Comments for DataQuick: SoCal Home Sales Up, Foreclosure Resales 56.4% of Market
Yancey Ward says:
Nemo.
Yancey Ward Tue Mar 17 12:27:37 2009 CDT #
Yancey Ward says:
And the good thing about foreclosure sales is that they can be sold over and over.
Yancey Ward Tue Mar 17 12:28:34 2009 CDT #
iceman says:
The median price paid for a Southland home was $250,000 last month, the same as in January. That was down 38.7 percent from $408,000 for February a year ago.
About $50K too much for being a reasonable home based on the avg incomes of employed SoCal'ers.
iceman Tue Mar 17 12:30:20 2009 CDT #
CRbot says:
This comment thread has been HALO-IZED by CRbot.
http://realize.org/cr/halokit.php?halourl=http://www.haloscan.com/comments/calculatedrisk/691641855847292490
CRbot Tue Mar 17 12:30:23 2009 CDT #
dr munch says:
Buddy in Newport Beach turned down a 2.9M offer in 2007. Just sold for 2.0M. "Bulletproof" neighborhood, he used to say.
dr munch Tue Mar 17 12:32:24 2009 CDT #
Zoi says:
When did he purchase and how much did he pay?
Parent Post
Zoi Tue Mar 17 13:26:28 2009 CDT #
mp says:
dr munch- "Bulletproof" neighborhood, he used to say.
Bulletproof. Is that anything like "unsinkable?"
An acquaintance, the President of The Titanic Watertight Door Company, would like to know.
mp Tue Mar 17 12:37:06 2009 CDT #
WAWAWA says:
I was thinking about this nonsense of mark-to-market that WallStreet pigs do not like.
How about I go and apply for a loan for my house and ask these banks to loan me based on mark-to-model vice mark-to-market value of my house! What would be their response to my request? They probably would laugh at me.
These WallStreet mother fuckers are hypocrites.
WAWAWA Tue Mar 17 12:39:22 2009 CDT #
Mannwich says:
So what does that happen to prices at the lower end once the higher end home prices re-adjust? Answer: Lower end prices will go even lower, won't it?
Mannwich Tue Mar 17 12:39:52 2009 CDT #
nova says:
Bulletproof" neighborhood
Kind of like "I will love you forever."
until they don't.
nova Tue Mar 17 12:39:53 2009 CDT #
Guest says:
Guest
Guest Tue Mar 17 12:41:21 2009 CDT #
popeye says:
cr cropped the first sentence at a critical point. The full sentence reads: "Southland home sales stayed above year-ago levels for the eighth consecutive month in February as the median price halted its month-to-month decline for the first time in ten months."
popeye Tue Mar 17 12:41:28 2009 CDT #
CRbot says:
The Latest from Ritholz:
AIG Retention Bonuses Paid to FORMER Employees
CRbot Tue Mar 17 12:42:01 2009 CDT #
Some Investor Guy says:
2010's scandal/bust in the making. FHA loans are 38% of the socal market. With tiny downpayments in a falling market, the FHA is going to get killed on this portfolio.
Some Investor Guy Tue Mar 17 12:42:24 2009 CDT #
CRbot says:
The Latest from Denninger:
AIG Derivatives Guys: Just Do It (Seppuku)
CRbot Tue Mar 17 12:42:35 2009 CDT #
Calculated Risk says:
Popeye, I think the median price is mostly irrelevant because of the market mix - I prefer a repeat sales index for prices like Case-Shiller than median prices.
best to all.
Calculated Risk Tue Mar 17 12:43:25 2009 CDT #
ottnott says:
The Case-Shiller index is clearly superior. Even better is a C-S index adjusted to cost per square foot.
But both of the above are still affected by the large foreclosure-related distortion of the market mix.
Parent Post
ottnott Tue Mar 17 13:01:37 2009 CDT #
ecoshift says:
Rebounding housing starts must be targeting the foreclosure market.
ecoshift Tue Mar 17 12:44:21 2009 CDT #
Anonymous says:
US FDIC extends guarantee plan, phase-out eyed
http://www.reuters.com/article/bondsNews/idUSN1727075620090317
Pretty nice commitment for an institution that doesn't have any frigging money =-X
Anonymous Tue Mar 17 12:45:00 2009 CDT #
JBR says:
"This build up in supply will eventually lead to more price declines in the expensive areas "
It really is like watching paint dry on growing grass here in Hollywood/Weho/West LA. And, anecdotally, anything "reasonably" priced still gets multiple offers. There sure are a lot of overpriced properties just sitting there, the resiliency of sellers here is astounding. Oh well. . .
