Comments for Sunday Night Futures
Anonymous says:
1
Anonymous Sun Mar 15 23:01:08 2009 CDT #
CRbot says:
This comment thread has been HALO-IZED by CRbot.
http://realize.org/cr/halokit.php?halourl=http://www.haloscan.com/comments/calculatedrisk/7517853819979147584
CRbot Sun Mar 15 23:01:37 2009 CDT #
Leftys Liquors,Lubricants, and Tarp Bank says:
1.5
Leftys Liquors,Lubricants, and Tarp Bank Sun Mar 15 23:02:30 2009 CDT #
NorkaWest says:
2.0
NorkaWest Sun Mar 15 23:03:38 2009 CDT #
Uncle Billy, Mental Widget says:
{{grunt}}
That was an interesting moment to put up the new post.
Night all. Verify, verify, verify, and then maybe trust a few years down the line.
Uncle Billy, Mental Widget Sun Mar 15 23:04:42 2009 CDT #
Peasant Darkness says:
The window of opportunity for the new administration to demonstrate they will actually provide justice and return some trust to the system, is closing fast.
Peasant Darkness Sun Mar 15 23:04:58 2009 CDT #
NorkaWest says:
If we keep this up, how long until we equal the total amount of bailout money spent to date?
NorkaWest Sun Mar 15 23:05:02 2009 CDT #
debtinator says:
3.149
debtinator Sun Mar 15 23:05:14 2009 CDT #
Lucifer says:
People will not start waking up till
1] A G-7 country's government is toppled by mass demonstrations.
2] 2-3 major US states cannot meet their payroll or pensions.
Any guesses about the timing of these events? My guess- before this year is over.
Lucifer Sun Mar 15 23:05:52 2009 CDT #
FFDIC says:
666
FFDIC Sun Mar 15 23:06:03 2009 CDT #
Lucifer says:
FDIC,
That is my number!
:-D
How is your daughter?
Lucifer Sun Mar 15 23:07:25 2009 CDT #
debtinator says:
∞
debtinator Sun Mar 15 23:08:53 2009 CDT #
Anonymous says:
Hey FFDIC, why the 200 FDIC agents to Puerto Rico? Just old-fashioned government corruption? How many agents does it take to inspect a balance sheet?
Anonymous Sun Mar 15 23:11:45 2009 CDT #
Lawyerliz says:
200 agents obviously. 199 to find the accurate one, and one agent to read it, and 199 again to pick him/her off the floor.
Parent Post
Lawyerliz Mon Mar 16 07:39:37 2009 CDT #
MrM says:
From NY Times
"WASHINGTON — The Obama administration is increasingly concerned about a populist backlash against banks and Wall Street, worried that anger at financial institutions could also end up being directed at Congress and the White House and could complicate President Obama’s agenda."
Why is it called "populist" backlash, not "popular"?
Back to the article
"Beyond that, a shifting political mood challenges Mr. Obama’s political skills, as he seeks to acknowledge the anger without becoming a target of it. A central question for Mr. Obama is whether his cool style — “in a time of crisis, we cannot afford to govern out of anger,” he said in his address to Congress last month — will prove effective when the country may be feeling more emotional."
Obama has to stop playing political games, step up and decide what is fair and what is right. He has to stop delegating addressing key issues to technocrats like Summers or Geithner. The solution to the financial mess is not that complicated, after all - many people like Buiter or Johnson already laid it out in detail. It is all about Obama's values and priorities now.
Good night, all
MrM Sun Mar 15 23:12:07 2009 CDT #
evelyn woods graduate says:
People will not start waking up till
3] Walmart becomes Bank Holding Co
evelyn woods graduate Sun Mar 15 23:12:16 2009 CDT #
dreadlord76 says:
Walmart actually serves a Useful purpose of selling things to the public. What exactly does BofA or Citi do that can't be done by other banks?
dreadlord76 Sun Mar 15 23:14:36 2009 CDT #
RE says:
And just to add, from the link by FFDIC in the WSJ:
U.S. officials came to the weekend's finance ministers' summit hoping to persuade other countries to embark on a fresh round of spending. They left under pressure to fix the weak U.S. banking sector.
...
The turnaround suggests the limits of U.S. power in the world emerging out of the rubble of the financial crisis. Many countries, including U.S. allies, are increasingly putting pressure on America to clean up a mess they believe it created. ...
There is an international world out there that has a very different perception of what is needed. The administration is between a rock and a hard place.
RE Sun Mar 15 23:15:32 2009 CDT #
Michael says:
"The turnaround suggests the limits of U.S. power in the world emerging out of the rubble of the financial crisis. Many countries, including U.S. allies, are increasingly putting pressure on America to clean up a mess they believe it created."
Do you think there could be a person, family, or small group of people so powerful that they could just tell us what they want the US to do to fix the problem we created? I imagine the Bilderberg Group think they have so much power that they can lord over us as they wish. Imagine having that much power in so few hands.
Parent Post
Michael Sun Mar 15 23:24:21 2009 CDT #
Lucifer says:
I agree!!
//Deadlord76 says:Today, 22:14:36
Walmart actually serves a Useful purpose of selling things to the public. What exactly does BofA or Citi do that can't be done by other banks?//
Lucifer Sun Mar 15 23:16:24 2009 CDT #
dreadlord76 says:
Saw Geitner on a Fox talk show today for like 5 seconds, and began to feel physically ill.
Something is really wrong with our system when McCain and BHO were the top vote getters in the last election...
dreadlord76 Sun Mar 15 23:16:54 2009 CDT #
REBear says:
HSBC CFO says it won't need U.K. bailout : report
>>
Say yes to US bailout!
REBear Sun Mar 15 23:16:56 2009 CDT #
dreadlord76 says:
Oh, as for AIG bonuses, what talent are they trying to keep? Any employee that is part of the team that losses $160B should go back to waiting tables, and not be rewarded for their achievements.
dreadlord76 Sun Mar 15 23:19:58 2009 CDT #
debtinator says:
♥
debtinator Sun Mar 15 23:22:19 2009 CDT #
Doc Holiday says:
Plato says: Excess of liberty, whether it lies in state or individuals, seems only to pass into excess of slavery.
