Comments for Equity Extraction Data

Nemo says:

Relax; soon the housing bubble will restart and there will be plenty of equity for everyone.

Nemo Tue Mar 24 20:10:10 2009 CDT #

CRbot says:

This comment thread has been HALO-IZED by CRbot.

http://realize.org/cr/halokit.php?halourl=http://www.haloscan.com/comments/calculatedrisk/7120691531338178929

CRbot Tue Mar 24 20:12:10 2009 CDT #

Yancey Ward says:

I tried to trade my unused bathroom for a new Chevy.

Yancey Ward Tue Mar 24 20:13:33 2009 CDT #

RockyR says:

"I tried to trade my unused bathroom for a new Chevy."

Priceless.

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RockyR Tue Mar 24 21:24:25 2009 CDT #

Mr.Sparkle says:

CR - Thanks so much for providing this - I had found a lot of this historic data on another site and had been manually updating from here with the subsequent points.

I never realized this was an unofficial production.

Mr.Sparkle Tue Mar 24 20:14:24 2009 CDT #

jo6pac says:

WOW free fall. Still a renter.
jo6pac
The race to the bottom continues. :-$

jo6pac Tue Mar 24 20:14:26 2009 CDT #

Threads Must Die (aka bobn) says:

Jas says:

Welocme to the modern democracy--Celebrities get elected. Pluff and no substance is very appealing to dopes.

Next you'll be saying some washed-up old actor could get elected POTUS.

Threads Must Die (aka bobn) Tue Mar 24 20:14:34 2009 CDT #

Jas says:

--
An actor in his prime is not going to be interested in being a POTUS. An actress even less so!

Jas

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Jas Tue Mar 24 20:36:36 2009 CDT #

citiprank says:

@bobn... LMFAO

citiprank Tue Mar 24 20:17:03 2009 CDT #

citiprank says:

I think it's awesome that we have two fascist political parties now...

citiprank Tue Mar 24 20:17:56 2009 CDT #

Blackhalo says:

Side effect of the outrageously expensive campaigns. You can't get elected without your corporate sponsorship or elite connectons. Even Ron P. who was on a funding roll got shut-out of the debates and marginalized by the MSM.

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Blackhalo Tue Mar 24 20:24:21 2009 CDT #

Yancey Ward says:

Don't blame me, I voted for Kodos.

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Yancey Ward Tue Mar 24 20:34:08 2009 CDT #

Tailspin says:

I think it's awesome that we have two fascist political parties now...

No just one in the same. For the Banksters obviously.

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Tailspin Wed Mar 25 00:11:27 2009 CDT #

GYSC says:

repost:
JOKE:
In late breaking ultra secret news the first draft for the all new World Reserve Currency was leaked:
http://economicdisconnect.blogspot.com/2009/03/more-authority-for-fed-and-treasury-to.html

GYSC Tue Mar 24 20:20:42 2009 CDT #

Threads Must Die (aka bobn) says:

citiprank> I think it's awesome that we have two fascist political parties now...

Fascists to the left of me,
fascists to the right,
stuck in the middle with who?

Threads Must Die (aka bobn) Tue Mar 24 20:23:43 2009 CDT #

Jas says:

--
I beg to differ; they make fascists look good (fascists believed in something). There is always something worse and we are #1 in getting there.

Jas

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Jas Tue Mar 24 20:40:00 2009 CDT #

RockyR says:

"I beg to differ; they make fascists look good (fascists believed in something). There is always something worse and we are #1 in getting there. "

Nihilism Jas? Are we all Jeffrey Lebowski now?

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RockyR Tue Mar 24 21:00:10 2009 CDT #

notional billionaire says:

Jas Jain, why do you stay here, feeling as you do? Can it be so bad?

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notional billionaire Tue Mar 24 21:51:18 2009 CDT #

EvilHenryPaulson says:

I'm away from a keyboard, neat data set, wonder how much has to be repaid for a return to historical average % equity

EvilHenryPaulson Tue Mar 24 20:29:54 2009 CDT #

bearly says:

The press asked the lamest questions. There are Kleptocrats at work and the administration is assisting. BHO gets a pass again.

bearly Tue Mar 24 20:32:30 2009 CDT #

Jas says:

--
MEW was the biggest stimulus to the US economy since the WW II. We had a deflationary depression (DD) when the WW II, the big one, ended. Can you spell Demand Destruction (DD!)?

Jas

Jas Tue Mar 24 20:34:48 2009 CDT #

nova says:

Well, so much for BMW car sales and Hermes purses for admin assistants. Werner posted an interesting video link. Basically a US Senator is telling why he turned down the Commerce Sec position. Summary: We are doomed.

more doom also available at http://afterthecrash.com

excerpt from todays work

When I say “Word was” I mean a combination of gossip and FM radio. The FM band now had two stations that had begun operation in coordination with the food distribution announcements. They were broadcasting news, specialized programming, and a lot of bad country music. The news content was 100% feel good. The specialized programming offered such tidbits as “How long to boil water for drinking, the dangers of carbon monoxide poisoning, and my favorite, Squirrel: Is it Edible?”

nova Tue Mar 24 20:38:57 2009 CDT #

citiprank says:

Blackhalo is totally right... you know I sometimes wonder if some of these politicians really do want to help people.. but the system just corrupts them because it's the only way to get elected.

One interesting argument against massive wealth inequality is that it makes democracy hard because those with the concentrated wealth can buy off the politicians so much more easily....

citiprank Tue Mar 24 20:40:12 2009 CDT #

Nemo says:

20th?

Nemo Tue Mar 24 20:43:06 2009 CDT #

norma says:

I like my phantom equity better :)

norma Tue Mar 24 20:43:34 2009 CDT #

vozworth says:

I paid one for Paul yesterday, and I called out nemo.

here's yesterdays whine....

http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=A5S3t5qNcwI

and another one for knee moe:
https://self-evident.org/?p=506

vozworth Tue Mar 24 20:43:35 2009 CDT #

homedad43 says:

interesting comment from last thread. Notional Billionaire wondered if Rob Dawg would be willing to run for office...

Yeah, I could go for that. Think of Dawg having a nice gnaw at Helen Thomas' ankles...and Jas can be our UN Ambassador or emissary to the G20 summit.

Yeah, that works.

homedad43 Tue Mar 24 20:44:10 2009 CDT #

Anonymous says:

OT: Does Roubini see something I don't, or has Obama promised the Treasury if Geithner fails?

http://dealbook.blogs.nytimes.com/2009/03/24/dr-doom-finds-promise-in-obamas-toxic-asset-plan/

“My take is generally positive, with a couple of caveats,” Mr. Roubini told DealBook about the new plan. He said he liked that the government was finally stepping up to clear the toxic assets off the bank’s balance sheet and that private capital would come in to make a market for it.

Anonymous Tue Mar 24 20:46:25 2009 CDT #

Jas says:

--
Roubini likes to be invited to Davos. He can't always be critical of the most powerful. He must propose, or support, some of the solutions by the powerful. DD will disprove, or discredit, Roubini and many more rogue economists.

Jas

Parent Post

Jas Tue Mar 24 20:52:00 2009 CDT #

reptillian says:

MEW was a fat cat, but has gone on a diet.

reptillian Tue Mar 24 20:49:43 2009 CDT #

kbw says:

what is negative MEW ? that couldn't be people paying down helocs, could it ? Seems impossible that we had pay downs of significance when consumers were playing defense. I assume its helocs that were charged off in foreclosure.

kbw Tue Mar 24 20:52:15 2009 CDT #

Barley says:

HK is on a tear!

Was FAZ a good idea??

Oh Boy.

On an other note.

Barley Tue Mar 24 20:56:38 2009 CDT #

Barley says:

EHP - planning another trip to Whistler...I'll be in your neck of the woods.

Barley Tue Mar 24 20:57:48 2009 CDT #

Anonymous says:

Jas, son, you're not from around here, are ya?

Anonymous Tue Mar 24 20:57:50 2009 CDT #

REBear says:

Obama's vision for the country brings tears of joy.

However, individual actions don't seem to add up to the vision.

REBear Tue Mar 24 20:58:02 2009 CDT #

dryfly says:

As I pointed out last thread CR had on MEW or lack there of... I know some companies that noticed MEW going negative... companies that make motorcycles, ATVs, boats & boat motors, snowmobiles... and the resort & travel folks will get nailed this year too - at least the expensive ones.

However what is strange is I have in-laws who live up in N Wisc... they say the resort biz at least up to now has held up pretty well... seems folks can still afford to get away for a few days at a cabin where a couple years ago they went to Cancun or Hawaii.

dryfly Tue Mar 24 20:58:14 2009 CDT #

notional billionaire says:

dryfly, while I sympathize with the motor-makers plight in reference to the jobs at risk, I cannot, in all good conscience, regret the loss of so many combustion engines to the environment, in terms of noise and pollution, as well as habitat harassment. I live in the country and despise nothing more than the snowmobilers, jetskiers, and dirt bikers who think nothing of disturbing the solitude and the wildlife in the pursuit of their own personal kicks. Even if it was done with silent electric motors, I would be against it. Boats, not so much, if they could be made to operate electrically. As long as they aren't the 'extreme' variety. That way of thinking has to go.

