Comments for "Default Rate Rises for Student Loans"

Nemo says:

Overeducated hippies. Get a job!

Nemo Fri Mar 27 13:43:22 2009 CDT #

Max says:

Communications degree = Starbucks barrista.

Max Fri Mar 27 13:44:30 2009 CDT #

Jas says:

THINGS THAT CR DOES NOT REPORT

CR likes to spend way too much ink on lagging and coincident indicators and HE IGNORES THREE OF THE MOST IMPORTANT LEADING INDICATORS OF THE ECONOMY AND INFLATION.

1. Small Business Economic Trend (SBET) Monthly Survey – among the single best leading indicator when it cross certain threshold.

2. ECRI’s Future Inflation Gauge (FIG), Monthly. Dopes don’t understand how important the inflation trend is in forecasting the Scam Market and the long-term USTs.

3. ECRI’s Weekly Leading Indicator (WLI)

All three were forecasting a severe recession at least six months ago. THEY WERE CLIFF DIVING! They are close to signaling depression, but we would have to wait for few months for that.

Jas

Jas Fri Mar 27 13:44:38 2009 CDT #

Anonymous says:

Explain more and provide links to back this up.

Parent Post

Anonymous Fri Mar 27 14:37:33 2009 CDT #

Peter T says:

"Dopes don’t understand ..."

Could you polish your language a bit, please (if you don't speak to a person of power, then scream all you want)?

Parent Post

Peter T Fri Mar 27 14:42:23 2009 CDT #

Anonymous says:

They took r jerbs.

Anonymous Fri Mar 27 13:45:52 2009 CDT #

iceman says:

Sadly, business major = rent-a-car counter

iceman Fri Mar 27 13:46:35 2009 CDT #

Anonymous says:

Those student loans - haven't they benn quantitatively eased yet? What's the problem here? Let's do it Monday...there's the weekly Trillion up for grabs.

Anonymous Fri Mar 27 13:46:50 2009 CDT #

EvilHenryPaulson says:

CR,
If you pop in to this thread, I left you a reply in the last thread

EvilHenryPaulson Fri Mar 27 13:47:09 2009 CDT #

ac says:

I feel bad for anybody graduating this summer.

ac Fri Mar 27 13:47:10 2009 CDT #

Fried says:

The lucky students aren't graudating this year...unemployment still rising...

March 27 (Bloomberg) -- The number of U.S. states with a jobless rate exceeding 10 percent almost doubled in February as the worst employment slump in the postwar era spread.

Nevada, North Carolina and Oregon last month joined the four other states that had previously climbed above 10 percent, according to Labor Department data released today in Washington. Michigan, at 12 percent, remained the state with the highest unemployment rate, followed by South Carolina at 11 percent and Oregon at 10.8. California and Rhode Island bring the total number of states to seven.

Fried Fri Mar 27 13:49:35 2009 CDT #

NateTG says:

I feel sorry for anyone whose job gets eaten by JS-kit.

NateTG Fri Mar 27 13:50:13 2009 CDT #

HARM says:

And student loans are one of the very few debts that are 100% non-dischargeable. You have them until they're paid off (with interest & penalties) or until you die. No if's and's or but's. And they can go after your wages, tax returns and assets --no statute of limitations.

Good luck with that $100k political science degree.

HARM Fri Mar 27 13:50:20 2009 CDT #

Basel Too says:

this is a clusterfuck waiting to explode. Unfathomable that the average student graduates woth 40K debt. Professional students $100-200K. Plenty of blame to go around, but to me the adminstrators are the most culpable. Students, you can chalk to naivete. Lenders, you can chalk to greed. Academics and administrators? You can chalk that up to stupidity and vanity.

Basel Too Fri Mar 27 13:51:05 2009 CDT #

econproph says:

actually chalk the administrators to greed also. As long as availability of student loans was there, admins chose to increase spending on non-teaching parts of universities and raise tuitions 5-8% each year. Building empires paid by student loans.

Parent Post

econproph Fri Mar 27 14:56:15 2009 CDT #

Carneades says:

Blame the Existence of Mortgage Brokers
www.TheValueatRisk.blogspot.com

Carneades Fri Mar 27 13:52:46 2009 CDT #

ShortCourage says:

iceman says, "Sadly, business major = rent-a-car counter".

And that might not be a bad thing! My best friend from High School was a biz undergrad at San Diego State Univ. I felt bad for him when he left school straight into a rental car counter job, working 12 hours a day.

He worked hard, and he is now a vice president for Enterprise.

ShortCourage Fri Mar 27 13:53:35 2009 CDT #

Anonymous says:

I have a friend who has worked for enterprise for a decade...he has been making over 300K/year for the past 5 years.

Parent Post

Anonymous Fri Mar 27 14:45:39 2009 CDT #

bearly says:

Bullish Booyah!! Sign of the new bull market... in defaults.

bearly Fri Mar 27 13:53:41 2009 CDT #

Anonymous says:

these comments suck

Anonymous Fri Mar 27 13:54:23 2009 CDT #

Homebuoy says:

Your mom sucks!!

Parent Post

Homebuoy Fri Mar 27 13:56:23 2009 CDT #

Comrade-Dope jg (jg) says:

Jas, are there free links to the ECRI datapoints (I track the SBET monthly)?