Good people do not need laws to tell them to act responsibly, while bad people will find a way around the laws.
We can easily forgive a child who is afraid of the dark; the real tragedy of life is when men are afraid of the light.
> Время должно быть использовано для обеспечения правосудия :-E
Doc Holiday Sun Mar 15 23:22:59 2009 CDT #
1 currency [yogi] says:
I just can't take it any more: rouge is a French color.
Rogue is an outlaw.
1 currency [yogi] Sun Mar 15 23:24:36 2009 CDT #
alex black says:
Dreadlord, you have to read between the lines. The bonus money isn't reward for achievement - it's hush money to buy their silence. Working nicely, no?
alex black Sun Mar 15 23:27:34 2009 CDT #
debtinator says:
Moulin Rogue.
debtinator Sun Mar 15 23:27:51 2009 CDT #
Doc Holiday says:
Treasury Premium Triples for U.S.’s Newest Bonds (Update2)
“It’s a pretty telling sign that things are not back to normal,” said Wan-Chong Kung, who helps manage $76 billion in fixed income at FAF Advisors in Minneapolis, the asset- management arm of U.S. Bancorp.
Since the start of the year, investors have focused on the rise in Treasury sales as the Obama administration raises funds to pay for the $11.7 trillion bailout of the banking system, as estimated by Bloomberg calculations, and the $787 billion economic rescue package. The economy may contract 1.8 percent this year, after expanding 1.1 percent in 2008, according to a Bloomberg survey of 65 economists.
New York-based Goldman Sachs Group Inc., another primary dealer, estimates the U.S. will almost triple sales this year to a record $2.5 trillion.
The London interbank offered rate, or Libor, that banks say they charge each other for three-month loans, crept to 1.33 percent last week from this year’s low of 1.08 percent on Jan. 14, the British Bankers’ Association in London said. The premium they charge each other for short-term loans as measured by the so-called Libor-OIS spread has remained above 1 percentage point since Feb. 19 after holding below that threshold in the prior five weeks.
:-[
Doc Holiday Sun Mar 15 23:28:00 2009 CDT #
Richard says:
another day, another theft by our leadership. next.
Richard Sun Mar 15 23:30:02 2009 CDT #
Doc Holiday says:
Goodnight, but this really should make people think before burning cash on anything:
Government loans, spending or guarantees to rescue the country’s financial system already total more than $11.7 trillion, according to data compiled by Bloomberg.
Then that deal last week, with FICO: "Before we do the credit cards, we are actually not done with the mortgage [crisis] - the worst of that is yet to come in fact. The thing about mortgages is you can predict when they are going to reset and you can sort of see what is coming. We easily have another 12 to 18 months of pretty ugly times in terms of mortgage resetting. ... Credit cards are next."
Keep your powder dry and away from the windows!! :-P
Doc Holiday Sun Mar 15 23:31:47 2009 CDT #
Jungle Juggs says:
Break through 666 and the beast takes this sucker downtown and stays for 15 years.
Jungle Juggs Sun Mar 15 23:32:56 2009 CDT #
Tim waiting for 2012 says:
Citi Paying New Hires Millions In Signing Bonuses
http://www.reuters.com/article/newsOne/idUSTRE52C5EC20090313
Tim waiting for 2012 Sun Mar 15 23:34:47 2009 CDT #
solohedger says:
Goldman Sachs had said in the past that its exposure to A.I.G.’s financial trouble was “immaterial.” A Goldman Sachs representative was not reachable on Sunday to address whether that characterization still held.
http://www.nytimes.com/2009/03/16/business/16rescue.html?_r=1&hp
solohedger Sun Mar 15 23:35:00 2009 CDT #
Elrod says:
Populists on the left, pseudo-populists on the right. Populists demand accountability and an end to bailouts of AIG and other criminals on Wall Street. Pseudo-populists on the right demand an end to assistance to ordinary Americans who lost in the real estate bubble.
Sounds like the 1930s - Upton Sinclair on the Left and Father Coughlin on the Right.
Elrod Sun Mar 15 23:36:29 2009 CDT #
Anonymous says:
Wells Fargo & Co. Chairman Richard Kovacevich criticized the U.S. for retroactively adding curbs to the Troubled Asset Relief Program, which he said forced the bank to cut its dividend, and called the administration’s plan for stress-testing banks “asinine.”
http://www.bloomberg.com/apps/news?pid=20601110&sid=ayqseC8JU2.I
I call the stress test a joke but that's just me.
Anonymous Sun Mar 15 23:42:08 2009 CDT #
evelyn woods graduate says:
“We do stress tests all the time on all of our portfolios,” Kovacevich said. “We share those stress tests with our regulators. It is absolutely asinine that somebody would announce we’re going to do stress tests for banks and we’ll give you the answer in 12 weeks.”
Somebody's lying [said in John Stewart falsetto]
Kovacevich appears to have less respect for Geithner than his predecessor...
Parent Post
evelyn woods graduate Sun Mar 15 23:55:04 2009 CDT #
Cliff\'s Diving School says:
Let's talk about what's important. Did did AIG make it to the NCAA 64? I've got more than 150 bil on the line here, so, goddammit, they better be going to the show.
Cliff\'s Diving School Sun Mar 15 23:49:11 2009 CDT #
Cliff\'s Diving School says:
"Saw Geitner on a Fox talk show today for like 5 seconds, and began to feel physically ill. "
Sorry DL, it's digital TV. All sorts of bad mojo
Cliff\'s Diving School Sun Mar 15 23:50:51 2009 CDT #
Tim waiting for 2012 says:
Sounds like WFC is getting stressed before the test even starts
Tim waiting for 2012 Sun Mar 15 23:52:11 2009 CDT #
Cliff\'s Diving School says:
"I call the stress test a joke but that's just me."
Yeah, didn't Wells Fargo have real stress tests back in the day, like guys that looked like John Cleese with rapier wit and mixed motives?