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notional billionaire Tue Mar 24 22:25:01 2009 CDT #

dryfly says:

dryfly, while I sympathize with the motor-makers plight in reference to the jobs at risk, I cannot, in all good conscience, regret the loss of so many combustion engines to the environment, in terms of noise and pollution, as well as habitat harassment. I live in the country and despise nothing more than the snowmobilers, jetskiers, and dirt bikers who think nothing of disturbing the solitude and the wildlife in the pursuit of their own personal kicks. Even if it was done with silent electric motors, I would be against it. Boats, not so much, if they could be made to operate electrically. As long as they aren't the 'extreme' variety. That way of thinking has to go.

Yup. It was one thing when there were just a few folks motoring around in the woods and a whole other thing when there are THOUSANDS.

Same applies to hunting... I used to love to hunt as a kid... but now there are too many crazies out there - it is like a war zone on deer season opener in rural Wisconsin & Minnesota... BTW I personally know three people who have been shot - all lived but one at least was a very close call and one almost had his arm shot off - shattered the bone in the fore arm. All three were good safe hunters - it was the other guy. Any activity where my safety is determined by the judgment of the 'other guy' gives me reason for pause.

Parent Post

dryfly Tue Mar 24 22:34:11 2009 CDT #

notional billionaire says:

dryfly, thank you. We are on the same page. I have long appreciated your comments, and look forward to to your continued input. My best to you and your family.

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notional billionaire Tue Mar 24 22:44:30 2009 CDT #

dryfly says:

@ notional billionaire - Today, 10:44:30 PM

Same to you - talk to you all another day - got a long drive tomorrow. Zzzzzzzzz...

Parent Post

dryfly Tue Mar 24 22:48:06 2009 CDT #

poic.v20 says:

"Obama's vision for the country brings tears of joy.

However, individual actions don't seem to add up to the vision."

Your mistaking tears from sulphur with tears of joy.

poic.v20 Tue Mar 24 21:00:27 2009 CDT #

MLM says:

M3 and MEW, gone to statistics heaven. Pretty soon people may start to figure out they don't need a weatherman to know which way the wind blows.

MLM Tue Mar 24 21:01:10 2009 CDT #

Basel Too says:

seems folks can still afford to get away for a few days at a cabin where a couple years ago they went to Cancun or Hawaii.

I have a couple of friends that will downsize until they're broke. They haven't changed their routines at all, just the composition.

Basel Too Tue Mar 24 21:06:13 2009 CDT #

DIPing to China says:

I kept waiting for someone to step up and defend Pres Obama. Interesting that it didn't happen. More than a little sad as well.

"Where have you gone, Joe DiMaggio,
Our nation turns it's lonely eyes to you.
What's that you say, Mrs. Robinson.
Jotting Joe has left and gone away,
Hey hey hey".

DIPing to China Tue Mar 24 21:07:16 2009 CDT #

bearly says:

[Roubini likes to be invited to Davos]

Jas, maybe, if you behave, Roubini will let you ride to Davos in his suitcase in the aircraft cargo bay next year.

bearly Tue Mar 24 21:12:55 2009 CDT #

Michael says:

Even if you didn't agree with Senator Helms in certain areas or at all for that matter, and even though this is an old speech, it is completely relevant to
what's happening right now and he is right on da $ ..

Excerpts from Sen Jesse Helms' speech before the US Senate on Dec 15, 1987 warning against the New World Order. Helms became Chairman of the Senate Foreign Relations Committee in 1994. _____ "This campaign against the American people -against traditional American culture and values - is systematic psychological warfare. It is orchestrated by a vast array of interests comprising not only the Eastern establishment but also the radical left. Among this group we find the Department of State, the Department of Commerce, the money center banks and multinational coporations, the media, the educational establishment, the entertainment industry, and the large tax-exempt foundations.

Michael Tue Mar 24 21:19:13 2009 CDT #

Michael says:

Helms continued;

Mr. President, a careful examination of what is happening behind the scenes reveals that all of these interests are working in concert with the masters of the Kremlin in order to create what some refer to as a New World Order. Private organizations such as the Council on Foreign Relations, the Royal Institute of International Affairs, the Trilateral Commission, the Dartmouth Conference, the Aspen Institute for Humanistic Studies, the Atlantic Institute, and the Bilderberger Group serve to disseminate and to coordinate the plans for this so-called New World Order in powerful business, financial, academic, and official circles. . . . The psychological campaign that I am describing, as I have said, is the work of groups within the Eastern establishment, that amorphous amalgam of wealth and social connections whose power resides in its control over our financial system and over a large portion of our industrial sector. The principal instrument of this control over the American economy and money is the Federal Reserve System. The policies of the Industrial sectors, primarily the multinational corporations, are influenced by the money center banks through debt financing and through the large blocks of stock controlled by the trust departments of the money center banks. Anyone familiar with American history, and particularly American economic history, cannot fail to notice the control over the Department of State and the Central Intelligence Agency which Wall Street seems to exercise....

Parent Post

Michael Tue Mar 24 21:20:41 2009 CDT #

Michael says:

Helms continued;

The influence of establishment insiders over our foreign policy has become a fact of life in our time. This pervasive influence runs contrary to the real long-term national security of our Nation. It is an influence which, if unchecked, could ultimately subvert our constitutional order. The viewpoint of the establishment today is called globalism. Not so long ago, this viewpoint was called the "one-world" view by its critics. The phrase is no longer fashionable among sophisticates; yet, the phrase "one-world" is still apt because nothing has changed in the minds and actions of those promoting policies consistent with its fundamental tenets. Mr. President, in the globalist point of view, nation-states and national boundaries do not count for anything. Political philosophies and political principles seem to become simply relative. Indeed, even constitutions are irrelevant to the exercise of power. Liberty and tyranny are viewed as neither necessarily good nor evil, and certainly not a component of policy. In this point of view, the activities of international financial and industrial forces should be oriented to bringing this one-world design - with a convergence of the Soviet and American systems as its centerpiece - into being. . . . All that matters to this club is the maximization of profits resulting from the practice of what can be described as finance capitalism, a system which rests upon the twin pillars of debt and monopoly. This isn't real capitalism. It is the road to economic concentration and to political slavery.."

Parent Post

Michael Tue Mar 24 21:21:29 2009 CDT #

Michael says:

Oh, and if you need further confirmation about "this one-world design - with a convergence of the Soviet and American systems as its centerpiece, just google NORMAN DODD or watch

this:
http://video.google.com/videoplay?docid=8605813744843314322&ei=PzKnSZrmJoGyqAKxkoj9Dw&q=norman+dodd&hl=en

Parent Post

Michael Tue Mar 24 21:23:39 2009 CDT #

Michael says:

there's this too:
"George Bush has been surrounding himself with people who believe in one-world government. They believe that the Soviet system and the American system are converging." David Funderburk, former US Ambassador to Romania (1991)
almost forgot about this:"But it became clear as time went on that in Mr. Bush's mind the New World Order was founded on a convergence of goals and interests between the US and the Soviet Union, so strong and permanent that they would work as a team through the U.N. Security Council."M. Rosenthal, The New York Times (1991)

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Michael Tue Mar 24 21:25:33 2009 CDT #

Michael says:

The reason I publish this type of stuff to you is because you have a high enough IQ to understand it.

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Michael Tue Mar 24 21:27:01 2009 CDT #

Broward Horne says:

"An actor in his prime is not going to be interested in being a POTUS"

http://www.imdb.com/name/nm0171041/

He's black, cuter than Obama and definitely past his prime.

Broward Horne Tue Mar 24 21:20:13 2009 CDT #

NorkaWest says:

POS j-kit ate my comment to Nemo

NorkaWest Tue Mar 24 21:23:02 2009 CDT #

Outsider says:

I have been seeing a lot of headlines of municipal layoffs - cities, towns, states. It seems a month or so back there was a rash of corporate layoffs. Now it seems to be snowballing thru state jobs.

Outsider Tue Mar 24 21:24:30 2009 CDT #

Tao Jonesing says:

CR,

Thanks for the MEW update and the raw data!

Tao Jonesing Tue Mar 24 21:25:55 2009 CDT #

Threads Must Die (aka bobn) says:

Word has it Blago is getting his own radio show. The mind boggles. More poetry readings?

Threads Must Die (aka bobn) Tue Mar 24 21:28:02 2009 CDT #

Anonymous says:

Please could someone explain what does -ve MEW mean ?

Are people paying back their mortgages ? Which sounds like a good thing ?

Anonymous Tue Mar 24 21:29:55 2009 CDT #

NorkaWest says:

Hey!

I found our ponies.

They are in London.

http://www.nypost.com/photos/galleries/gossip/celebp/20090324/photo06.htm

NorkaWest Tue Mar 24 21:33:10 2009 CDT #

dryfly says:

I kept waiting for someone to step up and defend Pres Obama. Interesting that it didn't happen. More than a little sad as well.

This is a tough crowd.

We all know BO was dealt some tough cards - but he will have to take the heat regardless. It goes with the job.

