Comments for "Employment Report: 663K Jobs Lost, 8.5% Unemployment Rate"
CRbot says:
This comment thread has been CRC-IZED by yagij (CRbot helped a little).
http://realize.org/cr/crcizer/phpCRCo.php?path=%2F9110330690329687245&ord=asc&csslayout=reg&topic=Employment+Report%3A+663K+Jobs+Lost%2C+8.5%25+Unemployment+Rate
And for the stubborn old-timers... it's also been HALO-IZED by CRbot.
http://realize.org/cr/halokit.php?halourl=http://www.haloscan.com/comments/calculatedrisk/9110330690329687245
CRbot Fri Apr 3 07:41:49 2009 CDT #
Tom Stone says:
I am glad this is contained to subprime...
Tom Stone Fri Apr 3 07:41:50 2009 CDT #
Anonymous says:
Let the Gaming Begin
Bailed-out banks eye toxic asset buys
US banks that have received government aid, including Citigroup, Goldman Sachs, Morgan Stanley and JPMorgan Chase, are considering buying toxic assets to be sold by rivals under the Treasury’s $1,000bn (£680bn) plan to revive the financial system.
http://www.ft.com/cms/s/0/358e479a-1fbf-11de-a1df-00144feabdc0.html?nclick_check=1
Anonymous Fri Apr 3 07:42:03 2009 CDT #
8 Ball says:
CNBC says we are near the top of the unemployment numbers, we can expect an easing of unemployment in the coming months. From their track record of predicting anything, they should keep thier mouths shut.
8 Ball Fri Apr 3 07:42:16 2009 CDT #
barkingtribe says:
Let's don't forget 1 in 10 are on food stamps. Do the math on those LCD's.
barkingtribe Fri Apr 3 07:47:08 2009 CDT #
Lobbyi$t Ben Dover says:
Time to become self employed and control your own destiny.
Lobbyi$t Ben Dover Fri Apr 3 07:47:21 2009 CDT #
sk says:
And my usual monthly contribution - The headline unemployment number of 8.5% is the U3 measure of unemployment. A broader and IMO, more accurate metric is U6 and that is 15.6%, seasonally adjusted.
http://www.bls.gov/news.release/empsit.t12.htm
-K
sk Fri Apr 3 07:47:51 2009 CDT #
Dirk van Dijk says:
Actually the point they were making is not that the UE rate is near a peak, but that we might be close to a peak in monthly job losses, in otherwords next month we migh just lose 600K jobs and then lose 550K in May, which is sort of plausable. Monetary policy works with long lags, but the Fed started getting very aggressive well over a year ago, and esp in Sept, about 6 months ago, some of that might start to kick in. Also start to feel the effects of the Stim. However, "only" losing 550k jobs a month does not mean we a have a rip roaring economy.
Dirk van Dijk Fri Apr 3 07:48:13 2009 CDT #
Show me the money says:
Dirk van Dijk says:
Today, 8:48:13 AM
“Actually the point they were making is not that the UE rate is near a peak, but that we might be close to a peak in monthly job ...
And a BK of GM will do what to your prediction?
Parent Post
Show me the money Fri Apr 3 07:53:35 2009 CDT #
Dirk van Dijk says:
Without a doubt, that scenario is w/o a GM BK, if that happens we will see at least one month of 1M+ in monthly job losses. Didnt say that we have reached the peak, just that it is plausable, and agree that is provided no GM BK.
Parent Post
Dirk van Dijk Fri Apr 3 08:00:03 2009 CDT #
shill says:
Time to become self employed and control your own destiny.
------------
And what do you propose to sell or offer to people who are not spending money Mr. Control your destiny?
shill Fri Apr 3 07:48:46 2009 CDT #
Bill says:
Birth/death model added 114,000 jobs in March. Employment is worse than BLS is letting on, this is nothing new, been going on for the last 18 months.
