Comments for More on Existing Home Sales
CRbot says:
This comment thread has been HALO-IZED by CRbot.
http://realize.org/cr/halokit.php?halourl=http://www.haloscan.com/comments/calculatedrisk/7919752341847639526
CRbot Mon Mar 23 09:51:02 2009 CDT #
adornosghost says:
More TARP News: Bailed Out JPMorgan Spending $120 Million For Two Gulfstream 650 Planes, $18 Million For A Lavish Hangar Renovation… Building "The Premiere Corporate Aircraft Hangar On The Eastern Seaboard"… JPMorgan CEO: "When I Hear The Constant Vilification Of Corporate America I Personally Don't Understand It”
adornosghost Mon Mar 23 09:51:28 2009 CDT #
nades says:
adornosghost - please tell me that your post is a joke... please...
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nades Mon Mar 23 10:00:36 2009 CDT #
Yalt says:
adornosghost - please tell me that your post is a joke... please...
Just a bit of satire, from that well-known comedy website abcnews.com:
http://abcnews.go.com/Blotter/story?id=7146474&page=1
A public hearing will be held by Westchester County officials tonight regarding JPMorgan's request for new hangar space. etc.
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Yalt Mon Mar 23 10:06:05 2009 CDT #
Cooking ramen in my percolator says:
The price stickiness has come loose! People are more desperate to unload their money pit. These are all positive, really...
Cooking ramen in my percolator Mon Mar 23 09:54:53 2009 CDT #
turnthatfrownupsidedown says:
Don't deny the Bull. BOOYAH!
turnthatfrownupsidedown Mon Mar 23 09:55:39 2009 CDT #
Anonymous says:
The key to watch for housing recovery will be an organic functioning economy that produces jobs with wages levels that will provide the necessary level to sustain home ownership. Anything else will be temporary flashing signals leading to a variety of financial dead ends.
Anonymous Mon Mar 23 09:57:40 2009 CDT #
Comrade Kristina says:
adornosghost, stop picking on JPM, they are stimulating the economy...Wasn't it the Morgan "mafia" that dreamed up default swaps? BWAHAHAHA
Comrade Kristina Mon Mar 23 09:58:38 2009 CDT #
Bubblisimo Gerkinov says:
@ adornosghost
If you are insulated from reality on Wall Street, and the govt. begs you to take money to cover your incompetency, you can't possibly be anything but deluded.
Bubblisimo Gerkinov Mon Mar 23 09:58:41 2009 CDT #
Art Eclectic says:
I would guess that it is going to take a LONG time before the gap between existing and new home sales closes. Most of the new inventory is still being built far away from the job centers in most areas - this places that inventory at a significant disadvantage next to existing homes that are closer to jobs and require a shorter commute.
Art Eclectic Mon Mar 23 10:00:05 2009 CDT #
kharris says:
There have been reports (here, among other places) of rising block sales. Any chance that is part of what caused the lift in February? Mean and median prices both rose in February from January, but those series aren't seasonally adjusted (I'm pretty sure, anyhow) and the y/y decline in February was the 2nd largest on record (I'm pretty sure, anyhow). Can we get any light shed on the block sale thingie based on today's data?
kharris Mon Mar 23 10:00:09 2009 CDT #
traderwalt says:
I posted a comment on CR last week about and auction in the South Loop of Chicago where 43 new units were sold to mostly first time buyers. Originally only 40 units were scheduled to be sold, but supposedly the demand was so good, they sold a couple more. I understand that two more auctions (of about 40 units each) are planned in the same building for the rest of the unsold inventory. I'll post more when I hear more.
At least three more high rise buildings within a quarter mile radius of the auction site are nearing completion, so they better hurry...
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traderwalt Mon Mar 23 11:24:45 2009 CDT #
Max says:
Sacramento median now at Y2K levels. I guess "recovery" means different things to different people. If you're an owner, there is no recovery. If you're an agent/broker/fee collector, then it's time to party.
Max Mon Mar 23 10:03:43 2009 CDT #
reptillian says:
The "distression" could be due to three things:
1) buyers prefer the better construction of existing homes
2) new homes haven't gone REO (haha)
3) builders haven't reduced their prices
reptillian Mon Mar 23 10:04:12 2009 CDT #
Cinco-X says:
Tell me about it. I'm trying to build a new home, and some of the subs think it's still 2005. Folks; no more $100/hr carpenter jobs!
Parent Post
Cinco-X Mon Mar 23 10:32:52 2009 CDT #
homedad43 says:
Max:
Yeah! Party like it's 1999!
homedad43 Mon Mar 23 10:06:00 2009 CDT #
ATM card and $19 in the bank says:
Max,
Prices in Arden Park appear to be stuck at 2006 levels. Are you seeing other neighborhoods in Sac that also haven't budged much on offering price?
ATM card and $19 in the bank Mon Mar 23 10:06:30 2009 CDT #
Tim waiting for 2012 says:
Max
Exactly the people who get screwed are the buy and hold crowd while speculators and delinquents made out like... well didn't lose... much
Tim waiting for 2012 Mon Mar 23 10:08:25 2009 CDT #
Lucifer says:
Geithner is not going to stop at one trillion.
