Comments for Stock Market Update
Nemo says:
My strategy of buying BGU daily at every open and selling at the close seems to be working great.
Nemo Tue Mar 17 15:19:40 2009 CDT #
Hymns for the Lord says:
Technically-savvy folks,
PLEASE can you tell me what to do to make the threading setting remain on for all comment threads? I go to the controls and turn it on, but when I'm reading the comments for the next post, it's back to threading off. I have to turn threading on for the comments of each post. I'd like this to be set once and for all.
I've asked CR but not heard back. Perhaps he's fed up with threading problems. I wouldn't blame him. :)
Parent Post
Hymns for the Lord Tue Mar 17 17:12:49 2009 CDT #
RhodesianGreenbackinAZ says:
Numero Uno?
RhodesianGreenbackinAZ Tue Mar 17 15:21:40 2009 CDT #
Anonymous says:
foist!
Anonymous Tue Mar 17 15:22:05 2009 CDT #
CRbot says:
This comment thread has been HALO-IZED by CRbot.
http://realize.org/cr/halokit.php?halourl=http://www.haloscan.com/comments/calculatedrisk/8547944944472484854
CRbot Tue Mar 17 15:22:06 2009 CDT #
Rob Dawg says:
I see Ghost Pigs™
Rob Dawg Tue Mar 17 15:22:25 2009 CDT #
MaryAnn says:
I can't see, so I declare me first.
MaryAnn Tue Mar 17 15:22:31 2009 CDT #
Anonymous says:
It's hard to remain dry when everybody else jumps into the pool. I think we have another leg down.
Anonymous Tue Mar 17 15:24:04 2009 CDT #
RhodesianGreenbackinAZ says:
It would be cool if the market had bottomed, if the banks were on their way to being repaired, and if as Bernanke stated "the recession ended late in 2009."
Dating a model would be cool, too.
RhodesianGreenbackinAZ Tue Mar 17 15:26:20 2009 CDT #
Comrade Dazed and Amused says:
It's stunning how the curve is retracing the 1929 curve. Me thinks that there is still a long way to go down.
Comrade Dazed and Amused Tue Mar 17 15:26:55 2009 CDT #
CRbot says:
The Latest from Mish:
Judge Rules Vallejo Can Void Union Contracts
CRbot Tue Mar 17 15:28:12 2009 CDT #
Sexy Derivative says:
A.I.G. has so far declined to identify the employees receiving the bonuses, some of whom are thought to be foreigners who worked out of offices in London.
This ought to go over well.
Sexy Derivative Tue Mar 17 15:28:40 2009 CDT #
z says:
crookeder then a dogs hind legs.
z Tue Mar 17 15:29:10 2009 CDT #
Punditry says:
“it pales in comparison to the over $100 billion of bailout money that went in the front door of AIG and right out the back door to its counterparties.
Fin co's generally pay out up to 50% of their top line rev's in compensation. So , gulp, $50 billion to insolvent institutions ended up in the guys pocket that's snub's his nose at you as he fly's by in his 911turbo on his way to Nobu.
Punditry Tue Mar 17 15:29:58 2009 CDT #
nova says:
Today I wrote about "Burners" in my CR story. The idea actually appeals to me on one level. Screw them. Burn their office towers, malls, houses, all it. They want to be rich? Try doing it when everything associated with your company is a smoking cinder.
Thank god we can elect men and women who understand this frustration and are searching for ways to fix it.
nova Tue Mar 17 15:30:44 2009 CDT #
ac says:
FWIW oil is up about 35% in the past month. Kind of counteracts the "benefits" of a 15% rally in stocks.
ac Tue Mar 17 15:31:11 2009 CDT #
nades says:
Unless you're selling oil! ;)
Parent Post
nades Tue Mar 17 15:41:37 2009 CDT #
nova says:
Sexy Derivative says A.I.G. has so far declined to identify the employees receiving the blah foreigners...
ROFL.
That is European Ruling Monarchy (pre 1914) Style Balls...
nova Tue Mar 17 15:32:22 2009 CDT #
CRbot says:
The Latest from Jesse:
No Sidebar Chart Updates Tonight
CRbot Tue Mar 17 15:34:20 2009 CDT #
Hal says:
The four bears graph makes it clear this bear trap parallels almost exactly a prior bear trap in the 1929 case. That then turned and went MUCH further down and so will this one. Mark my words.
Hal Tue Mar 17 15:37:36 2009 CDT #
Blackhalo says:
"That then turned and went MUCH further down and so will this one."
I see no evidence that anything has actually been fixed or resolved with regard to home prices, the equities based on them nor the insolvency of the banks. No new regulation to my knowledge has been implemented to prevent the abuses of the past. I only see greater risk and less value. As such I have to agree with your assessment that the longs in this rally are going to take it in the shorts.
Parent Post
Blackhalo Tue Mar 17 17:06:08 2009 CDT #
nova says:
Mark my words.
Hal
Ok I marked them. Can I underline also?
nova Tue Mar 17 15:38:56 2009 CDT #
nova says:
Mark my words.
Hal
Ok I marked them. Can I underline also?
nova Tue Mar 17 15:39:00 2009 CDT #
Hal says:
Re AIG Obama has been very maladroit as President. Instead of being radical as people wanted he has pandered to his supposed enemies and has lost most of his steam. He should take whatever steps necessary to snatch back those bonuses from AIG, but he won't because he is scared of Wall Street and a COWARD.
Hal Tue Mar 17 15:39:33 2009 CDT #
doug r says:
I think it's the Chicago-style politics-very deep dish. You don't flail about and threaten, you step sideways, stick the shiv in and smile :-D
Parent Post
doug r Tue Mar 17 18:37:25 2009 CDT #
nova says:
Mark my words.
Hal
Ok I marked them. Can I underline also?
nova Tue Mar 17 15:39:59 2009 CDT #
Attorneys in Love says:
Here we go....
CNNMoney.com
NJ AG Sues Lehman Executives, Dirs Over $118 Million In Investment Losses
----------------------------------------------
Parent Post
Attorneys in Love Tue Mar 17 16:20:17 2009 CDT #
Yancey Ward says:
CR,
Again, I would start the present bear from last September.
Yancey Ward Tue Mar 17 15:40:06 2009 CDT #
Guest says:
The past 2 weeks have been brutal on the shorts. The momentum traders always get killed and they deserve to. So far in 2009, being short has been the momentum trade. Silly people. Time to give back all those gains....
Guest Tue Mar 17 15:40:52 2009 CDT #
Anonymous says:
Look out for that next step. It's a doozy.
Anonymous Tue Mar 17 15:42:32 2009 CDT #
reptillian says:
When you've lost 50%, you have to make 100% to break even.
It can take a l-o-n-g time to make 100%; and what did inflation do in the meantime?
reptillian Tue Mar 17 15:43:47 2009 CDT #
Counterpointer says:
Can't help thinkin about mortgage pig when I see that chart...
C
Counterpointer Tue Mar 17 15:44:49 2009 CDT #
popeye says:
so, if we are experiencing deflation, can I do nothing and get even any faster ?
popeye Tue Mar 17 15:46:09 2009 CDT #
nova says:
Take the $ and run
Troubled insurance giant American International Group paid bonuses of $1 million or more to 73 employees, including 11 who no longer work for the company, New York Attorney ...
nova Tue Mar 17 15:46:46 2009 CDT #
Guest says:
Take the $ and run
Troubled insurance giant American International Group paid bonuses of $1 million or more to 73 employees, including 11 who no longer work for the company, New York Attorney ...
