold a bunch of calls on bank stocks way back when it looked like the banks were going to be nationalized and the shareholders were going to be wiped out; if that's true, then whoever did that would be hurting really badly by now, and would be trying to spread as much panic as they could. Another possibility is that someone today is trying to sell puts on the bank stocks, knowing that they will expire worthless when the stress test results come out and all of the banks pass. Plus ça change, plus c'est la même chose.
Thank you, Comrade Coinz!. I will try that one.
z.
Could $25 have been a "generational low" for SRS?
I fully agree with Kunstler's thoughts (and profanity) on the rail system.
Trying to build a parallel high-speed rail system from scratch right now would be absolutely fucking stupid.
We don't have the money or especially the TIME for such. By 2015 we'll all be living in tents and riding alpacas to get us to the shiny new high-speed rail station.
Still a furious, bloody fight right around 7905
I want my free alpaca!
Oh never mind, we hit 7980 at some point earlier, and I missed it totally
The train plan is just another Am Tax! More government jobs and for the rest of you NO SOUP!
Make that 7890. I'll shut up now and go eat some Ramen Noodles
TBGH, yes it is, I have faith in the bears though...and not the ones that play football..
we were discussing meltdowns in the last post -
they can be quite fascinating in real time... any one remember when Stansfield Turner was nominated under Bush '41 or was it Clinton for
CIA chief? and the meltdown he had on camera... (Bill Belichek tried to do him one better when he re-signed as coach of the Jets after just one day...)
perhaps someone put it on YouTube...
The federal government should rent out the building with the free rent! Then at Obama's cabinet meeting they can count it towards the "$100 million" (yes, an M, a very SMALL number) in budget cuts they're implementing in the next 90 days!
For reference:
$3,000,000,000,000 is smaller than Obama's budget for FY10.
$11,000,000,000,000 is smaller than the national debt.
$ 100,000,000 is what Obama wants his cabinet to put a lot of time and energy into saving in 90 days.
Anyone see a disconnect here? Are we perhaps about 4 ORDERS of MAGNITUDE short in our thinking?
Even if the "million" was a typo, saving $100 billion is still just a drop in the bucket.
Sigh...
Anyone notice the rubber story on Bloomberg?
Tire Sales Signal Biggest Drop Since 1975
http://bloomberg.com/apps/news?pid=20601109&sid=an1CLWbGAAJs&refer=home
That suggests the auto industry numbers are not getting better.
Consumer purchases - I can ride on these wheels until the next inspection.
The creation of more empty retail space. I am not sure what we have more of lining the highways. Mattress stores or tire stores?
http://afterthecrash.net - Home of the Doomer Story Portal and Other Stuff
GM to cut 1,600 jobs this week
http://money.cnn.com/2009/04/20/news/companies/general_motors_cuts/index...
Ouch!!!!
By 2015 we'll all be living in tents and riding alpacas to get us to the shiny new high-speed rail station.
Thank you. My first laugh of the day. Alpaca rustlers... Alpaca herders.... Pimping your Alpaca
http://afterthecrash.net - Home of the Doomer Story Portal and Other Stuff
It's interesting that the highest vacancy rates are in the suburban locales. After the early 90s bust, these were the areas that prospered while a number of the buildings of downtown Los Angeles turned into file server drones. I wonder if the file server tenants will now move out into the suburban locations.
.......I'm thinking with all the extra cargo containers, office equipment, and idle trucking, I'm going to start manufacturing "Mobile Office Suites". For the executive TRULY "On The Go".
Available in 8X20s, 8X40s, and the new "stackable 16X53s. These new office modules can be setup anywhere at anytime and broken down at a moments notice in the middle of the night - as business dictates. Constructed of high quality industrial steel, they are imperious to rust and small arms fire. Torches don't stand a chance. We also have a Banking Module - for those "financial firm moves". Be the first business on your block to become truly "Mobile".
..........Don't mind me, I'm just waiting for the Mrs. to get finished hauling the two wheelbarrows of soil I need to the greenhouse...
- - - - -
Black 
Ranch
Reminds me of '94. I was contracting with a company that had one wing of one floor of a building in North San Jose. Their lease was up, and the landlord offered to keep their rent the same _and_ throw in the other wing at no extra charge if they'd re-up for five years. They did -- but only because they were a military contractor and moderately sure of their future cash flow.
Legalize weed and prostitution. I'm sure we could find ways to fill up that empty space.
Don't forget the shadow inventory. I know an assortment of companies who don't need anywhere near the amount of office space they have now on the Westside (Santa Monica, etc). However, nobody wants to sublet it. One has a few thousand square feet extra in a nice building with a view. Can't get $1/sq ft/mo.
The other form of shadow inventory consists of the immense number of buildings with "for lease" signs which aren't vacant. The tenants are shutting down, moving, or downsizing at the ends of their leases.
well since there are 700 lurkers here I might as well push my mash-up vid
as a tonic to Santelli's 'loser' rant... (curious how much his toupee cost him)
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=Hj6KTCCiS3A
that is not me the Duke but an actor playing me, I resemble Guy Caballero of SCTV due to my fondness for white suits, fedoras and bombastic talk
Black Star Ranch (member) wrote on Mon, 04/20/2009 - 8:56am.
.......I'm thinking with all the extra cargo containers, office equipment, and idle trucking, I'm going to start manufacturing "Mobile Office Suites". For the executive TRULY "On The Go".
Except that they're not mobile, architects have been working with cargo containers as cheap housing and office space for years.
http://weburbanist.com/2008/05/26/cargo-container-homes-and-offices/
Can you imagine how much fun it would be to read all about the eminent domain abuse if we put in an all new rail system! Not to mention all of the endangered plants and animals we would find.
I bailed from Kunstler when his diatribes degraded down to nothing but flabbergasting about body piercings and tatoos and his fantasy of the entire country devolving to the equivalent of his little upstate New York village. If he's offering a bit of rational analysis again it's about time.
"Legalize weed and prostitution. I'm sure we could find ways to fill up that empty space."
Only problem: The pot dealers and hookers won't take our credit cards, and we have no cash for them.
They're not giving it up for free.
And we don't have either the time or the resources to build a new parallel network.
Not sure we need high-speed rail, but...if you were to do it, now is the best time. When would you have more time or resources than when the private sector is in the dumps? Even if you put a super rush on the project, my prediction (and remember I'm firmly in the doomer camp) is that it wouldn't be finished before the depression is over. Parts might be functional just when we'd be able to exploit it, even though the odds say that we'd barely be out of the planning and associated graft stage by then. We'd pay for it like we're paying for everything else, except we'll be able to ride it instead of being run over like the last time we we're railroaded into spending money.