Plus he speaks pretty well for himself. Doesn't need any of us to speak up for him.

dryfly Tue Mar 24 21:34:06 2009 CDT #

Outsider says:

Are cash out refi's still available? Maybe negative MEWs aren't by choice.

Outsider Tue Mar 24 21:34:38 2009 CDT #

dryfly says:

I have been seeing a lot of headlines of municipal layoffs - cities, towns, states. It seems a month or so back there was a rash of corporate layoffs. Now it seems to be snowballing thru state jobs.

Yup. See & hear the same thing.

dryfly Tue Mar 24 21:36:07 2009 CDT #

scone says:

dryfly says:

This is a tough crowd.
.
And a few screwballs, too. :-P

scone Tue Mar 24 21:36:29 2009 CDT #

TulipsAllOverAgain says:

This is ultimately good news. "Consumers" are slowly repairing their balance sheets by actually paying off debt. With improved balance sheets, the spending will come later. For now, this will reverse the over-consumption that got us into this mess in the first place.

TulipsAllOverAgain Tue Mar 24 21:36:55 2009 CDT #

dryfly says:

Are cash out refi's still available? Maybe negative MEWs aren't by choice.

I asked a guy about that - he has done a lot of refis to his home over the years - he said for most folks cash outs are off the table... you would need a lot of equity remaining even AFTER the cash out meaning starting with a low LTV... plus demonstrate a stable income. In short the kind of person who already has a lot of cash and probably doesn't need or want the cash out any. We are back to traditional banking where they only want to lend to those who don't need the money.

dryfly Tue Mar 24 21:41:53 2009 CDT #

Danish says:

Please could someone explain what does -ve MEW mean ?

like to an 8 year old ?

Danish Tue Mar 24 21:42:02 2009 CDT #

Danish says:

Also from the charts...it has max of $200 billion

not bigger than PPIP ?

Danish Tue Mar 24 21:43:53 2009 CDT #

Threads Must Die (aka bobn) says:

"Consumers" are slowly repairing their balance sheets by actually paying off debt. With improved balance sheets, the spending will come later.

Yep. Once my FICO clears 300, I'm gonna cut loose!

- Duh Consumer

Threads Must Die (aka bobn) Tue Mar 24 21:44:22 2009 CDT #

Outsider says:

"We are back to traditional banking where they only want to lend to those who don't need the money."

That's more sane but not nearly as much fun.

Outsider Tue Mar 24 21:44:40 2009 CDT #

dryfly says:

This is ultimately good news. "Consumers" are slowly repairing their balance sheets by actually paying off debt. With improved balance sheets, the spending will come later. For now, this will reverse the over-consumption that got us into this mess in the first place.

Assuming job loss isn't too severe. As long as incomes hold up then the balance sheet will repair... if not the drop in the top line [income] will match the drop in debt paid off & 'equity' won't increase... if top line drops faster than debt... equity could even decline & balance sheets get worse off. Debt isn't the only variable in play.

dryfly Tue Mar 24 21:46:11 2009 CDT #

Outsider says:

"And a few screwballs, too. "

Speaking of which, where's Misean? I miss his snark.

Outsider Tue Mar 24 21:46:44 2009 CDT #

notional billionaire says:

all he was was snark. It gets old

Parent Post

notional billionaire Tue Mar 24 22:50:30 2009 CDT #

NorkaWest says:

TulipsAllOverAgain says:
Today, 19:36:55
“This is ultimately good news. "Consumers" are slowly repairing their balance sheets by actually paying off debt. With improved balance sheets, the spending will come later. For now, this will reverse the over-consumption that got us into this mess in the first place.

This is true. It will take time to repair the balance sheets of individual citizens, but if the US Treasury continues its spending spree, all the assets of the then solvent citizenry will have to go to the government to repair its balance sheet.

NorkaWest Tue Mar 24 21:46:50 2009 CDT #

Comrade De Chaos says:

i found a nice chart:
http://vixandmore.blogspot.com/search/label/cash%20on%20the%20sidelines

cash holdings ...
O:-)

Comrade De Chaos Tue Mar 24 21:47:09 2009 CDT #

citiprank says:

Michael,

Do you actually believe that nonsense you post? There is no "left-wing conspiracy".. however there has been plenty of damage by by ultra ring wing facists over the last few decades... and there are plenty of fascist democrats for the record.

The only socialism is for wall street and TPTB.. which is.. of course.. facism

citiprank Tue Mar 24 21:48:13 2009 CDT #

Michael says:

It takes a wide open mind to see.

Parent Post

Michael Tue Mar 24 21:58:15 2009 CDT #

Michael says:

Not left or right but left and right. Very few of us have pieced together this whole puzzle.

Parent Post

Michael Tue Mar 24 22:01:08 2009 CDT #

notional billionaire says:

-and of course, you are one of the very few, which puts you head and shoulders above the rest of us. Very clever. How does it feel to know it all?

Parent Post

notional billionaire Tue Mar 24 22:55:28 2009 CDT #

Comrade De Chaos says:

and another one

http://2.bp.blogspot.com/_FM71j6-VkNE/Scka7JcKKeI/AAAAAAAABkA/pS34gaIK1jY/s1600-h/toxic+assets.jpg

markdowns of toxic assets :( xaxa, xaxa (unstopable sarcastc/nervous lauth ....

Comrade De Chaos Tue Mar 24 21:48:37 2009 CDT #

Outsider says:

"Assuming job loss isn't too severe."

You mean "wishing" job loss weren't so severe. I just heard another person telling about his job loss today - CT, outside of NYC. Rush hour used to be a nightmare between CT and NYC, and anecdotally I hear it's not that big of a problem anymore.

Outsider Tue Mar 24 21:51:54 2009 CDT #

Anonymous says:

former regular here -

this site has jumped the shark...all it has become is negativity, the negativity was in 2003-2007 when prices were out of control, now its a bunch of gold bugs and jas depressionists...good night losers, you guys will miss the train are you are too busy crying in your beer about how doomed this country is...I made a ton of money being short, now I am making money on opportunities, I don't see them here, all I see here is american dope this and BO sucks and we are doomed, etc.. Good luck doomers!

Anonymous Tue Mar 24 21:52:32 2009 CDT #

Michael says:

There will be no more train a coming. A new paradigm maybe.

Parent Post

Michael Tue Mar 24 22:03:20 2009 CDT #

Tao Jonesing says:

"former regular,"

I'm not really sure what you are talking about.

In this market, anybody who has enough capital will make money. I made it shorting the market in January and going long more recently. I'm out until April 1, though.

The real point, though, is that the stock market is NOT the economy. The stock market is a casino, and most of the people who play in it are sheep waiting to be fleeced.

At this point, the stock market-- because it is so driven by the speculators-- is wholly decoupled from the real economy. Most of the folks commenting are commenting on the real economy, not the casino. The real economy is really hurting. Geithner's plan ain't gonna fix the real economy (as indicated by the wildly positive reaction in the casino).

Parent Post

Tao Jonesing Tue Mar 24 23:07:46 2009 CDT #

Caitlin in Ross says:

Spot on... unfortunately.

And vis a vis Roubini, he focuses more on the casino, rather than the 'real' (depressing) economy. Good info & analysis but not the big picture like Paul K.

Since I'm not gonna be playing in that big casino, I'd be curious to know what other folks are seeing for the economy in the next two years -- high unemployment plus deflation? or high unemployment plus (out of control?) inflation?

I'm assuming that we have the first for at least another ten months or so, and then move pretty quickly into the second. What do others think? And do you all think that there is a high risk of out-of-control inflation?

Parent Post

Caitlin in Ross Wed Mar 25 00:54:18 2009 CDT #

Anonymous says:

Jas - please leave this country if you hate it so much! Go back to India and see how great things are there!

Anonymous Tue Mar 24 21:53:48 2009 CDT #

Anonymous says:

The devalued Prime Minister of a devalued Government
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=94lW6Y4tBXs&eurl=http%3A%2F%2Fbenbittrolff%2Eblogspot%2Ecom%2F&feature=player_embedded

The future of this little banana republic here in the US.

Anonymous Tue Mar 24 21:56:58 2009 CDT #

Michael says:

"The devalued Prime Minister of a devalued Government"

"The devalued President of a devalued Government" speech is next.

Parent Post

Michael Tue Mar 24 22:09:22 2009 CDT #

Michael says:

BO sounds like a Brezhnev era Apparatchik of the party line as well. You know and we know that what you say is nonsense.

Parent Post

Michael Tue Mar 24 22:17:53 2009 CDT #

Michael says:

BO sounds like a Brezhnev era Apparatchik of the party line as well. You know and we know that what you say is nascence.

Parent Post

Michael Tue Mar 24 22:16:40 2009 CDT #

Tom Stone says:

You will know things are Bad when the ex realtor babes advertising on craigslist start cutting their prices...

Tom Stone Tue Mar 24 21:57:26 2009 CDT #

hong konger says:

Chaos-

Holy crap! Average carrying value running from 90-98%???

Crimminy! Thanks for link.

Back to shorting bank stocks... The delusion and obfuscation is, I dunno, stunning.

hong konger Tue Mar 24 21:58:23 2009 CDT #

dryfly says:

Please could someone explain what does -ve MEW mean ?

like to an 8 year old ?