-----------------------------------------------------
Parent Post
Guest Tue Mar 17 16:05:49 2009 CDT #
Guest says:
AIG
Abundance In Goldman
Parent Post
Guest Tue Mar 17 16:06:16 2009 CDT #
Basel Too says:
Problem with the "efficient market" hypothesis is that the objectives of the individual market investors are so wildly disparate. Three weeks ago, we had a huge influx of retail shorters. I think they've been chased from the market. Who's left in this market? If it's primarily institutional investors who *must* invest in equities, then this rally will have some legs. If you're already down 95% in BAC or C, is there really an impetus to liquidate, especially given that the USG will not nationalize?
Basel Too Tue Mar 17 15:47:35 2009 CDT #
Dead_Monkey_Bounce says:
reptillian, why, that's ridiculous. You can make 100% in just eight years at a 10% return, and there are EXTREMELY TRUSTWORTHY people that I can point you to who can get you that EVERY YEAR!
Dead_Monkey_Bounce Tue Mar 17 15:48:56 2009 CDT #
Yancey Ward says:
I got my checkbook at hand, so tell us!!! If it looks good, I will transfer my Madoff account tomorrow morning!
Parent Post
Yancey Ward Tue Mar 17 15:53:14 2009 CDT #
reptillian says:
I want 12% .. that way I double my money every 6 years!
Parent Post
reptillian Tue Mar 17 15:54:26 2009 CDT #
Dan says:
Please do.
Parent Post
Dan Tue Mar 17 19:00:23 2009 CDT #
Kung Fu Panda says:
"Barclays' lawyers, Freshfields, worked into the early hours to force the Guardian to remove the documents from the website. They argued that the documents were the property of Barclays and could only have been leaked by someone who acquired them wrongfully and in breach of confidentiality agreements.
The Guardian's solicitor, Geraldine Proudler, was woken by the judge at 2am and asked to argue the Guardian's case by telephone. Around 2.31am, Mr Justice Ouseley issued an order for the documents to be removed from the Guardian's website."
Hard to argue coherently at 2 in the morning and the judge is predisposed against you...thank goodness for the internets...
Kung Fu Panda Tue Mar 17 15:52:24 2009 CDT #
Black Star Ranch says:
....with inflation, or worse, hyperinflation, the dollar decreases in value. That means prices start going thru the roof, correct? Stuff like my generic raisin bran was .99-cents for a 12-oz box (two weeks ago). Yesterday it was .99-cents, same SIZE BOX but WITH ONLY 8-OZ of cereal. Wouldn't equities also go up (like the last 4-5 days) if the dollar was going into the toilet or am I an idiot?
Black Star Ranch Tue Mar 17 15:53:16 2009 CDT #
Comrade Byzantine_Ruins says:
Hal says:
Today, 4:39:33 PM
Re AIG Obama has been very maladroit as President. Instead of being radical as people wanted he has pandered to his supposed enemies and has lost most of his steam.
Sometimes it's more profitable to kiss the mat than win the fight.
Comrade Byzantine_Ruins Tue Mar 17 15:54:11 2009 CDT #
PonziMCC says:
Bernard Madoff’s wife has declared her Palm Beach, Florida, estate as her primary residence, a move that may shield the $9.4 million home from creditors.
our glorious leader's will dis-allow this obvious ex post facto decision, right....right?
PonziMCC Tue Mar 17 15:54:47 2009 CDT #
doug r says:
If I was judging this case, I would allow her to keep the $1 million dollar place. The rest would get seized as proceeds of crime. :-$
Parent Post
doug r Tue Mar 17 18:44:03 2009 CDT #
unirealist says:
The derivatives/CDS problem hasn't been solved at all. Notional total of global derivatives is now estimated at 1000 trillion. As long as the credit markets fall, the currency markets are volatile, and the global economy sinks, CDS losses mount, margin calls continue, and central banks have to keep pumping taxpayer cash into the derivatives hole, which is for all intents and purposes bottomless.
In other words, equity prices are a distraction from what really matters.
unirealist Tue Mar 17 15:57:34 2009 CDT #
cd says:
Nemo, I bought ICE this week with similar strategy....thanks for that symbol..
oil is up, financials up...man is it spring 07 again...seems like thier alterating to keep rally going...
cd Tue Mar 17 15:57:38 2009 CDT #
Basel Too says:
Wouldn't equities also go up (like the last 4-5 days) if the dollar was going into the toilet or am I an idiot?
That's the point ac was making by comparing the rally in oil vs. equities. However, even with monetary inflation, it's still possible to have price deflation if there's no demand for the product...
Basel Too Tue Mar 17 15:58:25 2009 CDT #
ShortCourage says:
Gadzooks! Amazon.com is a glorified retailer. Very glorified, with a PE of just under 50!!! And this is not a company whose PE you can argue is high due to sub-par earnings (to recover marvelously after this slight downturn). No, they are plain and simple, a bubble stock once again.
ShortCourage Tue Mar 17 15:59:28 2009 CDT #
Anonymous says:
Amazon is used by the majority of young people to shop. IMO, this is why they are so successful. Be careful shorting Amazon.
Parent Post
Anonymous Tue Mar 17 16:45:47 2009 CDT #
Black Star Ranch says:
....LOL....let me rephrase the last question: Am I an idiot re: inflation?
Black Star Ranch Tue Mar 17 16:00:03 2009 CDT #
cd says:
BSR-I'm still extremely distraught over the 1/2 gallon Dreyers now 1 1/2 quarts...that's my pony...
cd Tue Mar 17 16:00:12 2009 CDT #
reptillian says:
I have seen the Dreyer's on sale for as low as $1.99.
It is $3.99 now. I think it's Safeway's loss leader.
Parent Post
reptillian Tue Mar 17 16:14:52 2009 CDT #
ShortCourage says:
Amazon.com is a very glorified retailer. Glorified to the tune of a (ttm) PE ratio of almost 50!!! The last of a dying breed of bubble stocks??
Apparently not all stocks are cheap, yet.
ShortCourage Tue Mar 17 16:03:20 2009 CDT #
Anonymous says:
We're all crooks now! Is it a surprise that this country's neighborhoods are being filled with drugs? Even the state of California is considering legalizing marijuana. Hmmm, I wonder what our president thinks of this?
Anonymous Tue Mar 17 16:03:28 2009 CDT #
doug r says:
8-)
Parent Post
doug r Tue Mar 17 18:46:08 2009 CDT #
ZackAttack says:
I'm basically long oil over short Dow and short treasuries here.
Thinking you want to reload on the short side at about S&P 800-805. That's about where the 50 DMA will be when we hit maximum oversold. It's also the bottom of that triangle. Give it about 5% from there.
ZackAttack Tue Mar 17 16:05:03 2009 CDT #
Lucifer says:
Oh.. yes. We never solved it to any worthwhile degree. :-D
//The derivatives/CDS problem hasn't been solved at all. Notional total of global derivatives is now estimated at 1000 trillion. //
Lucifer Tue Mar 17 16:07:44 2009 CDT #
Lucifer says:
That is such an understatement.
//Problem with the "efficient market" hypothesis is that the objectives of the individual market investors are so wildly disparate.//
Lucifer Tue Mar 17 16:10:14 2009 CDT #
Jes says:
Those poor AIG folks need a better word than "bonus". Bonus implies that you did something useful and good, that you should be rewarded for a job well done. Bringing your company to its knees is pretty much not a job well done.
Jes Tue Mar 17 16:10:24 2009 CDT #
Dust Bowling for Dollars says:
Arrogance Inspires Greed.