.......I'm thinking with all the extra cargo containers, office equipment, and idle trucking, I'm going to start manufacturing "Mobile Office Suites". For the executive TRULY "On The Go".
You'll be competing with the folks using the containers for housing. Why have a fabric tent when you can go all the way to steel for just a few cents more?
Bob Dobbs got me on that one . . . and even had links.
Drove through Westwood yesterday on way to UCLA. I'm guessing but there is at least 60% retail vacancy north of Wilshire to the UCLA campus on Westwood Blvd. It is a mess.
"Can you imagine how much fun it would be to read all about the eminent domain abuse if we put in an all new rail system! Not to mention all of the endangered plants and animals we would find."
Exactly. We can't even secure land for all the modernized power-grid lines that are needed far, far more desperately than high-speed rail, if we want the lights and the cappucino-maker to stay on.
Here in San Diego all of the business parks / office complexes have gigantic 'for rent' signs in front of them. Mine has two in fact. Drive thru Rancho Bernardo, Del Mar, Mira Mesa, Sorrento Valley.... Its maddening...
And to think rents were just increasing in the above mentioned places 12 months ago....
[Could $25 have been a "generational low" for SRS? ]
$1.21 will be the terminal low. Just look at all the ultras. They approach ZERO over time. Check out YTD on FAZ & FAS, both ~60% DOWN.
The real trade here is to sell LEAPS on both sides. Can't lose.
They're expanding the rail system, because they expect a surge in hobos.
deanfy, lived there 28 years ago, that would be Westwood Village, near the old Fox theatre... the apt. bldg where Richard Gere's character Julian in American Gigolo
is 2 blocks away...
Never mind.
Do they trade options on ETF Ultras? That's approaching some BS / FNM / FRE leverage... Sweet!!!!!
From last thread, re meeting with Turner:
"I was there to pick up the secret minutes of a closed meeting at the federal reserve about breeding genetically modified mexicans in order to speed up the construction of the NAFTA super-highway and to see if he could look at a clogged storm drain in one of my buildings."
Hoops, you owe me a new keyboard...
NEW YORK (AP) - The United Auto Workers is urging members to lobby the Obama administration for support as the union continues negotiations with troubled automakers General Motors Corp. and Chrysler LLC.
The UAW is facing the prospect of deeper wage and benefit cuts so that the automakers can satisfy the government's demands for more cost cuts and get more federal aid.
In an e-mail Monday, the union urged members to call the White House and "insist that workers and retirees must be treated in a fair and equitable manner in any restructuring plans."
Chrysler has until the end of April to arrange a tie-up with Italian automaker Fiat SpA and get deeper concessions from its debtholders and the UAW. GM has until June 1 to work out deals with its stakeholders.
RE: California High Speed Rail
The year is 2024, after $43.1 billion (2003 dollars) the CA-AHSR is finally
running between Oakland Caltrain Terminal and Union Station Los Angeles.
Capable of speeds of up to 185 mph except where prohibited by noise or
safety the system makes nearly 20 trips per day with more than 8000
passengers daily.
The nice terrorist with the cell phone sees the governor get on board one of
the 8 limited stop specials that make the Oakland Los Angeles journey in
under 4 hours with only 3 stops, Fresno, Bakersfield, Palmdale. The nice
terrorist calls his buddy in the central valley with the lettuce truck
that's been waiting for just such an occasion. Due to cost overruns and
reduced service expectations the right of way in places like Delano is only
100 feet and large portions are nothing more than 12ft cyclone fence (mostly
to hold back tumbleweeds from fouling the pantographs) criss-crossed by
numerous semi-automated private at grade crossings. These were concessions
to saving money rather than using emminent domain against the very powerful
Central Vally Agricultural Industry. The lettuce truck has been working the
fields for six months and by now is well known to all the rail monitoring
cameras. Perfect; $43 billion, 400 people, a governor and America's newest
societal icon of dominance and supremacy taken out in spectacular fashion
for the cost of a phone call and lettuce truck. These terrorists known as
the naftaistas not only will never be caught but their ties to their rouge
nation masters in Ottawa will never be traced. Eco-extremists cheer as the
fences come down and the free range tumbleweeds are finally free to resume
their natural migration patterns. Eventually a minor splinter group of the
governors own Green Party affiliation is blamed. The Bakersfield Dozen
(there are 13 conspirators) as they are called eventually win freedom when
Supreme Court Head Justice Lance Ito overturns their convictions when it is
learned that the lettuce found at the scene was not only non-union but
non-organic. The Greens are absolved. President Clinton says she is
pleased and only wishes her mom and dad the former Presidents would stop
feuding long enough to let her appoint them both to the Court so more such
legal ground could be broken before the next election cycle where it is
Jenna Bushes turn to be President.
Back to the present day; Anybody wanna buy this choo-choo?
The only money to be made in West Los Angeles office buildings is in selling the whole exterior of the building to purveyors of supergraphics advertisers. The whole city has become a giant Pepsi ad - it's like "Blade Runner" out here.
Don't mind me, I'm just waiting for the Mrs. to get finished hauling the two wheelbarrows of soil I need to the greenhouse...
- - - - -
Black Star Ranch
## Somehow, and I'm sure others sense this as well, it all seems quite logical. Your terpitude is outmatched only by your ingenuity in foisting physical labor off onto your wife. Same on you. By the way, the containerized offices are impervious not imperious.
Oh, come on, it's not so hard. We had a train line that spanned nearly half the country and reached speeds of 115 mph in 1934, for f**k's sake.
LOL....not bad, Dawg
- - - - -
Black Ranch
mark wrote on Mon, 04/20/2009 - 9:13am.
They're expanding the rail system, because they expect a surge in hobos.
## Well, those bums had better start traing now if they ever hope to hop a high speed freight car.
CR commenters have the most finely honed ability to find the problems in the solutions but not the solutions to the problems.
"Same on you. By the way, the containerized offices are impervious not imperious."
You're right. "Same on me". they are actually both. impervious AND imperious......LOL
- - - - -
Black Ranch
whoops - broke 840
the adults returning from lunch
Anonymous. wrote on Mon, 04/20/2009 - 9:26am.
CR commenters have the most finely honed ability to find the problems in the solutions but not the solutions to the problems.