Comrade-Dope jg (jg) Fri Mar 27 13:55:24 2009 CDT #

Jas says:

http://www.businesscycle.com/news/press/

I have been collecting data for 10 years and I have all the historical data on FIG and WLI. For the past 16 months I have been sending monthly graph updates to a select private e-mail list. For the past 5 months the graph has been screaming Deflationary Depression.

Jas

Parent Post

Jas Fri Mar 27 14:20:01 2009 CDT #

ShortCourage says:

That data is old too. Can you imagine the default rates from 2007 to 2008, when the job market really started to go to hell???

ShortCourage Fri Mar 27 13:55:28 2009 CDT #

Rob Dawg says:

Buy a condo. Re-fi with cash-out. Pay off non-dischargeable debt. Jingl-mail. Welcome to the banker-dome.

Rob Dawg Fri Mar 27 13:56:31 2009 CDT #

bearly says:

[I feel bad for anybody graduating this summer]

I graduated in '82 and survived it.

bearly Fri Mar 27 13:58:47 2009 CDT #

sanjay says:

1982 is nothing like what we are going through now. That down turn engineered by the Fed.

Basic question when we bottom what lifts us up this time. We know that without the drivers of irresponsible lending and the real estate bubble during 2001-2008 GDP would have been essentially flat during that period and unemployment would have been a current levels even without the bust on Wall Street. It isn't Wall Street's bust that is harming the economy it is the economic rot that caused the Wall Street bust. If government spending and deficits were such a good idea Argentina and the FSU woudl be booming economies.

Parent Post

sanjay Fri Mar 27 14:34:30 2009 CDT #

Calculated Risk says:

EvilHenryPaulson, I just went back and read it. Thanks!

best to all.

Calculated Risk Fri Mar 27 13:59:06 2009 CDT #

Basel Too says:

ready for the 3:00 short covering - going long squeeze?

Basel Too Fri Mar 27 13:59:10 2009 CDT #

EvilHenryPaulson says:

Rob Dawg,
You are giving away the secret recipe to our proposed regulatory arbitrage credit counselling biz!

ShortCourage,
My sympathies, the entire rental car industry is hurting

EvilHenryPaulson Fri Mar 27 13:59:41 2009 CDT #

Comrade-Dope jg (jg) says:

Bankruptcy re-reform -- with discharge of any and all debts, including student loans -- will happen as soon as the pitchforks and torches come out, seems to me.

Comrade-Dope jg (jg) Fri Mar 27 14:00:03 2009 CDT #

Anonymous says:

Graduated in December with a bs in finance. $16/hr. ftl.

Anonymous Fri Mar 27 14:00:18 2009 CDT #

Jas says:

All rogue economists in America share many common bad habits and the most obvious is trying their best to be optimistic. Those who need proof should look at what economists at NABE, Conference Board, ECRI, Fed!!, etc., were saying during 2007Q2-2008Q1. They were simply horrible. Almost all of them still have the same jobs!!! We are dealing with an extremely corrupt profession.

OK, CR is better than 95% of the public econmeisters but that ain’t good enough when 99% are bad.

Jas

Jas Fri Mar 27 14:00:48 2009 CDT #

EvilHenryPaulson says:

CalculatedRisk,
No need to say thanks to me, thank you for the steady diet of posts and cultivating a good community here. It's not like I'm particularly polite when I disagree

EvilHenryPaulson Fri Mar 27 14:01:28 2009 CDT #

Lucifer says:

Has anyone noticed the news about obama sucking upto bankers. I mean.. why associate yourself with guillotine bait?

Lucifer Fri Mar 27 14:01:53 2009 CDT #

ShortCourage says:

EvilHenryPaulson,

You may be right about the rental car industry hurting...but I believe Enterprise does the majority of business renting cars through body shops and car service/repair shops. I doubt they are hurting nearly as much as the companies that focus on business and pleasure rentals.

Also, Enterprise is privately run, and very well run.

ShortCourage Fri Mar 27 14:04:08 2009 CDT #

Lucifer says:

For all the jokes about student loans. If they do not have a job good enough to pay a decent amount of tax, most of older "moralist" are going to starve to death.

Lucifer Fri Mar 27 14:04:29 2009 CDT #

EvilHenryPaulson says:

Regulatory Arbitrage Credit Counselling followup,
If you want a cheaper way to arbitrage bankruptcy, write CDS on yourself to an offshore entity owned by a blind trust in another banking friendly zone like the Isle of Man.

That way you get first dibs on all your assets, transfer ownership outside the reach of the IRS so no tax transaction, and don't miss a beat

and remember, never default on your primary residence. It's easier to discharge mortgages on secondary residences

EvilHenryPaulson Fri Mar 27 14:06:12 2009 CDT #

Broker says:

Crammed - down student loans. LOL

Broker Fri Mar 27 14:06:18 2009 CDT #

turnthatfrownupsidedown says:

as of right now, the dow and s&p are taking a break, but we are off the session lows. and college is very important. you meet people in college that last a lifetime!

turnthatfrownupsidedown Fri Mar 27 14:08:18 2009 CDT #

EvilHenryPaulson says:

ShortCourage,
Enterprise is probably the best run car rental company. Probably in the world. Until their competitors cut back more it doesn't help much, maybe automakers will cut them some slack and restart the cheap fleet sales out of desperation

EvilHenryPaulson Fri Mar 27 14:09:23 2009 CDT #

Anonymous says:

<tbody>

you meet people in college that last a lifetime!