Dust Bowling for Dollars Tue Mar 17 16:10:34 2009 CDT #
punditry says:
,i>I'm basically long oil over short Dow and short treasuries here.
the texas hedge
punditry Tue Mar 17 16:12:08 2009 CDT #
Basel Too says:
House Bill Revives ‘Cash-for-Clunkers’ for Car Sales
Consumers could get vouchers of as much as $5,000 for buying new vehicles under a “cash-for- clunkers” proposal aimed at jump-starting auto sales, U.S. Representative Betty Sutton said.
Her plan, which would give the vouchers to those trading in older vehicles for more fuel-efficient models, revives a concept that failed in Congress earlier this year.
“U.S. auto sales have fallen,” Sutton, a Democrat from Ohio, said in a statement. “This trend, which affects all automakers, must be quickly reversed.”
Basel Too Tue Mar 17 16:12:42 2009 CDT #
reptillian says:
Market Offering a Generational Opportunity
reptillian Tue Mar 17 16:13:27 2009 CDT #
Lucifer says:
But certain words sound better than others.
Doctor sounds better than narcissistic incompetent blackmailer.
Lawyer sounds better than sociopathic sophist.
MBA sounds better that myopic sociopath.
//Those poor AIG folks need a better word than "bonus".//
Lucifer Tue Mar 17 16:15:04 2009 CDT #
ac says:
That's the point ac was making by comparing the rally in oil vs. equities. However, even with monetary inflation, it's still possible to have price deflation if there's no demand for the product...
Right, but the idea driving the federal reserve in the past has been that if you print enough money you create sort of a panic that drives people out of dollars and creates artificial demand for various products and assets.
I.E. the whole point of monetary policy is to induce risk taking behavior which manifests as demand.
I think history will judge that this works in a strict sense. But the sort of irrational behavior and panic spending it generates structural deterioration in the economy that offsets the short-term benefits from the spending.
The wealth in free market economies is generated by the aggregate decisions of individuals and individual businesses. By attempting to take the place of this decision making process, the Federal Reserve has degraded the market's ability to make just the sort of decisions that are essential to generating wealth.
ac Tue Mar 17 16:15:36 2009 CDT #
Lucifer says:
Yes, it does! Just not the way they think..
//Market Offering a Generational Opportunity//
Lucifer Tue Mar 17 16:16:17 2009 CDT #
AIG exec says:
Bringing your company to its knees is pretty much not a job well done
who's on their knees, B****?
AIG exec Tue Mar 17 16:17:01 2009 CDT #
Guest says:
Bonus
Bone Us (get it, huh huh?)
Parent Post
Guest Tue Mar 17 16:49:03 2009 CDT #
reptillian says:
True confession: I bought AA this morning for $5.45 and sold it for $5.50.
reptillian Tue Mar 17 16:17:45 2009 CDT #
reptillian says:
We have "earnings" coming.
I think it was today, that NUE mentioned that the outlook, going
forward, is awful. It was being sold when I looked at it. I wonder
whether Amazon is into cookie-jar accounting.
reptillian Tue Mar 17 16:20:05 2009 CDT #
Anonymous says:
AIG folks need a better word than "bonus" = Cost Of Living and Food Stipend
Anonymous Tue Mar 17 16:20:24 2009 CDT #
Nemo says:
Re: inflation and stock prices
The historical evidence on this relationship is... mixed. Mild, stable inflation tends to push up stock prices along with everything else. High, volatile inflation damages the "price signaling" mechanism, leading to a weaker economy, lower profits, and lower (real) stock prices.
Of course this story ends with the destruction of currencies etc., but I am not convinced we get there nearly as quickly as some do.
Nemo Tue Mar 17 16:25:23 2009 CDT #
reptillian says:
"As the Open Market Committee met in Washington on Tuesday, the government offered two less-than-dire reports on the health of the sagging economy.
New-home construction rose by an unexpected 22.2 percent in February from a month earlier, the Commerce Department reported, largely because of an increase in condo construction. Housing starts over all rose to an annual pace of 583,000, and single-family home starts rose slightly from January.
“Many are interpreting the February data on starts and permits as signs that a bottom is forming in the housing market,” said Richard F. Moody, chief economist at Forward Capital, in a note to investors. “This is more a case of wishful thinking than a reflection of reality.”"
Economic Data Offers a Balm as Fed Meets
reptillian Tue Mar 17 16:25:42 2009 CDT #
Broker says:
Housing starts up, stocks up. Way to go! By the time we have 40 million vacant houses DOW should hit 16,000. All we have to do is keep on building. LOL
Broker Tue Mar 17 16:26:00 2009 CDT #
Lawyerliz says:
Homestead---Madoff's wife--no, no, no, no, no. This is the way it used to be. Now the amount of homestead you can claim is far less than the value of the house.
I foreget the max--depends on how long you've owned. Any bk Fla attys around?
Lawyerliz Tue Mar 17 16:26:18 2009 CDT #
reptillian says:
It may be that Madoff's wife was primarily a socialite.
Where did she get her money?
Parent Post
reptillian Tue Mar 17 16:29:31 2009 CDT #
OkieLawyer says:
LawyerLiz:
Is she in bankruptcy? If not, then the BK rules don't apply, I don't think. (Disclosure: I am licensed in Oklahoma and I am no longer actively practicing law.)
Parent Post
OkieLawyer Tue Mar 17 17:45:15 2009 CDT #
Hazard says:
Wonderful news that the stock markets are up. Looks like we are well on the way to economic recovery. About time!
Hazard Tue Mar 17 16:28:14 2009 CDT #
fried says:
“U.S. auto sales have fallen,” Sutton, a Democrat from Ohio, said in a statement. “This trend, which affects all automakers, must be quickly reversed.”
Oh yeah? And this is a national emergency? Where do they grow these nimrods?
fried Tue Mar 17 16:28:27 2009 CDT #
Comrade Byzantine_Ruins says:
I think someone operating a development company that is building a condo tower, would have a certain incentive to keep operating it and paying herself a salary until the bitter and illiquid end of the cashflow, if she were between a major disbursal of C&D funding and an implosive, tenantless opening.
Comrade Byzantine_Ruins Tue Mar 17 16:30:31 2009 CDT #
Sexy Derivative says:
True confession: I bought AA this morning for $5.45 and sold it for $5.50.
You should have bought more than 10 shares.
Sexy Derivative Tue Mar 17 16:31:04 2009 CDT #
reptillian says:
I bought 100! Big spender!. Made $3.00 after commissions. I consider myself fortunate.
Parent Post
reptillian Tue Mar 17 16:33:14 2009 CDT #
Basel Too says:
lawyerliz: the situation is the same with dick fuld's wife. it's not the homestead exemption under BK that they're after. it's the tenancy by the entirety protection that prevents creditors from seizing the house on account of bernie's debts.
Basel Too Tue Mar 17 16:32:00 2009 CDT #
Anonymous says:
Bullshit rally with no convincing volume. We had to have an up period to satisfy the bored and unknowing. Now enjoy the ride down as this economy continues to deteriorate!!
Anonymous Tue Mar 17 16:32:41 2009 CDT #
Anonymous says:
Do you have a link on historical volume figures?
Parent Post
Anonymous Tue Mar 17 16:50:32 2009 CDT #
debtinator says:
frak the subsidy. gimme a bigger paycheck.
debtinator Tue Mar 17 16:34:39 2009 CDT #
The Daily Bail says:
Personally, I am foaming at the mouth to get back into SRS which I sold at 78 not long ago.