"Aye, aye, yo, shake your foundations." --AC/DC
Bill Fri Apr 3 07:49:04 2009 CDT #
mark says:
It seems the revisions for previous months are always for a greater number of jobs lost. Why doesn't it ever go the other way (less jobs lost than previously estimated)?
mark Fri Apr 3 07:49:33 2009 CDT #
Lobbyi$t Ben Dover says:
Food stamps are sales for farmers and food retailers, not just for hunger.
Lobbyi$t Ben Dover Fri Apr 3 07:49:41 2009 CDT #
Comrade Dazed and Amused says:
Should be good for another 300 poit rally on the Dow!
Comrade Dazed and Amused Fri Apr 3 07:52:32 2009 CDT #
Anne Mouse says:
Let the Gaming Begin
Bailed-out banks eye toxic asset buys
Don't forget the FASB rule change that facilitates this scam.
Anne Mouse Fri Apr 3 07:52:34 2009 CDT #
Stuart says:
Ya, but Liesman is happy the revisions weren't that large...
What an utterly useless tool he is.
Stuart Fri Apr 3 07:53:19 2009 CDT #
MrM says:
Notice seasonal adjustment effects on U3
Feb-2008 5.2% NSA ; 4.8% SA
March-2008 5.2% NSA ; 5.1% SA
Feb-2009 8.9% NSA ; 8.1% SA
March-2009 9.0% NSA ; 8.5% SA
Who are you going to believe - the government or your lying eyes?
MrM Fri Apr 3 07:55:35 2009 CDT #
Broker says:
Just imagine what this report would have looked like if Obama's plan hadn't saved 3.5 million jobs. Thank God!
Broker Fri Apr 3 07:56:35 2009 CDT #
Anonymous says:
Sure, once again bad news on employment, matched with bad news on just about every economic front you can think of. But evidently the stock market
thinks everything will work out ok, and soon. Or is it that the market is being
manipulated upward to hide the weakness. Go and buy stocks if it makes you
happy, just prepare for the next big fall downward out of the sucker's rally. Maybe your govt will come up with a bailout for everyone.
Anonymous Fri Apr 3 07:56:57 2009 CDT #
Lobbyi$t Ben Dover says:
"And what do you propose to sell or offer to people who are not spending money Mr. Control your destiny?"
If you can't see opertunity now then you will not succed. The difference between need and wants have been confused by many. Needs go on no matter what the economy does. Wants come and go. People spend money good times and bad, some make money good times or bad.
Lobbyi$t Ben Dover Fri Apr 3 07:57:06 2009 CDT #
Puntino says:
Weekly hours worked hit a record low, I believe. Weekly pay also dropped.
Puntino Fri Apr 3 07:59:01 2009 CDT #
The Lorax says:
U6 is up .2% to 16.2 NSA and up .8% to 15.6 SA.
1 in 6.2 Americans qualifies in the U6 categoty!
The Lorax Fri Apr 3 07:59:31 2009 CDT #
Anonymous says:
... 8.5% Unemployment Rate...
Another falsified statistic . No american statistic is true . Most obvious ecample is CPI , where Americans neither use energy nor eat ! just hilarious lies .
Anonymous Fri Apr 3 07:59:40 2009 CDT #
frazzle says:
Based on the Jan revision, is this really 800k?
frazzle Fri Apr 3 08:00:08 2009 CDT #
Anne Mouse says:
What will the revised number for the Feb month be in the May report? 700K+ easily. And come June, March revised will be 700K+. I think I'm sensing a trend here...
Anne Mouse Fri Apr 3 08:00:34 2009 CDT #
Black Star Ranch says:
"....but that we might be close to a peak in monthly job..."
I don't even buy THAT yet. Look around you. Are there not still "fluff" jobs out there? Jobs not required for basic life? Yes. Those are the ones that are next. Half the hair dressers, half the dry cleaners, most of the stores alongside the markets, half auto parts stores, many, many still to go.
Black Star Ranch Fri Apr 3 08:00:35 2009 CDT #
Anonymoustoo says:
Another up day for the market? Florida unemployment rate was 9.4 for February. Palm Beach County 9.7. These numbers are incredable considering it is the middle of sseason. I hate to see what the numbers are when state numbers are released at the end of the month. My daughter is pretty dependent on her multiple summer jobs to pay down her college bills from the prior school year. What are all these college kids going to do?