We've figured out how to register and we know exactly what needs to be done with Timmay. That's two.
Hey Volker- isn't it turpitude? Unless you're punning on terrapins.
"CR commenters have the most finely honed ability to find the problems in the solutions but not the solutions to the problems."
....once you poke holes in the solutions used, the correct solution is nothing but child's play and common sense - thereby never considered.
- - - - -
Black Ranch
The Rolling Stones - "Memo from Turner"
"Anonymous. wrote on Mon, 04/20/2009 - 9:26am.
CR commenters have the most finely honed ability to find the problems in the solutions but not the solutions to the problems. "
+111,111
....once you poke holes in the solutions used, the correct solution is nothing but child's play and common sense - thereby never considered.
I think Doyle beat you to it: "Once you eliminate the impossible, whatever remains, no matter how improbable, must be the truth."
Our organization (along with 3 others) recently left our downtown digs when the landlord attempted to double the rent. We'd been there for 20 years, as had the rest of the floor. We all left and together bought a reasonable sized building away from downtown. The floor, last I checked, was still completely vacant a year later.
These people are schmucks. It was a pain in the ass to move, but when you get to a certain price point you don't care about the inconvenience. They were jacking the rates for our 80-year-old organization (who, for a reasonable increase would stay for another 20 years) and replacing us with...no one. What a silly way of doing business.
crispy love to hear your suggestions
CR commenters have the most finely honed ability to find the problems in the solutions but not the solutions to the problems. "
Dammit! We were counting on you for that.
was that guy Martin Armstrong accurate about Apr. 19, 2009 material turn/even? funky! i don't put stock in it but it is a strange coincidence with the rumor/news? of the stress test leaks and mkt off 3%+. too funny.
Somebody has to poke holes and find the problems with the "solutions," to make sure the solution is a solution and not just someone talking out their ass.
"Capable of speeds of up to 185 mph except where prohibited by noise or
safety" - everywhere
Martin Armstrong's wave theory has been quite accurate in calling pivot points...He's not the only one that picked this time frame either, there seems to be a perfect storm brewing..
dk wrote:
"Legalize weed and prostitution. I'm sure we could find ways to fill up that empty space. "
so we'd have a bunch stoned hookers loitering around unoccupied buildings. NOW we're talkin'
I can put you in touch with people who know people who can solve ANY problem for a nominal fee.
All they need is a picture and the name of the problem.
The creation of more empty retail space. I am not sure what we have more of lining the highways. Mattress stores or tire stores?
............................
Friend of a coworker reports the tire store he works for leases two neighboring buildings. Lease is up on one, won't be renewing it. Most of the staff is laid off or barely working, and this company has the contract for a school district and major county construction outfit.
...................................................................
Seven Trees blog
"These people are schmucks. It was a pain in the ass to move, but when you get to a certain price point you don't care about the inconvenience. They were jacking the rates for our 80-year-old organization (who, for a reasonable increase would stay for another 20 years) and replacing us with...no one. What a silly way of doing business.
Can someone in CRE explain what motivates such behavior? Is it simply that fatal cocktail, blind optimism mixed with blind greed? Because I've heard of this, too.
Comrade Kristina,
I read a lot of his writing but it is all over the board, wild accusations, tying in math, physics, mayan calendar, CIA plots, political assasinations, judge misconduct, etc, etc. It get sooooo far fetched that it's tough to give weight to it. when i was reading it i was looking around to see if i was getting punked by ashton kutscher
Stoned hookers riding high speed rail with their alpacas stimulating the economy.
"Tim waiting for 2012 wrote on Mon, 04/20/2009 - 9:34am.
crispy love to hear your suggestions "
Maybe I am just sick of being negative...is that a solution? 
Things have bottomed where I am at (business wise) and so that makes me not so negative....who knows...I just get tired of feeling like a downer, I will say one thing, since I slowed my blogging and reading of blogs, I have slept like a baby for 3 months now....I think I look 20 years younger
Rob Dawg wrote:
"Stoned hookers riding high speed rail with their alpacas stimulating the economy."
gasp!!! have you been reading my diary dawg. that's my vision of utopia.
" Rob Dawg (member) wrote on Mon, 04/20/2009 - 9:41am.
Stoned hookers riding high speed rail with their alpacas stimulating the economy."
Maybe you should take the day off, Rob. Sounds like whatever you design today would fly backwards
tmfn, yes, he can seem a bit bizarre but as I stated he is not the only wave theorist that is calling this pivot. I believe another prominent one is calling the 24th a pivot so they are very close...
anonymous1 (member) ~ LOL!
..........................
the commenter has some merit. we are a critical bunch and most of the solutions out there have more holes than swiss cheese.... then again there is really no easy way to wind this beast down... its always easier to go up than down....
"CR commenters have the most finely honed ability to find the problems in the solutions but not the solutions to the problems. "
People new to CR have the naive perception that this is a problem with simplistic solutions. Most CR commenters are well aware of potential solutions to this crisis; they are also aware of the nuances involved in implementation.
The solutions, anonymous, would involve a large number of bankruptcies and potentially inflict even more pain than is currently being experienced. They would make the USO wobble on its axis, release all of the pent-up 'liquidity' that the fed has been gorging on leading to run-away inflation, and bring the economy to its knees. Credit would evaporate, healthy businesses would shutter, and we would briefly enter an era similar to the last depression. There is no guarantee the economy could survive it, but without that kind of solution there is a certainty that we are not addressing the root of the current malaise.
Politically palatable 'solutions' are nothing more than an Epinephrine shot in an arresting cancer patient. People are looking at the six-week rally as some sort of indicator that there's a bottom to this rabbit hole. Given the volume of 'stimulus' injected into this patient, I would have been floored if we *didn't* have this type of rally. Now we get to see what happens when the shot wears off--my opinion is that the cancer will still be there.
CR commenters have the most finely honed ability to find the problems in the solutions but not the solutions to the problems.
If having my fiscal butt saved by CR and his commenters' non-solutions is wrong, I don't want to be right.
Some finely honed blinders you got there on your angry eyes, anony
Loving my SRS Thursday pick up.
So far.
Was it indeed a very odd-looking blow off top?
Suppose we find out soon.
Can someone in CRE explain what motivates such behavior? Bob Dobbs
We renegotiated our lease for 20K sf here in Sorrento Valley (SD) about year ago. Hines bout the place about two years ago. Flipped it. The new owner tried to jack up our lease. The tenants above us, qualcomm and some other computer company both bailed. Still they kept trying to tell us rents were increasing and we had a deal. They wanted to effective double the rent. We have good credit.
