Comments for "Office Vacancy Rate Rises to 15.2% in Q1"
CRbot says:
This comment thread has been CRC-IZED by yagij (CRbot helped a little).
http://realize.org/cr/crcizer/phpCRCo.php?path=%2F9148266605454327854&ord=asc&csslayout=reg&topic=Office+Vacancy+Rate+Rises+to+15.2%25+in+Q1
And for the stubborn old-timers... it's also been HALO-IZED by CRbot.
http://realize.org/cr/halokit.php?halourl=http://www.haloscan.com/comments/calculatedrisk/9148266605454327854
CRbot Thu Apr 2 20:24:17 2009 CDT #
Nemo says:
Maybe the government can buy the office space to hold all of the staff for all of the new programs.
Nemo Thu Apr 2 20:24:28 2009 CDT #
Gavshire Hathaway says:
Coincidentally, Vornado is also up about 15% from it's lows of last month. Implied correlation or causation?
Gavshire Hathaway Thu Apr 2 20:28:51 2009 CDT #
1 currency now [yogi] says:
CR you really should publicize the Implode-Meter case, for your own good.
1 currency now [yogi] Thu Apr 2 20:28:57 2009 CDT #
GYSC says:
"Only through ME can you attain the ultimate currency, the currency to save quantitative easing" "Are you going to devalue ME?"
"I would certainly like too"
"I know. I feel your hatred, it gives you power, makes you focused"
sorry, bad ROTS reference!
GYSC Thu Apr 2 20:29:35 2009 CDT #
Sr. American Mugabe says:
Can anyone confirm my wifes suspicions that I am becoming more intolerant of stupidity, graft, and corruption as of late??
I say I feel the same, but she swears I am becoming more vociferous and radical.
I used to think I was going to actually have to be more honest at work, but seeing how graft and corruption is being rewarded these days, I suppose it's business as usual. Well, at least I won't have to retrain myself!!!
Sr. American Mugabe Thu Apr 2 20:32:30 2009 CDT #
Mannwich says:
And there's tons more CRE space still being built. Should do wonders for the market when they're done and come onto the market. I drive by monstrous CRE construction projects nearly every day here in the Twin Cities. It's crazy.
Mannwich Thu Apr 2 20:36:17 2009 CDT #
MrM says:
New York feels pretty good now about delays with the Freedom Tower
MrM Thu Apr 2 20:36:42 2009 CDT #
1 currency now [yogi] says:
My bet still stands: no one over 45 will ride a 2nd Avenue subway (ground broken, 1970)
Parent Post
1 currency now [yogi] Thu Apr 2 20:42:24 2009 CDT #
ghostfacedinvestah says:
Yeah, that Implode-o-meter case is totally bogus. The more attention it gets, the better. The mortgage market has been a dark stain on the national sofa for too long, guys like that help bring it out.
As for CRE, don't worry, BB will buy up all the debt, he seems to think he has discovered financial alchemy.
I think he is wrong.
ghostfacedinvestah Thu Apr 2 20:37:07 2009 CDT #
GYSC says:
"I know the truth that you were once "mark to market", my father"
"That name no longer has any meaning for me"
"It is the name of true reality, youve only forgotten"
"I see you have constructed a new model to value assets, tim giethner has taught you well" "You dont know the power of a bottom line, I must obey my markets"
"then my fundamental analysis is truly dead"
sorry again!
GYSC Thu Apr 2 20:39:16 2009 CDT #
JBR says:
OT, but had to vent... Kool Aide still being served in L.A. From the listing of a 2/1 house in West Hollywood. $539 Sq Ft...
"133 s la peer is one of the most attractively priced properties i've seen in this recessionary market. Priced at a level that will attract a knowledgeable buyer who can make some needed improvements that will ring the cash register with a solid profit. "
I give up.
JBR Thu Apr 2 20:39:24 2009 CDT #
1 currency now [yogi] says:
Did it occur to any these ingenious developers that more people will do office work at home from now on?
1 currency now [yogi] Thu Apr 2 20:39:54 2009 CDT #
bearly says:
That's it - I'm doubling down on SRS and taking PUTs on BXP
bearly Thu Apr 2 20:43:50 2009 CDT #
Broward Horne says:
"more people will do office work at home from now on?"
----------
Office work?
Try "no work".
Broward Horne Thu Apr 2 20:44:28 2009 CDT #
1 currency now [yogi] says:
Less, work, Buddhist style.
Parent Post
1 currency now [yogi] Thu Apr 2 20:49:17 2009 CDT #
1 currency now [yogi] says:
Bberg:
“It’s the passing of an era,” said Robert Hormats, vice chairman of Goldman Sachs International, who helped prepare summits for presidents Gerald R. Ford, Jimmy Carter and Ronald Reagan. “The U.S. is becoming less dominant while other nations are gaining influence.”
Sounds like more of the same, if you're still there, silly.
1 currency now [yogi] Thu Apr 2 20:54:57 2009 CDT #
dryfly says:
Bberg:
“It’s the passing of an era,” said Robert Hormats, vice chairman of Goldman Sachs International, who helped prepare summits for presidents Gerald R. Ford, Jimmy Carter and Ronald Reagan. “The U.S. is becoming less dominant while other nations are gaining influence.”
BEST - NEWS - EVER
Parent Post
dryfly Thu Apr 2 21:24:36 2009 CDT #
bearly says:
I think we hit the over every week in the past month on fresh UE claims. O/U is 650k jobs lost in Mar. I take the over.
bearly Thu Apr 2 20:55:03 2009 CDT #
Michael says:
The stock market will jump for joy from the unemployment numbers tomorrow.
Parent Post
Michael Thu Apr 2 21:00:37 2009 CDT #
MinniRenter says:
106 new foreclosure listings on the Twin Cities MLS in the last two days. This is roughly 25%-50% higher than the rate has been over the last couple of months. I don't know other markets, but this is unusual for this area. Does anybody have any info?
MinniRenter Thu Apr 2 20:56:54 2009 CDT #
dryfly says:
106 new foreclosure listings on the Twin Cities MLS in the last two days. This is roughly 25%-50% higher than the rate has been over the last couple of months. I don't know other markets, but this is unusual for this area. Does anybody have any info?
Only anecdotal - my daughter will be going to the 'the U' for grad school next year and be there for the next three to four years - I contacted realtors about the possibility of buying a place as opposed to renting - wanted fixer upper REO since her soon to be hubby is unemployed & has worked construction and could do the work for near free then we'd split any gain - the realtor told us the banks are full to the brim with REO and holding back releasing them but mostly in crap neighborhoods like 'North' in Mpls or 'Behind the Capitol' in St Paul... but some nice properties were showing up in 'Nordeast' 'Longfellow' and 'Uptown' - nothing more affordable than rent yet but getting closer.