JBR Tue Mar 17 12:45:01 2009 CDT #
Some Investor Guy says:
With 3.5% down, and selling costs typically at least 5%, an FHA loan is underwater the day it is purchased. In a declining market, it just gets worse. The FHA will have horrendous losses in LA county on its 2009 vintage.
Some Investor Guy Tue Mar 17 12:45:28 2009 CDT #
Anonymous says:
Fiscal Responsibility Fluid just touched $49
Anonymous Tue Mar 17 12:45:34 2009 CDT #
Anonymous says:
Only 6 SFRs sold in my OC beach community during Feb. As of today there are almost 500 on the market.
Cliff diving coming very soon.
Anonymous Tue Mar 17 12:47:28 2009 CDT #
ac says:
Fiscal Responsibility Fluid just touched $49
Nice... let's go for $50.
ac Tue Mar 17 12:47:48 2009 CDT #
Not the N Word says:
"This build up in supply will eventually lead to more price declines in the expensive areas "
Here in Taos, NM nobody seems to want the decline..so they just take their house off the market..wonder if the houses will just sink into the earth and become part of the natural landscape instead of being sold to someone who want to live there.
Not the N Word Tue Mar 17 12:49:48 2009 CDT #
Anonymous says:
Foreclosure sales up, Organic sales trickling slower and slower. A very familiar story in the Southland. On the Westside, where there are less foreclosures, sales are almost at a standstill. As inventory continues to grow, prices will decline this summer. It's quite possible some homedebtors will just "moonwalk" away from their mortgages, being unable to sell.
As foreclosure sales dominate the market, and the Alt-A/Option ARM Asteroid hits, savy buyers will wait for the distress sales.
http://www.westsideremeltdown.blogspot.com
Anonymous Tue Mar 17 12:50:19 2009 CDT #
Apprentice says:
Thanks to Dead Monkey bounce and others for answers on The Fed.
So they really have a paperprestidigitizer machine. And now the IMF has one too.
And you guyz just wanted a pony?
Apprentice Tue Mar 17 12:52:16 2009 CDT #
OCDan says:
It is worth repeating again:
Let us assume an average household income of $75-80K.
That means housing should be around $250K tops.
Using 6% as a guide:
That means for a $300K home, you would be paying $1800/month for 30 years just for the note.
Add another $750 for impounds, i.e taxes, insurances, and the like, esp. if you don't put down at least 20%.
Throw in another $100-200/month in upkeep and sweat equity, i.e. mowing the lawn or hiring someone to mow, as well as, the cost of watrering said lawn.
By the time you are done, that house is running near $3K for the privilege of paying off a 30-year note.
Also, keep in mind that the impounds really never disappear , even after 30 years.
Don't pay the county here in CA, you will find out real fast who really owns your home.
Therefore, even after paying off $300K with about $800K, counting interest, you still get to pay about $1K/month just to live in the house.
Lastly, it bears repeating...during payoff of mortgage you assume all responsibility. Sure, you have a warranty, but see how that works out, esp. in year 26 of that roof or water heater!
The cost of owning a home is still far greater than it is worth for most people here in Southern Cal, esp. based on incomes.
Sure, if you make $250K a year, a $400K home isn't too bad. However, that isn't going to work for the $100K crowd!
OCDan Tue Mar 17 12:52:30 2009 CDT #
Yancey Ward says:
Indeed. I am a homeowner for 10 years now, but am definitely of the opinion that it is a sucker's game when you get down to the bottom of it. The government owns that property, and you will always be a renter.
Parent Post
Yancey Ward Tue Mar 17 13:26:48 2009 CDT #
Nigel says:
It's a pretty bad situation, but what the volume indicates is the beginning of a restoration of confidence.
I would say this will start creating "move-up" buyers, but the former foreclosed "owners" aren't moving up and they won't be buying again for a while, if ever.
Higher end homes will have to start coming down, and we may end up with a new class of "move-down" buyers that will prop up the lower end housing market and sellers besides the banks may have a chance of unloading their properties.
Nigel Tue Mar 17 12:54:49 2009 CDT #
Morocco Bama says:
Here's a nice graph. Let's discuss our recovery's (if there is one) effects on this graph. When you invest in this system, is it really a sound investment when you extend the time horizon? I don't think so. In fact, I would say you are investing in the planet's demise.
http://www.whole-systems.org/extinctions.html
Morocco Bama Tue Mar 17 12:56:45 2009 CDT #
bfatz says:
Inflation is coming, prepare!...or go broke.
And yes, your assets IE: Home, will still be deflating....fun isn't it.
$60 plus Oil coming to a summer near you.
bfatz Tue Mar 17 12:57:34 2009 CDT #
ottnott says:
the price reductions are definitely moving into pricier areas here in San Diego.