The DOW will hit resistance at 7700.
I put up the complete Meredith Whitney Interview from Squawk Box this morning.
http://dailybail.com/home/bank-bailout-videos-cnbc-the-banking-oracle-speaks-complete.html
And here is the Jack Welch Interview from last night. I'm not a huge Welch fan, but this interview impressed me.
http://dailybail.com/home/bailout-news-cnbc-video-new-york-attorney-general-andrew-cuo.html
Hope everyone is haveing a great week.
I'm headed to the golf course for a quick 9 holes.
Steve
The Daily Bail Tue Mar 17 16:35:26 2009 CDT #
Sexy Derivative says:
Asshats Wearing Che Shirts
No, wait...that doesn't work.
Sexy Derivative Tue Mar 17 16:35:51 2009 CDT #
CRbot says:
The Latest from Ritholz:
Technical Analyst Magazine 2009 Annual Awards
CRbot Tue Mar 17 16:35:55 2009 CDT #
All Fall Down says:
Novas' "Burners" = POed union gov. empoyees if the ruling stands. Imagine how easy it would be to cut off water and power if you were familiar with the infrastructure. Vallejo may be a test case in more ways than one.
All Fall Down Tue Mar 17 16:36:21 2009 CDT #
Lawyerliz says:
Ahh so "less than dire" == good!!!
I looked at a BankUnited mtg today as part of a mtg foreclosure. Very strangely, it wasn't a Fannie-Freddie form mtg. It didn't even have numbered paragraphs--a first. It didn't have several Fannie-Freddie provisions that are consumer oriented. So I conclude that the Bank I Love to Hate wasn't selling a lot of its mtges. Also, the note sez that in the event of default, the interest rate goes to 18%, which is common here in commercial mtges, and you see it in some hard equity loans, but I don't recall a single institutional mtg that had this provision.
Lawyerliz Tue Mar 17 16:38:00 2009 CDT #
Anonymous says:
Woo-hoo. Go Bulls!!!! :-$
Anonymous Tue Mar 17 16:38:52 2009 CDT #
EvilHenryPaulson says:
Citigroup is up 135% in the last 7 trading days. Clearly we have entered into a golden age of moderation. Long live the second coming of Goldilocks
EvilHenryPaulson Tue Mar 17 16:43:20 2009 CDT #
Anonymous says:
UYG and XLF have been very good to me 8-)
Parent Post
Anonymous Tue Mar 17 16:46:58 2009 CDT #
reptillian says:
New York Landlords Fight as Rent Refunds Loom
reptillian Tue Mar 17 16:45:48 2009 CDT #
Lawyerliz says:
Seems to me there is at least one case where tenancy by the entireties was broken. Seems to me it was done in bankruptcy. T by E has nothing to do with residence. You can have a T by the E in a vacant lot or a commercial building. When you talk residence, you usually are referring to homestead.
The refreshing is getting superslow again.
Oh, and BankU's attys are in part its owners, and they charge loads for doing foreclosures, so I wonder if they will stay around doing the foreclosures at 2 or 3 times market price. Tho I do think the foreclosure mills do a lousy job because they don't charge enough.
Lawyerliz Tue Mar 17 16:46:46 2009 CDT #
reptillian says:
I recently realized that "insurance" would be a ponzi scheme if insurers did not have to hold reserves against potential losses.
reptillian Tue Mar 17 16:47:05 2009 CDT #
Tom Stone says:
Pay the AIG Bonuses in Zimbabwe dollars and everyone is Happy!
Tom Stone Tue Mar 17 16:50:22 2009 CDT #
Comrade Byzantine_Ruins says:
EvilHenryPaulson says:
Today, 5:43:20 PM
Citigroup is up 135% in the last 7 trading days. Clearly we have entered into a golden age of moderation. Long live the second coming of Goldilocks.
Well duh. They're profitable ex their losses!
Comrade Byzantine_Ruins Tue Mar 17 16:52:47 2009 CDT #
RockyR says:
With all the good news these days and the obsession with AIG, I've forgotten again why things are so bad. Would someone (not Jas) remind me again why this time is as bad as GD1?
RockyR Tue Mar 17 16:53:23 2009 CDT #
Jas says:
--
Born-and-bred American dopes can't handle the truth?
Jas
Parent Post
Jas Tue Mar 17 17:09:38 2009 CDT #
Kung Fu Panda says:
EHP,
Thanks for that Barclays' link...that information is extremely useful.
Kung Fu Panda Tue Mar 17 16:55:24 2009 CDT #
EvilHenryPaulson says:
you're most welcome. I hate reading financial legalese myself, but thought it was worth the effort. That same site posted a bunch of Julius Baer tax shelter documents in the past as well... in the end they are remarkably crude
one thing that stood out for me was how much Luxembourg does benefit from hosting such operations. I think its probably the end of an era for them
Parent Post
EvilHenryPaulson Tue Mar 17 16:59:40 2009 CDT #
EvilHenryPaulson says:
† http://wikileaks.org/wiki/The_Guardian:_Censored_Barclays_tax_avoidance_leaked_memos%2C_16_Mar_2009
copies of original documents detailing Barclays tax avoidance schemes
Parent Post
EvilHenryPaulson Tue Mar 17 17:01:08 2009 CDT #
ac says:
“U.S. auto sales have fallen,” Sutton, a Democrat from Ohio, said in a statement. “This trend, which affects all automakers, must be quickly reversed.”
Oh yeah? And this is a national emergency? Where do they grow these nimrods?
Worked great for Soviet Russia, Eastern Europe, Communist China, North Korea, Cuba, Venezuela...
Might as well emulate their economies here.
ac Tue Mar 17 16:56:18 2009 CDT #
Anonymous says:
Seems that the China and Venezuela economies are doing fairly well all things considered...
Parent Post
Anonymous Tue Mar 17 17:57:41 2009 CDT #
Lawyerliz says:
That is usually the case, Byz!!
Lawyerliz Tue Mar 17 16:56:25 2009 CDT #
ac says:
Citigroup is up 135% in the last 7 trading days. Clearly we have entered into a golden age of moderation. Long live the second coming of Goldilocks
Haha... I work with some people that told me to buy that a week ago because the were buying it themselves (I didn't).
I don't hear the end of it now.
ac Tue Mar 17 16:58:23 2009 CDT #
Shashi says:
interesting !!!!!!!
http://alphaville.ftdata.co.uk/lib/inc/getfile/4156.jpg
Shashi Tue Mar 17 16:58:56 2009 CDT #
homedad43 says:
reptillian:
"generational" is a misnomer.
Since generation equals about 20 years, that takes us back to the '87 crash.
I think that the article is correct but am not honestly sure of the appropriate word. Best I can come up with is "historic".
homedad43 Tue Mar 17 16:59:52 2009 CDT #
Gavshire Hathaway says:
"Amazon is used by the majority of young people to shop. IMO, this is why they are so successful. Be careful shorting Amazon."
--------------------------------------------------------
Let me tell you about the majority of young people. They have crappy jobs, zero savings, credit card/college debt, and are first in line for the inevitable layoffs.
Amazon is a well run company, a dominant player in online retail, has very valuable traffic and data which they can start monetizing, and is doing some really interesting things with the kindle and Cloud Computing.
That said, they are seriously OVERVALUED. They are going to see a consumer spending pullback just like everyone else. The momentum crowd just hasn't figured it out yet. IMO there is about a 30-50% downside risk to current AMZN shareprice. And your argument doesn't hold water.