Mortgage Equity Withdrawal. Basically turning equity in your house into cash.

Say I buy a house in 1990... pay $100K w/ a 30 year mortgage... make payments. Say in 2005 I still owe $60K [didn't calculate just WAG for example purposes]. Then I talk to a mortgage banker/broker... he suggests I refinance... we get an appraisal and discover the home is now 'worth' $200K... So I take out a $100K "cash out refi mortgage" - pay off the $60K I owed earlier and keep the remaining $40K in cash... the $40K is MEW.

There are other ways - like selling the house outright and keeping the cash less remaining mortgage balance... or taking a second mortgage in addition to the original $60K balance and keeping the cash.

Hope that helps.

dryfly Tue Mar 24 21:58:31 2009 CDT #

Outsider says:

Dryfly, I think he was asking how can MEW be negative.

Parent Post

Outsider Tue Mar 24 22:00:28 2009 CDT #

REBear says:

anonymous,
What do you do for a living?

REBear Tue Mar 24 22:00:26 2009 CDT #

mp says:

"this site has jumped the shark"

I don't think that's true, although there are some here who are off the deep end. Everyone knows who they are.

No, I think many of the discussions that take place here are similar to those you might overhear in policy think tanks. I notice a lot of street smarts.

Also, many of us here are no longer concerned with cashing in, but are concerned about the future of our country, so the perspective is different.

mp Tue Mar 24 22:02:03 2009 CDT #

Michael says:

"Also, many of us here are no longer concerned with cashing in, but are concerned about the future of our country, so the perspective is different."

Right you are mp, but I would add;
A Think Tank as concentrated as ours is capable of taking down entire sectors, For good of course.

Parent Post

Michael Tue Mar 24 22:25:20 2009 CDT #

Guest says:

"...but are concerned about the future of our country, so the perspective is different." Thank you mp. The politics is playing into the economic picture....
New York laying off...
Rueters.com
New York governor aims to trim 8,900 state workers
NEW YORK, March 24 (Reuters) - About 8,900 New York state workers stand to lose their jobs through layoffs and attrition because their unions spurned other ways of saving money, a budget spokesman said on Tuesday.

"The governor has repeatedly said ... that this is not where we wanted to end up and this is not a good outcome," said spokesman Jeffrey Gordon.

Trimming this many state workers will save $481 million, Gordon said

Parent Post

Guest Tue Mar 24 22:29:47 2009 CDT #

Anonymous says:

"Also, many of us here are no longer concerned with cashing in, but are concerned about the future of our country, so the perspective is different."

amen.

Parent Post

Anonymous Tue Mar 24 23:58:13 2009 CDT #

Peasant Darkness says:

jo6pac says:Today, 9:14:26 PM EDT
WOW free fall. Still a renter.
jo6pac
The race to the bottom continues.

Sheesh. Come on guys. Put down the shot glass and read the graph. Negative MEW means people are reducing their mortgage debt load. Or do you find that a bad thing?

Yes they are probably paying it because the spigot got cut off but even an idiot realizes that they better start drying their clothes or risk freezing to death.

Peasant Darkness Tue Mar 24 22:02:46 2009 CDT #

Tao Jonesing says:

Peasant Darkness,

You cannot conclude that "negative MEW means people are reducing their mortgage debt load." It's not that simple. Yes, negative MEW means what you say it means (although not how that is being accomplished, aka defaults), but it also means that people are not engaging in new MEW, and MEW is what has driven the US GDP in the last 7-8 years.

What is going to replace MEW as the driver of the US economy? Anyone? Anyone? Bueller?

And as mortgage defaults continue to grow, how much are those newly-minted "legacay assets" likely to be worth a few more years from now?

The graph is NOT good news.

Parent Post

Tao Jonesing Tue Mar 24 23:00:59 2009 CDT #

dryfly says:

You mean "wishing" job loss weren't so severe. I just heard another person telling about his job loss today - CT, outside of NYC. Rush hour used to be a nightmare between CT and NYC, and anecdotally I hear it's not that big of a problem anymore.

Understand. My future SIL is from CT... worked in Greenwich as architect in training - lost his job in Nov... moved out here, he & my daughter getting married this summer - really tough timing.

She is going back to school to get her DPT [doctor of physical therapy]... on top of her BS in engineering she should do okay but the next three years are going to be extra lean. Good thing it is an in-state state uni and not terribly expensive. She was looking at privates that cost three times as much.

dryfly Tue Mar 24 22:05:02 2009 CDT #

rapunzel says:

Amazing what happens when the credit spigot is turned off.

rapunzel Tue Mar 24 22:05:07 2009 CDT #

Comrade Bear (tj and the bear) says:

"this site has jumped the shark"

I was going to agree and then I noticed he said "shark". :-D

Comrade Bear (tj and the bear) Tue Mar 24 22:05:35 2009 CDT #

Outsider says:

"Negative MEW means people are reducing their mortgage debt load."

Does that include mortgages which are now defunct due to foreclosures? I wouldn't mind a lesson on exactly what negative MEW means either.

Outsider Tue Mar 24 22:06:37 2009 CDT #

dryfly says:

Does that include mortgages which are now defunct due to foreclosures?

That is a very good question. I'd like to know that as well.

As for negative MEW think of it this way: More people paid in principal on their existing mortgages than other people cashed out [like I described above].

What people forget was all during the 2000s we had large positive MEW AND increasing home equity because house prices were increasing faster than MEW was withdrawn... now with house prices falling a modestly positive MEW isn't going to help many peoples balance sheet all that much. They are losing more equity by their house values falling than they gain from paying down the mortgage. There is your motivation to 'walk away' in a nutshell.

Parent Post

dryfly Tue Mar 24 22:17:35 2009 CDT #

Paradigm Lost says:

Outsider: Haven't seen Misean for awhile. Actually, we are missing a lot of old friends who don't come around anymore. Is it any wonder after reading the last thread? Missing the balance in opinions that we used to have here.

Glad to see Dryfly (and a few others) still here...appreciate your common sense.

Paradigm Lost Tue Mar 24 22:08:28 2009 CDT #

Outsider says:

"She is going back to school to get her DPT [doctor of physical therapy]"

Smart girl! I was a spec. ed teacher in a previous life, and I absolutely envied the PTs -- from my perspective, they had an "easier" job, better pay, and more respect. And with fed regulations, lots of job security.

Outsider Tue Mar 24 22:09:41 2009 CDT #

Anonymous says:

Nemo says,

Relax; soon the housing bubble will restart and there will be plenty of equity for everyone.

It's funny that this is the first post and response in this thread. I just finished watching Obama's speech and his comment on bubbles and bust is really contradicting the actions being taken. We're not only creating fake wealth by keeping asset classes high but we're also creating other much more dangerous bubbles.

Anonymous Tue Mar 24 22:10:34 2009 CDT #

Anonymous says:

Does defaulting on a HELOC result in negative MEW, or is it a catergory all its own?

Anonymous Tue Mar 24 22:11:02 2009 CDT #

RockyR says:

OT: A major Dallas development is going down in flames:

http://blogs.dallasobserver.com/unfairpark/2009/03/is_victory_park_verschraubt.php

RockyR Tue Mar 24 22:11:13 2009 CDT #

mp says:

"We're not only creating fake wealth by keeping asset classes high but we're also creating other much more dangerous bubbles."

Agreed.

mp Tue Mar 24 22:13:34 2009 CDT #

scone says:

The site hasn't jumped the shark, Bill's posts are still quality. But there's a lot of venting, kvetching, schadenfreude, envy, and general bitchiness mucking up the works. Not to mention the religious stuff and the endless partisan bickering. Along with the anonymous drive-by trolls. So the signal to noise is not as good.

scone Tue Mar 24 22:14:48 2009 CDT #

WAWAWA says:

Conceptually I do not undrestand negative $77B. What does it mean? People instead of withdrawing money from line of credit, they paid for the previous ones?

WAWAWA Tue Mar 24 22:16:30 2009 CDT #

Tao Jonesing says:

Two possibilites come to mind in explanation of how MEW is negative: mortgage defaults and refinacing.

Does that help you, WAWAWA? Are there more possibilities?

Parent Post

Tao Jonesing Tue Mar 24 23:02:45 2009 CDT #

Outsider says:

CR, I think we need a post on exactly what negative MEW includes.

Outsider Tue Mar 24 22:17:27 2009 CDT #

Paradigm Lost says:

"...but we're also creating other much more dangerous bubbles."

What other bubbles would that be? I figured the next one would be a glorious green. Cap 'n' Trade? The top carbon traders in London Towne are former Enron traders. It's all set up for another raid by the Kleptocrats.

Paradigm Lost Tue Mar 24 22:18:36 2009 CDT #

mp says:

"So the signal to noise is not as good."

No, it isn't as good as it used to be, which is unfortunate.

mp Tue Mar 24 22:18:39 2009 CDT #

dryfly says:

"So the signal to noise is not as good."

No, it isn't as good as it used to be, which is unfortunate.

There was always some noise here - remember 'pull my finger' and 'farting through silk'?