I know nothing about the suburbs - no interest - but guess is its ripping it up out there too. YMMV.
Parent Post
dryfly Thu Apr 2 21:35:48 2009 CDT #
Michael says:
But rents are factored in to determine inflation. Sorry, deflation.
Michael Thu Apr 2 20:59:05 2009 CDT #
popeye says:
Consensus UE claims is 658k. Briefing.com is calling for 670k.
popeye Thu Apr 2 21:00:49 2009 CDT #
popeye says:
source:
http://www.briefing.com/Investor/Public/Calendars/EconomicCalendar.htm
I'm getting sloppy about remembering to put in the source.
popeye Thu Apr 2 21:01:45 2009 CDT #
Barley says:
So what happens when rates go to nearly 20?
popeye - Im saying UE will be 925/950....Im probably wrong and way to pessimistic. Then again revisions seem to be closer to my estimates.
Barley Thu Apr 2 21:06:07 2009 CDT #
ghostfacedinvestah says:
O/U is 650k jobs lost in Mar. I take the over.
I actually take the under. Until next month, when it is suspiciously revised downward, then I take the over.
ghostfacedinvestah Thu Apr 2 21:06:35 2009 CDT #
Barley says:
Gav - Still feel good 'bout your placements?
Barley Thu Apr 2 21:08:30 2009 CDT #
Barley says:
I asked this earlier but I'll do it again...why are utilites so way off? I sincerely cant understand....thoughts please
Barley Thu Apr 2 21:10:24 2009 CDT #
popeye says:
925 / 950 thems some serious numbers.
popeye Thu Apr 2 21:11:24 2009 CDT #
NateTG says:
"106 new foreclosure listings on the Twin Cities MLS in the last two days. This is roughly 25%-50% higher than the rate has been over the last couple of months. I don't know other markets, but this is unusual for this area. Does anybody have any info?"
I think Fannie/Freddie foreclosures are getting going again. I know the CA moratorium just ended.
NateTG Thu Apr 2 21:14:55 2009 CDT #
Barley says:
popeye - Id rather be wrong than right, believe me.
Barley Thu Apr 2 21:15:21 2009 CDT #
Gavshire Hathaway says:
Barley,
It's the end of the world as we know it, and I feel fine
Gavshire Hathaway Thu Apr 2 21:18:49 2009 CDT #
1 currency now [yogi] says:
No new stores opened in my neighborhood (Manhattan) yesterday, despite falling rents.
Many more closed.
1 currency now [yogi] Thu Apr 2 21:19:01 2009 CDT #
Mandatory Patriot Bond says:
Once your 401K and IRA money is fully invested in me, we can rebuild commercial real estate by putting cardboard cutouts in every office window.
Mandatory Patriot Bond Thu Apr 2 21:20:59 2009 CDT #
popeye says:
Gav,
I'm all cash. Good Luck.
popeye Thu Apr 2 21:21:05 2009 CDT #
1 currency now [yogi] says:
Gav, how about we start a bank, from the ruins?
No loans held for sale, full transparency, any currency that's current (heheh)
1 currency now [yogi] Thu Apr 2 21:25:32 2009 CDT #
1 currency now [yogi] says:
Except that I think he believes GS Int'l will remain as dominant.
Bust that trust.
Parent Post
1 currency now [yogi] Thu Apr 2 21:29:29 2009 CDT #
Mandatory Patriot Bond says:
"why are utilites so way off? I sincerely cant understand....thoughts please"
If you don't manufacture widgets then you don't need energy?
If you're not combining and separating crazy chemicals then you don't need water?
Mandatory Patriot Bond Thu Apr 2 21:27:27 2009 CDT #
Lionel says:
I was visiting LA last week and was stunned to see how many shops on Montana Ave. in Santa Monica were for lease. 30% easy. For those unfamiliar, Montana has become a ritzy little shopping area over the past decade.
Lionel Thu Apr 2 21:33:35 2009 CDT #
Barley says:
Mandatory Patriot Bond - I completely understand. But some are off 60%. Have we lost 60% of demand because of reduced production? Have we decided to use our ACs only 40% of the time on the residential side. The last two recessions saw a 12-15% reduction in energy usage. Could it be input costs - well hydro (water) still flows, and for others natgas is cheap....
Barley Thu Apr 2 21:37:01 2009 CDT #
Mandatory Patriot Bond says:
CR Mirror overlords, what sort of
formatting options <blockquote>do we have</blockquote>?
Mandatory Patriot Bond Thu Apr 2 21:37:48 2009 CDT #
popeye says:
Good night all.
popeye Thu Apr 2 21:38:31 2009 CDT #
1 currency now [yogi] says:
Any toxic asset program should be run by civil service rules. Down with cronyism, up with meritocracy.
1 currency now [yogi] Thu Apr 2 21:39:03 2009 CDT #
Chris Monoki says:
Current and projected office vacancies are surprisingly less dire than other economic indicators. I wonder if this can be a refute to data that suggests the big "D" or an L-shaped recession.
http://monoki.wordpress.com
Keep pressing,
Chris Monoki
Chris Monoki Thu Apr 2 21:39:18 2009 CDT #
Some Investor Guy says:
As a surfer, I must say that I find that chart quite seductive.
Some Investor Guy Thu Apr 2 21:40:04 2009 CDT #
Anonymous says:
SIG: "As a surfer, I must say that I find that chart quite seductive."
Ahm, I beg to differ...the next wave just out of the picture to the right is a monster wipeout that will stick all our heads in the sand!
Parent Post
Anonymous Thu Apr 2 21:49:21 2009 CDT #
Barley says:
"Down with cronyism, up with meritocracy."
This is an unapproved program. We need to check w/ GS and have it a Board approved program.
Barley Thu Apr 2 21:41:03 2009 CDT #
Barley says:
schlaf gut, popeye
Barley Thu Apr 2 21:44:30 2009 CDT #
Comrade De Chaos says:
i am so pissed about Mark to Market death. Hypocrisy's at its best. I guess we have joined the list of countries (most of those) where connections matter as much as talent or more.
Comrade De Chaos Thu Apr 2 21:44:34 2009 CDT #
1 currency now [yogi] says:
From Chris Monoki's link
Changes are expected to FAS 157 Mark-to-Market, which should relax the rules and allow judgment for valuing level 3 assets. This could boost earnings. Also, money flow out the ‘back door’ of AIG to major counterparties could also result in upside earnings surprise."
Clawback is slow, but it's a bitch. Those aren't earnings, that's regulatory arbitrage. Office vacancies lag because leases are longer.
1 currency now [yogi] Thu Apr 2 21:46:16 2009 CDT #
Anonymous says:
Hah...that's too funny, Bearly, I doubled down on SRS just this afternoon...