Cliff\'s Diving School Sun Mar 15 23:52:46 2009 CDT #
Jungle Juggs says:
The duct tape and and band aids game has turned into literally pretending a corpse is alive.
Weekend at Bernie's 2009 should be a hard labor camp for ALL of these corporate liars.
I mean seriously watch Kenneth when he speaks. I don't trust that a-hole for ONE second. He MARKETED bank cards to illegals, he bought kuntryfried knowing FULL WELL the fraud that was involved, and plays innocent in this whole fiasco.
Keep lickin' yer teeth Ken.
They might not be around in the near future.
Jungle Juggs Sun Mar 15 23:53:01 2009 CDT #
poic.v20 says:
"GS was one of those, but they were not the worst. The worst are the guys who need US taxpayer bailout money the most: Citi, Merrill and most of all AIG. Please aim your rifles in the right direction. Good night all."
GS and MS were given commercial bank holding status on a Sunday night by the FED and Treasury with no vote, no discussion, no standard waiting period.
They are now issuing FDIC backed bonds backed by the US tax-payer rather than issuing bonds on the open market at a significantly higher cost.
To top it off they are going to pay back the TARP money "forced" on them after they were saved by the US tax-payer by the above actions.
Goldman Sachs would not have lasted the week without commercial bank holding status. You know it. I know it and everyone worth their salt on wall-street knows it.
They are simply screwing the US tax-payer in a less than obvious manner.
poic.v20 Sun Mar 15 23:53:37 2009 CDT #
Guest says:
I see Bernanke moderating between bullshit and optimism, just where the market wants him.
Guest Sun Mar 15 23:59:30 2009 CDT #
Basel Too says:
why are people so hard on BAC for its Countrywide acquisition? Basically, BAC created a merger subsidiary (Red Oak) to shield itself from the liabilities to CFC bond holders, while picking up the servicing operations for itself.
Basel Too Sun Mar 15 23:59:49 2009 CDT #
bgates says:
yeah, what's a couple hundred billion of market cap between friends?
Parent Post
bgates Mon Mar 16 00:16:23 2009 CDT #
Jungle Juggs says:
Countrywide IMO ran a fraudulent business model and profited for years.
Their commercials etc rank right up there with late-night info scams.
The fact BAC bought MER on a possible crash weekend just shows the wheels came off and they were grasping for leverage or more likely, were told they would get tarpy tarps if they played along.
Either way Lewis is a snake.
Parent Post
Jungle Juggs Mon Mar 16 00:20:38 2009 CDT #
Cliff\'s Diving School says:
Jon Stewart, a comedian, is now the most respected financial journalist in Amerikka. Need we any more information?
Cliff\'s Diving School Mon Mar 16 00:04:31 2009 CDT #
Baa says:
BS. Jon Stewart is the first postmodern demagogue.
Parent Post
Baa Mon Mar 16 13:06:47 2009 CDT #
unirealist says:
From AP:
WASHINGTON - America's recession "probably" will end this year if the government succeeds in bolstering the banking system, Federal Reserve Chairman Ben Bernanke said Sunday in a rare television interview.
Never before has the two-letter word "if" been so assigned such a heavy task as it carries there.
unirealist Mon Mar 16 00:08:05 2009 CDT #
cd says:
unirealist,
if seems to be friends with difficult!
cd Mon Mar 16 00:14:30 2009 CDT #
Geoff says:
600k job losses a month and maybe not even peaked, and we're looking for a bottom...good grief, could the reporting of late be any more asinine?
Geoff Mon Mar 16 00:17:13 2009 CDT #
Anonymous says:
"were told they would get tarpy tarps if they played along"
Lewis said that the Treasury encouraged them to buy Merill. Dont worry we got your back and lo and behold in Febuary...
Anonymous Mon Mar 16 00:23:34 2009 CDT #
unirealist says:
cd--
Still, Bernanke stressed — as he did to Congress last month — that the prospects for the recession ending this year and a recovery taking root next year hinge on a difficult task: getting banks to lend more freely again and getting the financial markets to work more normally.
LOL. And then there's this gem:
Bernanke said he believes all the big banks the Fed regulates are solvent. Big banks won't fail under his watch, Bernanke said — though, if necessary, the government should try to "wind it down in a safe way."
Uhhh... and the distinction is???
unirealist Mon Mar 16 00:24:01 2009 CDT #
poic.v20 says:
"why are people so hard on BAC for its Countrywide acquisition? Basically, BAC created a merger subsidiary (Red Oak) to shield itself from the liabilities to CFC bond holders, while picking up the servicing operations for itself."
There was a lot of discussion back during the CFC deal whether Red Oak would hold up in a court of law. I was under the impression that creating a subsidiary for the express purpose of shielding one's self from liabilities from a purchase would not hold up to scrutiny.
poic.v20 Mon Mar 16 00:25:32 2009 CDT #
CRbot says:
The Latest from Mish:
Cream Puff Interview With Bernanke On 60 Minutes
CRbot Mon Mar 16 00:38:29 2009 CDT #
cd says:
unirealist-tonight was all about painting bernanke as small town-main street guy..
maybe he doesnt know that solvents evaporate easily
cd Mon Mar 16 00:41:09 2009 CDT #
EvilHenryPaulson says:
My 'tea leaves' say Monday American markets are going down
and on another note, CR you slap me in the face. The post on AIG counterparty disclosures at 9pm EST where you give out hat tips like candy
in the comments at 6pm I posted not only the link to the original document, but to summarized graph + table
http://img11.imageshack.us/img11/3717/picture6ahi.png
Table Summary of AIG's disclosure of payments to banks
http://img10.imageshack.us/img10/5358/picture7nbr.png
Chart Summary
a slap in the face to me
EvilHenryPaulson Mon Mar 16 00:53:12 2009 CDT #
EHP\'s grandma says:
Come here, you need a hug. But I still must tell you that you read your tea leaves backwards.
EHP\'s grandma Mon Mar 16 01:10:32 2009 CDT #
Alo says:
LOL, Nana. Looks like you might be right on the tea leaves - nothing like a successful scam to get the street's juices flowing.