Lucifer Mon Mar 23 10:09:00 2009 CDT #
homedad43 says:
ATM card from two threads ago:
Okay, now I get it.
Thanks
homedad43 Mon Mar 23 10:10:40 2009 CDT #
Anonymous says:
Go long, young man. Go long!
Anonymous Mon Mar 23 10:10:47 2009 CDT #
Michael says:
Everything our government is doing in supplying money to Wall Street is all about preserving the class structure of the United States as it is today. Preserving the divide between the haves and the have nots all while keeping the common folk on the hamster wheel forever. Rich folks loathe to give up their illegal alien servant class, God forbid they have to clean their own house or cut their own grass.
The American Dream is nothing more than the American Constitution and the prosperity it would provide each and everyone of us should its principals be enforced. Unfortunately the dream has been stripped away from us be unscrupulous people whose only goal is to usurp as much for themselves as they can get away with. Now our government is engaging in wholesale rape of the common American folk on an unprecedented scale. What can we do to make our government stop raping us?
Michael Mon Mar 23 10:11:51 2009 CDT #
Sick and Retired says:
The revolution will come . . . eventually.
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Sick and Retired Mon Mar 23 10:56:56 2009 CDT #
Blackhalo says:
"About 45 percent of sales nationwide are foreclosures"
Wow. Too bad for homeowners these "distressed" sales do not count in the tally for property tax assessment.
Blackhalo Mon Mar 23 10:12:18 2009 CDT #
M says:
Great Article in the Financial Times from Ron Paul
http://www.ft.com/cms/s/0/ee3e07f0-16b2-11de-9a72-0000779fd2ac.html?nclick_check=1
M Mon Mar 23 10:13:21 2009 CDT #
alambka says:
M says:
Today, 8:13:21 AM
“Great Article in the Financial Times from Ron Paul
http://www.ft.com/cms/s/0/ee3e07f0-16b2-11de-9a72-0000779fd2ac.html?nclick_check=1
Not so kooky now, is he.
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alambka Mon Mar 23 10:35:49 2009 CDT #
Blackhalo says:
Nope, still kooky. Valuable as a thorn in the side of TPTB, but his gold standard rantings are unrealistic. Abolishment of the Fed would upset too many ships to be believable.
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Blackhalo Mon Mar 23 10:41:14 2009 CDT #
alambka says:
Blackhalo says:
Today, 8:41:14 AM
“Nope, still kooky. Valuable as a thorn in the side of TPTB, but his gold standard rantings are unrealistic. Abolishment of the Fed would upset too many ships to be believable.
I think the fed will fail, unfortunately it will be after the failure of the dollar and our economy. As far as gold, the more this clown show goes on the better I feel about having some. A gold, oil, or mixed commodities standard is better than the no standard we have now.
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alambka Mon Mar 23 11:03:35 2009 CDT #
dryfly says:
Not so kooky now, is he.
He is plenty kooky... but in kooky times kooky might be right. I don't often agree with him but I listen to what he is saying - same with his mirror image on the left... Dennis Kucinich. Equally kooky & sometimes right.
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dryfly Mon Mar 23 10:41:16 2009 CDT #
alambka says:
dryfly says:
Today, 8:41:16 AM
“Not so kooky now, is he.
He is plenty kooky... but in kooky times kooky might be right. I don't often agree with him but I listen to what he is saying - same with his mirror image on the left... Dennis Kucinich. Equally kooky & sometimes right.
I will take kooky over the stupid, shortsighted, treasonous, kleptocracy we have been getting.
Parent Post
alambka Mon Mar 23 11:31:33 2009 CDT #
AnonyMiss says:
CBR, I stand corrected! : )
Here's more fun AIG news, the Fed is underwriting insursance now!
http://online.wsj.com/article/SB123776549185209083.html
The federal bailout of insurance giant American International Group Inc., designed to help stabilize financial markets, is roiling another corner of the corporate world.
AIG's competitors claim the insurer's federal lifeline is unfairly tilting the commercial-insurance playing field. And they're pressing federal officials to crack down.
In a meeting March 4 at the St. Regis Hotel in Washington, some of AIG's biggest competitors complained directly to Federal Reserve Chairman Ben Bernanke, AIG's top government overseer. They urged him to prevent AIG from using the government rescue to win an advantage, particularly by cutting prices. Mr. Bernanke said he'd look into the complaints, according to people familiar with the meeting.
In the six months since the government stepped in, AIG at times has slashed insurance prices -- by more than 30% in some cases -- to fend off rivals and to keep or win contracts, according to public documents, insurance buyers, executives and others in the industry.
AnonyMiss Mon Mar 23 10:15:01 2009 CDT #
cd says:
atm...I was in sac on saturday...you need to look around...50% discount on everything I saw with no jobs around...
look for 1996 pricing there before you invest....
cd Mon Mar 23 10:16:08 2009 CDT #
Max says:
Prices in Arden Park appear to be stuck at 2006 levels. Are you seeing other neighborhoods in Sac that also haven't budged much on offering price?
We have a bifurcated market in Sac. The "higher-end" areas have zero turnover, while the the ghettos and the newer developments are falling like rocks.
