Comments for "Unemployment Insurance: Continued Claims Over 5.5 Million"
CRbot says:
This comment thread has been HALO-IZED by CRbot.
http://realize.org/cr/halokit.php?halourl=http://www.haloscan.com/comments/calculatedrisk/8236950909578619197
CRbot Thu Mar 26 07:46:33 2009 CDT #
Rob Dawg says:
I correctly predicted you'd need a bigger graph.
Rob Dawg Thu Mar 26 07:47:54 2009 CDT #
8 Ball says:
Do the gubbmint unemployment computers stop working at 650,000?
8 Ball Thu Mar 26 07:48:27 2009 CDT #
Anonymous says:
Do the gubbmint unemployment computers stop working at 650,000?
Yes. They did indeed prove on "Mythbusters" not long ago that you actually can polish turds.
Parent Post
Anonymous Thu Mar 26 09:49:11 2009 CDT #
volker the viking says:
8 Ball: the computers get laid off after they go above 650,000
volker the viking Thu Mar 26 07:50:42 2009 CDT #
Alex says:
Sorry for the OT question: Has anyone heard any scuttlebutt about Everbank's exposure to bad debt?
Alex Thu Mar 26 07:50:47 2009 CDT #
Anonymous says:
'I correctly predicted you'd need a bigger graph.'
And Jas correctly predicted the CR remains too optimistic, but at least he is humble enough to avoid noting that fact himself - oh, wait.
Anonymous Thu Mar 26 07:53:31 2009 CDT #
Mike in Long Island says:
@RobDawg - 'cause I know it's one of your hot buttons
<a href="http://www.newsday.com/business/ny-wordz266083609mar26,0,5208223.story">MTA fare hikes 26% on average</a>
Mike in Long Island Thu Mar 26 07:55:34 2009 CDT #
Automonkey says:
I prefer the second chart. Can we just use that one going forward?
Automonkey Thu Mar 26 07:56:07 2009 CDT #
Guest says:
Ahhh...the early 1980s. I had just graduated from high school and didn't really know the economy was that goofed up. Hey! my eighteen year old son is working two jobs! He wants to quit the auto shop (he is sweeping floors) and work more at the Cold Stone ice cream store...from what I can gather...there are girls at the ice cream store.
Guest Thu Mar 26 08:06:06 2009 CDT #
1 currency now [yogi] :) says:
It's OK, Citi and JPM are profiting from the economy.
1 currency now [yogi] :) Thu Mar 26 08:10:16 2009 CDT #
Dead_Monkey_Bounce says:
Continued weakness, but at least it doesn't seem to be getting statistically worse.
Dead_Monkey_Bounce Thu Mar 26 08:10:30 2009 CDT #
Rob Dawg says:
Mike in LI,
That's great. A little price discovery goes a long way these days. 26% fare hikes represent an extremely modest reduction in the total subsidy so riders should be grateful. Part of this will actually push more people on to monthly pass programs so the revenue won't be as much and the ridership won't fall as much as expected. There is one tragedy I'm sure you agree: Weekend service on West Hempstead branch will be eliminated.
Rob Dawg Thu Mar 26 08:13:08 2009 CDT #
1 currency now [yogi] :) says:
I'm now calling Congressmen to demand AIG look into injunctive legal relief from sham CDS activity. Ambac has forestalled a CDS payout to John Hancock.
1 currency now [yogi] :) Thu Mar 26 08:13:36 2009 CDT #
popeye says:
I'm going to sit the next move out. Luck to all.
popeye Thu Mar 26 08:13:55 2009 CDT #
bearmom says:
I'm sitting it out too but am feeling particularly empathetic with the 5th beatle today as goog & co. continues to climb. Am starting to wonder how long this one might last...
Parent Post
bearmom Thu Mar 26 09:50:00 2009 CDT #
Hymns for the Lord says:
It's only a week to the end of the quarter. And then earnings reports will start to dribble in. That ought to take care of the optimists out there. *DONT_KNOW*
Parent Post
Hymns for the Lord Thu Mar 26 10:54:56 2009 CDT #
blackhat says:
I have a bad feeling that the market has been seeded with the following expectations based on the "past"--that in fact recovery happens decoupled from worsening unemployement. As unemployment continutes to worsen, analysts will ignore it as a lagging indicator in their valuations of equities. But this will be another iceburg, and anaylysts will be shocked shocked shocked that it wasn't a lagging indicator but the defining one. Unemployment in the 80s was high in a high inflation environment, so let's just see how this shakes out when unemployment starts high in a deflationary environment and "works" itself into a high inflationary environment.
--bh
blackhat Thu Mar 26 08:15:00 2009 CDT #
Dave in SV says:
OT--CR--A belated "thanks" for adding "The Baseline Scenario" to your blog honor roll.
Dave in SV Thu Mar 26 08:15:24 2009 CDT #
1 currency now [yogi] :) says:
No but Wall Street's domestic servantry will not be thrilled.
Every US Highway should have electronic tolls every mile. We have the technology, my EZ registers at 65 MPH.
1 currency now [yogi] :) Thu Mar 26 08:16:27 2009 CDT #
ac says:
I prefer the second chart. Can we just use that one going forward?
To me it seems to me to be undereporting the severity of the situation vis-à-vis the unemployment in the recessions of the 70s/80s. Assuming that's an accurate comparison.
ac Thu Mar 26 08:18:31 2009 CDT #
web marketing says:
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web marketing Thu Mar 26 08:20:45 2009 CDT #
Werner says:
...Continued claims are now at 5.56 million - the all time record...
Don't worry, you will get a new "all time reccord" .(As soon as the despicable manipulation of american statistics ends.) I guess yout TRUE unemployment rate is 18%, not the oficcial reported 8% .
Happy AAA-lying and money printing !
Werner Thu Mar 26 08:21:08 2009 CDT #
web marketing says:
hello
web marketing Thu Mar 26 08:21:27 2009 CDT #
Rob Dawg says:
Every US Highway should have electronic tolls every mile. We have the technology, my EZ registers at 65 MPH.
We know. too bad the toll plaza is signed for 45mph. You'll be expected to show up for your preliminary hearing and plea at Room 231 municipal court building...
See? It isn't tolls, it is abuse of toll information that prevents implementation. Nonetheless I fully expect some massive tolling efforts as a pure fund raising scheme as VMT drops and fuel efficiency/alternative energy rises.
Rob Dawg Thu Mar 26 08:22:29 2009 CDT #
CRbot says:
The Latest from Ritholz:
Bernanke Bombshell: AIG Insurer Exposed to FP
CRbot Thu Mar 26 08:23:44 2009 CDT #
ac says:
BTW, is there a 2x ETF for that red line?
ac Thu Mar 26 08:25:28 2009 CDT #
popeye says:
"Though typically overlooked, participants will take note of a $24 billion 7-year Treasury Note auction, which is scheduled for this afternoon (1:00 PM ET). Given the weak showing in Wednesday's 5-year Note auction, participants speculate that investors' risk appetite may be changing."
http://www.briefing.com/Investor/Public/MarketSnapshot/StockMarketUpdate.htm
popeye Thu Mar 26 08:26:30 2009 CDT #
popeye says:
JS-kit is not cut and paste friendly - sorry
popeye Thu Mar 26 08:27:10 2009 CDT #
Comrade Byzantine_Ruins says:
That's okay. Thaks for the timecheck on the auction, Popeye.
