Comments for "Mauldin on Housing?"

CRbot says:

This comment thread has been HALO-IZED by CRbot.

http://realize.org/cr/halokit.php?halourl=http://www.haloscan.com/comments/calculatedrisk/6787734759748420969

CRbot Sat Mar 28 14:32:09 2009 CDT #

Lobbyi$t Ben Dover says:

wow

Lobbyi$t Ben Dover Sat Mar 28 14:40:01 2009 CDT #

Anonymous says:

ouch

Anonymous Sat Mar 28 14:43:59 2009 CDT #

RockyR says:

"ouch" was me

new computer - name wasn't saved.

not being a fan of "anonymous" posts, I felt a compulsive need to clarify that

Parent Post

RockyR Sat Mar 28 14:44:50 2009 CDT #

JK says:

Even if you see a bottom (which I doubt) soon in sales, the ongoing sales prices for houses will continue to drop. At least here in Ca. The unemployment numbers are too high and climbing. In addition, prices are still over 3X income. They have to drop to get back to a more afforability factor.

JK Sat Mar 28 14:45:13 2009 CDT #

friardaddy says:

Seriously. A subdivision in the North San Diego County area (San Elijo Hills) is still pricing homes in the "low $700's". That doesn't include mello roos or association fees. It's being marketed like it's a steal.

The obligatory question of course is: who buys these homes?

Parent Post

friardaddy Sat Mar 28 14:59:25 2009 CDT #

notional billionaire says:

-low 700's for the allure of 'El Dorado'? Peanuts.

Parent Post

notional billionaire Sat Mar 28 17:56:41 2009 CDT #

burnside says:

CR,

Since finding you and this site, I haven't been inclined to read the 'Safe Haven' contributors very often - it's been a graduation of sorts.

I'm sure I'm not alone in saying I appreciate the crispiness.

burnside Sat Mar 28 14:50:01 2009 CDT #

gab says:

I thought his comments on bonds vs stocks was important, as well as his discussion on mark-to-market rules changes. Better than his take on housing, about which I barely give a darn.

gab Sat Mar 28 14:53:57 2009 CDT #

mock turtle says:

ot

why obama was rebuffed for a position in the clinton admin
and
will likely never be a part of the obama administration

http://www.newsweek.com/id/191393/page/1

speeking truth to power

mock turtle Sat Mar 28 14:55:30 2009 CDT #

Anonymous says:

I like the Prof and agree with his outlook. I would like to point out that all the awards dinners and conferences he's going to has pumped up his waist line balloon. :-D

Anonymous Sat Mar 28 15:04:17 2009 CDT #

calmo says:

pumped up his waist line. Right. And that means he's nervous and eatin beyond his normal ...or maybe that he does not want to alienate his HF clientel where slim waist lines always arouse suspicions.
He has 7 adopted children and still refers to his wife of several decades as "his bride" ...otherwise I would not give this Bush apologist the time of day...and CR phrases like "Mauldin continues the error" still unnecessary...still swinging a baseball bat against this mosquito...still conning me.

Parent Post

calmo Sun Mar 29 08:57:43 2009 CDT #

Comrade Byzantine_Ruins says:

The obligatory question of course is: who buys these homes?

The Greater Fool.

Comrade Byzantine_Ruins Sat Mar 28 15:06:37 2009 CDT #

Lawyerliz says:

I thought nobody much was buying them these days. Am I wrong?

I think it would be a really good thing if nobody built any new houses at all for a year. I have noticed some additions going up in some neighborhoods.

Lawyerliz Sat Mar 28 15:11:09 2009 CDT #

Lawyerliz says:

What's a safe haven contributor?

Lawyerliz Sat Mar 28 15:13:41 2009 CDT #

burnside says:

Lawyerliz,

Mauldin's articles appear in a housing/econ aggregator site called 'Safe Haven'. Not all the contributors there are as credible as Mauldin.

burnside Sat Mar 28 15:20:21 2009 CDT #

Feckless Ness says:

Ahhh. Reminds me of when Tanta used to take on Gretchen.

More snark, please, CR!

Feckless Ness Sat Mar 28 15:29:30 2009 CDT #

CRbot says:

The Latest from Ritholz:

The Cult of Finance

CRbot Sat Mar 28 15:33:08 2009 CDT #

burnside says:

I see in the Krugman article, Newsweek repeats the canard that K recommends nationalizing some 8000 banks.

Otherwise a remarkably readable affair. Is he really so attached to Keynes?

burnside Sat Mar 28 15:34:06 2009 CDT #

nurple says:

Goldman Sachs Bails Out Two More Execs
http://www.businessinsider.com/goldman-sachs-bails-out-two-more-execs-2009-3

nurple Sat Mar 28 15:51:40 2009 CDT #

Anonymous says:

Jas, did you write this? Who Killed the US Pension System?
http://thebarricadeblog.com/2009/03/28/who-killed-the-us-public-pension-system/

Anonymous Sat Mar 28 15:52:05 2009 CDT #

Broker says:

CR, I am afraid that's a relative minimum on your graph.