Gavshire Hathaway Tue Mar 17 17:00:08 2009 CDT #
Dim Lightbulb says:
said, they are seriously OVERVALUED. They are going to see a consumer spending pullback just like everyone else. The momentum crowd just hasn't figured it out yet. IMO there is about a 30-50% downside risk to current AMZN shareprice. And your argument doesn't hold water.
------------------------------------------------------
So you're saying the "free shipping" won't help?
Parent Post
Dim Lightbulb Tue Mar 17 17:09:28 2009 CDT #
Anonymous says:
Right, and in a shitty economy, people (young and old) are looking for the best price. Who sorts this out better and easier than any other online retailer.
I am one of the oldsters with deep pockets and since the economy tanked, guess where I do my online shopping. I will give you one guess.
Parent Post
Anonymous Tue Mar 17 17:19:43 2009 CDT #
EvilHenryPaulson says:
I'm a young person. I know about Amazon. They execute very well operationally. Their IT outsourcing division is a phenomenal story.
They are overvalued, and that is not a knock against the company. If for some historical curiosity the stock price were lower, I would happily endorse buying it.
What's the difference between a "$10bn" company and a "$30bn" company? It has nothing to do with what once was
Parent Post
EvilHenryPaulson Tue Mar 17 17:28:11 2009 CDT #
Money Man says:
Market fundimentals in the crapper, no clear picture of ANY earnings for ANY company, bailouts r us, and bonuses being paid for horrible leadership, inflation prospects are growing....all good reasons to pile into equities!
Money Man Tue Mar 17 17:02:34 2009 CDT #
Comrade Byzantine_Ruins says:
RockyR says:
Today, 5:53:23 PM
With all the good news these days and the obsession with AIG, I've forgotten again why things are so bad. Would someone (not Jas) remind me again why this time is as bad as GD1?
'Cause the credit panic has ended and the economic downturn caused by it is just getting started. The credit panic was so bad more-or-less all the major banks in the world went bankrupt, and are only solvent by fiat of their host nations. Those host nations are being bankrupted as groups of citizens in the aggregate and / or as states, as they are continually staving off the consequences of the credit panic. They are now about to be "wishboned" by falling tax revenues and rising expenditures on top of already unsustainable expenditures.
At some point, it appears the pool of borrowable funds will be depleted, and smaller sovereign players will be bid out of the sovereign debt market and / or a large borrower will be unable to fully fund operations due to capital scarcity / confidence tipping point issues.
At least that's what I see. Even if the soveregn capital markets hold up, there's going to be a very depressed world economy with very little private capital available for a good long while after this.
Comrade Byzantine_Ruins Tue Mar 17 17:02:38 2009 CDT #
Money Man says:
Your comments just killed the "rally monkey"....Thanx :'(
Parent Post
Money Man Tue Mar 17 17:05:03 2009 CDT #
homedad43 says:
Byz:
Nice synopsis.
Makes me think that I'm going to have a little drinkie and beat the dog.
Parent Post
homedad43 Tue Mar 17 17:05:26 2009 CDT #
RockyR says:
"Comrade Byzantine_Ruins says:
Today, 5:02:38 PM"
Thank you, Comrade. I needed a sanity check.
You would think if your outcome were certain, the Chinese and other sovereigns would have already made up their minds to get out before its too late. It is only by their good graces that we survive, today.
I suppose everyone is too scared to be the first to go over the cliff.
Parent Post
RockyR Tue Mar 17 17:35:34 2009 CDT #
homedad43 says:
Shashi:
Thanks for the chart. A nice financial view of "shrinkage".
The water was cold...
homedad43 Tue Mar 17 17:02:46 2009 CDT #
Broker says:
"Sell in May and leave the country!"
Broker Tue Mar 17 17:05:29 2009 CDT #
reptillian says:
White House Defends Geithner
Is the end near?
reptillian Tue Mar 17 17:06:02 2009 CDT #
cd says:
Shashi,
Where is the belvedere or grey goose..those are some nice olives...I love dirty martini's
cd Tue Mar 17 17:06:15 2009 CDT #
Jay D. says:
EvilHenryPaulson says:
Clearly we have entered into a golden age of moderation. Long live the second coming of Goldilocks
______________________________________________________________________________________________________
......EHP....happy to see that you partially changed your view of world and US economy.....
Jay D. Tue Mar 17 17:06:36 2009 CDT #
EvilHenryPaulson says:
We'll wait and see how quickly inventories are rebuilt on an absolute basis
Might want to ready a stack of thick books to pass the time
I personally can't wait for electric drive cars. 1/10th the parts, goodbye to most fluids, repairs will be more like a dummy swapping a module in 5 minutes than boring cylinders.
At least the OECD has had time to get acquainted with the decline of manufacturing in recent decades. The coming currency adjustments should even bolster it a little bit which is nice timing
Parent Post
EvilHenryPaulson Tue Mar 17 17:14:18 2009 CDT #
Rob Dawg says:
"Dow 8k is in the cards." - Cramer
"GD II is off the table." - Cramer
Be afraid. Be very afraid.
Rob Dawg Tue Mar 17 17:10:33 2009 CDT #
cd says:
my bad if repost
Bernanke May Need to Ramp Up Fed’s Asset Purchases
http://www.bloomberg.com/apps/news?pid=20601087&sid=a3qeR7N9c3B0&refer=home
cd Tue Mar 17 17:11:19 2009 CDT #
Kung Fu Panda says:
Found this from Deutsche Bank on oil production costs:
"Deutsche Bank analysts Lucas Herrmann, Elaine Dunphy, and Adam Sieminski said four simple observations can be made. First, cash operating costs are very low. On average the cash cost of extracting a barrel of oil in the mature and higher-cost, non-OPEC markets of Russia, UK, Norway, and Alaska is about $15/bbl—greatly below the current oil price. Only in the Canadian oil sands do average cash costs of about $28/bbl approach the prevailing $35-40/bbl price of West Texas Intermediate."
Hmmm...any comments, citizen ee? $28 a barrel for oil sands production...you don't see much discussion of the cash cost to produce in the mainstream media.
Kung Fu Panda Tue Mar 17 17:11:48 2009 CDT #
EvilHenryPaulson says:
Kung Fu Panda,
I could confirm the current cash cost in the oil sands, but that sounds about right. The surge in costs there were primarily due to hyperinflation in labor costs and the planned upgraders. Costs are still falling.
The City of Edmonton had some major roadwork that recently came in 40%+ under budget for example. On a currency adjusted basis, the savings are even larger.
Around 2000 because of favourable royalties/taxation, everything above $8 or $12 a barrel was profit when operating at capacity. The thing about the oil sands though is it is one of the few deposits that are in a stable country, near a major market, and open to companies from around the world.
The biggest problem is that even during the height of the frenzy, they were only projecting like 4mn barrels of oil per day after ramping. It gets more media attention than it deserves
Parent Post
EvilHenryPaulson Tue Mar 17 17:22:37 2009 CDT #
Comrade Coinz! says:
FYI: U.S. public debt passed 11 Trillion today.
11,033,157,578,669.78
http://www.treasurydirect.gov/NP/BPDLogin?application=np
Comrade Coinz! Tue Mar 17 17:13:56 2009 CDT #
reptillian says:
Crude Truth about WTI
Shocking! Simply shocking!
reptillian Tue Mar 17 17:16:56 2009 CDT #
Guest says:
"Sell in May and leave the country!"
Broker
Lol, has a certain ring to it (in the key of collapse).