Anonymous Thu Apr 2 21:49:02 2009 CDT #
krish says:
Can Ben win this game?
In the coming months, the federal government is going to be increasing its debt issuance to finance its increased spending as a result of the recently-passed fiscal stimulus program. The Congressional Budget Office is forecasting a federal budget deficit for fiscal year 2009 of about $1.8 trillion. As mentioned above, the Fed is on course to create about $2.15 trillion of new credit in the months ahead. All else the same, the Fed’s monetization of debt through the purchase of mortgage-backed securities, Treasury securities or through the TALF program in conjunction with the federal government’s increased spending will generate stronger economic activity. If the increased federal spending were being funded with increased taxes, then those paying higher taxes would cut back on their spending as the federal government increased its spending. Net, net, there would not be much increase in total spending. The same would hold true if the federal government’s increased spending were being funded with increased Treasury debt purchased by the non-bank public and not offset by Fed purchases of some kind of debt. But if the Fed purchases some kind of debt in amounts equal to the federal government’s increased debt issuance, then the federal government can increase its spending without any one else having to cut back on his or her spending. In the short run, this will boost real economic activity. Of course, farther down the road, this will increase the rate at which prices rise – prices of goods, services and assets. Ben Bernanke’s "money-dropping" helicopter has been replaced by a C-5 Galaxy transport! http://www.northerntrust.com/popups/popup_noprint.html?http://web-xp2a-pws.ntrs.com/content//media/attachment/data/econ_research/0903/document/ec032309.pdf
krish Thu Apr 2 21:51:21 2009 CDT #
Shill says:
The Banned SNL Skit Cannot Hide
http://patdollard.com/2008/10/it-is-here-the-banned-snl-skit-cannot-hide-from-louie/
So true and funny all at the same time.....shame they did not play it....Propaganda!
Frigging hilarious!
Shill Thu Apr 2 21:53:27 2009 CDT #
dashingdwl says:
A great way to fix the fraud is to legalize the fraud.
dashingdwl Thu Apr 2 21:55:16 2009 CDT #
Comrade De Chaos says:
"Those aren't earnings, that's regulatory arbitrage."
agreed, however how will we know? All firms are obligated to do is state which accounting method is used, rest is your guessing game. How will we know whether those cash flows are material or not?
Comrade De Chaos Thu Apr 2 21:59:50 2009 CDT #
1 currency now [yogi] says:
Look in the street.
Parent Post
1 currency now [yogi] Thu Apr 2 22:12:07 2009 CDT #
krish says:
We are not even done with the first one yet !!
U.S. could face second recession next year http://www.reuters.com/article/newsOne/idUSTRE5308HW20090402
krish Thu Apr 2 22:00:16 2009 CDT #
Comrade De Chaos says:
And another question, will the PPIP (whatever) will be used to value those assets at close to the market prices or imaginary prices? The "partnerships" won't care because they are getting their management fees on hugely leverage government free supper.
Comrade De Chaos Thu Apr 2 22:03:09 2009 CDT #
1 currency now [yogi] says:
If the fees are at civil service rates, Obama is serious. Otherwise, more games.
Parent Post
1 currency now [yogi] Thu Apr 2 22:10:42 2009 CDT #
1 currency now [yogi] says:
The Fed has begun a death spiral. They must keep buying Treauries to finance stimulus, and keep rates down. They will own trillions, and then pop.
1 currency now [yogi] Thu Apr 2 22:09:11 2009 CDT #
Chris Monoki says:
Who can one be possibly 'pissed' that FAS 157 MTM has been eased for level 3 assets? MTM is based on the premise of the efficient market hypothesis; there is nothing efficient about the markets. If they were efficient and accounted in prices all know information, then there would be no alpha. Kahneman and Tvsersky's Prospect Theory solidly refutes efficient market hypothesis, and this recent episode is empirical evidence that markets are not efficient.
Thus having an accounting mechanism that is based on a flawed hypothesis continue would be utterly ridiculous. When the price-seeking mechanism is working, with active and voluminous trading, then, yes, MTM, can work. But when markets freeze (fat tail), then no, MTM, doesn't work, and its process exacerbates risk. It, itself, provides even less transparency because is doesn't present value, but only distressed prices.
Keep pressing,
Chris Monoki
Chris Monoki Thu Apr 2 22:15:27 2009 CDT #
1 currency now [yogi] says:
Sometimes the price-seeking mechanism fails because the assets are worthless, or so leveraged that any sale at market price means insolvency.
Keep building the house of cards
Parent Post
1 currency now [yogi] Thu Apr 2 22:23:36 2009 CDT #
Baca says:
I'm still seeing condos and apartments being built in the central colorado area. A lot of these began construction months ago....I see homes for sale everywhere.
Baca Thu Apr 2 22:15:41 2009 CDT #
adornosghost says:
Baca, are you from Crestone?
adornosghost Thu Apr 2 22:22:35 2009 CDT #
Comrade De Chaos says:
"If the fees are at civil service rates, Obama is serious. Otherwise, more games."
right, doesn't matter how serious, you'll be played. Let's say a management fee of 1 % of asset under management. The bank sets an imaginary price of 90c. You bargain it down to 70c and a month from a transaction call it 80c (fair judgement). Now, while initially you had 7c under managed assets (10% of 70c paid) now you have 17c (difference between paid and faired value).
With this new rule we as taxpayers are set to be pawned.
Comrade De Chaos Thu Apr 2 22:24:28 2009 CDT #
1 currency now [yogi] says:
Great time to test his mettle about long-term performance determining compensation.
And I don't trust anyone willing to do it for $1.
Parent Post
1 currency now [yogi] Thu Apr 2 22:28:55 2009 CDT #
1 currency now [yogi] says:
Our economy is in distress, haven't you heard? That calls for a distress sale, or bust.
1 currency now [yogi] Thu Apr 2 22:25:57 2009 CDT #
Comrade De Chaos says:
now in above, I assume only private share will be charged a management fee. What if the government financed part will be counted as assets (partnership share - asset side) rather then financing (debt side). Than the fees and pawning will be even more ridiculous.
Comrade De Chaos Thu Apr 2 22:27:27 2009 CDT #
poic.v20 says:
"Who can one be possibly 'pissed' that FAS 157 MTM has been eased for level 3 assets? MTM is based on the premise of the efficient market hypothesis; there is nothing efficient about the markets. If they were efficient and accounted in prices all know information, then there would be no alpha. Kahneman and Tvsersky's Prospect Theory solidly refutes efficient market hypothesis, and this recent episode is empirical evidence that markets are not efficient.