Comrade Byzantine_Ruins Thu Mar 26 08:29:12 2009 CDT #
1 currency now [yogi] :) says:
Price discovery is when the unemployed can't afford to travel to interviews, when they jail more desperate people for jumping turnstyles, and when the minimum wage earner at MacDonalds, the GAP, and other publicly traded non-unionized shops spend their entire first hour paying for their ride, and the rest of their workday paying for bailouts.
1 currency now [yogi] :) Thu Mar 26 08:30:26 2009 CDT #
Hysterian says:
Werner: go check out Shadowstats.com. The truth is out there...
Hysterian Thu Mar 26 08:30:38 2009 CDT #
Werner says:
Mike in Long Island says:
- 'cause I know it's one of your hot buttons ...
... fare hikes 26% on average...
Fare hikes 26% on average ? But.. but.. but.. According to the experts on this board you have deflation !
Since there is no transmission of the increase in money supply into wages, there can be no inflation (according to unnamed experts on this blog) !
(You need to tell this the MTA ! )
Werner Thu Mar 26 08:30:57 2009 CDT #
Wisdom Speaker says:
Unheralded (because the market already knows this) is today's BEA corporate profits report, which shows a year-on-year change of -36.3% for Q4 of 2008, versus prior number of -10.1% from Q3.
The absolute profits came in around $900 billion, down from a peak of $1400 billion or so. There's a nice bubble in absolute profits, with the current drop bringing the bubble back to 2004 levels. The 1996-2002 levels were $450-550 billion. (The politically minded will enjoy this graph, since it appears that a very large fraction of the "economic growth" from 2002-2006 went into after-tax corporate profits.)
We can expect the absolute corporate profits to not only return to pre-bubble levels, but to overshoot to the downside as a result of the ongoing recession. The total contraction in profits is likely to bring them to a mere 40% of their peak. Including a P/E multiplier that reflects genuine and reasonable anxiety about the future (10-ish) versus the "all is well" P/E multiple of 16-20 that characterized the recent past, and tossing in the ongoing decline in GDP, one gets "fair value" estimates for the bottom in the S&P500 at below 400 (!)
Thus, while the ongoing bear market rally is not to be denied, the downside risks remain very substantial.
Data here:
http://mam.econoday.com/byshoweventfull.asp?fid=438093&cust=mam&year=2009
Wisdom Speaker Thu Mar 26 08:31:17 2009 CDT #
CRbot says:
The Latest from Ritholz:
New Home Sales Fell 41% in February 2009
CRbot Thu Mar 26 08:32:13 2009 CDT #
Basel Too says:
But.. but.. but.. According to the experts on this board you have deflation !
Yes, the riders have to make for the deflation in the tax revenues, pension fund accounts, etc. ugly all around
Basel Too Thu Mar 26 08:34:15 2009 CDT #
Comrade Byzantine_Ruins says:
See? It isn't tolls, it is abuse of toll information that prevents implementation.
Pivacy invasion is the flaming river / london fog of the information revolution. Who canot think there is a problem, but we will watch it happen for 100 years before we get off our asses.
<i>Nonetheless I fully expect some massive tolling efforts as a pure fund raising scheme as VMT drops and fuel efficiency/alternative energy rises.</i>
I'm watching my locale try to implement a truly hare-brained tax-in-disguise of rental unit inspection and registration. If this is the general tenor of the response everywhere -- and I watch them because they are of general incompetence -- we will see a lot of half-baked efforts at raising funds that fritter away at least as much as they capture. Nothing stupid this country's current leadership cohort did will surprise me, especially not at the local /state level, where they couldn't even make the cut to A-rate corporate stooge and join the national scene.
Comrade Byzantine_Ruins Thu Mar 26 08:35:00 2009 CDT #
Yearning To Learn says:
Continued claims are now at 5.56 million - the all time record.
is part of this due to the fact that we now have extended unemployment benefits? would it look this bad graphically without the extended unemployment bennies? (I understand that the picture would be worse without extended benefits, just wondering how it affects continued claims)
Yearning To Learn Thu Mar 26 08:35:15 2009 CDT #
Werner says:
Hysterian says:
“Werner: go check out Shadowstats.com. The truth is out there...
Thanks for the advice. I know this page for a couple of years now. Yeah, some very eyeopening data/graphs there.
There is another nice one : Grandfather Inflation report (http://mwhodges.home.att.net/inflation.htm) . Thanks.
Werner Thu Mar 26 08:42:04 2009 CDT #
ac says:
is part of this due to the fact that we now have extended unemployment benefits? would it look this bad graphically without the extended unemployment bennies?
Yeah, I think that's the idea behind the second graph, which I accept in principle. Still I want and explanation for the apparent divergence from the unemployment claims (unless that's my imagination).
ac Thu Mar 26 08:43:12 2009 CDT #
turnthatfrownupsidedown says:
It is good that Obama has insurance for the unemployed. But it won't be needed for long because the economy is coming back stronger than ever before. Geithner knows very well the implications of unemployment. And Obama's trust in Geithner is doing the job.
turnthatfrownupsidedown Thu Mar 26 08:46:15 2009 CDT #
Anonymous says:
http://boombustblog.com/Reggie-Middleton/884-Reggie-Middletons-Overview-of-the-Public-Private-Investment-Program.html
Read the comment by Cupiter. Interesting...
Anonymous Thu Mar 26 08:46:23 2009 CDT #
1 currency now [yogi] :) says:
Actually ez-pass runs better than Wells Fargo, I'm told. Micropricing is coming, and true free marketers should love the fact that now we can "discover" so much. I'll fork over a dime a day to CR, if he gets the comments up to speed. 5000 dimes a day will buy him the latest hiking gear. (Ad block plus blocks the banners for free.) My new digital currency will practically eliminate electronic transaction fees, in the name of the almighty velocity of money. A Rod will be paid whatever the meter says, no more guessing. (The owners will have to sell him the team if Ben can't print fast enough)
1 currency now [yogi] :) Thu Mar 26 08:49:00 2009 CDT #
Comrade Byzantine_Ruins says:
Werner:
> Fare hikes 26% on average ? But.. but.. but..
> According to the experts on this board you have deflation !
It would be easier if you thought of the transit system, not as an end-user service delivered to you, but an end user service delivered to employers, as that's mostly what it is in America, a subsidy for the fact that we don't pay living wages.