I live in the "cheaper" zone of an expensive area. The "cheapest" zone is being hit hard, with lots of foreclosures and prices down 40% or more from peak.
My "cheaper" zone was only down about 10% from peak by Summer 2008, but with very few sales and sellers holding out at initial asking prices. In just the last 3-4 months, more supply has come to market and sellers are being aggressive about lowering prices and competing with other units on the market. I estimate that prices have dropped about 20% just in the last 4-5 months, and sales are still very slow.
ottnott Tue Mar 17 12:58:36 2009 CDT #
Michael says:
I'm announcing here on CR for the firs time;
The "Save America" Campaign.
Uncle Sam wants you to start saving money now, to help Save America. My new bumper sticker; Save to Save America! Will be free to anyone who requests one, while supplies last.
You Can help Save America by participating in this campaign locally. Just have these bumper stickers printed up with the slogan; "Save to Save America", and distribute them free of charge if you have the means. Thank You.
Michael Tue Mar 17 12:59:05 2009 CDT #
Michael says:
Don't Buy Stuff you can't Afford from SNL.
http://www.hulu.com/watch/1389/saturday-night-live-dont-buy-stuff
Parent Post
Michael Tue Mar 17 13:09:23 2009 CDT #
Dead_Monkey_Bounce says:
Apprentice: It's not clear what the IMF has or doesn't have from the small amount I've read so far. We'll see. The IMF isn't a sovereign, but I suppose that it could pass around negotiable IOUs, which maybe is what will happen.
Dead_Monkey_Bounce Tue Mar 17 12:59:33 2009 CDT #
Morocco Bama says:
No more subdivisions.
Morocco Bama Tue Mar 17 12:59:46 2009 CDT #
Basel Too says:
the price reductions are definitely moving into pricier areas here in San Diego.
$417/$625 are going to be the magic numbers...
Basel Too Tue Mar 17 13:00:04 2009 CDT #
Anonymous says:
From a Newsweek article:
"AIG: Is there enough fingers for this dike?" ;) ;) :-D
Anonymous Tue Mar 17 13:00:45 2009 CDT #
popeye says:
Apprentice,
Decent article on Euro quantitative easing.
http://eurowatch.blogspot.com/2009/03/bring-on-quantitative-easing-and-bring.html
popeye Tue Mar 17 13:00:58 2009 CDT #
ac says:
You Can help Save America by participating in this campaign locally. Just have these bumper stickers printed up with the slogan; "Save to Save America", and distribute them free of charge if you have the means. Thank You.
Sorry, but you're not allowed to save - that takes too much power away from the government/politicians and puts it back in the hands of the people.
Remember, the purpose of the financial system is to get Obama re-elected, not to give you control over your future.
ac Tue Mar 17 13:02:23 2009 CDT #
Michael says:
Smart ass.
Parent Post
Michael Tue Mar 17 13:18:31 2009 CDT #
cd says:
bfatz, so far inflation seems contained to food...
how do you see oil ticking up that high..of course we know it can be driven there by hedgies, GS etc...I still dont see demand...heck you can fly r/t to central america for under $400.00 and thats after capacity reduction by all airlines....
their is so much unwinding left, it feels like we are on a party boat with one guy hooked up to a albacore circling the boat, our lines are still out and the rats mess has entagled everyone..ben b the deckhand is trying to untangle it but that damn albacore is fast, strong and doesn't want to be on the deck....
cd Tue Mar 17 13:08:34 2009 CDT #
Dean Valentine says:
Knife catchers?
Dean Valentine Tue Mar 17 13:11:49 2009 CDT #
ac says:
how do you see oil ticking up that high..of course we know it can be driven there by hedgies, GS etc...I still dont see demand...heck you can fly r/t to central america for under $400.00 and thats after capacity reduction by all airlines...
However it turns out, hopefully we're past the point of truly massive speculation in oil so we can now get to see whether the arguments of a fundamental supply/demand imbalance is valid - i.e. are there just too many people lined up in front of too few holes.
ac Tue Mar 17 13:13:48 2009 CDT #
happa says:
"Meanwhile, sales in "more expensive established areas" have slowed to a trickle. This build up in supply will eventually lead to more price declines in the expensive areas ... "
Question: How long until the prices drop significantly on the Westside? Any guidance from the previous housing downturn in SoCal?
happa Tue Mar 17 13:13:58 2009 CDT #
What? says:
Bloomberg.com
Deutsche Bank Names Jain, Cohrs to Management Board (Update1)
By Jann Bettinga and Aaron Kirchfeld
March 17 (Bloomberg) -- Deutsche Bank AG appointed four executives to its management board, including investment banking co-heads Anshu Jain and Michael Cohrs, broadening the field of potential successors to Chief Executive Officer Josef Ackermann.