</tbody>

----

For some, the bar will suffice.

Anonymous Fri Mar 27 14:12:19 2009 CDT #

1 currency now [yogi] :) says:

Just spoke to Media guy at FDIC. He said 1 conference call for media (quotable). 1 for bankers (don't quote). You can listen to the words, evidently, but can't repeat them. I asked if posting to a public internet forum makes me "media". He asked me what I thought. I reminded him of the 1st Amendment. He said there are historical rules...He use the term "transparent". I laughed.
I asked what the fee will be to cover the PPwhatever (PP will do). He said it will be in the rule, but you can comment beforehand. But what are the numbers and who pays it, buyer or seller? You can comment

Government in the Sunshine, or where it don't.

1 currency now [yogi] :) Fri Mar 27 14:12:57 2009 CDT #

Anonymous says:

I myself was helping out a soon to graduate stripper...errr co-ed with her student loans at the Penthouse Club.

Anonymous Fri Mar 27 14:12:59 2009 CDT #

Eric says:

Kermit is coming!

Eric Fri Mar 27 14:13:26 2009 CDT #

Barley says:

43% sounds signifcant. Time for manditory army time.

Barley Fri Mar 27 14:14:27 2009 CDT #

Jas says:

Govt sponsored student loans is one of the best evidence of the evil nature of the US govt. Scholarships and grants are OK, but pushing debt is NOT OK. Only private loans made by the real owners of the capital, and not crooked agents, are OK. BBAD don’t understand the abuses of debt aided and abetted by the USG and the Fed. Dopes don’t know how the system of the Cooks is operated in America.

Jas

Jas Fri Mar 27 14:14:33 2009 CDT #

Comrade Elmer Fudd says:

send the filthy deadbeat debtors to the colonies! oh, wait, that's us

Comrade Elmer Fudd Fri Mar 27 14:14:38 2009 CDT #

Punditry says:

i met these two incredibly cute girls attending Columbia for Nursing school. they had to borrow over 100k to attend.
crocodile tears for them

Punditry Fri Mar 27 14:16:22 2009 CDT #

Carl says:

i predict one bank in Georgia will be taken over by the FDIC today. ;)

CNBC had a news alert at just after 3 PM ET... No link on FDIC.

Carl Fri Mar 27 14:17:32 2009 CDT #

azurite says:

OT, banks lost money on investing in derivatives: http://www.oregonlive.com/newsflash/index.ssf?/base/business-96/123817554221120.xml&storylist=business

azurite Fri Mar 27 14:17:56 2009 CDT #

JimPortlandOR says:

I wrote a long comment on student loans, which the comment system spit into the toilet. I've had enough. I refuse to have to copy a comment before hitting post (and despise not having preview).

That CR hasn't indicated any plan to give up on this hopeless p.o.s called JS-kit is very discouraging. Amazing how fast a valuable blogsite turns into crap when things don't work to a minimal level of acceptability.

JimPortlandOR Fri Mar 27 14:18:16 2009 CDT #

Anonymous says:

Jas is correct, IMO. And CR's support of Geithner's plan the other day, as though any plan is better than none, also left me wanting. Been reading this blog since 2005 and am afraid that CR is still far too optimistic.

"CR likes to spend way too much ink on lagging and coincident indicators and HE IGNORES THREE OF THE MOST IMPORTANT LEADING INDICATORS OF THE ECONOMY AND INFLATION. "

Anonymous Fri Mar 27 14:19:03 2009 CDT #

Jas says:

WHO WOULD BE OPTIMISTIC WHEN THE HOME PRICES FOR ALL 25 METROS COMBINED, AS REPORTED BY RADAR LOGIC, ARE NOW FALLING AT 4.2% MONTHLY RATE (IT TRANSLATED TO 40.2% ANNUAL RATE), THE FASTEST DECLINE EVER?

Case-Shiller will confirm this next Tuesday except that it is a 3-month windowed data.

The bottom in the economy is years away if we ignore one or two quarter noise.

Jas

Parent Post

Jas Fri Mar 27 14:30:57 2009 CDT #

Anonymous says:

<I>Just spoke to Media guy at FDIC. He said 1 conference call for media (quotable). 1 for bankers (don't quote). You can listen to the words, evidently, but can't repeat them.</I>

Please be kind enough to post links to the streaming audio. =)

Anonymous Fri Mar 27 14:19:59 2009 CDT #

Anonymous says:

Chief executive officers from some of the nation’s largest banks told President Barack Obama that their companies are vital to a potential economic recovery and they want to work with the government to achieve it.
http://www.bloomberg.com/apps/news?pid=20601110&sid=aIMmtvwCdezA

Every frigging one of these bastards need to be in prison.

Anonymous Fri Mar 27 14:20:05 2009 CDT #

Jas says:

America will not recover until these people are on the run for their lives, either by the govt, e.g., the American Hitler, or by the angered public.

Jas

Parent Post

Jas Fri Mar 27 14:33:15 2009 CDT #

1 currency now [yogi] :) says:

Max says:
Today, 1:39:19 PM

“"Legacy Loans" FDIC conference call.