Partly the rider pays for it but mostly everyone pays for it because the kinds of businesses that employ transit-dependent riders have pushed the costs off onto society as a whole as being of benefit to the people they exploit. Not saying that's true everywhere, but it's the true picture here.
In NY, part of the funding stream is paid for with a real estate transfer tax levy (apparently, just quoting the NY TImes here) and that's a cyclical revenue stream so as you can imagine, it's gone now.
So this is really a contraction in government services to corporations due to declining tax revenues that's pushed off onto the riding worker, despite the fact that the consumer is already paying, while the place they work is not, despite the fact that what's appropriate (that is, a direct response that tries to award the costs to the person who is most at fault and least bearing current costs) would be levying a punitive tax on employers who used employees below a certain pay level.
Comrade Byzantine_Ruins Thu Mar 26 08:49:19 2009 CDT #
Hymns for the Lord says:
Comrade Byzantine_Ruins says:
Today, 6:49:19 AM PDT
"we don't pay living wages."
By what standard? Certainly not a global one. Ask an average Indian, Chinese, or Nigerian if they think 100 times their annual income is a living wage.
I'm not being fatuous. I know your frame of reference is the maldistribution of wealth within the city (New York) or perhaps the country (United States); I'm just pointing out that the same holds for the U.S. versus the rest of the world.
It always strikes me as odd when moral arguments are made about an issue but then assumed to hold validity only within the boundaries of a governing unit (such as a city, state, country, ...), as artificial a threshold as any.
Parent Post
Hymns for the Lord Thu Mar 26 11:34:47 2009 CDT #
Broward Horne says:
"a lot of half-baked efforts at raising funds that fritter away at least as much as they capture"
----
There won't be a net positive income. The harder they try to collect more money, the less will come in. The Feds and states have been jiggering around the optimum Laffer limit for many years and almost certainly cannot increase net income anymore, only deoptimize it.
It will take awhile before they figure that out, though.
Broward Horne Thu Mar 26 08:49:20 2009 CDT #
reptillian says:
On the 2nd chart it looks as though continued claims aren't lagging as much as they did in the 70s and 80s.
reptillian Thu Mar 26 08:53:32 2009 CDT #
turnthatfrownupsidedown says:
The 70's and 80's were horrendous. In fact, I think they were worse than the Great Depression. In my day, during the 70's, even disco couldn't save us from the massive unemployment. So bad. Right now is kids stuff! Obama is doing a great job.
turnthatfrownupsidedown Thu Mar 26 08:58:14 2009 CDT #
reptillian says:
I rode the bus when my car was out of commission.
The driver told me the $1.00 fare didn't cover the cost of the ride, even if the bus were full.
reptillian Thu Mar 26 08:58:39 2009 CDT #
Tom Stone says:
Werner,you misunderstand the American System.We have Had Socialism for the Rich and Capitalism for the Poor and Middle Class for decades,just more so now.As far as Inflation/Deflation we have Inflation of the Necessities of life,and Deflation for all more or less discretionary items.Simple.For those who want their tin foil hats to short out in a shower of sparks,Google "RFID Chips" or "spy chips" this technology is being used now.Gotta love the drug dispensing chips,they could cure Jas's anomie...
Tom Stone Thu Mar 26 09:00:37 2009 CDT #
Anonymous says:
written by cupiter, March 24, 2009
Step 1: I would set up a new entity, say a Structured Investment Vehicel (SIV) and call it $chiti. I doubt the banking regulators will think there is anything strange with this name.
Step 2: I would place 10 billion dollars of TARP funds into $chiti. This money, which the government gave Citi, comes in handy for setting up these off balance sheet companies.
Step 3: I would instruct my lackey at $chiti to bid on $250 billion dollars of bad assets in Citi. These assets are not worth $250 billion, that is their face value. . The problem is they are only worth between 7 and 10 billion dollars. $chiti would not bid $250 billion dollars for these gems. No, anyone could tell these mis- understood assets must be worth at least $300 billion dollars. So, $chiti places a bid for $300 billion dollars.
$chiti wins the bid, and now needs to come up with $290 billion dollars (remember it only has $10 billion in it right now) to buy Citi's bad assets. This is where the government comes in. Tim's plan lends and "invests" the other $290 billion.
So, now at Citi, I make $50 billion dollars of profit as I get $300 billion for assets that were originally worth $250 billion.
$chiti does not fair quite so well, as the assets it bought are worth no more than $10 billion dollars. So over time the loan the government gave me through Mr. Geithner goes bad, and $chiti goes bankrupt.
Now let's look at that first option. Someone else bids more than $300 billion for Citi's assets. I know it is unlikely, but you never know. Assume they bid $310 billion. Well then, Citi makes $60 billion in profit and it quietly shuts down $chiti and takes back the $10 billion in it. So overall, I make $60 billion in money (the $10 billion coming back from $chiti does not count as profit it is really just moving an asset).
In reality, Citi probably won't be so blatant as to buy their own assets. They will collude with Bank Of America and JP Morgan and other banks, with the help of Geithner, to buy each others' assets. This way it all appear kosher, while the taxpayer is fleeced for vast sums of money.
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Anonymous Thu Mar 26 09:01:13 2009 CDT #
Comrade Byzantine_Ruins says:
Right now is kids stuff!
Of course it is! The sovereign defalts haven't even started. This is like a lighthearted intermezzo where a bunch of guys in paisano costumes come out and do pratfalls and pass out candy.
We'll get back into the heavy Borgia / Medici Italan poisoner's opera momentarily.
Comrade Byzantine_Ruins Thu Mar 26 09:01:54 2009 CDT #
1 currency now [yogi] :) says:
I'm happy to subsidize a nurse's daily ride to my nearest hospital. I ride my bike, but I'm lucky. I want backpacking tourists and starving artists to get around my city cheaply. And don't forget the busloads of flat broke red staters that still show up at the Port Authority. Always been our collective problem and always will be.
1 currency now [yogi] :) Thu Mar 26 09:03:03 2009 CDT #
1 currency now [yogi] :) says:
And reptilian, if the bus co went bk without a subsidy, how would you get around then?
1 currency now [yogi] :) Thu Mar 26 09:05:52 2009 CDT #
nova says:
Tolls? Lately, the Virginia State Police have been shutting down I66 HOV to pull HOV violaters. At $500 for 1st offense it is a money maker. They did it before but not like they are now. Now it is am and pm rush hour.
nova Thu Mar 26 09:07:36 2009 CDT #
Comrade Byzantine_Ruins says:
No diagreement Yogi. just trying to present to Werner the actual mechanism in a way that I felt was even-handed enough that Rob Dawg would find it agreeable / truthful as well.
Comrade Byzantine_Ruins Thu Mar 26 09:09:06 2009 CDT #
Broward Horne says:
"We'll get back into the heavy Borgia / Medici Italan poisoner's opera momentarily"
---
Nice.
the micro-pricing reminds me of the Enron period of 'electricity deregulation", the ability to produce complicated pricing models on something that... really doesn't need it much. Sure, there will be some pricing changes on marginal items but in reality, it's about raising taxes to get more money, not to re-allocate existing money to better map resource to demand.