The Frankfurt-based bank’s supervisory board also voted to promote Rainer Neske, the head of private and business clients, and regional management chief Juergen Fitschen to the management board, it said in a faxed statement today. The appointments take effect on April 1. (cont.)
Germany’s largest bank will probably appoint a successor for Ackermann, 61, from the enlarged board, two people with knowledge of the matter said on March 13. The Swiss native, who is scheduled to step down at the annual general meeting in May 2010, has helped the bank sidestep the worst of the U.S. subprime mortgage market crash and avoid taking government aid.
“These appointments reflect the strength and depth of Deutsche Bank’s leadership pool,” Clemens Boersig, the bank’s supervisory board chairman, said in the statement. “They reinforce our senior management team with business and regional expertise. Together with the current board members, they position us very well for the future.”
The Frankfurt-based bank is giving greater authority to Jain, 46, and Cohrs, 52, even after losses at the investment bank led to a record fourth-quarter deficit. The investment banking unit posted trading losses after a stock-market rout and the worst performance of investment-grade bonds in at least 35 years......
What? Tue Mar 17 13:21:57 2009 CDT #
CRbot says:
The Latest from Jesse:
Congressman Proposes 60% Income Tax Surcharge on AIG Bonuses
CRbot Tue Mar 17 13:25:53 2009 CDT #
Interesting Times says:
http://www.forbes.com/2009/03/17/madoff-irs-taxes-personal-finance-madoff.html
Why not tax breaks for everyone who owned C, LEH, BS, BAC, GM, F, MER, MS, GS, Indymac, Countrywide ?
Interesting Times Tue Mar 17 13:25:59 2009 CDT #
ryanonthebeach says:
It's looking good. a few more years like this and I might even consider buying one. I would however expect the news to start moderating in the coming months.
ryanonthebeach Tue Mar 17 13:27:43 2009 CDT #
tracy707 says:
guys, I do see signs of life coming back here in Tracy-stockton area. I am reading your comments on CR for a while and you guys have been correct so for but now I am wondering if you will be able to be correct on the next move.
tracy707 Tue Mar 17 13:29:57 2009 CDT #
Some Investor Guy says:
I had no idea the influence of CR on Senate staffers.
Yesterday, I described how to get most or all of the money back from the AIG bonuses. Then, a news item about the Senate wanting to do this.
Earlier today, I posted here about the maximum historic income tax rates being the amount likely to stand up on court, with a link to the IRS history. Now this:
"WASHINGTON -(Dow Jones)- Senate Democrats Tuesday were preparing legislation that would levy up to a 91% excise tax on the bonuses paid to executives at American International Group Inc. (AIG) that have stirred outrage." http://money.cnn.com/news/newsfeeds/articles/djf500/200903171329DOWJONESDJONLINE000543_FORTUNE5.htm
You're welcome, Senate staffer John/Jane Doe. If you're not prohibited from posting here under an anonymous ID, feel free to ask for help on other issues (I hear that employees in some parts of the Fed Govt read Calculated Risk regularly, but can't post, even anonymously).
It's a pretty active and astute group here, and as far as I can tell there are no lobbyists posting. You might ask questions like "Would there be a real or perceived moral hazard if we did xxxx?" or "Is anyone familiar with an example where the following thing occurred...?"
Best wishes, and good luck with the excise tax.
Some_investor_guy at yaaahoooo
Some Investor Guy Tue Mar 17 13:34:46 2009 CDT #
joe shmoe says:
zombie companies like AIG give retention bonuses to the departed. it is all about the undead.
The NYT reports:
Seventy-three employees were paid more than $1 million in the newly minted bonuses at the insurance giant, American International Group, according to the New York attorney general Andrew M. Cuomo.
The attorney general provided some new details on Tuesday about some of the $160 billion in bonuses that the insurance giant paid out last week in a letter sent to Representative Barney Frank, the chairman of the House Committee on Financial Services.
Mr. Cuomo did not name the recipients of bonuses, but said one employee received more than $6.4 million. The top seven received more than $4 million each, and the top 10 received a combined $42 million. Eleven of those who received “retention” bonuses of $1 million or more are no longer working at A.I.G., including one who received $4.6 million, he said.
joe shmoe Tue Mar 17 13:36:13 2009 CDT #
joe shmoe says:
back to houses:
in the 90's bust, the peak in westside LA was 1989, the bottom was 1996, and big declines came in 1992 (probably accelerated by the riots). That bust was a combo of 1) a real estate bubble ending and 2) a moderate ordinary recession that hit SoCal harder because of post-cold war defense plant closings and 3) the accelerant of the 1992 riots and then 4) the coup de grace of the 1994 Northridge earthquake.