I dont know where we settled but it was somewhere closer to our number. Now the complex is a ghost town. We do have two extra floors for meetings or paintball. (Or when the downstairs shitters are full. Nothing like having your own bathroom on your own floor)
Something tells me the most recent buyer had factored higher rents into the cash flow projections... LOL!
Headline in the UK Telegraph: Indian business students snap up copies of Mein Kampf .
"Sales of Mein Kampf, Adolf Hitler's autobiography and apologia for his anti-semitism, are soaring in India where business students regard the dictator as a management guru."
Well, that explains tech support.
The solution is obvious. The discussion is the money and political power struggle trying to slow the fall. Bottom is known when hit, everything else is Christal ball.
GH if you're out there are you still with your puts? You mentioned loading up but i dont know what the last week did for your composure...
Cheers! 
SAN FRANCISCO (AP) - Internet pioneer Yahoo Inc. is scheduled to report its first-quarter results after the stock market closes Tuesday. The following is a summary of key developments and analyst opinion related to the period.
OVERVIEW: This is the third straight year that Yahoo has vowed to boost its sagging profits, with a different chief executive calling the shots each time. The latest, Carol Bartz, is trying to undo the damage sustained under the watch of her predecessors, former movie studio boss Terry Semel and Yahoo co-founder Jerry Yang.
Given Bartz just joined the Sunnyvale, Calif.-based company in January, expectations for first-quarter earnings aren't high. Still, there are some doubts about whether Yahoo will even be able to meet a low target because it has become more difficult to sell Internet advertising as the recession worsened.
That point was hammered home late last week when Internet search leader Google Inc., which runs the largest online ad network, reported its first-quarter revenue rose by just 6 percent - its slowest growth since the company went public in 2004.
Analysts believe Yahoo's net revenue dropped by about 10 percent in the first quarter. In a stark reminder of how poorly Yahoo has fared as the economy unraveled, Yang last year promised to engineer a turnaround that would boost Yahoo's 2009 revenue by about 25 percent - a goal the company has since abandoned.
Yahoo eliminated more than 1,500 jobs shortly before it hired Bartz. The purge apparently isn't over. After spending most of her tenure so far studying Yahoo's strengths and weaknesses, Bartz is expected to reduce Yahoo's payroll of 13,600 workers with another series of significant cuts that could shove hundreds more people into the unemployment line.
Bartz already has reshuffled Yahoo's management. The shake-up announced in February will include the departure of chief financial officer Blake Jorgensen, who plans to leave the company when Bartz finds his successor.
While Yang was CEO, Yahoo turned down a chance last May to sell to Microsoft for $47.5 billion. That decision still haunts Yahoo's shareholders, with the company's market value hovering around $20 billion.
Microsoft has made it clear it still would like to run Yahoo's search engine and sell text-based ads alongside the results. Yahoo's search engine appeals to Microsoft because it's the second largest on the Internet behind Google Inc.'s. If Bartz does a deal like that, she would want Yahoo to handle the online billboards, called "display advertising," on Microsoft's Web sites, according to a report in the Wall Street Journal.
BY THE NUMBERS: Analysts surveyed by Thomson Reuters expect Yahoo to earn 8 cents per share on revenue of $1.2 billion. The earnings estimate excludes one-time accounting charges and the revenue excludes the commissions that Yahoo pays its advertising partners.
ANALYST TAKE: Jefferies & Co. analyst Youssef Squali already is getting excited about a potential deal with Microsoft. In a recent research report, Squali estimated that Yahoo could trim its annual expenses by up to $1.3 billion by turning over its search operations to Microsoft and generate $600 million to $800 million in additional revenue by selling display advertising on Microsoft's sites.
Stifel Nicolaus & Co. analyst George Askew is similarly enthusiastic, predicting a Microsoft partnership would be "very positive" for Yahoo.
WHAT'S AHEAD: Yahoo's Web site has been testing a redesigned front page that would display a variety of applications from a variety of other Internet services. The switch to the new design is expected to occur later this year.
STOCK PERFORMANCE: Yahoo shares edged up 5 percent in the first quarter and have been gaining more ground recently amid the reports of a possible Microsoft partnership.
timmay to ppt: elmo's kicking our butt today
Interesting video of the day by Jim the Realtor.
He notes that the banks are now putting the appliances back in the houses and paying to have them cleaned up. He also notes there is 40 offers on the house. It goes to show that there are buyers out there if its priced properly.
I do wonder how much the FC moratorium helped banks arrive at this mind set. Throw a bunch more supply in the pipeline and banks may start throwing up their hands again and letting the properties go to pot...
El Cliffo wrote on Mon, 04/20/2009 - 9:49am.
"Well, that explains tech support."
----------------------------
I just sent that story and related quip to 20 of my closest friends. That was awesome.
Sell in May... live another Day?
Nades really enjoy the pictures
the 100Million which the media and the Obama adoring hoards are lapping up is the same as his paying for the White House renovations while lending gobs of tax payer money to the banks. More distractions.
Anybody know what the latest tab is on the Bear Sterns Bailout that the Fed told us was going to make money and allowed JPM to pay $10/share?
Tim in '12 ~ thanks!
Actually, Elmo did all his work early and has essentially flatlined at 7900 for 2-3 hours.
CR commenters have the most finely honed ability to find the problems in the solutions but not the solutions to the problems
I don't think you're reading the same blog I am. There are many solutions posited here. Some of my own gems have been: use the $10T in bailout $$ and pay off almost all houshold mortgage debt. Communal living in a CR tent village. And now my latest brainstorm re: the dilemma with creating a high speed rail system: Segways. You get exercise, fresh air, and alternative energy all in one. What more could one ask? Would only require a bicycle path on each side of existing railway.
See? Problems solved. Next.
--
"Southern California office market is hammered by recession"
Is CRE more overbuilt that RRE in SoCal?
SoCal is in a depression that is spreading like a cancer but don't tell that to rogue economists at UCLA Andersen Forecast. These ivory tower dopes were denying a recession until December 2008. SoCal attracted lot of dopes including economists.
Jas
It would appear Elmo has his second wind...
Bob Dobbs (member) wrote on Mon, 04/20/2009 - 9:40am.