Do I really need a line item on my restaurant bill for a Sweet-N-Low packet?
Hmmm, probably not.
Likewise, the attempt to deregulate electricity produce higher, not lower costs because complex systems are more susceptible to failure and fraud.
Broward Horne Thu Mar 26 09:10:20 2009 CDT #
Rob Dawg says:
In NY, part of the funding stream is paid for with a real estate transfer tax levy (apparently, just quoting the NY TImes here) and that's a cyclical revenue stream so as you can imagine, it's gone now.
I'd call that a close second place in the cynical NYC transportation accounting universe. Number one is their practice of calling bridge tolls farebox revenues.
Rob Dawg Thu Mar 26 09:11:13 2009 CDT #
Anak says:
Pardon the OT and if it has been posted before, but the tories are in form as they call out Gordon Brown for serving more booze to the boozer.
Often it's been noted that the opposition parties of the UK and other parliamentary gov'ts put on a better show than our own. For all that, they don't seem to get any better results in the end it appears.
Don't know if it's even more poingant for that.
http://blogs.telegraph.co.uk/daniel_hannan/blog/2009/03/24/so_i_said_to_gordon_brown_i_said?
Anak Thu Mar 26 09:13:02 2009 CDT #
Rob Dawg says:
just trying to present to Werner the actual mechanism in a way that I felt was even-handed enough that Rob Dawg would find it agreeable / truthful as well. - Byz
You did a good job. Transit subsidies have all kinds of perverse incentives. Depressing wages being among the most egregious. One aspect of the uneven nature of the housing bubble burst is how long NYC has defied gravity. That's in part because personal transportation costs were not exposed to the same price shocks that the exurbs experienced. If we reduce transit subsidies the response would be for the jobs to move out not for the people to move closer.
Rob Dawg Thu Mar 26 09:20:07 2009 CDT #
Doc at the Radar Station says:
Interesting charts. Since the 80's recession ended (along with big inflation), the unemployment charts look more and more like handwritten Farsi that is written right to left instead of left to right. It must be the result of it being more and more of a lagging indicator and shows more structural change and persistence.
Doc at the Radar Station Thu Mar 26 09:21:26 2009 CDT #
Blackhalo says:
Hmm I still need to file.
So, nice to be let go on a project that one spends 12 mos. busting ass on, 3 weeks before RTS, by a maniger that has no grasp of the business, or the amount of effort involved, nor the amount of work on the roadmap ahead.
Blackhalo Thu Mar 26 09:21:27 2009 CDT #
Chicago Dude says:
<i>Tolls? Lately, the Virginia State Police have been shutting down I66 HOV to pull HOV violaters. At $500 for 1st offense it is a money maker.</i>
nova, I'm not sure I understand. Are you saying that they are making everyone come to a complete stop, like a DUI checkpoint?
Chicago Dude Thu Mar 26 09:22:07 2009 CDT #
popeye says:
"For all that, they don't seem to get any better results in the end it appears."
Form of government vs economic control. Alexander Hamilton won.
popeye Thu Mar 26 09:22:47 2009 CDT #
Anonymous says:
Hot town, summer in the city
Back of my neck getting dirty and gritty
Been down, isn't it a pity
Doesn't seem to be a shadow in the city
All around, people looking half dead
Walking on the sidewalk, hotter than a match head
Anonymous Thu Mar 26 09:23:01 2009 CDT #
citiprank says:
Public transportation should be subsidized..... I mean roads are the biggest subsidy there is....
I always laugh when peopl,e think the subway should be "profitable".. no one ever says the highway should be profitable.
citiprank Thu Mar 26 09:23:49 2009 CDT #
Rob Dawg says:
It's about raising taxes to get more money, not to re-allocate existing money to better map resource to demand. Do I really need a line item on my restaurant bill for a Sweet-N-Low packet? [These systems exist] because complex systems are more susceptible to failure and fraud. - Broward Horne
I am so stealing this. Bravo.
Rob Dawg Thu Mar 26 09:23:52 2009 CDT #
Anonymous says:
Wouldn't it be better to adjust for population size? It's not a good sign if the labor force shrinks (as it did after the last recession), even if that makes the employment numbers look better.
Anonymous Thu Mar 26 09:24:54 2009 CDT #
Anonymous says:
Blackhalo,
sorry about it. Just never let a job get in the way of the family stuff. Because the employer ultimately doesn't give a damn.
Anonymous Thu Mar 26 09:25:32 2009 CDT #
Blackhalo says:
Thanks, but do not worry about me... Single renter who planned ahead. Family, friends and co-workers, have provied solid support. If I had been offered the separation, I would have taken it. Within 12 mos. I will wager I will be back, at a 40% pay bump once the dust settles.
Parent Post
Blackhalo Thu Mar 26 09:34:41 2009 CDT #
Broward Horne says:
Blackhalo - welcome to the Real World. :)
Broward Horne Thu Mar 26 09:26:46 2009 CDT #
Comrade Byzantine_Ruins says:
<i>I'd call that a close second place in the cynical NYC transportation accounting universe. Number one is their practice of calling bridge tolls farebox revenues.</i>
Yeah, I was like, man, those Albany backroom deals must be as-described.
If it wasn't for internal cash control, I sometimes doubt governments would have accounting systems.
"I'll make up the nonsense numbers and then you change how the allocations work until we like the results."
I mean, politics of the issue aren't going to be served by competitive obfuscation, whatever side you stand on.
Comrade Byzantine_Ruins Thu Mar 26 09:27:26 2009 CDT #
citiprank says:
From above... whoever said that public transit is a service provided to employers is totally correct....
Also.. we are nowhere near any sort of "laffer limit".. that's nonsense that would make kudlow proud.. the problem is that almost all tax schemes are regressive (outside of federal income tax) and the bottom 80-90% really is tapped out.... the people that stole all the money and paid for all the congressman have plenty of money.. but taxing them is "class warfare"
citiprank Thu Mar 26 09:28:55 2009 CDT #
Blackhalo says:
"taxing them is "class warfare""
Crime rate lags unemployment by how much? Top 1%ers are in for an unpleasant surprize, I would think. It should be interesting how the motivated criminal element utilizes new technologies in unpredictable ways.
Parent Post
Blackhalo Thu Mar 26 09:39:36 2009 CDT #
citiprank says:
Toll roads are another awful idea... just a regressive tax on people who are just scraping by as it is.
citiprank Thu Mar 26 09:29:39 2009 CDT #
Blackhalo says:
"Toll roads are another awful idea... just a regressive tax on people who are just scraping by as it is."
And a big land grab for the well connected. Includding Non-compete agreements from the state and local gov's to insure $$$ get funneled to the friends and families of the well connected. I hope Kay Baily roasts Perry with this one.