Thus having an accounting mechanism that is based on a flawed hypothesis continue would be utterly ridiculous. When the price-seeking mechanism is working, with active and voluminous trading, then, yes, MTM, can work. But when markets freeze (fat tail), then no, MTM, doesn't work, and its process exacerbates risk. It, itself, provides even less transparency because is doesn't present value, but only distressed prices. "
Can you post this over on tickerforum.org so that I can use the jerk-off smiley in reply? They don't have it over here.
MTM isn't based on the efficient market model. It's based on the idea that you use the best of a bad set of models, namely more transparency is the best for a financial market.
And now we're going to solve a lack of truthfullness in our financial system by removing transparency?
Why is it so hard for anyone working on Wall Street to understand this simple fact?
poic.v20 Thu Apr 2 22:28:28 2009 CDT #
dryfly says:
i am so pissed about Mark to Market death. Hypocrisy's at its best. I guess we have joined the list of countries (most of those) where connections matter as much as talent or more.
It's not who you know it's who you ****. Can't even remember the first time I heard that - as true now as it ever was.
dryfly Thu Apr 2 22:30:15 2009 CDT #
Comrade De Chaos says:
"Thus having an accounting mechanism that is based on a flawed hypothesis continue would be utterly ridiculous. "
Not true, even if market is not fully efficient it is the best available tool to set values. The 70+ years of planned economy experiment has proven it many times over.
Comrade De Chaos Thu Apr 2 22:32:12 2009 CDT #
Anonymous says:
Attn Depression-istas...I know CR has also pointed out how we are not even close to GD2...here are a few more charts:
http://2.bp.blogspot.com/_wFWqWIH-WFU/SdBh_Ow36cI/AAAAAAAAJcM/eIehr0q7mWg/s1600-h/NA-AW774A_Outlo_NS_20090329225415.gif
Anonymous Thu Apr 2 22:32:33 2009 CDT #
Anonymous says:
The charts look bogus. It's showing unemployment at the same level it was 24 months ago, but unemployment is currently at 8.1 percent and climbing, much worse than at any time late 2007 and early 2008, where it was around 4.5 -5.0. The numbers coming out today will likely show that it's now around 8.6 and climbing.
Also the chart erroneously pegs the beggining of the recession as begining in December 2007 when in reality it began in Q3 2008.
The charts contain completely erroneous data
Parent Post
Anonymous Fri Apr 3 08:16:59 2009 CDT #
1 currency now [yogi] says:
The new FASB rule, the PPIP, and the equities rally in the face of record unemployment claims is extremely unsettling.
New York just increased tax on high incomes. Not a peep from Wall Street. Of course it can't claw back much if capital flees. But there are some nice houses...
Can Obama sell a "public-private tempory stimulus program" no opting out?
Fees don't work on banks if they collude to pass them along.
1 currency now [yogi] Thu Apr 2 22:41:10 2009 CDT #
poic.v20 says:
Anonymous, we didn't reach double-digit unemployment during GD 1.0 until year 2. We are at the make-or-break point now, just like during GD 1.0
poic.v20 Thu Apr 2 22:43:03 2009 CDT #
CRbot says:
The Latest from Ritholz:
Generation of Denial
CRbot Thu Apr 2 22:48:26 2009 CDT #
Gavshire Hathaway says:
Anonymous. Perhaps you should put the chart of the 3 bears on that same page. Interesting that the plunge in the stock market didn't happen as rapidly or as severely as in the great depression. Also interesting that it rapidly caught up. Another fascinating tidbit is that the metrics you're charting there lag the real economy. I mean, are producers going to know in advance that they need to cut prices to the bone? Come back here in a year.
But I've already made my viewpoints exceedingly clear.
Gavshire Hathaway Thu Apr 2 22:50:17 2009 CDT #
1 currency now [yogi] says:
If financials really are a good buy, they can have all my money to use to create value. They can own all the real estate. We vote back rent control. The democratic put.
Parent Post
1 currency now [yogi] Thu Apr 2 22:58:37 2009 CDT #
CRbot says:
The Latest from Yves:
Guest Post: FHLB Chairman Disgusted With FDIC Accounting Alchemy, Quits
CRbot Thu Apr 2 22:59:37 2009 CDT #
1 currency now [yogi] says:
One upstanding American, hold on up there, Sodom and Gomorrah have a shot.
Thank you Chairman Bowsher.
1 currency now [yogi] Thu Apr 2 23:17:02 2009 CDT #
Mandatory Patriot Bond says:
"Attn Depression-istas" Anonymous
It's not supposed to happen the same way. Actually it can't, because we're not under the same conditions.
GDP - bastardized by hedonics and inflation metrics being changed according to desired conclusions. REAL Real GDP would paint a vastly different picture.
Emplyoment - 1099 contractors and U-3 skew the analysis. However, we can be a highly functional society with a higher unemployment rate than the much vaunted "optimal unempoyment rate" we've had shoved down our throats.
Consumer prices - Are those real or nominal prices?
We cannot have the same experience, it's impossible. Fiat currency, different import/export/manufacturing mix, much bigger government. Government slows the whole correction process down as change is resisted. Unlike private business, which would shut down under unfavorable business conditions, government business stays open as politicans have lost their balls and can't make the right decisions. Only those that get them re-elected.
The end process is the same. Wealth is and will be destroyed. Real prices are decreasing, real asset values are decreasing and velocity of money is decreasing. Shadow banking created more "money" than the US politburo can feasibly create without a de facto default by dollar devaluation. I don't know what the nominal prices will do, but we're witnessing purchasing power destruction across the board.
Mandatory Patriot Bond Thu Apr 2 23:18:01 2009 CDT #
otishertz says:
yogi,
what is that Implode-o-meter case?
otishertz Thu Apr 2 23:21:08 2009 CDT #
1 currency now [yogi] says:
Haven't seen it verified but someone posted a link that said a New Hampshire judge ordered the bloggers to identify who anonymously gave information of an allegedly defamatory nature. This is chilling (term of law) to free speech and one step from prior restraint.
The bloggers have no physical nexus to NH.
Parent Post
1 currency now [yogi] Thu Apr 2 23:39:33 2009 CDT #
Chris Monoki says:
FAS 157 is, in fact, based on the efficient market hypothesis. This is irrefutable.
Keep pressing,
Chris Monoki
Chris Monoki Thu Apr 2 23:29:31 2009 CDT #
poic.v20 says:
"FAS 157 is, in fact, based on the efficient market hypothesis. This is irrefutable. "
Our last 80 years has also been based on the efficient market hypothesis. That is irrefutable as well.
Removing transparency from a financial system that already lacks transparency is a bad move with many unintended consequences. That is irrefutable as well.
Credit insurance on C and BAC spiking immediately after the removal of FASB is irrefutable as well.