Yet off in the distance, Rome still burns brightly.
Parent Post
Alo Mon Mar 16 07:24:58 2009 CDT #
Comrade Bear (tj and the bear) says:
Who do these people think they're kidding? "Fixing the banks" doesn't fix the economic engine, it just makes sure it doesn't seize up altogether.
Banking isn't the gasoline, it's the oil. [Sorta fitting, given the slippery characters involved.]
Comrade Bear (tj and the bear) Mon Mar 16 01:13:01 2009 CDT #
dreadlord76 says:
Can Jon Stewart do an interview with Bernanke? Why is anyone reporting anything that guy says, while he's gotten everything wrong so far?
The MSM is now part of the propaganda machine. Reporters can't ask the hard questions without losing their access. We are toast.
dreadlord76 Mon Mar 16 01:13:27 2009 CDT #
Mr. Beach says:
Lead WSJ story: US to Toughen Finance Rules.
Appears to be a followup to the G20 meeting.
Mr. Beach Mon Mar 16 01:20:02 2009 CDT #
whoopee says:
Maybe put toxic assets in Space Shuttle and send to intelligent life in next solar system?
whoopee Mon Mar 16 01:21:13 2009 CDT #
EvilHenryPaulson says:
Downturn hits US earnings
Posted by Gwen Robinson on Mar 16 04:44. Comment.
Top US listed companies suffered their first collective quarterly loss since at least 1935 in the fourth quarter of 2008, according to S&P. Based on Q4 results from 98% of companies in the S&P 500 index, the corporate sector suffered a net loss of $180bn, or $20.70 a share – helped by writedowns from the likes of AIG, whose $61.7bn quarterly loss was the largest in US history. The biggest previous collapse was in the 2001 second quarter, when reported earnings per share fell by 64.2%.
EvilHenryPaulson Mon Mar 16 01:34:38 2009 CDT #
RhodesianGreenbackinAZ says:
EHP, I linked your charts on my facebook page and gave you props!
RhodesianGreenbackinAZ Mon Mar 16 01:35:44 2009 CDT #
RE says:
EHP,
Did you see my German politics response?
RE Mon Mar 16 01:37:56 2009 CDT #
EvilHenryPaulson says:
RhodesianGreenbackinAZ, oh well I'm embarrassed now. A quick and dirty compilation before going to dinner + hockey. thanks anyhow
RE, I read and appreciated your insightful reply. My opinion of Merkel is that she is a President by committee and not a President of a committee. Public opinion favours decisiveness during a time of urgency
EvilHenryPaulson Mon Mar 16 01:43:27 2009 CDT #
calmo says:
Evil, so concise...you wouldn't diss a 2nd opinion on that "favors decisiveness during a time of urgency" if it fell to you alone to determine what is and what is not urgent, would you? HRC would scare me in Merkel's shoes...ok, enjoy your posts...hat tippin tacitly when I'm not typin it.
Parent Post
calmo Mon Mar 16 03:38:36 2009 CDT #
RE says:
My opinion of Merkel is that she is a President by committee and not a President of a committee. Public opinion favours decisiveness during a time of urgency.
It is important to understand that the current government is a left/right grand coalition so it is very dificult to be decisive. It is best understood as a unity government.
I am personally not a fan of her's but her performance has to be viewed in that light. The SPD, the coalition partner, has suffered mightily though in this dual arrangement as Merkel is the outward leader and thus has garnered the limelight especially internationally.
RE Mon Mar 16 01:52:35 2009 CDT #
RE says:
A theme I harped on last year when oil prices dropped severely.
Russia to become permanent OPEC observer
Russia says it is sending a permanent observer to OPEC.
The move signals closer ties between the largest non-OPEC producer of oil and the organization accounting for more than a third of world output.
The plan was announced Sunday by Russian Deputy Premier Igor Sechin at a meeting of the Organization of the Petroleum Exporting Countries.
Still, Russia prizes its independence and is unlikely to become an OPEC member. The meeting of OPEC ministers ending Sunday may cut output or simply issue a call for members to stop overproduction.
RE Mon Mar 16 01:59:24 2009 CDT #
EvilHenryPaulson says:
RE,
Oh I know that, it's just that if Merkel does not get coalition members to buy in, which they won't before the election as they are gaining seats, then she will lose the coalition. The one hope for it is if someone else in her party takes over.
Economy is bad and getting worse, the incumbent is likely to lose the most. Voters may not have the answer, but they don't need one to vote her down.
Either she commits to alienating part of the electorate now, or she gives up all hope -- no chance another politician doesn't try to unseat her, even from inside her own party.
EvilHenryPaulson Mon Mar 16 02:03:55 2009 CDT #
steinly says:
Head of AIGFP:
http://www.badidea.co.uk/2008/11/joseph-cassano-aig-investigation/
steinly Mon Mar 16 02:09:10 2009 CDT #
RE says:
Either she commits to alienating part of the electorate now, or she gives up all hope -- no chance another politician doesn't try to unseat her, even from inside her own party.
I don't think that there is anybody on the horizon with a chance to unseat her within the sister parties at this point. Seehofer, her only potential threat, is having his own issues just keeping Bavaria in the dominant CSU fold.
The CDU/CSU will go into the elections with Merkel for good or bad . At present, I'd describe her chances as excellent to come out with a win together with the FDP. The SPD, despite the worsening economy, has a huge mountain to climb.
And with that, good night.
RE Mon Mar 16 02:11:51 2009 CDT #
EvilHenryPaulson says:
maybe you're right, I certainly have done no due diligence on looking at present composition or polling. Just have the general feeling that Germany is prone for a period of political fracture ahead
Parent Post
EvilHenryPaulson Mon Mar 16 02:18:52 2009 CDT #
Werner says:
EHP, I can assure you that RE sees the German situation correct !