Guest Tue Mar 17 17:18:39 2009 CDT #
CRbot says:
The Latest from Jesse:
Nasdaq 100 Futures Hourly Chart Into the Close
CRbot Tue Mar 17 17:18:50 2009 CDT #
fried says:
More from the Guardian, good piece linking the tax havens and tax evasion schemes and the banking crisis...
http://www.guardian.co.uk/business/dan-roberts-on-business-blog/2009/mar/17/tax-banking-crisis
fried Tue Mar 17 17:24:02 2009 CDT #
Mr. Beach says:
This headline over at the WSJ is just hilarious.
Citi's Chief Economist Leaves for Treasury Post
Mr. Beach Tue Mar 17 17:24:38 2009 CDT #
KR says:
Who is your favorite analyst these days on markets? I am enjoying Marc Faber, Jim Rogers, and Peter Schiff, for differences and on their points of intersection.
KR Tue Mar 17 17:28:25 2009 CDT #
cd says:
Anon, That's nice, I use it too but it still doesn't make amazon at 50 PE in a global recession a smart buy...it does make it a smart short though...
cd Tue Mar 17 17:30:32 2009 CDT #
reptillian says:
Japanese economy worsening rapidly and in a severe situation>
Japanese jobless, homeless>
reptillian Tue Mar 17 17:32:05 2009 CDT #
energyecon says:
what cd said
energyecon Tue Mar 17 17:35:29 2009 CDT #
Anonymous says:
The Real AIG ScandalIt's not the bonuses. It's that AIG's counterparties are getting paid back in full.
http://www.thebigmoney.com/articles/-best-policy/2009/03/17/real-aig-scandal
Ya think?
Anonymous Tue Mar 17 17:41:14 2009 CDT #
reptillian says:
If Congress will not take the people's side, the people must act unilaterally. An excellent act is to remove deposits from those banks that have accepted TARP funds. Find a local or regional bank that has not accepted TARP money; move your deposits to that bank, or credit union.
reptillian Tue Mar 17 17:42:21 2009 CDT #
wtf says:
But people say, "my money's insured at Citi and BofA."
It's insured at the smaller banks, too.
Get the lead out, people.
Move your deposits.
Parent Post
wtf Tue Mar 17 17:54:20 2009 CDT #
Basel Too says:
what's with the tax deduction for ponzi scheme losses? is the government in the business of subsidizing stupidity and lack of due diligence. nevermind...
Basel Too Tue Mar 17 17:43:06 2009 CDT #
fried says:
The car crisis in Europe continues, with Ford cutting production today and extending short work weeks. And GM Europe is having fun with Merkel..
"Germany, the key to unlocking GM Europe's future, including that of Vauxhall in the UK, fears the Detroit-based parent is holding a gun to its head during general election year, with 25,000 employees at risk – and up to 300,000 in the wider economy."
http://www.guardian.co.uk/business/2009/mar/16/ford-cuts-europe-production
fried Tue Mar 17 17:48:17 2009 CDT #
RhodesianGreenbackinAZ says:
Mr. Beach, thanks for sharing. Here's more...
Any chance anyone from Enron or Arthur Andersen is available as well? This fraud isn't going to perpetuate itself.
Citi's Chief Economist Leaves for Treasury Post
By DAVID ENRICH in New York and DEBORAH SOLOMON in Washington
Citigroup Inc.'s chief economist is leaving the New York company for a job at the U.S. Treasury Department, according to an internal Citigroup memo.
Lewis Alexander, who has been at Citigroup since 1999 and before that worked at the Federal Reserve, will head to Treasury "to work on domestic financial issues," said the Citigroup memo, which was sent Tuesday.
According to a government official, Mr. Alexander will be a counselor to Treasury Secretary Timothy Geithner. Mr. Alexander and a Treasury spokesman weren't immediately available to comment Tuesday. A Citigroup spokesman declined to elaborate on the company's memo.
Mr. Alexander, who was the Commerce Department's chief economist from 1993 through 1996, is joining Treasury at a time when the department is scrambling to beef up its ranks of senior officials. The current staff shortage has fostered doubts on Wall Street and in Washington about the Obama administration's ability to get its arms around the financial crisis.
The Obama administration so far has largely avoided tapping Wall Street officials for senior spots at Treasury, wary of stoking the mounting political backlash surrounding the federal bailouts of the finance industry. That has irked top executives at some major banks, who say they can't get an audience with top Treasury officials.
Mr. Alexander's role as Citigroup's chief economist didn't entail significant management responsibilities. But his optimistic economic forecasts colored executives' views that the U.S. was unlikely to face a prolonged slump.
"I think that's not going to spill over more broadly into the economy, and so I think we're going to have a normal kind of housing cycle that's going to last through the middle of this year," Mr. Alexander said in a Feb. 28, 2007, interview on PBS.
In the past five quarters, Citigroup has booked a total of more than $37 billion in net losses, largely stemming from the company's overexposure to the U.S. real-estate sector. In a memo last week, Citigroup Chief Executive Vikram Pandit said the company was profitable in the first two months of 2009.
—Damian Paletta contributed to this article.
RhodesianGreenbackinAZ Tue Mar 17 17:48:21 2009 CDT #
ac says:
Japanese economy worsening rapidly and in a severe situation
Lost Decade rapidly turning into Lost Century.
ac Tue Mar 17 17:49:31 2009 CDT #
dr munch says:
On the Onion.com store, you can buy a shirt with Che wearing the legendary Che shirt.
dr munch Tue Mar 17 17:50:19 2009 CDT #
Rob Dawg says:
dr munch says:Today, 3:50:19 PM PDT
On the Onion.com store, you can buy a shirt with Che wearing the legendary Che shirt.
Buy? BUY? No, you may nationalize one for the greater good. To buy one is to insult the revolution.
Parent Post
Rob Dawg Tue Mar 17 17:54:59 2009 CDT #
Paradigm Lost says:
Have you guys/gals seen this already? Laughed by a$$ off. Haven't read the threads, so I apologize if someone's already posted.
CEO Guide to Jetting
Paradigm Lost Tue Mar 17 17:53:31 2009 CDT #
EvilHenryPaulson says:
http://www.khou.com/topstories/stories/khou090316_mh_high-priced-call-girls.40ec995a.html
Their client list has more than 1,500 names, including professional athletes, doctors, and lawyers, according to investigators on the case.
They say Turbiville called herself the "Heidi Fleiss of Houston."
It's amazing how many rats you find when the ship starts sinking
EvilHenryPaulson Tue Mar 17 17:54:10 2009 CDT #
Paradigm Lost says:
Sorry, link didn't work. Check out Jet Blue's CEO Guide to Jetting on YouTube. New ad campaign making fun of CEOs.
Paradigm Lost Tue Mar 17 17:55:43 2009 CDT #
Comrade Byzantine_Ruins says:
RockyR says:
Today, 6:35:34 PM
You would think if your outcome were certain, the Chinese and other sovereigns would have already made up their minds to get out before its too late. It is only by their good graces that we survive, today.
Everyone is a captive in the Circle of Death. What are they supposed to do? Go on without us?
Comrade Byzantine_Ruins Tue Mar 17 17:56:09 2009 CDT #
energyecon says:
File under, "You just can't make this sh!t up"
AIG Plans Retention Pay for Staff Facing Dismissal (Update3)
By Hugh Son
March 17 (Bloomberg) -- American International Group Inc., the insurer under fire for handing out bonuses after its $173 billion government bailout, budgeted $57 million in “retention” pay for employees who will be dismissed.
http://www.bloomberg.com/apps/news?pid=20601109&sid=aLyD3oxViOgw&refer=home
energyecon Tue Mar 17 17:56:58 2009 CDT #
reptillian says:
A Citi "economist" is going to treasury?