"Can someone in CRE explain what motivates such behavior? Is it simply that fatal cocktail, blind optimism mixed with blind greed? Because I've heard of this, too. "
The whole reason we were leasing is because it was a good deal compared with purchasing and maintaining our own building. When they doubled the rent, that economic justification didn't hold water and we began searching out our own digs. For all I know, the guy managing our building went to a CRE seminar with a bunch of other managers from other cities, sat around in a bar, and compared lease rates.
In any event, they had a couple of tenants lined up to take over for the four that left, but they backed out shortly after we moved. We probably should have bought a building decades ago, but who wants the hassle if leases are reasonable?
On a recent visit, I noticed that the retail strip near UCLA on Westwood Blvd between Kinross and Weyburn is now 2/3 empty. I wonder if the landlords involved have realized yet that $4 sq/ft is closer to $6 sq/ft than it is to $0 sq/ft. probably not.
OT
CNBC anchormodel says JPM was doing patriotic duty accepting TARP money and now government changing terms for paying it back.
My bet is looking good. (2-1 no big bank pays back any TARP in April, as they stated they wanted to, 4-1 a big bank would say they wanted to pay back money but regulator told them not to.)
LET THEM FAIL, morons.
@ Rob Dawg : Turner is a unreliable source ?
Alright , this is a "reliable" source :
"Bank of America Announces Surprise 1Q Earnings" . Right ?
(It's nontheless one of the "major" american nwespapers .)
Here is the F'ING SOLUTION. Let people and businesses fail. There is no reason why everyone needs to be successful and no matter how hard we try and how much money we waste there are a lot of people who do not deserve the standard of living that they feel entitled to.
I have been a Sun shareholder for awhile and am glad that Oracle has taken the plunge and bought this company. I'm taking a significant haircut, but its better than where the company sat last Friday. I expect there will be quite a few layoffs in SV as a result of this.
" Oracle wants to be a one-stop shop for the big push among computer makers to own the data center. At the same time, Oracle's database, its middleware software and many of its applications run with Sun's operating system Solaris, and its Java programming language. These are the two biggest draws of the acquisition, Ellison told analysts on a brief conference call.
It remains to be seen if Oracle will meet its proposed financial targets. But by giving a forecast that Sun will add at least 15 cents per share to Oracle's earnings in the first full year of the deal (non-GAAP), that probably means that there are big cost-cutting plans for Sun. "
I've been watching Sun pretty closely the last few years and I think there are a lot of projects they have going that could easily be jettisoned without much impact to the bottom line.
" El Cliffo wrote on Mon, 04/20/2009 - 9:49am.
Headline in the UK Telegraph: Indian business students snap up copies of Mein Kampf .
"Sales of Mein Kampf, Adolf Hitler's autobiography and apologia for his anti-semitism, are soaring in India where business students regard the dictator as a management guru."
Well, that explains tech support."
I have a friend, a retired lawyer-turned-mediator who lived in India for a couple of years. Year before last he and his wife were invited to return and give a couple of workshops on mediation techniques in Bangalore and another town -- one to a chamber of commerce, another at a law school. He noted after that "trying to see the other guy's point of view" was considered weakness by most Indian males! Who would say so openly in class. A couple of women came up to him afterwards and said "We've been waiting years for this!"
Great market. The more gullible 401k types got coaxed in and now the next roundof fleecing begins.
--
"Let people and businesses fail."
You must be kidding. Failure is un-American and must not be permited.
Jas
I would say that the freedom to fail is our first and most important right, followed closely by the freedom to get up and try again.
To everyone who loaded up on FAZ last week: Congrats on today's return. Even after taxes, you will have earned a great return for _the year_.
So the market's getting hammered - relatively speaking - with the next leg down probable.
Or is something else going on that leads to600+ visitors at one time?
homedad43
"To everyone who loaded up on FAZ last week:"
actually, FAZ went to 11 mid-week.
I find it humorous that people come up with these grand plans to update our Train system... and the new innovative train system they will upgrade to is old news.
180mph? that's the old technology.
the newest stuff goes 220 mph. AND uses less energy.
I wish we just took some stimulus money and hired the French to come over and set up a railroad here.
Oh wait, I forgot, Americans hate everything French except for wine... since France is communist or whatever.
http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Automotrice_%C3%A0_grande_vitesse
or just look to the Japanese. Their trans are nearly as fast (and may get faster) although not as energy efficient.
and Japan isn't communist either.
http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Shinkansen
nahhh..
instead let's just tell ourselves how much better we are than everybody else. we're the leaders in the Free world! And leaders of Innovation!!!! (trademark)
ALSO:
please don't feed the trolls.
the financial oligarchs own the politicians. look at summer's pay checks the year before his accession in the current administration. TBTF was financial and political engineering at it's best. making CDS unregulated and OTC, convince me that was just random error by the congress. sure, more than a few lack brains between the ears.
bearly (member) wrote on Mon, 04/20/2009 - 10:17am.
...Great market. The more gullible 401k types got coaxed in and now the next roundof fleecing begins...
So how do you "prepare"/save for old age ?
If you save, inflation will eat your retirement monney. If you are "gullibly" invest in a 401k , the market will eat you money ! Are you goint to work till you die ?
Strange country where you can not even provide for your old age .
I'm going to post this in every thread where people discuss the "Turner Radio Network" (a.k.a the defunct former Turner basement webcast).
Stop posting the "Turner" "leak" about the stress test. The guy "leaking" it is a semi-employed janitor from a slum in Jersey City, New Jersey. All of his "leaks" are all bullshit lies designed to drive traffic to his failed white supremacist radio show/blog so he can solicit donations. His last "scoop" was when he bought one of those novelty "amero" coins and said that he had a friend inside the treasury department and a major bank tell him that they had shipped pallets of these new currency units to various fed reserve banks. High ranking federal officials hang out with and leak info to janitors in jersey slums all the time, don't you know.
In truth he is a part time janitor and window repair man (when he can get this work) in jersey city, new jersey, where he lives in and manages a crappy apartment complex twenty feet from a huge interstate. He was involved in the white nationalist movement, specifically in the "fundraising for himself" part of it, until an email leak that appeared to show him selling out the personal information of white nationalists to an FBI agent as a regular paid informant arrangement type of exchange.
Since "splitting" from the movement he has relied on various retarded, 9/11 here is a dead alien type of "leaks" to drive traffic and possibly get his radio show back.
Now you are educated. Don't post this shithead's links. He is a window repairman from new jersey who has been rejected even by the white nationalists.
http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Hal_Turner
-------
http://www.afterthecrash.net - After the Crash, a blog shared by the CR Commenting Community. Hoopajoop on over.