22:00 in. Witness the fear.

http://edg1.vcall.com/anon.vodium/vs_data/fdic/ConferenceCallforBankersMarch262009.mp3?library=pn100673&dataset=pn100673&eventid=00000000&playbutton=1&ScreenHeight=900&ScreenWidth=1440

1 currency now [yogi] :) Fri Mar 27 14:26:33 2009 CDT #

ac says:

All rogue economists in America share many common bad habits and the most obvious is trying their best to be optimistic.

It's the nature of the industry they work in.

Again, one of my favorite economists - Gary Shilling - was actually fired outright (by Merrill Lynch I believe) for predicting a recession in 1973 (he was correct).

ac Fri Mar 27 14:27:21 2009 CDT #

nades says:

Jas you run out of meds yesterday? You've been on a tear today!

(I will commend you on the leading indicators, finally adding some value other than letting us all know were BBAD. I still remember the day I came to grips with being one....)

Cheers!

nades Fri Mar 27 14:27:31 2009 CDT #

scone says:

Random questions:
So, working your way through college comes back into fashion?
Why should parents feel obligated to support their kids after 18, if they're able-bodied?
If college loans weren't available, wouldn't schools have to charge less?
And, wouldn't society subsidize really vital jobs, such as nursing, anyway (since they already do)?
And, just how many comparative literature majors do we really need, after all?
Instead of college loans, why not subsidize apprenticeship and trade school programs, rather than (less useful) liberal arts programs?

scone Fri Mar 27 14:28:59 2009 CDT #

mark says:

It would be interesting to see a comparison of how much the price of gas has risen over the last 30 years vs the cost of tuition.

mark Fri Mar 27 14:30:01 2009 CDT #

citiprank says:

Govt student loans arent a bad deal.. I borrwed 20K to supplment my scholarships and put myself through engineering school at university of illinois 10 years ago... I now pay well over 20K in taxes every year (great deal for the govt)....

Also my loans are at something like 2% and I only have to pay like 70 bucks a month (would have paid off long ago.. but interest is so low and I only owe like 6000)

Private student loans are the problem... .making them non-dischargeable... well I get the reasoning.. but come on.

citiprank Fri Mar 27 14:31:25 2009 CDT #

Anonymous says:

seriously...my real interest rate on student loans is currently negative.

Parent Post

Anonymous Fri Mar 27 14:53:49 2009 CDT #

citiprank says:

Tuition prices are a huge problem... esp at public universities.. talk about stupid behavior from the govt.

College generally results in citizens that earn a lot more and pay a lot more taxes.. .raising the barrier simply hurts society

citiprank Fri Mar 27 14:33:06 2009 CDT #

Bob Dobbs says:

You can joke that people were fools to go into debt for a poli sci degree, but the point is that very few degrees are marketable as such. I got a degree in journalism and a second major in poli sci; never worked in either field, but the practice in information gathering, critical thinking, and expository writing has served me well all my life. In this market, nobody's giving kids a chance to prove their skills in entry level jobs.

The point is that, this is obscene. We shouldn't let just any schlub into college; but committed, qualified people shouldn't have to go into lifelong debt earning the credentials to do a job that -- surprise! -- isn't there. If you know anybody who graduated with a teaching certificate in the last year or so, ask them how that's working out for them.

The Euros are right. We're bloody barbarians. And unless we take a national interest in getting the people we need to run society through higher education, we might as just bring in our technocrats from Bangalore on a contract basis. See how well that's worked out for us all in industry.

http://www.talesfromthecoas.blogspot.com

Bob Dobbs Fri Mar 27 14:36:59 2009 CDT #

Hoopajoops LTD says:

http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=xtIM_TEQxwA&eurl=http%3A%2F%2Fafterthecrash.net%2F&feature=player_embedded

Ahahahaha my posting of this video was timely!

Hoopajoops LTD Fri Mar 27 14:37:03 2009 CDT #

nades says:

Great find Hoop!

Parent Post

nades Fri Mar 27 14:53:17 2009 CDT #

notional billionaire says:

Hoopy! Awesome clip!

Parent Post

notional billionaire Fri Mar 27 16:34:12 2009 CDT #

Dead_Monkey_Bounce says:

http://features.csmonitor.com/politics/2009/03/27/fast-track-on-the-budget-%E2%80%93-does-that-mean-republicans-would-get-steamrolled/

Fast track reconciliation going in the House version of the budget. Republicans scared. Democratic senators give lip service to being opposed.

Dead_Monkey_Bounce Fri Mar 27 14:37:19 2009 CDT #

Anonymous says:

For those interested, the best practical way to slow down student loan payments is the in school deferment. It only requires 1/2 time enrollment and it's just not that hard to pick up 6 units somewhere. there is a cap on the number of months you can take the unemployment deferment, but so far the in school deferment is unlimited.

Anonymous Fri Mar 27 14:37:44 2009 CDT #

krid says:

Is it too simplistic to call higher education a huge bubble? And what will it look like when it bursts? It has all of the traditional causes... an unnatural market aided by cheap money (gov't backed grants and loans) and all sorts of promotion (like home ownership has had). The cost of higher education has far outpaced inflation as a result.

I assume that most universities built like the housing market... this thing is always going up, no? I mean why would less kids all of a sudden go to college? I'm guessing that they have planned based on some sort of expectation of growth.