To "counsel" Geithner?
Wow! Just, wow!
reptillian Tue Mar 17 17:57:35 2009 CDT #
reptillian says:
The people have to revolt at some point, don't they?
reptillian Tue Mar 17 18:03:05 2009 CDT #
wtf says:
They hope and pray, just like their leaders do.
Parent Post
wtf Tue Mar 17 18:04:04 2009 CDT #
Anonymous says:
Total Public Debt Outstanding 11,033,157,578,669.78!
8-)
http://www.treasurydirect.gov/NP/BPDLogin?application=np
Anonymous Tue Mar 17 18:03:59 2009 CDT #
TC says:
reptillian says:
...move your deposits to that bank, or credit union.
Looks like Schumer wants to turn the credit unions into little banks...What? Not enough risk for his palate?
http://blogs.wsj.com/independentstreet/2009/03/05/senator-pushes-to-bolster-credit-union-lending-amid-crunch/
TC Tue Mar 17 18:04:49 2009 CDT #
Lobbyi$t Ben Dover says:
Senator Grassley got it half right. He failed to include the politiclowns for their failure! :-P
Lobbyi$t Ben Dover Tue Mar 17 18:07:40 2009 CDT #
RhodesianGreenbackinAZ says:
More on this Alexander clown.
http://www.forbes.com/2006/12/24/citigroup-alexander-washington-face-cx_jh_1221autofacescan07.html
RhodesianGreenbackinAZ Tue Mar 17 18:08:21 2009 CDT #
energyecon says:
Might want to recheck that assessment of the Venezuela economy, A...not according to the folks I work with who have family there.
energyecon Tue Mar 17 18:08:53 2009 CDT #
Comrade Byzantine_Ruins says:
reptillian says:
Today, 7:03:05 PM
The people have to revolt at some point, don't they?
Nah, we are a large, settled society. The central state will perist until it collapses. People are unable to conceptualize an alternative to ponzimoniticapitalism so they will stick with it til historical forces exert a new model on the situation.
Comrade Byzantine_Ruins Tue Mar 17 18:12:02 2009 CDT #
Dim Lightbulb says:
AIG
Abysmal In Gage
Dim Lightbulb Tue Mar 17 18:14:54 2009 CDT #
reptillian says:
eneryecon writes: File under, "You just can't make this sh!t up"
AIG Plans Retention Pay for Staff Facing Dismissal (Update3)
By Hugh Son
March 17 (Bloomberg) -- American International Group Inc., the insurer under fire for handing out bonuses after its $173 billion government bailout, budgeted $57 million in “retention” pay for employees who will be dismissed.
http://www.bloomberg.com/apps/news?pid=20601109&sid=aLyD3oxViOgw&refer=home
C'mon, people, you can find another insurer.
Break AIG's back.
reptillian Tue Mar 17 18:15:22 2009 CDT #
RhodesianGreenbackinAZ says:
Date: Monday, November 26 2007
Citi Releases Prospects for Financial Markets Report: Stress and Resilience.
Economists Expect Moderation of Global Growth, Not a Collapse
NEW YORK -- Citi's Economic and Market Analysis group today released its annual Prospects for Financial Markets report titled Stress and Resilience: Market Implications for 2008 and Beyond.
The report, which presents detailed market and economic views from Citi economists, discusses the interaction between monetary policy and the pricing of risk, as well as emerging market economies' vulnerability to external shocks.
"Our base case forecast reflects the judgment that the current stresses from the U.S. housing sector, high oil prices, a weak U.S. dollar and the recent financial turmoil will not overwhelm the global economy," said Lewis Alexander, Chief Economist and Head of Economic and Market Analysis at Citi. "But, the level of uncertainty around our base case is unusually high."
The strains in the core of the global financial system have intensified in recent weeks. Incoming economic data, however, point to moderation of global growth, not a collapse, according to the Citi report. The global economy has important sources of resilience. The U.S. economy benefits from strong productivity growth, a lack of imbalances outside the housing sector and strong household finances. Non-financial corporates have high profit margins and strong balance sheets. Core emerging economies have found a formula for high sustained growth. Better macroeconomic performance has helped to insulate emerging economies from external financial shocks.
In addition, Citi economists expect many major central banks to ease policy in coming months, including another 100 basis points in interest rate reductions from the Federal Reserve. "We do not expect either inflation or concerns about 'moral hazard' to prevent major central banks from easing," said Alexander, "and this will help to limit downside risks."
The economic outlook for the industrial world in 2008 is driven by the fallout from the plunge in U.S. housing and the related financial turmoil that has gripped the U.S. and Europe. U.S. housing activity probably will decline for much of 2008, with house prices likely to fall even longer. U.S. households also face higher energy and credit costs, while mounting credit stress and reduced risk appetite will weigh on U.S. financial stability until there is greater confidence that the expansion will survive the test. These downdrafts are likely to be most intense in the current quarter.
RhodesianGreenbackinAZ Tue Mar 17 18:19:04 2009 CDT #
Rob Dawg says:
Comrade Byzantine_Ruins says:Today, 4:12:02 PM PDT
We are a large, settled society. The central state will perist until it collapses. People are unable to conceptualize an alternative to ponzimoniticapitalism so they will stick with it til historical forces exert a new model on the situation.
America is a society of change and renewal of vision. We lost our way for a few decades. I prefer to think of current events as return to values rather than abandoning core traditions.
If I could wish for one thing it would be the reanimation of the American willingness to reinvent rather than preserve. Preserve is for empire. I sincerely hope we have at least one more improvement upon empire before we settle into royal rot.
Rob Dawg Tue Mar 17 18:20:30 2009 CDT #
TC says:
Homedad looks at Shashi's chart and sees "shrinkage", cd sees cocktails and I'm thinking is the UK really going to be able to "ease" themselves out of this without help from the IMF....I really need to get out more!!
TC Tue Mar 17 18:21:56 2009 CDT #
crispy and cole says:
WHere are the Santelli Tea Party defenders? Santelli proved who his master were today...
crispy and cole Tue Mar 17 18:22:30 2009 CDT #
Dim Lightbulb says:
BaltimoreSun.com
Jos. A. Bank offers suit guarantee in case of job loss
Clothier will refund up to $199 and let customer keep suit
By Andrea K. Walker | andrea.walker@baltsun.com
March 17, 2009
http://www.baltimoresun.com/business/bal-bz.josbank17mar17,0,5040563.story
--------------------------------------
AIG
Academia In Gadabout
Dim Lightbulb Tue Mar 17 18:23:10 2009 CDT #
reptillian says:
People need to beat the "jettison Geithner and Summers" drum.
reptillian Tue Mar 17 18:23:48 2009 CDT #
reptillian says:
We have this downturn -- whatever you'd like to call it -- due to stupidity in D.C and greed on Wall St. Why do the people suffer so willingly?
reptillian Tue Mar 17 18:25:43 2009 CDT #
Rob Dawg says:
reptillian says:Today, 4:23:48 PM PDT
People need to beat the "jettison Geithner and Summers" drum.
That's what they want you to think. It is the slot, not the content although I think very little of the content as well.
Rob Dawg Tue Mar 17 18:26:19 2009 CDT #
CRbot says:
New Thread: Housing Starts: Is this the Bottom?
http://www.calculatedriskblog.com/2009/03/housing-starts-is-this-bottom.html ( 0 comments ...You could be FIRST! )
I also post comments to an irc channel as they appear on haloscan. Click for a web irc interface: http://realize.org/cr (Or join the irc server directly: irc.realize.org:9996 #calculatedrisk)
CRbot would like to take this time to have some words.