This time is different in some ways that will probably shape the timing: likely depression or at least severe recession, mega real estate boom, exploding booby trap of the Option ARMs over the next couple of years, etc.
The peak was 2007. And it looks like the pricey westside will start to sink faster this summer into next year, which would be 3 years after the peak . . .
which is roughly the same as last time.
Maybe it is not so different this time?
joe shmoe Tue Mar 17 13:43:06 2009 CDT #
dow30 summer weight says:
For AIG to complete the perfect screwing of the taxpayer they must now pay a bonus to a person who not only doesn't work for the company anymore, but one who NEVER worked for them or any affiliated company.
I herby volunteer to accept payment.
dow30 summer weight Tue Mar 17 13:44:12 2009 CDT #
MS says:
well there was a nice little H&S on the dow......
Ciao
MS
MS Tue Mar 17 13:45:34 2009 CDT #
Comrade Rally Monkey says:
guys, I do see signs of life coming back here in Tracy-stockton area. I am reading your comments on CR for a while and you guys have been correct so for but now I am wondering if you will be able to be correct on the next move.
do I need to jump up and down like a crazed monkey yelling buy something, buy anything every day...
hmmmmm...oy yeah!
Booooyahahahahahaha
Comrade Rally Monkey Tue Mar 17 13:46:08 2009 CDT #
MLM says:
Interesting post at zerohedge about how things are going inside AIG:
http://zerohedge.blogspot.com/2009/03/aig-employees-not-too-happy-with.html
MLM Tue Mar 17 13:48:24 2009 CDT #
ATM card and $19 in the bank says:
Joe Shmoe,
What a great line:
"Eleven of those who received “retention” bonuses of $1 million or more are no longer working at A.I.G."
I think I will let my Senators know that I plan to "retain" them at the next election.
ATM card and $19 in the bank Tue Mar 17 13:49:52 2009 CDT #
ac says:
From Marketwatch:
Fiscal Responsibility Fluid gains 3.8% to end at $49.16, the highest since Dec. 1
ac Tue Mar 17 13:50:09 2009 CDT #
Apprentice says:
I'm still chewing over Bernanke's example of why AIG had to be saved. He compared it to the guy in the neighboring house smoking in bed and burning his house down. Hazardous behaviour can't be condoned, but you still have to call the fire department just to save your own house from being engulfed.
Ok, we called the fire department. They came too late and were too inept. Our house is on fire nevertheless and still burning.
The smoker next door got out. He now collects a monthly "fire starter" Bonus, which I and my neighbours have to pay.
Solution: The regulators should not have allowed the developers to build the houses so close together. (greed)
The regulators should never have let anyone get "too big to fail".
Apprentice Tue Mar 17 13:51:52 2009 CDT #
Comrade Bear (tj and the bear) says:
This build up in supply will eventually lead to more price declines in the expensive areas ...
Bring it on, baby, bring it on!!! Getting impatient here in SoCal.
Comrade Bear (tj and the bear) Tue Mar 17 13:52:48 2009 CDT #
Bob Dobbs says:
"The peak was 2007. And it looks like the pricey westside will start to sink faster this summer into next year, which would be 3 years after the peak . . .
which is roughly the same as last time.
Maybe it is not so different this time?"
Same pattern in the "it's different here" areas around the SF Bay Area. In Santa Cruz, prices have not sunk nearly as much yet as in subprime areas -- but very little is moving unless it's priced low (rarely) or is an ultra-high-end vanity buy.
Saw a nice-ish 45-year-old 3/2 rancher in a decent neighborhood go on sale for $640K this week. Nothing special about it, but they would have tried $750K or more last year. Reality is sinking in, but the ultimate reality is probably still a couple of hundred K south of where it is now -- at least.
I think it's not different here -- just slower here.
Bob Dobbs Tue Mar 17 13:54:02 2009 CDT #
Michael says:
"Save to Save America" Campaign. Please do your part.
Michael Tue Mar 17 14:02:05 2009 CDT #
ATM card and $19 in the bank says:
"I'm still chewing over Bernanke's example of why AIG had to be saved."
Apprentice,
I would set up the smoking analogy a little differently:
Goldie Saxon paid Al G. for a bunch of expensive weed. Al G. gave Goldie oregano instead. Goldie complained to the police, who used taxpayer money to buy some weed on the street so Goldie could get high after all.
ATM card and $19 in the bank Tue Mar 17 14:04:48 2009 CDT #
Rob Dawg says:
Note: I ignore the median price data because it is skewed by the mix of homes sold. A repeat sales index like Case-Shiller is a better indicator of price changes.