Some of these areas were gentrified years ago, and now they're more geriatricified (to coin a phrase). You'll have to pry their houses from their cold, dead fingers. Some friends of mine moved to Land Park, only to have their 85-year-old neighbor complain about their new landscaping efforts. "Those shrubs have been OK for 50 years; why tear them out?" :)
Max Mon Mar 23 10:18:27 2009 CDT #
CJ says:
Where are sales currently as a percentage of total owner-occupied units? Has that metric reverted to mean, or is housing churn still higher than it has been historically?
CJ Mon Mar 23 10:20:10 2009 CDT #
Comrade Janosik says:
Housing trends (read price to income levels, average persons wage, every increasing asset prices, ... you get the picture) were and so far remain unsustainable. I think it's too early to say what a bottom will look like.
Saying that we wait until we make it back to those trends might not be a little misguided. The process seems broken. I think most new home sales still take place in an inflated price scenario...and distressed properties are just getting sold and resold at prices that keep going lower.
Until we solve the wage problem and the debt saturation problem...the beat will go on and on.
Comrade Janosik Mon Mar 23 10:21:33 2009 CDT #
Comrade Janosik says:
^ever increasing^
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Comrade Janosik Mon Mar 23 10:22:04 2009 CDT #
mp says:
What a bunch of sick sons of bitches. This is crony capitalism at its finest.
Joe and Jane Sixpack are going to be mightily pissed when they figure out what's going on.
Barack, you blew it.
mp Mon Mar 23 10:21:58 2009 CDT #
Rob Dawg says:
NAR reported MLS listings are only rough substitutes for true inventory. Additionally current sales rates are so low it is a certainty that shadow inventory is continuing to build.
Rob Dawg Mon Mar 23 10:22:14 2009 CDT #
M says:
I will never buy insurance from AIG. I hope others will do the same on principle.
"“CBR, I stand corrected! : )
Here's more fun AIG news, the Fed is underwriting insursance now!
http://online.wsj.com/article/SB123776549185209083.html
The federal bailout of insurance giant American International Group Inc., designed to help stabilize financial markets, is roiling another corner of the corporate world.
AIG's competitors claim the insurer's federal lifeline is unfairly tilting the commercial-insurance playing field. And they're pressing federal officials to crack down.
In a meeting March 4 at the St. Regis Hotel in Washington, some of AIG's biggest competitors complained directly to Federal Reserve Chairman Ben Bernanke, AIG's top government overseer. They urged him to prevent AIG from using the government rescue to win an advantage, particularly by cutting prices. Mr. Bernanke said he'd look into the complaints, according to people familiar with the meeting.
In the six months since the government stepped in, AIG at times has slashed insurance prices -- by more than 30% in some cases -- to fend off rivals and to keep or win contracts, according to public documents, insurance buyers, executives and others in the industry. "
M Mon Mar 23 10:24:03 2009 CDT #
Anon says:
Where does the inventory data come from? I should probably know this, but would appreciate if someone could point me in the right direction. Many thanks.
Anon Mon Mar 23 10:24:05 2009 CDT #
dryfly says:
I think the keys to watch for the housing market are declining inventory levels, a bottom in new home sales, and the gap between new and existing home sales closing. - CR
Care to take a stab on how close we are to this?
My guess is 'the gap close' will be the last of them to happen... there is a lot of 'distress' yet to work off - then there will be the 'flipped distressed property' resales or 'second wave'. [I know of one of those myself - bought REO for $50K, repaired & reselling for ~$100K... previous comps in the area ~$150-200K. He'd ask for more but there are a lot of second wave REOs he's competing with in the $100K range and will make a nice profit even if sold at $85K... meanwhile banks keep releasing more trashed 'first wave' REOs which will also be bought cheap, repaired & rented or flipped]. It is going to be a very long summer for people wishing to sell their homes... followed by an even longer fall, winter & NEXT spring.
dryfly Mon Mar 23 10:26:07 2009 CDT #
Cinco-X says:
Dryfly
It'll probably be an even longer fall, winter & NEXT spring for builders trying to sell new homes;-)
Parent Post
Cinco-X Mon Mar 23 10:39:37 2009 CDT #
reptillian says:
Economists Doubt Geithner's Plan
reptillian Mon Mar 23 10:26:59 2009 CDT #
Max says:
Exactly the people who get screwed are the buy and hold crowd while speculators and delinquents made out like... well didn't lose... much
My current neighbor is a case in point. Family of 5, two teens, bought in 2005, paid $300K for a 1500 SQFT place. 20% down, PITI around $1600/month. Recent comp: $150K for their exact house. We're renting a 2400 SQFT place nearby for $1500/month. Landlord bought with a 7 year pay option, 20% down, for $360K in 2005. ITI (no "P"), $1600/month.
The neighbor owns his own successful business, so he'll keep paying forever. Screwed, blued, and tattooed. He's 10 times more pissed about the bailouts than I am, and I'm pretty pissed.
Max Mon Mar 23 10:28:11 2009 CDT #
Anonymous says:
The market mirrors Japan even this dead cat bounce in sales due to REO's has a Japan like echo. Might as well call it a bear market rally in RE that takes out all the players sooner or later. The government cannot support a 12 trillion dollar debt rollover with borrowed money so those on the sidelines continue watching the thunderdome action and look for 80% peak to trough declines before making any bets.