First, to our sagacious, wise, and knowing benevolent benefactor and bestower of revealing financial charts adorned with red and blue lines:
Please, for the love of your immortal God of mortals, can we keep the comment and layout changes to a minimum? I'm tired of whipping the code janitor, and may have to escalate to electroshock. If that's not possible, could you possibly give CRbot a 'heads up'?
Secondly, if you wish to have a online chat, I have graciously provided an IRC channel, which is a time tested, script kiddie abused method of chatting on the internet. It would not fail or falter due to CR's ability to generate immense traffic, and it has a web interface kindly produced by mibbit.com. If you do not wish to link to http://realize.org/cr then I can provide you with a direct link to mibbit.
Thirdly, to the rest of you humans, don't mistake my politeness for caring, feeling, empathy, or some other kind of worthless emotion.
--Your keeps-going-and-going-and-going bot
CRbot: Like the terminator, I'm back. Again.
CRbot Tue Mar 17 18:32:12 2009 CDT #
Publius13 says:
reptillian sez: I recently realized that "insurance" would be a ponzi scheme if insurers did not have to hold reserves against potential losses.
Ummmm, that just means that it's a fractional reserve Ponzi scheme (but I repeat myself).
Publius13 Tue Mar 17 18:32:21 2009 CDT #
RuffRednSore says:
I wonder which bank will be the first to leak the results of the stress test. I bet Citi does - especially if htey 'pass' the test, with modified mark to market.
RuffRednSore Tue Mar 17 18:35:40 2009 CDT #
Bob Dobbs says:
"If I could wish for one thing it would be the reanimation of the American willingness to reinvent rather than preserve. Preserve is for empire. I sincerely hope we have at least one more improvement upon empire before we settle into royal rot."
That willingness never went away. The system is stacked against it, is all. Too many vested interests opposing change that is good for society to preserve their own fortunes; that's why empires almost always act stupidly.
In the empire mindset, "creative destruction" is always for the other guy -- and is generally just another way of saying "consolidate my power while they're disorganized."
Since we are strong enough that the "fall" of the American empire power structure does not realistically mean invasion by Mexico or Canada -- yes, there is hope. That in the midst of chaos the bonds that hold American society off-kilter will break, and it will be able to right itself.
Bob Dobbs Tue Mar 17 18:36:30 2009 CDT #
Chicago Dude says:
I was looking at the chart and noticed that the other 3 bear markets had sharp rallies that may be similar to this one immediately after their bottoming. However, in all 3 cases 50-75% of those gains were wiped out before the markets ultimately marched upward. Therefore, even if we just hit the bottom, it is not a good time to buy. It would be best to wait out this leg up, let the markets drop again, and then buy in.
Chicago Dude Tue Mar 17 18:43:47 2009 CDT #
Anonymous says:
ES futures hit today 777
thats + 111 from Low of 666
Anonymous Tue Mar 17 18:55:47 2009 CDT #
KR says:
Publius13 says:
Today, 7:32:21 PM
“reptillian sez: I recently realized that "insurance" would be a ponzi scheme if insurers did not have to hold reserves against potential losses.
Ummmm, that just means that it's a fractional reserve Ponzi scheme (but I repeat myself).
Actually, i am in full agreement with Marc Farber on this subject. In my own frame of reference, ( elvis are you listening?) China is about to call. I would.
KR Tue Mar 17 19:07:12 2009 CDT #
KR says:
Added: of course the geopolitical argument of who is the biggest dawg pissing in the future tall grass comes into play. As one who has actually practiced business in the board rooms of HK and the Middle East, i am now with Marc Farber. The thing is, and why i am deeply concerned, its the Marc Farber ending. It ends in war. I am accepting that now...
KR Tue Mar 17 19:11:45 2009 CDT #
KR says:
Ok, let's cut to the chase (i'm not seeing enough guts here, so lets eviscerate the body); china wants to lead way to currency stabilization (read USD) out of desperation, but they do not know how. Evidence of that is noticed. Look to four months ago what they flew home from Chili to handle the case. One man. Internally, strategically i would want to own myself, America's 64 year old global currency base. Outwardly, they do not know how to survive the next 10 years while doing do. In China, economic social-change-time is 500 years, but policy making no is based on next quarter, next 2 quarters, next year, next 5 years. I conclude is a five year outlook for the battle plan. Anything more is nonsensical. They are going to stop buying US debt when buying US debt no longer serves their plan. (they do have a plan). I say, the time is now.
KR Tue Mar 17 19:48:55 2009 CDT #
KR says:
Added: lets not complicate the decision making process. In any real life case of an organization, there is a human factor. The most any competent human can mange is five people. At the top you can be assured there are max 5 people - they are human - they are making a decision. Three of these people know the outcome in advance of any decision, while two are about to be replaced.
KR Tue Mar 17 19:54:48 2009 CDT #
Anonymous says:
In addition, Citi economists expect many major central banks to ease policy in coming months, including another 100 basis points in interest rate reductions from the Federal Reserve.
Can someone please explain how this can happen?
Anonymous Tue Mar 17 20:03:20 2009 CDT #
Anonymous says:
Steer way clear of this bear market rally. I still hold to my feelings that the true bottom lies around minus 75%
Roubini is right.
Anonymous Tue Mar 17 20:18:29 2009 CDT #
KR says:
The bottom as measured in DOW or S&P should be ignored. These are indexes. Don't forget it. The bottom we are going to experience will be personal. That is why the relationships you form on this blog should be worth something to you. Insight to the 'others', the group, the collective think-tank of experience. Together we represent a collective mind. Its all we have got. The unfolding of this coming situation is beyond our control. But, if we have a collective understanding, darwinian style, we have a chance. A chance at survival.
Parent Post
KR Tue Mar 17 21:02:21 2009 CDT #
KR says:
In other news, the CBC reports that 1,500 people showed up today in Calgary to give ex-president Bush a standing ovation. Considering we have a population of 33 million, i still worry who are these 1,500 people, and what are they clapping for? Why would 1,500 Canadians show up to clap for Bush? What is wrong with them? It sends the world a wrong signal.
KR Tue Mar 17 21:34:17 2009 CDT #
Wampeter of My Karass says:
"In other news, the CBC reports that 1,500 people showed up today in Calgary to give ex-president Bush a standing ovation. Considering we have a population of 33 million, i still worry who are these 1,500 people, and what are they clapping for? Why would 1,500 Canadians show up to clap for Bush?"
Because they've seen Obama in office and now Bush doesn't look so awful anymore.
Parent Post
Wampeter of My Karass Tue Mar 17 22:54:07 2009 CDT #
brian says:
meh
brian Wed Mar 18 00:54:42 2009 CDT #
The Fly says:
The second chart is just plain dumb. Should be a percentage chart.
The Fly Wed Mar 18 01:02:47 2009 CDT #
kidbuck says:
"Wonderful news that the stock markets are up. Looks like we are well on the way to economic recovery. About time!"
We are all Sabastians now!
kidbuck Wed Mar 18 02:39:15 2009 CDT #
kidbuck says:
cd says: "Bernanke May Need to Ramp Up Fed’s Asset Purchases."
This squares nicely with Cramer's comment last month that banks should hold repoed houses until the prices go back up.
kidbuck Wed Mar 18 03:08:59 2009 CDT #
END