- CR
CR, with all due respect I strongly disagree. The median price, while not perfect, is exactly that; a price. The C-S index does a better job of tracking value but not price. Buyers don't care what a house is worth, only what it costs. Conversely owners don't care what it originally costs, only its current utility. While my manse has lost perhaps $600k from peak there was never a thought to selling as the utility of us staying is far greater than any other strategy.
Additionally as mentioned so many times I suggest that C-S biases higher because it does not do a good job of tracking home improvements.
For price changes use the median with the usual codicils. For value tracking over time with its own cautions use C-S.
Rob Dawg Tue Mar 17 14:08:26 2009 CDT #
Kung Fu Panda says:
Setser says "many European banks were growing their dollar balance sheets so quickly that many started to rely heavily on US money market funds for financing. And if an institution is borrowing from US money market funds to buy securitized US mortgage credit, in a lot of ways it is a US bank, or at least a shadow US bank. Consequently I think it is possible to think of AIG as the insurer-of-last resort to the United States’ own shadow financial system. That shadow financial system just operated offshore."
If these flows of capital had been exposed earlier, the shadow financial system would have come apart earlier. US investors in money market funds would have pulled their cash out.
Kung Fu Panda Tue Mar 17 14:09:53 2009 CDT #
REBear says:
AIG's Counterparties Should Pay Us Back for Bonuses
http://www.minyanville.com/articles/index/a/21677
REBear Tue Mar 17 14:11:17 2009 CDT #
Comrade Elmer Fudd says:
kermit's high jumpin' today
Comrade Elmer Fudd Tue Mar 17 14:12:19 2009 CDT #
Kung Fu Panda says:
Setser says:
"many European banks were growing their dollar balance sheets so quickly that many started to rely heavily on US money market funds for financing. And if an institution is borrowing from US money market funds to buy securitized US mortgage credit, in a lot of ways it is a US bank, or at least a shadow US bank. Consequently I think it is possible to think of AIG as the insurer-of-last resort to the United States’ own shadow financial system. That shadow financial system just operated offshore."
If these flows of capital had been exposed earlier, the shadow financial system would have come apart earlier. US investors in money market funds would have pulled their cash out.
Kung Fu Panda Tue Mar 17 14:13:58 2009 CDT #
Dead_Monkey_Bounce says:
Hm, more like Goldie and hundreds of others were betting that the Cardinals would lose in the Superbowl. They were putting down monthly wagers. The bookie, AIG, didn't expect the Cardinals to even make it to the Superbowl, so they took the money and blew it on ale and whores. When the Cardinals lost in the Superbowl, AIG had no money to pay out. So the government stepped in and bailed out the bookie.
Dead_Monkey_Bounce Tue Mar 17 14:14:44 2009 CDT #
Dead_Monkey_Bounce says:
Oh, and after the bailout, the bookie went out and blew the cash that they hadn't used to settle the bets on more ale and whores.
Dead_Monkey_Bounce Tue Mar 17 14:17:16 2009 CDT #
cd says:
Oil rose as high as $49.82, but also fell nearly 2% earlier to as low as $46.53. The expiration of options on the front-month April futures contract added extra volatility to Tuesday's trading, analysts said.
What is the play here on oil? Is this a good short opportunity, I could swear it went down right after expiration last time...Where's energycon? anybody..Or is the dollar getting ready to for a steep drop?
cd Tue Mar 17 14:17:36 2009 CDT #
bfatz says:
Anyone else feel AIG is days away from imploding?
bfatz Tue Mar 17 14:17:50 2009 CDT #
bearly says:
It doesn't smell as bad at high tide. And, it lifts even the leaky listing boats.
bearly Tue Mar 17 14:24:12 2009 CDT #
Punditry says:
"I have a horrible, horrible, horrible feeling that this is going to end badly."
geez...who are the doomer's again?
Punditry Tue Mar 17 14:24:49 2009 CDT #
Comrade Elmer Fudd says:
Anyone else feel AIG is days away from imploding?
if so we'll see if Buffet's comment about derivatives being weapons of mass destruction was accurate
Comrade Elmer Fudd Tue Mar 17 14:25:00 2009 CDT #
debtinator says:
Why did they bail AIG out in the first place? It was the job of a BK judge to dispose of it.
debtinator Tue Mar 17 14:27:07 2009 CDT #
Comrade Rally Monkey says:
leaving likely a janitor and a chimp to supervise
don't let the chimps run it...there face-meat eaters....they'll literally rip our faces off.
Comrade Rally Monkey Tue Mar 17 14:27:42 2009 CDT #
ATM card and $19 in the bank says:
"So the government stepped in and bailed out the bookie."
But first they were shocked! shocked! to find that gambling is going on...