Parent Post
Werner Mon Mar 16 08:01:02 2009 CDT #
CRbot says:
The Latest from Yves:
Bernanke on 60 Minutes
CRbot Mon Mar 16 02:24:24 2009 CDT #
Uncle Billy, Mental Widget says:
Steinly: just watched video. The FP was started by recruits from... wait for it... Drexel. It's going to take 100 years to wash the Drexel stink out. And there's Milken, philanthropist and humanitarian:
http://www.mikemilken.com/
Uncle Billy, Mental Widget Mon Mar 16 02:36:08 2009 CDT #
steinly says:
Apparently First Boston before Drexel.
Poli Sci grad. Sigh.
steinly Mon Mar 16 03:09:16 2009 CDT #
CRbot says:
The Latest from Yves:
Links 3/16/09
CRbot Mon Mar 16 03:12:55 2009 CDT #
Anonymous says:
Side notes on German politics - first, even the most 'conservative' German political party (excluding the 'Rechtsaussen' or very extreme right) would be considered full of socialists with a deep faith in the power of government to be able to provide and maintain the framework which a free society requires, and from which the 'Sozialmarktwirtschaft' (call it 'compassionate capitalism,' for a twist of ironic reality) results.
After all, this is what Germans expect from a government - that it govern.
What is becoming a problem is that the current government seems as more or less incapable of handling the economic crisis as any other national government.
Merkel is not a polarizing figure (she seems to have little personality in general), but a certain dissastisfaction is growing. A dissatisfaction which tends to fairly evenly spread, at this point, though the FDP, by far the most extreme anti-bailout and anti-tax party at this point, is gaining quite handsomely. Along with the Greens, who seem to have again returned to their normal presence in American media - essentially none.
What Americans, and to a lesser extent, English speakers, don't really grasp about German politics is how much hinges around coalitions - basically, no single party commands a majority at this point, neither at the federal nor the state level, and no party expects to command a majority in the future (the Bavarian CSU somewhat exempted - which is generally true of Bavaria compared to the rest of Germany).
Which means that parties are currently jockeying for position to try to achieve power with their more favored partners, as with the CDU/CSU and FDP traditionally.
Merkel's major advantage is the breakdown of the socialists as a single party. This is also the Green's major disadvantage, as a major part of the breakdown involves the 'Linke,' a party which includes a fair amount of the former East German police state ruling class. The recent attempt of the SPD to gain state power (in Hesse) failed essentially on this point, at least publicly (internal party politics also played a large role) - both the Greens and a number of traditional socialists refuse to have anything to do with anyone responsible for the policies of the East German worker's paradise.
Anonymous Mon Mar 16 03:34:37 2009 CDT #
Anonymous says:
Hate this limit -
To continue - the FDP refuses to have anything to do with the Greens, as both parties pretty much draw their strength from the same background - well educated and fairly well off individuals. The CDU also has its problems with the Greens, but mainly on social issues - which is also where the entire north/south split comes into play, between Lutheran and Catholic - in Hamburg, they actually share power, but then, the mayor of Hamburg is a gay man in a city with notably little Catholic influence.
Though too early to make predictions, but I assume the coalition government between CDU/CSU and SPD is the most likely, most timid, and most boring result, with parties such as the FDP, Greens, and Linke unable to win enough votes to overcome the declines in votes among the 'Volksparteien.'
Anonymous Mon Mar 16 03:35:06 2009 CDT #
Comrade Byzantine_Ruins says:
RE,
Thanks for your insights into Germany!
Comrade Byzantine_Ruins Mon Mar 16 04:22:12 2009 CDT #
Comrade Byzantine_Ruins says:
EHP's grandma says:
Today, 2:10:32 AM
Come here, you need a hug. But I still must tell you that you read your tea leaves backwards.
Agreed. AIG counterparty disclosure? TAKE THE MARKET ON THAT.
Note: I think equities markets are a pachinko machine and they will surely take your money. Do not believe that my shouting about them is informed or in any way indicates where you should put money.
Comrade Byzantine_Ruins Mon Mar 16 04:27:53 2009 CDT #
Anonymous says:
'only to flout them during the reign of Merkel’s Social Democratic predecessor, Gerhard Schroeder'
Oops - I missed the Bloomberg dig there - Schroeder maintained his 'stimulus package' in terms of East Germany during that time, which was about as much 'flouting' debt limits as it was paying the bills for a massive amount of work in bringing Eastern Germany up to the level of Western European standards. Basically, the entire EU understood what was happening, had no real problems, and the fact that the Germans were the first to break their own strictures led to a certain ability among other states to be able to consider that debt level as less than holy.
And yet, in the sort of dissonance that is rapidly replacing binary thinking as an American media trait, we read that Merkel is a stumbling block because she isn't flouting the debt limit, like her socialist predecessor.
This inability to actually keep consistent is starting to show through more clearly - the old, tired cliches just aren't having the same old effect - like conservative good, socialist bad.
Parent Post
Anonymous Mon Mar 16 04:45:02 2009 CDT #
Anonymous says:
What is it about women leaders -
'Forget Nicolas Sarkozy. Ignore Gordon Brown. Angela Merkel, taking advantage of Germany’s economic heft, is now the European Union’s dominant figure. And leaders from Warsaw to Washington had best not forget it.
Just as the German chancellor vetoed a bailout for eastern Europe on March 1, she is now leading European opposition to U.S. President Barack Obama’s call for a global pump-priming package. She’ll determine the fate of a 5 billion-euro ($6.4 billion) infrastructure proposal at an EU summit in Brussels later this week.
“It’s Merkel who holds the key to the cashbox, and she doesn’t want to give it up,” says Jean-Dominique Giuliani, chairman of the Robert Schuman Foundation, a research center in Paris.'
http://www.bloomberg.com/apps/news?pid=20601109&sid=aDQ2DHZhyx7A&refer=home
Reading this stuff is so much fun, at least considering how it opposes what so many people think are universal truths concerning banksters, dopes, etc. -
'The remarks were her third rebuff in three days to Obama’s March 11 call for “concerted action around the globe to jump- start the economy,” comments echoed by Lawrence Summers, his top economic adviser, and Treasury Secretary Timothy Geithner.