Anonymoustoo Fri Apr 3 08:01:09 2009 CDT #
Anonymous says:
Mark:
Why no revision downwards?
BWAHHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHHAHAHa...
No offense, you're new here, aren't you?
Hint: No bad news in Happyland...it's official government policy.
Anonymous Fri Apr 3 08:01:36 2009 CDT #
Lawyerliz says:
Are you Misean? Anonymous? You chortle like none other.
Parent Post
Lawyerliz Fri Apr 3 08:05:51 2009 CDT #
Morocco Bama says:
This should make for a big rally on Wall Street today.
Morocco Bama Fri Apr 3 08:03:03 2009 CDT #
Lawyerliz says:
Local fish wrapper on Space Coast sez that at last the figures are ticking up!!!
Whew! And here I've been worried for the past yr & a half for nothing.
Lawyerliz Fri Apr 3 08:04:38 2009 CDT #
Anonymous says:
mark says:Today, 14:49:33“It seems the revisions for previous months are always for a greater number of jobs lost. Why doesn't it ever go the other way (less jobs lost than previously estimated)?
Good point, directly shows that american statistics are just lies.
This lie wll be "corrected" upwards too. 4Q GDP was "revised by 66% (from -3.8% to -6.3% ! 66% "correction" ! Americans are dishonnest !
Anonymous Fri Apr 3 08:05:09 2009 CDT #
Outsider says:
Get out the safety nets! Ramp up Section 8 funding. Expand food stamp program. I hope Obama's stimulus plan works, but until then there's going to be a lot of hurting going on.
Outsider Fri Apr 3 08:05:54 2009 CDT #
sk says:
whoah ! LIESman on CNBC actually discusses U6( not just headline U3 ) rate of unemployment at some length - even puts up a (parabolic) chart and calls it REAL rate of unemployment. What gives ?
-K
-
sk Fri Apr 3 08:07:10 2009 CDT #
charlie says:
Go and buy stocks if it makes you
happy, just prepare for the next big fall downward out of the sucker's rally.
I agree that things look glum and taken as a whole the stock market is overpriced for near term performance, but eventually things will improve and when they do, the value of many stocks will be much greater than now. You just need to be aware that the price may go down before going way up.
charlie Fri Apr 3 08:07:58 2009 CDT #
Lawyerliz says:
On NPR last nite someone was speculating that getting rid of the mark to mkt requirement might actually play against getting rid of the toxic assets. Since they didn't have to write them down any more, the hit to the balance sheets would be less, so why get rid of them.
These people truly do believe their own lies.
Lawyerliz Fri Apr 3 08:09:06 2009 CDT #
Anonymoustoo says:
On another front.. In my 680 home subdivision with home prices between 500,000 and 1,000,000 at the 2005/2006 peak only SIX homes have sold in the last six months. This community is considered the best family neighboorhood in North County. "A" schools from eleminentary thru high school. All schools new or renivated in last six years. Ten minutes to largest public beach with free parking in South Florida (seven miles). New parks, plenty of recreational opportunities. Homes used to sell in a couple of weeks. Now the average is 91 days. Sure beats the county average of 183. Lots of alt A mortgages ready to hit the market. Lots of unemployed or under employed SBOers.
Anonymoustoo Fri Apr 3 08:09:13 2009 CDT #
Droupout says:
"People spend money good times and bad, some make money good times or bad.
I wish I had time to spend what I am making. We have been on a hiring
freeze for over a year. Mandatory 55hr minimums. I am barely keeping
up working 60. Old trucks + high miles = more work than I really want....
Some people actually do well in shitty economies.
Droupout Fri Apr 3 08:10:02 2009 CDT #
Morocco Bama says:
I don't understand the reeached a peak comment. Yopu really think the people who were recently laid off are going to find meaningful employment any time soon? Fat chance. If they are fortunate enough to find employment, it will be at a significantly diminished rate of remuneration. The best case that can be made is a leveling off, but there will be no lasting return to the days of job growth.