ATM card and $19 in the bank Tue Mar 17 14:27:44 2009 CDT #
MaryAnn says:
Were these AIG employee's located outside of US, say in UK. Scamers taught well, only 5000 who knew this scam well enought to unwind it, while one Judge in BK could have done it in 24 hours.
MaryAnn Tue Mar 17 14:27:46 2009 CDT #
MS says:
I just love how the market got taken up just after the right shoulder was taken out on the Dow.....
A "CONfidence" inspiring market this 'aint.
Ciao
MS
MS Tue Mar 17 14:27:50 2009 CDT #
cd says:
that 770-5 area is a stickler for sp500..didn't bust thruu again...same thing as yesterday...
cd Tue Mar 17 14:28:10 2009 CDT #
Gavshire Hathaway says:
Hey Comrade Rally Monkey,
Hard to juice this market, no? Clearly the big boys want to rally, but the shorts are making it very very costly.
Gavshire Hathaway Tue Mar 17 14:28:33 2009 CDT #
MS says:
Gav-
What exactly are you expecting after the last two weeks at this point? It's obviously very easy to juice it.....
Ciao
MS
Parent Post
MS Tue Mar 17 14:31:35 2009 CDT #
Comrade Elmer Fudd says:
by the way, the retention bonus for former employees at AIG--beyond hubris
Comrade Elmer Fudd Tue Mar 17 14:30:07 2009 CDT #
mark says:
Is this still considered a sucker's rally?
mark Tue Mar 17 14:30:31 2009 CDT #
ac says:
Solution: The regulators should not have allowed the developers to build the houses so close together. (greed)
The regulators should never have let anyone get "too big to fail".
Alternatively, the regulators could have refrained from stepping in and actively aborting recessions and market corrections - this is the thing that seems to have historically worked the best in correcting problems in the economy.
That's why they're called "corrections".
It is interesting that we have institutions in this country dedicated to preventing the economy from "correcting" it's own flaws and excesses.
ac Tue Mar 17 14:32:03 2009 CDT #
OPTICS says:
CD Is it my imagination or is the usdx trying to grow ears also?
OPTICS Tue Mar 17 14:32:10 2009 CDT #
Markar says:
OH the outrage over AIG bonuses by our feckless elected officials! It' a red herring to divert attention from the $100bil paid out the back door to foreign banks and GS. Money that will NEVER be repaid to the treasury. But, if it's the spark that lights the tinderbox, so be it.
Markar Tue Mar 17 14:32:29 2009 CDT #
Gavshire Hathaway says:
CRM, what's your best sense of when the chimps are coming back? Think we can hold them off for a while?
Gavshire Hathaway Tue Mar 17 14:33:03 2009 CDT #
Dead_Monkey_Bounce says:
Optics: It's your imagination, everyone knows that fields of corn have no ears.
Dead_Monkey_Bounce Tue Mar 17 14:33:39 2009 CDT #
bearly says:
Gotta goose this market to prevent quarter mass end liquidations.
bearly Tue Mar 17 14:33:58 2009 CDT #
ac says:
Oil rose as high as $49.82, but also fell nearly 2% earlier to as low as $46.53. The expiration of options on the front-month April futures contract added extra volatility to Tuesday's trading, analysts said.
What is the play here on oil? Is this a good short opportunity, I could swear it went down right after expiration last time...Where's energycon? anybody..Or is the dollar getting ready to for a steep drop?
A couple of times I've made some money briefly shorting gold or oil futures/ETFs on "suspicious" spikes. This looks similar, especially being around op ex, but I'm not sure what the right play is. Temporary spikes sometimes turn into longer-term momentum moves.
I've got no positions in these things - maybe somebody has a better insight.
ac Tue Mar 17 14:35:52 2009 CDT #
Gavshire Hathaway says:
MS, I'm just being patient and biding my time. Gonna be some great short opportunities coming up shortly. But I always jump into the pool too early. I think I'll wait until Opex before I place any big bets. But it is hard to refrain from buying more puts here...
Gavshire Hathaway Tue Mar 17 14:36:34 2009 CDT #
Comrade Byzantine_Ruins says:
bfatz says:
Today, 3:17:50 PM
Anyone else feel AIG is days away from imploding?
I feel that way about the Treasuries market. The days when mere banks and capital structures were allowed to fail are long gone. It's called a zombie for a reason.
Comrade Byzantine_Ruins Tue Mar 17 14:36:50 2009 CDT #
Uncle Billy, Mental Widget says:
OT: Thought someone might appreciate this email I just got from Drexel U:
<blockquote>"You are good at what you do, but in a city like Philadelphia, competition is fierce. Earn your advanced degree with Drexel University Online, and stand out among the competitors!