It is a reversion to type for Germany, which built its postwar society on the principle of monetary stability after the economic havoc of two world wars. Germany authored the limits on budget deficits for countries using the euro currency -- only to flout them during the reign of Merkel’s Social Democratic predecessor, Gerhard Schroeder.
With the world economy set to shrink for the first time since World War II, Merkel has forged a European position not to go beyond tax cuts and emergency spending that the EU says amounts to 3.3 percent of gross domestic product.
Nobel laureate economist Paul Krugman says Merkel is underestimating the scope of the crisis. Germany is a “giant stumbling block” to global efforts to fight the recession, he told Der Stern magazine last week.'
Sounds like Merkel is remaining fairly consistent in her responses to the policies of American presidents she doesn't agree with - she just keeps not agreeing.
Anonymous Mon Mar 16 04:37:57 2009 CDT #
morning man says:
AIG Bailout questions:
Why is the American taxpayer bailing out a global conglomerate originated out of Shanghai?
Why is the American taxpayer bailing out an investment bank (Goldman Sachs) with 40:1 leverage “insured” by AIG when they certainly knew this insurance was fraudulent? Shouldn’t Goldman holdings instead now be the property of the U.S. taxpayer?
Why was Henry Paulson, head of Goldman when all this fraud went down, allowed to bail out his own firm as head of the treasury? It seems quite apparent why he was down on his knees in front of Nancy Pelosi now. When does the conflict of interest investigation begin?
Why is the American taxpayer bailing out French and German banks for these contracts? Why can’t the French and German governments pony up?
morning man Mon Mar 16 05:39:52 2009 CDT #
burnside says:
anon,
I think Merkle and many others cannot have failed to note that the work performed in the former GDR, though apparently sensible and needed, was rife with unintended consequences. Leipzig and Dresden, among many others, got a comprehensive rebuild at a time when the residents were moving to the West in search of work.
I don't believe anyone seriously objects to the restorations. The builders' trades benefitted for a time, and certainly places like Meissen and East Berlin were greatly in need of repair. But the immediate result of all that polishing - many millions of square feet of restored residential flats standing distressingly empty - reflected no great credit on proponents and, incidentally, provided an recent object lesson in the vagaries of stimulus agendas and their sometimes surprising outcomes.
Merkel, I suspect, is not alone in recalling this recent 'rehearsal'.
burnside Mon Mar 16 05:45:56 2009 CDT #
burnside says:
All that was to say Germany has had on-the-job training in addressing a ruined economy. Their sense of what works and what doesn't is not theoretical.
burnside Mon Mar 16 05:56:52 2009 CDT #
thirdeye says:
OT: HR875, S425
As usual, the real news is that which goes unreported. For all you doomsters going off-grid and growing your own food, and others interested in food freedom, these are coming up for vote in the next few days.
http://tinyurl.com/ago7a7
Criminalization of seed banking in the name of food safety - Control food, control the people...
thirdeye Mon Mar 16 06:15:03 2009 CDT #
CRbot says:
The Latest from Ritholz:
AIG: $105 Billion to Counterparties
CRbot Mon Mar 16 06:17:32 2009 CDT #
Alan Greedspawn says:
The reverence anon (aka, rent_to_own) shows for pseudo-conservative Merkel is striking.
As any good apparatchik, she does not have a clear ideological profile, nor can her rise to the top be explained on her intrinsic personal merit. Apparatchiks are opportunists, and mostly products of opportunities. You may well recall she has been catapulted to the top position as Helmut Kohl and the thorougly corrupt leadership of the Christian Democrats were facing indictments for graft. Schäuble, that minion who had been groomed to succeed the unspeakable Kohl, was indicted and condemned for taking €50 k in bribes, and for co-participation in staching undeclared party contributions in accounts abroad. Since the scum raises to the top in the Western Empire, he is now the Homeland Minister, and responsible for degrading further civil liberties and the rule of law in the country.
BTW, you might find the rather credible hypothesis that she was the KGB agent 'ANITA' entertaining.
Is Chancellor Angela Merkel A Former Communist Spy?
by Trowbridge H. Ford
http://cryptome.com/0001/merkel-spy.htm
Alan Greedspawn Mon Mar 16 06:26:06 2009 CDT #
Jay D. says:
..........German qimonda AG can be purchased by Chinese investor.........
http://www.evertiq.com/news/13408
..........a prima facie evidence of robustness of Chinese economy......
..........I think memory and foundry business will lead IT industry out of recession rather quickly than expected.........
Jay D. Mon Mar 16 06:59:05 2009 CDT #
Black Star Ranch says:
"Criminalization of seed banking in the name of food safety - Control food, control the people..."
WAKE UP PEOPLE.
"include, with respect to growing, harvesting, sorting, and storage operations, minimum standards related to fertilizer use, nutrients, hygiene, packaging, temperature controls, animal encroachment, and water"
"..facility owned or operated by a person located in any State that processes food or a facility that holds, stores, or transports food or food ingredients."
in September, 1995, the USDA's Food Safety & Inspection Service presented a 600-page document "Farm-To-Table" intended to control of every step in the food chain from production to home preparation. http://www.haccpalliance.org/sub/news/AAMPReport.pdf
"Today a state Ag inspector and two county officials show up and scare the bee-jesus out of me. First they accuse me of selling products and milk, then explain that even “giving milk products away” is illegal in California. Now everything is pasteurized, but it is illegal to share milk products in any form! They explained it was even ILLEGAL to give it to my own children if they did not live under my roof! I can’t even take a lasagna dish to my grown sons home without risk of being fined, arrested and or jailed! This is OUTRAGEOUS!!!!....."
This legislature's control over your life is as close as the food you can put (or can't put) into your mouth.
Black Star Ranch Mon Mar 16 07:31:16 2009 CDT #
Guest says:
Green cheese factory managers out in force today. People were impressed with the big dog's common beginnings and intellectual capacity.