Parent Post
Blackhalo Thu Mar 26 09:49:42 2009 CDT #
Max says:
I love the 80s:
<a href="http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=eM-j4iZu9wo">Wake up (It's 1984)</a>
Big brother's watching, we watch him back
We see right through his disguise
He tries to scare us, with angry words
But we all know that they're lies
Whole world is waiting
Just see the fear in their eyes
Whole world is watching, observing every move
Is it beginning or the end?
Just like a chess game, but so intense
That I just don't understand
Anticipation
It's much to big to pretend
Max Thu Mar 26 09:30:27 2009 CDT #
Rob Dawg says:
citiprank pontificates:
I mean roads are the biggest subsidy there is..
Source? Cite? Data? Anecdote? I'm always willing to listen.
Rob Dawg Thu Mar 26 09:30:57 2009 CDT #
Max says:
I love the 80s:
<a href="http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=eM-j4iZu9wo">Wake up (It's 1984)</a>
Big brother's watching, we watch him back
We see right through his disguise
He tries to scare us, with angry words
But we all know that they're lies
Whole world is waiting
Just see the fear in their eyes
Whole world is watching, observing every move
Is it beginning or the end?
Just like a chess game, but so intense
That I just don't understand
Anticipation
It's much to big to pretend
Max Thu Mar 26 09:31:05 2009 CDT #
Black Star Ranch says:
"In other words, we should have nationalized them [AIG] from the beginning."
Black Star Ranch Thu Mar 26 09:31:40 2009 CDT #
Dirk van Dijk says:
OT: I will be on Fox Business on Tuesday between 9:15 and 9:45 Eastern time discussing Timmy's bank bailout program
Dirk van Dijk Thu Mar 26 09:31:44 2009 CDT #
Gatsby says:
Not sure if it's been posted already, but last night's South Park episode about the economy was GREAT.
The government consulting "the chart" to decide what to do was especially brilliant.
Gatsby Thu Mar 26 09:35:59 2009 CDT #
popeye says:
Citiprank,
Gotta disagree with you on toll roads. I favor use tax on that issue. Let the government hold exclusive rights to build and maintain roads while collecting a use tax based on miles driven and weight. Gasoline tax is the stupid method.
It's about raising taxes to get more money, not to re-allocate existing money to better map resource to demand. Do I really need a line item on my restaurant bill for a Sweet-N-Low packet? [These systems exist] because complex systems are more susceptible to failure and fraud. - Broward Horne
Did I steal that ?
popeye Thu Mar 26 09:36:15 2009 CDT #
Blackhalo says:
"Gasoline tax is the stupid method."
Is fuel consuption not a linear function of weight and distance traveled? Does it not also reward fuel efficiency, a noble goal? Granted it is regressive and the tax gets passed on to consumers, but so do tolls.
IHS should be subsidised out of the general fund, as we all benifit. EZ pass tolls are a regressive convinence tax and allows big gov to keep taps on the peeps.
Parent Post
Blackhalo Thu Mar 26 09:44:23 2009 CDT #
ac says:
OT: I will be on Fox Business on Tuesday between 9:15 and 9:45 Eastern time discussing Timmy's bank bailout program
Did you see Karl's post about how it is already being abused? Interesting angle IMO.
ac Thu Mar 26 09:40:07 2009 CDT #
citiprank says:
"Source? Cite? Data? Anecdote? I'm always willing to listen. "
The only thing I'm saying is that a lot of people look at things like subways and buses as a "business" that shoudl turn a profit... yet very few people look at roads that way.. in most places there is no "fee" to drive on the roads (tolls being the exception)
I mean it's a very, very complex subject... .But in general trains can move people far more efficiently for a much lower footprint.. both energy wise and land wise.;....
Of course you make the point about jobs moving out from the cities... but I'm not so sure it's that simple.
I minght have a different take because I live in the chicago burbs and we have a fantastic commuter train systrem that is very, very popular.. like to the point where they keep having to add service.
citiprank Thu Mar 26 09:41:33 2009 CDT #
Rob Dawg says:
There's nothing wrong with substituting more direct use taxes from the imperfect gas tax method in place currently. The problem is the potential for abuse. Use taxes on fire trucks? What about the fire chief's car? What about when he takes it home? The mayor? Certainly we'll have any number of exemptions right? And since urban roads are in greater demand and more expensive we'll certainly tie rates to true costs and really ream core cities right? Right? Sad to say we have an example of trying to establish use based transportation charging mixed with social goals; transit fares.
Rob Dawg Thu Mar 26 09:45:24 2009 CDT #
citiprank says:
"
Gotta disagree with you on toll roads. I favor use tax on that issue. Let the government hold exclusive rights to build and maintain roads while collecting a use tax based on miles driven and weight. Gasoline tax is the stupid method."
I'm not necessarily an advocate for gasoline taxes funding roads (although many would argue we should ahve implemented higher gas taxes a long time ago.. buit that's another subject)
A use fee is a regressive tax... and it's most unfair to those at the bottom... who often have little choice about where they live and where they work....
A use fee would be ok I suppose if accomponied by a yearly refund or credit for lower income people....
I want to make it as easy as possible for the average person to have and get to their job....
citiprank Thu Mar 26 09:45:27 2009 CDT #
Broward Horne says:
"I am so stealing this. Bravo."
-----
I'm spent a lot of time since 2004 trying to understand information models and why certain things occur, my primary focus being peer-to-peer (pure free market) versus hierarchical (monopoly/oligopoly). The Enron failure (and higher electricty cost) was predictable from the point of view of transaction costs. Free markets are not the answer to all problems, they are a model which works particularly well in some situations and poorly in others.
Ultimately, all this is applicable to software design decisions/failures as well as orgranizational structure & failure. A crude explanation of how centralized systems are better at hiding information, ergo they better support corruption -
http://www.realmeme.com/roller/page/realmeme?entry=conspiracies_as_a_function_of3
I drew that three years ago. I've got a better model I'm still working on that's based on schramm (that one is, too but it's not apparent).
http://www.realmeme.com/roller/page/realmeme?entry=reflective_schramm_model
My theory is that organizational structure "evolves" faster than culture. You can trace the great empires back to agrarian cultures (peer-to-peer economies) which formed a culture of integrity. Organizational structure evolved into complex systerms for better efficiency and still worked well because the underlying culture was still "peer-to-peer" based. Eventually, culture "evolves" to exploit the pecularities of hierarchical systems, i.e. corruption, and the model starts breaking down because it's not longer efficient but exploitive.
Broward Horne Thu Mar 26 09:47:45 2009 CDT #
Max says:
<i>A use fee is a regressive tax... and it's most unfair to those at the bottom... who often have little choice about where they live and where they work.... </i>
Use fees never go away. When was the last time a toll booth was removed in this country?
Max Thu Mar 26 09:49:44 2009 CDT #
citiprank says:
Soi here's my take on transportation...