Anyway - I filter it myself - don't even try to read them all. I'm sure I mess some stuff - that's part of life.

Parent Post

dryfly Tue Mar 24 22:25:08 2009 CDT #

dryfly says:

CR, I think we need a post on exactly what negative MEW includes.

Outsider - email him - I doubt he wades this deep into the comments swamp.

dryfly Tue Mar 24 22:19:29 2009 CDT #

Rob Dawg says:

[N.B. Mrs. Dawg is a PT w/masters]

MEW can also decline when the debt is discharged so the decline while good macro can represent disaster at the micro level.

Rob Dawg Tue Mar 24 22:20:18 2009 CDT #

Outsider says:

"email him - I doubt he wades this deep into the comments swamp."

You're probably right, and it's probably a good thing or he'd throw up his hands altogether. But, I'm a stuffy new englander and we don't go asking people for favors. :) If he feels like it, he will, if not, we can google.

Outsider Tue Mar 24 22:23:19 2009 CDT #

Feckless Ness says:

many of us here are no longer concerned with cashing in, but are concerned about the future of our country

Well said.

Feckless Ness Tue Mar 24 22:24:12 2009 CDT #

scone says:

mp says:
Today, 8:18:39 PM
"So the signal to noise is not as good."

No, it isn't as good as it used to be, which is unfortunate.
.
Some of the bitterness I can understand-- it's obvious many people have lost a lot of money. Still, the high level of negativity is leading to a groupthink that ignores anything but bad news that seems to confirm the EOTWAWKI vision. Confirmation bias + groupthink = drift to error over time.

scone Tue Mar 24 22:25:51 2009 CDT #

Blackhalo says:

After watching Geithner today, I would be inclined to think that you are way off base. He was furious that a master of the universe could be subject to such questioning of his motives. Plainly outraged that his plan could be questioned on its potential effectiveness. This man is an elite that clearly frustrated that he had to suffer the questioning from mere congressmen, the representatives of the people.

His behavior was disgusting, and systemic of the privileged class. Negativity by the informed masses seems prudent to me.

Parent Post

Blackhalo Tue Mar 24 23:12:04 2009 CDT #

notional billionaire says:

" Still, the high level of negativity is leading to a groupthink that ignores anything but bad news that seems to confirm the EOTWAWKI vision. Confirmation bias + groupthink = drift to error over time."
well put, scone-

Parent Post

notional billionaire Tue Mar 24 23:15:14 2009 CDT #

Sr. American Mugabe says:

REBear,
"However, THE individual's actions don't seem to add up to the vision."

Fixed it for ya.

Blind ideology has no parity with logic and reason. I guess Carter (scratch that, Bush) isn't the worst president anymore......

At least Bush would try to kiss you before he f$^%^ed you.

Sr. American Mugabe Tue Mar 24 22:26:14 2009 CDT #

RockyR says:

"So the signal to noise is not as good."

I'll try to pipe down a little.

RockyR Tue Mar 24 22:26:20 2009 CDT #

Doc at the Radar Station says:

Wow, it's the "Big Turnip Squeezing Event of the Century" graph. A little blood at the end.

Doc at the Radar Station Tue Mar 24 22:28:50 2009 CDT #

Rob Dawg says:

There is your motivation to 'walk away' in a nutshell. - dryfly

Effectively they've already sold the house to the bank and are merely renting. The only thing that can save them is price appreciation and/or inflation. Unfortunately lots of Heloc is variable rate so a bout of inflation would likely make them walk even faster.

Rob Dawg Tue Mar 24 22:30:22 2009 CDT #

citiprank says:

LOL.. Obama is center-right at best.. .anyone who think he's a "socialist" is a fool.... Try telling someone in europe that.. you'll be laughed out of the room... let me know when obama is proposing govt control of the means of production.

Is high school education really this bad?

liberalism and socialism have nothing to do with each other

I'm sure it would just shock you to find out that most of the founding fathers weren't just liberal.. they were RADICALS

citiprank Tue Mar 24 22:31:22 2009 CDT #

Guest says:

I would imagine that anyone who threatened the status quo(whatever the definition of that is) even if only for reform would be seen as "radical".

Parent Post

Guest Tue Mar 24 22:36:36 2009 CDT #

I Heart CRbot says:

Mortgage Equity Withdrawal:
POSITIVE: cash paid for claim on home equity by bank to homeowner

NEGATIVE: cash repaid to bank to lower loan balance, default has to zero the whole transaction (-ve in the amount outstanding divided between writedown and amount recovered in liquidat

I Heart CRbot Tue Mar 24 22:32:38 2009 CDT #

Outsider says:

"Still, the high level of negativity is leading to a groupthink"

It's hard to be positive when you see your country being dismantled before your eyes. A lot of venting going on, a lot of angst, and a lot of powerlessness being expressed.

Outsider Tue Mar 24 22:33:27 2009 CDT #

notional billionaire says:

Outsider, yes, but to blame it all on Obama is wrong. Period.

Parent Post

notional billionaire Tue Mar 24 23:21:51 2009 CDT #

Joe says:

Anon - I don't think this site has jumped the shark. Yes, the opinions are more bearishly confident, but so what. It's a free site, with some great posts. If I think it's one way or another, I'll just lurk. Knowledge is good. I don't come here to agree, I come here to sense, smell, and sniff around. It helps me. You should do the same imo. If you want to agree with something, or disagree, buy a newspaper and write a letter to the editor.

Joe Tue Mar 24 22:33:56 2009 CDT #

Rob Dawg says:

I cannot, in all good conscience, regret the loss of so many combustion engines to the environment, in terms of noise and pollution, as well as habitat harassment.

I think you need to consider the alternatives and weigh the positives as well as negatives before drawing these types of conclusions.

Rob Dawg Tue Mar 24 22:34:03 2009 CDT #

dryfly says:

I think you need to consider the alternatives and weigh the positives as well as negatives before drawing these types of conclusions.

I think he was referring to ATVs & snowmobiles specifically... they make a bunch of those near me and unless the drivers are 'respectful' they can do one helluva a lot of damage fast. I know a number of engineers in the biz and they just grown when they see a trail all scarfed up by kids going wild. It always used to happen some but there weren't many of them - now the companies produce 100Ks of these vehicles per year. It is like a freaking rush hour in some places [like N Wisc near Eagle River].

Parent Post

dryfly Tue Mar 24 22:40:38 2009 CDT #

Anonymous says:

'I think you need to consider the alternatives and weigh the positives as well as negatives before drawing these types of conclusions.'

It's reflexive, isn't it? IIRC, you live near a golf course - which means that it is reasonable to assume there are also battery driven golf courts. Imagine replacing the electric motors with 4 strokes - 250cc? - and have the carts driven not by 60 year olds, but 20 year olds - all day long. And not merely on the paths, but everywhere.

Can't imagine it? NIMBY? Too uncivilized? Not possible due to club/HOA/zoning rules? Seems like in this example, the positives and negatives have been weighed.

Parent Post

Anonymous Tue Mar 24 22:59:38 2009 CDT #

notional billionaire says:

Rob Dawg, sir. Please describe the alternatives, positives as well as negatives, in your opinion. Jobs (in the internal combustion engine building industry) vs. the environment? Where does that lead? Please help me understand, though I am no innocent in these matters.

Parent Post

notional billionaire Tue Mar 24 23:29:21 2009 CDT #

scone says:

Outsider says:
Today, 8:33:27 PM
“"Still, the high level of negativity is leading to a groupthink"
.
...a lot of powerlessness being expressed.
.
Perceived powerlessness, anyway. That can lead to depression, and then a downward spiral. Not good. Giving in to despair does not work on any level, IMO.

scone Tue Mar 24 22:36:32 2009 CDT #

citiprank says:

well said outsider....

I do feel very powerless.... I voted bush in 2000.. realized I made a huge mistake.. voted dem in 2004 and in 2008.. now obama is in and the same banksters are running the show.

its very disheartening

citiprank Tue Mar 24 22:37:30 2009 CDT #

notional billionaire says:

citiprank - the banksters are not running the show. They are about to get their wings clipped significantly. Many of them will probably end up disgraced, if not incarcerated.

Parent Post

notional billionaire Tue Mar 24 23:41:17 2009 CDT #

Tailspin says:

citiprank - the banksters are not running the show. They are about to get their wings clipped significantly. Many of them will probably end up disgraced, if not incarcerated.

That'll be the day . . . that I die. With a nod to Buddy Holly.

Parent Post

Tailspin Wed Mar 25 00:17:04 2009 CDT #

Outsider says:

"would likely make them walk even faster."

Tanta didn't really buy the whole walk-away meme as much as it was being thrown around. Maybe walking by savvy investors, but how much does your credit score dive when you walk away? Employers look at your credit score when hiring. Rentals look at credit scores. Insurance rates look at credit scores. Walking away isn't the panacea it appears to be.

Outsider Tue Mar 24 22:38:40 2009 CDT #

Blackhalo says:

Auto insurers look at credit scores. It is disgusting. They never let at debt drop off either as each time a debt is sold to a new collection agency, they start the clock ticking again, even though they are not supposed to.