Guest Mon Mar 16 07:32:27 2009 CDT #
joe shmoe says:
WFC, from Bloomberg:
http://www.bloomberg.com/apps/news?pid=20601110&sid=ayqseC8JU2.I
“Is this America -- when you do what your government asks you to do and then retroactively you also have additional conditions?” Kovacevich said. “If we were not forced to take the TARP money, we would have been able to raise private capital at that time” and not needed to cut the dividend to preserve cash, he said.
Someone is lying, indeed. "Is this America"? Need I say more?
WFC could have raised private capital in October and November? They used to want their billions of bailout money, but now they do not? And is it merely a coincidence that this howl of protest comes at the same as the latest rounds of AIG fiasco? Oh, I think not dear reader. I think not.
But just because WFC is lying does not mean that the stress tests are not assinine, as WFC says. Nor does it mean that anyone else is telling the truth.
Like I said over the weekend when the AIG stories developed, I think the poker game is drawing to a close and bluffs are being called. We're seeing some of the cards: rich cards in the hands of Goldman Sachs and friends, and a very poorly played hand by the Obama Administration.
joe shmoe Mon Mar 16 07:37:15 2009 CDT #
Counterpointer says:
EHP - some of us don't get hat tips no matter what we post.
Who cares.
You're good.
C
Counterpointer Mon Mar 16 07:38:26 2009 CDT #
energyecon says:
New York Manufacturing Index Slumped to Record Low in March
By Timothy R. Homan
March 16 (Bloomberg) -- Manufacturing in New York contracted in March at the fastest pace on record as orders, sales and inventories plunged.
The Federal Reserve Bank of New York’s general economic index dropped to minus 38.2, the lowest level since data began in 2001, from minus 34.7 in February, the bank said today. Readings below zero for the Empire State index signal manufacturing activity is shrinking.
The collapse in global trade, alongside a U.S. economy in its second year of recession, is causing manufacturers to pare back production as demand plummets. The subsequent payroll cuts have prompted the Obama administration to pledge to save or create 3.5 million jobs through tax cuts and more spending.
“The demand for manufactured products -- both domestically and globally -- has evaporated,” Steven Wood, president of Insight Economics LLC in Danville, California, said before the report. “This has forced factories to substantially reduce production and employment to keep inventories from ballooning.”
Economists forecast the Empire State index would climb to minus 30.8, according to the median of 45 estimates in a Bloomberg News survey. Projections ranged from minus 25 to minus 40.
The measure of new orders decreased to minus 44.8 and a gauge of shipments fell to minus 26.7, the lowest levels on record. The index of inventories decreased to minus 27, the weakest since August 2001, from minus 8.1.
http://www.bloomberg.com/apps/news?pid=20601087&sid=auC5XLR6GN.o&refer=home
energyecon Mon Mar 16 07:42:20 2009 CDT #
Anonymous says:
'reverence anon (aka, rent_to_own) shows for pseudo-conservative Merkel is striking'
Kohl scum? Do tell. Schäuble's concern for civil liberties may be traditionally southern German, but his concern that German schools not be turned into 'prisons' (the sort of facilities found throughout America) because it would destroy the very foundation of a democratic society seems very sincere, and he is the man responsible for school security after a mass murder in the state he comes from, not an opposition politician looking to score cheap points.
My 'reverence' for the PhD Hausfrau is based pretty squarely on the fact that she seems to be the only leader on the world stage who consistently resists the drumbeat call of the English speaking mainstream media - and she is in the position to reject what others call for her to do. Though she is not alone or unique in the German political scene in those terms, she is the one holding the checkbook closed, so to speak.
As for the idea of being a KGB 'asset' - sure, why not? Are you familiar with all of the programs funded by the American government in Germany since 1949 or so? Divided Germany was an ideological battleground between East and West, and it isn't as if the West German side was simply left to its own devices while the East German side was forced to endure communist propaganda.
But as for Merkel being a former KGB spy - any proof of that, and she would be looking for a new job. Just like a certain socialist named Brandt. Germany is as hypocritical and rotten as any western society, but some memories stretch back a bit longer than you might think - for example, the Protestant Merkel criticizing the German pope has already been enough for shrill cries from the Catholic conservative south that she is just a godless heretic lacking all respect for the proper role of a German politician, which is to kiss the ring with the proper degree of servility.
Like Bush was in his way, Merkel is a cipher - both seem to be in charge, but somehow, it is simply not possible to imagine that fact being true. And yet no evidence ever arises to allow the issue to be settled conclusively.
Oh - I gave up on John Young when he was so outraged that someone did the same with his own building, address, etc. as his site does to other persons and organizations.
Anonymous Mon Mar 16 07:48:54 2009 CDT #
Anonymous says:
I'm giving up - this is just a chance to trade soundbites, which is too American for my tastes.
And as far as it goes in a German context (I'm American, after all), the Greens are the only party which I feel worthy of support, respect, or inspiration, recognizing however to what degree actual political power has diminished them, and the absurdities that individual Greens are capable of. But trying to explain the Greens to an American audience is utterly beyond my skills - even if the Greens capture roughly the same share of votes as the 'libertarian' (which is always worth a laugh to read) FDP, in American terms, the Greens are simply not understandable. For example, hard as this might be to imagine to freedom loving and democracy spreading Americans, the Greens utterly reject the idea of bombing for peace. The Greens also reject the idea of infinite growth on a finite planet. Which makes them somehow unrealistic.
Reverence for Merkel? Right. But if it makes you happier, a lot of Germans are very unhappy with Merkel right now - seems like most Germans think Merkel is not prudent enough in spending money. So maybe it isn't Merkel keeping Germany from the bailout bandwagon, but Merkel's fear of German voters? Probably another idea as alien as the Green Party to Americans.
Anonymous Mon Mar 16 07:49:42 2009 CDT #
Alan Greedspawn says:
rent_to_own,
I enjoy reading your take on Germany as a disillusioned American, but I cannot share your enthusiasm for the rabble with checkered pasts that by and large rules Germany at the Federal level.
Of course there are exceptions like Constanze Paffrath, as shown in the video linked below. She has demonstrated just how thieves Helmut Kohl, Schäuble & Co lied to the German people during the unification process to facilitate violating property rights guaranteed in the Basic Law, and, in the process, start a major programme of state indebtedness in favour of their backers in the banking industry.