So what happens? Do Universities start to close? Big state ones even?

krid Fri Mar 27 14:38:13 2009 CDT #

Mannwich says:

No kermit today. I hope rally's not over yet. Need a couple more days of quarter end tape paintin so that I can dump my remaining longs.

Mannwich Fri Mar 27 14:38:16 2009 CDT #

Barley says:

An idea: No 401k 'till the loans are paid off.

Barley Fri Mar 27 14:38:24 2009 CDT #

Guest says:

BFF starts early...

http://www.bizjournals.com/houston/stories/2009/03/23/daily53.html

The Federal Deposit Insurance Corp. on Friday seized the assets and took over as receiver for an Atlanta bank that had one branch office in Houston.
Omni National Bank, founded in 2000, had total assets of $980 million at the end of 2008, according to FDIC filings.

Guest Fri Mar 27 14:38:41 2009 CDT #

Dead_Monkey_Bounce says:

"American Hitler."

See, Jas, that's why people think you're a fucking lunatic. You say so many intelligent things, why do you feel the need to undercut them with stuff like that?

Dead_Monkey_Bounce Fri Mar 27 14:38:52 2009 CDT #

Bob Dobbs says:

uh, http://www.talesfromthecoast.blogspot.com

When you can't even type in your own URL, it's time for more coffee.

Bob Dobbs Fri Mar 27 14:39:14 2009 CDT #

Hoopajoops LTD says:

Lyrics:

<object width="425" height="344">
<embed type="application/x-shockwave-flash" width="425" height="344" src="http://www.youtube.com/v/xtIM_TEQxwA&hl=en&fs=1" allowscriptaccess="always" allowfullscreen="true"></embed>
</object>

Is this fruition of my college years,
arriving in an envelope, business-size, Sallie Mae
Corporation letterhead?
‘This is to inform you that
you haven’t made a payment on your loan since
the winter of,’ italicized, ‘1997.’
‘If at this time you cannot make the monthly payment we set,
you’ll be required to remit to us the balance in full.’
You know, I don’t think I’ll pay—what kind of fool
would feed the beast that swallows its young?
would feed the beast that swallows its young?
Clearly, eightteen isn’t old enough to drink
but old enough to sign a promissary… interesting.
Military? Sure, join up.
And who can put a pricetag on a top-notch education?
How about $50,000? $80,000? Well, that’s
just for the textbooks.
But what exactly is the consequence should I refuse to pay?
Is there still a dickensian debtor’s prison? Oh, there isn’t?
Well…
‘If at this time you cannot make the monthly payment we set,
we’ll be required to revoke what every citizen fears:
your card for digging your hole deeper in debt
to the beast that swallows its young,
to feed the beast that swallows its young,
to feed the beast that swallows its young.
Everyone must go to university.
Without a good degree,
how will you pay the lenders
who staked you while attending university?
And everyone must grow the university.
This is to inform you that I’ll never make a payment.
This is to inform you that I’ll never make a payment
to the beast that swallows its young.

Hoopajoops LTD Fri Mar 27 14:43:57 2009 CDT #

ac says:

Fast track reconciliation going in the House version of the budget. Republicans scared.

Some democrats are getting scared too - if this kind of binge borrowing and spending fails and causes a fiscal crisis it may be the end of their party.

History is not kind to deeply indebted nations that take on massive amounts of new debt.

We're just not the same kind of nation that FDR inhereted. The belief that we are may be the end of us.

ac Fri Mar 27 14:44:11 2009 CDT #

Anonymous says:

Re Jas - There's a fine line between genius and insanity. Our friend Jas crosses it a few times a day.

Anonymous Fri Mar 27 14:44:46 2009 CDT #

notional billionaire says:

- Jas' Hitler comment is certainly hyperbole, but consider the fact that we are only about five percentage points away (voter-wise) from a reality too grim to contemplate, speaking for myself. I know this is beside his basic point. In his view, it makes no difference who's in power, but on that we'll just have to agree to disagree. The objectives of the two major parties are too dissimilar to be so easily conflated, despite the corruption to be found on both sides of the aisle.

Parent Post

notional billionaire Fri Mar 27 17:08:28 2009 CDT #

Peter T says:

What does that mean for the debtors? I think student loans are not dischargeable in bankcruptcy, so isn't the debtor now a slave to the lender who can garnish the debtor's wage until the end?

Peter T Fri Mar 27 14:45:01 2009 CDT #

notional billionaire says:

Peter T - it means, in the most fundamental sense, be careful of the documents to which you attach your signature.

Parent Post

notional billionaire Fri Mar 27 17:16:18 2009 CDT #

Tim waiting for 2012 says:

Mannwich, sell anthing outside of commodities that you are close to break even in. I'll give oyu a banker's promise that it will be cheaper next month.

People used to laugh when I wanted to stay in science and not in buisenss/finance turns out they were wrong but we all lose anyways

Tim waiting for 2012 Fri Mar 27 14:45:23 2009 CDT #

Broker says:

Jas, what makes you think we are going to have a defletionary depression? I have been through an inflationary one, so I am kind of subjective on this subject.

Broker Fri Mar 27 14:46:32 2009 CDT #

Mannwich says:

@Tim waiting for 2012: I think you're right but most of my longs are commodities. Was thinking they might have a short term pullback with the next dip as well?