"Or is something else going on that leads to600+ visitors at one time?"
nope. this rally was just shorts crawling on top of each other, with a thin wedge of genuine bulls and significant chunk of complacent J6P IRA sheep supporting the whole move.
but even the stupider of the sheep were going to catch up to the 'stress test' 3 card monte game at some point.
timmay to elmo: please . . . please . . . you're harshing me dude
--
Can some genuine BBAD list all the rights Americans supposedly have?
TIA.
Jas
Pardon me, when I say "get his radio show back," I didn't mean to ever imply that he was on a radio station in any capacity. He made podcasts from his home. Extremely expensive podcasts, apparently requiring thousands of dollars per month in donations from gullible white nationalists to produce. Perhaps he was running the machinery on a boiler powered with burning dollar bills. I do not know.
-------
http://www.afterthecrash.net - After the Crash, a blog shared by the CR Commenting Community. Hoopajoop on over.
'"Capable of speeds of up to 185 mph except where prohibited by noise or safety" - everywhere
Well, it is true that the fastest ICE I have been on only hit somewhere over 270kph, if my memory is correct, somewhere between Frankfurt and Berlin. The ICE to the Frankfurt Airport train station is pretty convenient and simple way to travel, to put it mildly
Some good information about the trains -
'The "ICE" name is also used for the vehicles used on the system, which were specifically developed for the system starting in the early 1980s. There are currently 259 trainsets in five different versions of the ICE vehicles in use, named ICE 1 (deployed in 1991), ICE 2 (1996), ICE T (1999), ICE 3 (1999) and ICE TD (2001-2003, back in service 2007). The ICE 3, including its variant models, is made both by Bombardier and Siemens.'
http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/InterCityExpress
Lots of information about how various ICE trains, the first generation which is now in its third decade - http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/InterCityExpress
"Apart from domestic use, the trains can also be seen in countries neighbouring Germany. There are, for example, ICE 1 lines to Basel and Zürich, Switzerland. ICE 3 trains also run to Liège and Brussels, Belgium[2] and at lower speeds to Amsterdam in the Netherlands.[3] On June 10, 2007, a new line between Paris and Frankfurt/Stuttgart was opened, jointly operated by ICE and TGV trains.
While ICE 3M run the Paris-to-Frankfurt branch, SNCF's TGV runs from Paris to Munich (via Stuttgart), with mixed crews on both trains. [4][5]
German and Austrian ICE T trains run to Vienna, Austria. On December 9, 2007 the ICE TD was introduced on the service from Berlin via Hamburg to Århus and Copenhagen, Denmark.
The Spanish railway operator RENFE also employs trains based on ICE 3 trains (Siemens Velaro).[6] Wider versions were ordered by China for the Beijing-Tianjin high-speed rail (CRH 3) and by Russia for the Moscow - Saint Petersburg and the Moscow - Nizhny Novgorod routes (Velaro RUS).[7]"
Seems like two of 4 BRIC nations are also investing in high speed rail. But then, China and Russia do have trade surpluses.
"Strange country where you can not even provide for your old age ."
I was in formerly commie europe in the late 90s, and noticed a guy doing wire/plumbing work on a street there - in the states it would have been with a crew of 5 or 6 guys, truck, cones, etc, but this was mostly one guy and a shovel. He was in his late 40s. Imagine having to start over at that age, or even later in life, with nothing. What happened to his social safety net that came and went with the commie regime? Blown up, like the ugly statue of Stalin that watched over his childhood, most likely.
Not strange at all.
I once head that rail roads would be a lot more efficient if they were wider. The distance between rails is some how related to old horse drawn carts. Make that dimension twice as wide and now we're talking efficiency.
Y2L or Dawg you know anything about this?
Yearning to Learn (member) wrote on Mon, 04/20/2009 - 10:26am.
I wish we just took some stimulus money and hired the French to come over and set up a railroad here.
Oh wait, I forgot, Americans hate everything French except for wine... since France is communist or whatever.
http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Automotrice_%C3%A0_grande_vitesse
Oh yeah, the people who came up with that massive and massively successful infrastructure project; the Maginot Line. Put them in charge of 21st Century passenger transit using 19th Century models. Ask the nice Frenchies how much TGV really costs. Don't forget the kickbacks and write-offs via the Chunnel and RUF.
timmay to commentariat: but if we gin up some fake money and restore confidence we can have high speed rail, too. (but first we have to pay for weapons and troops in hundreds of bases overseas along with occupying two countries and don't forget dominating the high seas with carrier groups)
This news re: office vacancies brings two thoughts to my mind. First, much of the pain related to these vacancies will largely be outsourced to the owners of the buildings and the CMBS holders, who are often not local. On top of that, add that the low office rents and availability of space will eventually fuel a ferocious recovery. Expansion of business activity will get a boost from the low office rents. When will that recovery be? Who knows.
John Reeder
http://realpropertyalpha.com
Hey, the Maginot line worked. No germans crossed it.
-------
http://www.afterthecrash.net - After the Crash, a blog shared by the CR Commenting Community. Hoopajoop on over.
"Or is something else going on that leads to600+ visitors at one time?"
- last nights plug on NPR? Hmmm...
"Can some genuine BBAD list all the rights Americans supposedly have?
TIA.
Jas"
Yes, Jas, I believe the first ammendment protects our right to sit at home and mock a system that made possible a standard of living infinitely higher than the cesspools we may have originated from thousands of miles away. That right is reasonably intact despite 8 years of W, though I won't speak for the other couple dozen.
http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/List_of_amendments_to_the_United_States_Con...
185 MPH Segways would be something all Americans would support
nades (member) wrote on Mon, 04/20/2009 - 10:34am.
I once head that rail roads would be a lot more efficient if they were wider. The distance between rails is some how related to old horse drawn carts. Make that dimension twice as wide and now we're talking efficiency.
Y2L or Dawg you know anything about this?
Yeah, gage is based on millennia old standards. No big deal.
Rail transport is massively efficient. Ton-miles to die for. Only pipelines beat them and just oceangoing bulk comes close. You want to move high mass or high volume bulk cargo long distances in a time insensitive manner? Rail, rail, rail. The problem is when you try to move low mass, time sensitive cargo (people). Passenger rail transit makes as much sense as shipping coal via FedEX.