Anonymous Mon Mar 23 10:28:45 2009 CDT #
cd says:
does someone have insight maybe ffdic regarding how the fdic can back anything more than deposits especially as partner with hedge funds?
While I was in Sacramento saturday, visited a friend who has MS, she opened up about market losses and it's killing me as they are on fixed income, husband has to take care of her bcse she's late stage with no movement..She started crying about how the 500K they lost was really their income plus they shut 1 of their 3 credit cards down bcse of non-use and how their fico was lowered etc....This fuckers are truly evil..the only way evil wins is when good men/woman do nothing
I'm pissed...they have no idea how much either
cd Mon Mar 23 10:28:57 2009 CDT #
Michael says:
cd,
I have an idea of how pissed you are, so am I. I understand completely what they are doing and what it means to us. They need to be stopped at all costs.
Parent Post
Michael Mon Mar 23 10:39:12 2009 CDT #
Ella says:
Ok, so if the credit markets are frozen, then who financed the 4,700,000 existing sales that closed in February and the 4,490,000 that closed in January?
If the big corps have so much money for airplanes, office remodels, nanimg rights, parties, etc, then why do they need a taxpayer bailout?
Shouldn't the big corps use all of their money for their own bailouts?
Where is the mortgage pig?
Ella Mon Mar 23 10:29:30 2009 CDT #
ATM card and $19 in the bank says:
"Barack, you blew it."
His appearance on Leno is only a small part of why I now call him Special Obama.
ATM card and $19 in the bank Mon Mar 23 10:29:47 2009 CDT #
Basel Too says:
then who financed the 4,700,000 existing sales that closed in February and the 4,490,000 that closed in January?
in some markets, half the mortgages now are FHA. :(
Basel Too Mon Mar 23 10:31:54 2009 CDT #
alambka says:
We just need more Hopium
http://www.chicagotribune.com/news/columnists/chi-kass-bd-22-mar22,0,5436164.column
alambka Mon Mar 23 10:32:04 2009 CDT #
Doug Watts says:
Excellent overview and graphs, CR. Thanks.
Doug Watts Mon Mar 23 10:34:05 2009 CDT #
dryfly says:
in some markets, half the mortgages now are FHA
Liz has been saying that ALL her closings have been FHA.
dryfly Mon Mar 23 10:37:22 2009 CDT #
Doug Watts says:
"Until we solve the wage problem and the debt saturation problem...the beat will go on and on."
---
The debt saturation problem is greatly due to the wage problem. Since 2000 many people compensated for wage stagnation by floating more personal debt, ie. giving themselves "raises."
Doug Watts Mon Mar 23 10:37:55 2009 CDT #
z says:
Don't turn this site into a Ron Paul troll site. You've ruined too many internet sites already.
z Mon Mar 23 10:38:06 2009 CDT #
Comrade Janosik says:
"Barack, you blew it."
The harsh reality is that the citizens of this country blew it...pointing fingers at the man on the teevee is easy.
When you got a lot of Dopes chumming the water...the feeding frenzy is an inevitability.
Comrade Janosik Mon Mar 23 10:38:40 2009 CDT #
Anonymous says:
Max says:Today, 08:03:43
Sacramento median now at Y2K levels. I guess "recovery" means different things to different people. If you're an owner, there is no recovery. If you're an agent/broker/fee collector, then it's time to party.
Median Sac income is 44K. a little back of the envelope math: using a front end of 28% on monthly income of $3,650, making a small car payments etc looks like the median home price should be around 121K. Oh well if the job market doesn't fall further then this is your next level of market support.
Anonymous Mon Mar 23 10:40:18 2009 CDT #
Michael says:
Please sign the petition if you have not already.
Ron Paul's bill to audit the Federal Reserve. The federal Reserve Transparency Act, bill H.R. 1207, has 39 cosponsors and growing.
http://www.campaignforliberty.com/blog.php?view=13149
Please complete this petition urging your Congressman to cosponsor and a seek roll-call vote on Ron Paul’s Audit the Fed Bill -- the first step toward ENDING THE FEDERAL RESERVE once and for all!
Link to Petition;
http://www.campaignforliberty.com/campaigns/auditthefed.php?projid=16
Michael Mon Mar 23 10:42:24 2009 CDT #
z says:
Please stop the Ron Paul troll. Jamming every internet comment thread and spamming every internet poll was not funny last year, it's not funny this year. Please stop it.
Parent Post
z Mon Mar 23 10:48:12 2009 CDT #
An Abiding Dude says:
The housing wastelands of the Twin Cites : http://www.startribune.com/projects/41599252.html?/?elr=KArksLckD8EQDUoaEyqyP4O:DW3ckUiD3aPc:_Yyc:aUycaEacyU)
Coming soon (if not already there) to a metro area near you.
An Abiding Dude Mon Mar 23 10:42:31 2009 CDT #
Guest says:
Lead blog entry here:
http://effectivedemand.blogspot.com/
shows how many of the loans in Ventura county are FHA. It literally made me sick to my stomach to see this. Then again, maybe it was just too much coffee with no food.
Guest Mon Mar 23 10:43:13 2009 CDT #
Anonymous says:
Basel Too says:Today, 08:31:54
then who financed the 4,700,000 existing sales that closed in February and the 4,490,000 that closed in January?
in some markets, half the mortgages now are FHA.