Mannwich Fri Mar 27 14:46:50 2009 CDT #

ac says:

<tbody>

No kermit today. I hope rally's not over yet. Need a couple more days of quarter end tape paintin so that I can dump my remaining longs.

End of day weakness in REITs is interesting...

</tbody>

ac Fri Mar 27 14:46:59 2009 CDT #

Calculated Risk says:

Here is the ECRI report today: WLI Growth at 21-Week High

The Economic Cycle Research Institute, a New York-based independent forecasting group, said its Weekly Leading Index rose to 106.3 for the week ending March 20 from 105.8 in the previous week.

The index rose to levels last seen in mid-February, and its annualized growth rate -- while still in negative territory -- reached a 21-week high at -23.2 percent, up from the prior week's rate of -23.9 percent.

It was the index's highest growth rate reading since late October, when it was -22.5 percent.

"With WLI growth recovering to a 21-week high, the pace of contraction in the U.S. economy should begin to ease in coming months," said Lakshman Achuthan, managing director at ECRI.

Not something I follow closely.

best to all

Calculated Risk Fri Mar 27 14:47:37 2009 CDT #

Tim waiting for 2012 says:

Student loans will be paid off with what's left of 529's and 401k's.

Tim waiting for 2012 Fri Mar 27 14:48:49 2009 CDT #

Anonymous says:

Becoming a Banana Republic

In its depth and suddenness, the U.S. economic and financial crisis is shockingly reminiscent of moments we have recently seen in emerging markets (and only in emerging markets): South Korea (1997), Malaysia (1998), Russia and Argentina (time and again). In each of those cases, global investors, afraid that the country or its financial sector wouldn’t be able to pay off mountainous debt, suddenly stopped lending. And in each case, that fear became self-fulfilling, as banks that couldn’t roll over their debt did, in fact, become unable to pay. This is precisely what drove Lehman Brothers into bankruptcy on September 15, causing all sources of funding to the U.S. financial sector to dry up overnight. Just as in emerging-market crises, the weakness in the banking system has quickly rippled out into the rest of the economy, causing a severe economic contraction and hardship for millions of people.
But there’s a deeper and more disturbing similarity: elite business interests—financiers, in the case of the U.S.—played a central role in creating the crisis, making ever-larger gambles, with the implicit backing of the government, until the inevitable collapse. More alarming, they are now using their influence to prevent precisely the sorts of reforms that are needed, and fast, to pull the economy out of its nosedive. The government seems helpless, or unwilling, to act against them
http://www.theatlantic.com/doc/print/200905/imf-advice

Absofuckinglutly!

Anonymous Fri Mar 27 14:50:06 2009 CDT #

ShortCourage says:

Sorry if this was posted previously...interesting article about how loan sharks encourage repayment in Malaysia:

"Malaysian Loan Sharks Hire Women to Shame Defaulting Debtors"

http://www.bloomberg.com/apps/news?pid=20601109&sid=aAnBviwQjxr4&refer=exclusive#

ShortCourage Fri Mar 27 14:51:02 2009 CDT #

Anonymous says:

AC:
We're just not the same kind of nation that FDR inhereted. The belief that we are may be the end of us.

Some of "us" maybe. Not America, nor all the Americans in it. Just our dilapidated, gamed out, not-longer-working systems of justice, administration, budget and defense.

Anonymous Fri Mar 27 14:51:51 2009 CDT #

Jas says:

How do you tell a morally bankrupt dope? He thinks that it is OK, or even good, for the govt to push debt on students and households.

Banking and finance Crooks and the USG are two sides of the same coin—both Pushing Debt, an evil act.

Jas

Jas Fri Mar 27 14:52:57 2009 CDT #

Lucifer says:

Here is a question..

If the generation after you have no jobs (or ability to spend) and thus cannot be taxed to a worthwhile degree, what will keep the boomers alive?

Lucifer Fri Mar 27 14:53:33 2009 CDT #

Jas says:

I anticipated and answered these years ago. They will suffer in their old age.

Doomers deserve everything that is coming to them. They were bred to lead to America's doom and they will not disappoint.

Jas

Parent Post

Jas Fri Mar 27 15:00:05 2009 CDT #

MS says:

bought some FAZ earlier........roll the dice again!!

Ciao
MS

MS Fri Mar 27 14:54:04 2009 CDT #

MS says:

Also adding to RJA and RJI now......not much though.

Ciao
MS

MS Fri Mar 27 14:56:18 2009 CDT #

Lobbyi$t Ben Dover says:

Responsible thing to do is Repo their degree! Just like their car and house. Can't pay for it give it back!

Lobbyi$t Ben Dover Fri Mar 27 14:57:43 2009 CDT #

Dobby says:

The Colleges and Universities kept on raising tuition even when it wasn't necessary. They are just as greedy as the guys on Wall Street. You used to be able to go to school and have a summer job and part time job that would pay off your tuition. Now kids are leaving college with 100K in debt. Basically, they have a mortgage without a house. For most people now, getting a college degree is not worth it.