The Maginot line is kind of an interesting analogy. The French were busy perfecting the ultimate defense for the last war, based on trench warfare. The line itself was incredible. They had an underground railroad that would ferry troops from their slumber chambers to the front line and back, supplies in and out, fresh food, showers, all kinds of great morale-sustaining facilities. It's the equivalent of an un-stormable supertrench. The engineers designed it beautifully, but the leaders ordering it lacked the vision to realize that things had changed fundamentally. It's a great analogy for what's going on now.
-------
http://www.afterthecrash.net - After the Crash, a blog shared by the CR Commenting Community. Hoopajoop on over.
timmay's complaint: it's hard out here for a pimp of the empire
Bob Dobbs (member) wrote on Mon, 04/20/2009 - 10:18am.
..."Sales of Mein Kampf, Adolf Hitler's autobiography and apologia for his anti-semitism, are soaring in India ..."
Interestingly , sales of Adolf Hitler's "Mein Kampf" are in Germany forbidden ! (Maybe he wrote something true which now must be suppressed or hidden ?)
But having a portrait of Lenin in your office is ok if you are an editor of e.g. "Die Zeit" , a major german newspaper. Strange .
(Of course you can read all Lenin , Marx et al ad libido in Germany , but Hitler ? Nah. )
"It's a great analogy for what's going on now."
No, a better analogy would be a Vichy official talking about how the German threat is gone circa 1942, because most of them seem to have gone elsewhere.
"Oh yeah, the people who came up with that massive and massively successful infrastructure project; the Maginot Line. Put them in charge of 21st Century passenger transit using 19th Century models. Ask the nice Frenchies how much TGV really costs. Don't forget the kickbacks and write-offs via the Chunnel and RUF."
IIRC Passenger rail is almost always a money looser, and Deutsche Bahn also receives subsidies. Since it's infrastructure spending, the salient question is really whether the benefits outweigh the costs. Of course there's no good way to measure that.
Stinky wrote on Mon, 04/20/2009 - 10:39am.
185 MPH Segways would be something all Americans would support
You obviously don't have teenagers.
John Reeder was that a snarky comment or are you being serious about this leading to recovery...
(Either way you owe me a new keyboard! Good one! LOL!)
Werner, it sounds like germany's decision to outlaw Mein Kampf really cuts in to your novelty shop's profits. Think of what you could do if you could expand beyond nordic rune necklaces, anti-immigration posters, and right wing party literature?
-------
http://www.afterthecrash.net - After the Crash, a blog shared by the CR Commenting Community. Hoopajoop on over.
"Passenger rail transit makes as much sense as shipping coal via FedEX. " Thanks and love the analogy !
Ah, I am sure there is no connection but Werner lives in NJ, in a basement apt. that he rents after retiring from a German Co. in America.
http://afterthecrash.net - Home of the Doomer Story Portal and Other Stuff
Why spend the money on high speed rail? Spend it on better faster highways. I'd appreciate being able to travel safely at 100mph on the highway then 185mph for some portions of a rail trip.
Rob Dawg, that was hilarious!!!
Vaguely amusing:
WASHINGTON, April 20 /PRNewswire-USNewswire/ -- Consumers, industry leaders and nonprofit organizations today joined together to form Citizens Against Net Taxes, a coalition dedicated to fighting new taxes on digital goods and services downloaded to your computer or mobile device. CANT launched its campaign today with an online petition in opposition to these taxes. The petition is available on its website, http://www.citizensagainstnettaxes.com.
"As states work to address budget challenges, we are concerned that legislators will take the short-sighted position and raise taxes on digital goods -- a move that will increase costs for consumers and cause further harm to our economy," said Randy Skoglund, executive director, Americans for Technology Leadership. "State legislatures must encourage online economic activity that will help stimulate the economy. Imposing new taxes on the online sector will hurt already cash-strapped consumers, deter investment from technology companies and ultimately dampen state economic growth."
CANT is urging taxpayers to take a stand now against this added tax burden, and invites all to join the cause by signing an online petition at http://www.citizensagainstnettaxes.com.
States that impose taxes on digital goods will likely see online retailers move to states with lower or no taxes. These taxes are also likely to raise online-theft rates as consumers turn to tax-free and illegally downloadable materials. The added taxes also threaten to limit use of high-speed broadband and wireless services that could help lower energy cost.
"Imposing new, state taxes on the Internet economy is a dangerous proposition," said Larry Darby of the American Consumer Institute. "States are facing a real budget crisis, but legislatures must carefully evaluate the consequences -- both intended and unintended -- of any legislation that will raise tax rates on consumers. While taxes on digital goods may appear to be an easy way to generate revenue, in reality they will work at cross purposes with efforts to stimulate the economy and protect jobs."
Can some genuine BBAD list all the rights Americans supposedly have?
We used to have the right to whine/bitch/complain. Sadly, even that right is being suppressed.
let me cheer you up. Here's a few good ones: "green shoots," "things are deteriorating less quickly" and the ever present crowd favorite "second half recovery "
They are really cranking up the propaganda these days.
Nice link Lucifer.
Sometimes I feel some the posters here love purveying in pessimism porn... and believe me my girlfriend holds this stuff in the same light as the more popularly known porn
Does anyone know how leveraged CRE is? It is easy for novices like me to see how RRE looks with all of the information culled and compiled by the government, but what about CRE?
NEW POST at Calculated Risk.
Ways to view:
Dead simple, read only interface at: http://users.thelink.net/bobn/CR - not available for 5 minutes after this post however, to avoid 'first grappling' per request of Ken Cooper.
CRC-like interface at http://realize.org/cr/crcizer/
Full Blown Interface at http://www.hoocoodanode.org/
For live chat, and the new Mishbot feature, as well as notice of new posts on other blogs, join us in IRC.
To access IRC with firefox, install the chatzilla add-on and go to irc://irc.realize.org:9996/calculatedrisk.
Or set your IRC client for server irc.realize.org port 9996 and /join #calculatedrisk.
Feed back via bobn
Anonymous wrote on Mon, 04/20/2009 - 1:31pm.
'The "ICE" name ... named ICE 1 (deployed in 1991), ICE 2 (1996), ICE T (1999), ICE 3 (1999) and ICE TD (2001-2003, back in service 2007). The ICE 3, including its variant models
What?
No 'Vanilla ICE'?