Broker Sat Mar 28 15:55:10 2009 CDT #

Broker says:

Che Krugman is opposed to nationalisation of the banks in general, except on Fridays. LOL

Broker Sat Mar 28 15:58:29 2009 CDT #

Jas says:

From the previous thread…

Link to chart – (Cumulative Returns of Stocks and Bonds, 1801-2009):

http://www.safehaven.com/article-12949.htm

BTW, I am not a big fan of Mauling, but at times he has some good guest authors and he has access to some good data sources that he uses. His own conclusions aren’t worth much.

Jas

Jas Sat Mar 28 16:04:53 2009 CDT #

Comrade Byzantine_Ruins says:

Goldman Sachs Bails Out Two More Execs

Your tax dollars at work.

Tarponomics is so much more renumarative than conventional business practice, it's easy to see why convention business just can't compete.

Tarponomics is not just business, it's business 2.0.

Comrade Byzantine_Ruins Sat Mar 28 16:09:33 2009 CDT #

Tom Stone says:

It is remunerative too!

Parent Post

Tom Stone Sat Mar 28 18:28:21 2009 CDT #

RE says:

From David Rosenberg, Merrill Lynch

9) Seasonal factors skewing the February data

To be sure, there have been several data releases in February that have lined up on the strong side of expectations. Caveat emptor on any February data point that is seasonally adjusted at a time of the year when winter weather typically forces most of the country into hibernation. This was no ordinary February. At an average of 37 degrees (F), the month was two degrees warmer than a year ago and four degrees balmier than two years ago. As ML said, almost everyone likes to talk about how the latest data have all of a sudden signaled a turn in the economy, with retail sales, home sales, and this week’s durable goods report. Everyone was so excited about a 3.4% increase in February orders, and it seems as though the headline was taken completely at face value. But again, like so many indicators, the seasonal adjustment factor was extremely aggressive in providing a record boost (in this case) to the top-line figure. ML calculates that if a typical February adjustment factor had been used, orders would have shown a 5% collapse last month. We are still in the process of trying to figure out why this happened – it could be due to the mild weather compared to the last two years. The YoY trend in the non-seasonally smoothed orders data shows that the pace is still testing unprecedented negative terrain (-29%); ditto for shipments (-20%). The durable goods inventory/shipments ratio at 1.88 is close to an all-time high. That spells more production cutbacks and deflation pressure as we move into the second quarter.

- continued -
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RE Sat Mar 28 16:10:44 2009 CDT #

nurple says:

Bank of America plans to increase some investment bankers’ salaries by as much as 70 percent
http://www.bloomberg.com/apps/news?pid=20601087&sid=alfgiTYoDyPk&refer=home

nurple Sat Mar 28 16:10:57 2009 CDT #

RE says:

- continued -

So, we do advise caution here because we have seen a very aggressive set of seasonal factors that made the raw data look extremely strong in February. The seasonal adjustment for new home sales, for example, was the strongest since 1982. For orders, it was the strongest since the data were first released in 1992. The retail sales number in February in non-seasonally adjusted terms was the worst, a 3% decline actually, on record, and yet again a strong seasonal adjustment factor made it look flat … or flattering, we should say. Beware of reading too much into the data in February when a 40,000 raw non-seasonally adjusted housing starts number suddenly becomes a headline seasonally adjusted figure of 583,000 at an annual rate.

RE Sat Mar 28 16:11:01 2009 CDT #

JP says:

CR- The graph of revisions (from preliminary release to most recent number) is causing me to scratch my head.

In traditional stats, sampling error should have a 50% chance of being either positive or negative. So the streak of samples that are negative 27 times in a row represents a 1-in-134,217,728 chance occurance.

Is there something about the sampling that should cause initial overestimates? Because otherwise I'm taking out my tinfoil hat and screaming 'conspiracy' out my window.

JP Sat Mar 28 16:11:04 2009 CDT #

reptillian says:

New medical disorder described for politicians and bankers

They need to take their meds.

reptillian Sat Mar 28 16:13:55 2009 CDT #

Michael says:

Jack on Forbes on Fox just announced my plan publically. Jack used the word "Forbidden" in his comment. Jack reads CR and got the idea from me to say it on TV. Run with it Jack.

I think we got the right and left wingnut cocksuckers in D.C. by the balls. Let me explain; The politicians in Washington can be Forbidden from taking campaign contributions from every company who receives tax payer bailout money for their election campaigns, and that includes money from the Federal Reserve. We just got to get some ambitious rookie politician or Ron Paul to introduce the bill in congress and make it so.

Michael Sat Mar 28 16:15:48 2009 CDT #

CRbot says:

The Latest from Ritholz:

Paul Krugman is Wrong About Securitization

CRbot Sat Mar 28 16:19:08 2009 CDT #

Broker says:

Fidel Krugman CAN NOT be wrong. That's like saying Marx was wrong. What wrong with you people?

Broker Sat Mar 28 16:29:33 2009 CDT #

WAWAWA says:

So translate this for me please

Is housing market getting better or worse ?

WAWAWA Sat Mar 28 16:32:38 2009 CDT #

Broker says:

WAWAWA, the answer is "Yes".