First of all the govt (who is in theory US) will always have social goals as part of policy.. that's just the way it is..
What I think is that society benefits when people can get to places of employment quickly and easily and with little cost.
Don't we want to make it easy as possible for people to get to work and earn money so they can contribute to the tax base? A road use fee would simply hurt the people at the bottom who have the least choice over the type of vehicle they own and where they live....
I dunno.... I am a big fan of rail transit for various reasons.......
citiprank Thu Mar 26 09:51:08 2009 CDT #
Blackhalo says:
"I dunno.... I am a big fan of rail transit for various reasons......."
A visit to europe, sure makes a good arguement for it.
Reminds me of Big Auto buying up public transportation for dismantlment.
Parent Post
Blackhalo Thu Mar 26 09:56:55 2009 CDT #
1 currency now [yogi] :) says:
Ken, Lloyd, Vikram, and Jamie, at secret meeting in Ben's black helicopter:
--So we're running with the profitable quarter story, and we'll start payments next month, unless, of course, "they won't let us". Timmy's on board, right? We pass the stress test but he tells us "off the record" to hold reserves for now, just to be safe. The public always forgets these things even without a war. Taxpayer fatigue.
--The hedges are in place, right? We're all tied at the hip. Liddy got a lid on things at AIG? Throw 'em a scapegoat, set up some Harvard kid with coke and hookers. Timmy can break the case himself. "Now we've cleaned house, just a last number to safeguard taxpayer money, all the previous programs were too small... yada yada..."
---When can set the new fees? Inflation and regulation and whatnot.
---Gotta consolidate a little more leverage. It should be made clear only the biggest banks acting together can have a chance at lending enough to main street to get up to speed. And no more Lehman Brothers, at all costs.
---We get that FDIC guarantee going, that might buy us 6 months.
---Ben's got acronyms you never heard of, he makes em up as he goes along.
---The king of AAA arbitrage. We really ought to find some way to take care of him.
--- Get him a book deal, we'll give em out to new accounts, write em off...
---I think we're set. Tin foil hats on for safety, the blogosphere's got some digital network...
1 currency now [yogi] :) Thu Mar 26 09:52:59 2009 CDT #
popeye says:
I may have to back down vis a vie the fuel efficiency argument, but where I live, if one state has a high gasoline tax, truckers simply fill up at the border and bring even more weight over my state's roads. Give me a uniform nationwide gasoline tax and I still have state specific distribution problems.
As for making it easy for j6pac, I suggest you merely turn the employer subsidy argument on its head. If there were no subsidy, but a use tax instead, employers would have to increase wages to compensate.
..but I neither hold office nor expertise in this area; ergo, I bow out.
popeye Thu Mar 26 09:53:42 2009 CDT #
Comrade Bear (tj and the bear) says:
BSR,
I'd have preferred seizing them FDIC-style and let the chips fall where they may. At least you wouldn't have people that shouldn't even have jobs complaining about not getting their damned bonuses.
Comrade Bear (tj and the bear) Thu Mar 26 09:54:42 2009 CDT #
Black Star Ranch says:
One of the big reasons I moved from OC was the damned toll roads - screw 'em. I refused to get one of those EZ Pass things and the change collectors would steal you blind. The highway tax collected at the pump wasn't enough - I moved to a place with 2-stop lights and no tolls.
Black Star Ranch Thu Mar 26 09:55:18 2009 CDT #
Anonymous says:
March 26 (Bloomberg) -- The U.S. economy shrank in the fourth quarter more than previously estimated, leading to the biggest plunge in corporate earnings in a half century and underscoring why companies are slashing payrolls this year.
Gross domestic product contracted at a 6.3 percent annual rate from October to December, the weakest since 1982, the Commerce Department said today in Washington. Profits dropped 16.5 percent from the prior quarter, the most since 1953.
Anonymous Thu Mar 26 09:55:29 2009 CDT #
Blackhalo says:
"Gross domestic product contracted at a 6.3 percent annual rate from October to December"
That is going to play havoc with the Debt outstanding/GDP numbers. To infinity, and beyond!
Parent Post
Blackhalo Thu Mar 26 10:02:11 2009 CDT #
Lobbyi$t Ben Dover says:
"Use fees never go away. When was the last time a toll booth was removed in this country?"
Boulder turnpike in Colorado in the 80's. Back when government kept it's word.
Lobbyi$t Ben Dover Thu Mar 26 09:55:42 2009 CDT #
citiprank says:
what's funny about "pure free markets" is that capitalism tends to monopolies in most industires... I mean the trend always seems to be towards "consolidation"
Personally I think this country would do a lot better if we stopped subsidizing big business and focused more on supporting small businesses/entrepreneurs.
I regularly work with fortune 500 clients and government clients... I can tell you that above a certain size the corporate bureaucracy and govt bureaucracy are very hard to distinguish from one another
citiprank Thu Mar 26 09:55:43 2009 CDT #
Blackhalo says:
"what's funny about "pure free markets" is that capitalism tends to monopolies in most industires... I mean the trend always seems to be towards "consolidation""
That is why you can not have a "free market" without, Fair Markets. Minimal gov regulation to prove a fair and competitive playing field is a pre-requisite for functional capitalism.
Parent Post
Blackhalo Thu Mar 26 09:59:20 2009 CDT #
Morocco Bama says:
Well, this is good news for Shanty Town Developers.
Morocco Bama Thu Mar 26 09:57:36 2009 CDT #
citiprank says:
Would they popeye? Or would they just ship the jobs somewhere else?
There will always be local govts willing to subsidize them...
Look at the japanese car manufacturers in the southern states.. funny how no one ever mentions the gigantic subsidies they received to set up down there.....
citiprank Thu Mar 26 09:57:46 2009 CDT #
1 currency now [yogi] :) says:
Broward round numbers are fine, but if dawg complains about subway subsidies I'm going to price air pollution to the penny. :-$
1 currency now [yogi] :) Thu Mar 26 09:59:51 2009 CDT #
citiprank says:
"A visit to europe, sure makes a good arguement for it. "
That's one of the reasons... on my last trip to europe (2 weeks for business/pleasure in germany, netherlands, france) I took exactly ONE cab.... and I did high speed rail whenever possible... what a way to travel...... 100x better than air transit.
The frankfurt train system is crazy amazing
Funny thing.. in germany their subways and commuter trains dont even have turnstyles.. supposedly there's a huge fine if they catch you riding without a ticket so no one does it
citiprank Thu Mar 26 10:00:31 2009 CDT #
Doc at the Radar Station says:
<i>Ultimately, all this is applicable to software design decisions/failures as well as orgranizational structure & failure. A crude explanation of how centralized systems are better at hiding information, ergo they better support corruption - </i>
That also ties in with Adam Smith's theory (I believe) that ideally, with perfect information all profits would go to zero. By extension, if information becomes more available, profits should decrease. In order to increase profits, you would have to make information purposefully more complex and opaque.
