Comments for "Q4: Non-Residential Investment Revised"
Nemo says:
The cliff diving was supposed to have begun like a year ago I thought.
Nemo Fri Mar 27 10:23:16 2009 CDT #
CRbot says:
This comment thread has been HALO-IZED by CRbot.
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CRbot Fri Mar 27 10:23:46 2009 CDT #
yagwerk says:
@dryfly:
"most of the competition is held by PE firms or conglomerates, highly levered and run by 'professional managers' from outside the industry - a recipe for disaster."
----
How do we bottom out at 4Q09 if the next statement is the competition is overleveraged with too much overhead? Does the "recipe for disaster" not cause any impact? Bailouts?
yagwerk Fri Mar 27 10:25:11 2009 CDT #
Dead_Monkey_Bounce says:
Aesop:
The Wolf and the Lamb
Wolf, meeting with a Lamb astray from the fold, resolved not to lay violent hands on him, but to find some plea to justify to the Lamb the Wolf's right to eat him. He thus addressed him: "Sirrah, last year you grossly insulted me." "Indeed," bleated the Lamb in a mournful tone of voice, "I was not then born." Then said the Wolf, "You feed in my pasture." "No, good sir," replied the Lamb, "I have not yet tasted grass." Again said the Wolf, "You drink of my well." "No," exclaimed the Lamb, "I never yet drank water, for as yet my mother's milk is both food and drink to me." Upon which the Wolf seized him and ate him up, saying, "Well! I won't remain supperless, even though you refute every one of my imputations." The tyrant will always find a pretext for his tyranny.
Dead_Monkey_Bounce Fri Mar 27 10:29:07 2009 CDT #
Pavel says:
"Aesop:
The Wolf and the Lamb "
The ferocity of wolves is to be expected. It is the hypocrisy of wolves that shocks.
Pavel Fri Mar 27 10:32:17 2009 CDT #
iceman says:
Unemployment in North Carolina hit 10.7% today. In South Carolina its 11%. These are the largest unemployment rates since record keeping began in 1976.
iceman Fri Mar 27 10:41:35 2009 CDT #
Basel Too says:
slooooow day or js-kit screwing up?
Basel Too Fri Mar 27 10:52:20 2009 CDT #
dryfly says:
How do we bottom out at 4Q09 if the next statement is the competition is overleveraged with too much overhead? Does the "recipe for disaster" not cause any impact? Bailouts?
Had a reply - looks like halo ate it - have to run but here is the shorter version:
1) no bailouts - too small
2) there will be a shake out - companies w/ debt fail, those w/out debt won't fail & will pick up biz & assets from those that did fail
3) things will stabilize but at a lot lower level of activity
Over this is not a terrible thing for many.
dryfly Fri Mar 27 10:53:25 2009 CDT #
Ministry of Truth says:
I wonder if MGM misses the payment due today on the huge CityCenter project they have going in Las Vegas.
http://www.bloomberg.com/apps/news?pid=20601087&sid=anND5zrneLoo&refer=home
Ministry of Truth Fri Mar 27 10:53:31 2009 CDT #
Lawyerliz says:
A local detective came and gave a photo line up to my mom.
She identified one probable. And gave dna.
CSI in my dining room!
One local gambling ship company filed reorganizing bk, and one local small aircraft builder was reporting as letting go about 2/3rds of their workers, but stating they would stay in business for when business rebounds.
I hope IBM loses its shirt (white) with this India thing.
Lawyerliz Fri Mar 27 10:53:59 2009 CDT #
JohnRDC says:
One result of the "cliff diving" in non-residential is a big hole in the ground at perhaps the premier real estate location in Washington, D.C., i.e., 1000 Connecticut Avenue N.W. (at K St. N.W.). It looks as if the excavation is complete and further work will not begin any time soon. So Washingtonians will be left to look at chain link surrounding the hole in the ground for some time to come. The sign says financing was (to be done) by Chevy Chase Bank, which is in the process of being acquired by Capital One. Maybe the Capital One suits put the kibosh on the project.
Lots of "For Rent" signs in the neighborhood, too. Without the IMF, the World Bank and IBRD, real estate in this particular section of northwest would not be looking good.
JohnRDC Fri Mar 27 10:54:22 2009 CDT #
CRbot says:
New Thread: Vehicle Sales: Cliff Diving in February
http://www.calculatedriskblog.com/2009/03/vehicle-sales-cliff-diving-in-february.html ( 0 comments ...You could be FIRST! )
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CRbot Fri Mar 27 10:54:23 2009 CDT #
EvilHenryPaulson says:
dryfly,
I am looking for a bottom in production Y09Q4 as well, to be confirmed by spring 2010 in the statistics. After the production bottom I expect a new phase to reorganize global trade (manic behaviour to sort out currency, energy, base materials, agriculture pricing) lasting about a year, or late Y2010Q04
Of course I will pay attention to what is happening when and how fast, but that's my distant focus point
EvilHenryPaulson Fri Mar 27 10:54:55 2009 CDT #
Lawyerliz says:
Recovery in 3rd or 4th half.
Don't think it's slow so much as js kit has driven so many away!!
Lawyerliz Fri Mar 27 10:56:21 2009 CDT #
sdtfs says:
slooooow day or js-kit screwing up?
The two are not exclusive. I think that it's all the cheerful news that has people befuddled. I'm calling a bottom here, Tuesday at 11:45 AM PDT. Send me a thousand dollars and I'll tell you what month, ten thousand and I'll tell you what year!
sdtfs Fri Mar 27 10:58:32 2009 CDT #
popeye says:
test
popeye Fri Mar 27 11:02:45 2009 CDT #
black dog says:
My daily commute passes a work-in-progress Hampton Inn. After a year they are still doing site work. Last fall they finally changed the 'Coming Spring of 2008' sign to 'Coming Spring of 2009'. There is serious doubt in my mind whether they change the sign again before they throw in the towel.
On another note Virginia UE rate climbed to 6.6% in february from 6.0% in january.
black dog Fri Mar 27 11:06:14 2009 CDT #
kybear says:
If we believed this was driving off a cliff.
How can we benefit from this? Is there an ETF that tracks commercial real estate inverse?
kybear Fri Mar 27 11:12:02 2009 CDT #
Hal says:
A marvelous opportunity has opened up to see two industry shills confront a smart independent guy. On one side are Mark Mobius representing Templeton Assets and Barton Biggs for Taxis Partners both of whom say the market is headed up. Mobius predicting a "bull market" and Biggs saying the SP500 may go up 30-50 percent.
It'll be fun to see two reputations trashed, if stupidity is ever trashed in investing. I think of Abby Cohen who still gets paid for something, evidently. It must be all her wrong calls. I don't think there is any other business in which the road to wealth so clearly comes from being wrong and stupid.
Hal Fri Mar 27 11:20:26 2009 CDT #
OPTICS says:
KEYBEAR you can try SRS but beware as it can go down on bad cre news-manipulatin?-use stops!!!
OPTICS Fri Mar 27 11:40:08 2009 CDT #
cd says:
the funeral for the 4 police officers killed in Oakland is today....I was going to go but cant get away from work..My condolences to the families of these brave men...
To the 12 who gathered for vigil of the murderer. Enjoy hell!
cd Fri Mar 27 11:45:09 2009 CDT #
cent21 says:
I haven't looked to verify, but didn't the current recession start in either 4Q 2007 or 1Q 2008? It wasn't identified till 4q 2008 as per these graphs, but I think it started earlier as identified by the start of downturned GDP.
cent21 Fri Mar 27 11:59:32 2009 CDT #
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