The mendacity and theft of the communists was repeated and expanded by Kohl and his goons.
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=cNkKYLmEi0A&feature=related
Additionally, you may recall the decades of state-sponsored false-flag operations in West Germany under the aegis of 'Gladio'. To be fair to Kohl, Helmut Schmidt also played in the red terror game.
Parent Post
Alan Greedspawn Mon Mar 16 08:24:07 2009 CDT #
Broward Horne says:
"“The demand for manufactured products -- both domestically and globally -- has evaporated,”"
So much for the Smoot Hawley Super Scare baloney.
Nice to see it finally debunked, though.
Broward Horne Mon Mar 16 07:51:20 2009 CDT #
Jay D. says:
............here is another news that might boil your blood..........
............IT giants lobby for Obama bucks..........................
http://www.eetimes.com/news/latest/showArticle.jhtml;jsessionid=OMJKAESQDH1WQQSNDLSCKHA?articleID=215900244
...........you never know what will come out each day....even the nerds ....gosh!................
Jay D. Mon Mar 16 07:51:22 2009 CDT #
Black Star Ranch says:
....and then we have the Angela Merkel wannabe, "Watch out, Angela", FDIC Chairman Sheila Bair.
Black Star Ranch Mon Mar 16 07:55:22 2009 CDT #
CRbot says:
The Latest from Ritholz:
Humpty Dumpty
CRbot Mon Mar 16 08:04:35 2009 CDT #
zzz says:
If you can get a bailout, don't you deserve a bonus?
zzz Mon Mar 16 08:05:16 2009 CDT #
Morocco Bama says:
God, there is so much much pent up demand you can just feel it's about to burst, can't you?
Morocco Bama Mon Mar 16 08:10:09 2009 CDT #
Basel Too says:
I was under the impression that creating a subsidiary for the express purpose of shielding one's self from liabilities from a purchase would not hold up to scrutiny.
The law is fraudulent conveyance, and it depends on whether BAC paid reasonable equivalent value for CFC's assets. For example, if BAC had given stock worth $160B at the time of the merger (which subsequently cratered), then BAC would probably survive SJ.
Basel Too Mon Mar 16 08:10:29 2009 CDT #
Lawyerliz says:
Off to Miami, The futures are mean and green.
Oh, dear, did I miss the bottom? /snark.
Lawyerliz Mon Mar 16 08:16:01 2009 CDT #
CRbot says:
The Latest from Jesse:
AIG: A Scandal of Epic Proportion
CRbot Mon Mar 16 08:17:17 2009 CDT #
Counterpointer says:
Clearly the bottom is in. Asian equities are kermit except some minor league player called Korea, AUD and NZD are bouncing against the dollar and everyone agrees the Chinese middle class will save us. Wahay!
Hang on... there's something not right with this picture. I'll get back to you.
C
Counterpointer Mon Mar 16 08:19:12 2009 CDT #
zzz says:
Anyone else stuck on comment page one while trying to post?
zzz Mon Mar 16 08:20:01 2009 CDT #
CRbot says:
New Thread: Empire State Manufacturing Survey: "conditions deteriorated significantly"
http://www.calculatedriskblog.com/2009/03/empire-state-manufacturing-survey.html ( 0 comments ...You could be FIRST! )
I also post comments to an irc channel as they appear on haloscan. Click for a web irc interface: http://realize.org/cr (Or join the irc server directly: irc.realize.org:9996 #calculatedrisk)
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First, to our sagacious, wise, and knowing benevolent benefactor and bestower of revealing financial charts adorned with red and blue lines:
Please, for the love of your immortal God of mortals, can we keep the comment and layout changes to a minimum? I'm tired of whipping the code janitor, and may have to escalate to electroshock. If that's not possible, could you possibly give CRbot a 'heads up'?
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CRbot Mon Mar 16 08:20:47 2009 CDT #
JohnRDC says:
"Something is really wrong with our system when McCain and BHO were the top vote getters in the last election..."
That about sums it up. Read McDougall's"Throes of Democracy" to learn more about us.
JohnRDC Mon Mar 16 08:26:38 2009 CDT #
Comrade Rally Monkey says:
Ben B "no banks will go BK"
Citi to $4...booooyahahahahahaha
Comrade Rally Monkey Mon Mar 16 08:27:47 2009 CDT #
Counterpointer says:
Apparently the sh!tpile is now to be referred to as "legacy assets".... from Kaboomberger:
http://www.bloomberg.com/apps/news?pid=20602058&sid=ajwg2F1rlQvo&refer=movers_by_index
C
Counterpointer Mon Mar 16 08:36:28 2009 CDT #
Counterpointer says:
Wow, VIXy is vertical:
http://www.bloomberg.com/apps/cbuilder?ticker1=VIX%3AIND
C
Counterpointer Mon Mar 16 08:38:55 2009 CDT #
solohedger says:
WHEN did GS buy those CDS from AIG? And who was the underlying debtor entity?
Would anyone be surprised to learn that these were CDS speculating on the failure of Lehman Bros., written on September 12?
solohedger Mon Mar 16 09:10:41 2009 CDT #
Hal says:
Bernanke's appearance will come back to haunt him. His prediction about the end of the recession will be wrong and he'll get it in the face for that. Further, all the questions to him were softball questions. He went on, clearly, to "improve" his image and tell people he "cares" (he might or might not) about their misery. But what for? He isn't elected to anything. He would have done better to stay in his office and get something important done rather than go out on limbs to improve his "image." Silly man.
Hal Mon Mar 16 11:16:07 2009 CDT #
dUCKdUCKgOOSE says:
I see that Bernake is spinning more propaganda for the government-media complex. Anyone who believes a word that this guys says is insane. Two weeks ago, Obama said that the US would crumble without this money. Now he's saying that it's not really so bad. PROPAGANDA.
dUCKdUCKgOOSE Mon Mar 16 13:52:21 2009 CDT #
END