But keep dreaming that removal of FASB is the solution.
poic.v20 Thu Apr 2 23:33:15 2009 CDT #
CRbot says:
The Latest from Mish:
Be Prepared for "Extraordinary Circumstances"
CRbot Thu Apr 2 23:33:59 2009 CDT #
evelyn woods graduate says:
AIG: Before Credit Default Swaps, There Was Reinsurance
April 2, 2009
http://us1.institutionalriskanalytics.com/pub/IRAMain.asp
Does Reinsurance + Side Letters = CDS?
evelyn woods graduate Thu Apr 2 23:44:48 2009 CDT #
Chris Monoki says:
FAS 157 was created with good intentions. And in most circumstances, it assesses fair value well, that is, when the markets are liquid and transactions are frequent.
However, what the efficient market hypothesis fails to account for is the imperfections and frictions in the marketplace, particularly at the extremes and/or during extreme events. That markets are NOT efficient and not ALL prices properly reflect value.
Such is the case today, where prices are at distressed levels and FAS 157 adds a procyclical nature to the event, exacerbating the situation.
Yes, FAS 157's intentions are to provide increased transparency, and I'm certainly all for that. But when it fails to post a fair representation of value, aiding to a cycle of capital requirements, ratings downgrades and lost equity value, it fails in its initial intention of transparency. Thus, in my view, easing FAS 157 MTM on level 3 assets doesn't lessen transparency, it increases it.
You keep saying 'removal'. FAS 157 has not be removed; additional guidelines have been given to clarify a practice that was an unintended consequence of its implementation. And easing FAS 157 is NOT a solution, but merely addresses one of the plethora of dynamics that have caused the financial crisis.
Keep pressing,
Chris Monoki
Chris Monoki Thu Apr 2 23:47:58 2009 CDT #
1 currency now [yogi] says:
Significant judgment day:
April 3 (Bloomberg) -- U.S. regulators may force lenders including Citigroup Inc. and Wells Fargo & Co. to sell assets and write down as much as $1 trillion in loans, twice what they’ve already recorded, based on Federal Deposit Insurance Corp. auction data compiled by Bloomberg.
Banks failing Federal Reserve evaluations of loans this month may be ordered to make sales worth as little as 32 cents on the dollar, according to FDIC data. That would be less than half of the 84 cents on the dollar the Treasury Department suggested was a possible purchase price. Some of the bank- insurance agency’s auctions brought 0.02 cent on the dollar."
http://www.bloomberg.com/apps/news?pid=20601087&sid=aylbeokVZaWo&refer=home
1 currency now [yogi] Thu Apr 2 23:49:47 2009 CDT #
1 currency now [yogi] says:
Cynic says:
Mayor Bloomberg wants a third term in violation of current law, but changing the rules overnight is in vogue.
He's hedging his bets with some populist actions, like the FOIA action on the FED, to get back in with Democrats he deserted to grab Giuliani's coattails. Or maybe there's a feeling of some responsibility?
Or maybe he has no editorial control...
Naaaaaaaaa
Parent Post
1 currency now [yogi] Fri Apr 3 00:02:24 2009 CDT #
1 currency now [yogi] says:
From the AIG article at 11:44: (you there sportsfan?)
As with the phony reinsurance contracts that AIG and other insurers wrote for decades, when AIG wrote hundreds of billions of dollars in CDS contracts, neither AIG nor the counterparties believed that the CDS would ever be paid. Indeed, one source with personal knowledge of the matter suggests that there may be emails and actual side letters between AIG and its counterparties that could prove conclusively that AIG never intended to pay out on any of its CDS contracts.
The significance of this for the US bailout of AIG is profound. If our surmise is correct, the position of Feb Chairman Ben Bernanke and Treasury Secretary Tim Geithner that the AIG credit default contracts are "valid legal contracts" is ridiculous and reveals a level of ignorance by the Fed and Treasury about the true goings on inside AIG and the reinsurance industry that is truly staggering.
1 currency now [yogi] Fri Apr 3 00:11:43 2009 CDT #
fishybusiness says:
CR:
We've definitely hit bottom, and are bouncing back, baby!
http://www.redfin.com/CA/Thousand-Oaks/3968-San-Marcos-Ct-91320/home/4551043
.
fishybusiness Fri Apr 3 00:12:02 2009 CDT #
1 currency now [yogi] says:
Is that for real? Criminal or a misplaced decimal?
Parent Post
1 currency now [yogi] Fri Apr 3 00:15:41 2009 CDT #
tanaw says:
PPIP doesn't get off the ground or lead balloons if it does.
tanaw Fri Apr 3 00:24:28 2009 CDT #
EvilHenryPaulson says:
yogi, re: Hendrix
Trust me, he spent at least 2 years in high school in Vancouver when he lived with his grandmother. I've got folk stories about him.
That being said, I'm not claiming it was his hometown or anything. That'd be Seattle, but he did bounce around and there was a brush with greatness
What do you know, you're just some uptight Newyorker jealous of the best coast ; )
EvilHenryPaulson Fri Apr 3 00:27:29 2009 CDT #
1 currency now [yogi] says:
Electric Lady Studios is righthere in Greenwich Village, where Jimi first played as frontman.
Great AIG article at 11:44,although the last sentence describing the Fed/Treasury's action as an illegal taking is off a little. Fraud as sham transaction is enough for a BK judge to bring out the claws.
Parent Post
1 currency now [yogi] Fri Apr 3 00:39:02 2009 CDT #
1 currency now [yogi] says:
OK, a gypsy citizen of the world, but the ultimate symbol of American individual freedom, even without the elctrifying Star Spangled Banner.
Parent Post
1 currency now [yogi] Fri Apr 3 00:50:04 2009 CDT #
poic.v20 says:
SEC Study Recommends Keeping Mark-to-market Accounting
http://209.85.173.132/search?q=cache:ckeyJXr20AsJ:www.mofo.com/news/updates/files/090107SECStudy.pdf+repeal+of+fas+157&cd=7&hl=en&ct=clnk&gl=us
FAS 157-e: Accounting Change Could Undermine Treasury's Toxic Asset Plan
http://www.huffingtonpost.com/2009/04/01/fas-157-e-treasury-plan-p_n_181655.html
poic.v20 Fri Apr 3 00:46:35 2009 CDT #
mp says:
"...reveals a level of ignorance by the Fed and Treasury about the true goings on inside AIG and the reinsurance industry that is truly staggering."