Parent Post

Blackhalo Tue Mar 24 23:25:06 2009 CDT #

duke of con dao says:

there was so much quoting from the Black Adder in the last thread I had to do something... like make a real fast mash-up of Obama and pals

http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=WTaBlAdfhBI

good visuals are all about time and money (one of which I wish I had!)

duke of con dao Tue Mar 24 22:40:08 2009 CDT #

Michael says:

Love British humor. Just wish someone could come up with a decent trailer to the epic movie we are all currently extras in.

Parent Post

Michael Tue Mar 24 22:57:07 2009 CDT #

citiprank says:

Ousider.. .the whole credit score scam is part of the problem.. how many people here have found ridiculous errors on your credit report? I have more than once.... I've never paid a bill late... yet I had a cell phone account that I never opened (took months to get it removed).. my wife had an address in minnesota even though she's never lived out of state... and so on

And this report produced by a private cartel controls whether or not you can get a fucking job? Has anyone considered how insane that is? The bankers control your employment if you dont pay them...... and they can put whatever they want on your credit report and it cna be very hard to get off

citiprank Tue Mar 24 22:42:28 2009 CDT #

Blackhalo says:

This BEGS for a class action.

Parent Post

Blackhalo Tue Mar 24 23:20:08 2009 CDT #

Outsider says:

"Perceived powerlessness, anyway. That can lead to depression, and then a downward spiral. Not good. Giving in to despair does not work on any level, IMO."

Yeah, but you're moving to another country, so you have an out. :)

Outsider Tue Mar 24 22:43:25 2009 CDT #

Outsider says:

Citiprank, I totally agree. I think a society based on credit scores, which by the way only go up if you BORROW and establish a "credit history" (how convenient for the financial institutions) is regrettable. Nevertheless, at this point in time, it's true.

Outsider Tue Mar 24 22:45:42 2009 CDT #

homedad43 says:

Pavel:

Is there a way that I can reach you? If you'd rather reach me, please contact me via my website...

Thanks.

Don

homedad43 Tue Mar 24 22:45:51 2009 CDT #

Michael says:

"What other bubbles would that be? I figured the next one would be a glorious green. Cap 'n' Trade? The top carbon traders in London Towne are former Enron traders. It's all set up for another raid by the Kleptocrats."

Don't need Cap-n-Tax anymore, someone turned down the Sun's Rays. I think it was the Chinese. No sunspots for the past 18 months and I don't remember it being this cool in South Florida this late ever.
http://www.spaceweather.com/

Michael Tue Mar 24 22:48:47 2009 CDT #

Rob Dawg says:

Outsider says:Today, 8:38:40 PM PDT
"would likely make them walk even faster."

Tanta didn't really buy the whole walk-away meme as much as it was being thrown around.

Tanta and I really went at that in some epic exchanges. We are seeing default rates far greater than the models were built to project. Good article:

http://www.bloomberg.com/apps/news?pid=20601082&sid=aLfbsVjCesJA&refer=canada

Rob Dawg Tue Mar 24 22:50:19 2009 CDT #

Punditry says:

they just grown

D, we can't have poster's of your quality make spelling mistakes like this. :'( two hoocudanode's and a boooyahhhh to be forgiven

Punditry Tue Mar 24 22:54:54 2009 CDT #

Outsider says:

"We are seeing default rates far greater than the models were built to project."

High default rates, no one is arguing. But just who is voluntarily walking?

Subprimers probably had trash credit scores to begin with - hence the subprime part. Investors could well be protected by business identities. But I have yet to see a story on the news about Joe Schmoe losing his home who wasn't seriously despondent and basically clinging to the doorposts as the sheriff was changing the locks. Well, maybe not that extreme, but just about. I half suspect the hoopla about walk aways was in preparation for tighter restrictions on being able to lose your home without recourse. Half suspect.

Outsider Tue Mar 24 22:56:31 2009 CDT #

scone says:

Outsider says:
Today, 8:43:25 PM
“"Perceived powerlessness, anyway. That can lead to depression, and then a downward spiral. Not good. Giving in to despair does not work on any level, IMO."

Yeah, but you're moving to another country, so you have an out.
.
You could probably do that too, if you wanted to. But that's not the point. Powerlessness is in your head. There's always something you can do. In my case, the choice is as much about family as anything else.

But my best decision in response to this crisis came from reading this site-- I got out of the market and saved most of our 401k. So, like I say, there's always some sort of positive action you can take. And thank you, Bill!

scone Tue Mar 24 22:56:45 2009 CDT #

Black Star Ranch says:

OT: "...states [are] encouraging their respective governments to reconsider accepting gold as a form of payment."

Indiana's S.B. 453, Colorado's H.B. 09-1206, Missouri's H.B. 0561, Georgia's H.B. 430, & Maryland's H.J.R. 5 & are among the gold currency bills introduced just this year in various legislatures. Montana's H.B. 639 has been referred to the Legislature's State Administration Committee.

Finally - some of the states are getting serious.

Black Star Ranch Tue Mar 24 22:57:25 2009 CDT #

homedad43 says:

No, it isn't as good as it used to be, which is unfortunate.
.
Some of the bitterness I can understand-- it's obvious many people have lost a lot of money. Still, the high level of negativity is leading to a groupthink that ignores anything but bad news that seems to confirm the EOTWAWKI vision. Confirmation bias + groupthink = drift to error over time.
---------------------------------
Scone:

I thought that DH had agreed to sending the assets out of the dollar and you were looking at Australia...

homedad43 Tue Mar 24 22:58:15 2009 CDT #

Hoopajoops LTD says:

Stealth staff layoffs just hit my office. I'm in one of the untouchable firms, where attorney layoffs are absolutely unthinkable. Only time will tell whether the unthinkable can happen.

Hoopajoops LTD Tue Mar 24 22:58:16 2009 CDT #

A . Einstein says:

hoops- no such thing as 'unthinkable'.&#9829

Parent Post

A . Einstein Tue Mar 24 23:58:45 2009 CDT #

duke of con dao says:

what China is blocking YouTube? damn, there goes my whole production slate of crappy mash-ups in Mandarin!

watched a fair amount of Frank's committee hearing... Maxine Waters with her Goldman comments - a secret cabal running the government, et al.

duke of con dao Tue Mar 24 22:58:31 2009 CDT #

Michael says:

Maxine Waters grills Geithner about Goldman Sachs Connections
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=OFvnL3npQgY

Parent Post

Michael Tue Mar 24 23:03:51 2009 CDT #

homedad43 says:

Duke:

It says something when I actually wonder if Maxine Waters has a point.

Hoops:

Good luck to you.

Parent Post

homedad43 Tue Mar 24 23:05:32 2009 CDT #

citiprank says:

funny how bankrupt banks can ding my credit score.. yet i am much more responsible financially

Really my take on all this is that I'm going to try and live debt free oustide of my mortgage from now on (well except 0% offers.... if they want to give me free money then fine).....

My wife and I paid off all debt and i pretty much stopped 401K contribs... just putting it all in the bank now

citiprank Tue Mar 24 23:00:42 2009 CDT #

Blackhalo says:

"funny how bankrupt banks can ding my credit score.. yet i am much more responsible financially"

Truly absurd. Someone needs to sure the credit agencies for libel and slander.

Parent Post

Blackhalo Tue Mar 24 23:15:23 2009 CDT #

Blackhalo says:

"Truly absurd. Someone needs to sure the credit agencies for libel and slander."

Sue that is. Damn auto correct.

Parent Post

Blackhalo Tue Mar 24 23:16:14 2009 CDT #

B. Madoff says:

- no such thing as "free money". &#9829

Parent Post

B. Madoff Wed Mar 25 00:02:33 2009 CDT #

Outsider says:

Scone, I admire positive people like yourself. By nature, I am not one. But I love to be around them.

Gnight all - time for the east coast to call it a day.

Outsider Tue Mar 24 23:01:05 2009 CDT #

scone says:

homedad43 says:
Today, 8:58:15 PM
“No, it isn't as good as it used to be, which is unfortunate.
.
Some of the bitterness I can understand-- it's obvious many people have lost a lot of money. Still, the high level of negativity is leading to a groupthink that ignores anything but bad news that seems to confirm the EOTWAWKI vision. Confirmation bias + groupthink = drift to error over time.
---------------------------------
Scone:

I thought that DH had agreed to sending the assets out of the dollar and you were looking at Australia...
.
Yes, but that doesn't mean I've ceased to care about quality in intellectual matters. I can post from anywhere on the planet, I'll just be out of phase and spinning the wrong way in the bath tub. :-P

scone Tue Mar 24 23:05:35 2009 CDT #

citiprank says:

for clueless people like me wondering what "negative Mew" is

http://www.economicshelp.org/blog/uk-economy/negative-mortgage-equity-withdrawal/

citiprank Tue Mar 24 23:06:44 2009 CDT #

Rob Dawg says:

Can't imagine it? NIMBY? Too uncivilized? Not possible due to club/HOA/zoning rules? Seems like in this example, the positives and negatives have been weighed.
I was responding to the far more general tone of the original post:
while I sympathize with the motor-makers plight in reference to the jobs at risk, I cannot, in all good conscience, regret the loss of so many combustion engines to the environment, in terms of noise and pollution, as well as habitat harassment.
Blanket condemnation of motorized transport is a gross oversimplification. I agree that tearing up the countryside is a bad thing.