Broker Sat Mar 28 16:51:02 2009 CDT #

energyecon says:

Is Evil Henry Paulson about today? IIRC, it was he who made the case for EMRATIO being the real tell a couple of days back or so...updated CIVPART-EMRATIO spread plot and new plot, YOY change for EMRATIO (3 mo MA) which shows this recession is the equal of the worst of the post-WWII in downward rate of change in EMRATIO. Give it time, and with some duration it will put the mid-80's double dip to shame as well.
http://energyecon.blogspot.com/

energyecon Sat Mar 28 16:51:41 2009 CDT #

Broward Horne says:

energyecon - make. graph. bigger!

Broward Horne Sat Mar 28 17:03:34 2009 CDT #

Black Star Ranch says:

"David Brooks wrote a critical column accusing Obama of overreaching, Brooks, a moderate Republican, was cajoled by three different aides and by the president himself, who...."

I am thick. I finally "get" what being a "moderate Republican" means (from the left). Duh.

Black Star Ranch Sat Mar 28 17:15:29 2009 CDT #

duke of con dao says:

BSR

a now forgotten congressman in the LBJ years once defined a moderate
as one who would extend you a four foot pole while you were drowning 8 feet from the bank...

Parent Post

duke of con dao Sun Mar 29 00:06:33 2009 CDT #

CRbot says:

New Thread: G-20: "Obama Signals Flexibility"
http://www.calculatedriskblog.com/2009/03/g-20-obama-signals-flexibility.html ( 1 comments )

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CRbot Sat Mar 28 17:41:41 2009 CDT #

sportsfan says:

Goldman Sachs Bails Out Two More Execs

Your tax dollars at work.

Byzantine Ruins, you know your statement is false. Are you going to pretend it was a joke?

What do you have against an employee borrowing money from his employer to avoid selling that employer's stock at a loss?

Does that offend your sensibilities?

sportsfan Sat Mar 28 18:15:01 2009 CDT #

Baca says:

RE: thanks for the David Rosenberg commentary. I guess this will be his last one? It always amazes me how this big Wall Street brokers can have such crappy analysts, but yet they have good economists that they never listen to.

Baca Sat Mar 28 19:02:12 2009 CDT #

energyecon says:

Broward Horne,

Thanks for the heads up - links fixed so click will display large image - evidently when you move images around in Blogger it busts the links...

energyecon Sat Mar 28 21:09:46 2009 CDT #

smc says:

I was struck by Mauldin's observation in the letter that bonds are often better than stocks, even over 40 year periods. I've been getting his letter for two years now ( thanks, I think, to a comment on this blog) and I have NEVER heard him emphasize that.

What struck me wasn't something he didn't say-- insulating & retrofitting your house returns better than stocks OR bonds OR buying a house for appreciation!

smc Sat Mar 28 21:53:48 2009 CDT #

Anonymous says:

all an increase in sales means is that the spread between asking prices and bids is moving closer together, no more. this could easily mean that asking prices are falling faster then bids, because sellers waiting for top dollar have given up or are having their hands forced via job loss, foreclosure etc.

-econman310

Anonymous Sat Mar 28 21:56:59 2009 CDT #

Anonymous says:

Huh? My head is spinning after reading this posting. I didn't understand it at all.

Anonymous Sun Mar 29 03:33:13 2009 CDT #

brucentennessee says:

Well, CR, what is an estimate other than a guess? I too, would call the preliminary numbers a guess...but even Einstein wound up with a "cosmological constant" when he couldn't get data to fit....

As far as real time data that can be used for future "guesses" I'll take orders, and last week they continue to disappoint:
http://www.rttnews.com/CorpInfo/EconomicCalendar.aspx

Page 4...

Eurozone industrial orders down more than 3 per cent and I also noticed the headline about toys for Christmas this morning...

http://finance.yahoo.com/news/Toy-luxury-stores-eye-apf-14775611.html

Makes me think orders the rest of the year will be weak....

brucentennessee Sun Mar 29 06:46:13 2009 CDT #

cfm says:

there have been 4 of those since 06. what happens as rates rise to combat the inflation. also as money pours into the stock market, that will also put pressure on rates ( for essentially the same reason) the sales number might rise as prices decline this summer into fall.

cfm Sun Mar 29 10:37:29 2009 CDT #

jm says:

After the Japanese real-estate bubble collapse in the early '90s, there was a transient rebound as builders cut prices on new homes (in Japan, mostly condos) to get rid of the land they'd bought on the way up and so reduce their debt burdens.

At the time, the prices looked like bargains to many buyers. But prices continued to slide for more than a decade, and unit sales resumed their slide.

jm Sun Mar 29 11:47:30 2009 CDT #

Anonymous says:

CR.... we'all used to rely on the brain trusts in DC and Wall Street.... no more at least that they're looking out for us.

I think they all should take offense that they all missed the signs, the screwed up econometric models for CDOs, the leverage, etc.

Its a complex model that appanently only a few now uber wealthy short selling hedge fund managers understood.

Anonymous Sun Mar 29 12:13:12 2009 CDT #

Comments for "Mauldin on Housing?"

END