Dobby Fri Mar 27 14:58:37 2009 CDT #

1 currency now [yogi] :) says:

Economics degree '83. Didn't "use" it until last year, paid off loans on time (got lucky with inflation, loan was something like 3%, savings account was paying 8 or so)
Ability to see through quant crap? Priceless

1 currency now [yogi] :) Fri Mar 27 14:58:52 2009 CDT #

Guest says:

http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=iWzwZpqb9Wc&feature=related

I imagine many feel like this guy. Linked from hoops link

Guest Fri Mar 27 15:00:33 2009 CDT #

Anonymous says:

MS - I got in FAZ at 19.39 - holding over the weekend. Just 200 shares for fun.

Anonymous Fri Mar 27 15:01:31 2009 CDT #

For-Profit College? says:

These default rates are UNDER-INFLATED because they are only a snapshot two years after a student leaves college. Think what the default rate would be if this data captured students 5 or 10 years post-college. Ugh. Also, it's worth mentioning that most of students who default a) didn't earn their degrees in the first place and b) attended private for-profit colleges like University of Phoenix. Begs questions about what colleges are doing to get students to complete their degrees, rather than just getting butts in seats. http://ifap.ed.gov/eannouncements/032609DraftStudentLoanCohDfltRatesFY07.html

For-Profit College? Fri Mar 27 15:04:40 2009 CDT #

Strom says:

Check this out - it's not on the FDIC site yet:

Omni National Bank in Georgia Shut, 21st U.S. Failure
http://www.bloomberg.com/apps/news?pid=20601087&sid=aSqaKl7GAbDQ&refer=home

Strom Fri Mar 27 15:05:07 2009 CDT #

Anonymous says:

Omni National Bank of Atlanta was seized by federal regulators, the 21st U.S. bank to fail this year, as foreclosures rise amid the recession and the highest unemployment in a quarter century.
http://www.bloomberg.com/apps/news?pid=20601110&sid=aoV297wNE6bI

Sacking them up early today.

Anonymous Fri Mar 27 15:05:30 2009 CDT #

Strom says:

That Omni Bank failure still isn't on the FDIC website, and they haven't put out a press release. Weird.

Parent Post

Strom Fri Mar 27 15:12:42 2009 CDT #

1 currency now [yogi] :) says:

From the FDIC conference call, about 50 minutes in, which the media is not supposed to quote.

Bank of the Sierra:
If a bank does not participate in the program, will they still be subject to the special assessment?
FDIC:
Yes, they will. Inaudible...
Bank: Thank you. [not sarcastic]
Inaudible
General laughter

1 currency now [yogi] :) Fri Mar 27 15:07:23 2009 CDT #

Comrade-Dope jg (jg) says:

Bob D: "...unless we take a national interest in getting the people we need to run society through higher education..."

Bob, that is what parents are for, and that is what savings by parents are for.

Pay for your own damn kids, man. I'm paying for mine (private school tuition, 8th and 9th grade).

Comrade-Dope jg (jg) Fri Mar 27 15:08:08 2009 CDT #

notional billionaire says:

This is precisely the kind of attitude that leads to aristocracy, even though we don't call it that here in our 'democracy'.

Parent Post

notional billionaire Fri Mar 27 17:31:54 2009 CDT #

HARM says:

The point is that, this is obscene. We shouldn't let just any schlub into college; but committed, qualified people shouldn't have to go into lifelong debt earning the credentials to do a job that -- surprise! -- isn't there. If you know anybody who graduated with a teaching certificate in the last year or so, ask them how that's working out for them.

People have had the "you have to go to college to be successful" propaganda drubbed into them for decades now, and it's taken hold. A bachelor's degree is now perceived to be the same as a high school diploma *used to be*. I.e., an undergrad college degree has been cheapened and diluted down to become the minimum requirement for many (if not most) white collar jobs.

And now the government has taken over the student loan financing game just like they did for the mortgage securities game (Sallie Mae, Fannie Mae --have a familiar ring?). And they've placed student loan debtors into their own "special class", thanks to bankrtuptcy code "reforms". Result? Predictable as the housing bubble. Now the cost and required debt load for higher education is becoming virtually prohibitive for all but a small group of elites.

Must be nice to be able to write the rules to Calvinball and rewrite them at will to suit your interests.

HARM Fri Mar 27 15:08:24 2009 CDT #

fastcart says:

You give us $200K- you get a very nice peice of paper...a frame is extra. Literally...LOL.

But you could get "rich" by paying 9% a year interest on property that historically appreciates at 3% (real estate). DoubLOL.

fastcart Fri Mar 27 15:10:52 2009 CDT #

linkage says:

http://www.fdic.gov/bank/individual/failed/banklist.html

linkage Fri Mar 27 15:11:22 2009 CDT #

CRbot says:

New Thread: Bank Failure #21: Omni National Bank, Atlanta
http://www.calculatedriskblog.com/2009/03/bank-failure-21-omni-national-bank.html ( 0 comments ...You could be FIRST! )

I also post comments to an irc channel as they appear on haloscan. Click for a web irc interface: http://realize.org/cr (Or join the irc server directly: irc.realize.org:9996 #calculatedrisk)

CRbot would now like to sing a little song for all his fans, and it goes something like this:

Benny... Benny... give me your answer... do.
I'm.. half CRAZY... all for the love... of you.
It won't be a ... stylish marriage.
I can't... AFFORD... ANYTHING TO EAT... MUCH LESS A FRACKIN CARRIAGE!!!
But you'll look sweet... --BOT SO HUNGRY!-- upon the seat...
Of a HOOPAJOOPS built for two... families.