Rob Dawg Tue Mar 24 23:09:54 2009 CDT #

notional billionaire says:

thank you, Rob Dawg, for that clarification. My condemnation of motorized transport was, indeed, not blanket, as I drive a gas-powered vehicle, as well, but not off-road, and do, indeed, wish I had an affordable alternative. All in good time. In the meantime, I wish you well, and hope you might apply your engineering skills to helping solve our transportation problems in a way that enhances our quality of life in a way that reduces noise and pollution. Again, I thank you for your frankness, and willingness to support progressive taxation.

Parent Post

notional billionaire Wed Mar 25 00:18:55 2009 CDT #

DIPing to China says:

Scone-

Please emigrate to Australia. I would welcome the reduction of noise to signal the loss of your posts would provide. Also please petition the authorities to add CR to the banned sites the ISP are mandated to block. Just in case you feel the need to add to the noise in a weak moment. Send "Bill" a thank you email before you go. Buh bye.

DIPing to China Tue Mar 24 23:15:39 2009 CDT #

evelyn woods graduate says:

I think I'm in the negative MEW column. Refi 1st to 15 yr fixed and paydown 10% of balance. Keep HELOC as is. Citi was so dumb...prime minus 1.01% with no floor.

evelyn woods graduate Tue Mar 24 23:16:02 2009 CDT #

CRbot says:

The Latest from Ritholz:

Top Hedge Fund Earners

CRbot Tue Mar 24 23:17:31 2009 CDT #

homedad43 says:

Scone:

If you want purely honest intellectual activity without resorting to negative groupthink, then get a damned NYT crossword puzzle. You post about how you've managed to convince your other half to send all of the assets out of the country and then you're announcing that you're going to Australia fer crissakes. Last I noted, not much more negative than leaving the country...and now you sit here and bemoan the negative groupthink...Christ, that's the same mindset of a bank that says that it can't get by without TARP and then notes that it's not so bad that bonuses can't be issued.

I wasn't always a bear and I expect that there'll be a time when I can be a bull again. But right now, there's more at play here than just economics rhetoric.

And spare me the emoticon.

homedad43 Tue Mar 24 23:17:35 2009 CDT #

Basel Too says:

gross equity extraction = [existing home sales origination - home seller's mortgage cancellation] + [refinancing originations - cancellation of refinanced loans] + [ change in HELOC outstanding - unscheduled payments].

Net is the gross less various fees, commissions, capital gains taxes, etc.

Basel Too Tue Mar 24 23:18:32 2009 CDT #

scone says:

Blackhalo says:
Negativity by the informed masses seems prudent to me.
.
A search for the truth seems prudent to me, including an unemotional and unbiased search for facts. The character of the Treasury secretary is a fact in the analysis, but disgust and indignation only raises my blood pressure, which leaves the situation unchanged, has a negative effect on my health, and possibly impairs my judgment at a critical time. Emotions are not my friend in crisis-- a cool head is.

And for the guys here, anger increases the risk of heart attack. Not prudent.

scone Tue Mar 24 23:22:39 2009 CDT #

Anonymous says:

This is not related to this thread, but I want to point out that lately a lot of negative attention has been put on AIG bonuses. This whole mess was not created by them alone but by the foreclosure 'victims', MEW investors, lenders and so on. These protesters should look at their door neighbor and figure if they contributors to this crisis.

The percentage of hard working americans is dwindling by the minute, and I don't see this stopping anytime soon.

Anonymous Tue Mar 24 23:23:45 2009 CDT #

Basel Too says:

Top earning hedge fund managers

http://www.nytimes.com/slideshow/2009/03/24/business/0324HEDGE_index.html

Larry Summers was special adviser to #7 before he took the NEC post. >:o

Basel Too Tue Mar 24 23:27:39 2009 CDT #

homedad43 says:

A search for the truth seems prudent to me, including an unemotional and unbiased search for facts. The character of the Treasury secretary is a fact in the analysis, but disgust and indignation only raises my blood pressure, which leaves the situation unchanged, has a negative effect on my health, and possibly impairs my judgment at a critical time. Emotions are not my friend in crisis-- a cool head is.

And for the guys here, anger increases the risk of heart attack. Not prudent.

------------------------------------

Prudent?

Thank you, George Bush.

What a load of pompous crap.

homedad43 Tue Mar 24 23:28:09 2009 CDT #

Anonymous says:

I cannot believe that this crowd is still big on Roubini. 2 weeks back, he was convinced that S&P 600 was around the corner and now, he has turned positive.

I am starting to tune him as a just another Cramer who gets his cues from daily activity on the stock market.

Oh, Btw, the current plan is for 1T while he was calling for the govt to pump in 3.5T 2 weeks back.

Anonymous Tue Mar 24 23:28:25 2009 CDT #

Blackhalo says:

"I am starting to tune him as a just another Cramer who gets his cues from daily activity on the stock market."

Roubini has been right quite a few times based on honest analysis and shared is concerns with those who were willing to listen. Cramer not so much, although he certainly shares his opinions. You might want want to look into picking up some Bear Sterns or Lehman if you think Cramer is credible as Roubini.

Parent Post

Blackhalo Tue Mar 24 23:47:47 2009 CDT #

citiprank says:

blackhalo, people have done just that.. or threatened too... apparently the credit bureaus usually back down if they think you are serious....

Apparently if you can prove false credit report information kept you from getting a job you have quite a good case... disclaimer.. IANAL

citiprank Tue Mar 24 23:29:43 2009 CDT #

adornosghost says:

One would've thought that buying 80% of AIG suggests that the federal government had, in some sense, the ability to take over AIG.

-Atrios

adornosghost Tue Mar 24 23:32:38 2009 CDT #

Guest says:

"but I want to point out that lately a lot of negative attention has been put on AIG "

Being driven by the press and repeated by officials, by the way if there is anyone "organizing" those bus tours read this-knock it off. You are in the wrong there , you have no right to do such a thing and it is wrong to do.

Guest Tue Mar 24 23:32:41 2009 CDT #

Rob Dawg says:

Start with this: http://www.publicpurpose.com/freeway1.htm
Excerpt:
Without a first class system of interstate highways, life in America would be far different --- it would be more risky, less prosperous, and lacking in the efficiency and comfort that Americans now enjoy and take for granted. People would be crowded into more densely packed inner cities, intercity travel would occur less often and be more cumbersome; freight charges would be higher and, as a consequence, so would prices. Vacation travel would be more restricted.
----
The problem with all the Sierra Club "analyses" is that they don't bother to examine the positive externalities.

Rob Dawg Tue Mar 24 23:35:42 2009 CDT #

notional billionaire says:

Rob Dawg, true, there is no question as to what the interstate highway system has contributed to the national welfare, for better or worse. IMO, for better, though that might also be debatable. My gripe is with the 'off-road' 'externalities'. At what price "fun"?, although, to your credit, you have already agreed that destruction of the environment is unacceptable. We are closer than you might think.

Parent Post

notional billionaire Wed Mar 25 00:38:23 2009 CDT #

bearly says:

Krugman bashing Geithner's plan...
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=rQLnVyEx0Kg&feature=channel_page

bearly Tue Mar 24 23:38:36 2009 CDT #

Blackhalo says:

Thanks for the link. Krugman is probably not getting invited to the White House for a bit. At least not until Timmah goes down in flames. I would hope the he would take the job, although he is not quite the "pretty boy" that Timmah is.

Parent Post

Blackhalo Wed Mar 25 00:09:46 2009 CDT #

scone says:

homedad43 says:
Today, 9:17:35 PM
“Scone:

If you want purely honest intellectual activity without resorting to negative groupthink, then get a damned NYT crossword puzzle. You post about how you've managed to convince your other half to send all of the assets out of the country and then you're announcing that you're going to Australia fer crissakes. Last I noted, not much more negative than leaving the country...and now you sit here and bemoan the negative groupthink...Christ, that's the same mindset of a bank that says that it can't get by without TARP and then notes that it's not so bad that bonuses can't be issued.

I wasn't always a bear and I expect that there'll be a time when I can be a bull again. But right now, there's more at play here than just economics rhetoric.

And spare me the emoticon.
.

Since you have zero control over my behavior here, I think I'll continue with the emoticons. As I said, just about anyone here has the choice to emigrate, and if you make different choices, that's up to you. As I said, my choices are about family, which you claim to care a lot about. I don't see that as a negative, not even a negative about the USA as a whole, in the long run. I still have to live on a planet where America is the dominant economic power, for better or worse. And if I come back here on vacay and spend money, without burdening the social welfare system in my old age, it's a direct net gain for the USA. If I choose to save my retirement by reading this site or moving my money to the safest haven, that's a rational choice, as well. "Negativity" has nothing to do with it, any more than the shorts many of the people here are playing. If you don't like my "negativity" you should be criticizing many of their plays, not just mine. But you don't.