April 20 (Bloomberg) The Office of Financial Stability today released data showing conclusively that the economy has stabilized. The new Undersecretary proudly stated that since his arrival the new training wheels he pioneered the use of has significantly reduced the wobble found in earlier editions of the economy. When questioned, he responded "We got hope that this change will have benificial results for all of America. Now, the economy will maintain traction and course on the sidewalk of Mainstreet USA."
http://afterthecrash.net - Home of the Doomer Story Portal and Other Stuff
Interestingly , sales of Adolf Hitler's "Mein Kampf" are in Germany forbidden ! (Maybe he wrote something true which now must be suppressed or hidden ?)
Huh? Trade in old copies, and possession are both clearly legal, and annotated versions can be found in public libraries. The Bavarian government ostensibly holds the copyright in Germany, and doesn't allow publication of new versions.
There are two things we can do to upgrade our transportation infrastructure.
First we can design a "fast speed rail" network to carry containers/piggybacks. The I-5 and SR-99 in California's central valley comes to mind. Either drive on/drive off technology or coordinated end transfers with the technology we have now would have been a no-brainer 100 years ago. Can't be done now without a fundamental change in governance.
Second, we can establish a "Super IHS." The IHS has been significantly degraded by urban imperatives. 2x7 lanes and 1/2 mile exits are anathema to the original intent. 2x2 or even Super 2s with 20+ mile spacing can rejuvenate entire regions unleashing local productivity and spurring a new round of competition.
It ain't perfect so please don't make that a fatal flaw unless you have a perfect in your pocket.
W,
Regarding CRE, CONsider.
Prior to the recent bust, private (in)equity firms were borrowing huge sums of money to buy highly leveraged REITs and other real estate companies such as Hilton Hotels. You know, levering up to buy leveraged assets. The ultimate in pyramid scam finance.
And some of the LBO money has the right to pay debt with more debt (toggle bonds). The option arm extended to private equity too! It worked so well with housing why not?
Bernanke viewed this as wealth building. It looks great on a spread sheet until the supply of fools ebbs. Folks with commmon sense call this tomfoolery ponzi finance.
Private equity is glorified house flipping. And soylent green is people.
Hoopajoops LTD (member) wrote on Mon, 04/20/2009 - 10:45am.
Werner, it sounds like germany's decision to outlaw Mein Kampf really cuts in to your novelty shop's profits.
Haha, no but it was to show the lopsidedness of the situation. If I can read Lenin , then why not Hitler ? (You think Lenin killed less people than Hitler ?)
One of the leading indicators you could use to judge a new company's solvency is how nice their office is multiplied by the sq. ft. Seen it twice- 'oh nice office!' Both went down in flames w/in 3 years. Nicer the office & the more of it, the quicker their burn rate. If you are starting up, you need time: time to figure out whatever game you are in. and that time costs real money b/c you got to eat & pay your personal expenses & give your wife a couple nickels to buy unnecessary garbage with while you learn...If your office RE eats your money, you run out of time and you go down. the end.
Thanks, angry saver. I just wonder if anyone has data on how levered the CRE system is. Do we even know how leveraged the properties loaned on by big banks are on their portfolios?
I drive by these old CRE and wonder how many were bought by investors like you explain with poor assumptions at future cash flow and how many are owned by folks who have equity and can recover with lower rents.
Is CRE exposure greater than RRE?
Does anyone have big picture data on CRE exposure?
goat herder, the dow is only 30 stocks. i don't even follow it. very easy to manipulate 30 stocks. pay attention to the russell 2000. before today it had a 12 month trailing PE of 40. also, harder to pump 2000 smaller stocks than 30 establishment darlings.
the dow is just a distraction.
Capital One were always such a-holes on the phone. i am very pleased to see them off 20% so far today.
This is exactly what happened in San Francisco during the dot com boom from 1998-2001, especially in the South of Market (SoMa) area. It's a nearly identical pattern.
We're all DOT COM now!
NateTG (member) wrote on Mon, 04/20/2009 - 10:58am.
...Huh? Trade in old copies, and possession are both clearly legal, and annotated versions can be found in public libraries...
I never tried to acquire a copy , but as to my knowledge , sale is in Germany forbidden . And I seriously do doubt that you will find a copy in a public library !! (But I will check that in the next days with the online catalog of my hometown /major town in southern Germany/ and risk to be added to the surveillance list of the BND) .
As to an antiquarian bookshop I an not sure , but even if trade there were allowed, I guess it would be nearly impossible to get a copy ! (Guess why ! And there are probably not manny copies surviving anyhow. )
Anonymous wrote on Mon, 04/20/2009 - 10:46am.
"Why spend the money on high speed rail? Spend it on better faster highways. I'd appreciate being able to travel safely at 100mph on the highway then 185mph for some portions of a rail trip."
Agreed, anonymous. And all you'd have to do is enforce lane discipline and speed rules like the Autobahn. Incredibly small expenditures with big results. So of course it won't happen.
"The only money to be made in West Los Angeles office buildings is in selling the whole exterior of the building to purveyors of supergraphics advertisers. The whole city has become a giant Pepsi ad - it's like "Blade Runner" out here. "
checked ! we had to go through fire marshals to get this s. off : ) , i am pretty sure the owners of our tower make plenty of $ though(increased our rents yet again - AIG will be the only one that moves)
Anonymous wrote on Mon, 04/20/2009 - 10:31am.
...Well, it is true that the fastest ICE I have been on only hit somewhere over 270kph ...
Please , please don't take offense : it's "kmh" , not "kph" .
But otherwise, you are very well informed and I do love and respect your posts !
.
The Turner Radio Network has obtained the stress test results. They are very bad. The most salient points from the stress tests appear below.
1) Of the top nineteen (19) banks in the nation, sixteen (16) are already technically insolvent. (Based upon the "alternative more adverse" scenario which had a 3.3 percent contraction of the U.S. Economy in 2009, accompanied by 8.9 percent unemployment, followed by 0.5 percent growth of the U.S. Economy but a 10.3 percent jobless in 2010.)
2) Of the 16 banks that are already technically insolvent, not even one can withstand any disruption of cash flow at all or any further deterioration in non-paying loans. (Without further government injections of cash)
3) If any two of the 16 insolvent banks go under, they will totally wipe out all remaining FDIC insurance funding.
http://turnerradionetwork.blogspot.com/2009/04/leaked-bank-stress-test-r...
"In West Los Angeles, owners are steeply discounting the monthly cost of an office -- cutting rates that, ironically, grew so high during the boom years that many companies were forced to move out and find cheaper digs."
Getting their just desserts?
Stop with the Turner Basement news network already. We can all make believe news if we wanted. It doesn't make it true...
Where are the posts?