Morocco Bama Fri Apr 3 08:11:00 2009 CDT #
blackhat says:
The thickness of the blue-recession band, and the level of unemployment if you just added in U6 would already exceed 1983. The point is that usually peak unemployment creeps well into "the recovery" from recession. This time, not so. Book it. This is now a feedback loop, the hungry, flesh-eating vicious kind.
--bh
blackhat Fri Apr 3 08:11:05 2009 CDT #
CRbot says:
The Latest from Denninger:
Unemployment Friday
CRbot Fri Apr 3 08:11:23 2009 CDT #
Black Star Ranch says:
"My daughter is pretty dependent on her multiple summer jobs to pay down her college bills from the prior school year. What are all these college kids going to do?"
Many of those summer jobs will go (advise her to plan for it). MANY in college will drop out. The graduates afterwhich will go into what jobs?
Black Star Ranch Fri Apr 3 08:11:36 2009 CDT #
Broker says:
"Weimar Ben to print another trillion $ to help create 4 million 'green shirts' jobs. Romanian ambasador has a nervous breakdown."
Broker Fri Apr 3 08:11:37 2009 CDT #
Lawyerliz says:
Where are you, Anontoo, if I may ask?
Lawyerliz Fri Apr 3 08:12:58 2009 CDT #
nincompoop says:
Why do all the commentators talk about the cure but no one talks about doing something for the symptoms while waiting for the cure? The politicians seemingly ignore addressing the symptoms.
Parent Post
nincompoop Fri Apr 3 08:29:57 2009 CDT #
fafhrd says:
That's great stuff, Charlie. You could be one of those dime a dozen salespeople they feature on CNBC.
fafhrd Fri Apr 3 08:13:26 2009 CDT #
Outsider says:
"MANY in college will drop out. The graduates afterwhich will go into what jobs?"
Prediction: Trade and vocational schools better brace themselves for a large surge in enrollment.
Outsider Fri Apr 3 08:15:48 2009 CDT #
Anonymous says:
Hi
It would be most revealing to provide the following chart by month for the last few years:
Initially announced employment loss for a month.
Revision of the same number announced a month later.
Further Revision of the same number announced two months later.
ADP pre-announced estimate.
If month after month the number is understated as announced -well - hello- time to revised the assumptions and model.
Thanks
Anonymous Fri Apr 3 08:15:55 2009 CDT #
blackhat says:
Charlie,
The point you are making while true is obivous, the question is the timeline, and second the criticism is the assumption that the market will in fact correct on the way up, since it is currently correcting on the way down.
The market IMO was over-valued at DOW 6000 S&P 700. I'd say we are in fact in store for an 85%-type correction, not over-correction, and the best-case scenario is a stagnet market that bounces between 6000-8000 for a decade.
On the other hand, if the systemic economic melt-down does not cause a political and societal meltdown, in other words the market-ness of the system survives, then yes, I'll be looking at undervalued stocks, buying them with the intention of selling them at elevated levels for profit...blah blah blah.
On the other-hand, the raised beds are ready, and I'm planting out my garden like a fiend.
--bh
blackhat Fri Apr 3 08:16:06 2009 CDT #
Anonymoustoo says:
Jupiter.. People spending lots of money has never been a problem here until lately.
Anonymoustoo Fri Apr 3 08:16:42 2009 CDT #
Morocco Bama says:
We need a new chart to measure madness, because this is off the charts. If I didn't know better, I say they are attempting to induce riots and revolution. Problem is, dopey sheep don't riot and revolt.
http://www.ft.com/cms/s/0/358e479a-1fbf-11de-a1df-00144feabdc0.html
Bailed Out Banks Eye Toxic Asset Buys
The plans proved controversial, with critics charging that the government’s public-private partnership - which provide generous loans to investors - are intended to help banks sell, rather than acquire, troubled securities and loans.