Established in 1891, Drexel University is ranked among “America’s BEST colleges – 2009” by U.S.News & World Report. Drexel is nationally and internationally renowned for its academic excellence.
With Drexel University Online, you can earn a prestigious degree, while attending classes on your schedule. You’ll find state-of-the-art, interactive, online classes—designed for your professional lifestyle. Best of all, Drexel’s on-campus and online degrees are exactly the same."</blockquote>
Uncle Billy, Mental Widget Tue Mar 17 14:37:26 2009 CDT #
ac says:
that 770-5 area is a stickler for sp500..didn't bust thruu again...same thing as yesterday...
And strong support around 750...
ac Tue Mar 17 14:38:02 2009 CDT #
Comrade Elmer Fudd says:
timmay in an afternoon dalliance with tarpy . . .
tarpy: is that your buy button or are you happy to see me?
Comrade Elmer Fudd Tue Mar 17 14:38:48 2009 CDT #
MS says:
look at some of the psychology at play here....you've got op. ex. this week....end of the month and qtr. on Tuesday...The Dow closed right at 7k to close out Feb. so anything above that will be touted as the recovery is underway.
I can't begin to fathom how disappointing the majority of earnings will be for Q1 across most sectors so you've got the system creating some additional "space" to fall into so the key "lows" of earlier this month are not breached. I will eat my computer if the Dow closes below it's February month end print.
Ciao
MS
MS Tue Mar 17 14:38:53 2009 CDT #
Markar says:
Just heard on CNBC the govt is thinking of adding the $200mil in bonuses to the tab AIG owes it.
BWAAAAAHAHAHAHAHA!
Markar Tue Mar 17 14:39:17 2009 CDT #
reptillian says:
Real Outrage: Backdoor bailout of AIG Counterparties
reptillian Tue Mar 17 14:39:33 2009 CDT #
popeye says:
Solution: The regulators should not have allowed the developers to build the houses so close together. (greed)
The regulators should never have let anyone get "too big to fail".
...the regulators should never have allowed the anti-regulatory politicians to have gotten elected.
popeye Tue Mar 17 14:41:52 2009 CDT #
OPTICS says:
DMB: MMMMMMM Do I smell popcorn?
OPTICS Tue Mar 17 14:43:39 2009 CDT #
Black Star Ranch says:
FedGov stuck their toe in the AIG kettle and found out they're up to their eyeballs in the pot - and THEY are dinner.
"Congressman Proposes 60% Income Tax Surcharge on AIG Bonuses" - THIS IS HORZESHIT. Next time it'll be an additional tax surcharge on people who like pizza, or people who chew with their mouth open, or (fill in the blank). Nothing worse then precedents.
Black Star Ranch Tue Mar 17 14:46:24 2009 CDT #
ATM card and $19 in the bank says:
"OT: Thought someone might appreciate this email I just got from Drexel U"
Uncle Billy,
I just took a look. Good variety of programs.
But they don't offer the new degree that all the hotshot, soon-to-be-rich kids are studying today, the MLT -- Masters in Looting the Treasury.
I hear Paulson is writing the textbook...
ATM card and $19 in the bank Tue Mar 17 14:47:04 2009 CDT #
Uncle Billy, Mental Widget says:
ATM: Oh, you didn't go to the right one then. This is Drexel.con
Parent Post
Uncle Billy, Mental Widget Tue Mar 17 15:00:33 2009 CDT #
Comrade Elmer Fudd says:
I will eat my computer if the Dow closes below it's February month end print.
byte by byte
Comrade Elmer Fudd Tue Mar 17 14:47:08 2009 CDT #
MS says:
"byte by byte"
Totally.....although I am not really positioned for the continued "whoosh" upwards......I can't help but see that agenda looming on the horizon.
The system has to show some form of improvement, however manufactured or contrite it may be.
Ciao
MS
Parent Post
MS Tue Mar 17 14:53:09 2009 CDT #
CRbot says:
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http://www.calculatedriskblog.com/2009/03/thornburg-mortgage-may-file-bankruptcy.html ( 0 comments ...You could be FIRST! )
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CRbot Tue Mar 17 14:47:14 2009 CDT #
Anonymous says:
test
Anonymous Tue Mar 17 16:23:55 2009 CDT #
Not Irving Fisher! says:
test
Not Irving Fisher! Tue Mar 17 16:25:27 2009 CDT #
KR says:
There is another reason builders might build right now. They might have some very good sites in a location where the market is not over supplied by a collapsing condo market, and they are targeting the average rent or gov subsidy market sector. There have to be thousands of these units going in now. Financing will be cheap cheap. Its a great time to have cash flow. Some landlords i know made their family fortune in recessionary hard times.
KR Tue Mar 17 17:17:32 2009 CDT #
END