The chickens are coming home to roost.
mp Fri Apr 3 00:51:56 2009 CDT #
poic.v20 says:
Oh and I forgot
<h3 class="post-title entry-title">Guest Post: FHLB Chairman Disgusted With FASB Accounting Alchemy, Quits</h3>
http://www.nakedcapitalism.com/2009/04/guest-post-fhlb-chairman-disgusted-with.html
poic.v20 Fri Apr 3 00:52:03 2009 CDT #
1 currency now [yogi] says:
To be fair we shouldn't be putting this all on Obama. He must play peaceful diplomat. There has to be a hard-nosed prosecutor somewhere (who cares if he uses hookers). Obama will soon see that Geithner must go, and big bank equity-holders too. Bonds get a crew-cut, everyone eats some inflation.
Parent Post
1 currency now [yogi] Fri Apr 3 00:59:52 2009 CDT #
sdtfs says:
Yes, FAS 157's intentions are to provide increased transparency, and I'm certainly all for that. But when it fails to post a fair representation of value, aiding to a cycle of capital requirements, ratings downgrades and lost equity value, it fails in its initial intention of transparency. Thus, in my view, easing FAS 157 MTM on level 3 assets doesn't lessen transparency, it increases it.
So taking the other side of the argument,...why should I have any faith that the Level 3 assets are worth what is reported? And don't give me an argument about trusting the accountants, they've already blown that one to hell,...I think that's why we're discussing mark to market agan.
sdtfs Fri Apr 3 00:54:31 2009 CDT #
picosec says:
In Oakland, I'm seeing gas stations closing.
Gas demand down, gas prices (profit margin) down, therefore the corner gas station down. More CRE vacancies (and probably in need of decontamination as well!)
picosec Fri Apr 3 01:02:31 2009 CDT #
CRbot says:
The Latest from Yves:
Treasury Trying to Defend Bank Gaming of Public-Private Partnership
CRbot Fri Apr 3 01:03:21 2009 CDT #
mp says:
"Obama will soon see that Geithner must go..."
I've learned a great deal this evening. I've learned that FHLB is going to blow up. I've learned that AIG is going to blow up. Again, and massively.
I've also learned that Geithner is an idiot.
Dow 6000, here we come, and sooner than anybody thought possible.
mp Fri Apr 3 01:03:57 2009 CDT #
EvilHenryPaulson says:
mp
I thought a couple FHLBs had already blown up? 5 total I think
EvilHenryPaulson Fri Apr 3 01:13:18 2009 CDT #
EvilHenryPaulson says:
mp
I thought a couple FHLBs had already blown up? 5 total I think
EvilHenryPaulson Fri Apr 3 01:13:40 2009 CDT #
Tim waiting for 2012 says:
picosec
That also may have to do with the new gasoline emission standards coming into effect across CA
http://www.allheadlinenews.com/articles/7014635190
Tim waiting for 2012 Fri Apr 3 01:14:07 2009 CDT #
mp says:
<tbody>
"I thought a couple FHLBs had already blown up? 5 total I think"
Like this comment? [yes] [no] (Score: 0 by 0)E
EHP, what I mean is that the likely losses appear to be mounting massively, like several hundred billion.
</tbody>
mp Fri Apr 3 01:16:48 2009 CDT #
mp says:
@EHP
This damned system is screwing things around, but I think you get my meaning.
mp Fri Apr 3 01:18:01 2009 CDT #
mp says:
FHLB=Yucca Flats
BWAHAHAHAHA!
mp Fri Apr 3 01:20:19 2009 CDT #
1 currency now [yogi] says:
I'm still leaning toward my first impression as complicit.
Like in anything, there are good financiers who try to channel money to good ideas (sustainable), good politicians, good lawyers. They're being crowded out.
1 currency now [yogi] Fri Apr 3 01:22:41 2009 CDT #
1 currency now [yogi] says:
They pledged a trillion to the IMF today like it existed.
Parent Post
1 currency now [yogi] Fri Apr 3 01:24:59 2009 CDT #
yagij says:
Copying & pasting from JS-Kit is bad, m'kay. You don't do that, m'kay.
yagij Fri Apr 3 01:23:19 2009 CDT #
1 currency now [yogi] says:
You are a graphic designer's five minutes from strangling JS-KIt. Keep awake.
Parent Post
1 currency now [yogi] Fri Apr 3 01:32:27 2009 CDT #
PonziMCC says:
FHLB Atlanta has made $51.4 billion in advances to Countrywide Bank as of Sept. 30, Schumer wrote, citing the most recent Securities and Exchange Commission filings
old news -
http://www.nakedcapitalism.com/2007/11/schumer-demands-investigation-of-fhlb.html
i know, but ....countryfried(aka bac) paid this back....right?
PonziMCC Fri Apr 3 01:27:59 2009 CDT #
mp says:
Tonight, I've come to the conclusion that the system is going to burn to the ground before they can put out the fire.
mp Fri Apr 3 01:34:23 2009 CDT #
1 currency now [yogi] says:
"Tonight, I've come to the conclusion that the system is going to burn to the ground before they can put out the fire."
A house of cards coming down doesn't have to do much damage. Mansions become museums. We have to go digital anyway, that's progress. Warren Buffett is no hero, he got greedy. Linus Torvalds is a hero.
Parent Post
1 currency now [yogi] Fri Apr 3 02:12:58 2009 CDT #
1 currency now [yogi] says:
Please, please, please, don't let Jas see this one
http://www.bloomberg.com/apps/news?pid=20601170&refer=special_report&sid=a0jln3.CSS6c
1 currency now [yogi] Fri Apr 3 01:36:21 2009 CDT #
1 currency now [yogi] says:
``Securitization was based on the premise that a fool was born every minute,'' Joseph Stiglitz, a professor of economics at Columbia University in New York, told a congressional committee on Oct. 21. ``Globalization meant that there was a global landscape on which they could search for those fools -- and they found them everywhere.''
Oh thank glod he didn't use "dope".
Parent Post
1 currency now [yogi] Fri Apr 3 01:40:04 2009 CDT #
1 currency now [yogi] says:
Still no one sees the obvious, that securitization is also capital gains tax arbitrage.
Parent Post
1 currency now [yogi] Fri Apr 3 01:45:48 2009 CDT #
RE says:
Interesting excerpt from Pettis:
Only about 7 percent of the students who are about to graduate in July have managed to secure jobs till now, down 50 percent from the same period last year, the Guangdong education bureau said yesterday.
About 331,000 local college students will graduate in July this year, 14.2 percent more than last year. A large number of graduating students from other provinces have been coming to Guangdong in search of jobs, the bureau said, adding that almost 500,000 graduates would be applying for jobs in Guangdong this year.
The demand for graduates has dipped by 20 percent in the wake of the global economic slowdown, Luo Weiqi, director of the Guangdong provincial education bureau, said.
Till March 10, only 7.61 percent of four-year college graduates have found jobs and signed work contracts, Luo said. ...