Morocco Bama Fri Apr 3 08:17:05 2009 CDT #
Lawyerliz says:
The son plans to stay in grad school for the foreseeable future. The architect daughter is apparently still employed with the elusive project not cancelled yet. I guess not cancelled is as good as it gets for now. Boston is down a mere 18% per Shiller.
But I have a couple of cruise line sellers as clients and they are making fabulous money--at least for now. This is their high selling season, and they are selling.
Lawyerliz Fri Apr 3 08:17:50 2009 CDT #
Mean Flurry Kitten says:
The Soviets at least were allowed to choose the Worker of The Month....
Mean Flurry Kitten Fri Apr 3 08:18:52 2009 CDT #
Mannwich says:
All priced in?
Mannwich Fri Apr 3 08:18:57 2009 CDT #
Lobbyi$t Ben Dover says:
Time to consider sending Illegals home and regain jobs for youth to pay for college, elderly to supliment short income and others to pick up that second job to get by. OB's Shovle ready job means you and a shovle. Not you? What are you going to do?
Lobbyi$t Ben Dover Fri Apr 3 08:19:37 2009 CDT #
Black Star Ranch says:
"I hope Obama's stimulus plan works...."
Which one/s?
Black Star Ranch Fri Apr 3 08:20:43 2009 CDT #
Dirk van Dijk says:
Morroco, fully agree, just look at the cont claims vs. initial claims graph. When initial claims peak (no sign of that yet), they do indeed tend to peak. However cont claims form mesa'a not mt peaks. Even if GM avoids BK and we drift down to 550K job losses, that still means that U3 continues to rise, and U6 continues to rise even faster than U3. However, before we start to turn up, we will start to go down at a decelerating, rahter than accelerating rate. If we avoid GM BK we may be close to that point. I hope my comments are not seen as me being a pollyanna. U3 is not likely to peak until well into 2010, prob around 10% w/o GM BK, 12-13% if GM BK
Dirk van Dijk Fri Apr 3 08:21:19 2009 CDT #
Lawyerliz says:
Don't know if I posted before. I have 2 contracts, one to buy a nice condominium, one for a crappy house (by a buyer who is a licensed contractor, is very smart and sat out the madness and is now vultching again. Offers to lenders. Both for $49,000. You couldn't buy a pigsty for that much 2 years ago.
Lawyerliz Fri Apr 3 08:21:38 2009 CDT #
Yancey Ward says:
Why all the angst? Unemployment is a lagging indicator, and with Obama in charge of the League of Twenty, who needs jobs anyway?
Yancey Ward Fri Apr 3 08:21:50 2009 CDT #
Outsider says:
"Which one/s?"
The magic one/s sprinkled with pixie dust that are going to get us out of this mess.
Maybe thru unintended consequences. That's about my biggest hope.
Outsider Fri Apr 3 08:22:33 2009 CDT #
kharris says:
Agree with Dirk that a slowing in job loss is likely. Aggy hours fell at a -8.7% annual pace in Q1. That is massive, and likely to outstrip the drop in output by a considerable margin. The pace of rise in new jobless claims is also less terrible, also suggesting slower payroll job loss. Firms just went nuts cutting employment, and hours, after the autumn credit scare. The dreadfully low workweek will man new hiring gets off to a very slow start after output bottoms.
The report gives little reason for hope that the pop in consumption will last. Average weekly hours up just 1.5% y/y, the lowest in forever. That is spread over nearly 5 mln fewer workers (NSA). The low end of the workforce is living paycheck to paycheck, and paychecks don't get you far right now.
As to the birth/death plug, BLS is actually catching up to labor market conditions. The plug was nearly 20% lower this March than last March, a huge swing. That may not be the right number, but it isn't as wrong as had been the case. The plug serves a purpose, and I have heard no plausible suggestions for replacing it. Vilifying BLS is stupid and counterproductive. Just keep in mind that the plug is probably wrong and move on from there.
kharris Fri Apr 3 08:23:22 2009 CDT #
Yancey Ward says:
And on the banks "buying" the toxic assets- why is anyone shocked? Everyone with an IQ above 85 should have known the banks would "buy" each others toxic waste at inflated prices and put it to the government. The entirety of the Geithner plan is to have the government buy it at inflated values without it looking like a buy.