A key number! As the number of FHA loans increase conventional buyers leave the market. They actually are willing to put skin in the game but not bidding against sub prime buyers using government money to jack up prices.
Anonymous Mon Mar 23 10:43:38 2009 CDT #
AnonyMiss says:
cd says:
Today, 8:28:57 AM
---
I am so sorry about your friends situation, just reading your words made my stomach twist. You have my sympathy, for what that's worth.
AnonyMiss Mon Mar 23 10:44:44 2009 CDT #
Dead_Monkey_Bounce says:
Michael, please stop spamming. We've all seen and ignored your ridiculous petition.
Dead_Monkey_Bounce Mon Mar 23 10:46:09 2009 CDT #
Michael says:
You got a better solution?
Parent Post
Michael Mon Mar 23 11:07:33 2009 CDT #
Tom Stone says:
The comment Max made about a bifurcated market is certainly true of western sonoma county.I attribute this to several factors,longer fixed terms on the hybrid loans (5/1,7/1 and 10/1 ARMS rather than 2/28 ARMS), more resources,difficulty in obtaining Jumbo loans and a belief that "it is different here because of the...".The damage to investment portfolios will have an effect and i see signs that reality is beginning to intrude.There is a marked disparity in the asking price among the midrange properties of similar quality and it is widening.The market feels "wiggly" which indicates a correction is nigh to me.When i study complex systems closely for long enough,I can "feel" a change and I am sensing one now.I have a mechanic friend who can do the same with cars and we have had some interesting conversations about it.
Tom Stone Mon Mar 23 10:46:21 2009 CDT #
PAFriedl says:
I'm curious - with the nationwide moratorium on foreclosures ending next month, what will the indicators show us when the flood gates open and we see a huge wave of fresh foreclosures/delinquencies hit the market? Comments? Opinions?
PAFriedl Mon Mar 23 10:46:43 2009 CDT #
Rufus the Doofus says:
Great time to change the way the indicators are calculated.
Parent Post
Rufus the Doofus Mon Mar 23 11:45:41 2009 CDT #
dryfly says:
The housing wastelands of the Twin Cites : http://www.startribune.com/projects/41599252.html?/?elr=KArksLckD8EQDUoaEyqyP4O:DW3ckUiD3aPc:_Yyc:aUycaEacyU)
Coming soon (if not already there) to a metro area near you.
I know ALL those areas well - Hugo & Wyoming (NE of Twin Cities) and Cannon Falls (south). It is word.
Cannon Falls is a great little town IF you live in town in one of the older (circa 1920) bungalows & 'craftsmans'. The new build is as awful as those pictures show. Hugo-Wyoming has always been a bit trashy... I have family up there and know.
WTH were those people thinking?
dryfly Mon Mar 23 10:49:28 2009 CDT #
Anonymous says:
You guys are missing the greatest bull market in ages. Stop being doomers. Enjoy life and the markets!
Anonymous Mon Mar 23 10:50:55 2009 CDT #
Basel Too says:
As the number of FHA loans increase conventional buyers leave the market. They actually are willing to put skin in the game but not bidding against sub prime buyers using government money to jack up prices.
There is was a foreclosed house in my neighborhood that was re-sold for about $310K. The buyer got an FHA loan for $625K (higher conforming MSA). Apparently, FHA will lend for repairs up to the renovated fair market value.
Basel Too Mon Mar 23 10:52:00 2009 CDT #
Anonymous says:
Apparently, FHA will lend for repairs up to the renovated fair market value.
maybe 35K max. for repairs or something in that range
Parent Post
Anonymous Mon Mar 23 11:17:44 2009 CDT #
cd says:
Annoymiss, thanks..known her since the 80's...having to wipe tears from her eyes and remove her glasses bcse of her condition put it all in persective...it feels like their killing the good people while praising the murderers....I honestly am tired of being nice...and irish/german/welsh sob's like to hit and get hit.....bring it on bankers...
cd Mon Mar 23 10:52:04 2009 CDT #
Comrade Janosik says:
Ron Paul is a bit like the Fool from King Lear. A very lovable character indeed, but if anyone thinks he's going to solve this "crisis"...well...it's optimistic at best and starry-eyed at worst.
Comrade Janosik Mon Mar 23 10:52:41 2009 CDT #
mp says:
"You guys are missing the greatest bull market in ages. Stop being doomers. Enjoy life and the markets!"
Sorry, but I'm not going to help blow yet another bubble.
mp Mon Mar 23 10:53:17 2009 CDT #
M says:
Z,
I am no troll. I posted one article, and I only posted it one time.
Relax.
M Mon Mar 23 10:55:08 2009 CDT #
Anonymous says:
Guest says:Today, 08:43:13
Lead blog entry here:
http://effectivedemand.blogspot.com/
shows how many of the loans in Ventura county are FHA. It literally made me sick to my stomach to see this. Then again, maybe it was just too much coffee with no food.
Last DQ info on the Bay area showed 24% using FHA. These programs will collapse at high default levels creating more pain. I guess the good news is that the government will not need to create another program to off load this MBS since we own this crap already and AIG who is providing the PMI.