Doc at the Radar Station Thu Mar 26 10:01:09 2009 CDT #
Blackhalo says:
"In order to increase profits, you would have to make information purposefully more complex and opaque."
Say via a complex derivitives scheme, assembeld in some banks back room, involving indecipherable formuals to hide risk, that leverages securities built on an illiquid asset? If only you could get the ratings agencies on board...
Parent Post
Blackhalo Thu Mar 26 10:08:58 2009 CDT #
Doc at the Radar Station says:
<i>Say via a complex derivitives scheme, assembeld in some banks back room, involving indecipherable formuals to hide risk, that leverages securities built on an illiquid asset? If only you could get the ratings agencies on board... </i>
Precisely, I was reading the Wired article yesterday somebody linked to about the "Gaussian copula" and how it was fatally flawed, the guy that came up with it knew it had limitations, but the quants went nuts with it. There were warnings, etc. I'm beginning to wonder if Fraud is something that is genetically encoded...
Parent Post
Doc at the Radar Station Thu Mar 26 10:15:02 2009 CDT #
C. Darwin says:
- maybe not 'fraud', specifically, but 'deception' has been noted as an evolutionary survival technique. Admittedly, the distinction is pretty fine.
Parent Post
C. Darwin Thu Mar 26 13:59:36 2009 CDT #
cd says:
ot- FXP sure looks ripe right now...scaling in....
cd Thu Mar 26 10:01:18 2009 CDT #
citiprank says:
LOL.. good one yogi
citiprank Thu Mar 26 10:01:38 2009 CDT #
Broward Horne says:
One function of Depressions is that they discompose oligopolies. Oligopoliies (depending on your point of view and size of ego) create pricing anomalies because they can exercise pricing power. Atlas Shrugged is based on the concept that a few "talented" individuals can exercise their own pricing power. Decomposing oligopolies shifts the background environment back to more flexible components that probably map "price" to "resource" better.
I mean, honestly, is there anybody in the U.S. besides Hank Paulson that thinks Hank Paulson created $500 million worth of "value"?
Broward Horne Thu Mar 26 10:02:32 2009 CDT #
Blackhalo says:
"I mean, honestly, is there anybody in the U.S. besides Hank Paulson that thinks Hank Paulson created $500 million worth of "value"?"
GS shareholders consider it money well spent, I am sure... But only as a result of his T-Sec role.
Parent Post
Blackhalo Thu Mar 26 10:05:32 2009 CDT #
citiprank says:
"I mean, honestly, is there anybody in the U.S. besides Hank Paulson that thinks Hank Paulson created $500 million worth of "value"? "
I think Hank Paulson has been a big net negative overall... as in if there way any justice he'd be working the rest of his life for free to pay his debt to society
:)
citiprank Thu Mar 26 10:04:25 2009 CDT #
ac says:
I'm spent a lot of time since 2004 trying to understand information models and why certain things occur, my primary focus being peer-to-peer (pure free market) versus hierarchical (monopoly/oligopoly). The Enron failure (and higher electricty cost) was predictable from the point of view of transaction costs. Free markets are not the answer to all problems, they are a model which works particularly well in some situations and poorly in others.
One of the reasons I frequently bring up morality even though it comes across as non-scientific is that I think it demonstratably is not and perhaps desribes the most difficult problem facing these kinds of arrangements:
A "rational" participant will generally act to benefit him/herself at the expense of the system. I don't think this problem can be addressed simply with more authority and regulation because that simply creates even bigger opportunities for these types of "immoral" participants to abuse the system (from a position of authority).
I guess the question is can you set up a system of competing and self-policing interests in such a way that they regulate themselves and come up with socially beneficial behaviors even when they're composed by purely rational participants.
Or do you fundamentally need a moral ideology, which necessarily entails irrational beliefs and motives on the part of those individuals.
ac Thu Mar 26 10:04:26 2009 CDT #
citiprank says:
Assuming humans are "rational" participants in anything is a very big assumption that isn't exactly backed up by available data
citiprank Thu Mar 26 10:07:43 2009 CDT #
Comrade Bear (tj and the bear) says:
citiprank,
Roads benefit everyone, whereas mass transit benefits very few. The inherent inefficiency of fixed point-to-point movements of specific cattle (er, people) capacities. Low-level employees may ride, and medium-levels will park-n-ride when the route suits them, but jobs aren't centralized. [Only 1 year in 20 have I worked downtown.]
OTOH, business is all about the roads, and if you want any employment and tax revenue you have to support business. Roads are infrastructure -- a necessary component of a functioning society. Mass transit? LOL!
Comrade Bear (tj and the bear) Thu Mar 26 10:08:06 2009 CDT #
Blackhalo says:
"Roads benefit everyone, whereas mass transit benefits very few."
Really? Allowing production a cheaper method to centralize labor, making that labor more competitve globally, only benefits labor?
Parent Post
Blackhalo Thu Mar 26 10:14:10 2009 CDT #
Mannwich says:
Interesting. Numbers do seem remarkably consistent. Am I being too conspiratorial with this thought? Or not conspiratorial enough?
Mannwich Thu Mar 26 10:08:54 2009 CDT #
Comrade Bear (tj and the bear) says:
Personally I think this country would do a lot better if we stopped subsidizing big business and focused more on supporting small businesses/entrepreneurs.
That's why I cringe every time they start batting around the idea of service taxes. Even the Governator's been pushing some here in CA.
Comrade Bear (tj and the bear) Thu Mar 26 10:11:24 2009 CDT #
citiprank says:
"Roads benefit everyone, whereas mass transit benefits very few. The inherent inefficiency of fixed point-to-point movements of specific cattle (er, people) capacities. Low-level employees may ride, and medium-levels will park-n-ride when the route suits them, but jobs aren't centralized. [Only 1 year in 20 have I worked downtown.]
OTOH, business is all about the roads, and if you want any employment and tax revenue you have to support business. Roads are infrastructure -- a necessary component of a functioning society. Mass transit? LOL!"
Gotta disagree with a lot of that.....,. roads aren't very useful to people who don't own a car. or who can't drive for some reason or who can't afford a car.
I don't know where you live.. but what you say isn't even close to true where I live (chicago)...
citiprank Thu Mar 26 10:13:23 2009 CDT #
Comrade Byzantine_Ruins says:
[Only 1 year in 20 have I worked downtown.]
Do you wonder if your concept of problem and solution might be a prisoner to your context?
Comrade Byzantine_Ruins Thu Mar 26 10:14:13 2009 CDT #
scone says:
These charts bring back bad memories of the 1970's. High inflation, high unemployment, the tail end of the war, and too many people on bad drugs. The kids don't believe me when I tell them how bad it was, they just see the clothes and the music.
scone Thu Mar 26 10:15:30 2009 CDT #
citiprank says:
I work AT HOME.. so I use neither roads or mass transit.... so I think I have a pretty neutral opinion.