RE Fri Apr 3 01:37:34 2009 CDT #
1 currency now [yogi] says:
Wait till the UAW realizes if you cut finance costs out of the equation you might earn a good wage selling cars for $10,000. Then we'll get a recovery.
1 currency now [yogi] Fri Apr 3 01:53:08 2009 CDT #
sdtfs says:
A house of cards coming down doesn't have to do much damage
On the bright side, those poor kids working in a sweat shop in some third world country will be making forty US dollars an hour,...if they'll accept the funny money we'll be printing.
sdtfs Fri Apr 3 02:17:41 2009 CDT #
EvilHenryPaulson says:
btw
there are 12 FHLB banks, I recall at least 2 of them being so broke they suspended share redemptions and are not paying dividends
and also, this tidbit from wikipedia
On July 30, 2008, the Housing and Economic Recovery Act of 2008 (HERA) became law. The FHLBanks were referenced in this legislation, and the two changes were
1) the existing regulator (the Federal Housing Finance Board) was replaced with the Federal Housing Finance Agency, and
2) the Secretary of the Treasury was authorized to purchase FHLBank debt securities in any amount through December 31, 2009. After that time, the limit would return to the original $4 billion.
EvilHenryPaulson Fri Apr 3 02:19:38 2009 CDT #
1 currency now [yogi] says:
Of course I feel for the wage slave who made this computer, but his government is not entirely blameless, and I can't fight his revolution.
China will pick up on my notion that they'd better index all trade to a basket of liquid tangibles.
Parent Post
1 currency now [yogi] Fri Apr 3 02:29:02 2009 CDT #
1 currency now [yogi] says:
In the new US auto industry (mostly made to order) defaulted car loans will confer no right of repossession. Borrow from someone who trusts you or buy used.
Parent Post
1 currency now [yogi] Fri Apr 3 02:45:16 2009 CDT #
EvilHenryPaulson says:
maybe PPIP won't get the buy-in that Geithner needs
http://accruedint.blogspot.com/2009/03/ppip-maybe-youd-like-it-back-in-your.html
EvilHenryPaulson Fri Apr 3 02:43:50 2009 CDT #
Werner says:
sdtfs says:
...On the bright side, those poor kids working in a sweat shop in some third world country will be making forty US dollars an hour,...if they'll accept the funny money we'll be printing...
------------------------------------
This clearly shows how depicable and depraved Americans are !!
Werner Fri Apr 3 02:57:03 2009 CDT #
1 currency now [yogi] says:
And how the Germans have no sense of humor. ;)
Parent Post
1 currency now [yogi] Fri Apr 3 03:00:12 2009 CDT #
1 currency now [yogi] says:
Ha. Everyone wonders why New York rents and prices haven't collapsed like they should. That same rent control that they used to say drove away builders limited space for a bubble. We'll get a crash but it will hit the high end worse.
The system is cumbersome, gameable, and not Utopian, but it generally keeps the peace.
1 currency now [yogi] Fri Apr 3 03:09:29 2009 CDT #
Werner says:
1 currency now [yogi] says:
...“And how the Germans have no sense of humor....
--------------
Ah, scolding Americans about their despicable behaviour (..."On the bright side, those poor kids working in a sweat shop in some third world country will be making forty US dollars an hour,...if they'll accept the funny money we'll be printing"...) is lacking a sense of humor . How cool.
Werner Fri Apr 3 03:22:40 2009 CDT #
1 currency now [yogi] says:
Werner: Germany fucked people over with hyperinflation, then they ran some of the worst slave labor camps in history. They got bailed out when we thought we needed them to curtail the Iron Curtain.
The truth is China's government bears some of the blame for not protecting their workers from our devaluation. It's up to them to wean their economy off the dollar. Sdtfs's post was sarcastic. On American blogs we openly mock our leaders and their policies. It's practically a ritual. Try it.
Parent Post
1 currency now [yogi] Fri Apr 3 03:43:09 2009 CDT #
1 currency now [yogi] says:
"The authors of the 1988 McKinsey handbook on securitization have moved on. Rosenthal, who declined to be interviewed, became a managing director at Lehman and is now in charge of information technology at Morgan Stanley."
Talk about toxic assets...
1 currency now [yogi] Fri Apr 3 03:26:17 2009 CDT #
Comrade Byzantine_Ruins says:
The system is cumbersome, gameable, and not Utopian, but it generally keeps the peace.
I have to say it looks like a nightmare from here, but it's clear without something, it would be too expensive for the people who live in your city to live in your city. It seems to me it almost got that way this arc.
I would definitely focus on strengthening and renewing that system. It has been badly damaged by development interests this go-round.
You can end up in a situation where, for example, the renovation costs clause is used to shift all housing to the high end, which pushes out human population and simultaneously keeps large swaths of the apartment population from renting 'cause they'll cash flow negative at market rates. Instant Temecula on the Hudson. Your Own Private Miami.
It could happen to you. In fact, you'll soon find it has, in some areas.
New York Real Estate is what I read when I get through Israeli domestic politics and don't want to read Bloomberg reviews of Michelin-rated brasseries in London. =)
Comrade Byzantine_Ruins Fri Apr 3 03:29:36 2009 CDT #
1 currency now [yogi] says:
It doesn't exactly push out population because contrary to zoned mansions, the luxury units are towers that replaced tenements. Chicago's Equity Properties cited earlier by CR, Boston Properties, all those European investors, made the mistakes of classic absentee landlords. Not that some local bigshots didn't get greedy, but local renters will reshuffle as soon the banks are broken. New legal structures will emerge favoring cooperative arrangements.
Real estate is local, and so is real estate law.
Parent Post
1 currency now [yogi] Fri Apr 3 03:55:35 2009 CDT #
Comrade Byzantine_Ruins says:
Werner:
This clearly shows how despicable and depraved Americans are !!
Commenter at Calculated Risk called depraved doom-porno junkie vampire / insensitive monster not aware of the suffering of others. Must be another day like any other. You're drifting towards Jas Jain without the sympathetic part. Jas wants to wake up all the dopes, so much you want to give him a sedative injection. You just want to talk about how the evil Americans cheated you, you, wonderful hard-working Werner.
Suck to be you Werner. Also, in case you missed it, most of us live on site, and you really have little room to complain to us. You think you got robbed? Get in line! You will be watching from afar, we will be living here in neo-mega-Iceland. Go cry to another German, I'm sure your investment losses really suck but we as a group are somewhat inclined to see you as a crybaby, seeing as we're about to have a delicate could-be romance with failed state status.
Comrade Byzantine_Ruins Fri Apr 3 03:51:26 2009 CDT #
CRbot says:
The Latest from Mish:
Social Security: There Is No Trust; There Is No Fund
CRbot Fri Apr 3 04:06:47 2009 CDT #
Comrade Byzantine_Ruins says:
mp:
Tonight, I've come to the conclusion that the system is going to burn to the ground before they can put out the fire.