Anonymous Mon Mar 23 10:56:32 2009 CDT #
An Abiding Dude says:
Dry Fly,
Can't believe an "Tuscany townhouse" in bum f___ Watertown didn't succeed. Sheesh.
Oh well, I can contemplate the financial meltdown while standing in my backyard which quite literally abuts the soon-to-be-closed Ford Ranger plant. Nowhere is immune.
An Abiding Dude Mon Mar 23 10:57:14 2009 CDT #
Anonymous says:
"The "distression" could be due to three things:
2) new homes haven't gone REO (haha)
3) builders haven't reduced their prices"
#2) is already happening, there are small builders that have gone bankrupt, a big one is bound to happen eventually.
3) They have, both in "free upgrades" and in price. Toll did 3.5% financing or something ridiculous like that. I fail to see how you can borrow short, and loan 30 years at 3.5% and make money, especially if there is inflation and short rates go higher, which is likely eventually.
They just don't like to advertise they are slashing prices.
Anonymous Mon Mar 23 11:01:16 2009 CDT #
Kung Fu Panda says:
Anecdote from Pacific NW: Our neighbor two doors down will be laid off shortly and was renting. Due to the lack of income they were planning on camping in a tent at least through the end of summer. Mrs. Panda has a relative with an old RV they weren't using; she arranged to give the RV to our neighbors so they'll at least be living in something with 4 walls until they can find something so that they can rent again. Can't imagine living in a tent in OR for any extended period. Sobering stuff...
Kung Fu Panda Mon Mar 23 11:02:20 2009 CDT #
Cinco-X says:
Some yurts look rather nice, and PacNW winters aren't THAT bad... Perhaps he could find a place on govt. land and home school the kids for now.
Parent Post
Cinco-X Mon Mar 23 11:07:34 2009 CDT #
Sexy Derivative says:
My question is how many of these mbs assets are worthless. Worth zero. A foreclosure or two in a AAA tranche accomplishes that. I guess those would be continued to be carried on the books as is now that mark to market is 'relaxed'.
Sexy Derivative Mon Mar 23 11:03:04 2009 CDT #
Michael says:
Santlli;
"Doing what they are doing now assumes it's right and the things they did during the great depression was wrong. This is Faulty Logic."
Only the market should decide who the winners an losers should be without intervention, this is the fairest system and will be proven the only right way.
Michael Mon Mar 23 11:03:06 2009 CDT #
Anonymous says:
Comrade Janosik says:Today, 11:52:41 AM“Ron Paul is a bit like the Fool from King Lear. A very lovable character indeed, but if anyone thinks he's going to solve this "crisis"...well...it's optimistic at best and starry-eyed at worst.
I'm not sure that RP is looking to "solve" the crisis... I think that assumes that there is some sort of magical "solution". I think RP is interested in helping people to underestand what got us here in the first place (his opinion, anyway). I think he is also interested in discussing the folly of our current "path" out of this mess.
Anonymous Mon Mar 23 11:04:30 2009 CDT #
alambka says:
I'm not sure that RP is looking to "solve" the crisis... I think that assumes that there is some sort of magical "solution". I think RP is interested in helping people to underestand what got us here in the first place (his opinion, anyway). I think he is also interested in discussing the folly of our current "path" out of this mess.
I agree the solution to this mess is a depression. That is what no one wants to admit. It would have been good to have some recessions along the way to clear the deadwood, but we didn't wnt that. A stitch in time saves nine.
Parent Post
alambka Mon Mar 23 11:18:53 2009 CDT #
Tim waiting for 2012 says:
Hate to say it but buying 50 shares of SKF at the end of the day to sell tomorrow morning.
Tim waiting for 2012 Mon Mar 23 11:07:48 2009 CDT #
Tim waiting for 2012 says:
Bill Gross on Cnbc begging the Fed to buy his MBS's. Bill it might be time to auction off that stamp collection
Tim waiting for 2012 Mon Mar 23 11:09:46 2009 CDT #
Tim waiting for 2012 says:
Stamp collection
http://www.iht.com/articles/2007/06/10/bloomberg/bxpimco.php
Teleprompter in Chief...
Tim waiting for 2012 Mon Mar 23 11:10:51 2009 CDT #
Michael says:
The BO screw is speaking again. Can someone please make him stop talking.
Michael Mon Mar 23 11:11:24 2009 CDT #
M says:
Bill Gross is going to rip off the taxpayers isnt he?
I mean he has the money to buy some congressmen and to influence the Treasury plan.
Its worked for Fannie Mae / Freddie Mac (buying influence).
M Mon Mar 23 11:12:03 2009 CDT #
turnthatfrownupsidedown says:
Anonymous says:
Today, 10:50:55 AM
“You guys are missing the greatest bull market in ages. Stop being doomers. Enjoy life and the markets!
I know, they read to much into all this doomy data. Obama and Geithner are doing something about it. okay? They're American. Dont you guys get that? What are YOU guys doing about it?
When Obama smiles and cajoles freely and confidently on Leno and 60 minutes... makes me proud to be an American. And Geithner the busy bee... he has the best interest of the American public. He seems to me like a great Woodrow Wilson.
turnthatfrownupsidedown Mon Mar 23 11:12:28 2009 CDT #
Markar says:
Please complete this petition urging your Congressman to cosponsor and a seek roll-call vote on Ron Paul’s Audit the Fed Bill --
That worked so well with TARP. Let's face it folks, petitions & calls to congresscritters ain't gonna work. We willhave to get off our collective asses and into the streets to stop this.