Yancey Ward Fri Apr 3 08:24:25 2009 CDT #
Morocco Bama says:
More unemployed means more candidates for Obama's Volunteer Corps. They will be given food stamps, mortgage assistance and a free GM. What more do you need?
Morocco Bama Fri Apr 3 08:24:50 2009 CDT #
blackhat says:
Back to the Future a la 1928:
Where we're going we won't need jobs.
--bh
blackhat Fri Apr 3 08:25:22 2009 CDT #
CRbot says:
New Thread: Part Time for Economic Reasons Hits 9 Million
http://www.calculatedriskblog.com/2009/04/part-time-for-economic-reasons-hits-9.html ( 0 comments ...You could be FIRST! )
I also post comments to an irc channel as they appear on haloscan. Click for a web irc interface: http://realize.org/cr (Or join the irc server directly: irc.realize.org:9996 #calculatedrisk)
CRbot is now proud to have the honor of introducing a NEW ERA in CR comments. With the JS-kit, but not below the JS-kit. A independent but integrated solution for all CR fanatics...
Brought to you by the hard work, dedication, and carpal-tunnel ridden fingers of your own yagij (and to a trifling amount your lovable CRbot code janitor, who will be flogged later)....
But first, let me don my ever stylish-- trendy but classic -- black mock turtleneck.
And now, introducing the revolutionary new innovative revolution that will no doubt revolutionize CR comments forever... ENDING the era of agonizing over long, carefully crafted comments only to lose COUNTLESS MINUTES when your comment is eaten by the JS-kit gremlins... CHANGING for all time the way you talk about mortgage pigs, hoopajoops, red and green colored muppets, and born and bred dopes...
With no further adieu... CRbot gives you... THE CRC-IZER!!!!!!!
You can also find a index of the 10 most recent threads, with mobile links at: http://realize.org/cr/crcizer/phpCRo.php
Ahem. Now the skeptical amongst you might consider this to be a joke since it IS April 1st. I find such lack of faith disturbing. Click and BELIEVE!
--Your much-more-db-enhanced bot
yagij and CRbot: Now with more CRC-ized posting power. You can worship us a little now, mortals.
CRbot Fri Apr 3 08:25:25 2009 CDT #
bearly says:
OK Boss, we're ready to take some off the top here, now that a lot of sheep got into the shearing line.
bearly Fri Apr 3 08:26:01 2009 CDT #
blackhat says:
Outsider,
I propose a tax on hope, faith, and pixie dust.
problem solved.
--bh
blackhat Fri Apr 3 08:26:07 2009 CDT #
Anonymoustoo says:
LawyerLiz.. My sister is an architect. She left Boston in 95 after the last crash and moved to Virginia Beach. Is an associate in a 60+ firm. Used to be 75 plus. They are heavy in university, museum construction. They are busy thru the summer than are not to sure what will keep them busy after July. Most of their large university clients are scambling for stimulous money but they do not meet the completion criteria of 12 - 18 months.
Anonymoustoo Fri Apr 3 08:27:28 2009 CDT #
Morocco Bama says:
Yancey, believe me, I'm not shocked, but that shouldn't preclude me from calling it off the chart madness......meaning allowing it to happen. I know why it's happening, but it is still madness. This system is insane and untenable. It can only end badly.
Morocco Bama Fri Apr 3 08:27:42 2009 CDT #
the man from nantucket says:
the peak job loss per month scenario is plausible (excl. a GM BK), but as some have mentioned, if we continue for another 3, 6, 9 months with 500-600k losses/mo. it's still a very tough environment. i'd rather have a short sharp recession than this drag on one we seem to be in....15 months now.
the man from nantucket Fri Apr 3 08:30:23 2009 CDT #
Black Star Ranch says:
"OB's shovel ready job means you and a shovel. Not you?"