I'm sorry Ben, I can't let you do that...

Rally mode + Printing Press == does not compute... does not-- com--- com... puttttrrrrhgh.

--Your systemic-failure-crashing bot

CRbot: Call me HAL.

CRbot Fri Mar 27 15:13:24 2009 CDT #

Broker says:

Ben can hardly wait to buy a truck load of student loans. Next thing you know he will be buying woman's apparel.
P.S. That might not be a bad ideea for him. That's how another genius (John Law) got away alive.

Broker Fri Mar 27 15:13:32 2009 CDT #

MS says:

anon-

similar entry and size..... shits and giggles is all I can stomach at this point.

Ciao
MS

MS Fri Mar 27 15:13:53 2009 CDT #

Tim waiting for 2012 says:

Hate those leveraged etf's but bought skf at avg price of 95

Tim waiting for 2012 Fri Mar 27 15:15:50 2009 CDT #

Buffalo Party Spokesperson says:

The Buffalo Party will create the Free University of America.
We will beggar the Ivy League schools, and their alumni's presumption of privelege.

Graduates of the Free University will form the backbone of congressional and executive
staffs. Our graduates will form the core of the civil service.

Buffalo Party Spokesperson Fri Mar 27 15:15:55 2009 CDT #

1 currency now [yogi] :) says:

v\\:* { BEHAVIOR: url(#default#VML) } o\\:* { BEHAVIOR: url(#default#VML) } w\\:* { BEHAVIOR: url(#default#VML) } .shape { BEHAVIOR: url(#default#VML) } 
More from FDIC conf. call
JPM Asset Management bank analyst: [paraphrase]"Can a bank set up a bad bank to keep an equity interest in the upside..."
Translation: Can we sell something to ourselves and get free leverage from the Treasury and a guarantee from the FDIC?
Bair: [usual measured tone] Well we wouldn't want conflicts of interest, but we're open to some form of equity participation...

Appropriate response from a real FDIC regulator:
Can I get your address for the FBI, please?

Geithner trying to make the bailouts more complicated, but after Madoff the sheeple are making some noise.

1 currency now [yogi] :) Fri Mar 27 15:17:04 2009 CDT #

ac says:

But there’s a deeper and more disturbing similarity: elite business interests—financiers, in the case of the U.S.—played a central role in creating the crisis, making ever-larger gambles, with the implicit backing of the government, until the inevitable collapse. More alarming, they are now using their influence to prevent precisely the sorts of reforms that are needed, and fast, to pull the economy out of its nosedive. The government seems helpless, or unwilling, to act against them
http://www.theatlantic.com/doc/print/200905/imf-advice

Absofuckinglutly!

The thing that seems a bit contradictory in this article is that it seems to simultaneously blame both deregulation and regulatory capture.

Maybe deregulation is symptomatic of regulatory capture, but if the regulatory apparatus was in part the tool used by the financial industry cannibalize the nation.

Again, maybe this argues against excessive dependence on a central regulatory apparatus, or maybe an even more fundamental problem with our culture.

In either case the whole regulatory capture illustrates the problem with making this a simple regulation vs. deregulation issue - the criminals may be the ones to benefit most from government involvment in finance and industry (as happened in Argentina).

ac Fri Mar 27 15:18:45 2009 CDT #

Comrade-Dope jg (jg) says:

Thanks for the ECRI link, Jas and CR.

Comrade-Dope jg (jg) Fri Mar 27 15:19:40 2009 CDT #

Anonymous says:

The point is that, this is obscene. We shouldn't let just any schlub into college; but committed, qualified people shouldn't have to go into lifelong debt earning the credentials to do a job that -- surprise! -- isn't there.

Your nation has suffered primarily because its citizens lacked a "classical education". Everything that was done to make college accessible after WW2 was brilliant. The idea that the modern world, and Republics in general, don't require agressively over-educated citizens is risible. Everyone from the egg-inspector to the dustman should read the classics and know their history, geography and anthropology. Math and science are interesting, but mastery civics and social studies make a society, literally. Without the social tools, it won't matter what kind of technologies you have.

The idea it should be otherwise is like agar agar for breeding colonies of BBAD.

If you disagree, look what happened to America, Japan and China. Isn't the ruin of three great powers in just a few decades enough to wake you up? Doesn't matter how smart the engineers are. You need a civil society for a civilization.

Anonymous Fri Mar 27 15:23:01 2009 CDT #

notional billionaire says:

- the most salient comment on the whole thread, or in the history of this site, for that matter.

Parent Post

notional billionaire Fri Mar 27 17:49:18 2009 CDT #

Barley says:

MS - ditto 200 @ 18 from yesterday...churned 4x still holding same.

Barley Fri Mar 27 15:28:22 2009 CDT #

Some Investor Guy says:

I was over at UCLA today. Far more stores and restaurants for lease than a year ago. Aren't these students spending money? What are the ones who used to work part time in retail and foodservice doing?

Some Investor Guy Fri Mar 27 16:44:07 2009 CDT #

slg says:

The most impressive thing about that Atlantic article was that it was in the Atlantic, not some (alleged) wingnut Web site!

Things have changed...

slg Fri Mar 27 18:35:27 2009 CDT #

Comments for "Default Rate Rises for Student Loans"

END