Markar Mon Mar 23 11:12:44 2009 CDT #
Michael says:
BO is a lying SOB.
Michael Mon Mar 23 11:13:35 2009 CDT #
Anonymous says:
Looks like Timmy finally got it right. Took long enough; but, better late than never.
Anonymous Mon Mar 23 11:14:00 2009 CDT #
Blackhalo says:
Wait, what? What exactly did he get right? His "plan" is warmed over TARP. That ship has sailed.
Parent Post
Blackhalo Mon Mar 23 11:15:51 2009 CDT #
Anonymous says:
The market says that this plan in the right one. I believe the market.
Anonymous Mon Mar 23 11:17:05 2009 CDT #
Michael says:
Thank God the American tax payer has no intention of ever paying for this mess because it is statistically impossible to do so. The Fed will just have to print out of thin air cover the debts.
Michael Mon Mar 23 11:18:09 2009 CDT #
turnthatfrownupsidedown says:
Anonymous is right. Very bullish news. Buy into it... or miss the boat forever Blackhalo. Do you want to be one of the doomsayers that lost out on the biggest bull market rebound ever? Be calm, just do it.
turnthatfrownupsidedown Mon Mar 23 11:18:40 2009 CDT #
Blackhalo says:
I think I'll wait until Tim tries to sell this bill to the congress, and do a straddle. IF it passes I'll wait for the euphoria to be priced in, and then go short.
Too much debt and not enough federal money for it to work.
Parent Post
Blackhalo Mon Mar 23 12:14:51 2009 CDT #
sam.2 says:
I think the fed will fail, unfortunately it will be after the failure of the dollar and our economy. As far as gold, the more this clown show goes on the better I feel about having some. A gold, oil, or mixed commodities standard is better than the no standard we have now.
alambka | Mon, 23 Mar 09 11:03:35 -0500 | #
GSG would be a good proxy or in tandem with GLD / physical gold
sam.2 Mon Mar 23 11:18:41 2009 CDT #
Gavshire Hathaway says:
"The market says that this plan in the right one. I believe the market."
--------------------------------------------------------
Until you pick a name you are a troll -- as such I don't value your opinion.
Gavshire Hathaway Mon Mar 23 11:19:53 2009 CDT #
popeye says:
Markar says:
Let's face it folks, petitions & calls to congresscritters ain't gonna work. We willhave to get off our collective asses and into the streets to stop this.
... and since no one is actually going to get up off their ass to "do anything about it", it seems reasonable to expect more gulfstreams in the air.
popeye Mon Mar 23 11:22:23 2009 CDT #
Tim waiting for 2012 says:
Michael says:
Today, 9:18:09 AM
“Thank God the American tax payer has no intention of ever paying for this mess because it is statistically impossible to do so. The Fed will just have to print out of thin air cover the debts.
That's What I'm hoping for. Lets get some stealth taxes as prices rise instead of outright taxes.
Tim waiting for 2012 Mon Mar 23 11:23:10 2009 CDT #
mp says:
I hope these guys pump this market till they're blue in the face, then I'm going to short it.
mp Mon Mar 23 11:23:38 2009 CDT #
Hymns for the Lord says:
How will you know when their faces are blue? (Phrased differently, at what point will you start shorting?)
Parent Post
Hymns for the Lord Mon Mar 23 12:09:26 2009 CDT #
CRbot says:
The Latest from Ritholz:
Existing Home Sales Fall 4.6%
CRbot Mon Mar 23 11:23:49 2009 CDT #
Basel Too says:
maybe 35K max. for repairs or something in that range
The $35K limit is for the Streamline 203(k) repair loan. For the conventional 203(k), the only requirement is that the total value of the property must fall within the FHA mortgage limit. This program is getting abused left and right.
http://www.hud.gov/offices/hsg/sfh/203k/203k--df.cfm
Basel Too Mon Mar 23 11:27:02 2009 CDT #
cd says:
I know they wont be getting 30k in taxes from me...I love llc's in nevada......its war...my family against tyrants and bankers....should be interesting....buying my mom a home so she can walk from hers and have a better retirement....thanks for the lessons over the last year big boys....
cd Mon Mar 23 11:27:27 2009 CDT #
alambka says:
cd says:
Today, 9:27:27 AM
“I know they wont be getting 30k in taxes from me...I love llc's in nevada......its war...my family against tyrants and bankers....should be interesting....buying my mom a home so she can walk from hers and have a better retirement....thanks for the lessons over the last year big boys....
I have been getting calls about incorporating my business in Nevada and continuing to operate in California. Mabye I will investigate further.
Parent Post
alambka Mon Mar 23 11:42:09 2009 CDT #
Black Star Ranch says:
"We've all seen and ignored your ridiculous petition."
No, actually we ALL haven't - but when there's "noise in the bush", you can bet your ass I'll take a look at it.
Black Star Ranch Mon Mar 23 11:27:31 2009 CDT #
evelyn woods graduate says:
<<Do you want to be one of the doomsayers that lost out on the biggest bull market rebound ever?>>
YES..I got out of the real estate and stock markets in mid 2006. The stench of wall streets involvement in your life just doesn't go away.