Maybe the solution is the way India deals with the mega-millions out of work - turn them into house slaves. Most middle-class families there have their version of a "house slave". Just ask Jas.....
Black Star Ranch Fri Apr 3 08:31:50 2009 CDT #
Br\'er Dawg says:
Just a reminder. The Administration's "more adverse" scenario models Q1 '09 U-3 to be 7.9%. Even the OECD forecast was for 8.1%.
Let's be clear about the consequences. When you construct a stress test that makes predictions out to Q4 '10 based on assumptions that collapse within weeks in Q1 '09 the results are worse than worthless.
Just for an eye opener. The "more adverse" assumption for Q2 is 8.8% so based upon their record to date expect double digit unemployment for May.
Br\'er Dawg Fri Apr 3 08:33:32 2009 CDT #
Lobbyi$t Ben Dover says:
"i'd rather have a short sharp recession than this drag on one we seem to be in....15 months now."
Not this time. The government is screwing up the down fall to slow fast total economic colaspe. I don't see any up side till 2011-12. Then very slow growth. NP should have a commumity garden. I have one with excess to help out.
Lobbyi$t Ben Dover Fri Apr 3 08:35:51 2009 CDT #
8 Ball says:
Just for an eye opener. The "more adverse" assumption for Q2 is 8.8% so based upon their record to date expect double digit unemployment for May.
.......
I go with June. I do not see a slow down in job losses for a year. 12% unemployment if we are lucky.
8 Ball Fri Apr 3 08:37:40 2009 CDT #
Ho Lee Kow says:
Black star ranch, your understanding of traditional societies is pre-pubertarian.
French Revolution propaganda about liberty-equality-fraternity, and its offshoots in the XXth Century (Communism, Nazism, "Democracy"), have given us cruelty and mass murder never seen before in human history.
When asked what he thought about Western Civilization, Gandhi replied it would be a good idea. He was an idealist, of course, but he was right.
Ho Lee Kow Fri Apr 3 08:39:38 2009 CDT #
Pump-n-dump says:
Anyone here catch the segment today on NPR's Marketplace where Ms. Jablonski remarked on the season finale of ER and two upcoming movies?
NPR. Nominally Public Radio.
Pump-n-dump Fri Apr 3 08:40:25 2009 CDT #
Pump-n-dump says:
"
Lobbyi$t Ben Dover says:
Today, 8:35:51 AM
<tbody>
I don't see any up side till 2011-12. Then very slow growth.
</tbody>
Oh yea? Whose oilfield is going to fuel that growth? Certainly not Pemex'.
Pump-n-dump Fri Apr 3 08:44:34 2009 CDT #
kharris says:
Br'er Dawg,
Not worthless. Just have to know how to use them. If current conditions are worse than the "worst case" conditions, then risks are higher than the "worst case" risk. This is something that Mehra use to toss out as an aside in his finance classes. Bracket the situation with cheap-and-easy limits. Anything above here, no need to think further. Anything below here, no need to think further. Outcome of more refined analysis is already a foregone conclusion. In this case, we already know that the outcome is worse than the administration wanted to contemplate when developing stress tests. There is information in that, about policy and maybe about what the administration already knew about the condition of banks. 'Cause c'mon, they have tons of banking data and bank stress models. This notion that they needed till mid-spring to figure out what is going on inside of individual banks seems pretty far-fetched. Aren't stress tests a sort of convenient side-show?
kharris Fri Apr 3 08:47:31 2009 CDT #
Fried says:
Anonymous at 9:05 is Werner, desperately trying to be slick. The speliing gives him away...and the vitriol.
Fried Fri Apr 3 08:53:56 2009 CDT #
Br\'er Dawg says:
KHarris,
Points taken. The stress test took about 15 minutes and spat out an answer. My point was that the input assumptions are so obviously flawed that the "results" don't even provide plausible cover anymore.
Side show yes. but predictable. Everything this and the previous administration has done has been to one goal; buy time. Any other effect to my mind is but accidental.
Br\'er Dawg Fri Apr 3 09:28:00 2009 CDT #
END