From what I an tell, they completely miss that the glbal ratcheting-up was all an artefact of the bubble. They're all dutifilly hacking at the first order problems, not realizing it's a cargo cult to a "norm" that was really part of the problem that precipitated the crisis. They see a credit panic and a readjustment of the terms of credit, but not why.
They have already spent too many resources fighting the initial crisis to structure a response -- by the time they gain the institutional capacity to perceive the credit bubble, they will be comitted to strategies that are conceptually orthagonal to successful solution paths. Not much of an oberservation -- they are patently entangled in the politics of stimulus now.
Concrete stimulus -- for the world! -- for the win! Yammering hammered global boffins have decided the matter. If only it were as simple as a global PR blitz! Africa would bloom. Israel and Palestine would discover a thousand years of peace. The Iranian nuclear crisis, neaatly defused.
The Obama administration enjoys its own messianic hype as much as the Bush administration did. As with the Bush administration, they will find that it's a bit hard to navigate in the real world when your eyes are fixed on your own rising star.
Comrade Byzantine_Ruins Fri Apr 3 04:12:53 2009 CDT #
Comrade Byzantine_Ruins says:
It doesn't exactly push out population because contrary to zoned mansions, the luxury units are towers that replaced tenements.
I think you need to tend closely to the income distribution pattern of a city. If it gets inauthentic, you get the hazard of false diversity that's actually increasing your correlation to risk, rather than giving you the economic depth and resilience associated with urban vibrancy.
I think the Five Boros are verging on pushing all the New York boys into Hackensack and getting peopled entirely by the genetic chimera love child of Tim Geithner and Paris Hilton's sugar glider. Obviously, rhetorical, but, I think it's a serious issue. You can turn your city into a mall and get to be the next GGP.
Comrade Byzantine_Ruins Fri Apr 3 04:29:48 2009 CDT #
1 currency now [yogi] says:
I love malls, because of course I had never had access to one growing up. What luxurious shopping space. We've lost some edge, but live and let live lives. We still have buildings reserved for starving artists and actors.
Parent Post
1 currency now [yogi] Fri Apr 3 04:47:29 2009 CDT #
1 currency now [yogi] says:
Certainly the system can't be fixed without first addressing moral hazard. There will be no confidence if it looks like cheaters prosper. Tax structure is fungible, when the credit runs out.
1 currency now [yogi] Fri Apr 3 04:38:20 2009 CDT #
Ho Lee Kow says:
History has shown that it takes about three generations of wheeling-dealing to destroy a the political and social institutions built over many generations more.
There's nothing new under the Sun, and the destruction the Bankocrats are now consummating in the US echoes very closely their previous achievements in Venice, Amsterdam, NYC '29, London and Latin America.
Ho Lee Kow Fri Apr 3 04:59:53 2009 CDT #
1 currency now [yogi] says:
The FDIC is taking public comments on the "Legacy Loans" Program at their website until April 10. Take a chance. At least let them know we're not all dopes.
LLPComments@FDIC.gov <LLPComments@FDIC.gov>
1 currency now [yogi] Fri Apr 3 05:15:25 2009 CDT #
nova says:
@mp
I came to the conclusion they were going to keeping fixing problems until everything was smoking rubble awhile ago. Not because I am smart, rather, because I like reading history.
Nobody got any smarter. The problems are not different. The only thing I see that is different is the speed and complexity.
Then again, for the time, the German railroad mobilization plan used in 1914 was incredible.
nova Fri Apr 3 05:44:25 2009 CDT #
Anonymous says:
April 3 (Bloomberg) -- U.S. Federal Reserve Chairman Ben Bernanke is delivering what he promised five months ago, record- low mortgage rates and a refinancing boom that’s putting cash in consumers’ pockets. (once again converting their homes into ATMs)
http://www.bloomberg.com/apps/news?pid=20601087&sid=afWhr0TgBSk0&refer=home
Anonymous Fri Apr 3 07:03:39 2009 CDT #
CRbot says:
The Latest from Yves:
Guest Post: Ontario Teachers' Crashes and Burns in 2008
CRbot Fri Apr 3 07:11:59 2009 CDT #
ATM card and $19 in the bank says:
Apologies if this is a repost. From a Reuters story on banks gaming the PPIP:
Spencer Bachus, the top Republican on the House financial services committee, told [Financial Times] that he would introduce legislation to stop financial institutions "gaming the system to reap taxpayer-subsidized windfalls."
Bachus added it would mark "a new level of absurdity" if financial institutions were "colluding to swap assets at inflated prices using taxpayers' dollars," according to the paper.
http://www.reuters.com/article/newsOne/idUSTRE5320OK20090403
ATM card and $19 in the bank Fri Apr 3 07:14:26 2009 CDT #
CRbot says:
The Latest from Ritholz:
NFP: Understanding the Lag
CRbot Fri Apr 3 07:16:10 2009 CDT #
Pavel says:
"Nobody got any smarter. The problems are not different. The only thing I see that is different is the speed and complexity.
Then again, for the time, the German railroad mobilization plan used in 1914 was incredible."
People haven't changed, perhaps for tens of thousands of years. Why should their response to crisis change?
Pavel Fri Apr 3 07:26:43 2009 CDT #
shill says:
Look past the fan fare of the 663,000, think of it this way.
663,000 more family's hungry
663,000 more family's not paying their mortgages
663,000 more family's sleeping in tents.
In the what? Richest country in the world?...How dare you even say those words.
If your lucky and working, we are the working poor, and then you have the poor to poorest.
Going to get real interesting around here in 6 months, real interesting.
shill Fri Apr 3 07:37:09 2009 CDT #
CRbot says:
New Thread: Employment Report: 663K Jobs Lost, 8.5% Unemployment Rate
http://www.calculatedriskblog.com/2009/04/employment-report-663k-jobs-lost-85.html ( 0 comments ...You could be FIRST! )
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CRbot Fri Apr 3 07:41:49 2009 CDT #
Anonymous says:
<i>People haven't changed, perhaps for tens of thousands of years. Why should their response to crisis change?</i>
Congratulations, you are now the classical definition of a Conservative.
Also, that's the best argument for why the study of historiography, and not project management, is the key to successful rule. Technocrats carefully pick through the available options and pick the same wrong choice any educated, sophisticated thinker would.
Not that project management or mastering the technicalities of rule isn't important, it's essential, but it's just a small part of what you need to know to rule, which is mostly about humans and long pedantic lists of classic errors.
Anonymous Fri Apr 3 07:45:30 2009 CDT #
END