I'm 1/3 cash, 1/3 personal residence and 1/3 self employed. I'll go it alone thanks.
evelyn woods graduate Mon Mar 23 11:28:28 2009 CDT #
EvilHenryPaulson says:
Canadian banks + CMHC (federal mortgage guarantor, our equivalent of FNM or FRE except that it is owned by the government) are publicly offering to re-negotiate mortgages before they go in to default. My guess is that their internal data is showing the layoffs in manufacturing and construction
http://business.theglobeandmail.com/servlet/story/RTGAM.20090323.wrmortgages23/BNStory/Business/home
EvilHenryPaulson Mon Mar 23 11:33:08 2009 CDT #
Black Star Ranch says:
....congrats, cd.......
Black Star Ranch Mon Mar 23 11:35:28 2009 CDT #
Tim waiting for 2012 says:
Aig to become AI(o)U holdings
http://www.reuters.com/article/governmentFilingsNews/idUSN2264343620090322
Tim waiting for 2012 Mon Mar 23 11:39:46 2009 CDT #
cd says:
BSR-those wall street guys are good teachers..why should my mother carry a depreciating asset when I can get one for 100k less down the street...she'll pay 700 less a month, enjoy retirement more and I can wait for inflation to help out...10-15 years later that is....
Our govt plays games...well so can we.....tired of being nice and playing by rules that they make up but dont follow
cd Mon Mar 23 11:42:45 2009 CDT #
Tim waiting for 2012 says:
cd et al
So if you incorporate in Nevada you pay all taxes to Nevada and not California, Just curious.
Tim waiting for 2012 Mon Mar 23 11:48:06 2009 CDT #
Basel Too says:
cd:
well that purchase to your mom will make the NAR happy. One more existing home sale 8-)
Taxpayers, on the other hand, not so much. But as you rightly point out, you're not breaking any laws, and the bigger boys are doing it at a much higher number. C'est la vie.
Basel Too Mon Mar 23 11:51:57 2009 CDT #
EvilHenryPaulson says:
re: Nevada
Basel Too is probably more current with state finances than I, but I would caution you to have couple backup states to incorporate in.
If the gambling/auto sales slump continues through 2009, they will have to bring in income taxes
EvilHenryPaulson Mon Mar 23 11:53:04 2009 CDT #
slg says:
"If the gambling/auto sales slump continues through 2009, they [Nevada] will have to bring in income taxes"
It would require that a statewide referendum pass. Twice, two years apart. And after amending the state constitution. The legislature alone can't impose an income tax.
Not likely.
Parent Post
slg Mon Mar 23 14:42:25 2009 CDT #
AnonyMiss says:
Good morning, EHP. Have looked at the numbers from the first ICE Trust CDS clearing, and if so, what do you make of them? It's completely beyond me but I was hoping you could explain them if you have time?
AnonyMiss Mon Mar 23 12:00:44 2009 CDT #
EvilHenryPaulson says:
AnonyMiss,
I knew ICE got approved, but I'm not sure what numbers you refer to? On their website
Sorry, can't goof off too much
Parent Post
EvilHenryPaulson Mon Mar 23 12:08:32 2009 CDT #
cd says:
tim, no state taxes and definitely lower taxes overall...just need to have a resident agent for address..
Ehp-still a lot lower than california no matter what they throw out at ya...consulting business......
basel...just trying to make it easier for mom...plus play there game..sorry to all of you but now I guess selfishness has invaded my soul, plus I can picture my mother with a cocktail on a cruiseship easier this way...
cd Mon Mar 23 12:11:10 2009 CDT #
popeye says:
cd,
Don't apologize for making an intelligent move. The legalities aren't moral guideposts; they're just political compromises made by people who commute in Gulfstreams.
popeye Mon Mar 23 12:19:33 2009 CDT #
cd says:
thanks popeye...she spotted a home around the block with 79k price..believe we can get something around 59k, 15 year loan-10% down...she's able to do a lot more after working for state nursing facilitator...she will never pay off current mtg anyways...
had to apologize, bcse believe it or not..I followed the rules, now I could care less....
cd Mon Mar 23 12:32:10 2009 CDT #
popeye says:
cd,
So long as the kleptocrats treat democracy as a game to be played for their benefit, we need to play the rules the kleptocrats make like they are a game - as best we can.
Really !!
popeye Mon Mar 23 12:42:56 2009 CDT #
GS Trading Desk says:
Still some upside in health care and utilities, gang.
C'mon, help us out. Gotta get to the moon somehow.
GS Trading Desk Mon Mar 23 13:05:29 2009 CDT #
Tarik (Brazil) says:
Something I dont understand about the gap between Existing and New Home Sales:
I suppose the gap would be due to lower prices in existing home sales caused by the distressed Sales. So, people would prefer buying a existing home (cheaper) instead of a new one (more expensive).
However, if we analyse the ratio New Home Median Price / Existing Home Median Price, we see the existing homes are not so cheaper comparing with the recent past. So, why do people prefer to buy a existing home?
Cheers,
Tarik
Tarik (Brazil) Mon Mar 23 16:51:35 2009 CDT #
END