Really there are a lot of hidden costs to roads..... People only think of the land and the maintannce.. but there is also pollution, property loss/injuries/deaths (due to accidents), legal system costs... policing costs... I mean the list goes on and on... not to mention roads are quite dangerous compared to other forms of transit
citiprank Thu Mar 26 10:17:47 2009 CDT #
Black Star Ranch says:
Even as a kid in SoCal I thought that IF they stopped building the freeways, people would have to live closer to work. No rocket science - just fact.
Black Star Ranch Thu Mar 26 10:18:47 2009 CDT #
scone says:
Apologies if this has been posted before, but CR is on Roubini's site!
http://www.rgemonitor.com/us-monitor/256170/is_the_worst_behind_us
scone Thu Mar 26 10:20:32 2009 CDT #
Black Star Ranch says:
"These charts bring back bad memories of the 1970's."
....outside of 1967-1970, I can't remember much till about the eighties...
Black Star Ranch Thu Mar 26 10:22:18 2009 CDT #
popeye says:
Doc,
You might enjoy this NPR interview with Frank Partnoy re: derivatives and how they were/are marketed:
http://www.npr.org/templates/player/mediaPlayer.html?action=1&t=1&islist=false&id=102325715&m=102325958
popeye Thu Mar 26 10:22:39 2009 CDT #
Doc at the Radar Station says:
Popeye, thanks for the link!
Parent Post
Doc at the Radar Station Thu Mar 26 10:27:40 2009 CDT #
julieng says:
this place is getting very quiet
scary silence ...
julieng Thu Mar 26 10:22:47 2009 CDT #
CRbot says:
New Thread: Geithner Calls for ‘New Rules of the Game’
http://www.calculatedriskblog.com/2009/03/geithner-calls-for-new-rules-of-game.html ( 3 comments )
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CRbot: Call me HAL.
CRbot Thu Mar 26 10:22:48 2009 CDT #
Mannwich says:
Comrade Bear (tj and the bear) says:
Today, 10:08:06 AM
<tbody>
“citiprank,
Roads benefit everyone, whereas mass transit benefits very few. The inherent inefficiency of fixed point-to-point movements of specific cattle (er, people) capacities. Low-level employees may ride, and medium-levels will park-n-ride when the route suits them, but jobs aren't centralized. [Only 1 year in 20 have I worked downtown.]
OTOH, business is all about the roads, and if you want any employment and tax revenue you have to support business. Roads are infrastructure -- a necessary component of a functioning society. Mass transit? LOL!
</tbody>
That depends on where you're talking about. In NYC and other densely populated areas in the Northeast, Mass Transit is obviously far more impactful on everyone there. Here in the Twin Cities, the anti-mass transit yahoos said that nobody would ride the light rail when it was built and they were wrong. It's far more heavily traveled than anyone imagined.
Mannwich Thu Mar 26 10:29:19 2009 CDT #
Comrade Bear (tj and the bear) says:
Do you wonder if your concept of problem and solution might be a prisoner to your context?
Not at all. Just citing a personal anecdote FWIW. As a consultant I get around town a lot.
Besides, mass transit itself is dependent upon roads. A bus doesn't exactly fly, and train stations are often 'park-n-ride'. Yes, some big cities in the east are navigable by a combination of walking & subways, but those are more the exception than the rule.
The question goes back to subsidies. Why support a losing proposition? Is cheap labor the goal? Perhaps if mass transit wasn't there then wages would have to support the ability to own a car.
p.s.: Don't go all Nurby on us or you'll get bitten by the Dawg.
Comrade Bear (tj and the bear) Thu Mar 26 10:32:21 2009 CDT #
Guest says:
Our money is debt created when we and corporations borrow. It represents our labor promised for things not yet done. It has to be continually expanded to cover the interest that is not created with the original principal. There is constantly more demand for money than is present during the normal cycle reducing the risk of hyperinflation while at the same time insuring inflation is contantly greater than the savings rate. No consistent savings is possible in such a system for the average citizen. He/she is constantly going to be on the short side of the stick as money is expanded faster than his savings. Bubbles such as housing or equities will give him the illlusion of savings for awhile. So he is herded from one side of the corrall to another. If he decides to be responsible and ignore the bubble du jour he will again be denied his fair share. During a deflationary period the central bank will aggressivley devalue the debt load in society and ramp up the speed of the inflationary money cycle so that he is again running at breakneck speed on an incline to stay where he is. If he falters or someone in his family gets sick or injured he is thrown off and has to beg the government for scraps and trickle down from the high and mighty. The difference with commodity based money is that the borrowing is done from labor done in the past. It winds up in the hands of the average person for his labor and he can make a decision on the risks he will take. It must be taxed fairly or he will not give it up. Our system is borrowing collectively from the future. In borrowing from the future the average person has no say where the mighty will place his future labor. The unseen inflation tax takes it out of his hands even though he does not spend it. He has no 5th ammendment right regarding how he made his money. If he does not file his taxes he is thrown in jail. So under threat of duress he has to file which goes against centuries of common law regarding forced confessions. It is also taken out in payroll taxes before he gets to look at it. This is the invisable chain that makes him the the debt slave of the government/banking industry. His future labor may be used in unnecessary wars or complex financial instruments or to get even more benefits on both sides of the the political financial sytem. Which system would be more biodiverse and would increase the likelihood of stabilty. Read our history. It is constantly a war of centralization for the benefits of a few and against the expansion of freedom and stabilty for the many. The loss of freedom is always disguised in the tyranny of good intentions.
Guest Thu Mar 26 10:32:36 2009 CDT #
Anak says:
Doc, I'll have to look up that Wired article. "Gaussian copula" and from whence it came . . .
just today in HK the SCMP ran a silly op-ed trying to say that Americans were blaming a certain theoretician of this construct (who happened to be Chinese) for underpinning the excessive leverage and risk taking that has brought the entire world low. Scapegoating the other, as it were. Maybe this was the piece that set the guy off.
When I read the headline I was expecting some reasoned defence of mercantilism and acorn accumulation. And got this instead!
Things are getting wacky worldwide.
Anak Thu Mar 26 10:33:15 2009 CDT #
Lobbyi$t Ben Dover says:
Mass transit does not deliver goods and serices as roads do. Out side of cities mass transportian is not even an option. Then you have private support jobs from car sales to service and repair. Mass trans consumes taxes as where private transportation produes taxes.
Lobbyi$t Ben Dover Thu Mar 26 10:43:46 2009 CDT #
Magical Thinking says:
Use fees never go away. When was the last time a toll booth was removed in this country?
---------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
Yes, but the excuse that it provides jobs are-toll booth workers-where are they? Tolls- less/more? Selling taxpayer funded "public" roads to "entities" for profit? This country is still at war with itself......
Magical Thinking Thu Mar 26 10:43:48 2009 CDT #
END