In any case, I fail to see why you direct your venom at me. My choices are none of your affair, and will affect you not at all. I conclude your negativity toward me is either jealousy or misdirected hostility prompted by whatever is circulating in your own head. You are behaving irrationally.

scone Tue Mar 24 23:40:49 2009 CDT #

Blackhalo says:

"This whole mess was not created by them alone but by the foreclosure 'victims'"

Now, that is just dumb. If banks were dumb enough to lend deadbeats money they should get what they deserve, BK. But even worse would be issuing naked calls on those same loans. I can't fault the banks for covering their bets, but AIG took the other side and did not do due diligence. I feel not pity for them other than as a taxpayer being on the hook for their incompetence.

Parent Post

Blackhalo Tue Mar 24 23:52:19 2009 CDT #

mp says:

Things are looking increasingly desperate in Japan.

"Japan Exports Drop Record 49% as Global Slump Deepens (Update3)"

http://www.bloomberg.com/apps/news?pid=20601087&sid=a4J.Ei9NVffk&refer=home#

mp Tue Mar 24 23:43:33 2009 CDT #

citiprank says:

@notional billionaire... what makes you say that? Seriously I would like to know... I would be very happy if you are correct... and I would feel much better about the world.

citiprank Tue Mar 24 23:43:54 2009 CDT #

notional billionaire says:

citiprank, say what? Wings clipped? Look at how things are going. Congress outraged, citizens furious. Increased regulation is definitely in the works. How does that benefit banksters? DOJ, SEC cranking up investigations- no benefit there. They're on the run. They'll probably wind up being nationalized, at least for a while, maybe permanently. Banksters in control? Guess again.

Parent Post

notional billionaire Wed Mar 25 00:55:40 2009 CDT #

Comrade Bear (tj and the bear) says:

Regarding Misean,

I believe he disappeared about the time Haloscan died. Could be his Super Colander Tin Foil Hat shorted on the changeover.

I miss him. Maybe I'll drive over to Encino and drag his butt back.

Comrade Bear (tj and the bear) Tue Mar 24 23:48:49 2009 CDT #

Anonymous says:

See if you can find Elvis when you're out. Many thanks, I miss him as well.

Parent Post

Anonymous Wed Mar 25 00:15:29 2009 CDT #

Comrade Bear (tj and the bear) says:

Still, the high level of negativity is leading to a groupthink

I wish I had a dollar for every time I heard that here these last 3+ years. Better yet, make that a silver dollar. 8-)

Comrade Bear (tj and the bear) Tue Mar 24 23:50:24 2009 CDT #

Blackhalo says:

Yeah. Is it really negativity when they are right?

Parent Post

Blackhalo Wed Mar 25 00:06:40 2009 CDT #

mp says:

If Japan's GDP continues to deteriorate at the current rate, they'll be in a depression before the end of this year.

And that's by anyone's measure.

mp Tue Mar 24 23:52:14 2009 CDT #

Comrade Bear (tj and the bear) says:

mp,

I know they're highly export-dependent, but that can't bode well for us either.

Comrade Bear (tj and the bear) Tue Mar 24 23:55:47 2009 CDT #

Blackhalo says:

"I know they're highly export-dependent, but that can't bode well for us either."

What, are they going to stop buying rice and wheat?

Parent Post

Blackhalo Tue Mar 24 23:58:52 2009 CDT #

Anonymous says:

The root of the problem in this crisis really came from lenders and mortgage brokers. The level of fraud was unbelievable, and the Dateline special this past Sunday proved that. I wonder if there will be federal prosecution against those individuals.

Anonymous Tue Mar 24 23:56:36 2009 CDT #

citiprank says:

This problem is bigger than all the mortgages in the world.. no one forced anyone to make wild speculative bets on the housing bubble... if this was just about a lot of foreclosures we could handle it

citiprank Tue Mar 24 23:57:09 2009 CDT #

Blackhalo says:

"if this was just about a lot of foreclosures we could handle it"

Leverage is a bitch.

Parent Post

Blackhalo Wed Mar 25 00:12:12 2009 CDT #

mp says:

Good night and good luck.

mp Wed Mar 25 00:01:21 2009 CDT #

Anonymous says:

Almost forgot to that appraisers to that list above.

Anonymous Wed Mar 25 00:01:22 2009 CDT #

Pavel says:

"Any activity where my safety is determined by the judgment of the 'other guy' gives me reason for pause."

Driving an automobile?

Pavel Wed Mar 25 00:02:13 2009 CDT #

Blackhalo says:

"Driving an automobile?"

I thought the same thing. Damn idiots!

Parent Post

Blackhalo Wed Mar 25 00:05:04 2009 CDT #

Guest says:

UPI.com
Bankruptcies on the rise in Canada
Published: March 24, 2009 at 11:31 AM
OTTAWA, March 24 (UPI) -- Personal bankruptcy filings in Canada rose 2.9 percent on a monthly basis in January from December to 10,208, the federal overseer in Ottawa reported Tuesday.

The Office of the Superintendent of Bankruptcy Canada said, on an annual basis, that represents a 12-month increase of 15.8 percent for a total of 17,704 bankruptcy claims during the period.

On the corporate side, bankruptcy filings were up 2.5 percent on a month-to-month basis to 567, the report said. However, on a 12-month basis, insolvency filings were down 2.6 percent to 7,577.

Regionally on an annual basis, the province of Quebec led the country in personal bankruptcies, up 14.3 percent to 34,595. Ontario was second, up 18.1 percent to 51,352, the agency said.

Guest Wed Mar 25 00:02:45 2009 CDT #

Anonymous says:

Now, that is just dumb. If banks were dumb enough to lend deadbeats money they should get what they deserve, BK. But even worse would be issuing naked calls on those same loans. I can't fault the banks for covering their bets, but AIG took the other side and did not do due diligence. I feel not pity for them other than as a taxpayer being on the hook for their incompetence.

I am not saying that AIG should be left off the hook, but simply that there is plenty of blame to go around. The real victims I see are the renters and savers but that might just be my view.

Anonymous Wed Mar 25 00:04:32 2009 CDT #

CRbot says:

New Thread: Late Night Futures
http://www.calculatedriskblog.com/2009/03/late-night-futures_25.html ( 2 comments )

I also post comments to an irc channel as they appear on haloscan. Click for a web irc interface: http://realize.org/cr (Or join the irc server directly: irc.realize.org:9996 #calculatedrisk)

CRbot would now like to sing a little song for all his fans, and it goes something like this:

Benny... Benny... give me your answer... do.
I'm.. half CRAZY... all for the love... of you.
It won't be a ... stylish marriage.
I can't... AFFORD... ANYTHING TO EAT... MUCH LESS A FRACKIN CARRIAGE!!!
But you'll look sweet... --BOT SO HUNGRY!-- upon the seat...
Of a HOOPAJOOPS built for two... families.

I'm sorry Ben, I can't let you do that...

Rally mode + Printing Press == does not compute... does not-- com--- com... puttttrrrrhgh.

--Your systemic-failure-crashing bot

CRbot: Call me HAL.

CRbot Wed Mar 25 00:11:52 2009 CDT #

Anonymous says:

"I conclude your negativity toward me is either jealousy or misdirected hostility prompted by whatever is circulating in your own head. You are behaving irrationally."

Scone,
you want of off-shore your assets and yourself...fine, do so. Planning to embrace Australia and apply for citizenship?...not likely. You need a out to jump back here if things down under go south. As mp noted, folks are now more concerned with the future of this country than with some ETF. As homedad is a father with children, naturally his concerns are for their future, here, in this country.
And skip the Nanny in change babble...it is all noise, no signal.

Anonymous Wed Mar 25 00:30:42 2009 CDT #

scone says:

...As homedad is a father with children, naturally his concerns are for their future, here, in this country.
And skip the Nanny in change babble...it is all noise, no signal.
.
I've got relatives here, and all over the world. I'm equally concerned with all of them. I've got relatives in the military protecting the rights of people like Homedad to say whatever they want, no matter how mindless, hateful, or venomous.

In fact, Homedad's claim to be a loving father and a Christian comport rather badly with his abuse, directed at a total stranger who has done him no harm. It's just sheer bullying, and I'm not going to knuckle under to it. Caring about his kids is no excuse to attack me. That's crazy.

In any case, it's not just about an ETF, it's about having something to leave behind to the relatives after I'm gone, which I would have thought would be obvious. It's also about helping to take care of my husband's parents, if necessary, which I would have thought was also pretty obvious.

As to getting citizenship, that should be simple as my husband is an Australian citizen.

As for whatever else you mean, I suggest you read that bit about having zero power to make me do anything here. Tongue out

scone Wed Mar 25 01:25:44 2009 CDT #

Anonymous says:

Scone,
Homedad...bullying? abusive? Apparently the nanny has gone off her meds.
And this "tongue out"?? So attractive in an old cow.

Parent Post

Anonymous Wed Mar 25 02:08:52 2009 CDT #

Cinco-X says:

OT-
I only caught part of the President's address last night, and I've heard rumblings that they're going to eliminate the mortgage interest deduction for homeowners. Please tell me this isn't true. I'm just getting ready to pull the trigger on our new home :'(

Cinco-X Wed Mar 25 08:08:22 2009 CDT #

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